Michelle Boquiren Joins Amundi Distributors USA as Head of U.S. Fund Distribution

  |   For  |  0 Comentarios

Michelle Boquiren Joins Amundi Distributors USA as Head of U.S. Fund Distribution
Michelle Boquiren. Foto cedida . Michelle Boquiren llega a Amundi como jefa de Distribución de Fondos en Estados Unidos

Amundi Distributors USA, LLC announced that Michelle Boquiren has joined the company, as Senior Vice President, Head of U.S. Fund Distribution. Amundi Distributors is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Amundi.

As Head of U.S. Fund Distribution, a new position, Ms. Boquiren is responsible for maintaining and deepening Amundi Distributors’ relationships with U.S.-based distributors and global distributors headquartered in the U.S.; managing existing and developing new partner relationships; and developing new fund solutions for investors. Ms. Boquiren will report to Stephen A. Eason, CFA, Chief Executive Officer and work primarily from Amundi Distributors’ offices in New York, New York.

Christian Pellis, Global Head of External Distribution, Amundi, commented, “We are delighted to welcome Michelle on board to head up Amundi Distributors’distribution business. Amundi, through its U.S. subsidiaries (Amundi Distributors USA, LLC and Amundi Smith Breeden, LLC) is firmly committed to its growth ambitions in the U.S. which is a key market. Michelle’s recruitment will strengthen Amundi’s footprint in the U.S.; she brings extensive experience in international fund distribution and I am confident that her contribution will help to take Amundi Distributorsto its next development phase.”

“We are pleased to have Michelle as the newest member of our team. Amundi is actively expanding its institutional and fund management business through its U.S. subsidiaries. With her 20 years of experience and many close relationships with key participants in the fund industry, Michelle is the ideal person to lead this expansion. I look forward to working with Michelle,” stated Mr. Eason.

Before joining Amundi Distributors, Ms. Boquiren held several senior management positions in business development and sales at Investec Asset Management for American and International client from 2006 to 2014. Prior to Investec, Ms. Boquiren was Managing Director, Origination and Distribution at Overture Financial Services, LLC. Earlier, she held product development and senior specialist positions at Merrill Lynch, Global Private Client Group. Ms. Boquiren began her financial services career at Philippine Commercial International Bank.

Ms. Boquiren holds an MBA in Finance, Dean’s List, from the Asian Institute of Management in Manila, Philippines. She earned a BA in Management, Dean’s List, from De La Salle University in Manila, Philippines.

How do You Solve a Problem like the Euro?

  |   For  |  0 Comentarios

Standard Life Investments highlights that we are still in a multi speed growth world with Europe in particular facing significant long-term adjustment challenges.

As the world’s second largest economy, the Eurozone matters a lot for global growth and it is important that European policy makers address the demand and supply-side problems that are limiting economic recovery.

Jeremy Lawson, Chief Economist, Standard Life Investments, said: “We believe that European recovery is still very weak. Draghi has finally acknowledged that fiscal policy has been too tight and accelerated structural and financial reforms are now needed to stop Europe being trapped in a low growth equilibrium. Unfortunately he only has control over one policy area – monetary policy – and the flaws in the Eurozone’s institutional design make it hard to achieve the right fiscal balance that is now required to get growth up and inflation back to target.

“The banking union also falls short of what is ultimately needed to allow the currency union to function better. With respect to structural reforms, the heavy lifting has to be done at the national level. Portugal and Spain are already reaping the benefits of the labour market reforms they have implemented but France and Italy continue to lag well behind. All of this implies that the Eurozone is at risk of suffering a lost decade in terms of living standards unless tough decisions are made.”

Luis Gallardo, new CEO at Thinking Heads Americas

  |   For  |  0 Comentarios

Luis Gallardo, new CEO at Thinking Heads Americas
. Luis Gallardo nombrado nuevo CEO de Thinking Heads Americas

With determination to drive the expansion of Thinking Heads Americas, as of October 1st, the first operator in the Hispanic world specializing in the global market of ideas, Luis Gallardo, has been established as Chief Executive Officer and a member of the Board of Directors.

