Peru’s president-elect, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, faces the delicate task of balancing fiscal stimulus with prudent maintenance of public finances, Fitch Ratings says. Moreover, he will be tasked with ensuring that infrastructure investments and proposed tax-regime changes yield sustainable growth beyond their short-term impact. In the medium term, the sovereign rating will depend in part on the government’s ability to adjust public finances to lower copper mining revenues.
Peru’s creditworthiness is based on its track record of macroeconomic policy credibility, consistency and flexibility, as well as strong fiscal and external balance sheets. These factors have enabled the country to navigate risks such as its high commodity dependence, low government revenue base and financial dollarization.
Kuczynski’s party indicated it will rely on fiscal stimulus to offset the negative impact of decreased copper prices through a ramp-up of public investment and adjustments to the tax regime to favor small-business formalization and private investment. Rising copper production and increased public investment aim to achieve growth of 3.5% in 2016 and 4.0% in 2017. While Peru’s growth averaged 5.8% from 2011 to 2015, Fitch Ratings expects the economy will continue to outperform the ‘BBB’ median, with 2.4% and 2.9% growth in 2016 and 2017, respectively.
Peru maintains low general government debt of 22.8% of GDP in 2015. Savings, including a 4%-of-GDP stabilization fund and a large cushion of local and regional government deposits, would allow Peru to implement a moderate, short-term, counter-cyclical fiscal policy. However, the interim pace of fiscal deterioration and the medium-term consolidation strategy of maintaining fiscal credibility and policy consistency should be key in assessing Peru’s credit profile.
The president-elect and new Congress will be inaugurated on July 28, and the executive must publish a five-year policy agenda within 90 days of that date.
Sustaining Peru’s growth trajectory will depend upon the success of initiatives that include improving the country’s transit, energy and logistics infrastructure while raising the productivity of alternative sectors such as tourism and agriculture. It will also depend on creating conditions that will move labor formalization forward and broaden the tax base. Moreover, an improvement in credibly managing and resolving social conflicts in mining investments would be critical to the recovery of the country’s competitive mining sector.
The Congress will play an important role in these major reforms. On April 10, Kuczynski’s party, Peruanos por el Kambio, received a 15% minority share of deputies in Peru’s unicameral Congress, while the center-right party, Fuerza Popular, led by Keiko Fujimori, won a simple majority. However, the left-leaning Frente Amplio, with strong support in the southern mining provinces obtained similar representation as Kuczynski’s party. Therefore, the passage of the president-elect’s agenda will depend on how well Kuczynski’s administration builds consensus on key legislative reforms.
Foto: Clarissa Blackburn
. Lazard Asset Management lanza un nuevo fondo global multiactivo
Lazard Asset Management (LAM) has announced the expansion of its multi asset offerings with the launch of the Lazard Global Dynamic Multi Asset Portfolio.
The Lazard Global Dynamic Multi Asset Portfolio (the “Fund”) is an addition to the Lazard Multi Asset platform of strategies that deploy capital based on the team’s forecast of expected global market risks, returns and opportunities. The firm’s multi asset team manages it.
“We are focused on constructing a portfolio with the objective of delivering a consistent level of volatility regardless of market environment,” said Jai Jacob, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager/Analyst. “We put risk management at the center of our approach by targeting volatility to an 8-12% band. We feel that this approach helps alleviate drawdown risk, which is one of the major concerns for global investors.”
“The Fund marries our macroeconomic insight to our bottom-upsecurity selection across the global capital markets opportunity set to seek strong risk-adjusted returns for our investors,” said Ronald Temple, Managing Director and Co-Head of Multi Asset Investing. “We achieve this by allocating capital across asset classes and securities based on our market forecast,” he added.
As of March 31, 2016, LAM and affiliated asset management companies in the Lazard Group managed $191 billion worth of client assets.
