Foto: Thomas8047
. Los hedge funds van camino de registrar su peor ejercicio desde 2011, aunque superan al S&P 500
The Preqin All-Strategies Hedge Fund benchmark returned -1.44% in September, marking another difficult month for hedge funds as relative value funds were the only top-level strategy to see positive performance. This is the fourth consecutive month of negative returns for hedge funds, the longest negative period since Jun – Nov 2008. Overall returns for 2015 YTD now stand at only 0.18%, with the year on course to have the lowest returns since 2011. However, with the S&P 500 currently returning -3.14% for the year so far, hedge funds are still outperforming public markets.
On Monday October 19th, the Government of Uruguay, following the line used by other emerging countries, sought after external funding prior to the US Federal Reserve decides to raiseinterest rates. Uruguay, which has investment grade ratings of Baa2 / BBB / BBB-, launched a global bond US dollar denominated maturing at 2027, and it also offered to buy back government bonds maturing at 2017, 2022, 2024 and 2025; whose outstanding amount is around 2,800 million dollars, according to Reuters.
Uruguay launched its new 2027 maturing US dollar denominated bonds at a spread of Treasuries plus 245bp, according to one of the lead managers of the transaction. The launch spread is at the tight end of guidance of 250bp area and inside initial price thoughts of 265bp area. The amortizing bond has an average life of around 11 years and is part of a broader liability management operation.
The deal is being done in conjunction with a one-day cash tender for outstanding 9.25% 2017s, 8% 2022s, 4.5% 2024s and 6.875% 2025s, for which Uruguay is offering a purchase price of 114, 127.50, 106.00 and 119, respectively.
The new money component of the trade is around US$ 1.2 billion, the lead manager said. Citigroup, HSBC and Itau BBA are the lead managers on the transaction.
According to Axa IM, you can add risky assets in the short term “but beware of 2016”. The asset manager believes that after a sharp slowdown in the first half of the year, the global economy is stabilizing. “Yet, sluggish demand, -especially in China, led us to trim our global GDP forecast for 2016 from 3.3% to 3.1%.”
They believe that while US consumers remain on a strong footing, weaker global demand will weigh on the manufacturing sector, thus they see US growth at 2.2% in 2016, down from the previous 2.5%. In regards to China, because of a construction overhang, their estimate is 6.3%. In Europe and on the back of the VW scandal, they believe growth will be of 1.4%.
Considering the softer environment lived in the first half of 2015, Axa thinks growth will prevail. “If anything, the next quarters might see a gentle improvement in growth momentum” they say, adding that they do not believe that the later-than- expected Fed hike is a negative, that valuations have corrected sufficiently and that equity markets “are simply oversold”.
Nevertheless they warn that “While we remain overweight in the near term, we reckon that clouds are gathering over our longer term equity view. Today we suggest reducing our long-held overweight. First, 2016 is expected to see mildly weaker overall growth around the globe and the risks for 2017 are presumably skewed to the downside.”
Foto: August Brill
. Londres supera a Nueva York y lidera el Global Financial Centers Index
London has moved ahead of New York to reclaim the number one position in the eighteenth Global Financial Centres Index, published by Z/Yen Group and sponsored by the Qatar Financial Centre Authority. This year edition of the Index (GFCI 18) rates 84 financial centers.
This are the top 10
London climbed 12 points in the ratings to lead New York by eight points. The GFCI is on a scale of 1,000 points and a lead of eight is thus fairly insignificant. “We prefer to see London and New York as complimentary rather than purely competitive” says the company. It is noticeable that assessments for London have been higher since the general election in May 2015.
London, New York, Hong Kong, and Singapore remain the four leading global financial centers. New York, in second place is now 33 points ahead of Hong Kong in third. Tokyo, in fifth place, is 25 points behind the leaders.
Western European centersshow signs of recovery. The leading centers in Europe are London, Zurich and Geneva as in GFCI 17 and Frankfurt has moved up into fourth place just ahead of Luxembourg. Of the 29 centers in this region, 23 centers rose in the ratings with Dublin doing particularly well. Liechtenstein appears in the GFCI for the first time and is ranked 60th. Reykjavik continues to reverse some of its recent decline.
Eastern European and Central Asian centers prosper. The leading center in this region is now Warsaw in 38th place, just ahead of Istanbul. The top seven centers all saw an increase in their ratings but the largest decline in this region was St Petersburg.
Twelve of the top 15 Asia/Pacific centers see a rise in their ratings. With the exception of Hong Kong and Singapore, the top Asia/Pacific financial centers have all seen their ratings increase in GFCI 18. Hong Kong, Singapore, Tokyo and Seoul remain in the GFCI Top 10.