“Luis Gallardo is the perfect person to direct the expansion of Thinking Heads in the U.S. and Latin America, his multinational experience creating brands and strategic communication and marketing programs with global impact is unique and truly impressive,” notes Daniel Romero-Abreu, Founder and President of Thinking Heads Group.

Luis Gallardo will be building the capacities needed to win the confidence of a potential of US$ 2.5 billion market including in-person, digital, literary and trending content, aspiring to turn Thinking Heads into a Thought Leadership Hub on a global scale through the development and exploitation of its unique model for managing personal positioning.  

The Board of Directors of Thinking Heads Americas also features prominent personalities from the world of finance in Miami such as Jose Castellano, director of Pioneer Investments, Eduardo Rabassa, director of Amrop Seeliger and Conde US, as well as Eric Bergasa, partner at Tagua Capital; Alex Blochtein, international manager of Nortek; Pete Pizarro, CEO at Whitney International University Systems; Ignasi Puig, CEO at SCPF America; Gustavo Cisneros and Steven Bandel, President and Vice President of Cisneros.

For the past two years, Luis Gallardo has been acting president for consumption and brand marketing at Burson-Marsteller for EMEA, as well as Director of Global Brand Strategy at BAV Consulting, both companies in theYoung & Rubicam group. From 2004 to 2012 Luis Gallardo was Global CMO at Deloitte, where he directed brand, marketing and communication strategy in more than 150 countries. Luis is also a counsellor for tech and entertainment start-ups such as Webrand, Shore and Hollywood Domino.

He is the author of, Brands & Rousers, The Holistic System to Foster High Performing Businesses, Brands & Careers, which was awarded the Axiom silver medal as the best marketing book in the world in 2013. Luis Gallardo holds an MBA from IMD in Switzerland, and a Master’s in International Relations from the University of Lancaster in the United Kingdom.

Shaping The Word Through Ideas

The premiere of Thinking Heads Americas in Miami will be on October 27, 2014. This very special moment will feature the presence of Felipe Gonzalez, President of Spain from 1982 to 1996, as well as Adriana Cisneros, CEO and Vice-Chairman of Cisneros. The two of them will hold a colloquium on the role of “multilatinas” in the emerging economic and social regional setting,moderated by Andres Oppenheimer, political analyst for CNN and Editor of The Miami Herald, with a cocktail reception following reflection and networking.

About Thinking Heads Americas

Thinking Heads Americas puts into practice the methodology that has won the confidence of some of the world’s most prestigious minds: personal positioning management through the generation and dissemination of knowledge. Thanks to this, personalities such as Felipe Gonzalez, Ricardo Lagos and Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero have managed to get in contact with those institutions that demanded their ideas to improve the environment in which they operated.  And most important of all: always calling on the capacity for reflection and thought of the audience to whom they were addressed.  

Thinking Heads Group has managed more than 6,000 public appearances and has made its digital content for audiovisual production into a successful training supplement for thousands of executives and companies. It has, moreover, guided and promoted the works of hundreds of authors, and planned the personal positioning strategy of more than 80 personalities from a variety of settings. Some of the distinguished figures include economists Jose Carlos Diez and Carlos Rodriguez Braun; attorney and former government minister, Ana Palacio; athletes Toni Nadal and Emilio Butragueno; the philosopher Jose Antonio Marina; journalist Pedro J. Ramirez and artist Theo Jansen, as well as a variety of personalities from the world of business, science and thought.

Alternative Finance News Announces Inaugural AltFi Global Summit 2014

  |   For  |  0 Comentarios

AltFi will host its inaugural AltFi Global Summit for the US institutional investor audience on Tuesday, November 4, 2014 at the NASDAQ in New York City. 

2014 is the tipping point for alternative finance – with P2P lending, crowdfunding and invoice finance coming of age across the globe. Following the success of the AltFi Europe Summit 2014, AltFi.com is bringing the conference to the US to explore the various challenges facing this dynamic sector, to investigate the opportunities in both Europe and America, and to showcase the platforms that are leading the way.

