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Melissa Hodgman Named Associate Director in SEC Enforcement Division

The Securities and Exchange Commission has announced that Melissa Hodgman has been named Associate Director in the SEC’s Enforcement Division. Hodgman succeeds Stephen L. Cohen, who left the SEC in June.

Hodgman began working in the Enforcement Division in 2008 as a staff attorney. She joined the Market Abuse Unit in 2010 and was promoted to Assistant Director in 2012.

Hodgman has investigated or supervised dozens of enforcement recommendations spanning a variety of misconduct, including: The SEC’s first case against a brokerage firm for failing to file SARs when appropriate; Fraud charges against a Wall Street CEO and his company, family members, and business associates accused of secretly obtaining control and manipulating the stock of Chinese companies they were purportedly guiding through the process of raising capital and becoming publicly-traded in the United States; And charges against Charles Schwab Investment Management, Charles Schwab & Co., and two executives for making misleading statements regarding the Schwab YieldPlus Fund and failing to establish, maintain and enforce policies and procedures to prevent the misuse of material, nonpublic information.

Hodgman has led the Enforcement Division’s Cross-Border Working Group, which provides expertise and assistance of matters with international actors and implications. Hodgman also co-founded and served as the enforcement representative on the Chair’s Attorney Honors Program, and is a member of the Enforcement Division’s hiring committee at its Washington D.C. headquarters.

“Melissa has supervised and investigated a broad range of noteworthy and first-of-their-kind cases across the spectrum of the securities industry and involving misconduct located around the world,” said Andrew J. Ceresney, Director of the SEC’s Enforcement Division. “She has distinguished herself with her excellent judgment and creativity, and I am pleased to have her join the senior ranks of the Enforcement Division.”

Hodgman said, “I am honored by this appointment and look forward to continuing our tradition of pursuing tough but fair enforcement actions in complex and cutting-edge cases, especially matters involving cross-border issues and efforts to hold gatekeepers accountable for breaches of their professional standards.”

Before joining the SEC staff, Hodgman worked as an associate at Milbank, Tweed, Hadley & McCloy in Washington. Hodgman earned her masters of law with distinction in securities and financial regulation in 2007 from Georgetown University Law Center, her law degree with high honors from Georgetown University Law Center in 1994, and her bachelor of science degree from Georgetown University School of Foreign Service in 1990. Hodgman received the Ellen B. Ross Award as well as an SEC Chairman’s Award in 2010.

Alfred F. Kelly Jr, to Become Visa’s CEO

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Visa announced on Monday that Charlie Scharf is resigning as chief executive officer effective December 1, 2016, and the board of directors has unanimously voted to appoint Alfred F. Kelly, Jr. as CEO. Kelly, a current Visa board member, is the president and chief executive officer of Intersection and the former president of American Express.

According to a press release, Scharf informed the board of directors that he decided to resign his position as CEO and board member because he could no longer spend the time in San Francisco necessary to do the job effectively. The board of directors did a rigorous review of a diverse set of internal and external candidates and is extremely gratified that Kelly has accepted the position. Kelly will join the company on October 31, 2016 as CEO designate. As part of the transition, Scharf will serve as an advisor to Kelly beginning December 1, 2016 for several months.

“Charlie has been a visionary CEO, highly successful by any set of metrics. He has helped transform Visa, the leading global payments technology company, into a technology-driven digital commerce company and has led a strategy that will benefit this company for years to come,” said Robert W. Matschullat, the company’s independent chairman. “The board of directors is extremely grateful for Charlie’s leadership and wishes to thank him for his outstanding four-year tenure, which saw total shareholder return increase by more than 130%, outperforming both the overall stock market and our peer group.”

“We are thrilled to have found someone with Al’s expertise and knowledge to take Visa to even greater heights. Al is a veteran payments industry executive who knows Visa well, having served as a board member for the past two-and-a-half years,” said Matschullat. “The board unanimously agrees that Al is the right leader for the company, and we expect a seamless transition given Al’s deep knowledge of the industry, demonstrated leadership capabilities, and his strong relationships with the talented management team currently in place.”

In his 23 years at American Express, Kelly held a variety of leadership positions. In addition to being president of American Express, he was head of the Global Consumer and Consumer Card Services groups. He currently serves on the board of directors of MetLife. And is a different Alfred F. Kelly, Jr from the one at UBS Wealth Management.

Scharf commented: “I love working and running this great global company and I am sad to have reached the conclusion that I should step down, but running a San Francisco based company just doesn’t work for me personally right now and wouldn’t be fair to Visa. It has been an incredible privilege and honor to work with my many colleagues who have contributed so significantly to our success and transformation, and have strengthened our position as the leading global payments provider. I feel confident that the clarity of our strategic goals and our decisive actions will ensure that we continue to thrive in this quickly evolving industry.”

