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Cambridge University and Newton Investment Management Announce Partnership on Long-Horizon Investing

Cambridge University Judge Business School’s Centre for Endowment Asset Management has entered into a five-year partnership with Newton Investment Management, part of BNY Mellon. This partnership will enable the Centre to further extend its research and educational efforts in the area of long-horizon investing. In recognition of this support, the unit will be renamed the Newton Centre for Endowment Asset Management.

Commenting on the new support arrangement and her firm’s partnership with Cambridge, Newton Chief Executive, Helena Morrissey CBE, said: “Newton has been a long-term supporter of the Centre for Endowment Asset Management. We share the Centre’s commitment to helping long-horizon investors make appropriate investment decisions. We look forward to collaborating with Professor Elroy Dimson and his team, and furthering the understanding of investment decisions and their impact on institutional returns. This underlines our commitment to the not-for-profit and charities sector.”

Newton believes in the importance of independent academic research, and the potential for long-term value creation through bridging the gaps between research, practice and policy. This complements the Centre’s aim of furthering academic knowledge and practitioner understanding of key themes linked to long-term investing. As well as the opportunities and challenges for long-horizon investors, the Centre’s agenda includes historical perspectives on current investment concerns and research on responsible investment strategies.

Centre Chairman, Professor Elroy Dimson, explained that: “The partnership with Newton will reinforce Cambridge University’s ongoing collaboration with practitioners, academics and organisations that take a long-term view of investment. Under the leadership of founding Academic Director Dr David Chambers, the Centre will be a global focus for research and education among academic institutes, asset owners and investment professionals.”

The Centre’s plans include the seventh iteration of the Endowment Asset Management Programme – an annual three-day forum held at Cambridge University, which brings together practitioners and academics with an interest in long-horizon investing. In March 2015, the Programme will, for the first time, include sovereign wealth funds alongside foundations, charities, endowments and family offices from around the world.

The Centre aims to continue publishing in the world’s most highly rated academic and practitioner journals. There is also a commitment to developing case studies of leading long-term investors to be used for interactive classroom teaching. Other activities include a biennial academic conference run in collaboration with the Vienna University of Economics and Business and supported by the POK Puhringer Foundation, and an annual research prize awarded in conjunction with the Commonfund Institute.

The Director of Cambridge Judge Business School, Professor Christoph Loch, added: “The Newton Centre for Endowment Asset Management, with its emphasis on rigorous research combined with practical relevance, is an exciting initiative. Cambridge Judge Business School values scholarship that has an impact on business and society, and Newton’s support is greatly valued by the School.”

Newton’s relationship with Cambridge University is built on a foundation of academic and sporting excellence. Newton has been the title sponsor of the Women’s Boat Race of Cambridge and Oxford Universities since a partnership was formed in 2010. The initiative aims to support and promote the development and improvement of the standard of women’s rowing clubs and equality in the sport. Newton’s parent company, BNY Mellon, is the title sponsor of the men’s race, held on the River Thames each spring. The two firms are working towards parity for the Women’s Boat Race and the Men’s Boat Race, in a joint initiative that will bring The Newton Women’s Boat Race to the Tideway in 2015, ensuring both events take place on the same day over the same historic Putney to Mortlake course.

A New Breed of Robotics

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Earlier this fall, I attended the International Manufacturing Technology Show in Chicago, where companies from around the world came to showcase new products that utilize the latest in cutting edge manufacturing technologies, such as machine tools, robotics and various automation components. The biannual tradeshow is the largest of its kind in the world, a virtual theme park for manufacturing geeks. Despite the oft-mentioned talk of offshoring, manufacturing in America continues to grow at a healthy pace, driven by autos, aerospace and energy-related fields. Thanks to the expansion of these relatively higher value-added industries, productivity of manufacturing in the U.S. has seen impressive improvement in recent years. Capital spending has also been robust as companies seek to capitalize on business opportunities. However, such manufacturers are also keen to adopt more automation and robotics to help keep fixed costs in check.

