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Bill Gross: “Worry About the Return “Of” Your Money, Not the Return “On” It”

In his July’s letter to investors, Bill Gross states that if “Fed Governors and Presidents understood a little bit more about Monopoly, and a tad less about outdated historical models such as the Taylor Rule and the Phillips Curve, then our economy and its future prospects might be a little better off.”

Without forgetting of other effects such as Brexit, the growing Populist movement and the possibility of what he calls de-globalization (less trade, immigration and economic growth), he highlights the $200 you get when passing go, mentioning it is like new credit, “responsible for the ongoing health of our finance-based economy. Without new credit, economic growth moves in reverse and individual player “bankruptcies” become more probable.”

He also explains how at the beginning of the game when “the bank”- which he compares to private banking, gives out the initial $1,500 growth is strong but eventually it starts to decelerate.

After explaining that money supply or “credit” growth is not the only determinant of GDP but the velocity of that money or credit is important too and that today’s “contribution of velocity to GDP growth is coming to an end and may even be creating negative growth,” he goes on to warn about that this means that “at best, a ceiling on risk asset prices (stocks, high yield bonds, private equity, real estate) and at worst, minus signs at year’s end that force investors to abandon hope for future returns compared to historic examples. Worry for now about the return “of” your money, not the return “on” it. Our Monopoly-based economy requires credit creation and if it stays low, the future losers will grow in number.” He concludes.

You can read the full letter in the following link.

Henrique Cardoso Believes that Brazil has Reached a Turning Point

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Over 2000 people gathered in Atibaia during the 24^th, 25^th, and 26^thof June to attend XP Investimentos’ sixth national convention, one of the largest events held in Latin America for investment professionals. The Expert 2016 event was attended by such international fund management companies with a local presence as Franklin Templeton, BlackRock, JP Morgan AM, BNP Paribas AM, Deutsche Bank, BNY Mellon, and Mirae Assets; local fund managers with a prominent role in Brazilian and Latin American markets such as the Group’s own fund manager, XP Gestão de Recursos, thefund management companies within the Azimut Group, Questy AZ and AZ Legan, BTG Pactual, Bozano Investimentos, Votorantim Asset, and Valora Gestão de Investimentos, amongst others. In addition, banks and insurance companies such as Porto Seguro, Prudential, Sulamérica Investimentos, and Icatú Seguros, as well as the fund distributor and custodian platform, Allfunds Bank, also participated.

During this financial industry trade fair, there was also time for conferences, training sessions and presentation of awards. The event kicked off with a welcome to all attendees by Guilherme Benchimol, XP Investimentos President and Founding Partner of XP Group. Benchimol recalled the company’s beginnings, reviewing its development from the outset. Gabriel Leal, a partner at XP Group and the company’s Retail Business Director, spoke about the current situation in the markets and the future of XP Group.

Next, Abilio Diniz, current President of the Board of Directors at Península Participaçoes, spoke about the challenges currently faced by Brazil. Diniz recommended trying to understand the country’s current crisis by using the example of the ideograms that make up the word “crisis” in Mandarin Chinese: “danger” and “opportunity”. Thus, he informed of the need for: survival spirit, monitoring costs closely, assessing the crisis as a whole, avoiding to blame the crisis, looking in the mirror rather than out of the window, and anticipating, all in order to exit the crisis stronger. Abilio Diniz, who along with his father Valentim, was responsible for developing one of the country’s largest retail distribution networks, Grupo Pão de Açúcar, is also Chairman of the Board at BRF, and member of the board of directors for the Carrefour Group in Brazil.

Later, Martin Escobari, entrepreneurial and private equity investor partner in charge of General Atlantic’s operations in Latin America, shared his three rules for investing even in times of low visibility. For Escobari, the first rule is to look to the future, something relatively easy to do in markets such as Brazil which, to a certain extent, lag behind more developed markets. As an example, he mentioned the mutual funds retail distribution market in the US during the seventies, in which 80% of the funds were distributed through banks and 20% by independent firms, and its evolution to the present, in which 98% of investment funds are distributed by independent entities; while the Brazilian funds’ distribution market is almost entirely in the hands of banks, which portends a trend in the migration of savings towards independent channels. As a second rule, he recommended reacting quickly to market conditions, and finally, as a third rule, looking for resistance by investing in companies that do not depend on the country’s situation.

During his presentation, José Gallo, Director and President at Lojas Renner, spoke of the need to ‘enchant’ the client, the importance of developing an emotional attachment to the construction of a brand, and simplifying the management process as much as possible.