“Visa is lucky to have Al Kelly as the next CEO. I and our senior management team have had the opportunity to work closely with Al – and those relationships, along with his depth and breadth of payment knowledge – will enable him to step in quickly without missing a beat. I, of course, will do everything I can to help make the transition as easy as possible for everyone. Al is the right person to lead Visa to continued success.”

Under Scharf’s leadership, Visa has strengthened its position in global electronic payments and has been a leader in bringing innovation to the industry. Visa has transformed its technology platform by opening access to its network and capabilities through the Visa Developer Center, partnered with the world’s leading technology companies to drive new payment experiences, introduced new technologies to improve payment system security, and built a world class management team. In addition, the company successfully completed the acquisition of Visa Europe in June 2016, and delivered strong financial results, with operating income climbing to $9.1 billion in FY 2015. Visa’s stock was added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2013.

Kelly said: “I am extremely excited and honored to take on this role and build on Charlie’s work and that of all of the employees at Visa. Visa is incredibly well positioned for continued success, and I look forward to joining this preeminent global organization. I have had the pleasure of getting to know many of the Visa executives during my time on the board, and they are a talented group of business leaders who have been relentlessly focused on driving Visa’s global strategy. I look forward to working with them, including Ryan McInerney, Visa’s President, in serving our clients. Charlie has positioned Visa for great success, and I thank him for his leadership.”

PRIIPs Regulatory Technical Standards Need to be Amended with Investors’ Concerns in Mind

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Better Finance and EFAMA have joined forces to call for investors’ concerns to be duly considered.

Both organisations have always been strong supporters of the “PRIIPs” Key Information Document (“KID”), seeing it as a powerful instrument for retail investors to enable sound investment choices by allowing easier comparisons within a wide range of investment products. In order for this to happen, the rules defining the detailed contents of the PRIIPs KID must be correctly calibrated so that investors are given meaningful, comprehensible and comparable information.

Unfortunately, the recently rejected draft RTSs on the PRIIPs KID suffer from a number of flaws, leading to clearly negative consequences for retail investors. Better Finance and EFAMA firmly believe these flaws need to be addressed if the RTS are to succeed in providing the right information to retail investors.

While Better Finance and EFAMA may have diverging views on other issues, those addressed in this letter are so crucial for individual investors as well as for asset managers that the two organisations have come to a consensual view here.

Peter de Proft, Director General of EFAMA, commented: “There are two crucial issues that need to be addressed: allowing the disclosure of past performance, and fixing the misleading disclosure of costs and fees, and in particular the calculation methodology of transaction costs. The joint letter explains why both topics need to be solved”.

Guillaume Prache, Director General of Better Finance, commented: “Past performances of an investment product are an extremely valuable piece of factual information for investors in their investment decision, if only for investors to know whether the product has made any money or not. It is very difficult to understand why investors should be deprived of such information”.

Both organisations call on the EU institutions to reflect on and address these two concerns in light of the fact that both are of utmost importance for retail investors, the very investors the PRIIPs Regulation is meant to protect.

Think Globally on Political Risk

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A couple of weeks ago, Joe Amato pleaded to be allowed to turn the channel on the U.S. presidential election debates. I sympathize.

“What all this focus on personality obscures are the actual issues the country faces,” he wrote. And that was before the lurid disclosures before the second debate and all the tabloid noise engulfing it.

Although it appears that Hillary Clinton has opened up a meaningful lead in national polls and has a clear path to the Electoral College votes she needs to win the presidency, extreme outcomes, ranging from a Democratic “sweep” of Congress to a surprise October comeback for Donald Trump despite an increasingly fractured Republican party, cannot be discounted.

Sour Politics Across the Developed World

At least we Americans can take comfort that some of our friends are more than matching us in the political-turmoil stakes. We could start with the French and German establishment battling to keep the far right at bay ahead of general elections next year, or Italy’s Matteo Renzi betting the credibility of the euro on a too-close-to-call referendum on constitutional process in December. But the real action has come from the U.K., and its brutal punishment in foreign exchange markets.

Sterling traded in a tight range since its immediate pummeling post-Brexit. The annual conference of the ruling Conservative Party changed all that.

Prime Minister Theresa May outlined a surprisingly interventionist plan with a distinctly economic-nationalist flavor that would preclude membership in the single market. But then finance minister Philip Hammond insisted that continued membership was not ruled out. The mixed messages sent sterling on a 7% tumble to $1.21, complete with a “flash crash” on October 6.

A Different Direction of Travel in Emerging Markets

Since returning from the Annual Meeting of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group last week, Brad Tank has been talking about the contrasting moods of the (upbeat) central bankers of the emerging world and their (exhausted) peers in the developed world. That raises a question: With all this souring of politics going on in the developed world, perhaps investors should look again at emerging markets?

We expect these markets to suffer political uncertainty, and they don’t disappoint. Hotheads talk of an attempted coup in the U.K., but Turkey had a real one. Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines reminds us that the emerging world has its share of interesting political characters. Vladimir Putin is hardly a friend of the post-Cold War settlement. The death of King Bhumibol Adulyadej last week could exacerbate tensions in Thailand.

