Jesús Olmos, responsable de las operaciones para España de KKR. La firma de capital riesgo KKR abre oficina en Madrid
Leading global investment firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. L.P. (together with its affiliates, “KKR”) today announced KKR has opened an office in Madrid, Spain.
Johannes Huth, head of KKR Europe, said: “We have built our investment track record in Europe by combining local knowledge with our global industry expertise and relationship network. The opening of our Madrid office builds further on this way of operating. The office will serve the executives from the KKR investment and operational teams, who evaluate investment opportunities and support investments in Spain.”
Jesus Olmos, head of KKR’s Spanish operations and head of KKR’s infrastructure team for EMEA, said: “I am delighted to announce the opening of KKR’s office in Spain in my hometown of Madrid. We have been investing in Spain since 2010 and our new local office will support our goal of offering our partnership, long-term capital and global industrial expertise to Spanish companies.”
Over the past three years, KKR has invested in excess of $1.2 billion in Spain. The company’s most recent Spanish investments include Inaer, the onshore helicopter service, Saba Infrastructuras, a leading operator of car parks and logistics parks, Uralita, the building materials company, and PortAventura, the amusement park and tourist resort. Of KKR’s more than 80 private equity portfolio companies, 18 have operations in Spain, employing over 7,000 people. KKR’s Spanish portfolio companies operate across a number of industry sectors, such as IT, energy, chemicals, bio-medics, pharmaceutical, education and intellectual property.
KKR has offices in 19 cities across the globe, including New York, London, São Paulo, Hong Kong and Mumbai.
In an exclusive interview with the newspaper, El Financiero, picked up by Funds Society, Ignacio Saldaña Paz, CIO of Afore XXI Banorte, confirmed that they are preparing to award Schroders and BlackRock with two mandates worth almost 9,632 million pesos.
Last summer the afore launched two calls: one for equity and one for commodities. The decision was not an easy one for the afore’s financial director. “All the bids were highly competitive and it was very difficult to make a final decision, but ultimately, the determination was reached based on size, global relation, and experience.”
Saldaña explained that these management companies shall receive 1.75% of the assets under management, which according to Consar’s December figures amount to 9.632 million pesos ($ 725 million). As for the election process, the executive concluded that they decided to concentrate on two management companies, two contracts, and start off from there.
Meanwhile, and after hearing the news, Javier Orvañanos, CIO of Afore Banamex, which was the first afore to award mandates, told Funds Society that “Schroders and BlackRock are good managers. Workers affiliated to Afore Banamex have been successful investing through these industry leaders.” In this regard, BlackRock‘s Samantha Ricciardi pointed out to Funds Society “We are very excited to have participated in another afore’s selection process.”
Analyzing the Calls in Commodities
With the equity mandates already awarded, the afore is now analyzing the calls for commodities and in March they will disclose the names of the winning bidders, who will receive up to 3% of assets, which amounts to 16,513 million pesos (about 1,242 million dollars).
Saldaña added that Afore XXI Banorte must now continue with the regulatory process to finalize the contracts and accomplish their funding. The executive expects to deliver the resources by midyear.
In turn, Consar’s president, Carlos Ramírez Fuentes, referred to the mandates awarded as a positive step because it “allows the afores greater diversification for workers’ savings, and naturally, in an environment like the current financial market, diversification is absolutely necessary, and this is the vehicle which will help to make this happen. We already have the experience of the first mandate, which I believe has had favorable results in terms of diversification. I welcome the fact that other afores are looking to use this vehicle.”
Meanwhile, Javier Orvañanos, CIO for Afore Banamex, the only Afore which has funded a mandate, points out that it is their pleasure to have led the way to a method which will benefit workers by allowing “the access by affiliated workers in Mexico to specialized fund management firms which will improve the risk-return ratio on investments abroad.”
Photo: Daniel Schwen. Fabiano Cintra Is Appointed Head of Itaú’s ETF Distribution
Itaú Asset Management has decided to entrust the commercial distribution of its family of ETFs, called It Now, as well as other index products, on a single professional. The new head of distribution is Fabiano Cintra, who, according to Institutional Investor, will work on the distribution of these products from now on, both for the institutional segment and for the retail sector.