The audience of approximately 250 attendees will be comprised of investors, wealth managers, hedge funds, family offices, broker dealers, financial advisors, venture capitalists, and consultants – and of course, major platforms from both sides of the Atlantic.

Confirmed Speakers Include:

  • Brian Korn (Corporate and Securities Lawyer, Pepper Hamilton)
  • Heather Schwarz Lopes (Co-Founder and Chief Strategy Officer, EarlyShares)
  • Aaron Vermut (CEO, Prosper)
  • Claudia Calloway (Managing Partner, Katten Muchin)
  • Gary Chodes (Chairman and CEO, Raiseworks)
  • Cormac Leech (Analyst, Liberum)
  • Geoff Miller (CEO, GLI Finance)
  • Jonathan Barlow (CEO, Eaglewood Capital)
  • Matt Burton (CEO, Orchard Platform)
  • Simon Hermiz (Co-Founder and CEO, Note360)
  • Larry Chiavaro (Executive Vice Presdient, First Associates)
  • Richard Swart (Global Crowdfunding and Alternative Finance Researcher, PhD, University of California, Berkeley)
  • Rohit Arora (CEO, Biz2Credit)
  • Rupert Taylor (Director, AltFi Data)
  • Simon Champ (CEO, P2P Global Investments)
  • Etienne Boillot (CEO, Shepherd Capital)
  • Giles Andrews (CEO and Co-Founder, Zopa)
  • Rhydian Lewis (CEO and Co-Founder, RateSetter)
  • Jens Glaso (CEO, Trustbuddy)
  • Stuart Law (CEO and Co-Founder, Assetz Capital)
  • Christian Faes (CEO and Co-Founder, LendInvest)
  • Jilliene Helman (CEO, Realty Mogul)
  • James Levy (Senior Advisor, Business Development, SICAV-SIF) 

“We are hosting the definitive event for this sector—with a strong focus on investors, investment opportunities and business development. We’ve selected a fantastic line-up of prominent thought leaders to share their views about navigating today’s alternative finance space. We’ll analyze the leading platforms from both the US and Europe to produce a fascinating cross-continental view,” said David Stevenson, media entrepreneur and founder of AltFi.com.

If you want to attend or more information go to this link.

 

Pioneer Investments Named ‘Fixed Income Manager of the Year: Global’ by Global Investor Magazine

  |   For  |  0 Comentarios

Pioneer Investments Named ‘Fixed Income Manager of the Year: Global’ by Global Investor Magazine
Ken Taubes, director de Inversiones de Pioneer Investments en EE. UU., y portfolio manager de Pioneer Strategic Income Fund, Pioneer Bond Fund, y Pioneer Multi-Asset Real Return Fund. Pioneer Investments nombrado “Administrador del Año de Renta Fija Global” por la Revista Global Investor

Pioneer Investments has been named ‘Fixed Income Manager of the Year: Global’ by Global Investor magazine’s Investment Excellence Awards 2014, recognizing the strength and depth of its Fixed Income range across Europe, the U.S. and Emerging Markets.

This prestigious award is based on key achievements over the last 12 months and attributes that separate an asset manager from peers/competitors, with a particular focus on innovation, performance and ability to adapt to the market environment.

Pioneer Investments highlights the firm’s key strengths in US Fixed Income:

  • Philosophy– A clearly articulated and consistent investment approach
  • Organization– The nurturing of intellectual freedom in the organization
  • People– Aligning the goals and aspirations of all investment professionals towards one common good – the pursuit of competitive investment results

Two common problems with Investment Management Organizations

The investment management industry appears to have evolved into two models: the boutique, which offers a small set of focused strategies, or the behemoth, which attempts to provide everything under the sun.

Sector Advocacy is an industry phenomenon that results when investment analysts stop viewing their sector in terms of its role in an overall strategy and start to endorse its role in all investment environments, no matter what.

