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Asset Managers’ Budgets to Obtain Alternative Data Continue to Grow

Investment managers’ budgets for alternative data will continue to increase this year, consolidating the strong growth of the past two years, according to new research by Exabel and BattleFin, two platforms specializing in alternative data.

Around 85% of the investment managers and analysts surveyed in the global study state that their budgets will increase this year, and 33% foresee substantial growth, according to the report “Alternative Data Buy-side Insights & Trends 2025” by Exabel and BattleFin. This increase adds to the recent expansion of budgets. The study, which included fund managers in the U.S., the U.K., Hong Kong, and Singapore with a total of $820 billion in assets under management, revealed that 43% of respondents reported a budget increase of between 50% and 75%, while 36% indicated that their budgets grew between 25% and 50% during the period analyzed.

The report by Exabel, which was acquired by BattleFin in December of last year, identified that one of the key areas of budget growth is likely to be investment in third-party software systems for data analysis. Currently, 66% of the firms surveyed use third-party software as part of their solutions, compared with 51% that use internally developed systems and 51% that use systems provided by data vendors. However, the research also revealed that 59% of respondents still use basic tools and legacy systems, such as Excel and Tableau, to analyze alternative data.

This landscape appears to be changing: 85% of respondents predict that their use of third-party systems will increase over the next five years, and 15% expect a drastic increase in their adoption for data analysis. The main reason is their greater cost-effectiveness, mentioned by 87% of respondents. In addition, 62% believe that these systems offer a more consistent way of working with different types of data, while 52% consider them more effective than internal systems.

In fact, senior management at the firms surveyed supports the increase in budgets: 98% state that they are very or fairly committed to the use of alternative data for investment research. Likewise, 84% have a head of alternative data on their teams, while only 11% admit not having one.

When allocating budgets for the acquisition and management of alternative data, the survey revealed that approximately 62% of firms allocate between 25% and 50% of their resources to purchasing data, while 45% indicate that their firm allocates between 25% and 50% of the budget to technology and software. And 49% indicated that their firms allocate between 10% and 25% of the budget to hiring staff to analyze and manage alternative data.

In light of these results, Tim Harrington, CEO of BattleFin & Exabel, commented: “The demand for alternative data continues to grow globally, with investment managers increasing their budgets year after year both to acquire and to manage a growing variety of datasets. The main challenges include resource allocation, data standardization across different sources, and the use of third-party analytical tools. We are committed to harnessing the power of alternative data to deliver actionable insights and generate value. In today’s dynamic market environment, accessing high-quality data is crucial to gaining a competitive advantage and unlocking alpha.”

Below is a table showing how the firms surveyed distribute their budgets for the acquisition and management of alternative data.

Balanz USA Appoints Federico Francia as Head of Wealth Management

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

Barings experts present investment opportunities — Pixabay CC0 Public Domain

Balanz USA has a new key position: Federico Francia is the new Head of Wealth Management for its Latin America-focused wealth division based in Miami.

“In this role, Mr. Francia will lead the firm’s wealth management strategy across the Latin American region, further strengthening Balanz USA’s commitment to offering personalized investment solutions to its clients,” the Argentine-headquartered firm told Funds Society.

Federico Francia steps into his new role this February 2026, after working for more than eleven years at Puente Servicios Financieros, where he held positions such as Senior Financial Advisor (also in Miami), Team Leader, and Financial Advisor Private Banking.

“With more than 11 years of experience, today it’s time to say goodbye to Puente, a firm that allowed me to learn, grow, and develop in the Wealth Management industry. Thank you to all the colleagues, clients, and friends who accompanied me on this journey, both in Uruguay and the United States. It has been a true pleasure to share this path with you,” Francia shared on LinkedIn.

The new Balanz hire also worked at SURA Uruguay and HSBC, always in the wealth management sector.

The professional holds an MBA from EADA Business School and FINRA Series 66 and 7 licenses.