This is a newly created position, as to date these functions in Itaú were divided between the coordinator of indexed products, Tatiana Grecco, and the institutional business manager, Labate Cosmo.
Cintra, a trained engineer, joined Itaú in 2010 to initially operate the assets’ internationalization Project. Within the bank, Cintra has worked in the areas of offshore product development and corporate distribution.
He specialized in Finance at the London School of Economics and Political Science and has also acquired consulting experience working for Camfed, an English consultancy firm.
Nabil El-Asmar Delgado, responsible in Spain.. New York Life Investments Completes Acquisition of Dexia AM
New York Life Investments has announced that it has completed its acquisition of Dexia Asset Management, an international asset manager, with management centers in Brussels, Paris, Luxembourg and its investment boutique, Ausbil, based in Sydney, for EUR 380 million.
Dexia Asset Management joins New York Life Investments’ diversified family of investment boutiques, complementing its current capabilities in fixed income, equities and alternative investments and adds $100 billion in assets under management, bringing New York Life Investments’ total assets under management to $511 billion.
Naïm Abou-Jaoudé will continue in his role as chief executive officer and chairman of the Executive Committee of Dexia Asset Management and Paul Xiradis will remain chief executive officer of Ausbil. Yie-Hsin Hung, in addition to her current role as co-president of New York Life Investment Management and chairman of New York Life Investment Management International, becomes chairman of the Board of Directors of Dexia Asset Management. Naïm Abou-Jaoudé joins the Executive Committee of New York Life Investment Management International as vice chairman.
Nabil El-Asmar Delgado will continue with the responsibility for the Client Relations activity at Dexia AM’s Spanish branch, which serves the company’s Spanish, Portuguese and Andorran clients. And, according to market sources, he will assume also the responsibility for Latin American clients.
“Expanding our asset management business in Europe and Australia represents a significant growth opportunity for New York Life to become a key player in the global asset management arena, adding important scale and geographical diversity to our business,” said John Kim, vice chairman, New York Life. “As with our other boutiques, Dexia Asset Management will preserve the integrity of its investment processes, portfolio management teams and distinct culture, while at the same time benefit from the strength, resources and capital of New York Life.”
“The acquisition of Dexia Asset Management, a robust organization with a diverse array of products and broad distribution adds quality investment solutions for our clients on a global basis, and represents a milestone in the growth of New York Life Investments. We warmly welcome Naïm Abou-Jaoudé and his entire team to the New York Life family and look forward to fully supporting the firm’s future endeavors,” he added.
“I am delighted to take on the role of chairman of the Board, working with Naïm Abou-Jaoudé to bring New York Life’s significant resources to Dexia Asset Management,” said Yie-Hsin Hung, co-president of New York Life Investment Management and chairman of New York Life Investment Management International.“With the backing of New York Life, Dexia Asset Management has the opportunity to even better meet the needs of its clients with innovative products, strong performance, meticulous risk management and substantial resources, and do what it does best — being an excellent investment partner to its clients.”
“With our expanded business, our clients now have access to the breadth and depth of European and Australian markets through best-in-class products, global capabilities and tremendous talent and insight on the ground,” Yie-Hsin Hung added.
New York Life Investments has been growing rapidly, more than doubling assets under management to $400 billion in the five years since the financial crisis by employing a successful multi-boutique approach. Third party assets have risen to $189 billion as of December 31st, 2013, from $68 billion at year end 2008. The investments business has become a vital part of New York Life, significantly expanding the company’s profile and its profitability and contributing to its financial strength. The Dexia Asset Management acquisition continues the strong growth of New York Life Investments.
Photo: Sasha Kargaltsev . Brian Ward Joins Colliers International To Lead Americas Capital Markets Group
Colliers International has announced that industry investment and financing veteran Brian Ward will take the reins as President of its Capital Markets group in the Americas. With nearly 30 years of financial, legal and investment management experience in commercial real estate, Ward will be responsible for delivering comprehensive strategic services and innovative debt and equity financing arrangements to meet the needs of real estate owners, developers, advisors, lenders and investors in Canada, Latin America, and the United States.
“We are excited and proud to add Brian Ward as a member of the Colliers leadership team and a key component of our global capital markets strategy,” said Dylan Taylor, Chief Executive Officer | Americas at Colliers International. “Brian has shown a winning ability to satisfy the needs of both borrowers and capital providers at every stage of the property ownership cycle. He has successfully grown his clients’ businesses with his talent for designing, negotiating and implementing financial structures of all types and sizes.”
