According to Juan Nevado, Fund Manager at M&G, over the past weeks, negative sentiment triggered by China’s economic slowdown and continued declines in the oil price have driven a bear market across ‘risk’ assets such as equities and credit. “Investor pessimism has reached levels where some have begun to ask whether we are about to enter the next global recession. The M&G Multi Asset team’s base case at present is that, while there are very real risks in parts of emerging markets, this is unlikely to trigger a global recession. As such, we view markets movements in some areas at least as somewhat ‘episodic’ and are therefore watching carefully for potential opportunities to exploit,” Nevado says.
In summary, the team’s view is that:
Weighing the magnitude of the sell-off against the fundamental backdrop suggests to us that we are in an ‘episode’ in which market movements are being driven by fear, not facts. With valuations in some areas having been behaviourally driven to attractive levels, we believe this could present a chance to exploit compelling opportunities across selected risk assets. When it feels most uncomfortable to be buying assets is exactly the point at which we should be, one of the strongest indicators to us that we are in an Episode is that is feels so emotionally challenging to take it on.
Fundamentals in developed economies are strong enough that we have conviction that the West is not entering recession.
Areas such as Europe and Japan have been growing, but slowing a little and missing inflation targets. Therefore, we think policymakers in these areas are likely to be inclined towards further easing. We also think it’s plausible that the Federal Reserve will not seek to continue raising US interest rates in this environment, echoing the Bank of England’s statement this week that it will not raise rates for now. So central bankers are likely to remain in supportive stance.
There are genuine risks in China and other Asian/emerging markets to worry about.
However, even if Asia continues to weaken, we are unlikely to see a contagion effect developing into a global recession. A slowdown in China will not have the same impact at the aggregate global level as a similar slowdown in a major developed economy would.
The collapse in the oil price is partly fundamentally driven because OPEC are operating at maximum output. We still believe the boost this provides to consumers, businesses and oil-importing countries should be a net positive for the global economy.
Those predicting these two factors (Chinese slowdown and the oil price) will trigger a global recession need to provide better evidence and explanation of how this would happen to persuade us that they are right.
We do not believe there is much evidence for this. It is sentiment, not facts, driving the market sell-off. Investors are overly fearful, partly because the memory of 2008 still lingers, and when investors are in pessimistic mood, they will seek the negatives and ignore the positives in any situation.
In this context, when we see valuations cheapen so significantly in a relatively short period of time (six weeks in this case, perhaps not as clearly ‘episodic’ as August 2015 in terms of the speed, but certainly in terms of the magnitude) we start to look for opportunities to exploit.
With valuation as our guide, we are not forecasting the future, we are simply aiming to put the odds in our favour. The risk premium on growth assets has skyrocketed since November 2015 and this suggests to us potential opportunities on which to position for the most attractive prospective returns.
From February 2016, Robert Senz will be the new Head of the 20-strong cross-border Fixed Income team of Erste Asset Management. He will report directly to Gerold Permoser, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of EAM. The current Head, Alexander Fleischer, will take an educational leave at his own request.
Robert Senz has more than 25 years of experience in the fixed income area as well as a successful professional track record for example as Chief Investment Officer for bonds with Raiffeisen Capital Management. Gerold Permoser said “with Robert Senz we ensure the continuity of our successful active investment approach. Mr Senz has years of experience, he has received numerous awards, and is highly client-oriented. This will help us strengthen and further expand the already high degree of acceptance displayed by our clients and sales partners.”
“I am very much looking forward to this task, and I am convinced that I will continue the successful path together with the team of Erste Asset Management,” Rober Senz, concluded.
Foto: Giordano Lombardo, CEO and Group CIO of Pioneer Investments. Pioneer Investments alcanza un récord de más de 15.000 millones de euros en ventas netas en 2015
Global asset manager Pioneer Investments continued to deliver strong results posting record inflows of €15.2 billion globally in 2015. Year-on-year net sales were up 15% and assets under management were €224 billion at the end of December 2015, up 11% from December 2014. Reflecting asset growth across all business units, Pioneer Investments saw notably robust flows from Italy and Germany, as well as positive momentum in Asia and Latin America.