The Funds Society Managers Guide for the US Offshore Market Is Now Available

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

Funds Society launched the 10th edition of its Asset Manager’s Guide 2026 U.S. NRI (Non-Resident Investor), a reference tool for wealth management professionals in the offshore business. The guide offers an updated mapping of the non-resident asset management market in the United States, with a focus on UCITS investment solutions.

The publication brings together more than 115 international asset managers operating in the NRI segment through their UCITS offerings, including key contact information for private bankers, financial advisors, and other wealth management professionals.

In addition, the guide features exclusive content from 12 asset managers, outlining their value proposition and business strategy for the Americas region, providing deeper insight into their positioning and commercial approach.

To download the guide, click on this link.

Citi Predicts Up to $200 Trillion Annually in Digital Transactions

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

In April 2025, the Citi GPS report: Digital Dollars anticipated that it would be the moment for institutional adoption of blockchain technology, with stablecoins acting as a decisive catalyst in this transformation. One year after this prediction, recent events and data confirm that this revolution is occurring at a rapid pace, driven primarily by digitally native companies, technological advancements, and an increase in transactional activity.

The volume of stablecoin issuance has experienced remarkable growth, rising from approximately $200 billion at the beginning of 2025 to nearly $280 billion today. This momentum has led the Citi Institute to revise its projections for total stablecoin issuance in 2030, adjusting the base case to $1.9 trillion, up from the initially forecasted $1.6 trillion, and the optimistic scenario to $4.0 trillion, compared to the previous $3.7 trillion. This growth reflects both the partial relocation of U.S. dollar cash, domestic and offshore, and the gradual replacement of short-term international liquidity with stablecoins denominated in dollars and other local currencies, in addition to a boom in crypto ecosystem adoption and increased cryptocurrency trading.

A New Financial Ecosystem: Coexistence and Evolution

The evolution of digital assets such as stablecoins and bank tokens is marking a shift. However, far from representing a threat to the traditional financial system, these innovations contribute to reimagining and strengthening it. The reality points toward integration and coexistence of models.

Although stablecoins offer a valuable financial tool, especially for digital companies, investors, and households in emerging markets seeking an efficient and secure option, they are not a universal solution for all markets. In many countries, national payment systems already provide fast, secure, and low-cost solutions. In contrast, cross-border payments continue to present challenges that both fintechs and large banks are addressing through advanced technologies.

For certain market segments, bank tokens offer a simpler alternative aligned with traditional infrastructures, and transaction volumes using these tokens are expected to surpass those of stablecoins by 2030. Rather than competition, this diversity of formats represents progress toward smarter, more agile, and programmable finance.

Market Projections and Transactional Activity

The Citi Institute estimates that stablecoins could support nearly $100 trillion in annual transactional activity in its base-case scenario for 2030. In the optimistic scenario, this figure could double to $200 trillion, placing stablecoins at the center of the global financial infrastructure of the future.

At the same time, bank tokens, which combine the trust, familiarity, and regulatory security of traditional bank money, are projected to reach similar or even higher volumes. These tokens could play a key role in the financial ecosystem, especially in corporate transactions where institutional trust and regulation are fundamental.

Programmability and Efficiency: The Key for Corporate Treasuries

One of the most valued features for large corporations is the programmability of digital money, which enables real-time settlements and reconciliations, with built-in regulatory compliance at the point of transaction and significant friction reduction. Both stablecoins and bank tokens are positioned to offer these capabilities, which will attract growing interest from corporate treasuries seeking to optimize cash management and improve operational efficiency.

Dollar Dominance and Geographic Expansion

U.S. dollar denomination will continue to predominate in on-chain money volumes, generating incremental demand for U.S. Treasury bonds. Nevertheless, the relevant activity is not limited to the United States. Innovative financial centers such as Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates, and other emerging jurisdictions are undergoing rapid development in blockchain technology adoption, reflecting a diversified and global geographic expansion.