Ward will head Colliers’ industry-leading capital markets team serving the Americas region, focusing initially on New York and other major markets. He will also be responsible for expanding the Institutional Investment practice group in the U.S., and for developing additional investment services lines in the Americas to focus on specialized sectors across the entire capital structure.
Prior to joining Colliers International, Ward was National Director of capital markets for Institutional Property Advisors, and before that served as Chief Investment Officer at Hendricks-Berkadia. For the previous seven years, he was Managing Principal and Chief Executive Officer for Orion Residential and its successor company, Aspen Residential. Ward also had been Global Executive Director of Olympic Investors, an institutional investment management firm specializing in apartment, condominium and mixed-use assets. Ward is a member of the Urban Land Institute and the National Multi Housing Council, and has been an active member of the Washington State Bar Association since 1987.
Photo: Wladyslaw. Europe Stands Better than the U.S. When Talking About High Yield
Aberdeen’s high yield team gives a brief overview of the high yield market and outlines the potential benefits of investing in the asset class.
What is your view on the market in 2014?
We have a positive outlook for European high yield. Issuance has been in excess of €80 billion in 2013 and we expect over €100 billion in new issuance this year. New issues continue to be generally used by companies for refinancing purposes to reduce the cost of capital and lower the maturity profile of outstanding bonds. Both of which should help defaults to remain within the 2%-3% range versus the long-term historical average of 4%-5%.
Consensus total returns for the asset class are around 3% to 5%. Delving deeper, income yields are forecast to be approximately 7%. Investors could however experience some capital loss due to bonds being priced above their initial call price.
Lower levels of market liquidity as a result of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) tapering actions and banks taking less risk on market-making positions may however cause European high yield returns to be more volatile in 2014.
Compared to U.S. high yield, what advantages do you see in the European high yield market?
European high yield has a number of favorable attributes over its U.S. counterparts. Firstly, the average credit rating within the European high yield market is BB compared to B in the U.S. – in part this is due to the number of ex-investment grade ‘fallen angels’ and downgrades that have occurred in European credit over the past few years. Secondly, European high yield has a comparatively lower average duration than the U.S. high yield market making it less susceptible to changing interest rates. Finally, Europe offers a higher spread per rating bucket. This is mainly due to the fact benchmark European sovereign bonds trade at much lower levels than their U.S. counterparts making the extra spread available within Europe more attractive than the U.S.
Moving beyond fundamental differences, the U.S. is showing more promising signs of growth than Europe at present with monetary policy normalization actions due to be initiated in January by the Fed. U.S. government bonds have risen as a result causing the spread available on U.S. high yield bonds to compress. Meanwhile, in Europe, lower growth means that government bonds are likely to stay lowerfor a longer period. In addition, company-level earnings are generally improving. Opportunities are therefore arguably more attractive in European high yield in the current environment.
Market consensus sees Europe will be out of recession in 2014. How will this benefit European high yield?
Europe is indeed moving out of recession however growth is still weak at around 1% with southern European countries showing the greatest promise. Nevertheless, improving economic growth in the region should help to improve confidence and encourage greater spending and investment. Companies will in turn benefit fromhigher sales and earnings growth, including those within high yield.
Will periphery countries continue to be a drag on investors’ appetite for European high yield?
Despite demand remaining weak, we are fairly positive on the long-term prospects of the periphery. Progress continues to be made at a sovereign level with focus shifting from short-term market access issues to the implementation of long-term structural reforms, political stability and debt sustainability. Improving conditions at a sovereign level have reduced the risk of peripheral countries exiting the Euro area and abetted any further sovereign level credit rating downgrades in the short term.
Investor optimism towards future growth potential within the periphery is reflected in the narrowing spread between peripheral and core European high yield bonds. A cautious approach is however still advisable – domestic demand continues to be weak and peripheral based companies that rely on domestic earnings will likelycontinue to underperform in the short to medium term.
Why should investors include European high yield as part of their portfolio?
European high yield can potentially benefit a wider portfolio by providing:
Attractive income potential – in the current low yield environment European high yield bonds can still provide a more attractive risk return profile than the widerbond spectrum.