All North American centers are up in the ratings. However, due to continuing rise of some Asian centers, San Francisco, Chicago, Boston, Vancouver and Calgary and suffered small declines in the ranks. Toronto remains the leading Canadian center and is now the second North American center behind only New York.
Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro rise strongly. Sao Paulo remains the top Latin American center in GFCI 18, and along with Rio de Janeiro, made significant progress n the ratings and rankings. Mexico was the only center that fell in the GFCI ratings. The Cayman Islands and the Bahamas also showed good improvements.
Mark Yeandle, Associate Director at the Z/Yen Group and the author of the GFCI said “Whilst London and New York still lead the field, the next four centers are all Asian.”
Even though the rapid decline in oil prices is coming to an end, for many oil producers -like those in the shale market in the US and offshore oil fields-, the current oil price is a problem. According to Chris Iggo, CIO Fixed Income Europe and Asia at AXA Investment Managers, “lower prices are pushing commodity-reliant countries to devalue their currencies and Saudi Arabia recently announced that the current oil price has forced them to sell some foreign investments to cover a fund deficit.”
Nick Hayes, manager of the AXA WF Global Strategic Bonds, believes that“The declining oil price has also impacted high yield markets… We favour nominal bonds over inflation-linked bonds given the outlook for inflation. The main concern for us now is where oil prices will settle, and it’s important for fixed income investors to lower their expectations of inflation given the chance that falling commodity prices will continue to impact the level of inflation.”
During the last year, the managers have been decreasing the amount of high yield and emerging market debt exposure and they believe that we will see a rise in government bond yields once the current risk-off environment subsides. “A bear market in credit has created opportunities for us – especially with the increase in the number of negative credit ‘events’ which means we can increase credit allocations at higher spreads and yields,” says Hayes.
In regards to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy, they believe that “the US economy will continue to prosper, which will periodically get people excited about the potential for a rate hike, but the global economic environment is likely to stay weak. The domestic US labour market is still very tight, but wages are picking up, as they are in the UK. However, higher wages don’t immediately translate into inflation. Core inflation has so far stayed low, removing oil from the calculation. It’s difficult to have a view on 1-2 year inflation figures, but central banks will continue to set rates to reach inflation targets. What I would like to see is the Fed being more decisive – raise the rates and be confident about the state of the US economy.” Considering this, Hayes prefers the Eurozone over US interest rate risk. “Given attractive valuations, we have increased our allocation to investment grade corporate bonds, which has started to offer interesting yield levels for high quality credit, ” he comments.
Schroders was awarded the coveted ‘Best International Fund Group’ award at The Incisive Media International Fund & Product Awards 2015 held in London on October 7th. The award recognises Schroders for the excellence of its digital strategy and strength of its product proposition, as well as outstanding fund performance over three years.
In a highly competitive category, Schroders scooped first place above other well-known players in international asset management, which included the likes of GAM, BlackRock, Fidelity and more.
Additionally, Schroders’ Chief Executive, Michael Dobson, has been awarded the 2015 ‘Financial News Decade of Excellence’award, which recognises his leadership in the strong growth of Schroders’ profits and assets under management since 2001.
Of the award, Carla Bergareche, Head at Schroders Spain and Portugal commented “We have a strong local distribution presence around the globe and in all the major global financial centres, stretching back over 50 years. Through this we have nurtured long-standing relationships with our clients, maintaining an open dialogue based on professionalism and trust.” Adding that “We believe that digital is a key area of development to enhance our approach to servicing, engaging and communicating with our clients. We have put this into effect via the recent launch of the Schroders incomeIQ initiative, a knowledge centre which features investment guides and tools. People can also take the incomeIQ test designed to reveal investors’ behavioural biases and provide useful tips to empower advisers and investors in their decision making. We are pleased to have won the awards in recognition of our drive for excellence in delivering added value to our clients and wider society. We will continue to innovate across all aspects of our business to help meet the needs of our clients.”
You can review the list of winners and Finalist in the following link
Bob Thomas - Foto cedida. Henderson Global Investors amplía su equipo de renta variable inmobiliaria global
Following an announcement made to clients in May this year, Henderson Global Investors has further expanded its global property equities team with the addition of a dedicated North American property equities team.
Bob Thomas was appointed head of North American property equities, joining the global asset manager in August. Bob is based in Henderson’s Chicago office. His previous role was co-head of North American listed real estate at AMP Capital. Bob brings over 13 years’ experience in real estate securities, having previously worked for BNP Paribas Asset Management and Nuveen Asset Management.
Greg Kuhl has also joined the team in Chicago as portfolio manager and will work with Bob to build out the offering. He joins from Brookfield Investment Management where he worked on North American and global long only and long-short real estate funds. Finally, this month, Mike Engels joined as an analyst. He previously worked at Brookfield Investment Management.
