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Quality Companies, with Good Dividend Yields – A Successful Strategy

Without doubt, the most significant economic development of 2013 has been the transformation of economic policy in Japan. The authorities have planned a massive monetary injection, combined with a fiscal stimulus and other reforms to encourage growth. Unlike previous attempts by the Japanese to fight their way out of deflation, the size of the package and the determined manner in which it has been implemented, has surprised nearly all observers.

There are clearly still difficult structural issues, which haven’t gone away but the effects of the package, combined with a much weaker yen and the consumption tax that is expected next year, which should bring forward expenditure, could be significant. We forecast 1.5% GDP this year and next, both a little above consensus forecasts.

In the US, we see reasonable growth ahead, despite the tightening of fiscal policy, as the economy appears to have built up useful momentum. Following recent revisions, it appears that employment has shown steady growth this year and the housing market continues to display a healthy recovery. We are looking for 2.0% GDP in 2013 and a further pick-up to 2.5% in 2014.

Eurozone economic activity remains very weak due to fiscal austerity and credit constraints. The recent softening of French activity is an increasing concern, and shows that the region’s problems are not confined to the periphery. Germany is also proving less of a positive factor than was previously the case, and is suffering from euro appreciation against some important competitors. We expect a fall in eurozone GDP of 0.5% in the current year, followed by some recovery to 0.5% growth in 2014. The UK just managed to achieve positive growth in Q1 and we retain our forecast for a 1.0% increase in GDP for the year as a whole. The weak eurozone has hit the UK’s trade balance, but a moderately surprising level of employment growth, a fall in oil prices and the Chancellor’s budget stimulus to the housing market should help consumption. We look for expansion next year of 1.5%.

Our forecasts for a pedestrian global economic recovery lead us to favor quality companies, with good dividend yields, in the more defensive areas. This strategy has been successful and consequently businesses with these profiles have become fairly expensively rated relative to other areas. We continue to favor this broad stance, but we have looked selectively to add to some of the more cyclical stocks, which have underperformed, as we seek value.

Equity markets have continued to show resilience despite a mediocre corporate reporting season and slow economies. We believe this is due to markets continuing to display relatively attractive levels of valuations and on account of the impact of global quantitative easing. This makes low risk investments increasingly unattractive and pushes liquidity into other assets. While valuations remain satisfactory, economies show some recovery and easy money continues, we believe it is right to remain above benchmark in equities.

Government bonds on the other hand have moved to unattractive yields and we have underweight holdings. At some point, yields will rise but it may not be imminent as central banks will endeavor to keep yields low to encourage growth. We continue to see better value in corporate and emerging market debt. These asset classes are enjoying healthy fundamentals and buoyant inflows, as investors search for higher yields.

AXA IM appoints Lawrence Remstedt as Director of Institutional Development and Relations

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In this role, Mr. Remstedt will be in charge of institutional business development and relationships in the U.S. AXA IM has built a significant foundation in the U.S. market through two of its most well-established expertises – High Yield in the Fixed Income arena and AXA Rosenberg in the Equity arena. Mr. Remstedt, along with the other members of the sales team, will cover the U.S. and play a key role in broadening AXA IM’s client relationships. Most recently, Mr. Remstedt served as Portfolio Manager at AXA Rosenberg.

“We are thrilled that Lawrence is taking on this new role as AXA IM sharpens its presence in the U.S.,” said Xavier Thomin, Head of AXA IM U.S. “Lawrence has a deep understanding of AXA IM based on his tenure within the AXA IM family and has exceptional experience across asset classes. His experience within the investment team will bring insights and value to this role. In addition, he has successfully placed mandates in U.S. fixed income, global and U.S. high yield, alternatives and various equity strategies. These credentials fit with AXA IM in a meaningful way and we look forward to expanding current client relationships and developing new ones in the U.S.”

Remstedt said, “I’m looking forward to this new expanded role. AXA IM has direct experience in managing liabilities and has developed sophisticated expertise across asset classes to address some of the key issues facing investors today. For example, AXA Rosenberg’s SmartBeta approach has evolved from over seven years of managing volatility for clients.”

Mr. Remstedt’s career spans 24 years in the investment management industry, during which he has focused on developing and servicing institutional clients with extensive U.S. relationships. Prior to joining AXA Rosenberg, Lawrence served as a director of business development for American Century Investments from 2003 to 2008; and prior to that he was in a business development and client service role at Citigroup Asset Management for over nine years, including three years based in London.