Context and Comparison With Traditional Flows

While the projected annual turnover figures for stablecoins and bank tokens, $100 trillion and over $100 trillion, respectively, may seem astronomical to the general public, in context they remain smaller compared to the daily flows handled by major banks, which range between $5 trillion and $10 trillion. This highlights the enormous growth potential of on-chain digital money, which still represents a fraction of total global payment volumes.

AI in 2026: Major Investments, Real Growth, and Healthy Corrections

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

The recent correction in the tech sector reflects more of an adjustment than a structural break in the AI investment cycle. In this sense, investment firms have no doubt: artificial intelligence will continue to be one of the most important drivers of technology and the economy this year. According to Nicolas Bickel of Edmond de Rothschild, major cloud companies and OpenAI are making historic investments in AI infrastructure, more than $1.6 trillion between 2025 and 2028. “These investments are already yielding results: AI is improving cloud services, e-commerce, and digital advertising, and many software companies that have adapted to AI are seeing growing interest in their products,” he notes.

However, as AI becomes more tangible, market corrections have also arrived. Although the S&P 500 had only dropped 3% from its highs as of Thursday’s close, the situation feels much worse. “That 3% loss is a combination of much steeper declines this year in areas that had attracted most assets, such as bitcoin (-49%), software giants (-25%), and the Magnificent 7 (-6%). Meanwhile, the shares of the other 493 companies have risen between 1% and 6% since the market lows in November, which is even more reassuring. We consider the current tech correction to be healthy, though not yet complete,” explains the Federated Hermes equities team.

A Healthy Correction

Although some experts compare the current situation to the year 2000, many argue that today’s conditions are significantly different: listed companies driving the current capex boom often have strong cash flows and the financial flexibility to invest, even if some of that spending ends up being misallocated. One such voice is Fabiana Fedeli, CIO of Equities, Multi-Asset and Sustainability at M&G Investments, who acknowledges that concerns about increased capex and software companies overpromising on AI-driven revenue are valid, but believes we are not at a turning point. In her view, this is more of a reset, as markets reassess their expectations.

“The speed of market movements has increased, amplifying volatility and contributing to the magnitude of the recent purge. These adjustments are now broader and faster than in previous cycles, and investors will need to sharpen their ability to distinguish noise from truly meaningful signals,” she adds.

For Fedeli, this is not the end of the AI bet, but rather an expansion of the opportunity set beyond the narrow group of large U.S. tech companies that have captured investor attention. “The race for AI is global, and while we still believe that some of the ‘enablers’ of AI, the hardware makers building the supporting infrastructure, still hold potential, we increasingly see opportunities among AI beneficiaries: companies across sectors like consumer, media, financials, materials, and industrials that are deploying AI to reduce costs, increase revenues, and optimize customer acquisition. Moreover, AI investment is global, and we must look beyond the U.S. market. That said, the current relative weakness of U.S. tech will offer active investors new opportunities, as broad-based innovation continues to show structural strength. This is a recalibration, not a trend reversal, and the main beneficiaries of the AI investment boom may not be the capex spenders, but those best positioned to leverage it,” says the M&G expert.

Meanwhile, Federated Hermes analysts expect the market shift toward smaller-cap and value stocks to likely continue for some time. One reason supporting this “healthy correction” view relates to the evolution of AI itself. For example, they explain that hyperscalers are beginning to move away from the “asset-light” model that once made them so attractive: high incremental margins, modest capital intensity, and extraordinary free cash flow generation. That landscape is changing quickly.

“In addition, the software sector faces a mix of serious issues that are underappreciated. First, many companies are still absorbing excess licenses sold during the remote work surge of the pandemic. Renewal cycles remain focused on optimization and downsizing, not expansion. Second, AI is threatening the traditional license-based model. And also, the market is broadening as companies outside the tech realm, which had previously led the market, are now improving,” they add.