The secondary debt market Debitos is to cooperate with the DDC Financial Group from Prague, which focuses on markets in the CEE region. Among other activities, the service company organises Forums across Europe & USA on the subject of buying and selling distressed investments.
By working with this new strategic partner the Frankfurt-based fintech company intends to focus more closely on other European countries. “We are looking forward to doing business with the DDC Financial Group. This partnership helps us to bridge the gap between the capital needed in the CEE region and specialised investors from US/UK markets. We were particularly impressed by DDC’s innovative online and multimedia offering and its Forum format. This is an important step for us to establish our business model in other countries”, said Timur Peters, managing director of Debitos GmbH. Already around one in ten of the 390 investors registered on the online portal come from outside Germany – mostly of them from English-speaking countries.
In the USA there is already an established market for distressed investments and this alternative asset class now plays an important role there in corporate turnarounds. Distressed investments are also gaining traction in Europe: DDC Financial Group helps its customers to open up new markets in this area and also supports them with market research.
Although most companies have perfected the art of managing analysts’ expectations, the corporate earnings season is producing fewer surprises although the general trend of a slowdown in profits seems to be continuing. This is the view of Guy Wagner, and his team, published in their monthly analysis, ‘Highlights’.
After the rebound in February and March, equity markets saw little change in April. The S&P 500 in the United States, the Stoxx 600 in Europe, and the MSCI Emerging Markets (in USD) gained respectively during the month, while the Topix in Japan gave up a bit. “Since most companies have perfected the art of managing analysts’ expectations, the corporate earnings season is producing fewer surprises although the general trend of a slowdown in profits seems to be continuing. The main support for the equity markets is the lack of alternatives, even though the deterioration of economic fundamentals is of increasing concern”, says Guy Wagner, Chief Investment Officer at Banque de Luxembourg and managing director of the asset management company BLI – Banque de Luxembourg Investments.
Stabilisation of China’s economy is due to the government’s stimulus measures Although the global economy is continuing to grow, there has been notable divergence in the different regions’ performance in recent weeks. While growth in US gross domestic product (GDP) slowed on the back of weak investment and exports, China’s GDP climbed. “However, the stabilisation of China’s economy is once again due to the government’s stimulus measures which are exacerbating the country’s excessive debt problem”, believes the Luxembourgish economist. In Europe, economic growth is stable despite a host of political crises. In Japan, the hoped-for economic recovery under the ‘Abenomics’ plan has not yet materialised.
Europe: no prospect of a change to the ECB’s accommodative monetary policy stance As expected, the US Federal Reserve kept its key interest rates unchanged at its April meeting. Fed Chairman Janet Yellen left the door open for a potential increase in interest rates during the year, although she remained very reticent about such a probability. In Europe, in response to a raft of criticism in recent weeks, European Central Bank’s (ECB) President Mario Draghi justified the rationale of the negative interest rate policy. Guy Wagner: “There is no prospect of a change to the ECB’s very accommodative monetary policy stance of recent years.”
European government bonds could despite weak or even negative yields gain Bond yields rose slightly in April. Over the month, the 10-year government bond yield inched up in Germany, in Italy, in Spain and in the United States. “In Europe, the main attraction of the bond markets, despite their weak yields, lies in the prospect of interest rates going deeper into negative territory and this being implemented on a greater scale by the ECB during 2016. In the United States, the higher yields on long bond issues give them some residual potential for appreciation without having to factor in negative yields to maturity”, concludes Guy Wagner.
According to the European Fund and Asset Management Association (EFAMA) the European investment fund industry during the first quarter of 2016 saw net sales of UCITS and AIF which reached EUR 37 billion, compared to EUR 171 billion in Q4 2015. The sharp drop in net sales was mostly due to lower net sales of UCITS.
EFAMA points out that UCITS net sales registered net outflows of EUR 6 billion, compared to net inflows of EUR 122 billion in Q4 2015. Long-term UCITS, i.e. UCITS excluding money market funds, recorded net outflows of 4 billion, compared to net inflows of EUR 83 billion in Q4 2015.
