LinkedIn / Samantha Muratori (AQR Capital Management).
Samantha Muratori joins the AQR Capital Management team. Following her time at Voya IM, where she held the position of Vice President, Senior Regional Director – US Offshore since 2023, Muratori joins AQR to lead the US offshore market. She will be based in New York and will report to Jorge Fernández-Cuervo, Executive Director of AQR Capital Management.
Muratori has extensive experience in the US offshore market. In addition to Voya IM, she has developed her professional career at firms such as AllianzGI, where she held the position of Vice President, Business Developer, NRB, and AXA IM, as a US Offshore Sales Associate. In terms of her academic background, she holds a B.A. in Political Science and Anthropology from Union College.
LinkedIn / Alberto Fuentes, New Head of Private Markets Business Development Team at BlackRock for LatAm
Changes in BlackRock’s private markets area in LatAm. The firm has promoted Alberto Fuentes as the new Head of Private Markets Business Development Team. Until now, Fuentes held the position of Director of Alternatives for LatAm, thus assuming new responsibilities focused on developing the firm’s business in this region.
“I am pleased to share that I have taken on a new role at BlackRock as Head of Private Markets Business Development for LatAm. After leading capital raising campaigns for BlackRock in Mexico for 8 years, and more recently supporting Chile in collaboration with our sales teams, I have expanded my responsibilities to support the region as a whole. It will be an honor to continue collaborating with our GIP and HPS teams, supporting their capital raising priorities across the region,” Fuentes stated on his LinkedIn profile.
Fuentes joined BlackRock in 2018 as Associate Institutional Sales in Mexico. Since then, he has developed his professional career at the firm, holding different positions of responsibility, including Vice President – Alternative Specialists and, more recently, Director of Alternatives for LatAm. Before joining BlackRock, he began his career at the firm Pensionissste, where he was a member of the Asset Allocation team. Fuentes holds a degree in Finance from Montana State University-Bozeman and a master’s degree in Banking and Finance from Stockholm University.
Photo courtesyRay Jian, Director of Emerging Market Fixed Income at Amundi
Fifty years ago, Latin American currencies fell into a spiral of collapses that led them to experience the darkest period in their modern history; today, the outlook is different, as the region is perhaps experiencing a standout moment in terms of stability: the “currency pax.” However, storm clouds on the horizon have unsettled their performance amid the global context.
So far in the 21st century, Latin American currencies have followed a clear path: structural depreciation against the dollar, but with very different degrees of stability. Mexico and Chile have managed to preserve relative value over time, Brazil has alternated between cycles of strength and weakness, while Argentina represents an extreme case of monetary destruction. But overall, nothing comparable to the abrupt, widespread devaluations of the last quarter of the 20th century, nor to the experiments with various exchange rate regimes.
According to Deutsche Bank’s currency strategy, the performance of the region’s most important currencies so far this century is as follows: the Mexican peso maintains moderate structural depreciation of between 70% and 90%, nothing comparable to the more than 1,000% seen in the last quarter of the previous century. It has gone through periods of high volatility this century, but without collapse; in fact, it is one of the most stable currencies in emerging markets.
The Brazilian real, meanwhile, has accumulated depreciation of between 170% and 220% this century, also with strong periods of volatility, but still remains attractive due to high interest rates (carry trade). The Chilean peso has depreciated between 60% and 80% during the century, but is also one of the most stable currencies in the region. The Argentine peso is another story, with multiple currency changes and controls; it is an extreme case of chronic inflation, successive devaluations, and total loss of real value. It is one of the worst-performing currencies globally this century.
Given the current global turbulence, will Latin America be able to maintain this stability, or is there a risk of a new period of extreme volatility and pressure on the region’s exchange rates?
Funds Society spoke with Pedro Quintanilla-Dieck, Senior Emerging Markets Strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management (GWM), one of the Swiss bank’s main divisions, about his outlook for the near future regarding the region’s most representative currencies.
Short-Term Weakness, the Hallmark for Latin American Currencies
In general, current analyses point to greater weakness in the region’s most representative currencies given the global context, but so far there are no signs of the kind of exchange rate collapses seen in the last quarter of the previous century.
UBS GWM shares this view: “In our opinion, Latin American currencies have greater protection against global volatility thanks to structural fundamentals. The region stands out for stronger macroeconomic and fiscal frameworks and is relatively insulated from geopolitically conflictive areas. In addition, Latin America produces commodities that are increasingly in demand, such as copper in the energy transition and agricultural products in a context of vulnerable supply chains. In this environment, the Brazilian real stands out for its resilience, supported by high interest rates and strong external accounts thanks to agricultural and energy production,” notes Pedro Quintanilla.