“Collaborative robots” were among the new products I saw at this September’s show. The majority of today’s industrial robots are not made to work alongside humans as they are simply too powerful and not equipped with safety systems. On a production line, robots are typically housed inside metal cages to keep their human operators safe. This isn’t much of an issue if you have a large enough factory but as manufacturers seek to replace human processes with robots, they often find that the existing factory floor space is insufficient to make these metal cages. That’s where these collaborative robots come into play. These robots are equipped with sensors and other safety systems allowing them to operate in tight spaces alongside employees. They are also covered in a soft foam material and color coded to differentiate them from other non-collaborative robots. It will be interesting to see how this new type of robot is accepted in the market over the next few years.

Something else that caught my eye during the show was a project to build a car with a 3D printer. These 3D printing products, also known as additive manufacturing, had me feeling quite skeptical. Individual components were showcased as they were completed but ultimately, I wasn’t impressed. The parts looked like a lump of unfinished rubbery string, not aesthetically pleasing. I had been envisioning a ready-to-go product coming off the printer but the technology does not seem to be there yet. Don’t get me wrong. I think 3D printing is an exciting technology, but there are clearly areas where 3D printing will make sense and others where it won’t at all. Products like medical implants seem to be a good application, given the ability to customize the dimensions easily. However, slow production cycles and stringent quality requirements may limit adoption of 3D printing in areas like autos and aerospace. We will keep our eyes open for any technology breakthroughs that can speed up the adoption of such printing for manufacturing purposes.

Attending these tradeshows rarely leads to immediate investment decisions. However, they do help us better understand the industry and factors that may affect a sector’s future growth. And hey, where else can I play blackjack with a two-armed robot dealer.

Opinion column by Kenichi Amaki, portfolio manager at Matthews Asia.

The views and information discussed represent opinion and an assessment of market conditions at a specific point in time that are subject to change. It should not be relied upon as a recommendation to buy and sell particular securities or markets in general. The subject matter contained herein has been derived from several sources believed to be reliable and accurate at the time of compilation. Matthews International Capital Management, LLC does not accept any liability for losses either direct or consequential caused by the use of this information. Investing in international and emerging markets may involve additional risks, such as social and political instability, market illiquidity, exchange-rate fluctuations, a high level of volatility and limited regulation. In addition, single-country funds may be subject to a higher degree of market risk than diversified funds because of concentration in a specific geographic location. Investing in small- and mid-size companies is more risky than investing in large companies, as they may be more volatile and less liquid than large companies. This document has not been reviewed or approved by any regulatory body.

AdvisorShares TrimTabs Float Shrink ETF Earns Five-Star Morningstar Rating

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AdvisorShares announced that the AdvisorShares TrimTabs Float Shrink ETF (NYSE Arca: TTFS) has received a Five-Star Morningstar Rating for both its three-year and overall risk adjusted performances from inception through October 31, 2014 out of 347 funds in Morningstar’s Mid-Cap Blend category.

TTFS is managed by TrimTabs Asset Management (TrimTabs), a Sausalito, Calif.-based SEC registered investment advisor affiliated with TrimTabs Investment Research, the renowned independent institutional research firm founded by Charles Biderman that focuses on equity market liquidity.

In pursuing its investment strategy, TTFS invests in companies that shrink their equity float—the total number of shares publicly available for trading—while growing free cash flow and reducing leverage on their balance sheets. These are important attributes that differentiate TTFS from a passive approach to buyback investing. Utilizing a quantitative algorithm, the manager screens approximately 3,000 U.S. companies on a daily basis and then invests in their highest ranked 100 stocks for TTFS’ equal-weighted portfolio. TrimTabs’ liquidity research shows that companies using free cash flow to shrink the trading float of shares create a potentially profitable supply and demand imbalance as more money chases fewer shares, and TTFS’ performance reinforces that notion. Since its inception on October 4, 2011, and through October 31, 2014, TTFS has outperformed the Russell 3000 Index.

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Morningstar compares each ETF’s risk-adjusted return, with at least a three-year history, to the open-end mutual fund rating breakpoints for each of its respective categories. Consistent with the open-end mutual fund ratings, TTFS earned its five-star ranking as being in the top 10% of funds – that includes both ETFs and mutual funds – in the Mid-Cap Blend category.