Return potential in a low growth environment – while low global growth is a concern, high yield companies do not need robust growth to perform well. If anything, stagnant growth can help to promote cautious corporate behavior, which can support the value of high yield bond.
Downside protection – sub-investment grade bonds have a comparatively higher coupon component and shorter maturity profile than other fixed income instruments. This helps to lower the bonds ‘duration’ or the sensitivity of the bonds price to a change in interest rates, providing an element of downside protection. The outcome of the bond is still binary, that is its coupons and principal are paid or the bond defaults, but it is less likely to be effected by a change in interest rates than higher quality bond issues.
Diversification benefits – high yield bonds have a low historical correlation to government and investment grade bonds.
Photo: Mattbuck. Julius Baer’s AUM Up 34% to CHF 254 Billion, Thanks to IWM’s Acquisition
Julius Baer’s assets under management (AuM) grew to CHF 254 billion last year ($280 billion), an increase of CHF 65 billion, or 34%. This included CHF 53 billion from Merrill Lynch’s International Wealth Management (IWM) business, which Julius Baer is in the process of acquiring.
The IWM integration developed successfully during 2013. Based on current expectations, it is envisaged that by the end of the integration process in early 2015 the Group will achieve the asset transfer target, towards the lower end of the CHF 57 bn to CHF 72 bn range, which would thereby also reduce the maximum total transaction price.
“After a period of intense preparations, the implementation of the IWM integration process paid off in 2013, resulting in an impressive transfer of clients, assets and highly-rated IWM professionals to Julius Baer. In 2014, our focus will shift to improving the cost efficiency of the rapidly grown business, while not losing sight of our ambition to continuously deliver top-quality advice and services to our growing international base of sophisticated clients”, said Boris F.J. Collardi, Chief Executive Officer of Julius Baer Group Ltd.
Outside the contribution from IWM, the increase in AuM was mainly the result of net new money of CHF 7.6 billion or 4% and a positive market performance of CHF 7 billion, partly offset by a negative currency impact of CHF 3 billion. Net new money was driven by continued net inflows from the growth markets and from the local business in Germany, while the inflows in the cross-border European business were more than offset by tax regularisations of legacy assets. Assets under custody came to CHF 93 billion, up by 6% from the CHF 88 billion at the end of 2012. Total client assets amounted (including assets under custody) to CHF 348 billion, an increase of 26% since the end of 2012.
According to the figures published by the company, operating income rose to CHF 2,195 million, an increase of 26%, in line with the growth in monthly average AuM (to CHF 229 billion). The full-year gross margin for the Group (including the IWM businesses acquired during the year) therefore remained at 96 bps.
In 2013,adjusted operating expenses went up by 29% to CHF 1,611 million. The increase in expenses was substantially attributable to the transfer of the IWM businesses in 2013. The total number of employees grew by 1,669 full-time equivalents (FTEs) to 5,390 FTEs, a rise of 45%, including a net 1,220 FTEs from IWM. The number of relationship managers grew by 391 FTEs to 1,197 FTEs, of which 365 FTEs from IWM. As a result, the adjusted personnel expenses went up by 20% to CHF 984 million. Adjusted general expenses rose by 54% to CHF 536 million. This increase was significantly driven by a shift from a CHF 17 million net release to a CHF 46 million net charge for valuation allowances, provisions and losses. Adjusted general expenses included CHF 35 million of costs related to the US tax situation (2012: CHF 38 million), of which CHF 15 million was a provision for expected future legal fees. As a result, the adjusted cost/income ratio improved to 71% (2012 restated: 73%). Excluding the expenses related to the US tax situation, the adjusted cost/income ratio was 70% (2012 restated: 71%).
Adjusted net profit, reflecting the underlying operating performance, went up by 19% to CHF 480 million and adjusted earnings per share by 12% to CHF 2.24.
IFRS net profit declined by 30% to CHF 188 million, as the improvement in operating results was more than offset by the impact (as planned) of the IWM-related integration and restructuring expenses, the ongoing amortisation of acquisition-related intangible assets, and a provision in relation to the withholding tax treaty between Switzerland and the UK.
The Group’s capital position remained solid, with a year-end BIS total capital ratio of 22.4% and a BIS tier 1 capital ratio at 20.9%.