According to the expert, this strength is the result of decades of fiscal discipline in many countries in the region, as well as control of factors such as inflation, and more broadly, structural adjustments that contributed to the exchange rate stability the region is experiencing today.
Below is the analysis provided by the UBS GWM expert on the region’s main currencies and, above all, the institution’s medium-term expectations for each of them.
Chilean Peso: Impacted by the War, but Resilient in the Medium Term
In net terms, the Chilean peso has depreciated slightly against the dollar. Until the end of February, factors such as attractive valuations, high copper prices, and a generally weak dollar supported the Chilean peso. However, since the start of the conflict with Iran at the end of February, the peso has become one of the most depreciated emerging market currencies, due to the sharp increase in oil prices, which negatively affects the country’s terms of trade, given that Chile imports 100% of the oil it consumes.
As the conflict eases and oil prices normalize, the Chilean peso is likely to resume its appreciation trend. In addition, there are idiosyncratic factors that could support the currency, such as accelerated growth driven by the pro-business agenda of Kast’s new government, which includes tax cuts and deregulation. The Chilean peso is currently trading at 915 per dollar, but in this context we expect it could close the year around 870 per dollar, approaching levels seen before the conflict.
Argentine Peso: Structural Reforms Will Continue to Support It
In our view, the accumulation of international reserves and progress in structural reforms continue to reduce country risk and support the transition toward a more flexible exchange rate regime. The central bank has purchased nearly $4 billion so far this year and is expected to exceed $10 billion in 2026. In addition, rising oil prices benefit the peso, as Argentina is a net exporter. We expect the exchange rate to close the year at 1,700 pesos per dollar.
Brazilian Real: The Strongest Currency in the Region
The Brazilian real is the emerging market currency with the greatest appreciation so far this year, advancing 6% against the dollar. This performance has been driven by high commodity prices, historically high interest rates, and a gradual rate-cutting policy. In addition, as a net oil exporter, Brazil has been shielded from depreciation pressures during the Middle East conflict, benefiting from stronger terms of trade and higher fiscal revenues.
We believe these factors will continue to support the real in the short term. As the conflict subsides, Brazil will lose the additional boost from oil but could benefit from a better global environment and a generalized weakening of the dollar. Ahead of the October elections, the real could face slight depreciation. It is currently trading at 5.1 per dollar; we estimate it could approach 5 in the coming months, although it will likely close the year around 5.5 per dollar.
Mexican Peso: USMCA Developments Will Bring Volatility
Our projections point to a gradual appreciation of the peso going forward, with levels of 17.7 by the end of the second quarter of 2026, 17.5 in the third quarter, and 17.2 by year-end and in the first quarter of 2027.
This scenario assumes a moderation of global tensions and greater stability in financial markets. However, we anticipate a non-linear path, with episodes of volatility linked to both external and domestic factors, particularly around the USMCA and monetary policy decisions in Mexico and the United States.
Thus, while most analyses point to weakness in regional currencies in the coming months due to various geopolitical and internal factors—or a combination of both—there currently appears to be no risk of a collapse of the “currency pax” that has characterized this part of the world so far this century, unlike what occurred in the final three decades of the 20th century.
Photo courtesySophie del Campo, Head of Distribution for Southern Europe, Latin America, and US Offshore at Natixis IM
Natixis Investment Managers Landed in Spain 15 Years Ago. The timing could not have been more challenging, with the eurozone immersed in a severe sovereign debt crisis, but in the long run the strategy has paid off. Sophie del Campo, Head of Distribution for Southern Europe, Latin America, and US Offshore, has been part of the project from day one and describes herself as “super proud,” particularly because the office closed 2025 with record assets.
During an interview conducted at the Natixis Investment Managers Thought Leadership Summit 2026, recently held in Paris, Del Campo highlights the spectacular growth of Natixis IM in the Iberia region during this time, which she attributes “to the quality of the products we offer and the diversification they provide.” Last year, she also celebrated ten years since the opening of the first of the group’s three offices in the Americas: Mexico, Colombia (from where Peru is also covered), and Uruguay (which also supports Chile).
Today, the company maintains its strong commitment to active management and is doubling down on its multiboutique model, which Del Campo describes as “a spectacular differentiating factor,” and is fully engaged in its strategic plan for the coming years, which includes boosting its private markets business with the launch of new products soon. “We are in a quite sweet phase of exponential growth,” the expert summarizes.
