Foto: Zorka Ostojic Espinoza
. Janus lanza un fondo de retorno absoluto global y asignación dinámica de activos
Janus Capital Group recently announced the launch of the Janus Adaptive Global Allocation Fund that aims to provide investors total returns by dynamically allocating assets across a portfolio of global equity and fixed-income investments.
Ashwin Alankar, Global Head of Asset Allocation and Risk Management, and Enrique Chang, Chief Investment Officer, Equities and Asset Allocation, are the fund’s portfolio managers. Chief Investment Strategist Myron Scholes, Ph.D., co-led the research and development of the fund with Alankar and will contribute to the overall investment strategy.
The Janus Adaptive Global Allocation Fund is designed to adapt allocations actively based on forward-looking views regarding extreme market movements, both positive and negative.
“While most investment approaches look for average outcomes, this adaptive global allocation fund seeks to manage outcomes that have the largest impact on growth, namely left and right tail events,” Alankar said.
The launch of the Janus Adaptive Global Allocation Fund furthers Janus’ Chief Executive Officer Dick Weil’sdiversification strategy, which included the July 2014 hiring of Alankar and Myron Scholes to begin designing asset allocation options for clients.
Foto: Chris Shervey
. AXA IM facilita y acelera el proceso de toma de decisiones de inversión
AXA Investment Managers announced a collaboration with State Street and MKT MediaStats to evaluate data-driven indicators that help analyse economic and market information.
MKT MediaStats is focused on financial market implications of increasingly available ‘big data’ from multiple sources, and is founded and led by well-known academic researchers. It leverages and extends into the commercial realm of considerable academic research done by its partners. The State Street PriceStats inflation series is a daily measure of inflation derived from prices posted to public websites by hundreds of online retailers.
“AXA IM, MKT MediaStats and State Street share a commitment to exploring new data sources that can enhance our ability to make timely and well-informed investment decisions,” said Joseph Pinto, chief operating officer at AXA Investment Managers. “Leveraging these big-data solutions will allow us to advance our client service on multiple fronts. Not only are we increasing the amount of knowledge available to us, but we are also cutting down on the amount of time spent manually sorting through information resources.”
“Investor success in the coming years will continue to largely depend on the ability to rapidly access and synthesise an exponential amount of information. Our goal is to bridge the gap between financial decision making and academic thinking to help investors achieve their return and risk objectives.” said Jessica Donohue, chief innovation officer for State Street Global Exchange.
MKT MediaStats uses unstructured data from many sources, including 25,000 distinct media sources, to derive a wide variety of indications of market behavior, such as sentiment, price movements, risk, and liquidity of individual assets.
The State Street PriceStats inflation indices are generated using software that scans the underlying code on public websites to capture the full array of products sold by online retailers, including food, beverages, electronics, apparel, furniture, household products, prescription drugs, and over-the-counter medicines. The technology monitors price fluctuations on roughly five million items sold by hundreds of online retailers in more than 70 countries.
Traditionally, equity people are supposed to be more optimistic than bond people, but I am prepared to buck the stereotype just a little as we enter day four of the Q1 earnings season.
Brad Tank, our fixed income CIO, followed Erik Knutzen in expressing cautious optimism that U.S. corporate earnings would recover enough in the second half of 2016 to justify much of the market rally that we’ve enjoyed since mid-February. They both wanted the economy to “show them the money” before dialing-up risk, as they put it, but they saw changes in the recent trends in the U.S. dollar and oil as the foundation for this recovery.
Truthfully, we are talking small degrees here. Brad and Erik both emphasized caution—as Erik put it, things were never as dark as they seemed on February 12, and they are probably not as bright as they seem today. Nor am I about to argue that we’ve inflated a bubble and stand on the brink of savage correction. Nonetheless, I think it’s fair to say that I am a little more circumspect.
The market pendulum tends to swing too far in both directions. Does the simple recognition that the world is not about to end explain why the S&P 500 Index went up more than 15% in 10 weeks? At 17.0-17.5 times forward earnings, U.S. large caps will not look particularly cheap should run-rate earnings for Q1 2016 come in at around $100-$105 per share, as seems likely. That’s a long way from the $120-$125 per share that we feel is required to support today’s multiples.
Amid the headline-grabbing extremes of pessimism, the more sober talk in January and February was of an earnings recession, and I don’t see anything that has fundamentally changed that narrative.