Equity funds recorded a turnaround in net sales, from net inflows of EUR 57 billion in Q4 2015 to net outflows of EUR 3 billion in Q1 2016. Net sales of multi-asset funds slowed down from EUR 31 billion in Q4 2015 to EUR 6 billion in Q1 2016. While Bond funds continued to record net outflows, i.e. EUR 9 billion, the same level as in Q4 2015.
UCITS money market funds also saw a turnaround in net sales, from net inflows of EUR 39 billion in Q1 2015 to net outflows of EUR 2 billion in Q1 2016. AIF net sales amounted to EUR 43 billion in Q1 2016, compared to EUR 48 billion in Q4 2015. The solid net sales performance of AIF reflected the good net sales level of equity funds (EUR 7 billion, compared to net outflows of EUR 5 billion in Q4 2015), and of multi-assets funds (EUR 20 billion, compared to EUR 15 billion in Q4 2015).
Given this, total European investment fund net assets decreased by 2.1% in Q1 2016 to EUR 13,039 billion. Net assets of UCITS fell by 3.4% in Q1 2016 to EUR 7,907 billion, and total net assets of AIFs only decreased by 0.1% to EUR.
Bernard Delbecque, Director of Economics and Research at EFAMA commented on these results: “The stock market sell-off in early 2016 and uncertainties about the future direction of interest rates had a negative impact on the net sales of UCITS during the first quarter of 2016. On a positive note, the net outflows remained very limited (0.07% of UCITS assets), and AIFs continued to show solid net sales level. This confirms that UCITS and AIF investors are resilient to market volatility”.
Foto: Michael Pardo
. El número de inversores institucionales activos en CTAs alcanza su record en 2015
The latest report from Preqin finds that increasing numbers of active investors and a positive general view of performance among existing investors have driven inflows into CTAs over recent quarters. The number of institutional investors actively investing in CTAs reached a record 1,067 in 2015, up from 1,017 in 2014. The total assets under management for CTAs is at $241bn as of the end of Q1, up from $204bn at the beginning of 2015.
Furthermore, 69% of investors interviewed at the end of 2015 reported that their CTA portfolios had met their performance expectations for the year, the second highest proportion of any leading hedge fund strategy. In the same survey, 29% of all hedge fund investors said they planned on increasing their exposure to CTAs in 2016, while only 5% intended to decrease it.
CTAs have seen four quarters of net inflows of capital since the start of 2015, with net asset flows of $38bn in new investor capital committed to the strategy. Although CTAs returned only -0.08% in 2015, 2016 began strongly with funds making gains of 1.52% in the first quarter. CTAs as a whole saw net inflows of $13.7bn in Q1 2016, the highest of any leading strategy.
New CTA launches peaked in 2013, with 153 funds launched in the year. Since then, the rate of launches has declined; there were just 73 new fund launches in 2015 and 12 so far in 2016, just 6% of all hedge fund inceptions.
“CTAs play an important role in a number of institutional investors’ portfolios. These vehicles, operating trading strategies across a wide range of commodity and financial markets, offer the possibility of returns with low correlation to other financial markets and can smooth returns in investor portfolios. With recent widespread turbulence, it is perhaps unsurprising that increasing numbers of investors have been attracted to CTAs’ potential for low correlation to other investments.
Partly as a result of this, so far in 2016 CTAs have seen the highest level of inflows across all leading hedge strategies. Despite a difficult performance year in 2015, CTAs have seen solid returns in the opening months of 2016, and if these gains persist we may yet see further inflows from investors,” said Amy Bensted, Head of Hedge Fund Products, Preqin.
Joël Reuland, manager of the BL-Global wealth management mixed funds, answers nine questions as he presents its fund BL-Global 50.