What is your assessment of these 15 years?
The timing has been spectacular because it is true that when you open an office, from the moment people get to know you until you establish yourself, it takes time. And the time we needed to develop the business coincided with a somewhat more challenging market environment, but our strategy has been the same one we follow in all markets: a multi-manager, capabilities-based model, starting with a few ideas and a limited number of products. Today, we distribute in Spain products from 13 of our 16 asset managers; the three we do not distribute are purely American managers whose funds do not have a UCITS version.
Our strategy is super clear: we do not run product campaigns; we work with each client to identify what is simplest for their portfolios. This allows us to achieve diversification alongside the product offering. We think long term, about how to combine our active management with more basic strategies using high-quality, value-added products.
In addition to the product itself, we consider the service we provide alongside it to be even more important, particularly portfolio construction through our Natixis Investment Manager Solutions team and our Durable Portfolio Construction service, through which we have analyzed more than 2,000 client portfolios. This has allowed us to show clients how they could build portfolios that include competitors’ products while adding our own, helping us demonstrate to private bankers and fund-of-funds managers the value of incorporating new ideas.
How has product demand changed over these 15 years?
In recent years—and not only in Spain—we have observed strong demand for alternatives to purely passive exposure. This has allowed us to offer products from managers within our affiliated model such as DNCA or Harris Associates, which build portfolios in a very different way from passive managers.
Why do you strongly support active management?
We have always said that passive management is important, but active management is extremely important for diversification. Active management is also active risk management. And this is precisely what has driven our exponential growth in both equities and fixed income: after what happened in 2022, when there was high correlation between equities and fixed income, many clients asked us for fixed income positioning that goes beyond plain-vanilla indexed funds. We are fortunate to have an انتہائی diversified product range, solid in terms of return and risk, with products such as DNCA Alpha Bonds, a flexible fixed income strategy that provides significant diversification in portfolios.
Will you promote funds that offer access to private assets this year?
Our focus on private assets positions us as a highly relevant partner for institutions looking to begin distributing private asset products within their networks, because we have experience through our own network in France and are willing to share it with our clients. In addition, our group also provides seeding to ensure a significant asset base. We are an extremely conservative firm in this regard; we understand that this is a much more sophisticated and complex asset to sell, and that we must support our clients throughout this journey.
You are also responsible for the business in LatAm and US Offshore. How has it evolved?
We are quite proud of the development we are achieving in LatAm and Offshore. We have been the same team for ten years; we have built this together and achieved extremely interesting things in the region. For example, in Mexico we launched, together with Santander, a US equities product that is now the largest domestic fund in its category in Mexico, with more than $450 million.
What interests me about the Latin American market is that each country has a different framework in terms of regulation and product distribution. What we have done is determine, in each country, the strategy we wanted to follow, taking into account the market context to decide whether to focus on institutional clients or distribution clients. In Mexico, for example, we initially focused purely on institutional clients. But we realized, by speaking with our clients, that there was demand for higher-quality local products. That is why we decided to develop, together with Santander, a high-quality US equity product for its private banking arm, which is a very important component of private banking portfolios in Latin America.
In Colombia, our target is more evenly split among institutional clients, pension funds, private banking clients, and local asset managers. In Peru, we divide our focus between purely institutional clients and more market-oriented clients, including local institutions and family offices. In both markets, we see strong interest in diversifying with international assets.
Uruguay remains a hub for offshore private banking in Latin America, alongside the United States—Miami, Houston, etc.—and there are major private banks and key players we work with in both Uruguay and the U.S., and the results have also been very positive.
As a result, we have long been present in all major American private banks. In terms of results, I believe we are in the top two compared to other international asset managers, and in some American firms and distributors we were number one last year.
Where does Natixis IM stand now in the region?
We are currently in a very strong acceleration phase. Natixis IM is a somewhat different player in the region. Although we are a French group, we cannot be placed within the group of European asset managers due to our structure and the fact that 50% of what we manage globally is managed from the U.S. This makes us a very strong partner. As a result, we can bring U.S. expertise by offering products from U.S.-based managers such as Loomis Sayles or Harris Associates, while also providing our European expertise and products that are quite different from what our clients in the region previously had, such as the flexible fixed income fund from DNCA, where we are gaining significant market share.
For us, the Iberia–LatAm connection is just as important as the LatAm–US Offshore connection, because it allows us to achieve a strong alignment of interests with clients. We have an organization very similar to that of large Spanish banks with a presence in Latin America, which enables us to provide local support. We also work with major independent advisors.