For sure, dollar strength has eased—but wasn’t that already underway by the second half of 2015? And yes, energy may be less of a drag this year—but does it follow that we are about to see break-out numbers from the financial, industrial, or consumer sectors?
Financials are especially important as it’s difficult to sustain a rally of this strength while banks are struggling to generate positive earnings. Q1 earnings from JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo and Citigroup have been released. We are used to the game in which analysts set expectations so low they’re almost impossible to miss: JPMorgan’s earnings per share beat the 13% slide that had been estimated. But the real takeaway was simple: the largest bank by assets in the U.S. saw its earnings fall by 7%. Citigroup’s, Bank of America’s and Wells Fargo’s reports told a similar story, with capital markets weakness hurting the first two and energy exposure the latter.
Elsewhere, some good news emerged out of Italy last week as a better-than-expected support program was thrashed out for its struggling lenders, but on the whole, European banks have performed poorly despite the expansionist policies announced by the ECB in March. Dealogic estimates that revenues in global investment banking are down 36% year-on-year, which would represent the toughest Q1 since 2009.
This background explains the elements of caution that underlie this rally in U.S. stocks. Small caps are still down year-to-date. The big value sectors that bore the brunt of the New Year sell-off, energy, materials and industrials, are up 6-8%, but the other big performers are defensive consumer staples and utilities.
I believe this is a “relief rally” that lacks a degree of conviction and is really a response to the excessive pessimism of the New Year. Again, to be clear, we are not talking about extremes in valuations. But the pendulum has swung far enough that I don’t feel compelled to chase this market, and I would need to see much firmer evidence of an earnings revival over the coming seasons to change my mind.
Despite suffering from the collapse in energy prices, and a -3.7% GDP growth in 2015, Russia’s financial assets have been having a positive performance, but can this go on?
According to Lars Peter Nielsen, Senior Portfolio Manager at Global Evolution and part of the team that In March 2016 visited Russia to evaluate if the recent strong performance of financial assets can continue, “the economic mix is very supportive for fixed income investors. We are increasingly convinced that inflation will come down strongly this year and be close to the 4% target next year which should provide further support for local currency denominated debt. The Russian Ruble should also be well supported as long as the oil price is stable around USD 40 per barrel. If RUB was to appreciate strongly we could see the Central Bank start to rebuild reserves, but they seem to prefer a stronger RUB for now to help combat the inflation.”
Global Evolution believes Russia’s Central Bank “will do whatever it takes” to get 4% inflation. they are also certain that Russia’s GDP will continue in negative territory in 2016, and “Without structural reforms longer term potential growth is at most 2%.” accompanied by a tight fiscal policy.
Photo: eric chan. Los inversores se decantan por el efectivo, mientras continúan los miedos de que las políticas monetarias no funcionen
According to the latest BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research report, conducted from April 1-7, 2016, average cash balances jumped up to 5.4% from 5% in March, approaching the 15 year-high of 5.6% recorded in February While the three top most crowded trades are Shorting Emerging Markets, Long US dollar, and Long Quality Stocks.
“With valuations for bonds and equities at their seventh highest reading in 13 years, investors may be turning to cash to protect against the downside while shunning risk assets where valuations constrain the upside. Range-based trading is likely to continue,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch.
Regarding the US Monetary Policy, the vast majority of fund managers still expect no more than two Fed hikes in the next 12 months, while “Quantitative Failure” remains one of the biggest tail risks. Meanwhile in Europe, a record percentage of fund managers see EU monetary policy as “too stimulative” while confidence in this policy as an economic growth driver drops sharply to 15% from 24% in March
The survey also noted that investors have rotated into staples and cash, from Japan, discretionary, commodities and Eurozone. Allocation to Japanese equities marked its first underweight positioning since December 2012.
According to Manish Kabra, European equity and quantitative strategist, “Global investors highlight Quantitative Failure as the biggest tail-risk, followed closely by Brexit. However, despite significant convergence in previously extreme regional preferences, Europe remains the most attractive region globally.”
Foto: Janie Coffey
. FIBA Wealth Management Forum: "Transformación y oportunidades: el enigma de la consolidación”
One of the most prestigious Weatlh Managemet industry meetings in Florida, the FIBA Wealth Management Forum, organized by the Florida International Bankers Association, will be taking place this year at the Ritz Carlton Hotel, Coconut Grove, on May 5th and 6th. Under the title “Transformation and Opportunities: The Consolidation Conundrum” the event, in its 4th edition, will gather recognized industry professionals, regulators, and experts to discuss, share, and update the perspectives of the industry.