Finally, Thomas Hempell of Generali AM acknowledges that the market can be volatile due to the concentration of investments in tech companies and their high valuations. But unlike the dot-com bubble of the 1990s, today’s growth is supported by real earnings. AI has enormous potential to transform businesses and boost productivity, even in an economic environment that remains favorable.

Outlook for This Year

These recent adjustments do not undermine the case for investing in AI. According to Paddy Flood of Schroders, the benefits of AI are not always immediately visible. Many companies are using it to make their services more efficient, from virtual assistants to personalized recommendations, without users paying for it directly. “Even if it’s not always seen, AI is already generating economic value throughout the tech chain,” says Flood.

Joe Davis, of Vanguard, notes that AI investment is still in its early stages, much like the early days of the internet or electricity. The next phase will depend on so-called “AI scalers”, companies with the resources to ramp up computing power, data storage, and large-scale AI models. These investments will drive not only technology itself but also related sectors such as semiconductors, data centers, and energy. This marks the beginning of a long-term transformation in the economy.

According to Johnathan Owen, portfolio manager at TwentyFour AM, after a year of AI hype, markets are starting to show discipline. The massive issuance of AI-linked bonds, which could reach between $1 and $3 trillion in the coming years, raises concerns about whether investors can absorb so much supply in such a short period. While demand remains strong, the timing and volume of these issuances could slow price growth and increase credit risks. Owen recommends focusing on essential assets like data centers and infrastructure, carefully evaluating debt levels and risks, as returns may take time to materialize.

Lastly, Mark Munro and Anthony Merola of Aberdeen point out that tech giants are increasingly turning to public bond markets to finance AI expansion, moving away from relying solely on cash flow or private capital. In just the past three months, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, and Oracle have issued billions of dollars in bonds. They compare the current pace of investment to the internet boom of the 1990s. According to them, the need for funding will continue to grow, driven by costly data centers and rising energy demand. For investors, this means tactical opportunities in short-term, high-quality bonds, while long-term funds will need flexibility to take advantage of major upcoming issuances.

Miami Adds a High-End Residential Project Inspired by Frida Kahlo

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

PMG and LNDMRK Development announced the launch of Frida Kahlo Wynwood Residences, a luxury residential development that will become the world’s first real estate project inspired by the Mexican artist, located in the heart of the Wynwood Arts District in Miami.

The project, designed by architect Carlos Ott in collaboration with CUBE 3, will feature 244 residences, ranging from studios to three-bedroom units, some of which will include integrated private offices, in line with the growing demand for hybrid spaces that combine living and working. PMG Residential will be the exclusive sales team for the project.

“Wynwood has long been at the center of Miami’s artistic community, driving a bold creative energy that reflects the fearless spirit of Frida Kahlo,” said Ryan Shear, managing partner at PMG. “This project brings together art, visionary architecture, and wellness to create a unique lifestyle aligned with the neighborhood’s identity,” he added.

Architecture, Design, and Wellness as the Pillars of the Project

The architectural design seeks a balance between strength and fluidity, with a sculptural aesthetic that engages with Wynwood’s artistic environment. “The architecture achieves a balance between softness and strength, with elegant curves that create a resilient, open, and deeply human form,” explained Carlos Ott.

The interiors will be handled by Cotofana Designs, and the residences will be delivered fully finished and furnished, with integrated kitchens, high-end appliances, bathrooms with custom furniture, and design solutions focused on functionality and comfort. Several units will include private balconies with panoramic views of the district.

One of the development’s standout features will be the incorporation of Baker Health, a personalized primary care and holistic wellness platform based in New York, which will open its first Florida location in the building. Residents will have access to on-demand medical care 24/7, according to the press release.

Frida Kahlo Wynwood Residences will offer a wide range of amenities focused on wellness and social living: a resort-style pool, landscaped outdoor areas, bar and lounge, thermal circuit with sauna and cold plunge pool, state-of-the-art gym, and common spaces featuring art installations curated specifically for the project. Additionally, it will offer flexibility for short-term rentals, a key feature for buyers and investors.