In 24 hours, markets have shifted from pricing in a potential “geopolitical black swan” to opening with broad gains—for example, in Europe, Germany’s DAX rose 5% and the UK’s FTSE 100 about 2%—and oil futures falling by approximately 14%, bringing Brent crude back below $100 per barrel (around $94). In addition, the US dollar index has dropped by around 1%, with the euro/dollar exchange rate returning above the 1.17 level for the first time since the start of the war. The reason is clear: there is a sense of relief following the announcement of a temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, as energy risk has decreased.
For markets, the key aspect of this agreement points to a “full, immediate, and secure reopening of the Strait of Hormuz,” although it remains to be seen how this will materialize. “Markets do not need absolute certainty to rebound; for markets, a ceasefire significantly reduces the risk of escalation in the short term. That reduction in tail risk is often enough to trigger a rapid repricing, even if long-term uncertainties persist,” says Ray Sharma-Ong, Deputy Global Head of Multi-Asset Custom Solutions at Aberdeen Investments.
For Matthew Ryan, Head of Market Strategy at Ebury, the word that describes markets today is relief. “Attention is now turning to the next critical negotiations between the United States and Iran. The key question will be whether these talks achieve lasting peace or whether Tuesday’s ceasefire has merely postponed the issue,” he states. In his view, market participants will not fully commit to “risk-on” trades, nor will oil futures or the dollar return to pre-war levels until a permanent agreement is reached. “As things stand, this remains only a temporary pause in the war, and despite the ceasefire, the dollar is still trading about 1% higher than before the conflict,” he notes.
Toward a Rebound
For his part, Sharma-Ong argues that today’s market moves have been seen before: “On April 9, 2025, the S&P 500 surged 9.5% in a single session after Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs introduced on April 2, 2025. At that time, as in the current situation, several major uncertainties remained. However, the removal of extreme downside risk was enough to trigger a strong rebound.”
With this in mind, the Aberdeen expert ventures to say that in the following months, “markets surpassed previous highs.” “The relief rally is expected to be stronger in North Asia. Fundamentals will return to center stage, and these—not geopolitics—will lead markets if the geopolitical risk premium fades. In addition, we expect a stronger rebound in markets that were most affected by the oil crisis and the rise in risk aversion. Asian equity markets that are more dependent on oil imports, particularly Korea, Taiwan, and Japan, are likely to recover more quickly. These markets are more exposed to fluctuations in energy prices and global risk sentiment,” adds Sharma-Ong.
From an investor perspective, Michaël Nizard, Head of Multi-Asset and Overlay at Edmond de Rothschild AM, believes the key issue will be assessing macroeconomic impacts, particularly on growth, inflation, and monetary policy dynamics. “Although the risk of recession is not yet imminent, the effects will be clearly in the eurozone. Indeed, this geopolitical shock in the Middle East acts as an energy supply shock, reigniting global inflationary pressures and directly affecting growth. The rise in oil and gas prices is particularly harmful for Europe, whose industry remains dependent on these resources, increasing the risk of a loss of competitiveness,” he states.
However, Nizard considers this context different from that of 2022, when the global economy simultaneously faced a supply shock and excess demand linked to savings accumulated during the pandemic and large government fiscal stimulus: “The labor market is not under the same severe strain as in 2022. For all these reasons, we believe central banks should act cautiously and avoid overreacting to the rise in inflation in the coming months. A lower risk of monetary policy mistakes will also act as a tailwind for risk assets, both in equities and in the corporate debt market.”
The Energy Question
Another clear conclusion following the agreement is that energy markets may have passed the supply shock peak. “In line with our oil analyst’s view, energy markets have likely moved past the peak of the supply shock, as prices had already reached economically damaging levels, which typically trigger de-escalation dynamics,” highlights Christian Gattiker, Head of Research at Julius Baer.
In fact, this ceasefire comes at a time when energy markets were already showing initial signs of stabilization. “Even at the height of tensions, the scenario was never one of a total supply disruption, but rather of a partial and shifting opening. As highlighted in recent days, transport flows through the Strait of Hormuz have continued to increase, supported by Iran-protected routes and greater international involvement. Although still below pre-conflict levels, these flows—along with alternative export channels—have mitigated the supply shock and given energy supply chains room to adjust. This resilience is key,” adds Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research at Julius Baer.