During this two-day conference, challenges and opportunities in the current and future wealth landscape will be analyzed in roundtable discussions, interactive role focused workshops and open debates that bring the industry’s players together to learn from each other, network and share best practices.
Specific case examples will be provided by the US Secret Service highlighting some of the local, federal and transnational arrests of these criminals as well as some of the methods they are currently utilizing to target High Net Worth Individuals and Corporations.
The Keynotes speakers will be Eduardo Mora, Director, Head of the Latin America Offshore Wealth Business, Blackrock, who will talk about “The Voice of the Investor”; And Tej Vakta, Senior Leader – Global Capital Markets Practice, Capgemini, who will do it aboutGenNext: The Future of Banking – The Impact of Technology & Social Media.
Among the speakers, David McWilliams, Head of Wealth Management Transformation, UBS; James Walker, COO and Head of Business Development – PB Americas, Credit Suisse; Roberto Martins, Chief Information Officer, Itaú Private Bank; Jacobo Gadala-Maria, President and CIO, Unimar Financial Services; Will discuss about the topic: “Transformation. How the players and the markets have moved but the wealth is still there. What does it mean for the industry, participants and most importantly, the clients?”
For registration or additional information you may use this link.
Generali Investments Europe appointed Jörg Asmussen as an independent director to the company’s Board of Directors, since April 1st.
Santo Borsellino, Chief Executive Officer of Generali Investments, says: “On behalf of everyone here at Generali Investments, I am delighted to welcome Jörg to our Board of Directors. His outstanding expertise, and the wealth of experience in international financial markets he brings to the Board, will be instrumental in reinforcing our international footprint and further driving our expansion in the European markets”.
Jörg Asmussen (49) has been State Secretary at the German Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs between 2013 and 2015. Prior to that, he had been a Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank (ECB) from 2012 to 2013, and State Secretary at the German Federal Ministry of Finance (2008-2011), where he held a succession of positions before.
Asmussen replaces Antonella Baldino, who resigned as independent member of Generali Investments Board of Directors in March.
Daniel Pierce, foto cedida. Daniel Pierce, nuevo socio en accelerando associates
accelerando associates, a European fund distribution consultant, strengthens its capacities with the hire of Daniel Pierce from Wells Fargo in London. Pierce joins as a partner and will work with Philip Kalus in accelerando’s offices in Valencia.
Daniel Pierce has more than 16 years experience in the asset management industry, on both sides of the Atlantic. Pierce joins accelerando from Wells Fargo, where he worked as Investment Management Specialist EMEA. Prior to Wells Fargo, Pierce has held various positions at Citi, including Cross Asset Group Fund Sales EMEA in London, and Smith Barney in Dallas. Pierce has relocated with his wife and his two daughters from London to Valencia. “accelerando associates has built a stellar reputation and has an impressive client book. However, there is still a lot of room to develop the firm and client solutions further, which is an exciting opportunity“ says Pierce. “I trust I can make a meaningful contribution to accelerando’s further development“.
“I am, as all of my colleagues truly excited about Daniel joining us. He brings in a lot of additional experience, thorough technical knowledge and most importantly the right mindset to think beyond and to challenge widespread beliefs and practices in asset management as well as in fund distribution,“ states Philip Kalus, founder and managing partner of accelerando associates. “Our team of five combines now 70 years experience in the asset management industry, with 48 years experience in fund distribution, which provides a major competitive advantage versus our peers,“ continues Kalus. “In addition we have four different nationalities in the team and we speak five European languages fluently, which helps enormously to dive deep into different European fund markets and to get the nuances in fund buyer trends and requirements right.“
accelerando associates, founded in 2004, is a leading European fund distribution consultancy with offices in Frankfurt, London and Valencia and provides European fund distribution research and bespoke strategic advice to asset management firms worldwide.
Foto: Simon Cunningham
. El mercado de financiación alternativa online en Estados Unidos supera los 36.000 millones en 2015
The online alternative finance market, including crowdfunding and peer-to-peer lending, is exploding in the U.S., generating more than $36 billion in funding in 2015, up from $11 billion in 2014, according to a new report published by KPMG, the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance and the Polsky Center at the Chicago Booth School of Business.