“We are pleased that TTFS becomes yet another domestic equity strategy from AdvisorShares transparent actively managed ETF suite to earn a Five-Star Morningstar Rating™,” said Noah Hamman, chief executive officer of AdvisorShares. “Although statistically speaking it’s difficult for active equity managers to outperform their benchmark indexes, it’s not hard to find those managers who produce alpha especially when they’re fully transparent. This ranking is further testament to TrimTabs industry-leading portfolio management delivered with the sought-after benefits of a transparent active ETF structure.”

“For decades, our industry-leading liquidity research has shown that companies with positive free cash flow that engage in float shrink can create a profitable supply and demand imbalance as more money chases fewer shares,” said Mr. Biderman, chief executive officer of TrimTabs and co-portfolio manager of TTFS. “Our key assumption is that the enterprise value should not drop at companies that use a portion of their free cash flow to reduce the number of shares outstanding. Indeed over the past three years we have discovered that price of the remaining shares have gone up by more than the percentage of share count reduction.”

Is this the Road to Normalization? Launching: 2015 Market Assumptions

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The increased market turbulence in the last couple of weeks is driving investors to question if they should be repositioning their investment portfolios, whether the current volatility is a new normal, and what will happen to different asset classes as interest rates start to rise and inflation moves further up the agenda.

Now in its nineteenth year, the newly launched 2015 Long Term Capital Market Return Assumptions by J.P. Morgan Asset Management aims to help investors answer these burning questions and navigate the increasingly complex investment universe.

Anthony Werley, Chief Portfolio Strategist in J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s Endowments and Foundations Group, and one of the leading authors of the paper, said, “It has been six years since the end of the great recession and we are certainly on the road to normalization. In general, due to continued headwinds, we believe that diversification across geographies and asset classes will be rewarded in the longer term.”

He continued, “Globally, we see decoupling continuing as the eurozone and Japan actively pursue easier monetary policies and the monetary policy cycle turns in the UK and US. In the US, we believe growth will be constrained compared to prior cycles and that inflation will remain range bound. In addition, long-term nominal return expectations for US treasuries, corporate bonds and equities are more subdued and the implied risk premia arguably offers limited protection against any missteps in the policy normalization process.”

The Assumptions put forward different considerations and opportunities for investors with different objectives, for example:

Opportunities for investors in search of diversification:
- Use diversified hedge funds as fixed income substitute
- Invest in commodities for their diversification benefit
- Add duration in non-US government bond markets where central banks are easing
Opportunities for investors in search of higher returns:
- Reconsider the case for emerging markets where valuations are lower and top-line growth is likely to be higher
- Add direct or indirect leverage while funding rates are low
- Invest in less liquid markets such as value-added real estate and private equity

As well as providing vital information to investment decision makers across all types of investors, including pension funds, wealth managers, insurance companies and endowments, the Assumptions also form the investment principles around J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s multi-asset portfolios, which include defined contribution target date funds, multi-asset income funds and tailored strategies within the Solutions Group.

Please click here to view the full report.

Greg Saichin Looks Back over His First Year with Allianz GI

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Greg Saichin joined Allianz Global Investors on 23 September 2013 to build a new emerging market debt business. A 26-year veteran of the asset class, here is his personal reflection on the journey and his hopes for the future.

“I walked through the doors of Allianz Global Investors for the first time last September with a sense that big things were about to happen. The company had energy and momentum following its transformation to a single brand and I was excited and proud to be asked to create a new business in this challenging asset class that I know and love.

The so-called taper tantrum was still fresh in my mind, but I was confident in my plan to assemble a team of experienced portfolio managers, credit analysts and traders, who would be able to protect and build value for clients when US interest rates finally rise. Twelve months on, I can tell you that the team has exceeded my expectations and I am still more than a little surprised at how far we have come in so short a space of time. One year at AllianzGI has been like four or five years anywhere else!

Let me share with you some of the important milestones from our journey so far.