Investment Myopia occurs when an investment analyst’s universe of subject coverage shrinks, his or her focus turns inward, and intellectual silos develop that impact the sharing of information within the context of the strategy.

A Better Way: Review, Rethink, Rebuild

To deal with the problems of sector advocacy, investment myopia and the consequences of unintended bets, Pioneer Investments started from a clean slate with the arrival of Ken Taubes, Head of Investment Management US, in 1998. Ken’s prior experience with a large asset manager led him to believe that most large asset managers, for many of the previously stated reasons, were poorly implementing the traditional multi-sector fixed income strategy. Thus, Pioneer Investments embarked upon a radical rewrite of the traditional script.

The Investment Organization is Formed Around Three Guiding Principles

  • Establish a Unified Approach: To break the psychology of sector advocacy Pioneer Investments attemps to 1) align analyst and manager incentives to portfolio performance, not just individual contribution, and 2) provide multiple sector and asset class responsibility, so that analysts and portfolio managers do not need to advocate for a bond or sector in order to justify their existence to the organization.
  • Optimize Organizational Scale: To promote communication between professionals in different areas and to facilitate the sharing of thoughts and ideas, the asset manager aims to keep the US side of the organization lean. As a result, they keep the entire investment team on one floor in their Boston office and encourage free-flowing communication through regular, all- staff investment meetings. This has the added benefit of allowing to assign more sectors and asset class responsibilities to analysts and portfolio managers, reducing their fear of being intellectually side-lined when a sector or asset class is out of favor.
  • Promote “Outside-of-the-Box” Thinking: One of the consequences of sector advocacy can be intellectual rigidity. Pioneer Investments encourages analysts and portfolio managers to seek out ideas more broadly, across geographies, capital structures and sectors. For instance, new ideas for our US taxable portfolios may come from the US tax-exempt area or from the high yield area or the mortgage- and asset-backed analysts. 
A subtle yet powerful outcome of Pioneer Investments’ organizational thinking has been the extremely low staff turnover in the 13-plus years that Ken Taubes has headed the US Fixed Income team. The reason is simple: most investment professionals enjoy working in an organization that provides a wide degree of 
intellectual freedom and promotes teamwork versus intellectual monopolization and cut-throat competition.

Banque Internationale a Luxembourg Appoints Swiss CEO

  |   For  |  0 Comentarios

Banque Internationale à Luxembourg (BIL) has appointed Thierry de Loriol as chief executive of its Swiss operations in charge of BIL’s private banking and wealth management activities.

Adrian Leuenberger, member of BIL Group’s management board and head of wealth management commented: “At a time when many firms are retrenching from private banking and wealth management, we are making advances. Thierry is a talented and experienced individual, and a welcome addition to our management team as we seek to deepen our footprint in Switzerland and internationally.”

De Loriol joins Banque Internationale à Luxembourg (Suisse) SA, BIL’s Swiss subsidiary, with over 20 years’ experience in international investment and private banking. He most recently worked with Banque Cramer & Cie as an adviser to the board and held senior management posts with the Swiss banks Clariden Leu, Banque de Dépôts et de Gestion and Sinara Capital Management.

He takes over from Michel Wohl, who is moving to become adviser to the board of directors of BIL Suisse. Thierry de Loriol will chair the management board, whose other members comprise vice chairman Alfons Widmer and chief financial officer Rolf Tresch.

BNP Paribas Launches First Equity Index-Linked World Bank Green Bond

  |   For  |  0 Comentarios

BNP Paribas has launched the first World Bank Green Bond linked to an equity index comprised entirely of companies selected on the basis of their corporate sustainability ratings. The product has been designed by the capital markets teams at BNP Paribas Corporate and Investment Banking in collaboration with the World Bank, and the first issue was purchased by BNP Paribas Cardif, the group’s insurance division.

BNP Paribas and the World Bank worked together to satisfy growing investor interest in supporting both companies with good Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) track records and specific climate-friendly projects. Their collaborative effort led to the creation of a unique sustainable Equity Index-Linked investment product, with capital insured through the World Bank Green Bonds, plus exposure to the performance of the Ethical Europe Equity Index.