Joël, what type of assets does the fund invest in? Joël Reuland (JR): BL-Global 50 is invested between 35% and 65% in equities, the balance being in bonds, cash or precious metals. The fund’s equity portfolio is invested worldwide in high-quality companies with a sustainable competitive advantage. The bond portfolio only invests in government bonds. Exposure to precious metals is mainly an insurance against systemic risk.
What is the management strategy? JR: Pour In our view, the fund manager’s role is largely to avoid errors: an investment that loses 50% has to double before it can get back to square one. The asymmetrical pattern of losses and gains explains our aversion to risk, to which end we are prepared to sacrifice exceptional gains. We aim to achieve asset growth over the long term by avoiding losses. Accordingly, we only invest in things we understand and we steer clear of areas outside our expertise. We don’t invest in financial stocks because they are not transparent or in mining companies as their results are too dependent on commodity price trends which we can’t predict. We are reluctant to invest in highly cyclical companies given the difficulty of accurately anticipating periods of recession. We limit potential errors by not investing in products we don’t understand.
How else can you reduce the portfolio’s risk? JR: For each proposed investment, we calculate an intrinsic value. For equities, this is based on our forecast for the company’s recurrent cash flow. To reduce the probability of losses, we invest when the share price offers a discount to the company’s intrinsic value. Losses will be mitigated as long as our investment thesis is not mistaken.
Given such a prudent approach, at what point are you prepared to take more risk? JR: We take more risks when valuation discounts are favourable. Psychologically this is not always easy as the discounts can become significant during very stressful periods on the market. This is when opportunities open up, as they did at the end of 2008 and beginning of 2009. And since we select high quality stocks, their share price tends to recover after the crisis period. Once the stress has subsided, we become more cautious again. This may mean that we don’t extract every ounce from episodes of stock market euphoria but it’s the price we pay for avoiding substantial losses. And it’s a strategy that proves its worth over a full economic cycle. What we don’t lose in the downturn more than outweighs what we miss out on during the euphoric phases. Losses and gains are so very asymmetrical…
Do you put more into bonds when you have less investment in equities? JR: To some extent, yes. However, the fund is limited to government bonds. We don’t take any corporate risk in the bond portfolio, which should stabilise the portfolio during stock market stress periods. With high debt levels around the world, our credit risk is currently confined to Germany and the United States.
This is despite the fact that yields to maturity on German government bonds are negative, even for long maturities… JR: Obviously bonds aren’t as attractive now as they have been over the last 25 years. But having said that, even with negative yields to maturity, bonds could continue to appreciate if yields go deeper into negative territory. It may seem absurd, but that is a consequence of Mario Draghi‘s negative interest rate policy. And if the ECB cuts interest rates even further, to -2% or -3% to “force” consumers to spend their savings, government bond prices will continue to rise. Eventually, this type of monetary policy is likely to be inflationary, but bonds will go up in the meantime. This is why, despite negative YTMs, we are still invested in German government bonds. However, we have confined ourselves to maturities of 2017 to 2020 due to the longer-term inflation risks of such a policy.
In the United States, YTMs are still positive JR: In relative terms, US Treasury bonds continue to be attractive. This is why the US bonds in our portfolio have longer maturities than the German bonds. But we are keeping a close watch on the situation. With such high debt, it is increasingly likely that the central banks will deploy a deliberately inflationary monetary policy. We haven’t got to that point yet but it’s getting closer. This is why bonds with longer maturities are much more risky.
Given the low attraction of bonds, is there an alternative for diversification? JR: Gold is a definite option. The more disconnected the central banks’ monetary policies become, the greater the rationale for having gold in a portfolio. The main reason why gold has not gone up more so far despite the central banks’ quantitative easing policies is that these policies have not created inflation. But weak inflation is not surprising if the technique of quantitative easing is fully understood. On the other hand, if the central banks change tack and decide to deliberately create inflation, that is certainly achievable. And at that point, the gold price will pick up. But then you never can tell. If investors lose confidence in the central banks’ disconnected strategies, it could be useful to have exposure to the ultimate currency as, unlike paper currencies, it cannot be printed at will.