According to Morningstar mutual fund flows data, the firm ranked 4th worldwide in the multi-asset space and 9th in the alternative fund segment, thanks to the strong flows into Pioneer Investments’ multi-asset and liquid alternative strategies. These growing asset classes complemented Pioneer Investments’ longstanding fixed income and equity franchises, which continued to contribute to the firm’s results in 2015.
Giordano Lombardo, CEO and Group CIO of Pioneer Investments, commented, “It’s gratifying to see the continued trust our clients have shown in us. We are singularly focused on this responsibility, particularly given the current market volatility and liquidity conditions, as well as macro concerns such as the effectiveness of monetary policies at this stage, the outlook for China, and the trajectory of emerging market economies.
“We are committed to preserving our clients’ capital by continuing to adhere to our time-tested investment approach including remaining focused on risk-management, seeking opportunities for our clients during periods of market weakness, investing with a long-term view for our clients,” he added.
Against a backdrop of record low yields and diminishing returns from traditional asset classes, Pioneer Investments has continued to evolve its product offering, providing innovative investment solutions to its clients. For example, Pioneer Investments’ target income range, designed to provide investors with an enhanced income stream garnered over €10 billion in assets in less than four years since launch. Pioneer Investments’ high-conviction equity offerings such as the US Fundamental Growth, and European Potential strategies were also amongst the top asset gatherers. On the fixed income side, Pioneer Investments expanded its offering in 2015 with the launch of an innovative global GDP-weighted bond strategy and an Emerging Markets Bond short-term strategy.
Foto: B Rosen
. La desaceleración de los EM y los resultados corporativos encabezan la lista de preocupaciones de los advisors
A slowdown in emerging markets, U.S. corporate earnings and U.S. economic slowing ranked as the top three concerns among investment managers polled in Northern Trust´s fourth-quarter 2015 survey. Fewer managers than in the past expect U.S. economic activity and corporate earnings to accelerate, a developing trend Christopher Vella, CIO, and Mark Meisel, SVP, Northern Trust Multi-Manager Investments, noted last quarter that continued this quarter. A large percentage of managers expect U.S. economic activity to remain stable, yet a small but increasing segment of managers expect a period of deceleration.
The study shows that only 21% of managers view U.S. equities as undervalued, down from 34% last quarter and the lowest percentage since the survey began in the third quarter 2008. Investment managers view the valuation of European equities in the best light, with approximately 85% rating them as either undervalued (54%) or appropriately valued (32%). Investment managers are most bullish on non-U.S. developed equities. Emerging market equities ranked second. Within economic sectors, information technology and financials ranked first and second in bullishness.
The results also show that two-thirds of managers expect little to no impact on global equity markets from the Fed’s interest-rate increase; If the price of oil remains low for another year, only 25% of managers believe it will be negative for the U.S equity market; 84% of managers believe the probability of a global recession due to a slowdown in emerging markets is 25% or lower; Only 23% of managers expect corporate earnings to increase, the lowest reading in this survey since the first quarter 2009; A large percentage of managers, 64%, expect U.S. GDP growth to remain the same, but only 23% versus 48% last year expect GDP to accelerate; 41% of investment managers view U.S. equities as overvalued, the largest percentage of managers since the survey began in the third quarter 2008.
Foto: aehdeschaine. Legg Mason sigue creciendo: adquiere Clarion Partners, una minoría en Precidian Investments y combinará Permal con EnTrust Capital
As we published earlier this month, Legg Mason has announced that it has agreed to acquire a majority equity interest in Clarion Partners, a leading diversified real estate investment firm based in New York that manages approximately $40 billion across the real estate risk/return spectrum. Clarion Partners will operate as the primary independent real estate investment affiliate for Legg Mason and Steve Furnary, Chairman and CEO of the firm, will continue in his current role.
Under the terms of the transaction, Legg Mason will acquire an 83% ownership stake in Clarion Partners for $585 million.In addition, Legg Mason will pay for its portion of certain co-investments on a dollar for dollar basis, estimated at $16 million as of December 31, 2015. The management team will retain 17% of the outstanding equity in Clarion Partners. Legg Mason’s ownership percentage and the purchase price may be adjusted lower if the management team elects before the closing to retain more than 17% (not exceeding 20%). The firm’s previous majority partner, Lightyear Capital, will sell its entire ownership stake in the transaction. The deal is expected to close in the second calendar quarter of 2016.