Bob, Greg and Mike, will work with existing global fund managers, Guy Barnard and Tim Gibson, to manage the team’s existing global mandates. This transition will take place on the 1 November. As a result of this decision, management of the North American sleeves of Henderson’s global property equities funds will be brought in-house. Since 2007, Harrison Street Securities, the US-based real estate investment firm, was mandated to manage this part of the portfolio.
Graham Kitchen, head of equities at Henderson, comments: “As a truly global business, and with recent acquisitions in the US developing our in-house equity expertise, it is a logical step to bring the management of North American property equities in-house. Not only do we believe this best serves clients in the existing global funds, but it also enables us to further develop the franchise and product offering in the future.”
Guy Barnard, co-head of global property equities based in London, says: “We’ve worked with Harrison Street for eight years and thank them for the service they have provided. Looking ahead, a strengthened property securities team, with dedicated portfolio managers in all of our key regions, will enable us to pursue a more integrated global investment process that will best serve our clients’ needs. The integration process has been carefully managed over a number of months, meaning we expect a seamless transition next month.
The build-out of the global property equities team reflects Henderson’s drive to provide quality products with consistent superior performance to our clients across the world.”
Tim Gibson, co-head of global property equities based in Singapore, adds: “Hiring quality people to help develop our global offering is intrinsic to our success, and we are happy to be in a position to attract high caliber managers such as Bob and Greg. They both have strong reputations, excellent track records and high conviction, bottom-up driven investment processes that are aligned to our own. ”
Foto: Context, the AB Blog on Investing. Riesgo de Liquidez: lo que los gestores de renta fija no están entendiendo
Remember the story of the blind men and the elephant? One man grabs the tail; another, the trunk; another, a tusk—yet nobody knows what the animal looks like. Liquidity risk is like that elephant. It’s easy to misunderstand—and mismanage.
Managers who don’t understand all the moving parts or who take a piecemeal approach to managing the liquidity risk in their clients’ portfolios are playing a potentially dangerous game.
So what do we mean about not seeing the big picture? Here are just a few examples.
Focus on Traders, Not Trading
Some asset managers see the decline in bond market liquidity, first and foremost, as a regulatory issue. In other words, they attribute it to new rules that require banks to hold more capital and limit their ability to trade for their own profit.
No doubt, these changes have reduced market liquidity, though they’re not the only force at work. Even so, many asset managers say they can cope by deepening their pool of potential trading partners. This means using smaller brokers to complement the stable of more traditional liquidity providers, such as banks and primary dealers.
There’s nothing wrong with that approach—but it doesn’t go far enough. In our view, the best thing firms can do when it comes to sourcing liquidity is bolster their own trading ranks.
With banks playing a smaller role in the bond-trading business, it’s more important than ever to have skilled traders with the expertise to find liquidity when it’s scarce and take advantage of the opportunities it can offer. In the past, traders at buy-side firms tended to simply execute orders. That approach won’t work anymore.
Over time, more electronic, “all-to-all” trading platforms that can match large orders among a bigger pool of buyers and sellers may help address these issues. But in-house trading expertise is critical.
Cash: Opportunity Cost or Opportunity?
Asset managers recognize the wisdom of keeping cash on hand in a low-liquidity environment. But too many view it simply as a way to meet redemptions should large numbers of investors suddenly want their money back.
Being able to meet redemption is important, of course. But focusing only on this overlooks another benefit that cash confers: the ability to act quickly to take advantage of liquidity-driven dislocations. When liquidity dried up during the “taper tantrum” in 2013, investors who avoided crowded trades and kept some cash on hand were able to swoop in and buy assets at attractive prices. Think of it as compensation for providing liquidity when so many others needed it.
Of course, with interest rates as low as they are, there’s an opportunity cost associated with cash. But there’s a way to partly offset that performance drag: use relatively more liquid derivatives to get exposure to “synthetic” securities.
We can see why this approach may seem attractive at first blush. But the number of investors using these strategies has exploded in recent years. That means a lot of people are doing the same thing at the same time. Asset managers who see these strategies as a panacea may not realize that they can make a liquidity crunch worse.
Why? Because when volatility rises, managers who use VaR-based strategies generally have to sell assets to bring their portfolios’ risk back in line. That can be bad for individual returns (you’re selling when prices are falling) and for broader market liquidity (you’re selling when everyone else is, too).
It’s always useful to keep an eye on volatility when managing risk. But a better approach, in our view, is one that allows investors to buy assets when they cheapen and sell them when they get expensive. This can only be done by lengthening one’s investment time horizon.
During times of high volatility and low liquidity, this may mean sitting tight, turning a blind eye to price declines and waiting for the storm to end. But in the long run, we think this approach is more likely to lead to better investment returns.
