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The Strategic Urgency of Diversifying Beyond U.S. Technology

The Global Capital Markets Operate Under the Dominance of a Single, Dangerous Narrative: The Euphoria Over Artificial Intelligence in the United States. According to international asset managers, this boom has driven indexes to new highs and delivered extraordinary returns. However, they acknowledge that this same euphoria has sown the seeds of systemic risk, creating levels of market concentration not seen in decades.

The interdependence and high valuations of this select group of companies call for rigorous analysis and a strategic response. For this reason, investment firms argue that adopting a proactive global diversification strategy is essential for the coming year. In this regard, they maintain that it is not about abandoning the market, but about rebalancing the portfolio to mitigate the growing risks inherent in the concentration in U.S. technology, while at the same time capturing significant value opportunities emerging in other regions and asset classes.

The Reasons for Vertigo

A thorough analysis of the foundations of the current U.S. bull market is a strategically essential exercise. Asset managers agree that while the euphoria surrounding AI is partially justified by its transformative potential, it may conceal structural vulnerabilities that prudent investors cannot afford to ignore. In this sense, the data show that, since the launch of ChatGPT, only 41 AI-linked stocks account for 75% of the total gains in the S&P 500 index.

“We do not see an AI bubble, but rather a continuing AI boom that could generate significant productivity gains in the coming years,” acknowledges Benjardin Gärtner, Global Head of Equities at DWS. In his view, although setbacks may arise along the way—as with any technological revolution—the growth story appears to remain intact.

For Raphaël Thuin, Head of Capital Markets Strategies, and Nina Majstorovic, Product Specialist in Capital Markets Strategies at Tikehau Capital, the issue is that over the past decade, the profits of technology companies have grown faster than the market, thanks in particular to online advertising, artificial intelligence, and the cloud. They note that Nvidia’s latest results are a perfect example of this and confirm the strength of the AI cycle.

“Nonetheless, doubts remain about the sustainability of demand, visibility beyond the coming quarters, and the quality of the order backlog. The market is debating a possible marginal slowdown in innovation and still uneven return on investment (ROI). Lastly, the circularity of financing, the increased use of debt (including private debt), and the energy constraints required for mass deployment are fueling some mistrust toward the sector,” they explain.

However, despite these cautionary points, they consider AI to remain a structural megatrend. “Its adoption is tangible in terms of usage, and early signs of increased productivity are beginning to emerge. We believe the hyperscalers have solid balance sheets and the cash flow needed to finance the investment cycle. Therefore, it seems appropriate to maintain long-term exposure, while favoring a selective approach focused on sectors with demand visibility, pricing power, and the capacity to generate cash flow to cover investments. At the same time, it will be important to monitor the effective transformation of order books, financial discipline, investment trajectory, and access to and cost of energy,” argue the experts at Tikehau Capital.

Ideas for Diversification

When considering diversification, the experts at boutique firm Quality Growth (Vontobel) point out that value stocks outside the U.S. have matched the performance of the Nasdaq 100, often seen as the benchmark for high-growth tech companies. “Much of this global value resurgence is explained by the revaluation of cyclical sectors, especially banking. Investors are pricing in greater profit potential, improved capital return policies, and more favorable fiscal and monetary outlooks,” the firm explains.

Among their favorite assets are European banks, which have been notable beneficiaries of the current context. “For the first time since the global financial crisis, their price-to-book ratios have surpassed the 1x level—a symbolic and relevant shift in investor sentiment. While there are reasons for this, we observe that since 2024 European value stocks have increased their multiples, while European growth and quality companies have not. Therefore, we now identify significant opportunities in Europe among high-quality growth companies, particularly those with strong fundamentals and resilient business models,” they add.

At Janus Henderson, they argue that global equity investors should take Europe into account. “Excluding the United Kingdom, Europe is the second-largest component of the MSCI All Country World Index, behind the United States, and is often underweighted in portfolios. Although the EU’s planned initiatives may not achieve the additional 19.6% increase in total European GDP forecasted, the ambition clearly marks a break with the austerity era, with governments now actively investing in growth and security,” they state in support of the Old Continent.

