Seúl. Foto: Esteban Mendieta, Flickr, Creative Commons. Threadneedle crece en Asia con una oficina de representación en Corea del Sur
Threadneedle Investments will open a representative office in Seoul, South Korea as part of the company’s expansion in Asia. Chris Lee joins Threadneedle as the Korea Chief Representative from Samsung Asset Management.
Mr Lee and his team in Korea can better understand and appreciate the ongoing interests and requirements of the Korean investors, which means we are in a stronger position to offer better service and attractive global investment products to the Korean community.
“In recent years, the Korean market has become increasingly integrated with global financial markets and, as a result, Korean institutional investors are increasingly seeking to access overseas markets in order to achieve better risk diversification and improved returns,” said Raymundo Yu, Chairman, Asia Pacific, Threadneedle Investments. “We believe that Korea presents great opportunities for us to serve institutional investors in Asia by offering our suite of outstanding investment strategies across asset classes. The opening of our Korean representative office marks yet another key milestone for Threadneedle’s growing presence in Asia.”
Part of Ameriprise Financial, Threadneedle established its presence in Asia in 2008 and has offices in Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Malaysia. The company’s growth in Asia builds on its established presence and considerable investment capabilities as well as those of Columbia Management, the group’s US-based investment manager.
“The establishment of a representative office in Korea is only the first step in our long-term commitment to the market. Mr Lee is an invaluable addition to Threadneedle’s Asia team. He brings a wealth of local market intelligence and fund industry expertise that will greatly benefit our clients in Korea as we build closer relationships with them,” said June Wong, Threadneedle’s Vice Chairman, Asia Pacific and Chief Executive Officer, Hong Kong.
Mr Lee has over 20 years of experience in managing and advising on institutional investments as both an internal and external investment manager. Before joining Threadneedle, he has led the global business as head of overseas investment team in the Global Business Division at Samsung Asset Management, Korea, where he was responsible for global asset allocation funds and managing key relationships with Korean institutional investors. In addition he established and led Samsung Asset Management operations in Singapore as Managing Director and CEO. Mr Lee also worked at various investment units of Samsung Life Insurance in Seoul and Samsung Life Investment in the UK.
“Threadneedle’s presence in Korea is essential for our global business strategy and will enable us to capture opportunities in a highly relationship-driven environment. I look forward to working closely with Threadneedle’s Asia team to deliver client-focused solutions to institutional investors in Korea,” said Mr Lee.
Threadneedle Investments has appointed Maya Bhandari as Investment Strategist in its Multi-Asset Allocation team. Maya, who started on 18 August, is based in London and reports to Toby Nangle, Head of Multi-Asset Allocation. Her appointment follows the recent appointment of Craig Nowrie as Client Portfolio Manager to the Multi-Asset Allocation team.
Maya joins Threadneedle from Citigroup, where she was a Director of Global Macro Strategy & Asset Allocation. Prior to that, she was a Director and Head of Emerging Market Analysis at Lombard Street.
Toby Nangle, Head of Multi-Asset Allocation, said: “I am thrilled that Maya has joined the team. She has a strong track record in calling markets and economic developments ahead of the pack and her appointment will strengthen further Threadneedle’s excellence in active asset allocation. Maya’s insights will help us tackle the challenges facing today’s investors and deliver solutions in an area of increasing demand. With approx. 40% of Threadneedle’s assets in some form of asset allocation mandate, we have an established and successful offering in this space.”
Photo : Thomas Bresson . “The Dow Will Trade Significantly Below its Current Level at Some Point Over the Next Five Years”
We compare the rise in the Dow Jones Industrials index from its March 2009 low with increases after six previous bear markets involving a peak-to-trough fall of about 50%. (The Dow declined by 54% between October 2007 and March 2009.) As explained below, the current level of the Dow is slightly above the top of the range spanned by these prior rises.
The six bear market troughs considered in this analysis occurred in November 1903, November 1907, December 1914, August 1921, April 1942 and December 1974. The Dow Industrials fell by between 45% and 52% into these lows. (The 1929-32 bear market was excluded because it involved a much larger decline, of 89%.) In each of the six cases, the trough of the bear market was rebased and shifted forwards in time to align with the March 2009 low. The subsequent rises were then traced out and an average calculated – see chart.
The current rise broadly tracked the “six-recovery average” until late 2011 but has since diverged positively, standing 39% higher as of yesterday’s close. The average remains below the current Dow level through end-2019.