Mexico’s reforms could add 1.5% to GDP growth, according to AllianceBernstein

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The signing of an addendum to the Pacto por México and the launch of a banking reform proposal suggest a solution to the country’s interparty political dispute. According to a research note twitted by AllianceBernstein, they also reinforce the commitment to much-needed structural reforms, creating a constructive economic and financial outlook.

On Tuesday, May 7, Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto and representatives from the three largest political parties—the ruling PRI and opposition PAN and PRD—signed an addendum to the Pacto por México (PPM). This new accord rekindled the multiparty compromise to implement a series of ambitious policy reforms throughout Mexico’s economy. These reforms were initially included in the original PPM, which was signed last November.

A Likely Boost to GDP Growth

According to AllianceBernstein’s calculations, Mexico’s potential gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate is currently near 3.5% annualized. “The enactment of a wave of reforms seems likely to lift that GDP cruising speed by at least 1.5% annualized over the medium term, and gradually contribute to rising per capita incomes”, points out the research, adding that the opening of the energy and telecom sectors to competition is likely to lure foreign direct investment inflows bolstering foreign investment, which has been lagging that in other Latin American nations and providing support for peso-denominated assets.

Finally, AllianceBernstein thinks the chances are good for Mexico’s sovereign-debt rating to be further upgraded. Fitch recently upgraded Mexico, and Standard & Poor’s shifted its rating outlook to positive from neutral in March. They wouldn’t be surprised to see further upgrades this year and in 2014.

Strategic Imperatives for Asset Managers

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A transformation of the asset management industry is taking place as traditional guideposts are replaced by a new set of market demands. Economic, technological, behavioral and demographic macro trends are driving the need for firms to re-evaluate their strategies and business models. This paper presents a thematic introduction to the issues the industry is facing, the key implications to asset managers, and the questions firms should be asking to best adapt their strategies and take advantage of these new and emerging industry demands.

The five key macro trends are highlighted below:

Rise and inter connectivity of the emerging markets
Demographic change
Social and behavioral change
Technological change
Rise of state directed capitalism

Deutsche Bank appoints Jerry W. Miller as Head of Asset & Wealth Management Americas

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Deutsche Bank announced today that Jerry W. Miller has been appointed Head of Asset & Wealth Management Americas, effective immediately.

Miller is based in New York and reports to Michele Faissola, Head of Asset & Wealth Management. He joins the Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management Executive Committee and will chair the division’s America’s Executive Committee. Miller will also join the Deutsche Bank North America Executive Committee, led by Jacques Brand, Chief Executive Officer of Deutsche Bank North America.

Miller has extensive leadership experience in both asset and wealth management. From 2006 to 2010 he worked at Morgan Stanley, first leading the Central Division of the Global Wealth Management business, then as President and CEO of Van Kampen Investments. Before that he spent more than two decades at Merrill Lynch, ultimately as a member of the senior leadership team at Merrill Lynch Investment Managers.

He joins Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management from Lightyear Capital LLC, a private equity firm, where he was a Senior Advisor responsible for the acquisition of financial services companies, with a focus on investment management and wealth management firms.

Michele Faissola said: “Jerry is a talented leader and a highly respected figure in the industry. I am delighted that a professional of his caliber shares our excitement about the opportunity we have in the Americas and the quality of solutions we offer clients. Under his leadership, we will continue to expand our Americas business, giving more clients the chance to benefit from our global asset and wealth management expertise.”

Morningstar Reports U.S. Mutual Fund Asset Flows Through April 2013

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Morningstar, Inc, a leading provider of independent investment research, today reported estimated U.S. mutual fund asset flows through April 2013. While April inflows for long-term mutual funds stood at a healthy $37.8 billion, they continued to moderate from levels seen earlier this year. Inflows for U.S. equity funds slowed to $895 million, their lowest intake this year. Despite tepid interest in core, intermediate-term bond funds, taxable-bond funds overall took in $19.4 billion to mark their 20th consecutive month of inflows. Morningstar estimates net flow by computing the change in assets not explained by the performance of the fund. Click here for a full explanation of Morningstar’s methodology.

Additional highlights from Morningstar’s report on mutual fund flows:

International-equity funds saw the second-strongest inflows among category groups, with $8.4 billion. Relative to assets, alternative funds had the strongest organic growth rate among category groups, taking in $3.8 billion.
The bank-loan category attracted more assets than any other category in April, leading the taxable-bond category group for the third consecutive month. Assets in the category have risen 30 percent for the year to date.
Although taxable-bond funds have led all category groups in 2013, top asset-gathering categories within the group have shifted. Inflows for intermediate-term bond, high-yield bond, and emerging-markets bond funds have slowed from levels seen in 2012, while bank-loan and nontraditional bond funds have gained ground.