Seeing the Big Picture
Navigating today’s bond market requires a thorough understanding of liquidity dynamics—both the risks and the potential opportunities. We think managers who are just feeling around in the dark—like one of the proverbial blind men examining the elephant—may struggle to keep their clients’ portfolios afloat.
The views expressed herein do not constitute research, investment advice or trade recommendations and do not necessarily represent the views of all AB portfolio-management teams.
Opinion column by Douglas J. Peebles, Chief Investment Officer and Head—AllianceBernstein Fixed Income, and Ashish Shah, Head – Global Credit.
Foto por A Guy Taking Pictures
. Mantenerse invertido en un mercado volátil requiere tener la cabeza firme y una estrategia clara
In a global environment of financial and geopolitical crises, divergent economic growth and a dichotomy of monetary policies among developed markets, volatility has dominated the investment dialogue and many professionals agree that it is here to stay.
In your search for positive returns you should remember to keep a steady head and a clear strategy—including a diversified range of investment opportunities—to help navigate the current market volatility.
Firstly, do not let fear and emotions decide your investment strategy. Unfortunately, after many years of low volatility, making sense of the current environment without giving free range to your emotions can prove challenging. Above all, you need to always remember that you are invested for the long run. You should maintain this long-term perspective, and avoid turning over your positions too often with the market’s ups and downs. “Timing the market” and trying to sell stocks when you think the market is about to decline, and buy when you think it is about to rise, is difficult to do successfully with consistency and can be quite risky for your portfolio. For example, if you had invested $100,000 in the S&P 500 Index between January 1st, 1995, and December 31st, 2014 your initial investment would have grown to $654,055. However, missing just the FIVE best days would have cost you over $200,000,
Also important to note is that diversification has changed. Having a bond and stock portfolio is no longer sufficient to ensure effective diversification and consistent returns. Given current market conditions, if you want to protect your investments and/or take advantage of all the potential opportunities in the market, you need to cast a wider net across variety of assets, including active, index and multi-asset strategies as well as nontraditional investments. While nothing can guarantee consistent outperformance, enhanced diversification does expand your sources of risk and return.
To increase your portfolio’s chances of success, considering the following actions:
Build a better bond portfolio – Analyze why it is you want exposure to bonds, and look for the best fixed-income tools for your particular case. For example, an unconstrained bond strategy and the flexibility it gives you, might be useful in navigating interest rate risks.
Increase global exposure – The same techniques for diversifying via sector and asset classes, can be applied to geography. International exposure, to the right markets, can offer better returns than just investing in your domestic market.
Look for dividend paying stocks – This strategy can help provide much-needed downside protection in difficult environments while participating in up markets. Although there is no guarantee that companies will continue to pay dividends, this income can help smooth volatility in unpredictable markets.
Expand to other asset classes– By creating a more diverse and flexible portfolio you start to take advantage of all the financial markets have to offer. This may require seeking opportunity in places you have never looked before such as Real Estate or Long-short funds. It also warrants the use of a wider variety of active, index and multi-asset strategies.
In today’s environment of low growth it is important to use all tools, from the precision exposures allowed by exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to the unbridled reach and flexibility afforded by unconstrained active strategies, to achieve your investment goals.
This material is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice nor an offer or solicitation to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any shares of any Fund (nor shall any such shares be offered or sold to any person) in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities law of that jurisdiction. If any funds are mentioned or inferred to in this material, it is possible that some or all of the funds have not been registered with the securities regulator in any Latin American and Iberian country and thus might not be publicly offered within any such country. The securities regulators of such countries have not confirmed the accuracy of any information contained herein.
WE Family Offices, "Mejor firma de Wealth Management" de Florida y de Nueva York- Foto cedida. Doble galardón para WE Family Offices: "Mejor firma de Wealth Management" de Florida y de Nueva York
WE Family Offices has been awarded with the “Best Family Wealth Management Firm” awards both in Floridaand in New York by the Wealth & Finance International 2015 Finance Awards.
After months of voting, research and hard choices, the publication has finally decided on the worthy winners of this year’s awards, celebrating the service, skill and dedication of individuals and firms across a multitude of financial disciplines and sizes; from local to national players, from single-office firms to international juggernauts, the firm celebrates them all.
The 2015 Finance Awards were developed to recognise and reward excellence, best practice and innovation in finance, and were open to individuals and firms operating and working in a wide range of industries, including personal finance, corporate finance, accountancy and financial management, reaching out to thefour corners of the globe.
“To be named a Finance Award winner is no mean feat: it is not only a “stamp” of professional excellence, it is also a badge of merit, integrity and leadership”, Wealth & Finance International said in its announcement.