In equities, from a diversification perspective, the asset manager maintains that Europe is less sector-concentrated than the U.S. and could also offer greater income-generation opportunities. “The dividend yield of the MSCI Europe Index is 3.3% compared to 1.2% for the S&P 500® Index. History shows that a higher dividend yield can translate into higher real returns. Over a five-year period, the median return of stocks with a dividend yield above 3% outperformed, on average, by a minimum of 189 basis points (bps) compared to stocks with a yield below 2%,” they argue.

Finally, Luca Paolini, Chief Strategist at Pictet AM, sees potential in European markets in domestically oriented stocks, particularly mid-caps. “Adjusted for sector composition differences, Europe trades at a 25% discount to the U.S., compared to the typical 10% before COVID and the war in Ukraine—this could be a positive surprise. European stocks may experience significant gains if just part of the promised German public spending begins to flow. High-quality companies’ stocks, after a prolonged period of low returns, are likely to resume their role of protecting portfolios during periods of market volatility, against adverse macroeconomic or geopolitical surprises,” says Paolini.

When discussing sectors, the Pictet AM expert considers pharmaceuticals especially promising, as most of the bad news on drug pricing has already been priced in, and the increase in mergers and acquisitions and the moderation of economic growth support unlocking significant value. “We also like technology, financials, and industrials, with strong earnings growth. In addition, the UK market offers protection against stagflation risks and an attractive dividend yield,” he adds.

The Chicago Marathon Breaks a New Record by Raising 47 Million Dollars

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

The Bank of America Chicago Marathon Confirms a New Fundraising Record in Its 2025 Edition and Anticipates Growing Interest in Running for Charity—Now the Only Way to Access the Sold-Out 2026 Race

According to the organizers, participants in the 2025 marathon raised 47.1 million dollars for local, national, and international nonprofit organizations, surpassing the previous record by 11 million dollars. The momentum continues into 2026, when a third of the total 55,000-runner capacity is expected to participate through the official charity program.

An Event with Unprecedented Demand

More than 200,000 people applied for a spot in the 2026 edition, reflecting the marathon’s global appeal. Drawn entrants will join those who secured their place through guaranteed entry methods—previous finishers, time qualifiers, distance series, and cancellations—as well as those gaining entry via tour operators or charity teams, which remain available but with limited capacity.

Since its launch in 2002, the official charity program of the Chicago Marathon has raised over 405 million dollars, driven by thousands of runners who connect their athletic challenge with support for social causes.

Stories That Drive Fundraising

One of the most powerful stories from 2025 was that of Jim Preschlack, who chose to run in honor of his wife Paula, diagnosed with lung cancer. His campaign raised 335,665 dollars, becoming the largest individual fundraiser in the event’s history. The initiative supported cancer research at Northwestern University and the work of the American Cancer Society.

“Seeing participants combine the tremendous physical effort of training with a commitment to fundraising is inspiring,” said Carey Pinkowski, the race’s executive director.

How to Participate in the 2026 Edition

Those still hoping to run the 2026 marathon can join an official charity organization and commit to raising a minimum of 2,200 dollars. The full list of participating entities is available on the official BofA Chicago Marathon website.

An Iconic Marathon with Global Impact

In its 48th edition, on October 11, 2026, the Chicago Marathon will welcome runners from over 100 countries on a course that winds through 29 neighborhoods of the city. Beyond its athletic impact, the event generates 683 million dollars in annual economic activity for Chicago.

With a unique blend of culture, community, philanthropy, and elite sport, the race continues to solidify its status as one of the world’s most iconic marathons—and a major force in fundraising for social causes.

Monetary Policy and the Electoral Calendar Shape Latin America’s Economic Outlook

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

acuerdo Bitpanda Technology Solutions con Banco BS2 — Canva

Looking back on 2025 in the Latin American region, we see that the main economies of Latin America successfully navigated a period marked by rising trade tensions and global uncertainty. According to experts’ views, the main takeaway from the year is that, except for Brazil, the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration has been much better than expected.

“Beyond the fact that the region remained largely unaffected by the direct impact of U.S. tariff pressures, favorable terms of trade and a still-tight labor market sustained consumption and explain the resilience of economic activity throughout the year. The most relevant countries are expected to grow by more than 2% in 2025 and, although Mexico would grow by only 0.5%, it avoided a recession and has seen upward revisions in recent months,” highlight the authors of the outlook report prepared by Principal Asset Management LATAM, including Marcela Rocha, chief economist, who presents the 2026 Economic Outlook.