The World Bank Green Bonds help raise funds for projects seeking to mitigate climate change and help those affected adapt to it, while the Ethical Europe Equity Index, calculated by Solactive, selects its companies through a strict Sustainable Responsible Investing (SRI) filtering approach. The stocks in the index are selected from corporates analysed by Vigeo – an established and globally-recognised Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) rating agency. The index is based on ESG performance. Only best-in- class stocks not involved in disputable activities are selected and certified by Forum ETHIBEL, an independent Belgian ethical expert, which guarantees the strict respect of defined ethical principles. Solactive chooses its final 30 stocks using strict financial criteria: liquidity, dividend yield and volatility.

BNP Paribas Cardif purchased this first sustainable Equity Index-Linked Green Bond issued by the World Bank, a EUR50m note with a 10-year maturity. This innovative structure is perfectly in line with BNP Paribas Cardif’s CSR strategy and part of its commitment to drive progress in socially responsible investment solutions for its clients.

Doris Herrera-Pol, Director and Head of Global Capital Markets at the World Bank, said: “This is the first Equity Index-linked World Bank Green Bond. It is a further step in the development of the green bond market and expands the investor base to investors seeking to benefit from the financial performance of a sustainable equity index, while supporting climate-focused activities in World Bank member countries. We were very pleased to have worked with BNP Paribas Cardif and the capital markets teams at BNP Paribas Corporate and Investment Banking to design this structure”.

Olivier Héreil, Chief Investment Officer, BNP Paribas Cardif, comments: “This is our first purchase of an innovative sustainable investment product. With a strong commitment to Corporate Social Responsibility, BNP Paribas Cardif is honoured to be the first investor for this structure which benefits from the performance of the index for our clients and, at the same time, supports the World Bank’s climate mitigation endeavour”.

Renaud Meary, Global Head of Structured Equity, BNP Paribas Corporate and Investment Banking, says: “This investment solution is a landmark step in what is set to become a rapidly growing Sustainable and Responsible Investment market. This combines BNP Paribas’ traditional strengths in structured products, debt capital markets, and sustainable finance. It reaffirms our dedication to helping clients achieve their objectives and adapt to cultural shifts.”

Columbia Property Trust Expands San Francisco Portfolio with Acquisition of 650 California Street

  |   For  |  0 Comentarios

Columbia Property Trust compra un edificio de oficinas en San Francisco por 309 millones
650 California Street. Photo: Moed de Armas & Shannon. Columbia Property Trust Expands San Francisco Portfolio with Acquisition of 650 California Street

Columbia Property Trust announced that it has completed the acquisition of 650 California Street, a 33-story, 478,392-square-feet Class-A office tower in San Francisco, California, from Tishman Speyer and Prudential Real Estate Investors for a total purchase price of $309 million.

The purchase price includes the Company’s assumption of a $130 million loan bearing interest at 3.60% and maturing July 2019. The $179 million cash portion of the purchase price was funded with a combination of borrowings under our unsecured credit facility and cash on hand. The acquisition is expected to increase Columbia’s leverage (based on debt to gross real estate assets) from 31% at the end of the second quarter to approximately 32%. Currently 88% leased, 650 California Street is expected to have first-year in-place net operating income (NOI) of approximately $11 million.

With its desirable location in the Financial District of downtown San Francisco and protected panoramic bay views, 650 California Street has demonstrated perennial tenant appeal. The LEED Gold-certified property underwent a $14.2 million renovation over the past two years that included the addition of an onsite parking garage and a comprehensive lobby renovation, to accompany the building’s large, highly-efficient floor plates and amenities such as fitness and conference centers and bicycle parking.

Asset management and leasing of the property will be overseen by Columbia’s Western Region team, which is led by David Dowdney, Senior Vice President – Western Region. To support its growing presence in the region, the Company recently expanded its San Francisco-based team with the addition of Michael Schmidt, who brings over 13 years of portfolio and asset management experience in major West Coast markets and will have oversight of this and Columbia’s other West Coast assets.