Located in one of Miami’s most dynamic neighborhoods, the development will place residents just steps away from Wynwood Walls, the Museum of Graffiti, galleries, restaurants, parks, and cultural venues, reinforcing its appeal to both local residents and international buyers.

Tailwinds for Co-Investments in 2026

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

As the private equity market has evolved alongside a variety of trends and dynamics, related to markets, valuations, deal sizes, and growing demand from LPs around the world, different ways of accessing private company opportunities have emerged. One structure that has gained significant prominence in recent years is co-investments, a category that still has room to gain further traction this year, according to various industry players.

Data from Preqin shows a global landscape where more than $200 billion has been raised across over 2,400 direct co-investment funds since 2005. Moreover, capital raised hit a record in 2024 with $33.2 billion, according to figures from Chronograph, and the topic has now entered the mainstream. In investment presentations at hotels, webinars of all kinds, and meetings with boards and clients… the topic of co-investments increasingly arises in the unavoidable conversation about private markets.

The market is shifting toward a more direct investment style in private equity assets. As highlighted by the United States Private Equity Council (USPEC) in a recent article, rather than relying solely on pooled commitments, many investors are seeking a more active role in deals and greater visibility into how value is being created.

According to the organization, the “dramatic rise” in co-investments reflects “strategic, structural, and market forces” that are transforming how LPs interact with funds. In this context, they identify five key drivers behind the phenomenon: fee efficiency, interest in greater control, selective access through scale, increased strategic allocation to co-investment strategies, and growing expectations for diversification.

Tailwinds

In addition to investor appetite, ongoing changes across private equity markets have supported the rise of co-investments.

On one hand, BlackRock notes that companies are staying private for longer, due to abundant private capital, regulatory and cost pressures in public markets, and a preference for sponsor support. As a result, the firm indicated in its 2026 alternatives outlook, “deal sizes have continued to grow, and interest rates are forcing sponsors to commit more equity in each transaction.”

HMC Capital shares this view, stating that it will take years to clear the long list of companies waiting for that golden exit window. “This will create strong multi-year opportunities for investors to provide liquidity to private equity, especially through secondaries, capital solutions, and co-investments,” the firm notes in a report dedicated to private equity.

In addition, the expectation that deal volume in the private equity market will continue to grow would further fuel the expansion of these structures. “The outlook for co-investments in 2026 is closely tied to overall deal activity: as private equity deal volume increases, GPs will allocate equity portions to LPs more frequently,” they add.

From the LPs’ perspective, this backlog will increase GPs’ capital needs. Managers, they forecast, will need to support their portfolio companies for longer, sell partial stakes, recapitalize holdings, or refinance existing structures. “This will create a steady flow of co-investment opportunities in the coming years,” HMC estimates.

Areas of Interest

Breaking down the expectations for robust interest in co-investments in 2026, there are some strategies and sectors that stand out as particularly attractive. In terms of sectors and themes, there are three major areas drawing market attention: healthcare, energy, and technology.

In the field of healthcare services and life sciences, international capital views the space as a strong vector to capture global trends. The expectation, outlines BlackRock, is that the sector will be driven by population aging and the growing efficiency of digital health platforms. Added to this are advances in biotechnology, notes the USPEC, along with specialty pharmaceuticals.

In energy, the growth vector comes from the energy transition. “The push toward a low-carbon economy is driving growth across renewables, storage, and decarbonization infrastructure,” BlackRock adds.

The third vertical, technology, is tied to the impact on company operations across sectors stemming from developments in areas such as cybersecurity, cloud infrastructure, and, famously, artificial intelligence. “Investors view these assets as important for long-term growth and portfolio diversification,” notes the USPEC.