Wikimedia CommonsFoto: SRGpicker, Flickr, Creative Commons.. Cerca de 19.500 profesionales superaron en diciembre el Nivel I del Programa CFA
CFA Institute, the global association of investment professionals that sets the standard for professional excellence and credentials, reports that 43 percent of the 45,693 candidates that took the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Level I exam in December 2013 have passed and taken the first step to joining the next generation of highly educated and ethical investment professionals. In June and December of 2013 a total number of 93,195 candidates sat for Level I of the CFA Program, a globally recognized, graduate level curriculum that links theory and practice with real-world investment analysis, and emphasizes the highest ethical and professional standards.
The results come at a time when investment professionals worldwide report greater optimism over economic prospects for the coming year, but do not express confidence that the integrity of capital markets is improving, according to the CFA Institute 2014 Global Market Sentiment Survey (GMSS). The dedication shown by investment professionals taking the CFA Program demonstrates a strong desire to build a more trustworthy industry and develop a culture where ethical practice is just as important as investment performance.
“The financial community is dealing with a crisis of investor trust, and industry education at all levels is a critical part of rebuilding that trust,” said John Rogers, CFA, president and CEO of CFA Institute. “The next generation of investment professionals is instrumental in shaping the future of finance, and each one of these successful candidates has the opportunity to build the kind of industry culture that puts investors first and better serves society.”
To earn the CFA designation, candidates must pass all three levels of exam (successful candidates often report dedicating in excess of 300 hours of study per level); meet the work experience requirements of four years in the investment industry; sign a commitment to abide by the CFA Institute Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct; apply to a CFA Institute society; and become a member of CFA Institute.
The CFA Program curriculum is firmly grounded in the knowledge and skills required every day in the investment profession and covers ethical and professional standards, securities analysis and valuation, international financial statement analysis, quantitative methods, economics, corporate finance, portfolio management, and performance measurement. Level I exams are offered in both June and December and Levels II and III are offered only in June. It takes most candidates more than three years to complete the CFA Program, and requires dedication and determination.
The December 2013 Level I exam was administered in 93 test centers in 70 cities across 39 countries worldwide. Examples of countries and territories with the largest number of candidates that took the Level I CFA exam last December are the United States (10,317), Mainland China (7,823), India (4,179), Canada (3,554), the United Kingdom (3,136), Hong Kong (1,992), Singapore (1,529), South Africa (1,058), and United Arab Emirates (1,030).
Photo: chensiyuan. AZ Legan and Lanin Partners Join Forces To Launch a Latam Long/Short Equity Strategy
AZ Legan, the Brazilian partnership between Azimut Group and Legan Gestora de Recursos (“Legan”), have signed a partnership agreement with Latam specialist Lanin Partners to launch a Brazilian equity fund with a mandate to invest pan-regionally across the most important Latin America markets.
Legan is an asset management company specialized in low volatility strategies, with R$620mn AuM (equivalent to €193 mn) as at 30th November 2013. Legan’s flagship funds, Legan Low Vol and Legan Special, have been constantly ranked among the best Brazilian funds in their categories by Standard & Poor’s, Institutional Investor and Exame.
Lanin Partners is an independent asset manager specialized in Latam equities, with offices in Santiago, Chile, and Sao Paulo, Brazil, and currently manages only non-Brazil based funds with US$95mn in AuM (€71mn). Since its launch in June 2008, Lanin Latam long/short strategy has accumulated a positive return. The strategy is currently invested in Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia and Peru.
Lanin Partners will bring to the partnership the on-the-ground presence, key to conduct in-depth research throughout the region thanks to a team with extensive experience in managing portfolios of Latam stocks. In particular, Sonia Villalobos, CFA, managing partner, has more than 25 years of experience analyzing companies in Latin America. She has worked in Chile and in Brazil, in both research and fund management roles, including five years as Head of Research at Banco Garantia. Sonia was the first person to obtain the CFA Charter in Latin America.
Alessandro Citterio, Lanin’s other managing partner, has pioneered the hedge fund industry in Chile, after having worked 17 years in London in several financial institutions, such as Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse, Nomura and Bankers Trust.
The Brazilian fund, which will initially receive seed money from Azimut and Legan, will be structured as a “multimercado long and short” fund. It will be one of very few equity long/short funds in Brazil with exposure to the rest of the Latam region.