The Dow is 4% above the top of the range spanned by the prior rises. The range top is defined by the “roaring twenties” increase from the August 1921 trough – black line in chart. The equivalent month to August 2014 was March 1927. If the Dow were to replicate its performance then, it would rise to 18,000 at end-2014 and 22,000 at end-2015 en route to a peak of 39,000 in January 2017, corresponding to September 1929.
As noted, the 1929-32 bear market wiped out 89% of the Dow’s peak value, returning it to the equivalent today of 4,000.
The historical analysis, therefore, suggests that the Dow will trade significantly below its current level at some point over the next five years. A further substantial rise first, however, cannot be ruled out.
The “monetarist” perspective here is that bear markets are normally triggered by money supply expansion falling short of the needs of the economy – such a shortfall crimps future activity and is associated with a withdrawal of liquidity from markets. Annual real narrow money growth moved well beneath industrial output expansion from late 1928, signalling a deteriorating liquidity backdrop. The real narrow money / industrial output growth gap remains positive currently, both in the US and globally.
Please note: references to individual companies or stocks should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell them. These are the fund manager’s views at the time of writing and may differ from those of other Henderson fund managers.
Foto: "Beldorf - Grünentaler Hochbrücke 08 ies" de Frank Vincentz. La economía de EE.UU. conseguirá crecer por encima de su potencial en 2015
Pioneer Investments has published a forecast update for the US economy, revising growth and inflation upwards. Tapering would be definitely over by October and interest rates should start to rise in 2015. The report is signed by Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research, and Annalisa Usardi, Economist, US & LATAM Global Asset Allocation Research. The main highlights of the revised forecast are:
Growth: Pioneer Investments has revised its 2014 growth forecast to 2.0% based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis July 30th data release, which encompasses the advance estimate of 2Q GDP14, together with a revision of the GDP and underlying expenditure components. They also revised upward their growth expectations for 2015, to 2.7%. While 2014 will again be a sub-par growth year for the US, Pioneer Investments expects growth for 2015 to be above par, helping to close the output gap that opened with the “Great Recession”.
Inflation: Pioneer Investments believe the turning point in inflation has been reached and they now see CPI moving above 2% YoY in the coming quarters. The asset manager has revised upward both their forecasts for 2014 (CPI now at 2% YoY) and 2015 (CPI now at 2.3% YoY). Given the revisions in Wages and Unit Labor Costs, it expects CPI inflation to move modestly above the 2% level, but is not expecting dramatic upward pressure to build. Inflation expectations remain well behaved and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation is still below the 2% level.
Federal Reserve: The next scheduled Fed meeting is on September 17. Quantitative easing (QE) is likely to continue to be “tapered” going forward as announced and completely wound down by October 2014. Interest rates could then start to slowly rise during 2015. Pioneer Investments currently assumes that the Fed will start increasing rates during 2015 (fed fund futures currently expect rates to start to rise above 0.25% in the summer of 2015).
Triggers
Stronger-than-expected global growth and trade, resulting in higher demand for U.S. exports, could lift confidence and add to internal demand drivers to lift growth.
Improvements in consumer balance sheets, coupled with stable income growth and anchored inflation expectations, could trigger higher confidence and support more sustained patterns of consumption than we currently envisage.
Improving business sentiment underpinned by accelerating and external sales and coupled with capacity utilization levels higher than we currently estimate could support further acceleration in capital expenditures.
Risks
A significantly stronger dollar might adversely impact the export sector by making U.S.-produced goods and services more expensive in foreign markets.
After the multi-year forced deleveraging, the U.S. consumer might be more reluctant to re-leverage notwithstanding a better balance sheet, and this change in attitude might subtract steam from growth.
A faltering real estate recovery could lead to lower growth prospects.
Renewed geopolitical tensions, involving directly or indirectly the U.S., could be highly disruptive for the flow of oil and for financial markets in general.
Mid-term elections results this fall could disrupt the smooth progress of political activity and represent a risk for business stability and consumer confidence.
. Gabino Tuero, director de desarrollo de negocio de Dagong Europe
Dagong Europe Credit Rating -Dagong Europe- has announced the appointment of Gabino Tuero as Business Development Director, effective from 18 August 2014 based in the Milan office. Mr Tuero will be in charge of all business development activities both in the financial institutions and the corporates sectors of the major Southern European economies Italy, Spain and Portugal. He will also cover Eastern Europe and Corporates in the United Kingdom, reporting directly to Ulrich Bierbaum, the General Manager.