Within the U.S. equity category group, investors continued to prefer index funds and the value style over growth. Including exchange-traded funds, active U.S. equity funds had outflows of $5.2 billion, compared with inflows to index funds of $9.6 billion in April.

Argentina down to the lower level of liquidity, according to the MSCI Frontier Markets Index

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MSCI Inc, a leading provider of investment decision support tools worldwide, including indices, portfolio risk and performance analytics and corporate governance services, announced today the results of the May 2013 Semi‐Annual Index Review for the MSCI Equity Indices – including the MSCI Global Standard, MSCI Global Small Cap and MSCI Micro Cap Indices, as well as the MSCI Global Value and Growth Indices, the MSCI Frontier Markets and MSCI Frontier Markets Small Cap Indices, the MSCI Global Islamic and MSCI Global Islamic Small Cap Indices, the MSCI Pan‐Euro and MSCI Euro Indices, the MSCI US Equity Indices, the MSCI US REIT Index, as well as the MSCI China A Indices. All changes will be implemented as of the close of May 31, 2013.

MSCI Global Standard Indices: Sixty securities will be added to and 61 securities will be deleted from the MSCI ACWI Index. The three largest additions to the MSCI World Index measured by full company market capitalization are Zoetis A (US), Telefonica Deutschland (Germany) and Biomarin Pharmaceutical (US). The three largest additions to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index measured by full company market capitalization are Shin Corporation PCL (Thailand), Suzano Papel E Celulose (Brazil), and Oil India (India).

MSCI Global Small Cap Indices: There will be 372 additions to and 334 deletions from the MSCI ACWI Small Cap Index.

MSCI Global Investable Market Indices: There will be 348 additions to and 311 deletions from the MSCI ACWI IMI.

MSCI Global All Cap Indices: There will be 411 additions to and 195 deletions from the MSCI World All Cap Index.

MSCI Global Value and Growth Indices: For the MSCI ACWI Value Index, the largest additions or style changes from growth to value will be United Technologies Corp (US), BASF (Germany) and Altria Group (US). For the MSCI ACWI Growth Index, the largest additions or style changes from value to growth will be Berkshire Hathway B (US), Walt Disney (US) and Bank of America Corp (US).

MSCI Frontier Markets Indices: There will be five additions to and five deletions from the MSCI Frontier Markets Index. The three largest additions to the MSCI Frontier Markets Index are Flour Mills Nigeria (Nigeria), Union Bank Nigeria (Nigeria) and Irsa ADR (Argentina).

There will be 31 additions to and 22 deletions from the MSCI Frontier Markets Small Cap Index.

Following a deterioration of liquidity in the Argentinean, Omani and Croatian equity markets, Argentina and Oman will be reclassified from the “Average Liquidity” to the “Low Liquidity” category, and Croatia will be reclassified from the “Low Liquidity” to the “Very Low Liquidity” category.

In addition, MSCI will introduce a new standalone country index for Palestine as part of the May 2013 Semi-Annual Index Review. The MSCI Palestine IMI Index will include one Standard and three Small Cap constituents.

MSCI Global Islamic Indices: Twenty Seven securities will be added to and 64 securities will be deleted from the MSCI ACWI Islamic Index. The three largest additions to the MSCI ACWI Islamic Index are Danone (France), PPR (France) and McGraw-Hill Cos (US). There is one addition to and one deletion from the MSCI Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries ex Saudi Arabia IMI Islamic Index.

MSCI US Equity Indices: There will be three securities added to and five securities deleted from the MSCI US Large Cap 300 Index. The three additions to the MSCI US Large Cap 300 Index are Sirius XM Radio, LinkedIn Corp A, and Cerner Corp.

Eighteen securities will be added to and 13 securities will be deleted from the MSCI US Mid Cap 450 Index. The three largest additions to the MSCI US Mid Cap 450 Index measured by full company market capitalization are Hartford Financial Services, TD Ameritrade Holding Co and Boston Scientific Corp.

Ninety securities will be added to and 49 securities will be deleted from the MSCI US Small Cap 1750 Index. The three largest additions to the MSCI US Small Cap 1750 Index measured by full company market capitalization are Bio-Rad Laboratories A, Washington Post Co B and CBOE Holdings.

