Investment Process: An Evolutionary Game

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El proceso de inversión: un juego evolutivo
. Investment Process: An Evolutionary Game

In the last five years, there has been an increasing appetite for risky assets. Giordano Lombardo, Group Chief Investment Officer at Pioneer Investments, talks in its latest letter to investors about Investment Process going forward.

At the beginning, it was a consequence of the search for yield and return enhancement in a low interest rate environment. More recently, it translated into a deeper exploration of yield opportunities in the riskier side of risky assets, featuring high-yield bonds and small-cap stocks.

According to Lombardo, two key questions for the investment strategy going forward are: is it still worth being long risky assets? And, is the investment approach adopted so far the most appropriate for meeting investors’ needs and new market challenges?

“While we felt it was appropriate to take a decisive long exposure to risky assets until last year, now we believe that building more balanced and diversified portfolios would be a better strategic choice for the scenario unfolding”, states Lombardo.

There are basically two “active” ways to improve the expected portfolio returns: make the overall exposure to markets more diversified (manage the “beta” component), and increase the portfolio manager’s ability to generate extra-returns versus the benchmark, while keeping a strong focus on risk (act on “alpha” generation).

Starting with beta diversification, Lombardo explains that there are basically three ways to work along this line:

  • Broadening the range of asset classes as it happens, for example, with Multi-Asset strategies.
  • Moving into illiquid asset classes.
  • Adopting a risk-parity approach.

According to Pioneer, just adding asset classes in a diversified portfolio is not a wise option when correlation among them is high, as they all move in the same direction. For illiquid assets, such as hedge funds or private equity, Pioneer notes that taking volatility as a sole measure of risk is not appropriate and may be misleading.

In essence, the beta diversification is a valuable option to enhance returns “and it is going to be more important going forward, because of low expected returns.” However, Lombardo highlights that it has to be played carefully because it brings some risks (liquidity, leverage) that are not captured by traditional risk measures such as volatility.

For this reason, he believes that working to improve the alpha component is extremely important. “This approach emphasizes the role of portfolio construction, based on an efficient combination of multiple low-correlated alpha strategies, and changes completely the way in which a portfolio is built and visualized.”

As an example, Lombardo considers a fixed-income portfolio with an aggregate bond index as a benchmark: “the traditional way to represent it is a combination of government bonds and investment-grade bonds, broken down into countries, credit rating and duration. With a portfolio construction approach, the same portfolio is visualized as a combination of low-correlated alpha strategies.”

Pioneer Investments has spent the recent years strengthening the culture of alpha generation through proprietary portfolio construction tools and risk budgeting. Pioneer Investment thinks this framework will become even more crucial in the new challenging investment landscape. “We see our investment approach not as something set in stone but as an evolving process based firmly upon our active, research-driven and risk-aware investment culture.”

Pioneer currently adopts this approach in a large part of their Fixed Income and Multi Assets teams, and is committed to extend it further into equities and new capabilities that they will be designing to meet current and new investors’ needs.

You may access the full CIO Letter through this link.

Cartica Files Lawsuit against Alvaro Saieh, CorpGroup and CorpBanca

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Cartica demanda en EE.UU. a Álvaro Saieh, CorpGroup y los responsables de Corpbanca
Judges Walk (London). Cartica Files Lawsuit against Alvaro Saieh, CorpGroup and CorpBanca

Cartica Management has filed a Complaint in the United States District Court of the Southern District of New York against the following defendants: CorpBanca S.A., its controlling shareholder, Álvaro Saieh, Saieh’s holding companies (CorpGroup), and CorpBanca’s directors, its Chief Executive Officer, and its Chief Financial Officer.

The Complaint asks the Court to declare the Defendants in violation of anti-fraud provisions and disclosure requirements of the United States Securities Exchange Act of 1934, and to enjoin the closing of the Banco Itaú Chile–CorpBanca combination. Cartica Management, LLC, through separate managed investment funds, collectively beneficially owns approximately 3.2% of the outstanding common shares of CorpBanca (including shares represented by American Depository Receipts).