The company also announced it has entered into a definitive agreement to combinePermal, Legg Mason’s existing hedge fund platform, with EnTrust Capital. EnTrust is an independent hedge fund investor and alternative asset manager headquartered in New York with approximately $12 billion in total assets and complementary investment strategies, investor base and business mix to Permal. The business combination will create a global alternatives firm with over $26 billion in pro-forma AUM and total assets of $29 billion. As a result of the combination, Legg Mason will own 65% of the new entity, branded EnTrustPermal, with 35% being owned by Gregg S. Hymowitz, EnTrust’s Co-founder and Managing Partner. The new company will be led by Mr. Hymowitz, who will become its Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Key investment and business professionals from both firms will continue to serve the investors of the new organization.
And, last, the same day Legg Mason also announced that it has acquired a minority equity position in Precidian Investments, a firm specializing in creating products and solutions related to market structure issues, particularly with regard to the ETF marketplace. Precidian powers its own ETF products subadvised by unaffiliated managers and works with financial services firms to jointly develop solutions, structures and products to meet investor needs. Under the terms of the transaction, Legg Mason purchased a new class of preferred equity, entitling it to the rights of a holder of 19.9% of common equity, with the option to acquire a majority interest in the common equity. Other terms of the transactions were not disclosed.
Barings Investments, a firm specialized in providing financial services for agribusiness, M&A and Wealth Management in Latin America, has just launched its new office in Asuncion, due to the high demand which exists in Paraguay for specialized financial services.
Emerson Pieri, head of Latin America for Barings Investments, hired Carlos Avila, who will be heading the new office and developing the business in Paraguay. Carlos Avila previously worked for Credit Andorra Group’s Valores Casa de Bolsa, as private banking financial advisor dedicated to buying and selling stocks and bonds on Paraguay’s stock exchange.
Barings Investments is diversifying participation in various business areas, looking for new opportunities outside the agribusiness and WM sectors. The company’s first venture is to try to attract a group of financial institutions to Paraguay to invest in the infra-structure sector. The first meetings, which aim to capture about half a billion dollars to build toll roads and airports with public and private funding, took place during the second week of January. For the first time, local companies like BYB Construcciones, Ferrere Abogados and private investors will have the support of an international firm such as Barings Investments to bid for a PPP project.
Paraguay, with a population of 7 million people, is a country with a vast wealth of natural resources. The country is crossed by several rivers which make up the Rio de la Plata Basin, which provides hydroelectric power to the Itaipu and Yacyreta power plants which are shared with Brazil. Other key activities in the country include highly automated agriculture and livestock production.
The latest data published on activity in Paraguay could not be more favorable for promoting investment and business in the country. According to the World Bank, Paraguay rates higher than Brazil on the scale of ease of doing business. According to a study by Brazil’s National Confederation of Industry, labor is 21% cheaper in Paraguay than in Brazil and electricity is 64% cheaper. Foreign direct investment to Paraguay grew by 230% between 2013 and 2014, compared with a 2% drop in Brazil. Indeed, Paraguay stands out in a region where overall FDI fell 16% in 2014 and which is expected to fall by as much as 10% this year. The International Monetary Fund expects Paraguay to expand by 3.8% next year, while a growth of only 0.8% is expected in the rest of the region.
In 1997, Paraguay reviewed their industry views by offering incentives to foreign companies willing to assemble low-end factory goods for the world market. Given the country’s inclination to political turmoil, (the overthrow in 2012 of President Fernando Lugo didn’t help) investors were opposed at first, but the situation has changed with the recent political changes.
Since Horacio Cartes, a tobacco magnate, was elected president in 2013, promising to turn Paraguay into a stable democracy with an improved economy, the government’s fiscal responsibility is improving and the country’s debt remains stable. Prior to his election as president, Horacio Cartes endorsed a bill passing an income tax (until then Paraguay lacked this type of revenue collection) to pay for public services and control the underground economy.
The Fourth Industrial Revolution, which includes developments in previously disjointed fields such as artificial intelligence and machine-learning, robotics, nanotechnology, 3-D printing, and genetics and biotechnology, will cause widespread disruptionnot only to business models but also to labour markets over the next five years, with enormous change predicted in the skill sets needed to thrive in the new landscape. This is the finding of a new report, The Future of Jobs, published last Moday by the World Economic Forum.