There will be 44 additions to and 45 deletions from the MSCI US Micro Cap Index.

For the MSCI US Investable Market Value Index, there will be 207 additions or upward changes in Value Inclusion Factors (VIFs), and 202 deletions or downward changes in VIFs. For the MSCI US Investable Market Growth Index, there will be 228 additions or upward changes in Growth Inclusion Factors (GIFs), and 200 deletions or downward changes in GIFs.

MSCI US REIT Index: There will be five additions to and no deletions from the MSCI US REIT Index.

MSCI China A Indices: There will be 18 additions to and 57 deletions from the MSCI China A Index. The three largest additions to the MSCI China A Index are Bbmg Corp A, Avic Capital Co A and Shenzhen O Film Tech A. There will be 90 additions to and 16 deletions from the MSCI China A Small Cap Index.

United States is identified as the best market for fund investors and South Africa the Worst

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Morningstar today released its Global Fund Investor Experience report, which assesses the experiences of mutual fund investors in 24 countries across North America, Europe, Asia, and Africa. Morningstar’s evaluation of investor-friendly practices in fund markets worldwide identified the United States as the best market for fund investors based on criteria such as investor protection, transparency, fees, taxation, and investment distribution, while South Africa scored the worst. This year’s report also includes first-time reviews of fund investor experiences in Korea and Denmark.

“We launched the first Global Fund Investor Experience report in 2009 to examine the treatment of mutual fund shareholders in 16 countries with the goal of advancing a dialogue about best practices worldwide. Since that time we’ve had numerous conversations with regulators and investment companies in multiple countries about their existing policies and ways to improve,” John Rekenthaler, vice president of research for Morningstar, said. “Working with our analysts around the world, we expanded our survey to 24 countries this year”.

Morningstar researchers evaluated countries in four categories: Regulation and Taxation, Disclosure, Fees and Expenses, and Sales and Media. Morningstar weighted the questions and answers to give greater importance to factual, empirical answers as well as the high-priority issues of fees, taxes, and transparency. Morningstar assigned countries a letter grade for each category and then added the category scores to produce an overall country grade. The report’s authors gathered information from available public data and from Morningstar analysts.

Below are the overall country grades, from highest to lowest scores and then in alphabetical order:

United States: A
Korea: B+
Netherlands: B
Singapore: B
Taiwan: B
Thailand: B
China: B-
Denmark: B-
Germany: B-
India: B-
Norway: B-
Spain: B-
Sweden: B-
Switzerland: B-
United Kingdom: B-
Australia: C+
Belgium: C+
Canada: C+
France: C+
Italy: C+
Japan: C
Hong Kong: C-
New Zeland: C-
South Africa: D

The United States garnered the highest score for the third time with a top grade of A. While the United States is not a leader in the area of Regulation and Taxes, it has the world’s best disclosure and lowest expenses. South Africa, in contrast, received the lowest grade largely because of poor disclosure practices. The new countries reviewed in this year’s report—Korea and Denmark—earned grades of B+ and B-, respectively.

New Zealand showed the largest improvement from the 2011 study rising to a C- from a D- because of positive regulatory changes and an encouraging expansion of disclosure requirements. Morningstar anticipates that the New Zealand government’s ongoing review of all fund regulations will result in even more improvements and investor-friendly practices in the years to come.

Among the key findings of the study:

Bans on advisor commissions are spreading around the world. In the UK, the Retail Distribution Review (RDR) has already brought such a ban into effect, while similar moves are underway in Australia and the Netherlands.
While the U.S. and European fund markets are roughly similar in size, U.S. investors pay significantly lower fees than European investors.
Fund companies in most countries continue to treat the names of portfolio managers as trade secrets, leaving investors no way to determine who is responsible for a fund’s success or failure.
Australia and New Zealand do not require funds to publicly disclose full portfolio holdings, while France, South Africa, Korea, and the UK only disclose holdings to current owners.

To read Morningstar‘s complete Global Fund Investor Experience report, click here.

TD Ameritrade Launches New ETF Knowledge Center

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Building a diversified portfolio of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) just got simpler and more efficient, thanks to the launch of a new ETF Knowledge Center from TD Ameritrade, Inc. (“TD Ameritrade”), a broker dealer subsidiary of TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation.