Finally, one of the most exciting moments of the day was when the audience stood to welcome the ‘Eternal President’, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, President of Brazil for two consecutive terms, from 1995 to 2003. Cardoso gave an overview of the extremism currently present in global politics, with the very recent Brexit results and the US presidential elections before the end of the year. With regard to the economic crisis currently faced by Latin America’s largest economy, Cardoso referred to the years of the global financial crisis and the performance of the financial team under Lula’s government, during which there was an increase in public spending, credit, and consumption, without an increase in investment, which in his opinion is a “Recipe for Disaster.” The former president also spoke of the need to reform the Brazilian political system, in which the more than 30 parties participating in Congress prevent setting a course for implementing the political agenda, he therefore commented on the need to return from cohabitation presidentialism to coalition presidentialism. As for the future of Brazil, Cardoso believes that the country reached a turning point where the Lava-Jato operation was a necessary and positive step for advancement. His only fear is the possible emergence of “backward” political demagogues who do not culturally perceive the need for what needs to be done. At the economic level, he trusts the dynamism of Brazilian industry and agriculture as a force to recover the path to growth. When asked if he would be willing to return to the forefront of politics, the former president’s felt honored by the request, but declined politely, joking that at 85 years of age, a return to politics would shorten his life significantly.

PIMCO Strengthens its Emerging Markets Team

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PIMCO, a leading global investment management firm, has hired Gene Frieda as Executive Vice President and Global Strategist for the firm’s emerging markets and global strategies and Yacov Arnopolin as Executive Vice President and Emerging Markets Portfolio Manager. They will both be based in PIMCO’s London office.

Frieda, who will work primarily with the emerging markets team but will also contribute to other global, country and sector strategies, will report to Andrew Balls, Managing Director and Chief Investment Officer – Global Fixed Income. Arnopolin, who will focus primarily on emerging markets external debt strategies, will report to Michael Gomez, Managing Director and Head of the Emerging Markets Portfolio Management team.

“Gene and Yacov are two tremendous additions to our global macroeconomic and emerging markets portfolio management expertise, as their deep experience will bolster PIMCO’s investment process and tap the investment opportunities we see for clients in emerging markets,” said Dan Ivascyn, Managing Director and PIMCO’s Group Chief Investment Officer. He added: “PIMCO will continue to use its considerable resources to hire the best industry talent globally. Already this year, we have hired more than 130 new employees, including 14 portfolio managers and 20 more investment professionals across many areas including alternatives, client analytics, mortgages, real estate and macroeconomics.”

Frieda joins PIMCO from Moore Capital Management where he was a Partner and Senior Global Strategist. Prior to that, he was the Global Head of Emerging Markets Research and Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland. Prior to joining PIMCO, Arnopolin was a Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Goldman Sachs Asset Management in New York where he helped oversee emerging market portfolios for institutional clients such as pension funds, insurance companies and sovereign wealth funds.

“Gene and Yacov bring nearly 40 years of combined investment experience and complement other specialized resources we have added in recent years, including in emerging markets corporates and local markets,” said Gomez.

“As the adverse global backdrop of lower commodity prices and a stronger dollar give way to a more constructive picture for emerging markets, now is an exciting time to be adding two such talented investment professionals as Gene and Yacov to the PIMCO team,” said Balls.

Digital Advice Could Offer a Solution For U.S. Consumers With Too Small Portfolios For Financial Advisors

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According to new research from Cerulli Associates, digital advice could offer a solution for U.S. consumers with portfolios too small to attract the attention of financial advisors.

“The mass market and the lower end of the middle market are underserved by financial advisors,” states Tom O’Shea, associate director at Cerulli. “A vast majority of consumers do not possess the assets necessary to merit attention from financial advisors.”

“Digital advice innovation presents an opportunity to enhance the efficiency of advisors servicing small accounts,” O’Shea adds. “Combining human and digital advice can strengthen the fiduciary foundation of the client recommendations. This combination also allows an advisor to scale their practice in such a way that he or she can profitably manage the smaller accounts of mass-market consumers.”

“Almost 90 million U.S. households have investable assets of less than $100,000,” O’Shea explains. “Yet, only 8% of financial advisors treat this segment as their core market. The overwhelming majority of advisors target clients with higher levels of investable assets.”

“It is not that advisors are unwilling to help small investors,” O’Shea continues. “Rather, they cannot figure out how to make money when working with them, leaving investors to go it alone or rely on guidance provided by direct-to-consumer firms.”

GAM Acquires UK Based Cantab Capital Partners

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Zurich headquartered GAM, the industry’s third-biggest provider of liquid alternative UCITS funds, announced the acquisition of Cantab Capital Partners, an industry-leading, multi-strategy systematic manager based in Cambridge, UK. Cantab manages USD 4.0 billion in assets for institutional clients worldwide.