Monetary and Fiscal Policy

One of the defining features of the region’s economy is that, while the rest of the world continued to struggle to control inflation, Latin American countries have mostly benefited from a synchronized cycle of global monetary easing and a weaker dollar, which strengthened local currencies and supported a significant disinflation trend in recent months. In fact, with the exception of Brazil, most central banks had room to cut policy interest rates.

“In 2026, the outlook changes. While Mexico’s GDP is expected to accelerate, most of the region will face slower growth. With economic activity projected below potential, Brazil stands out as the only country with significant room for further rate cuts. In the rest of the region, the persistence of core inflation limits the scope for further monetary easing, and Mexico’s trajectory will largely depend on the policy decisions of the Federal Reserve,” note analysts from Principal AM.

The second conclusion presented in the asset manager’s report is that long-standing concerns persist regarding the sustainability of public finances. However, they explain that “a packed electoral calendar in the coming quarters opens the door to advance the much-needed policy changes, particularly in structural reforms and fiscal management. Chile, Peru, Colombia, and Brazil will hold elections in the next 12 months, which will shape part of the outlook. In Mexico, the scenario will also depend on the outcome and timing of the USMCA negotiations.”

Brazil and Mexico: The Protagonists

As the asset manager points out, Brazil and Mexico will play a particularly prominent role in the coming year. According to their estimates, the Central Bank of Brazil would be ready to begin a rate-cutting cycle, but the elections will shape the outlook. “In 2025, Brazil’s economic landscape was defined by high volatility and uncertainty, with the first part of the year marked by the lingering effects of the 2024 fiscal debate. Additionally, as inflation expectations also moved upward, well above the 3% target, the Central Bank was forced to halt its rate-cutting cycle and resume tightening, bringing the benchmark rate to 15%. However, more recently, the effects of higher rates have begun to appear in domestic data, with early signs of economic slowdown in credit and confidence indicators,” summarizes the asset manager.

According to their analysis, heading into 2026, “we expect the economic outlook to be determined by the balance between the pace of economic slowdown and the timing of the Central Bank’s monetary easing cycle.” They also see it as likely that the political environment will gain relevance throughout the year, with the presidential election positioned as the key event toward the end of 2026.

“In terms of growth, after several years in which GDP consistently surprised to the upside and operated above potential, we anticipate a moderate slowdown in the Brazilian economy. Given the significant monetary tightening already implemented, we expect GDP to slow from 2.3% in 2025 to 1.6% in 2026. On the inflation front, given the recent string of positive surprises in the short term, the balance of risks for 2026 appears slightly tilted to the downside,” they note.

Regarding Mexico, the asset manager warns that the review of the USMCA will be key to boosting investment and unlocking potential. In its year-end assessment, it acknowledges that the country enters 2026 having avoided the recession that, at the beginning of 2025, seemed almost inevitable. “The economy faced a combination of shocks: the slowdown at the end of 2024, increased uncertainty surrounding the new government, the need for fiscal consolidation, and a weaker external environment marked by the U.S. slowdown and the resurgence of trade tensions under President Trump. Despite this challenging scenario, the Mexican economy showed resilience,” the report summarizes.

In this context, the USMCA review takes on particular relevance. According to the asset manager, “USMCA exemptions shielded Mexican exports from the tariff shock that hit other trading partners, allowing Mexican goods—particularly non-automotive manufactured goods—to gain market share in the U.S. This boost in external demand generated a positive surprise in activity at the beginning of 2025, helping the economy avoid falling into recession even as domestic demand remained weak.”

Although the report notes that its forecast for 2026 is for a moderate rebound in economic activity, it also states that the main risk to this scenario is the upcoming USMCA review, as it introduces an additional layer of political uncertainty that could temporarily weigh on investment and markets. “Mexico has already taken visible steps to demonstrate its commitment to the North American framework, including preparing negotiation materials and selectively imposing tariffs on Asian—especially Chinese—goods. We expect a favorable trilateral outcome, though with episodes of volatility as negotiations progress. A constructive resolution with the United States remains the most important catalyst to reduce uncertainty and trigger increased investment in 2026,” the asset manager concludes.

Argentina Modifies Its Exchange Rate Scheme: How Far Will It Go?