The report is based on a survey of chief human resources officers and top strategy executives from companies across nine broad industry categories and covering 15 of the world’s largest economies. These are; Australia, Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, South Africa, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States, plus the ASEAN and GCC groups. Together, these economies account for 65% of the global workforce.
In terms of overall impact, the report indicates that the nature of change over the next five years is such that as many as 7.1 million jobs could be lost through redundancy, automation or disintermediation, with the greatest losses in white-collar office and administrative roles. This loss is predicted to be partially offset by the creation of 2.1 million new jobs, mainly in more specialized “job families”, such as Computer and Mathematical or Architecture and Engineering.
These predictions are likely to be relatively conservative and leave no room for complacency. Yet the impact of disruption will vary considerably across industry and gender as well as job type. For example, Healthcare is expected to experience the greatest negative impact in terms of jobs in the next five years, followed jointly by Energy and Financial Services and Investors. The industry that stands to create the most jobs, perhaps less surprisingly, is Information and Communication Technology, followed by Professional Services and Media, Entertainment and Information professionals.
When it comes to respondents’ outlook on how best to deal with these sweeping changes, the news is more encouraging. The most popular workforce strategy across every industry is investing in reskilling current employees. Other practices, such as supporting mobility and job rotation, attracting female and foreign talent and offering apprenticeships, also scored high.
Drivers of change
Drivers of change will also have a very disparate impact within specific industries. For example, processing power and big data will have an especially strong impact on Information and Communication Technology, Financial Services and Professional Services. The rising middle class in emerging markets will have the largest effect on Consumer, Financial Services and Mobility. Consumer ethics and privacy issues will have a significant impact on the Consumer, Financial Services and Information and Communication Technology sectors.
The business model changes created by these drivers will, in turn, have specific and different consequences for employment and skills needs in each industry. While there is a modestly positive outlook for employment across most sectors over the 2015-2020 period, underneath this aggregate outlook there is significant relative growth in some job families and significant relative decline in others. Skills instability is expected to impact all industries but is particularly pronounced in Financial Services where 43% of the top skills needed in all job families across the industry are expected to change by 2020.
You may find the complete report following this link.
Standard Life Investments, a global investment manager, suggests that structural reforms in China will play an important role in determining the trends of global financial markets in 2016. In the January edition of Global Outlook, the manager also shines a spotlight on emerging markets, examines the global economy into 2016, the outlook for US bond markets and sterling, and drivers of global equities.
Alex Wolf, Emerging Markets Economist, Standard Life Investments said: “In China, we expect policymakers to continue walking a tightrope – balancing enough fiscal and monetary stimulus to prevent a sharper growth collapse, while slowly proceeding with supply side reforms to remove excess capacity. Slowing Chinese demand, which we believe was worse than official data reflected, was one of the largest causes of the emerging market trade and output contraction experienced last year. As such we see some room for cyclical upside, as policy measures take effect.
However, our longer-term outlook on China has become increasingly negative. Our own view is that GDP growth is closer to 5% than the 6.9% reported by the Chinese authorities. Although we believe policy makers will avoid a hard landing, it is becoming more likely that Chinese leaders will not enact necessary reforms quickly, especially of state owned enterprises (SOE). SOEs are at the heart of China’s problems, and reforms here would deliver the biggest dividends from a growth and rebalancing perspective, but Beijing has been dragging its feet.”
According to Standard Life Investment, SOE reform plans delivered over recent months were received with optimism, but they believe they failed to address corporate governance issues or the reduction of excess capacity through corporate restructuring and closures.
“Consolidation has been the preferred path, and the government seemed unwilling to sell or reduce state assets in a meaningful way. The plan will lack effectiveness if the focus on addressing loss-making companies and overcapacity is limited to a small number of centrally-owned SOEs, and not the mass of locally-owned SOEs, where most of the overcapacity and inefficiencies lie.
If China growth does disappoint this could drive continued volatility in global markets. Sluggish growth is priced into markets but a hard landing which impacts on currency, capital flows, commodities and social stability is not. This could result in more aggressive domestic monetary easing, forcing the renminbi lower against the dollar, with adverse implications for global inflation and a blow to emerging markets dependent on robust Chinese demand for manufactured goods and commodities.”
Foto: Dani Vázquez
. Hermes IM nombra presidente a David Stewart
Hermes Investment Management has announced the appointment of David Stewart as the new Chairman of the Board effective 1 April 2016. He assumes the position from Paul Spencer, CBE, who has been Chairman since 2011.