Sonia Villalobos says: “Expanding the geographical mandate of the fund doubles its investable universe, compared to investing in Brazil only. That creates many more investment opportunities and makes the return less dependent on the Brazilian market.”
Alessandro Citterio, founder of Lanin Partners, comments: “We expect this Brazilian fund to be only the first of many launched in partnership with AZ Legan. We are a Latam equity specialists, but AZ Legan’s knowledge of the Brazilian market is key for the success of our project together.”
Wikimedia CommonsPhoto: CEphoto, Uwe Aranas. Time to Switch from Emerging Market Debt to Equities
Emerging market equities are now more attractive than the debt of these nations, prompting a change of strategy at Robeco Asset Allocation. Debt values in emerging markets had a rough year in 2013, hurt in particular by currency devaluations, but the worst now seems to be over for stocks from these markets, says Lukas Daalder, Portfolio Manager Global Allocations.
And as the debt sector may get worse this year, due to a raft of economic problems in these countries, Daalder believes the time is right to take action. The Robeco Asset Allocation team is selling emerging market debt to make the sector ‘underweight’ in its portfolio and buying emerging equities to increase its allocation to ‘overweight’.
The team manages more than EUR 20 billion of assets in multi-asset portfolios for institutional and retail clients from its office in Rotterdam.
“Emerging market debt posted one of the weakest performances of the various fixed income asset styles last year, as well as the worst full-year result on record,” says Daalder. “Yields rose, currencies weakened and returns disappointed.” The wide devaluation of emerging market currencies has been a particular problem because it cuts returns when the bond values are translated into euros for the fund.
Three reasons why emerging debt will underperform
Daalder and his colleagues believe there are three reasons why emerging market debt will continue to underperform, due to economic factors, devaluing currencies, and the relative volatility of the sector against others.
Economic factors: growth is still weak in emerging markets. China has problems with the structural rebalancing of its high-growth economy, while lower commodity prices will reduce revenue for those nations reliant on natural resource sales. Meanwhile, stubbornly high inflation is persisting in some countries, particularly Indonesia and Brazil.
Currency problems: “We in general expect the downward pressure on emerging currencies to continue for now,” says Daalder. “Weaker economic fundamentals and higher current account deficits mean emerging market countries may allow their currencies to weaken even further as this will help their export sectors.”
High volatility: “Investors who had entered the market expecting stable and predictable bond-like returns found out the hard way that due to the currency component, emerging market debt volatility lies markedly above volatility for the high yield sector,” Daalder says. “Emerging market debt does not yet price in a sufficient risk premium for this unwanted volatility, so we have now decided to cut emerging debt to underweight.”
Volatility: high yield offers a better risk premium. Source: Bloomberg
In the multi-asset arena, the key question for the team is which asset is preferable if you start selling emerging debt, and another form of fixed income was briefly considered. “Within our tactical asset allocation methodology, we compare emerging market debt with high yield, which make sense as they are both fixed income categories,” says Daalder.
“However, given that we are already quite overweight in high yield, and given the relative illiquid nature of this asset class, we are hesitant to increase our position further. Instead, we prefer to switch from emerging market debt to equities.” So the money raised from selling emerging debt will be spent on equities, he says.
Three reasons for preferring emerging stocks
Indeed, there are three reasons to switch into emerging market stock markets, due to more favorable currency factors, the fact that equities are quite cheap, and better exposure to any improving outlook, says Daalder.
Currency factors: “Equities are to some extent hedged for a decline in currencies, in the sense that a weaker exchange rate boosts the earnings outlook for export-oriented companies,” says Daalder. “The case of Japan is a clear example: the weaker yen has had a high correlation with earnings, as well as the performance of the Nikkei.”
Inexpensive values: “Whereas we think there is no sufficient premium in emerging market debt, stocks from these regions are currently cheap compared to the pricing seen in developed markets. In other words, risks are better aligned with potential rewards,” he says.
Improving outlook: “If the emerging market outlook does improve (contrary to what we currently believe), we expect to see a better return in equities than in bonds,” says Daalder. Given the difference of the composition of the Emerging Equity benchmark (with much bigger weights for Taiwan and Korea), Daalder also expects this turnaround to materialize earlier in equities than in bonds.