The first challenge came for me and my colleagues, Oleksiy Soroka and Zeke Diwan, when we took over management of the Allianz Emerging Markets Bond strategy just three months after entering the company. By April 2014, we had been joined by a further five professionals – Naveen Kunam, Shahzad Hasan, Vlad Andryushchenko, Eoghan McDonagh and Daniel Haas we launched three new funds to extend the global EMD coverage and complete the first stage of my strategic plan. We launched a fourth fund in the US at the beginning of September, taking total assets under management to an impressive US$1.8bn. I could not be more pleased with this progress, but this is just the beginning of a very ambitious plan to make Allianz Global Investors a benchmark in global emerging markets debt management.

We are sovereign specialists and credit experts, who combine top-down country analysis with bottom up credit research to construct portfolios across the entire EMD risk spectrum.

Emerging market debt is a vast, varied and at times volatile asset class that can deliver a valuable contribution to overall portfolios in the hands of experienced, specialist investors. Given this scale and complexity, I felt it was essential for Allianz GI to have a global presence augmented by decentralized decision making so that our regional teams are empowered to act in the interests of clients in real time.

Our coverage of Latin America, Emerging Asia and Central & Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa is hence driven out of New York, Hong Kong and London, where I am pleased to say that we are regarded as local investors, with all the privilege and credibility that status conveys.

Our investment process benefits from duality as well. We are sovereign specialists and credit experts, who combine top-down country analysis with bottom up credit research to construct portfolios across the entire EMD risk spectrum. How does this work in practice, I hear you say. Well, take Chinese real estate as an example.

Around 20 to 25 million people a year are moving from the Chinese countryside to the cities, requiring significant investment in urban infrastructure. Great sovereign angle. Yet, there is not enough public finance available for all these projects, which is where bottom up analysis of the private companies that have stepped up to fill the funding gap can be so invaluable.

Quite simply, you cannot afford to enter the sector through third level builders in third tier cities without a firm conviction. In this context, we look for well-run companies that can pre-fund cash flows throughout the lifecycle of a construction project, usually because they have existing credit lines and a strong relationship with local banks. They must also have a track-record of delivering projects on time and be on good terms with the local authorities, which are influential if not key to this entire sector.

Another example of personal relevance to me, is my native Argentina. I have anticipated that it would default twice in the last 13 years and I cut my exposure to zero ahead of both occasions. A money manager needs to understand the emotional drivers that may impact investment decisions and flows in the wider markets without falling victim to such influence himself. This was an example, however, of how the diverse cultural backgrounds in our team give us a unique insight into how events will unfold in a particular country. On both those occasions, the market thought that Argentina would avoid a default, and on both occasions I knew the market was wrong! Similarly, in the CEEMEA region, we took early action to diversify away from Russia before the full extent of the country’s involvement in Ukraine had unfolded. As a native of Ukraine, Oleksiy’s cultural insight was crucial to that decision.

AllianzGI’s EMD team has achieved a huge amount in a short space of time, but we have ambitions to do far more in the years to come. In 2015, we plan to further refine our investment process to ultimately scale up conviction ideas into multiple client solutions. As much as I am proud of what we have achieved, I am even more enthused about what we will do in the year ahead.”

New Research about Investment “Popularity” Featured in 40th Anniversary Issue of Journal of Portfolio Management

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The Journal of Portfolio Management has selected “Dimensions of Popularity” by Roger Ibbotson and Thomas Idzorek for its prestigious 40^th anniversary issue. Ibbotson, Ph.D., is founder of Ibbotson Associates, chairman and chief investment officer of Zebra Capital Management, and professor of finance at the Yale School of Management, and Idzorek, CFA, is head of the Morningstar Investment Management group, a unit of Morningstar, Inc. Morningstar acquired Ibbotson Associates in 2006.

“Investors have long viewed the world through the risk-reward paradigm. They recognized that with greater risk comes greater return. This holds true when examining asset class performance—stocks are riskier than bonds and, on average over time, produce higher returns; small capitalization stocks are more volatile than large capitalization stocks, but outperform in the long run,” Idzorek said. “At the individual security level, however, this truism of investing—that with more risk comes more return—isn’t supported by historical data. The risk-reward paradigm also doesn’t explain many of the other premiums and anomalies we see in the market.”