“The emergence of new FinTech companies will continue to transform the financial services sector,” said Fiona Grandi, National Leader for FinTech, KPMG. “The pace of disruption is sure to accelerate, forging the need and appetite for collaboration among incumbents and non-bank innovators.”
Breaking New Ground: The Americas Alternative Finance Benchmarking Report analyzed online alternative finance activity across the Americas. Among its key findings is that financial, financial innovations and the technologies that enable them have exploded by 9x in just two years, from a total market size of $4.5 billion in 2013 to $36.5 billion in 2015 – the U.S. makes up 99 percent of that.
When analyzing the various funding models, the report found that marketplace/P2P consumer lending is the largest market segment in the U.S., responsible for more than $25 billion in 2015 and a total of $36 billion from 2013-2015. U.S. Businesses are also increasingly tapping into alternative finance to the tune of $6.8 billion in 2015 alone, which is significant when comparing the total for 2013 and 2014 of $10 billion.
Between 2013 and 2015, U.S. online alternative finance platforms have provided $52 billion in funding to individuals and businesses, according to the report. During that same time, these platforms facilitated roughly $11 billion of capital into 270,000 small and medium sized enterprises. In addition to consumer and business funding, the report also found that real estate models are scaling rapidly, generating nearly $1.3 billion in 2015.
The report points to several game-changing drivers of transformation that are impacting the banking industry, including the following:
Speed:Using algorithmic technology, credit decisions and underwriting takes minutes, not days.
Transparency:Investors and borrowers alike gain visibility into the loan portfolios, including risks and rewards.
Customer-centric:Platforms bring the “brick and mortar” branch into the on-demand and mobile application generation.
Data:Platforms have re-engineered the definition of credit worthiness. FICO may still be a factor, but it’s no longer the only factor.
Grandi added: “These changes are permanent benchmarks that banks must now rise up to meet. You may argue whether today’s unicorns will be here tomorrow; however, the shift towards the digital bank is indisputable.”
Foto: Davide D'Amico
. Londres se mantiene como mayor centro financiero mundial, por delante de Nueva York
Both cities gained four points in the ratings and London remains eight points ahead of New York. The GFCI, published recently by Z/Yen, is on a scale of 1,000 points and a lead of eight is fairly insignificant. The author continues to believe that the two centers are complimentary rather than purely competitive. A number of respondents commented that the uncertainty surrounding the possible exit of the UK from the EU is having a negative impact on London’s competitiveness at present.
London, New York, Singapore and Hong Kong remain the four leading global financial centers. Singapore has overtaken Hong Kong to become the third ranked center by just two points. Tokyo, in fifth place, is 72 points behind London. The top financial centers of the world are all well developed, sophisticated and cosmopolitan cities in their own right. Successful people are attracted to successful cities and it is perhaps no surprise that financial services professionals rank these centers so high.
North American centers fortunes in GFCI 19 are mixed. Of the financial centers in the USA, New York, Washington DC and Los Angeles rose in the ratings. The three leading Canadian centers fell in the ratings after strong rises in the past year. Toronto remains the leading Canadian center with Montreal in second and Vancouver in third.
Western European centers remain mired in uncertainty. The leading centers in Europe are London, Zurich, Geneva, Luxembourg and Frankfurt. Of the 29 centers in this region, 12 centers rose in the ratings and 17 centers fell. Rome, Madrid and Brussels, three centers closely associated with the Eurozone crisis have shown signs of recovery.
Latin America and the Caribbean suffer. All centers in this region, with the single exception of Mexico City fall sharply in GFCI 19. The offshore centers in the Caribbean (in common with the British Crown Dependencies listed under Western Europe) all suffered declines along with the Brazilian centers Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.
Seven of the top ten Asia/Pacific centers see a fall in their ratings. Singapore, Tokyo and Beijing rose slightly in GFCI 19. Of the top ten centers in this region, Seoul and Sydney showed the largest falls.
Centers in the Middle East and Africa also fell in GFCI 19. Having made gains in GFCI 18 all centers in this region, except Casablanca, fell in the ratings. Dubai remains the leading center in the region, followed by Tel Aviv and Abu Dhabi. Casablanca rose 11 places and is now fourth in the region.