In terms of structures, HMC sees the rise of mixed co-investment funds as a clear 2026 trend, a single portfolio with pooled assets from various institutional investors, focused on mid-life transactions. “For LPs, this can provide better underwriting visibility (of assets already owned by private equity) and, potentially, faster cash flow timelines and a less pronounced J-curve compared to primaries,” the Latin American firm notes.

Medical Real Estate and Private Equity in the U.S.: Viper Insight Is Born

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

The investment banking and strategic advisory firm exclusively specialized in the U.S. healthcare sector, Viper Partners, announced the launch of Viper Insight, a new division specialized in off-market medical real estate transactions, designed to connect healthcare asset owners with qualified institutional investors and buyers.

The initiative targets a segment that has been gaining traction among international investors and wealth structures with U.S. exposure: medical real estate assets with stable cash flows, low correlation, and a strong defensive component, traded outside traditional market channels.

Confidentiality, Access, and Transaction Control

Viper Insight focuses on off-market transactions, without public listing processes, in assets such as medical office buildings, ambulatory facilities, and properties controlled by medical groups. This approach allows sellers to preserve confidentiality while offering buyers access to opportunities that are not typically available on open platforms.

As explained by David Branch, founder of Viper Partners, the new division is built on a well-established network of relationships with both healthcare property owners and institutional and private capital. “Viper Insight was created to facilitate direct and efficient connections between both sides, in an environment where discretion and trust are essential,” he stated. The company is based in North Palm Beach, Florida.

This relational approach is particularly relevant in a context where many offshore investors prioritize access to private deals over standardized vehicles, seeking differentiation, income stability, and lower exposure to public market volatility.

Interest in medical real estate is not new, but it has intensified in recent years for several reasons that particularly resonate with international clients:

Long-term lease agreements, often linked to established medical practices.
Sustained structural demand, less dependent on the traditional economic cycle.
Dollar-denominated assets located in the U.S., a combination sought by international investors as a capital preservation tool.
Possibility of integrating these assets into broader estate and succession planning structures, common in offshore planning.

In this context, access to off-market transactions adds an additional layer of value by avoiding open competitive processes and allowing for a more strategic evaluation of the asset.

Professional Investors in the U.S. Expect a Market Correction in 2026

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

North American institutional investors and private market managers expect continued U.S. economic growth in 2026, but markets entering a more fragile and selective phase, according to new independent study commissioned by Ocorian, asset services provider

The study, conducted among 248 institutional investors, private market managers, and hedge funds based in the United States and Canada, responsible for $17.77 trillion in assets under management, shows that confidence in the underlying economic momentum remains intact, even as respondents actively prepare for valuation adjustments, persistent inflation, and shifting political conditions.

Almost all respondents (98%) expect a correction in U.S. stock markets during 2026, reflecting a widespread acknowledgment that valuations remain elevated, rather than a belief that a recession is inevitable. Investors report that they are adjusting their strategy, exit planning, and deployment pace accordingly, with increased emphasis on operational value creation and downside resilience.

Inflation remains the main macroeconomic concern. All respondents expressed some degree of concern, and 44% described themselves as very concerned. While nearly half (48%) foresee inflation increasing in 2026 and an additional 15% believe it will remain stable, expectations for a rapid return to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target are limited. Only 18% anticipate that this target will be reached in 2026, with most postponing their expectations to 2027 or later.

Despite these pressures, investors remain relatively optimistic about growth. Around half of respondents (49%) align with the White House’s expectations of U.S. GDP growth between 3% and 4% in early 2026, placing them well above prevailing consensus forecasts. This combination of growth confidence and increased caution points to what the study describes as a period of “moderate optimism.”

The risk of recession is considered high, but not inevitable. Nearly six in ten respondents (57%) believe there is a 40% or greater probability of a U.S. recession in 2026, well above long-term benchmark expectations. However, the results suggest that investors are treating recession as a real scenario that must be planned for, rather than a base case outcome, and continue to allocate capital selectively where opportunities are risk-adjusted.