David Stewart is currently a Non-Executive Director of Hermes Investment Management since joining the Board in April 2015. He previously spent nine years at Odey Asset Management, initially as Chief Executive and latterly as a Non-Executive Director. He is Chairman of IMM Associates, a Non-Executive Director of the Caledonia Investment Trust, and sits on the Investment Committee of MacMillan Cancer Care.
Saker Nusseibeh, Chief Executive, Hermes Investment Management, says:“Since joining the Board as Chair of the Risk and Compliance Committee, David has quickly established himself as an insightful and trusted advisor. His advice and counsel will be greatly beneficial as we take Hermes through the next stage of its growth.”
David Stewart, Chairman elect,Hermes Investment Management, says:“I look forward to taking up my new role, and working with Saker, the leadership team at Hermes and my fellow Board members to build on the successes Hermes has already achieved. I see Hermes as an asset manager which is fully embedding responsible capitalism at the very heart of its business. This gives the firm a unique advantage, for which it is increasingly being recognized. ”
BBVA Compass and FutureAdvisor are forging an alliance to bring investment management services to a greater slice of the bank’s clients through digital means, making the Sunbelt-based financial institution the first major bank to sign on with FutureAdvisor after the San Francisco firm’s milestone year in which it combined forces with leading asset-management firm BlackRock.
BBVA Compass clients will be able to use the award-winning firm’s automated investment services later in 2016. The bank sees the alliance as a way to make sophisticated tools and guidance available to its digital-savvy clients who aren’t currently taking advantage of its investment services. The alliance demonstrates BBVA Compass’ willingness to align with innovators regarded by some as industry disruptors.
“FutureAdvisor gives us a way to connect more of our clients with convenient, affordable and trusted advice,” said BBVA Compass Chairman and CEO Manolo Sánchez. “The ultimate goal here is to help our clients take greater control of their finances so they can build bright futures.”
The alliance follows a headline-generating year for FutureAdvisor, which was acquired in September by BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager. FutureAdvisor has managed more than US$ 700 million in client investments since it launched its managed service in 2013.
Its innovative, always-on technology is guided by a proprietary algorithm, and its investment decisions are backed by theory developed by Nobel Prize-winning economists and continuously refined by a council of notable scholars and finance experts.
“We are very pleased to be deepening BlackRock’s longstanding relationship with BBVA through FutureAdvisor’s partnership with BBVA Compass,” said Laurence D. Fink, Chairman and CEO of BlackRock, whose firm has long helped BBVA serve clients in the U.S., Latin America, Spain and Portugal. “The role of technology in our industry continues to evolve as consumers increasingly look to engage with digital-advice platforms. FutureAdvisor powers an entirely new digital client experience for investors, which includes a diverse set of investment products, proprietary retirement technologies and risk analytics.”
BBVA Compass clients will be able to link external investment accounts with FutureAdvisor and receive a customized plan for their portfolios. FutureAdvisor’s investment management service will also be available for clients who want direct management of a portfolio, with the assets being held through the bank’s broker-dealer affiliate BBVA Compass Investment Solutions, a division of BBVA Securities Inc., member FINRA and SIPC. The service will include auto-rebalancing based on market movement and tax loss harvesting to help improve after-tax, risk-adjusted rates of returns.
FutureAdvisor is the latest innovator to join forces with BBVA Compass in the bank’s pursuit to lead the technology-driven transformation of the financial services industry. In 2014, its parent company, BBVA, acquired Simple, a Portland, Oregon-based company that has created a new standard in digital banking, through BBVA Compass. And through its alliance with the all-digital payments network Dwolla, the bank is helping account holders bypass conventional networks to send and receive funds instantly. It also is the latest in a series of BBVA Compass offerings designed to give clients greater control of their finances. In November, via the second release of BBVA Wallet, BBVA Compass became the first major U.S. bank to offer its credit card clients real-time redemption of rewards earned on qualified purchases made at any retailer. And in September, the bank introduced its ClearSpend prepaid card with a mobile budgeting app, a nod to the increasing use of prepaid debit cards across all ages and income levels.
FutureAdvisor was awarded the World Economic Forum’s Technology Pioneer award in 2015, and American Wealth Management Innovator award in 2014.