“We have established a significant presence in downtown San Francisco — a market that continues to be one of the best in the U.S., and we continue to achieve strong leasing results at our nearby asset, 221 Main Street,” said Nelson Mills, President and CEO of Columbia Property Trust. “650 California Street is a compelling opportunity to acquire one of the premier assets in this market at a discount to replacement cost. With more than half the current tenancy rolling in the next three years and in-place rents significantly below current market levels, we expect to employ the expertise of our expanded local team to increase net operating income at this property over the next three years.

“Given the extensive experience that Dave and Mike add and their track record of successful deal sourcing and asset repositioning, I am confident we have the right team in place to lead our efforts on this asset and our continued strategic enhancement of our portfolio.”

BNY Mellon IM Continues to Expect an Eight-Year Economic Expansion in the U.S.

  |   For  |  0 Comentarios

Monetary policy divergence is not the only kind of divergence in the global economy that is contributing to a prolonged global and U.S. economic expansion, according to BNY Mellon Chief Economist Richard Hoey in his most recent Economic Update.  Hoey cites global divergences of (1) output gaps, (2) real growth, (3) inflation, (4) real interest rates, (5) real exchange rates, (6) energy sensitivities, (7) stage of the debt cycle, (8) competitiveness, and (9) policy credibility.

“With a reduction in the fiscal drag and the deleveraging drag, combined with the gradual adjustment of the financial system to restrictive financial regulation, some acceleration in the pace of U.S. economic growth is likely,” Hoey continued.  Hoey continues to expect an eight-year economic expansion in the U.S.  He believes that the U.S. economy has just made an upward shift from a half-decade of expansion at a real GDP growth rate slightly above 2% to three years of 3% real GDP growth. 

Other report highlights include:

Eurozone Faces Below-Target Inflation– While Hoey believes that Eurozone inflation is at its extreme bottom, the Eurozone faces below-target inflation for several years to come, according to the report, given excess capacity and an inefficient monetary transmission mechanism.  “The fundamentally poor design of the euro system is hampering the transmission of monetary policy,” Hoey says.  Reported inflation in the Eurozone is only slightly above zero and core inflation is below 1%. 

G4 Central Banks Likely to Split into “Normalizing Central Banks” and “ZIRP Central Banks”– Over the next several years, the G4 central banks are likely to split into (1) the “normalizing central banks” (the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve), where economic expansion appears strong enough that short-term policy rates should begin to rise in 2015 and (2) the “ZIRP central banks” (the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan), according to Hoey. (ZIRP stands for “zero interest rate policy,” which is likely to persist at the ECB and the Bank of Japan for several years, says Hoey.) 

No China Meltdown– While Hoey believes that China is undergoing a permanent downward shift to a slower sustained growth rate, he also believes that the Chinese government has both the resources and the willingness to intervene to avoid a financial meltdown. 

Large Balance Sheet at U.S. Federal Reserve – New Guidance–  In Hoey’s opinion, the final easing action of the Federal Reserve was its modification of balance sheet guidance. Hoey believes that this change in balance sheet guidance contributed to the bond market rally in the first eight months of 2014.  “The new guidance is that the Federal Reserve will be slow to reduce its bond portfolio, retaining a large balance sheet for many years rather than quickly reducing its bond portfolio,” says Hoey.  Hoey also expects that a slow pace of tightening should cause Federal Reserve policy to eventually fall “behind the curve” over the next several years, resulting in an interest rate spike in 2017 or 2018. 

“Our basic outlook continues to be that low inflation permits easy monetary policies which will support ‘a long economic expansion,'” Hoey concluded.

See this link for Hoey’s complete Economic Outlook.   