The Complaint alleges that Saieh and CorpGroup, together with CorpBanca, its Directors, CEO and CFO, committed fraud in the orchestration and execution of an agreement to sell CorpBanca to Itaú Unibanco (the “Itaú Transaction”). The Complaint specifically alleges that Saieh used fraud to extract a control share premium for his majority stake in CorpBanca as well as numerous other short- and long-term benefits that accrue to him, his cronies and private companies to the detriment of all minority shareholders. As part of this fraudulent scheme, Saieh and the other Defendants also failed to file any disclosures regarding the sale that are required of major company investors effecting a change in control.

Saieh and CorpBanca made public disclosures in November 2013, December 2013, and January 2014 that they were receiving and evaluating offers to enter a corporate transaction to benefit all shareholders equally. Defendants also assured investors that they were seeking a deal that would secure maximum value for shareholders and would benefit all shareholders equally. In truth, instead of acting consistent with their disclosures, Defendants were actively negotiating, designing, and securing a transaction that gives control of CorpBanca to Itaú Unibanco in exchange for a rich array of valuable short- and long-term benefits that accrue singularly to Saieh and to no other shareholders.

The Complaint articulates a clear motive for Defendants’ fraud—namely, the financial bailout of Saieh and CorpGroup. Saieh and CorpGroup control several companies, including the publicly held bank, CorpBanca, and privately held supermarket chain, SMU. Throughout the past year, Saieh and CorpGroup suffered significant losses in connection with SMU, which itself lost almost $1 billion. SMU’s financial failures in turn tainted publicly held CorpBanca, driving its credit ratings and stock price downwards. In response to CorpGroup’s and SMU’s financial spiral, Saieh, along with the other Defendants, devised Defendants’ fraudulent scheme to recoup Saieh’s losses and refill CorpGroup’s coffers via the sale of CorpBanca.

After entering the Itaú Transaction, Saieh and the other Defendants compounded their fraud through further deliberate and coordinated misstatements, omissions, and delayed and incomplete disclosures.

The agreements with Itaú make clear that Saieh—through a parade of inequitable special benefits accruing only to Saieh and the other Defendants—effectively extracted the control share premium he promised shareholders he would not pursue, and accomplished a bailout for Saieh, CorpGroup, and SMU. Saieh used the Itaú Transaction to give himself a windfall that includes, among other benefits: hundreds of millions of dollars in cash from a sale of CorpBanca Colombia shares; a below-market-rate loan of almost one billion dollars; call options that bear no downside risk but provide huge potential for profit over the next five years; effective guaranteed dividends for CorpGroup alone over the next eight years that come at the expense of the post-merger bank’s growth and the restriction of its capital structure; tag-along, first offer, and share liquidity rights; a right to share in future Itaú Unibanco business opportunities in certain Latin American countries; and a prestigious job for his son as Chairman of the post-merger bank.

Based on these actions, the Complaint alleges that Saieh, CorpGroup, CorpBanca, and its Directors, CEO, and CFO violated Section 10(b) of the Exchange Act and Rule 10b-5 thereunder by disseminating or approving materially false and misleading statements and by employing devices, schemes, and artifices to defraud CorpBanca shareholders in connection with effecting the Itaú transaction. It further alleges that Saieh, his holding companies, and the Directors, CEO, and CFO violated the antifraud provisions of Section 20(a) of the Exchange Act. The Complaint also alleges that Saieh and CorpGroup violated Section 13(d) of the Exchange Act.

The lawsuit asks the court to enjoin the Itaú transaction in order to (i) prohibit Defendants from benefiting from the fruits of their deception, (ii) ensure the Bank’s capital is not artificially restricted for years to come by Saieh’s preferential deal terms, and (iii) shift the great, if unquantifiable, value of the special benefits Saieh anticipated from the deal back to all CorpBanca shareholders on an equal basis—as Defendants originally led minority shareholders to believe would occur.