Ulrich Bierbaum, GM said ‘Dagong Europe is expanding our business development department to meet the enquiries and demands of our tailor-made rating services. Gabino’s arrival will certainly reinforce our commitment to the market. With his all-round, cross-industry background in sales, marketing, research and product development from leading financial services providers and his long standing relationships with clients and stakeholders, I am certain that we can foresee progress at a rapid pace shortly. We look forward to working closely with him.’
‘I am delighted to take on this role. I strongly believe in the potential and the unique positioning of Dagong Europe. The combination of Western methodology and the Chinese philosophy intrigues me very much. I am eager to bring my experience to the multicultural environment and am excited to be part of the team that will help to quickly strengthen Dagong Europe’s presence in this area.’ Mr Tuero added.
Mr Tuero, a Spaniard, joins Dagong Europe from Credit Suisse where he was Vice President of the External Asset Manager department since 2012, being the main point of contact with Iberian and LATAM clients from the Luxembourg office. Prior to that, he was Senior Relationship Manager at Nordea Asset Management, covering Iberia and LATAM markets. Before relocating to Luxembourg, he was Business Development Director, Financial institutions at Aviva Investors in Spain, responsible for developing relationships mainly with institutions in the Spanish, Portuguese and Andorran markets. He also spent 8 years in the Marketing department of Fidelity Investments, primarily involved in On-line and Product & Market Research functions, supporting the generation of key sales opportunities. He holds a degree in Marketing Research (ITM) and Business Administration (E-2) from Universidad Pontificia de Comillas (ICADE).
Dagong Europe
Dagong Europe Credit Rating srl (Dagong Europe) was established in March 2012 with headquarters in Milan, Italy. In June 2013, Dagong Europe received authorization and registration by the European Securities Market Authority (‘ESMA’) under the Article 16 of the CRA regulation.
Dagong Europe, a joint venture between Dagong Global Credit Rating (60% ownership) and Mandarin Capital Partners (40% ownership), is led by Mr. Ulrich Bierbaum as General Manager. Mr. Guan Jianzhong, President of Dagong Global, is the Chairman of Dagong Europe’s Board of Directors, while Mr. Lorenzo Stanca, Managing Partner of Mandarin Capital Partners, is the Deputy Chairman.
Dagong Europe provides credit opinions on financial institutions including insurance companies and non-financial corporates, producing autonomously Procedures, Criteria and models that are the foundations of the credit rating process. Dagong Europe is dedicated to bringing the financial markets with an independent, objective, fair, transparent, timely and prospective credit opinion.
An effective value proposition strengthens audience connections and fosters growth, yet many advisors have had little objective guidance in formulating such statements until now, according to a new study released today from Pershing, a BNY Mellon company. What Do Top Advisors Say and What Do Investors Really Think? reveals how an advisor can communicate their value proposition to investors and differentiate themselves from other advisors in the industry.
A unique value proposition answers the critical question “Why should I choose you?”, yet according to the survey 60 percent of investors say that many advisors make similar promises, making it difficult to distinguish between them. The strongest value propositions incorporate these four key elements:
attributes of the advisor;
benefits for the investor;
a rational explanation of how the firm’s attributes benefit the client;
and language that evokes emotion.
“Developing an effective value proposition can have larger implications on an advisor’s overall business than they may realize,” says Kim Dellarocca, managing director at Pershing. “In many instances, the value proposition is the first impression potential clients experience and can be the catalyst for a future relationship. It is also an opportunity for advisors to promote business growth by using language that differentiates themselves and targets their ideal client base by articulating attributes and features that appeal to specific demographics. Of course, the real test is delivering on what you promise.”
Choosing the right language can make a big difference for investors. Pershing’s study found that investors prefer value statements that incorporate “comprehensive” over “holistic” by a ratio of seven to one. Additionally, two topics that investors care about most – conservative investment approaches and trust – are under-represented in most value propositions.
Based on a systematic look at the value propositions used by top advisors, and investor reactions to these and other value propositions, Pershing has identified key takeaways for advisors to consider when creating a value proposition of their own. They are as follows:
Include core promises—but add more. Investors found three themes to be the most compelling among advisors’ value propositions: tailored solutions to meet their needs, advisors working for the investors’ best interest and experienced investment managers. An advisor’s website and marketing materials should include these top promises. Advisors who do not mention these in their value propositions risk being excluded from consideration by potential clients. Successful advisors also need to include something extra to differentiate themselves, such as why investors should choose them over other advisors or unusual client benefits like building a family legacy or understanding personal aspirations.