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The Argentine Government Under Javier Milei Begins a New Phase of Its Monetary Program

The Argentine government of Javier Milei this week began a new phase of its monetary program that addresses the main demand of international investors and the IMF: the accumulation of international reserves and, along with it, the modification of the exchange rate bands that keep the market under intervention. How far the change will go is the big question for analysts.

According to Adcap Grupo Financiero, in this new plan, which begins in January 2026, “the only missing piece is the elimination of the capital controls that still remain.”

Starting January 1, 2026, the exchange rate bands that set a ceiling for the dollar and the peso will be adjusted monthly in line with inflation data—an announcement that had an immediate impact on the local market, with a rise in the dollar’s exchange rate. In addition, bonds rose in international markets and country risk fell, a signal of approval from foreign investors.

Avoiding a Run on the Peso and a Sharp Devaluation

The projection of local economists is that by 2026, inflation in Argentina will be between 20% and 25%. The control of the fiscal deficit and income from exports should increase the inflow of dollars into the economy and thus help to raise the reserves of the Central Bank, providing ammunition for the government to support the peso—which it has been doing for two years—against the dollar.

With broad majorities in Congress, President Milei and his government are staying the course: avoiding a devaluation while progressively meeting their commitments to creditors and the IMF.

In their initial analysis, the experts at Banco Mariva are optimistic about the chances that this new plan will not lead to an increase in inflation, but with conditions: maintaining a budget surplus and a restrictive monetary policy.

“First, maintaining a budget surplus. This is because the elimination of deficit monetization and the stabilization of public debt would allow the demand for monetary liabilities to be met through the sale of private sector assets to the central bank, which would facilitate the accumulation of international reserves without inflationary pressures. Second, maintaining a restrictive monetary policy to avoid having to sterilize increases in the monetary base if the growth in money demand is lower than the central bank’s projections.”

The initial analyses show that the new phase of the Milei government’s plan will be a small but gradual change, a gesture toward international investors aimed at buying time.

Projections for International Reserves

Cohen’s first report on the change analyzes the evolution of reserves and their current state: “In the main scenario, the BCRA projects an increase in the monetary base from the current 4.2% to 4.8% of GDP by December 2026, consistent with reserve purchases of up to 10 billion dollars. No less relevant, the daily execution amount will be aligned with a participation of up to 5% of the traded volume, which currently stands at around 400 million dollars per day, to preserve the normal functioning of the market.”

On January 9, 2026, the Treasury will have to make principal and interest payments on Bonares (under Argentine law) and Globales (under foreign law) totaling approximately 4.2 billion dollars. It is estimated that the government’s reserves currently stand at around 1.5 billion dollars. To meet this challenge, the Milei government could resort to a bond-backed loan (REPO) with international banks. It also has in place the currency swap agreement signed with the U.S. Treasury.

Jefferies Adds Alessandro Parise as Wealth Management International Manager

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Jefferies brings on Alessandro Parise as Wealth Management International Manager to oversee its international and cross-border business, according to a post by Parise on the social network LinkedIn.

“I’m excited to share that I have joined Jefferies to oversee the international and cross-border Wealth Management business,” Parise wrote. “I will be in New York and Miami, in addition to traveling throughout Latin America to meet with our clients,” he added.

The professional comes from Mizuho, where he held the position of Managing Director – Emerging Markets Sales LATAM Investors for a year and a half. Previously, he worked for nearly 16 years at Citi, where his last role was Head of Family Office Group – LATAM.

“I look forward to bringing my more than 25 years of experience to Jefferies, where collaboration, innovation, and client-centered thinking are the foundations of the client experience. I’m motivated by the opportunity to work with such a talented team to deliver meaningful impact to clients with a global presence,” the post continues. He also thanked the “colleagues, mentors, and friends” who have supported him along the way.

Parise holds FINRA Series 7, 63, 3, and 24 licenses. He is a graduate of Fundação Getulio Vargas and holds an MBA from Columbia Business School.

The Fall of the Dollar in 2025: What Are the Implications for Investors?

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

The U.S. dollar is experiencing its weakest year in over a decade. As of September 2025, the dollar index, which measures its value against other major currencies, had fallen by nearly 10%. In other words, the currency declined even further against the euro, Swiss franc, and yen, and dropped 5.6% against major emerging markets. This is according to Morningstar’s 2026 Global Outlook Report, prepared by Hong Cheng, Mike Coop, and Michael Malseed.