“This attempt to rob minority shareholders has gone on long enough,” said Cartica’s Managing Director, Teresa Barger. “We have brought the fraudulent acts of Álvaro Saieh, CorpGroup and CorpBanca before a Federal court because they, along with Itaú, have so far failed to take advantage of the opportunity to voluntarily call off this disastrous deal and replace it with a transaction that benefits all shareholders equally. Today’s action, however, is simply the first of many we intend to take to defend the rights of minority shareholders, including holding Directors of CorpBanca liable for the harm they have caused and will cause the minority shareholders.”

Cantor Fitzgerald WP and Wilshire FM Engage in Strategic Partnership

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Cantor Fitzgerald WP and Wilshire FM Engage in Strategic Partnership

Cantor Fitzgerald Wealth Partners, an affiliate of Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. serving the private wealth management market, and Wilshire Funds Management, the global investment management business unit of Wilshire Associates Incorporated, have entered into a strategic advisory partnership.

WFM will advise CFWP’s Investment Management Committee and collaborate with CFWP to deliver customized investment advisory solutions for CFWP’s high-net-worth clients. Wilshire Funds Management will also work closely with CFWP advisors to conduct in-depth manager research utilizing its proprietary research process and analytical tools. In addition, Wilshire plans to deliver a suite of outcome-oriented model portfolios that includes traditional and non-traditional asset classes and investment strategies.

“CFWP is committed to providing best in-class investment services, centered on objective advice and carefully selected solutions that enable our advisors to help their clients achieve their unique financial goals,” said Stan Gregor, President and Chief Executive Officer of Cantor Fitzgerald Wealth Partners. “We look forward to applying WFM’s insights to provide a customized and exclusive offering for our clients, while aggressively expanding our platform through acquisitions of wealth management companies, Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs) and some of the industry’s finest and most successful Financial Advisors.”

Cantor Fitzgerald and Wilshire have more than 100 years of combined experience serving some of the world’s largest institutional clients, and have expanded their breadth of services to focus on the unique needs of individual investors.

Cantor Fitzgerald Wealth Partners and Wilshire Funds Management both strive to impart institutional best practices and to empower financial advisors with sophisticated research and advisory support that foster scale and improve investment outcomes for individual investors,” said Jason Schwarz, President of Wilshire Funds Management. “Our shared vision and purpose makes this partnership very exciting.”

Aberdeen Completes Acquisition of SWIP and Enters into a Long-Term Relationship with Lloyds

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Aberdeen concluye la compra de SWIP y establece una relación estratégica con Lloyds
Martin Gilbert, Aberdeen AM's CEO . Aberdeen Completes Acquisition of SWIP and Enters into a Long-Term Relationship with Lloyds

Aberdeen Asset Management has completed the acquisition of Scottish Widows Investment Partnership (SWIP) from Lloyds Banking Group.

The addition of SWIP’s approximately €167 billion of asset under management will result in Aberdeen becoming the leading European independent asset management business with €393 billion under management. The acquisition combines Aberdeen and Swip’s strengths across fixed income, real estate, active and quantitative equities, investment solutions and alternatives.

The acquisition in exchange for a 9.9% shareholding in Aberdeen and potential top-up payment of £100 million (valued in total at around £550 million) also provides a valuable platform for a long-term strategic relationship with Lloyds across its Wealth, Insurance, Commercial Banking and Retail businesses.

Commenting on the completion, Martin Gilbert, Chief Executive of Aberdeen said: “We are pleased to have completed this important acquisition as planned and on schedule, so that we can now commence the task of integrating SWIP into the enlarged Aberdeen Asset Management Group. We will immediately begin a structured migration of funds and platforms, whilst continuing to deliver an excellent investment performance for both existing and new clients.

“The enlarged group is well placed to meet the needs of a diverse range of investors with a broad range of capabilities across both geographies and asset classes. We look forward to developing our new strategic relationship with Lloyds and, on behalf of everyone at Aberdeen, I would like to welcome our new colleagues from SWIP into the Group.”