According to Fidelity International, despite the drop in Brent prices on April 8, energy markets are unlikely to quickly return to pre-conflict price levels, as geopolitical premiums are likely to persist. “We assume that Brent will trade around $85 for the rest of the year following any resolution. In addition, risks to supply chains beyond energy markets imply that this shock will not disappear immediately. This impact will be felt most strongly in Asia, due to direct exposure to the Strait, followed by Europe. Despite being relatively insulated from the direct impact of this conflict, the United States will also feel the effects of the global macroeconomic shock and higher global energy prices,” they state in their latest analysis.
What Now
All this market optimism and the views of investment experts come with a warning: risk and volatility have not completely disappeared. “The ceasefire fits well within the established pattern of geopolitical crises, where an intense escalation phase creates the conditions for an eventual exit. This supports our base case of a fast and intense shock, with limited lasting damage to global energy supply. Although geopolitics in the Middle East will remain present, we expect energy markets to gradually decouple from political noise, reducing the risk of a sustained oil-driven macroeconomic shock. However, investors should be cautious in interpreting this as a definitive resolution. The conflict continues to follow a ‘reality show pattern,’ characterized by rapid escalations, tactical pauses, and renewed tensions,” warns Gattiker.
Experts clearly agree that the durability of a ceasefire and any conditional agreement that follows remains uncertain. There is also some skepticism that the United States or Israel will accept the 10-point conditions proposed by Iran, particularly as it seems unlikely that the U.S. would end its military presence in the Gulf.
“If the two-week ceasefire holds and some form of agreement is reached that allows the reopening of the Strait, the global economic impact of this conflict will be manageable. We would view this as a temporary price disruption that may not affect consumers or businesses in some economies. In that case, central banks could broadly resume the path they were on before the conflict. In fact, if commodity prices normalize quickly, attention could shift more toward the impact on growth,” explains Michael Langham, Emerging Markets Economist at Aberdeen Investments.
Fidelity International adds one final reflection: “Our view remains that the most likely outcome is a disorderly resolution, with geopolitical risk premiums likely to persist in the days following the war. Tail risks remain elevated, with an active risk that we could find ourselves in a situation where the parties continue to have incentives to escalate again in order to de-escalate, which entails clear asymmetric risks. Although we are likely closer to the end than the beginning of this conflict, high uncertainty persists. Meanwhile, market stress remains clearly visible in some channels.”
Photo courtesyFranco Cassoni, Associate Director of US Offshore Sales at Janus Henderson Investors
Janus Henderson Investors Strengthens Its US Offshore Client Group Team With a New Addition. As announced by the firm, it has appointed Franco Cassoni as the new Associate Director, US Offshore Sales. Cassoni, who assumed the role on April 6, will be based in Miami and will report to Paul Brito, Executive Director of the Client Group North America Offshore. In this position, he will be responsible for strengthening Janus Henderson’s existing relationships with local and global institutions, as well as developing new partnerships in the US Offshore market.
The firm believes that Cassoni brings valuable experience to the role, as he joins from Citi, where he worked for four years in two different positions; most recently as Assistant Vice President, which allowed him to gain a deep understanding of the US Offshore market. Franco holds a degree in Business Technology, Management and Marketing from the University of Miami. In addition, he is bilingual in English and Spanish.
Following this announcement, Paul Brito, Executive Director of the Client Group North America Offshore at Janus Henderson, commented: “We are delighted to welcome Franco Cassoni to Janus Henderson. His experience in the US Offshore market and his client-focused approach make him a very valuable addition to our team. As we continue investing in the US offshore channel, his focus on developing long-term relationships will support the next phase of our growth in the region and our ability to deliver tailored solutions to investors.”
As global investors have continued pouring capital into the nascent boom in artificial intelligence, concerns about the concentration of the U.S. equity market in the companies leading this trend—the so-called Magnificent Seven—have emerged across various sectors. On the private markets side, the bet on this technology is also prevalent, especially in segments such as venture capital. However, Hamilton Lane’s view is that these asset classes are more diversified than equities.
In the latest edition of its Market Overview, the private markets specialist emphasized that these seven stocks have been driving the performance of public equity portfolios for at least six years. Looking ahead, they expect this to continue for at least another two or three years.
As is often the case with major technological shifts, venture capital has been leading investments. “It is fair to say that the scale of the move into AI has been dramatic. More than 50% of the value of venture deals globally is now directed toward AI-focused businesses,” the report noted.
However, despite the strong allocation, these asset classes do not carry the same level of concentration risk as public markets, according to Hamilton Lane. The issue lies in the innovation that has been driving the AI stock market rally: large language models (LLMs).