According to Morningstar analysts, this weakness stems from a combination of structural and cyclical factors. Among them are fiscal concerns, with sustained debt growth and the impact of the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill,” as well as reduced confidence in U.S. economic growth relative to other regions. In addition, political uncertainty—which affects perceptions of the Fed’s independence and the country’s trade decisions—has also influenced investor confidence. Changes in global capital flows and increased hedging of dollar-denominated assets have added pressure on the currency.

Despite these declines, experts stress that this does not represent a structural collapse. “The dollar remains the dominant international reserve and settlement currency and retains its appeal as a safe haven in times of stress. In fact, only nine of the 34 major developed and emerging market currencies analyzed are currently more overvalued than the dollar, indicating that it still holds relevant value for investors,” they explain.

For those investing from the U.S., Morningstar recommends taking advantage of this phase to increase exposure to international markets. “This not only allows for portfolio diversification but also offers the possibility of benefiting from the appreciation of other currencies against the dollar. For investors outside the U.S., maintaining exposure to the dollar remains relevant, especially in portfolios with a high weighting in U.S. equities. Currency hedging management can help stabilize returns, although the costs of this strategy vary: they are nearly zero in the United Kingdom, around 4% annually in Japan or Switzerland, and positive in countries with high interest rates, such as South Africa,” the document states.

Finally, the analysts agree that the weakness observed in 2025 marks a turning point in the long cycle of dollar strength, but not its structural decline. For investors, this phase represents an opportunity to strengthen global diversification and consider an increasingly relevant role for other currencies and regions in future returns. The general recommendation is to maintain a balanced approach, combining dollar exposure with international investments, to optimize the risk-return profile of portfolios.

The Market Probes the Scope of Kast’s Resounding Electoral Victory in Chile

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Wikimedia CommonsThe President of Chile, Gabriel Boric (left), and President-Elect José Antonio Kast, at La Moneda Palace.

A New Political Cycle Consolidates in Chile

Or at least that is the impression the financial industry has of the results of the Andean country’s presidential election, which concluded on Sunday, December 14, with the ultra-conservative candidate José Antonio Kast crowned as the next head of state. Now, with assets calm—after months of pricing in a shift in political direction—the market is assessing the challenges and scope of Kast’s future presidency and what effects it could have on the economy.

It was no secret that Kast was the investors’ candidate. Facing the continuity candidacy of Jeannette Jara—former Minister of Labor under Gabriel Boric’s government and a member of the Communist Party—the leader of the Republican Party secured a decisive victory. With over seven million votes, he obtained 58% of the vote, marking a wide margin over Jara.

Although the general view is that this result is positive for Chilean assets, local markets did not experience major movements the day after the presidential election. While the stock exchange opened with a moderate rise, gains were erased throughout the day, and the S&P IPSA benchmark index ended the session down 0.94%. The Chilean peso, meanwhile, strengthened slightly, with the exchange rate climbing about 0.6%, to 915.7 pesos per dollar.

What happened? Market participants agree that prices had already priced in Kast’s victory. The expectation of a government with a pro-market agenda has been one of the drivers of the rally the Chilean stock market has seen this year. The IPSA has risen more than 50% so far in 2025 and closed the final trading session before the runoff election at the unprecedented level of 10,400 points. Meanwhile, the Chilean peso went from 993 pesos per dollar—exceeding 1,000 pesos in early January—at the end of 2024, to 915 pesos at the close of trading on Monday. The view among traders: with the election in the rearview mirror, many took the opportunity to realize gains.

Economic Optimism

Kast’s presidency will begin with the handover of power on March 11 of next year. From then on, the market hopes he will push forward pro-growth policies. Among his promises are the reduction of the corporate tax rate from the current 27% to 23%, an aggressive $6 billion fiscal spending cut plan for the first 18 months of his term, and a reduction in bureaucracy.

According to Principal, the combination of improved confidence and more favorable financial conditions creates space for a “moderately optimistic outlook” for 2026 in Chile. “GDP is projected to grow 2.1%, driven by a recovery in real income and solid mining investment, while non-mining investment remains moderate amid regulatory uncertainty and high labor costs,” the firm stated in a recent report.

Given the wide margin of the president-elect’s victory, notes Mauricio Guzmán, Head of Investment Strategy at SURA Investments, the political landscape becomes clearer. “The market’s focus will shift toward the ability of the eventual administration to implement and deliver on its main campaign promises,” he predicts.