Gulf States Are Increasingly Vulnerable To An Emerging Market Slowdown

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Gulf States Are Increasingly Vulnerable To An Emerging Market Slowdown

The Gulf States’ rising trade and investment links with emerging Asian markets increase their economic dependence on global growth and exposure to foreign shocks, say Standard & Poor’s economists in a report published today “Gulf States Are Increasingly Vulnerable To An Emerging Market Slowdown.”

Trade relations between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and Asia (excluding Japan) have grown substantially at the expense of Europe, the U.S., and Japan since 2005. This is mainly because emerging Asian countries’ demand for hydrocarbon commodities, the Gulf states’ main export, is rising. Meanwhile, growing unconventional energy production and energy efficiency in developed markets are reducing their import needs.

“GCC exports of goods to the EU, the U.S., and Japan fell to less than 30% in 2012 from 51% in 1995. Meanwhile, Asia is now the GCC’s largest export destination, accounting for 57% of total foreign sales,” said Standard & Poor’s economist Sophie Tahiri.

Despite these growing trade ties, the Gulf States have been largely unaffected by the recent capital outflows and declining asset values that emerging markets have experienced since the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it would start tapering. One reason for this is that GCC countries’ fiscal and trade surpluses make then largely immune to foreign capital outflows.

“Nevertheless, Gulf States would be vulnerable to a potential slowdown of growth in emerging markets, the report says. “A sharp slowdown in major emerging economies and an intensification of capital outflows, although not our baseline scenario, would affect GCC countries mainly through falling oil market prices,” said Ms. Tahiri.

We nevertheless expect that GCC states would implement fiscal expansion to support the national economy in a scenario of falling oil prices. However, Bahrain would be the most vulnerable Gulf country in such a scenario because it’s the only country already running a fiscal deficit, the report concludes.

Boris Espinoza Joins Citi Private Bank’s Miami Office

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Boris Espinoza Joins Citi Private Bank's Miami Office
Photo Miami: Marc Averette. Boris Espinoza on the right (Linkedin). Boris Espinoza Joins Citi Private Bank's Miami Office

Citi Private Bank announced today that Boris Espinoza has joined the firm’s Miami office as a Director and UHNW Private Banker, reporting to Luke Palacio, Southeast Regional Market Manager.

“As we continue our expansion in the South Florida region, we are delighted to welcome Boris to the team to help us reach more clients and deliver seamless service to the many multi-jurisdictional families who live here. With more locations in more cities around the world, we are the best positioned firm in this market to do so,” said Palacio.

Mr. Espinoza joins from JP Morgan where he was a Director and Private Banker. Prior to joining JP Morgan in 2010, Mr. Espinoza spent 12 years at ABN AMRO working in Sao Paulo, Buenos Aires, Miami and New York. While there, he held various roles in the Investment Banking division, most recently as a Director in the firm’s Debt Capital Markets group in New York.

Mr. Espinoza holds a B.S. from Stony Brook University and a MBA from the University of Miami.

Citi Private Bank is a recognized leader in this market for providing sophisticated wealth management and investment advice for the ultra-high net worth segment. I look forward to leveraging the full capabilities of the Citi platform on behalf of our clients by providing access to capital, compelling investment opportunities, cross-border wealth planning and by collaborating with Citi’s investment banking team.”

Threadneedle and STANLIB Join Forces to Offer Access to African Investment Strategies

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Threadneedle and STANLIB Join Forces to Offer Access to African Investment Strategies

The international investment manager Threadneedle Investments announces that it has entered into a promotion and referral agreement with South African investment manager STANLIB to introduce its clients globally to STANLIB Africa strategies. STANLIB will similarly offer African investors access to Threadneedle capabilities. STANLIB, which manages over US$45 billion for retail and institutional clients, specialises in South African and African investments across all major asset classes including property.

The agreement follows the announcement in August 2012, that STANLIB had selected Threadneedle to manage in excess of US$800 million in Global and Emerging Market equity and Global Balanced portfolios as part of its offshore investment range. Today, Threadneedle manages in excess of US$1 billion on behalf of STANLIB.