AI beyond LLMs
“A significant part of the narrative for public market investors and the U.S. economy is the development of large language models to drive AI growth and adoption,” the firm stated in its report.
In this context, two scenarios are emerging on the horizon. Some market participants are betting on the realization of a new industrial revolution. Others do not see a scalable path for LLMs, with a ceiling on their development. “None of us knows the answer to this, but we all need to understand the questions in order to grasp what might come out of the AI box,” they noted.
This brings a key issue to the table: investing in AI—but how?
Currently, Hamilton Lane emphasized in its report, public markets are heavily anchored in LLMs. By contrast, private markets—including the VC ecosystem—cover a broader range of the AI spectrum and have more limited exposure to the scaling of these models. For example, they do not invest in data centers or the chips that are at the core of this technology.
“The venture world invests in the applications of LLMs. They invest in ‘things’ that make end LLM products work better, integrate better, and become easier to use,” the alternatives specialist noted.
According to the report, regardless of valuation concerns, the private market offers more diversified access to this technology than public markets.
For the firm, there is a 60% probability that we are not in an AI-related financial bubble. This means it is their base case, but the recommendation is clear: portfolios must be prepared for each scenario. This includes considering that public and private assets could behave differently if the promise of large language models does not materialize.
“Would anyone be surprised if, going forward, LLMs stagnate, but the applications using current LLMs thrive? That might not be a good environment for Magnificent Seven stock prices, but a group of venture-backed private companies would soar,” they explained.
A variety of applications
Compared with other tech investment waves, such as SaaS companies and the dot-com era, this AI-driven valuation boom is associated with a more favorable earnings curve for capital. “There is always criticism that much venture investment is based on promises rather than profits. We are not saying the profits are here yet, but the path to real revenues (which eventually leads to earnings) is happening faster than what we have seen in other technology-driven cycles,” they added.
In that vein, Hamilton Lane’s analysis highlights how widespread AI use has become across sectors. Surveying 150 managers across strategies and geographies, they observed an increase in the use of this technology within portfolio companies in the recent past.
In 2024, 44% of surveyed GPs said that between 80% and 100% of their portfolios were actively using AI. The following year, that figure had risen to 61%. Conversely, the percentage of GPs investing in companies with no active use of AI fell from 3% to zero over the same period.
“In one year there has been a significant increase in companies actively using AI. If revenue growth is key for AI to drive expansion, this number is encouraging, although it does not indicate what kind of use is being made of it or at what cost,” the U.S. firm noted in its report.
On the other hand, while they note the share of companies making little use of this technology—3% of GPs reporting that between 0% and 20% of their companies actively use it, and 9% reporting between 20% and 40% usage—this can be explained by the nature of certain sectors.
A plumbing company, for example, will have limited applications for artificial intelligence beyond accounting and logistics. “That lack of direct exposure to AI will be an important consideration for portfolio construction,” Hamilton Lane concluded.
Amid a series of changes in the energy sector and a rising global price environment, estimates suggest that Venezuela could turn up the dial on its oil production. Considering a range of variables, the Institute of International Finance (IIF) estimates three possible scenarios for the future of this industry in the Latin American country, which would result in an increase of between 150,000 and 500,000 barrels per day.
“Recent policy changes and public policies have reset parts of Venezuela’s operating environment,” the institution said in a recent report. “Targeted easing of sanctions, stricter U.S. oversight, and changes in the domestic legal framework have opened the way for a limited recovery, while the scale of the resource base implies that sustained investment could bring significant gains over time,” they added.
Nevertheless, the Institute emphasized that production prospects remain constrained by persistent challenges at the operational, financial, and governance levels. This keeps short-term outlooks at a high level of uncertainty.
Against this backdrop, the IIF calculated how oil production in Venezuela could improve in the future, based on three projected scenarios, taking into account the state of current assets, cost structures, and realistic implementation timelines.
A modest scenario
In a scenario of modest improvements in crude production, the institution foresees a gradual recovery in output from early 2026 levels. This process, they note, would be supported by regained access to markets following some disruptions in exports.
“Short-term gains would be driven by Chevron’s joint venture operations, given PDVSA’s constrained operational capacity, with only limited contributions from other partners such as Repsol,” the IIF said in its report, signed by María Paola Figueroa, Martín Castellano, and Yifei Zhu.
Under this scenario, they estimate that production could rise from the one million barrels per day recorded by the industry last year by around 150,000 barrels per day over the next two years, assuming operational continuity.