Outside the economic sphere, the priorities outlined during the presidential campaign include crime and organized crime, prison system modernization, and stricter immigration policies.

Kast’s Main Challenges

Looking ahead, the issue of governance—with a Congress in which the ability to negotiate will be key—is top of mind for the financial industry. The issue is that, to paraphrase the musical hit Hamilton: winning is easy, governing is harder.

“His main challenge will be governing with a deeply divided Congress, where his party does not hold a clear majority and will need to negotiate with the center-right faction and use blocking strategies to pass key reforms,” said Eirini Tsekeridou, fixed income analyst at Julius Baer.

Principal agrees with this assessment. “Overall, Chile enters 2026 with greater confidence and a clearer policy direction, but the outlook will largely depend on execution,” the firm’s report warned.

In this sense, they believe that the future Kast administration’s ability to manage fiscal consolidation and simplify regulation “will define whether the rebound in confidence translates into sustained increases in investment and improved medium-term economic performance.”

Even so, considering the rally that equities have experienced and the possible implications of a Kast presidency, there are doubts about how much more fuel local assets have to keep rising.

What’s Ahead for Chilean Assets

At Julius Baer, they remain optimistic, maintaining a buying bias for local equities. “The equity risk premium remains well above levels seen during the last stable regime (2010–2018), offering an attractive compensation, and Chilean stocks have limited exposure to global trade tensions and solid earnings momentum,” said Tsekeridou.

As for Chilean bonds, the European investment bank also maintains a “hold” recommendation due to “slower fiscal consolidation,” according to the analyst. And regarding the currency, the expectation is that the peso will continue to strengthen.

Guzmán, from SURA Investments, is less optimistic. “Given that José Antonio Kast’s victory was widely expected, we anticipate market gains within a narrower range, considering that the baseline scenario was largely priced in,” he said. In that sense, the Colombian-headquartered firm holds a “neutral stance” on the local stock market, “given the significant revaluation the index has shown during the year.”

In fixed income, the firm recommends investing in medium-term instruments, between 3 and 5 years, “which would allow investors to capture a relevant premium compared to short-term rates,” according to Guzmán.

Regarding the exchange rate, while they do not foresee major movements in the short term, they have a “constructive” view of the Chilean peso. SURA’s forecast is that the Chilean currency will gradually appreciate, adjusting to its economic fundamentals and offering a “relevant premium” to investors. “This view is based on reduced political uncertainty, greater interest from non-resident investors, and a favorable macroeconomic environment, which includes strong terms of trade and a globally weaker dollar,” the professional stated.

“Protectionism and the Fed Will Explain the Low U.S. Growth in 2026”

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protectionism and the Fed explain low US growth — Photo courtesy

In a conversation with Funds Society, U.S. economist Daniel J. Mitchell, a leading expert on tax and public spending issues, analyzed the pillars of the new Donald Trump cycle in the White House, fiscal tensions, the role of trade, and the outlook for 2026.

From his point of view, next year the growth of the world’s largest economy will be “modest” in terms of investment and employment due to the “suicidal protectionism” implemented by the “populist” leading the U.S. government, who acts like “Santa Claus,” thinks only in the short term, and neglects long-term growth.

The long-term damage to the economy will be greater, and fiscal risks will increase. The “spending spree will inevitably lead to future tax hikes,” and the risk of another government shutdown in 2026 is rising, he warned.

With a Ph.D. in Economics from George Mason University and a Master’s and Bachelor’s degree in Economics from the University of Georgia, Mitchell began his career in the United States Senate, where he worked as an advisor to Senator Bob Packwood (Oregon) and to the Senate Finance Committee. He also participated in the Bush/Quayle transition team in 1988.

In 1990, he joined The Heritage Foundation, where he developed an extensive career analyzing and promoting fiscal policy, advocating for income tax reform.

In 2007, he joined the Cato Institute as a senior fellow, a position he still holds, focusing on fiscal policy research, flat tax implementation, and the defense of international tax competition. He is also co-founder and president of the Center for Freedom and Prosperity, an organization dedicated to protecting and promoting global tax competition.

A More Protectionist and Interventionist Trump

Mitchell believes that the second term of the U.S. president retains traits of the first but with more pronounced emphasis, especially in trade. In his view, Trump continues to operate under an economic vision in which “the government plays Santa Claus” to gain political support, while his only deep conviction is his commitment to protectionism.