Strategies that Threadneedle will introduce include: Africa ex South Africa Equity, a strategy asset management footprint in Africa, Global Emerging Market Property and Direct Property investment opportunities in carefully chosen economically growing areas on the African continent managed by STANLIB. STANLIB will actively promote Threadneedle investment capabilities to African investors.

Michael Housden, Head of Middle East and Africa Distribution at Threadneedle comments: “We are delighted to be able to offer investors across the globe access to African strategies which invest in some of the fastest growing and still largely untapped markets in the world. We expect to see increasing demand from investors for exposure to Africa given the tremendous growth opportunities the continent offers. Equally we believe investors in Africa will be attracted to Threadneedle excellent track record of outperformance across asset classes”.

Dylan Evans, Head of International Business Development at STANLIB: “Economy is around $2.0 trillion and is expected to reach $2.6 trillion by 2020. Yet, very few of the largest 200 pension funds in the UK and Europe are known to have any dedicated exposure to Africa. Of course, Africa is not without its risks and high among these is political risk. Evidence of that was clearly apparent in North Africa in 2013, where political unrest led to volatile performances from both Egypt and Tunisia. However, a well-diversified African portfolio can be profitable for investors even when individual markets are under pressure, different African markets being driven by different dynamics”.

The outlook for 2014 is promising, with grow by around 5.5% in 2014, the average rate over the past decade faster than any other region in the world, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit2. An investment in Africa is certainly likely to be more volatile than in other markets, “but we believe Africa’s superior growth prospects and under- representation in investors’ portfolios create many opportunities for long-term investors”.

European Banks on Track for Strong Performance

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European Banks on Track for Strong Performance
Banco Central Europeo. Foto: Jurjen_ni, Flickr, Creative Commons.. Los bancos europeos: en marcha hacia la rentabilidad

ING Investment Management (ING IM) maintains its positive outlook for European banks with the sector set to stabilise through valuation support, improved profitability and a less volatile economy in the Eurozone.

Nicolas Simar, Head of the Equity Value Strategies at ING IM said: “In terms of valuation support, most of them still trade at a discount versus their tangible book value which remains too cheap to ignore. The sector has been de-rated significantly over the last 5 years due to balance sheet repair. We have come to the end of this phase as most of them are comfortable from the Basel 3 capital requirement and will be able to grow their loan book in the future.”

In terms of improved profitability, ING IM expects the banks’ Return on Equity (RoE) to improve in a recovering Eurozone area with the expectation of generating a low double digit RoE over the next two to three years. At the same time, the investment manager sees a declining Cost of Equity (CoE) due to a decreasing sovereign spreads, which is especially pertinent to southern Europe. Therefore, the discount to book value will disappear in the next few years.

Nicolas Simar continues: “As the economy stabilizes within the Eurozone, rising PMIs including the periphery over the last 6 months should progressively lead to a stabilization in Non Performing Loans (NPL) and declining provisions that will support earnings growth for the sector.”

ING IM believes that we are entering a new cycle for Eurozone banks after 5 years of deleveraging and balance sheet repairs. As most banks do comply with the capital requirements from Basel 3, the investment manager highlights they can now focus back on shareholders’ returns by increasing dividends from a very low payout level. This currently stands at around or below 30% versus the long term average between 40-45%.

Nicolas Simar concludes: “While European banks do not currently offer a high dividend yield, their ability to increase it over the next two to three years is substantial and will attract more interest from investors.”

“The credit growth remains supportive in the US market which is very close to turning the corner in Europe. While we do recognize the Eurozone periphery still shows credit growth contraction, the change in credit growth has turned the corner, boding well for Italian/Spanish banks profitability prospects.”

Santander Acquires the Private Banking Business of BNP Paribas in Miami

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Santander adquiere el negocio de banca privada de BNP Paribas en Miami
Photo: Ricnava. Google Earth. Santander Acquires the Private Banking Business of BNP Paribas in Miami

As confirmed to Funds Society by sources familiar with the operation, Santander Private Banking has reached an agreement with BNP Paribas in Miami to take over its private banking division, with approximately $3 billion in assets under management.