Emerging Markets – Alive and Kicking

  |   For  |  0 Comentarios

Emerging Markets -  Alive and Kicking
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrDevan Kaloo, director de Renta Variable de Mercados Emergentes Globales en Aberdeen AM, en la Conferencia para inversores de Aberdeen celebrada en Nueva York en junio de 2014. El gestor más consistente de renta variable LatAm asegura que los mercados emergentes están “vivos y coleando”

Devan Kaloo is Aberdeen’s Head of Global Emerging Markets – Equities. He is also de portfolio manager of Aberdeen’s Latin America Equity Funds, for which he has been rated by Citywire as the most consistent portfolio manager over a 5 year period in the Latin American Equities arena. Aberdeen’s successful Global Emerging Markets Equity team, headed by Kaloo, is responsible for a series of strategies including the popular Emerging Markets Equity strategy, at capacity currently, and the Emerging Markets Infrastructure Strategy.

This is a summary of the ideas exposed by Devan Kaloo, speaking at the Aberdeen Investment Conference, “Home and Away: Why a Global Investment Approach Makes Sense,” in New York City
 on June 2014

According to Kaloo, there are three key reasons why investors have been wary of emerging markets:


1. Tapering. The Fed is printing less money, meaning that scarcer money is causing a rise in interest rates and a rise in the cost of capital for emerging markets.

2. China. Growth in the world’s second-largest economy has slowed significantly (Chart 1). As growth slows, the Chinese government continues to pump in fixed asset-led investment to stay about the 7% gross domestic product (GDP) growth standard, which can potentially lead to asset bubbles.

3. Earnings. Emerging market corporate profitability has declined since 2010 (Chart 2), whereas the profitability of developed market companies remains flat.

The China Syndrome

Even as EMs continue to pick up steam and recover from the woes of 2013, the slowdown in China is still very much on investors’ minds. According to Kaloo, a major crisis in China would arise in one of two scenarios: a liquidity crisis caused by depositors fleeing and a banking collapse, or a solvency crisis caused by unbearable debt. “In the case of China,” Kaloo said, “the likelihood of either of those crises actually occurring is pretty minimal.” China’s financial system is funded domestically, and the Chinese government is to cover outstanding debt. Overall, Kaloo believes that fears over a hard landing in China are “overblown.”

Doctor, is there hope of a recovery?

Kaloo noted that emerging markets—like their developed market counterparts—have not
been immune to downturns. Over the past two decades, they suffered the 1994 “tequila crisis” in Mexico and the 2007-09 global financial crisis (Chart 3). Kaloo argued that the recent downturn is similar to the others—cyclical, not structural, and likely soon to pass. “Somehow we always seem to stagger back,” Kaloo said. “When you actually look at any longer track record for emerging markets you can see that despite the volatility, despite the risks, emerging markets have been a better place to invest for the longer term than developed markets.”

Elaborating on the cyclical nature of the latest downturn, Kaloo pointed to the post-crisis growth of emerging economies. After the
crisis, EMs (and the companies within them) grew quickly. This resulted in a sharp rise in imports, paired with flat export growth—an unsustainable model, in Kaloo’s view. On the upside, trade balances have improved since the start of 2014 and have mainly balanced, with EM (ex-China) slightly outpacing the “fragile five”— India, Indonesia, Turkey, South Africa and Brazil.

For much of 2013, investors worried about
the future of those countries. In 2014, their economies have improved dramatically. In Kaloo’s view, these economies have been forced to tackle their issues “the old-fashioned way”—by slowing the growth of credit and raising interest rates.

Looking forward

Kaloo concluded that being negative on emerging markets is the popular but misguided view of the moment. “What is happening in emerging markets is a cyclical adjustment,”
he reaffirmed in closing. “These things
happen. The cost of capital is going up and
it’s forcing discipline on many companies and countries and they are adjusting.” Emerging markets continue to see an emergence of a new “business class” who understand what is necessary to build a profitable business.

Kalooreinforced that investing in emerging markets is always about companies, not countries. With emerging market companies refocusing on their operating margins, he expects profits to improve significantly within a year. Citing improving balance sheets, hopeful election results and a return to profitability, Aberdeen’s Head of Global Emerging Markets finally assigned a positive prognosis: emerging markets are alive and kicking.