“Protectionism has worsened significantly,” he stated. The economist explained that Trump’s new tariffs imposed on the rest of the world are not based on revenue or geopolitical logic, but on a “lack of understanding” of how international trade works. The result, he warned, is greater economic inefficiency and costs for virtually all productive sectors.

According to Mitchell, the two main economic pillars of the new Trump administration are protectionism as the core of the economic program and immigration restrictions, which he also considers part of the economic package due to their direct impact on the labor market.

His view is critical: deportations or stricter immigration barriers, he argued, will reduce total GDP, although they may raise per capita GDP if they primarily affect low-skilled workers. He pointed to sectors like hospitality, construction, landscaping, and low-skill services as the most exposed to these measures.

Tax Reform: Mixed Effects and Fiscal Tensions

The economist confirmed that the 2017 tax cuts have already been extended and that some pro-growth measures were added, although also “new and absurd loopholes” in the tax code. Mitchell expects a modestly positive impact on growth, investment, and employment, but overshadowed by the economic damage from protectionism.

Is there fiscal space to support a tax cut agenda? For Mitchell, the answer is clear: “100% of the U.S. fiscal problem is excessive spending.” He insisted it is not a revenue issue, and that if not corrected, uncontrolled spending will inevitably lead to future tax increases—something he considers a significant risk to the economy.

Mitchell also emphasized that the greatest risk of the trade agenda is not just inflation or supply chain disruptions but the widespread economic inefficiency that new tariffs will cause.

Regarding inflation, he predicted that 2026 will be a year of inflationary pressures—but not due to fiscal or trade policy, but rather the Fed’s monetary policy. He warned that, like “almost all populists,” Trump favors easy money, which could undermine the independence of the central bank.

Looking Toward 2026: Three Scenarios

Mitchell outlined three possible scenarios for 2026:

Optimistic: Trump abandons his “trade war,” providing a boost to growth.
Base case: he maintains the current course, resulting in mediocre growth.
Stressed: protectionism and loose monetary policy deepen, increasing the likelihood of significant deterioration.

When asked about the coherence between pro-dollar policies and the encouragement of the crypto ecosystem, and on the other hand, restrictive immigration policies alongside a strategy of greater engagement with Latin America, Mitchell noted that consistency is not a priority for Trump. “Like all populists, he cares about what pleases voters in the short term,” he concluded.

Santander PBI Adds Manuel Orihuela Suárez in Houston

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Santander PBI adds Manuel Orihuela Suarez in Houston

Santander Private Banking International Adds Manuel Orihuela Suárez as Senior Private Banker, Executive Director

Santander Private Banking International announced the addition of Manuel Orihuela Suárez as Senior Private Banker, Executive Director. He will join the team in Houston, Texas.

According to a welcome post on the official LinkedIn page, the professional brings “a deep knowledge of the sector and a strong commitment to delivering exceptional service to clients.”

“His experience and leadership are a great addition to Santander Private Banking International,” the post continues on the professional social network.

According to Orihuela Suárez’s LinkedIn profile, he has 16 years of experience in wealth and private banking, with expertise in economic and financial data analysis, portfolio management, and risk assessment. He also has experience in providing financing solutions for HNI and UHNI clients.

Before joining Santander PBI, he served as Senior Private Banker at HSBC and previously worked as a Private Banker at BBVA Bancomer in Mexico, where he had held other positions in various areas. Academically, he studied finance at the University of North Carolina at Greensboro and holds a Master’s degree in Business Administration and Management from Universidad Iberoamericana Monterrey.

Atlantis, More Than a Decade of Independence

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Atlantis Global Investors is one of the wealth management firms that best represents the evolution of Uruguay’s financial industry—through its origins, development, and future objectives. Talking about the independent private banking model is easy now, but when it all started in Montevideo eleven years ago, the path was far from clear. Miguel Libonati can tell the story now that, as he himself says, Atlantis “has moved beyond the survival stage.”

With offices in Montevideo, Asunción, and Miami, Atlantis is regulated by the Central Bank of Uruguay as an investment advisor and has institutional agreements with Morgan Stanley, Insigneo, EFG, Raymond James, Julius Baer, and UBS.