The news was reported to the staff of both companies last Friday. On becoming aware of the transaction, Funds Society contacted Santander for further details; the company, however, refrained from making any comments.

BNP Paribas Wealth Management has decided to sell its activity in Miami as part of Wealth Management’s overall strategy to focus on markets where the bank has a retail banking presence or where its Wealth Management platform is more developed. BNP Paribas Wealth Management remains fully committed to the US through its Bank of the West franchise, as part of the Group’s plan in the US. Additionally, BNP Paribas Wealth Management remains fully committed to Latin America and other international markets”, sources from BNP commented to Funds Society.

It had been rumored for months that, following orders from Paris, the French bank had hung up its “For Sale” sign. Prior to Santander, Safra Bank, amongst others, had clearly shown an interest in BNP Miami, but it was the Spanish institution that finally reached an agreement of which the financial details have yet to be disclosed.

BNP Paribas Wealth Management’s workforce in Miami is headed by Eric Georges as president and CEO, and consists of 90 people, 20 of whom are bankers; these employees will join the staff of Santander Private Banking.

BNP Paribas has been offering wealth management services in Miami for Latin American clients since 1983. The Wealth Management division of BNP, in which private banking services are integrated, has more than 6,000 employees in 27 countries.

BNP Paribas’ portfolio consists mainly of Latin American clients. The transfer of portfolios for their integration in Santander will proceed according to the implicit consent of the client. BNP clients shall therefore be notified of the transaction, and, unless the client states otherwise, the transfer of portfolios will follow.

It should be recalled that last December Santander carried out a similar operation in order to acquire Latin American and Caribbean customers from Barclays Wealth & Investment Management, a business that the British bank controlled from Miami and New York; that portfolio was worth $5 billion at time of transfer.

 

Standing Out From The Crowd

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Standing Out From The Crowd
Léopold Arminjon, gestor del Henderson Horizon Pan European Alpha fund. Destacar entre la multitud

We were not surprised to see European equities perform strongly in 2013. Valuations started 2013 at very low levels and, with Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, committed to returning stability, investors allocated to equities again at the expense of their bond holdings – a theme that we expect to continue until interest rates return to more normal levels.

It is important to recognise, however, that the upwards move in markets in 2013 was driven largely by sentiment, in anticipation of faster growth in corporate profits for 2014. Companies now need to meet these expectations, with improving earnings acting as a catalyst to further share price gains, or there could be repercussions for European equities.

Improvements in the global economy are cause for optimism, but it is probably fair to expect a higher level of share price volatility in 2014. Indeed we have already seen evidence of this in the first three months of the year, with two stockmarket falls of over 5.0%, prompted by broadly disappointing results for the fourth quarter of 2013, US tapering-induced emerging market fears and, most recently, concerns over the Ukraine.

While stockmarket volatility and political uncertainty are not welcomed by investors they provide a good opportunity for long/short strategies – funds that are designed to make money from markets that go down as well as those that go up, although returns are not guaranteed. Long/short funds can quickly reduce their net exposure to equity markets, which can help to preserve client capital when markets are falling. Equally, when fear looks overdone, they can increase their exposure to individual stocks and subsequently benefit from any market rises.

Of the risks themselves, the developments in the Ukraine are clearly the most immediate. Economically, it makes no sense for either Russia or the West to allow the conflict to escalate. Putin has seen the Rouble depreciate considerably and the Russian equity market tumble. Equally, Germany is still thirsty for Russian energy supplies and will not want to risk the fragile recovery that is coming through in Europe.

A lesser-discussed, but equally important, factor for fund returns is stock pricing correlations. Following the global financial crisis, there was very little dispersion in price movements, indicating that investors were buying or selling primarily in response to macroeconomic news, rather than company fundamentals. Yet 2013 saw stock pricing dispersion notably higher, increasing the focus on the qualities or shortcomings of individual firms. And with correlations thus far remaining low in 2014, this supports our belief that stock selection will remain critical to generating a positive return for investors this year.

Léopold Arminjon, portfolio manager of the Henderson Horizon Pan European Alpha fund