At the same time, GAM launches GAM Systematic, a new investment platform dedicated to systematic products and solutions across liquid alternatives and long-only traditional asset classes including equities, debt and multi asset. Cantab will form the cornerstone of GAM Systematic.

By moving into the growing segment of scalable systematic investing, GAM takes an important step to deliver on its long-term objective to expand and diversify its active asset management business. Leading systematic strategies are attracting substantial allocations from investors globally due to their compelling returns and their rigorous, disciplined investment processes.

According to a press release, “GAM Systematic will complement GAM’s successful active discretionary investment offering. It will also serve as the Group’s innovation hub for the development of new technologies, investment ideas and approaches for systematic strategies and products.”

Alexander S. Friedman, Group Chief Executive Officer of GAM, said: “We have been evaluating how best to enter the systematic space for the past 18 months because we believe it represents an important capability for an active investment firm in the current environment and in the decades to come. GAM Systematic will offer our clients a compelling range of unique products complementary to our strong discretionary product range at a time when the investment industry is challenged to provide cost-efficient, liquid and diversified sources of returns.”

“The market turmoil following the UK referendum last week has only reinforced our determination to pursue, and deliver on, our strategy of diversification and long-term growth. In Cantab we are acquiring industry-leading intellectual capital, a highly distinguished decade-long investment performance track record, and a profitable and scalable business. In combination with GAM’s global distribution reach, I am convinced that this business is well positioned for significant growth.” He concluded.

BNP Paribas Creates an Intermediate Holding Company in the United States

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BNP Paribas has announced the creation of an Intermediate Holding Company (IHC), BNP Paribas USA, Inc., effective 1 July 2016. This decision signals the bank’s commitment to the US market, its largest market-by commitments as of 12/31/15- outside Europe and a region that is central to its businesses and development plans.

As a large Foreign Banking Organization, the bank is required by new regulation to place all its controlled US subsidiaries under a US holding company. BNP Paribas USA will hold the retail subsidiary ‘BancWest’ and the Corporate and Institutional Banking’s (CIB) and asset management subsidiaries in the United States.

The wholesale and retail businesses in the United States have seen significant growth over the past couple of years: in 2015 CIB and Retail Banking & Services increased their revenues in North America by, respectively, 15% and 5% (in USD) vs 2014. Today the Group employs over 16,000 people in the country.

Michael Shepherd becomes Chairman of the new holding and retains his chairmanship of BancWest. And Jean-Yves Fillion, Head of CIB Americas becomes its CEO.

Brexit… Pursued by a Bear?

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Early “Brexit” impact was localized, but tail risk persists.

When the U.K. voted to leave the European Union, I happened to be in the thick of it, on a business visit to London. When I turned in on the night of 23 June, the opinion polls showed the race to be neck-and-neck, but financial markets were increasingly confident that a “Remain” vote would be returned. The comment we published the next morning was not the one we’d anticipated.

You had to be there to get a good sense of the shock the “Leave” vote caused. It has set off the U.K.’s biggest political and constitutional upheaval in 70 years. But what do markets make of it all?

Large-Cap Equities Erase Losses
Our initial response was to convey our view that fears of a “Lehman moment” were overblown. The vote hadn’t changed the fact that we are in a slow-growth, low-inflation, low-interest rate environment. Sure enough, the FTSE 100 Index powered back through its pre-Brexit level at the end of last week. The S&P 500 Index has also been reversing its losses. Global risk assets were recovering even before Bank of England Governor Mark Carney boosted them by hinting, last Thursday, at “some monetary policy easing” over the summer. It looks like our first instinct was a good one.

We have now experienced a handful of these V-shaped moves in markets over the past two years, over which time both the price and the earnings of the S&P 500 have remained virtually unchanged. Indeed, it’s the “slow, low, low” background that is both stagnating earnings and allowing specific or localized shocks to cause outsized short-term volatility; it makes the margin of error for investors so thin.

And there is no shortage of additional potential shocks coming our way. The U.S. still has to choose between two (at least publicly) anti-trade Presidential candidates in November, and Spain’s latest general election kicked off an 18-month cycle that will include Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands. But as long as the underlying fundamentals remain unchanged, volatility from these events can create opportunity, which is why we stress the importance of focusing on fundamentals rather than news headlines. Amid the noise of last week, for example, the Atlanta Fed raised its forecast for U.S. Q2 real GDP growth to 2.7%, while the Eurozone printed a positive headline inflation number and its lowest unemployment in five years.