The paragraph above reads quickly, but when in 2014 Miguel Libonati and his son Bruno decided to leave big international banking and launch themselves as independent advisors, the idea was a leap into the void. The year before, Julius Baer had acquired Merrill Lynch’s international business outside the United States, and the deal officially closed in Uruguay on April 1, 2013.

“We saw an opportunity. We thought that merger between Julius Baer and Merrill Lynch was like mixing oil and water: an American bank, a broker, and then a first-rate Swiss institution—conservative, with different principles and standards,” explains Libonati.

To the surprise of the banker, who at the time had 20 years of professional experience in international institutions, several advisory teams wanted to join his venture. It was negotiated that three would leave with the Libonatis, and once that stage was complete, the hard work began to build the company from the ground up.

“It was a tough process: transferring clients, building a company, complying with regulators, with foreign banks, and above all maintaining client portfolios, which are always our fuel. When you move from one bank to another—which I did several times in my career—you only need to worry about your clients. This was something else; there were people who had followed us, who took a leap of faith because they trusted us,” explains the founder of Atlantis.

The initial process lasted four years, during which they built the entire framework of a financial firm offering global asset management: “We were already working in Argentina, we had hired more people—it wasn’t just about building and surviving anymore, we could start the development phase.”

Currently, Atlantis is a consolidated company growing at a rate of 10% annually, with 40% of clients from Uruguay and 60% from other countries in the region, especially Argentina. The development stage’s main challenge was the opening of an office in Miami—a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) called Innova Advisors, which is now operating at full capacity.

“I’d like to mention my two sons, Bruno and Stefano, who are part of the company and have been a fundamental pillar of our development—the first from the beginning as a founder, and Stefano for the past three years. I’d also like to mention the company’s team, who have been a key factor in our growth,” says Libonati.

Reborn on December 15

Miguel Libonati is a textbook Uruguayan: born in Salto 65 years ago, a die-hard Peñarol fan, an affable man, unpretentious and genuine, who uses formal address and always prioritizes decorum. His account of the creation of Atlantis is inseparable from one date—December 15, 2015—the year he was, as he puts it, “reborn.”

It was a time full of adrenaline and stress, of being extremely focused, and one night Libonati literally collapsed to the ground from an ailment he didn’t immediately recognize. The next morning, feeling better, he went to the office.

“I’m here on borrowed time, on borrowed time, on borrowed time,” he says. “At the office I signed some checks and decided to stop by the emergency room, where they ran the first tests and sent me straight to the operating room. Then the doctor told me to change my date of birth,” he adds.

As he recounts how he decided to go finish having a heart attack after stopping by the office, Ana Inés Gómez, General Manager of Atlantis, nods with a face that says “that’s exactly how it happened because I lived it”: Libonati is the kind of person who, literally, would rather die than leave his checks unsigned.

Ana Inés Gómez has been part of Atlantis’s independent adventure from the start: “Today, we have an undeniable track record. We are proud to be one of the few companies that trains its staff, its assistants. We hire young people who are not necessarily from the financial sector—they might be economists, but they don’t have to know the business. For us, their first year is an investment in their training, something that has brought some disappointments because people do leave, but also the reward of building a culture of excellence.”

Investing in the Real Economy, Dreaming Big for Uruguay

How does the founder define Atlantis today? Libonati circles around the question, preferring to avoid the label “global private banking,” which he considers overused: “We are a wealth management office that seeks excellence. And I don’t think that’s a tired phrase—we’ve truly survived all these years and created a brand in the shadow of the giants. So much so that we’ve received countless acquisition offers.”

The future involves consolidating the business in the United States, maintaining a good growth rate, and embracing innovations such as artificial intelligence.

But Libonati’s ambition goes far beyond that: “We are investing in the real economy; we are looking for those projects.”

The founders of Atlantis are considering creating an office to serve ultra-high-net-worth clients: “There is no institution of that kind in Uruguay. That’s where we should create a project that allows us to serve clients with accounts exceeding five million dollars—something in the family office segment.”

Miguel Libonati thinks big, believes in Uruguay’s potential, and wants to place it among the ranks of developed countries. He envisions the future by participating in and promoting the country’s economic and business fabric, driving innovation.

“I see progress, developments like artificial intelligence, and I’m not an alarmist—I never think everything will get worse, or that, for example, machines will replace us. I firmly believe that everything is moving toward improvement.”