“The ETF market has expanded tremendously over the past two decades”

TD Ameritrade’s new ETF Knowledge Center arms retail investors with greater education and information on ETFs, as well as insights on key ETF investment strategies as they relate to current market environments. Plus, investors can test their knowledge of ETFs by taking a quick pulse quiz.

“When it comes to investing for the long term, many Americans still aren’t doing nearly enough to pursue their intended goals. Our new ETF Knowledge Center is designed to help investors make choices in a way that eliminates extra clicks, provides objective research more directly and makes building a portfolio more visual and intuitive,” said Marco De Freitas, head of products for TD Ameritrade.

A sampling of content in the ETF Knowledge Center includes video tutorials, articles and announcements about ETFs from the basics to in-depth specialty topics, such as:

“The ETF market has expanded tremendously over the past two decades, leaving investors with more choices and greater potential opportunity than ever. But, it also leaves them with a lot of questions about how to navigate the changing landscape,” continued De Freitas. “With the addition of new and different types of ETFs and the expansion of commission-free offerings, TD Ameritrade recognizes the need to help investors understand important aspects of ETFs, like liquidity, more easily identify whether ETFs are right for them, and choose ETFs for their investment strategy.

Julius Baer´s AUM amounted to CHF 220 billion, an increase of 16% from the CHF 189 billion at the end of 2012

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At the end of April 2013, Julius Baer Group’s assets under management (AuM) amounted to CHF 220 billion, an increase of 16% from the CHF 189 billion at the end of 2012. This includes approximately CHF 24 billion from Merrill Lynch’s International Wealth Management (IWM) business outside the US, which Julius Baer is in the process of acquiring. Total client assets grew by 12% to CHF 309 billion.

Julius Baer is targeting to acquire between CHF 57 billion and CHF 72 billion of AuM from IWM over the next two years. The approximately CHF 24 billion AuM from IWM reported at the end of April 2013 comprise CHF 11 billion AuM of Merrill Lynch Bank (Suisse) S.A. in Geneva which was acquired on 1 February 2013 as well as approximately CHF 13 billion AuM from the IWM businesses in Uruguay, Chile, Luxembourg and Monaco, which were transferred to Julius Baer on 1 April 2013. In relation to the latter four locations, the client custody relationships are at this point still on the platform of Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML). In line with the transfer mechanism communicated last year, the revenues related to these client assets are allocated to Julius Baer, and Julius Baer is charged platform allocation costs by BAML. Starting in July 2013, the client custody relationships of these legal entities will also be transferred (in stages) to Julius Baer and booked on the Julius Baer platforms. At those points in time Julius Baer will pay BAML the agreed acquisition value (1.2% of transferred AuM), and the BAML platform allocation charges will cease.

Outside the acquisition impact, the increase in AuM in the first four months of 2013 was driven by a positive market performance, a positive currency impact, as well as net new money. Net inflows in the first four months 2013 were volatile and, on an annualised basis, somewhat below the Group’s medium-term target range. Julius Baer continues to have a positive view on the potential for inflows from the growth markets. However, total group net new money in 2013 will be impacted by the implementation of Switzerland’s final withholding tax agreements with the UK and Austria as well as the ongoing self-declarations by clients in other European countries (as continued to be recommended by Julius Baer); as a consequence, net new money for the full year 2013 could be close to the lower end of the 4-6% medium-term target.

Including the IWM businesses transferred in February and April 2013, the gross margin in the first four months of 2013 was 98 basis points (bps) and the cost/income ratio* improved to below 70%, compared to 71.6% achieved by Julius Baer in the second half of 2012 (when no IWM businesses had been transferred yet). The improvement in the cost/income ratio resulted despite the fact that the transferred IWM businesses currently operate at a higher cost/income ratio than the Group average and despite the fact that cost synergies are only expected to be realised at a later stage in the integration process. Between the principal closing of the IWM transaction on 1 February 2013 and the end of April 2013, on a net basis more than a hundred IWM financial advisers have been transferred to Julius Baer. Excluding the transferred IWM businesses, Julius Baer achieved in the first four months of 2013 a gross margin of 99 bps, an increase of 5 bps from the 94 bps level achieved in the second half of 2012. This recovery was driven by an improvement in client activity.

Julius Baer remains very well capitalised. At the end of March 2013, the Group’s BIS total capital ratio (under Basel III) stood at 27.5% and the BIS tier 1 ratio at 25.6%, well above the targeted floors of 15% and 12%, respectively.Julius Baer Group’s detailed financial results for the first half of 2013 will be published on 22 July 2013.