What performance can investors in BL-Global 50 expect? JR: Since the fund’s launch in October 1993, BL-Global 50 has generated a return of 4.5% per annum. However, this historic return cannot be considered representative for the future now that market conditions have totally changed. Due to the central banks’ unconventional monetary policies, money market and bond investments offer almost zero yield. So everything hangs on equities which, given the scale of the economic imbalances, are likely to trade at lower valuations. Protecting purchasing power without suffering excessive volatility has become the watchword for the future. This might seem like an ambitious target, but given the virtually zero or even negative yields on offer for bond and money market investments, protecting purchasing power takes on a totally new meaning.
Last month, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) announced the outcome of its first EU-wide stress testing exercise that covered 17 of the EU’s largest clearinghouses (central counterparties; CCPs). In a report titled ESMA Stress Tests Underscore The Likely Resilience Of EU Clearinghouses But Do Not Offer A Clean Bill Of Health that was published on the second half of May, S&P Global Ratings comments on the usefulness of this exercise, the assumptions used, and the implications of ESMA’s findings.
They mention that the test focused narrowly on each CCP’s ability to withstand the counterparty credit risk that it could face as a result of multiple clearing member defaults and simultaneous severe market price shocks. The publicly communicated results cited broad findings, on a no-names basis. Nevertheless, S&P Global Ratings recognizes that this is the first such multi-CCP exercise that, to their knowledge, any CCP regulator has conducted.
“We regard it as a thoughtful and useful exercise that aids transparency in the sector, in an area where external parties can sometimes struggle to make a comparative assessment,” said S&P Global Ratings analyst Giles Edwards. “It could also serve as a catalyst to further enhance risk management standards at some EU CCPs, and ensure better consistency and comparability of CCPs’ individual stress testing methodologies.”
For S&P Global Ratings, the results of these exercises add further information, on top of their other surveillance, on the likely adequacy of a CCP’s financial resources within the waterfall. Their views of CCP creditworthiness continue to take into account other inputs, such as a CCP’s ownership structure, liquidity in a member default scenario, profitability and leverage, and sustainability as a business.
“While it was a narrowly focused exercise and identified some weaknesses, overall the results confirm our view that EU CCP regulation and supervision generally ensure a satisfactory baseline standard of CCP risk management,” said Edwards. “Looking forward, we anticipate that these stress testing exercises will become a regular fixture of regulatory oversight of CCPs in the EU and, potentially, beyond.”
Foto: Sander van der Wel
. Franklin Templeton lanza su primera suite de ETFs de beta estratégico
Franklin Templeton Investments announced on Monday the launch of its first suite of strategic beta exchange traded funds (ETFs), within LibertyShares, a new line of business. The funds track the LibertyQ indices developed with the asset management company´s team of quantitative experts who have a broad experience developing quantitative active equity strategies. “We approached the creation of the LibertyQ indices in the same way we have approached quantitative stock selection, and we believe that, just as with discretionary stock picking, all factors are not created equal—some are more correlated to certain outcomes,” said Patrick O’Connor, head of Global Exchange Traded Funds for the company.
The suite includes three multi-factor core portfolio funds and one fund that focuses on stocks with high and persistent dividend income. The firm´s strategic beta ETFs use proprietary LibertyQ indices1, which have employed a research-driven approach in customizing their factor weightings – The indices are constructed with four factors.
“Many of our clients have embraced the ETF wrapper for its benefits, including liquidity, tax efficiency and transparency, and now they are looking for more than what a traditional market cap-weighted index can offer,” added O’Connor.
The three core multi-factor funds use indices that apply an approach of using custom factor weightings—quality (50%), value (30%), momentum (10%) and low volatility (10%)—in seeking to capture desirable, long-term performance attributes.
The new funds are:
Franklin LibertyQ Global Equity ETF offers global equity exposure.