The Impact Has Been Localized
This is not to say that the vote hasn’t inflicted damage. At the end of last week, the FTSE 250 Index, which better represents the U.K. economy than the global, often U.S. dollar-earning companies of the FTSE 100, was still some 5% short of pre-Brexit levels. European stocks remained down by a similar amount. This is as challenging for the E.U. as for the U.K. itself: Standard & Poor’s downgraded both entities last week.

And then of course there is the pound sterling. Its 8% one-day drop against the U.S. dollar on 24 June was the biggest since the end of Bretton Woods. A recovery last week was stopped in its tracks by those comments from Mark Carney.

So far, so rational. Global markets in general have recovered, with those most exposed to the longer-term implications of “Brexit” re-priced for weaker performance.

Still “Slow, Low, Low”—But More So
Where the vote has had a broader impact, it’s “more of the same”. “Brexit” hasn’t changed the “slow, low, low” dynamic, but may have amplified it. Fed Funds futures now forecast that the U.S. central bank will be on hold at least into next year. The prospect of monetary tightening disappearing over the horizon has driven bond yields lower. The two-year U.K. Gilt yield went negative for the first time last week, the entire Swiss curve is dipping in and out of negative territory and the German Bund yield has sunk to uncharted depths. And now the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is also flirting with historic lows.

This puts banking-sector profits under more pressure: at the end of last week European banks were still down 15%-20% since the vote, but U.S. banks remained down 4%-5%, too. But does it forecast similar gloom for non-financial corporate earnings? This is something Joe Amato discussed a couple of weeks ago, and we still think bonds are being pushed by technical pressures rather than fear of an outright collapse in growth and earnings—and so far equity markets appear to agree.

Nonetheless, we believe this is a time for caution, not complacency. If the U.K.’s voters have articulated a cry of rage against trade and globalization that is heard and echoed further afield, we could see more than a localized effect on growth prospects. In Spain a week ago the electorate responded to “Brexit” by moving back towards the center, but there are still many more occasions for political risks to spill into global economic fundamentals—and for markets to hit bumps that are much harder to overcome.

Neuberger Berman’s CIO insight column by Erik L. Knutzen

North America Drives Private Equity Fundraising in Q2 2016

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The private equity fundraising market accelerated in Q2, as 180 funds closed securing a combined $101bn. Given that these numbers are expected to rise 10-15% as more information becomes available, the aggregate capital secured by funds closed in the quarter looks set to approach the record $112bn seen in Q4 2013. However, while the number of funds closed almost matches the 186 funds closed in the previous quarter, it falls some way short of the 261 funds that closed in the same period last year.

The majority (54%) of private equity funds closed in H1 2016 have closed above their target size, a record high. Just 21% of funds have closed below their target size, down from 28% of funds that did so in 2015.  

The level of uncalled capital available to fund managers of core private equity strategies hit new record highs, rising from $745bn at the end of 2015 to $818bn as of the end of June 2016.

As of the start of July, there are 1,720 private equity funds in market worldwide, targeting an aggregate $447bn, compared to 1,630 funds that were seeking $488bn at the start of the year. This is the first reduction in aggregate target capital since the start of 2014.  

North America-focused funds were the key driver of growth in the quarter; 96 funds focused on the region raised $60bn, accounting for 59% of the aggregate capital raised globally. By contrast, Europe saw 44 private equity funds raise just $33bn in Q2, of which the Ardian Secondary Fund VII accounts for $10.8bn. Only 11 buyout funds focused on the region closed, securing an aggregate $13bn. Elsewhere, 33 Asia-focused funds raised $6bn through the quarter, while seven funds focused on Rest of World raised $1.3bn.

“The second quarter of the year has seen robust fundraising activity, with over $100bn raised globally, despite the relatively low number of funds closed. This highlights the continuing trend seen of increased amounts of capital being allocated to a smaller number of experienced fund managers.

Global uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election and the British EU referendum have continued to cast a shadow over the industry, and while North America- focused fundraising has been robust, Europe seems to be experiencing a more cautious environment. With volatility persisting in the wake of Britain’s EU referendum result, we can expect further uncertainty to affect the European fundraising market.”Said Christopher Elvin, Head of Private Equity Products.

Generali Investments Among the Most Committed SRI Asset Managers in France

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Generali Investments has been included in the ‘High-impact Socially Responsible Investments’ category in the 2015 report of the responsible investments in France compiled by Novethic, the Paris-based SRI certification agency, auditor and research center and the creator of the first European SRI certification. For the first time ever, Novethic has split the group of assessed companies into three categories, on the basis of how impactful their SRI approach is on the investment choices. Generali Investments has been nominated in the category with the strongest impact.