In “Dimensions of Popularity,” Ibbotson and Idzorek identify the most common market premiums and anomalies, such as:

Small cap—Smaller capitalization stocks outperform larger capitalization stocks
Valuation—Value companies beat growth companies
Liquidity—Less liquid stocks best those with more liquidity
Momentum—Stocks trending up will continue to trend up

Because the risk-return framework does not explain all these premiums and anomalies seen in the market, the researchers propose the unifying “theory of popularity.” They explain that the most common market premiums and anomalies are associated with a stock’s popularity or unpopularity. For example, if investors “vote with their dollars,” small cap companies have gotten fewer votes. Value companies commonly have something wrong with them, which makes them unpopular.

If an asset has characteristics that investors really dislike, such as low liquidity, little name recognition, or high volatility, its price will be lower and therefore its expected future returns will be higher, all other things being equal. According to the theory of popularity, if an investor were to rank stocks by popularity, he or she could buy a basket of unpopular stocks and systematically rebalance as the stocks become more popular by buying a new portfolio of relatively less popular stocks. As some of the stocks in the portfolio become more popular over time, they become more valuable and the investor will see appreciation.

Ibbotson and Idzorek test this theory by sorting the universe of stocks by popularity, as defined by share turnover, and dividing them into quartiles each year from 1972 through 2013. They find that stocks in the lowest quartile of share turnover—the least popular stocks—outperformed the highest quartile by more than 7 percentage points per year over the period studied.

“Risk has become a catch-all for all of the attributes that investors do not like, but riskiness does not explain all the anomalies we see in the market. Value premiums are a perfect example. Stocks with low market-to-book ratios or low price-earnings ratios are not necessarily more volatile or less liquid, but we know that over time value stocks beat growth stocks. We need a new model for explaining investment performance that goes beyond risk and return. Popularity may be a better lens through which to view investment behavior,” Ibbotson said. “Many of the well-known market premiums are associated with unpopular stocks. Unpopular stocks tend to be smaller, less liquid, and perceived as lacking growth potential. These stocks, with their low relative prices, may offer investors better future performance as they move along the spectrum toward popularity.”

Click here to view the paper.

Four Family Office Industry Pioneers Honored with the FOX Founders Award

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Family Office Exchange (FOX), a global membership organization of private family enterprises, their family offices, and key advisors, bestowed the FOX Founders Award on four family office industry pioneers at the 25th Anniversary FOX Forum in Chicago on October 29, 2014.

The honorees were Christine K. Galloway, President and CEO of Okabena Company, Dirk Jungé, Chairman of Pitcairn, Patricia M. Soldano, Chairman – Western Region at GenSpring Family Offices, and Loraine Tsavaris, Managing Director at Rockefeller & Company.

In presenting the awards, Sara Hamilton, Founder and CEO of FOX, commented, “Each of these individuals is the epitome of our best industry leaders, but in very unique ways. They were all pioneers in changing the wealth management industry to better serve the ultra-wealthy client. ”

The FOX Founders Award has only been presented once before– in 2009 to James E. Hughes, Jr., at the 20th Anniversary FOX Fall Forum.

Chris Galloway has worked for the Okabena Company, a single family office in Minneapolis, for 21 years. Retiring at the end of the year, she says, “Nothing is more meaningful than my role as ‘trusted Advisor’ to multiple generations of family members.”

Dirk Jungé, a fourth generation Pitcairn family member, is an outstanding example of a family leader who has served as a family steward for over 40 years. There is an old saying: “If you don’t create change, change will create you.” Dirk understands the need for innovation, coupled with his commitment to the time-tested principles that create family success, characterize his leadership style and underlie the business model of the 90-year old family office.

Pat Soldano has worked tirelessly for the past 20 years campaigning for elimination of the death tax based on her experiencing the devastating impact of estate taxes on families in her advisory practice. She founded The Policy and Taxation Group to educate lawmakers on the issues and impact of estate taxes on families.

The final recipient, Loraine Tsavaris, has been an advisor to families and to aspiring wealth advisors for more than 40 years. A strong supporter of FOX conducted research, she participated in the first FOX Thought Leaders Summit in 2004 about Conflicts of Interest and in every Thought Leaders Summit since.

Evercore Completes Acquisition of ISI Group

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Evercore Partners has announced that it completed on October 31, 2014 the acquisition of the ISI International Strategy & Investment and the remainder of its legacy Institutional Equities business.