Franklin LibertyQ Emerging Markets ETF offers broad emerging markets exposure.
Franklin LibertyQ International Equity Hedged ETF offers international developed markets exposure.
Franklin LibertyQ Global Dividend ETF offers global exposure to high-quality, dividend-oriented stocks to help meet investors’ needs for income and total return.
“The launch of LibertyShares, taking an active approach to ETFs, is a strong complement to our commitment to active management,” added Greg Johnson, chairman and CEO of Franklin Resources.
Foto: Angel Torres
. La inversión responsable, esa gran desconocida
Over three quarters (77 percent) of affluent US investors say that they want their assets to have a positive impact on society. Many may see investing as an extension of their focus on social issues, with 86 percent of respondents tending to recycle every day, 71 percent preferring reusable bags, and 61 percent shopping for brands that adhere to sustainable business practices.
Yet with interest in social impact growing, and the availability of more responsible investment options than ever before, greater than one in three investment advisors (36 percent) concede that they are not able to adequately evaluate performance of responsible investments, and two in five affluent investors (40 percent) report they are unsure if they currently own responsible investments within their portfolios. These findings, revealed in a new TIAA Global Asset Management survey of investors and advisors across the country, expose a fundamental challenge to the investing category: the lack of understanding among investors and advisors of what responsible investing really is.
“While interest in responsible investing continues to grow, a significant portion of individual investors and their advisors are still unsure about what it means to implement these strategies in today’s investment portfolio,” said Amy O’Brien, managing director and head of the firm´s Responsible Investment team. “Too many investors still question how to define responsible investing and whether they can produce competitive returns.”
“The fact is that responsible investing strategies vary widely in their intent and approach. As an industry, we need to do a better job of helping investors understand how these strategies work and what role they can play in a diversified portfolio.”
“Many people want their investments to reflect their values,” said Jill Popovich, managing director, Individual Advisory Services at the company. “We find that talking to clients about their personal values as well as their financial goals helps build deeper and lasting relationships. Often clients are pleased to learn that they can have a well-diversified portfolio with responsible investments.”
This knowledge gap also creates a missed opportunity for advisors to build client loyalty over time. According to the survey, almost three-quarters of investors (74 percent) would be more likely to work with an advisor who could give them competitive investment returns from investments that also made a positive impact on society and 65 percent of investors would be more likely to stay with an advisor who could discuss responsible investing with them.
Meanwhile, just 45 percent of advisors believe this would be the case, and often choose not to address responsible investing options with their clients – over three in five investors (61 percent) indicated that their advisor had not brought up the topic of responsible investing in the past twelve months. This disconnect suggests that too many advisors forgo a chance to develop stronger relationships with their clients as a result of not communicating about these strategies.
The results of the survey suggest a need to develop a better understanding of responsible investing overall. Seventy-four percent of advisors reported an interest in learning more about responsible investing options to better serve their clients. Developing a shared understanding of responsible investing terminology and benchmarks may be particularly helpful for non-millennial investors who hold significantly less of their assets in ESG options than those between the ages of 18-34 (22 percent vs. 65 percent, respectively).
The survey also suggests that misperceptions about the role and benefits of responsible investing may be limiting adoption rates. While interest in responsible investments is strong, investors are doubtful of the availability of best-in-class products. In fact, more than one in four affluent investors and advisors responded that responsible investment options are very limited or that the category lacks quality choices. More notably, over half (51 percent) of financial advisors believe responsible investing does not provide the same rate of return as other investment strategies, while 57 percent of investors believe responsible investing offers a lower rate of return than other strategies.
“More investors are considering the balance between leveraging their assets to have a social or environmental outcome while seeking competitive performance. According to our recent socially responsible investing performance analysis, indexes that follow SRI guidelines delivered long-term performance returns comparable to the broad market benchmarks,” said O’Brien. “Incorporating environmental, social and governance criteria in individual security selection can in fact deliver market competitive returns.”