“The Novethic recognition is testament to Generali Investments’ continuous effort on SRI”, has commented Franca Perin, Head of SRI of Generali Investments. “Being included among the 29 most committed SRI asset managers certifies that Generali Investments is at the forefront of responsible investing thanks to a stringent, proprietary and innovative methodology and top- notch ESG analysis capabilities”.

Novethic has assessed 55 asset management companies operating in France and integrating Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) criteria in their investment choices (barring mere exclusion principles). In the ‘High-impact SRI’ category, Novethic has included those managers applying either a best-in-class approach (i.e. excluding more than half of the investment universe, such as Generali Investments) or a best-in-universe approach (i.e. more than 25%) or offering thematic investments. The ‘High-impact SRI’ category accounted for €54 billion of assets in 2015, out of €746 billion of total responsible investments in France (+29% vs. 2014).

Headed by Franca Perin and composed of five analysts based in Paris, Generali Investments’ SRI team screens approximately 520 European listed companies in 26 different sectors on the basis of 34 ESG criteria. The criteria are applied in a way that rewards those companies making the ‘best efforts’ to reach the ‘best practice’. The initial universe is therefore halved, and the selected companies are included in the proprietary database S.A.R.A. (Sustainability Analysis of Responsible Asset Management). Generali Investments applies its SRI methodology to a portfolio of €30 billion in total. Generali Investments is also the appointed investment manager of two SRI funds – GIS SRI European Equity and GIS SRI Ageing Population.

Overall Sentiment Stagnates, but Vast Differences Remain between Men and Women

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After a significant increase in positivity toward personal finances last year, sentiments have stagnated, according to the latest Country Financial Security Index, a semiannual score measuring the overall sense of financial security in the United States.

In mid-2015, the Index score jumped 2.1 points to 66.9, the highest score reported since the financial crisis hit the U.S. in 2008. However, following the uptick, the score has moved at a fraction of that rate in the past year, settling in slightly lower at 66.7 in its latest reading.

On an individual level, many are accepting their current financial situation as a new normal. More than half of Americans – just over 51 percent – say their level of financial security is staying about the same. However, in general, men are more likely to believe their circumstances are improving than women.

“Americans seem to be settling into a new normal and accepting their less than ideal financial picture,” says Joe Buhrmann, manager of financial security at the company who run the research. “Yet, as the Country Financial Security Index score settles into its latest groove, women’s sentiments remain closer to record lows in the face of various societal issues that act as headwinds to achieving financial security.”

Meeting short-term goals reveals gender gap

In the aftermath of The Great Recession, Americans’ financial sentiments reached an all-time low of 63.7. Since reaching the bottom of the trough, the Index score amongst men has rebounded to 68.2, past the national average and near the all-time high of 69.3 set in June 2008.

However, the Index score amongst women remains stuck closer to the all-time low at 65.1 – and more than three in four women (76 percent) don’t see things getting better. At the same time, women are more likely to feel their overall financial situation is staying the same in comparison to men.

Men are making strides to improve their financial security on a short-term basis, making it easier to see their overall level of financial security improving:In the past three months, men are more likely than women to have set aside money for savings and investments; Men are also more likely to feel confident compared to women in their ability to pay debts – such as mortgages, car loans, credit cards and other debts – as they come due.

“When your day-to-day finances are out of order, it’s easy to feel overwhelmed – and the lack of confidence women are feeling overall is likely due to their inability to save, invest and pay off debts,” Buhrmann says. “Taking steps to adjust your expenses and spending habits can help establish a base for meeting both short-term and long-term financial goals.”

Large money matters weigh more on women

Beyond the basic short-term financial goals such as saving, investing and paying off debts, women have a more negative outlook when it comes to meeting longer-term financial goals.

“One tricky decision in particular is the choice between setting aside money for the college education of your children versus saving money for retirement,” Buhrmann says. “All parents struggle with this decision, but for women – single moms, especially – who are less likely to set aside money at all, this decision fuels some of their biggest financial worries.”

With the cost of a college education rising and longevity extending in the U.S., women are unsure about their ability to cover the costs: Women are significantly less confident they will have resources to send children to college than men and also feel significantly less likely they will have enough money and resources to enjoy a comfortable retirement.

“In order to meet long-term financial goals, everyone needs to have a plan and actively update it as their circumstances and desires change,” Buhrmann says. “A financial advisor can help address what seem like overwhelming financial burdens to ease the anxiety many women – and Americans in general – are feeling.”