“While access to diluents has improved thanks to licensed imports, easing a key constraint, production growth would still be limited by bottlenecks in ports and exports, weak refining capacity, aging infrastructure, depressed drilling after years of underinvestment, and an investment environment that remains uncertain and does not favor broader capital flows,” the IIF noted.
A moderate scenario A more optimistic context is what the Institute currently considers its base case, and this outlook would bring a larger increase in oil production.
“Emerging signs of investor participation point to an improved environment that could lift production by between 300,000 and 350,000 barrels per day over the next two years, bringing it to the range of 1.3 to 1.4 million barrels per day,” they projected.
In this scenario, most of the gains are expected to come from heavy oil assets in the Orinoco Oil Belt, along with a selection of western fields requiring limited rehabilitation.
“The increase in production would be driven by well reactivations, targeted infrastructure repairs, and other short-cycle investments in current operations,” the institution forecast.
In this regard, they state that this case would reflect greater use of existing capacity and improved operating conditions for operators already in place. It would also maintain more modest capital requirements than a full reconstruction of the sector.
An optimistic scenario “A more decisive improvement in policies and the investment environment could support a stronger production response over the next two years,” the IIF stated.
In this scenario, which provides more support for the sector’s recovery than the others, the institution estimates that production would increase by around half a million barrels per day, bringing it to 1.5 million barrels.
The expectation in this context is that gains would extend beyond a short-cycle recovery, and that well reactivations would include greater extraction activity and increased project development across the Orinoco Oil Belt and selected fields.
“Achieving this short-term expansion would require more stable fiscal and contractual terms, progress in resolving legacy debt arrangements, and a more durable framework for licenses and sanctions,” they noted.
In addition, they emphasized in their report that this scenario would also depend on a broader reconstruction of critical infrastructure — including transportation, networks, storage, and export terminals — along with the rehabilitation of the energy sector, given its central role in on-the-ground operations.
Photo courtesyGuy Henriques, president of Capital Group for Europe and Asia.
Capital Group celebrates the second anniversary of the opening of its Miami office, dedicated to U.S. offshore and Latin American clients, led by Mario González, the firm’s director for the Iberian Peninsula, the U.S. offshore segment, and Latin America. During this period, business volume — which includes the offshore segment itself, as well as Latin America, Asia, and the UCITS business for non-resident investors in Europe — has grown significantly. The team has also expanded, strengthening coverage in key U.S. markets such as Texas, California, and New York. “Many of our competitors have either invested in this market or are resorting to different distribution models. What we have done is reinvest in the market, with greater commitments and more resources,” says González.
Now, the next challenge is to expand Capital Group’s sales network across the American continent. Funds Society sat down with González and Guy Henriques, the firm’s president for Europe and Asia, to discuss their plans, within the investment philosophy of a very long-term horizon that the company has demonstrated throughout its more than 90-year history. At this point, Henriques sends a strong message about Capital Group’s intentions: “We have always grown organically. We are a private company and have a very long-term vision of how to build our business.”
After the spectacular growth of the Miami office since its opening in 2024, what are the next steps?
The next phase of growth is in Latin America. We are looking to establish long-term relationships with the right distributors, always with a long-term vision and seeking partners within those markets for whom we can add more value. Our strategy will focus on Mexico as a priority market, as well as Chile and Colombia, and the good news is that we will have a team providing support from Miami and New York.
We find that structurally Mexico is very attractive, especially the institutional business. The demographic profile is very strong, and it is a very consolidated market, with a robust base of professional investors that is growing because the country is growing. Holding periods are very long-term, and that is where we can help from the perspective of an active manager, also with our knowledge-transfer philosophy. We have decades of experience in portfolio construction and risk management and are among the largest providers of target-date funds in the U.S.
In Chile and Colombia there is some volatility because they are carrying out reforms to their pension systems, so we still need to wait and see what results they produce, but they could structurally become very attractive markets. In these cases, we are talking about establishing traditional indices in line with the structures of target-date funds. And that will improve, for example, aspects such as holding periods, which will lengthen.
Brazil’s case is a bit different; it is more of a strategic objective. It is unusual due to the structure of its risk-free rate, which means that the investment horizon is very different and risk appetite as well. We are talking with some potential partners to establish strategic alliances with them. We do not want to have people on the ground everywhere. We focus on building our presence where it makes sense.
Capital Group has maintained a very controlled product range for years, but more recently has begun to introduce new developments, such as active ETFs. Where is the firm’s product innovation heading?