Don’t oversell simplicity. Many websites promise to simplify investing and relieve clients of the burden of managing wealth, but according to Pershing’s study, most investors accept the need to take an active role in managing their own finances.
Give conservative approaches more prominence. If advisors’ money management approaches place special emphasis on preservation of capital, it should be a highly visible component of their value proposition.
Work hard to establish trust. Trust remains a much bigger concern for investors than the financial industry realizes. Advisors must ensure their value propositions include a message on why investors should trust in them and includes themes like trust, accountability, integrity and fiduciary responsibility.
Tailor the message to the ideal client profile. Different market segments place higher emphasis on different attributes. Advisors should know who their ideal client base is and what is most important to them in an advisor, and make sure their value propositions exhibit those points. For instance, investors under 40 place higher importance on advisors who will provide guidance through life’s major events and relieve the burden of managing finances.
Watch your language. Investors dislike jargon and favor words with emotional connotations- that means how the value proposition is formulated is just as important as the message it is trying to portray. For example, when judging between near-synonyms, investors prefer words with an emotional punch, such as “unwavering” and “passionate” rather than “committed” and “dedicated”.
To learn more about the makings of a winning value proposition, please visit this link.
Emerging markets and selected high yield debt appear to offer opportunities in the current environment of heightened geopolitical risk, according to the summer bond market observations from Standish Mellon Asset Management Company LLC, the Boston-based fixed income boutique for BNY Mellon.
Periods of market volatility associated with this type of risk historically have provided buying opportunities, according to the Standish Bond Market Observations July/August Part II (BMO).
“Over the past two decades, investors who bought the popular global or high yield bond indexes during spikes in volatility on average ended up with positive total return six months later,” said David Leduc, chief investment officer of Standish and author of the report.
This time around, conflicts in Ukraine and Iraq have contributed to higher volatility and risk assets began to sell off, the report said. Standish expects both Ukraine and Iraq will settle into an unstable equilibrium. While both have the potential to unsettle financial markets, Standish said they believe that neither is likely to derail global economic expansion in the second half of 2014.
Looking at emerging markets, Standish said valuations appear to be particularly compelling in Latin America and Asia. However, Leduc added, “We worry about the vulnerability of the sector to the eventual tightening of Fed policy despite the improvement in market technical signals.” The improvement in technical signals followed the sell-off that occurred in the spring of 2013 when talk of tapering quantitative easing first arose, Standish said.
Overall, Standish expects the U.S. and China to lead accelerating global growth in the 2014 second half. The report cites stimulus measures implemented by China earlier in the year that are beginning to filter through to the broader economy. The report also noted that economic output in the U.S. rebounded in the second quarter of 2014.
Bank J. Safra Sarasin explains the global economic outlook and investment strategy for the rest of 2014. According to the bank, equities remain the most attractive asset class mid-term, in particular Emerging Markets have further catch-up potential. “Earnings growth is likely to replace higher valuations as the main driver for share prices in the near future: Equity markets could still overshoot. We see the biggest opportunities in Japan and emerging market countries”, says Philipp E. Baertschi, Chief Investment Officer Private Clients.
The bank thinks that the economic recovery continues, but at varying speeds; the US leads the global cycle with growth significantly higher than in Euroland.
Euroland is hampered by high debt levels, ongoing economic imbalances, adverse geopolitical headwinds like the crisis in Ukraine and the urgent need for structural reforms.
Inflation remains low globally, preventing a premature increase of policy rates and a bond market crash. The spectre of deflation is particularly strong in Euroland and needs to be addressed by demand and supply side policies. “Excessively low inflation impedes structural change and puts extra pressure on leverage to households and companies. Wages and inflation need to be significantly higher in the most competitive Euro area countries to meet the ECB’s definition of price stability and to rebalance the Euro area. Structural reforms that strengthen the growth potential are necessary, but a declining acceptance of economic policies that are needed for a sustainable currency union and the risk of adverse political developments are now greater than those originating in financial markets”, comments Karsten Junius, Chief Economist.
Interest rate hikes are forecasted in the USA/UK in 2015 while the monetary policy of the European Central Bank is expected to become even more expansionary. As a result, bond yields are likely to rise, with the curve to remain stable in US and steepen in Euroland. The US dollar is expected to strengthen against the Euro and Swiss Franc.