The ISM Manufacturing Index Sends Clear Signals of Recovery

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

The first data of the year begins to confirm the impact of monetary and fiscal stimulus accumulated in Q4 2025. In particular, the January ISM Manufacturing survey delivered a positive surprise by returning to expansion territory with a reading of 52.6, breaking a streak of 10 consecutive months of contraction.

The rebound is supported by solid fundamentals such as:

New orders surged to 57.1 (an increase of around 10 points).
Production also posted a strong recovery.
Delivery times lengthened, consistent with stronger demand traction.
The “new orders – inventories” spread, a leading indicator of activity, accelerated after a flat 2025.

The employment subcomponent surprised to the upside, although it remains in contraction (48.1). This reinforces the perception of labor market stabilization, in line with recent jobless claims data. However, the figure does not yet confirm a sustained turnaround in manufacturing employment and therefore does not justify a hawkish shift from the Fed.

Labor Market in Progressive Normalization

The December JOLTs report, delayed due to the partial government shutdown, points to stability with nuances of weakness. Job openings declined, although voluntary quits edged up slightly (from 3.19 to 3.2 million), while layoffs did not worsen. The labor market remains in a post-pandemic normalization phase, with structurally lower demand in light of productivity gains.

Inflation: Mixed Signals and Need for Monitoring

The ISM also provides insights into price dynamics. While the prices paid series remains stable, the lengthening of delivery times could indicate early signs of price pressures. This remains an isolated data point, but given the acceleration in growth, it is advisable to monitor for potential second-round effects. The real-time inflation indicator from Truflation continues to trend downward, supporting our thesis of progressive disinflation.

However, a sharp shift in the growth outlook or a negative ruling by the Supreme Court regarding the use of tariffs could put pressure on yields and affect risk assets through:

Increased rate volatility
Less room for Fed rate cuts
Repricing of valuations

For this reason, we maintain a neutral view on equities, awaiting the right moment to increase positions.

Severe Correction in Software Within the Tech Sector

The week was also marked by a sharp correction in the technology sector, particularly in software. Despite the structural strength of the AI investment cycle, software companies experienced a capitulation session on Tuesday, with market capitalization losses exceeding $300 billion.

The decline was triggered by:

New functionalities announced by Anthropic CoWork
Comparisons to the impact of DeepSeek in 2025
Fears of disruption to SaaS models and per-user licensing
Initial drops concentrated in firms such as RELX, S&P Global, Thomson Reuters, and Legalzoom.com, later spreading across the sector and to private equity firms with significant exposure

However, the mass selloff appears to be driven more by panic than objective analysis. Disruption risk is real, but many stocks are already trading at decade-low multiples after a roughly 40% valuation compression. At these levels, much of the potential impact appears to be already priced in.

AI and CapEx: The Cycle Continues

Our view that 2026 will not be the year the AI bubble bursts is further reinforced. Hyperscalers are not only continuing to expand their computational capacity but are also significantly revising their investment plans upward. Alphabet now targets $180 billion, up from the previously expected $116 billion, while Amazon raises its estimate to $200 billion from the previous $150 billion. Altogether, AI investment could exceed $700 billion in 2026.

Toward a Less Concentrated Market

With more dynamic economic growth, the door opens to a more balanced market, where returns are no longer so heavily concentrated in technology and communications. The growing divergence in performance, and valuation, between winners and losers within the AI universe points to increased market selectivity.

The recent decline in software may have been the first step toward a broader rotation: from defensive growth to cyclicals, and from thematic concentration to structural diversification.

In conclusion, the ISM data signals the beginning of a new phase in the economic cycle, with manufacturing emerging from contraction and AI investment far from exhausted. However, concerns around inflationary pressure could resurface, requiring tactical caution and balanced portfolio construction. The key for 2026 will be clearly distinguishing between real opportunities and speculative noise surrounding disruptive technology.