We have mainly two areas of innovation. The first is our own investment process, which we have developed since the 1950s but which remains very innovative. It is our modular portfolio system, in which we have many managers managing their own module within a portfolio, where they put their highest-conviction ideas.
In addition, a certain percentage of our funds — not all, but most — also has an allocation that we call the ‘research portfolio’ with the best investment ideas from our analysts, because at Capital Group it is common for analysts to manage money from a very early stage and to be as senior as the managers themselves, so they not only have to make recommendations — which they do — they also have to invest.
Therefore, our investment process is innovative in itself, and in constant evolution.
The other area of innovation has to do with our approach that it is necessary to provide clients with a vehicle of their choice. It can be an ETF, an Act 40 fund, a UCITS fund… In the Americas, obviously, the market has changed and now investors can use more types of vehicles. ETFs are a good example. We have been working over the last six years to lay the foundations on which we can provide the same service outside the U.S. that we provide in the U.S. This has included expanding our UCITS range and increasing the number of segregated portfolios, including a great deal of customization that we did not previously offer. We do not see it as innovation for the sake of innovation, but as a natural evolution of our business in response to the way clients want to work with us.
What interest are offshore and LatAm investors showing in ETFs?
We have seen more interest from institutional clients in Mexico following a regulatory change in the country. For us it is a great opportunity and we believe we can help, not only with the product but also on the educational side. We can provide all our knowledge about these vehicles, regarding scale, trading, and the risk process. We can also transfer that knowledge in Chile and Colombia.
More broadly, the structure of active ETFs offers investors an efficient way to access our strategies and the underlying investment advantages. In addition, it allows us to apply our expertise in portfolio construction, trading, and risk management consistently across all regions, thus meeting client demand in Europe and Asia.
In general, we believe that ETFs will become an increasingly important part of asset management globally, and we expect to be part of that evolution. In the U.S., we are currently among the asset managers with the highest organic growth, with around $120 billion in active ETFs, reflecting strong client demand for this type of structure.
Speaking of the vehicle of choice, you have also launched very innovative solutions together with KKR to enter the private assets market.
I think we have been pioneers in bringing hybrid funds to market. Clients want to have private assets in their portfolios, and that is becoming a normal allocation. We wanted to provide private assets for our clients’ portfolios, and we like to think that our strategies can be the ‘core’ of a portfolio, but when we looked at how to approach private markets and how to provide the best for our clients, we came to the conclusion that it would take us a long time to develop the right capabilities on our own, so we analyzed the leading managers in the private space and ended up partnering with KKR because we consider that they have a very similar culture to ours.
Photo courtesyFrank Groven, Head of Global Financial Institutions at Robeco; and Amr Albialy, Head of Institutional Sales for EMEA and North America at Robeco
Robeco has appointed Amr Albialy as Head of Institutional Sales for EMEA and North America, and Frank Groven as Head of Global Financial Institutions, a new role within Robeco’s Wholesale division. These two senior appointments within the sales and marketing team will be effective as of April 1, 2026. Both reflect the strength of internal talent and reinforce the company’s commitment to long-term commercial growth in key global markets.
Amr Albialy has served as interim Head of Institutional Sales for EMEA and North America since September 2025. Based in Dubai, he will continue to lead the sales business in the Middle East and Central Asia. He joined Robeco in 2011 as Head of Sales for the Middle East business and later became Regional Head of Institutional Sales for the Middle East and Central Asia. Over the past 15 years, he has been instrumental in expanding Robeco’s institutional presence in the region, delivering strong commercial performance, driving growth, and building long-standing strategic partnerships with clients.
Frank Groven has been appointed Head of Global Financial Institutions. He will be responsible for leading and expanding Robeco’s commercial relationships with global financial institutions, accelerating the development of the firm’s global wholesale distribution strategy. Groven previously served as Head of Wholesale for Belgium and Luxembourg (BeLux) and has been with Robeco for more than 18 years, initially joining as a Fixed Income Client Portfolio Manager. Since 2012, he has led commercial development in the BeLux region. To ensure continuity in BeLux, Erik van de Weele, currently Sales Manager BeLux, will assume Frank Groven’s responsibilities as interim head of the region.
Ivo Frielink, Global Head of Sales and Marketing at Robeco, stated that he is pleased “to strengthen our sales team with these senior roles filled by trusted colleagues from within our own organization. Both bring extensive experience, proven commercial strength, and a strong commitment to our clients, our colleagues, and our strategy. Their appointments ensure continuity in our leadership and reinforce our ability to execute long-term commercial objectives. I look forward to working together as we continue building on Robeco’s growth ambitions.”