With regard to Switzerland, the Bank’s experts make the following observations:Economic indicators are pointing to solid growth – based on strong consumption, high employment, low interest rates and strong credit growth; SNB monetary policy is tied to the ECB’s policy and the SNB is expected to defend success- fully the CHF 1.20 floor against the Euro – if necessary also by lower interest rates; the main risk remains the overheating of the housing sector; GDP forecast for 2014 is 1.6%, and for 2015 is 1.8%.
. Camden Capital nombra a Kara S. Boccella managing director de su oficina de California
Camden Capital announces the appointment of Ms. Kara S. Boccella as managing director and Ms. Devon M. Galindo as client relations associate. Ms. Boccella has twenty-five years of experience advising legal professionals, business owners, entrepreneurs and high net worth families on wealth management, legacy planning and family office matters.
Ms. Boccella joins Camden Capital from KLS Professional Advisors Group (KLS), a subsidiary of Boston Private Financial Holdings and a multi-billion dollar registered investment advisory firm headquartered in New York City. She worked at the firm for 19 years and most recently served as a managing director and member of the investment committee.
“The majority of wealth management firms do not focus on providing investment and planning advice tailored to high net worth legal professionals,” said Ms. Boccella. “Camden Capital’s independent structure, world-class investment platform and fiduciary-duty differentiate it from a majority of the national firms. A conflict-free investment offering and personalized service approach in an intimate, boutique setting is an ideal environment for the sophisticated legal community. I am thrilled to join the team.”
CEO and Founder John M. Krambeer added, “Kara is a remarkable addition to our firm. Her reputation in the legal community is exceptional. Leading legal professionals have a strong desire to access an independent and boutique-style firm that is represented by thoughtful professionals who understand their specific situations.”
Camden Capital provides unbiased investment advice and legacy planning to high and ultra-high net worth individuals and families. With a focus on developing long term relationships with its clients, the firm has grown exclusively through referrals. Camden’s relentless commitment to achieving its clients’ objectives, exclusive investment access and consolidated performance and tax reporting are at the core of its value proposition. Camden Capital has offices in Los Angeles and Palm Beach.
The French economy faces problems on both the demand as well as the supply side. On the demand side it suffers from very sluggish spending growth where it is underperforming many of its EMU peers. Meanwhile, there are also formidable structural problems such as a low rate of profitability, a deterioration in competitiveness and too little flexibility in labour and product markets, expains Willem Verhagen, Senior Economist Multi-Asset ING IM.
The most promising recipe to solve all this, which was in fact advocated by Draghi in his Jackson Hole speech, is to implement policies on both sides of the equation. Structural reforms are of little use if there is insufficient demand to move resources towards industries with a higher productivity. Similarly, well-targeted reforms can raise business confidence and enhance the effectiveness of demand stimulus.
Until recently, the policy prescriptions applied within the euro area have all focused on structural reform while too little attention was given to the need for demand stimulus. Until early 2013 there was even a huge fiscal contraction on the region wide level which, combined with the fall-out from the euro crisis, played a big part in the double dip recession of 2011/12.
Meanwhile, monetary policy was insufficiently loose to generate sufficient traction in overall demand. Since then, policy actions have improved as the pace of fiscal consolidation has come down while monetary policy has been eased. However, so far this is still not enough to substantially reduce the degree of slack in the economy.
French politics has wrestled a lot with the seemingly opposing demand and supply side policy prescriptions over the past few years. Before he became President Hollande campaigned on the need to generate growth but once he was in office he was quickly confronted with the fiscal straight jacked imposed by Brussels. With the appointment of Prime Minister Valls the French government became decisively more open to implementing difficult but needed supply side reforms but the recognition that demand stimulus is also needed was never completely lost. Outgoing economy minister Montebourg was very vocal in his call for less fiscal austerity but at the same time opposed structural reform. The new Economy minister is a proponent of these reforms but remains relatively silent on the need for demand stimulus.
All in all, France thus seems to have moved closer to the policy views of Brussels and Berlin which could possibly come at the cost of more domestic political problems as the support for the government in Parliament becomes thinner due to the risk of split in Hollande’s party. Partly because of this, this move could, however, perhaps paradoxically increase the leverage of France in the European debate on the need for more demand stimulus. There is an increasing recognition within the EC that the flexibility within the Fiscal Compact should be used to ease the fiscal side of things further. As argued before, the ECB is now also coming around to this view.