The acquisition positions Evercore as an elite and scaled provider of non-proprietary capital markets advice and execution, broadening Evercore’s Investment Banking business and expanding its growth opportunities. The business, Evercore ISI, will initially provide macro research, as well as fundamental research coverage of more than 600 companies across 12 industries, or approximately 60% of the combined market cap of the S&P 500. Evercore ISI will serve more than 1,500 institutional investors globally, including the largest asset managers and fund complexes in the world.

“We are excited to announce the closing of the ISI transaction, moving us one step closer to our goal of creating the most elite independent investment banking advisory firm in the world,” said Ralph Schlosstein, President and Chief Executive Officer. “While it is still early days, client feedback to date affirms our expectation that Evercore ISI will have a positive effect on the growth rate of our overall Investment Banking business and that the Equities business will be an attractive business in its own right. Since the announcement of the acquisition in August, ISI has achieved a #5 ranking for its research product from Institutional Investor, and the firm has had record revenues in September and October, reflecting the support for this transaction from institutional investors globally. We are excited to welcome the entire ISI team to Evercore.”

“This step creates a broader and more effective banking firm because it provides Evercore with premier skills in all aspects of equities,” said Roger Altman, Executive Chairman. “I look forward eagerly to working with our new ISI colleagues.”

“Our clients’ support for this transaction has been extremely positive,” said Ed Hyman, Evercore ISI’s Chairman. “The combination of talent from the ISI and Evercore Equities businesses has created a powerhouse in research and distribution and we look forward to continuing to serve our expanded client network with the highest quality independent research, analysis and advice.”

Henderson Appoints Glen Finegan as Head of Emerging Market Equities

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Henderson Global Investors has hired Glen Finegan as Head of Emerging Market Equities. He will join the Henderson team on 5 January 2015.

Glen will report to Graham Kitchen, Head of Equities, and will have responsibility for managing the £1bn (€1.26bn / US$1.73bn) global emerging markets’ equities’ (GEM) franchise based in the UK.

Most recently Glen was a senior portfolio manager at First State Stewart covering GEM all cap strategies. He managed US$3bn as lead manager and was co-lead on US$10bn. Before joining First State Stewart in 2001 he was a geophysicist within the oil and gas industry.

In addition, as part of the wider review of the emerging markets business, Chris Palmer will leave Henderson. Chris joined during the Gartmore acquisition in 2011 and served as Director of Emerging Market Equities.

deVere Group Launches its Flagship Investment Strategy Division

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deVere Group announced the launch of deVere Investment Strategy that will be headed by Tom Elliott, a former Executive Director at JP Morgan Asset Management, who has 25 years experience in the financial sector and was appointed deVere Group´s International Investment Strategies in 2013.

The independent financial advisory organizations, which has a growing presence across America, has officially introduced its new Investment Strategy division. deVere Group, has 80,000 clients globally and more than $10bn under advice and management.

The founder and chief executive of deVere Group, Nigel Green, comments: “We’re thrilled to announce the introduction of deVere Investment Strategy, a free service that aims to help investors better understand the economic, political and social factors that drive capital markets, and which in turn influence returns on portfolios.

“This pioneering service, which offers a comprehensive view of global economies, regular updates on current stock markets and fixed income trends, in-depth analysis and detailed outlooks from Tom Elliott, one of the best-known and experienced experts in his field, is unlike any other in our sector.

“We’re confident that deVere Investment Strategy will be a powerful tool in helping our clients make informed investment decisions”.

He continues: “The launch of deVere Investment Strategy underscores our commitment to using our resources to continually lead and shape the industry and is further evidence of our laser-like dedication to helping clients hit their important goals through intelligent insights.”

For his part, Mr Elliott comments: “After months of strategic planning, research and development, I’m incredibly excited about the introduction of this trailblazing service that requires no fees or logins and that I hope will add real value to investors.

“An informed investor is a smarter investor and as such I look forward to delivering timely and relevant commentaries.” “It’s a privilege to be able to be working directly with our clients and helping them to reach and hopefully exceed their financial objectives by providing a holistic, bespoke approach to investment advice.”