But it’s the starting point and the direction of travel that counts. In some of the most important markets, new reforming leaders such as Narendra Modi, Michel Temer and Mauricio Macri are changing the narrative.

I drew attention to some of these trends back in April, when we were still edging cautiously into emerging markets and waiting for fundamentals to prove themselves. Since then, emerging-world growth has continued to outstrip that of the developed world, commodity prices have stabilized and currencies have recovered.

Emerging Markets Still Offer a Risk Premium

Despite this, the emerging world is still valued as if it were the riskier destination for your capital.

The forward price-to-earnings ratio on the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is currently around 13 times, compared to 17 times for large-cap U.S. equities. In bond markets, nominal yields have started to rise in the developed world but could go much further—real yields still average just 0.5%. In the emerging world, the average real yield is 3%. Relatively high risk is still priced into nominal yields even as currencies recover and inflation eases.

It’s this combination of easing financial conditions and increasing policy latitude that has the emerging world’s central bankers feeling upbeat. It’s a long way from the dilemma facing the Federal Reserve and its peers—and it provides a solid macroeconomic foundation for investors in emerging market assets.

To be sure, if toxic politics lead to toxic economics in the developed world, the fact that the emerging world increasingly trades with itself will likely provide only partial shelter. Moreover, intra-emerging market demand may be weaker than we all thought, if the 10% year-over-year drop in China’s exports revealed last Thursday is any guide. Overall, however, the direction of travel in politics, governance and economic fundamentals, paired with the high degree of risk still being priced into valuations, builds a compelling case for emerging country stock and bond markets over those of the developed world.

Neuberger Berman’s CIO insight by Erik Knutzen

ECB to Extend QE Eventually, but Not Just Yet

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Slight upside news for inflation, but still well below target

According to HSBC, we are not going to get a new forecast from the ECB on 20 October, but positive news for industrial production in Q3, the possibility of slightly looser fiscal policy in 2017 and a 5% rise in the EUR oil price imply slight upside news for inflation as the ECB prepares for its policy meeting.

For markets, the biggest news since the previous meeting was an ECB official quoted as saying that the “ECB might reduce purchases in steps of EUR10bn”. Some investors are taking the comments very seriously and, on top of the disappointment that the ECB did not extend QE in September, 10-year bund yields have risen around 20bps from their September trough.

Fabio Balboni and Simon Wells believe this small upside inflation news is unlikely to prompt a significant re-assessment by the ECB of its inflation forecast, which is well below target (1.2% in 2017, and 1.6% in 2018). The minutes of the September meeting made clear that the ECB “remained committed” to continuing asset purchases beyond March 2017 and “until the Governing Council saw a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim”. The sub-target inflation forecasts it made in September were conditional on market expectations of more (not less) monetary easing.

So in their view, it is too early for the ECB to start tapering its asset purchases.

Extend now, later or taper?

Once the technical constraints have been overcome, they continue to expect a six-month QE extension to be announced. Although an October extension might avoid a more heated debate in December as base effects push inflation up, more time may be needed for the ECB’s committees to complete their technical work. Also, the higher yields rise, the less binding the yield floor becomes.

“We therefore expect an extension to be announced at the 8th December meeting. Based on the ECB’s recent comments and inflation forecasts, we expect it to maintain the current purchase rate of EUR80bn per month. To do this, it may need to increase the issuance limit for bonds with Collective Action Clauses, but we also look at other options the ECB might have to explore. It is also possible that the ECB may start to signal its exit strategy from QE, once it thinks inflation is back on track.” They conclude.

EFAMA Publishes 2016 Report on Responsible Investment

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In its latest report on responsible investment, the European Fund and Asset Management Association (EFAMA) presents the European asset management industry’s role and involvement in responsible investment and puts forward key recommendations for the future. The report is an update of EFAMA’s previous 2014 report on the same topic.

The growing demand from investors to address environmental, social and governance ‘ESG’ matters in the investment decision-making process has created a global momentum around sustainable and responsible investments. European asset managers, as intermediaries between investors and companies, have a crucial role to play in driving this trend.

Responsible investment has long been a focus for EFAMA. This year’s report sets out EFAMA’s outlook and recommendations on the main questions surrounding responsible investment: the importance of reliable and accurate reporting by companies, the debate about investment performance and responsible investment, the role of legislation and the different selection methods in the responsible investment process.

Peter De Proft, Director General of EFAMA commented: “In the context of the increased focus on sustainable finance at EU level, we believe it is particularly timely to discuss the European asset management industry’s ever-growing role and involvement in responsible investment.”

“There is no doubt that demand for sustainable and responsible investment is growing. This is in part due to the recognition that economic sustainability will impact longer term value creation, however the changing social and ethical values of asset owners and the broader public have also strongly influenced this transition”.

He concluded: “The European asset management industry is determined to continue to play its part in this global effort to solve some of the most pressing issues of our generation. We hope that this report will provide guidance for this collective initiative”.

The second part of the report details country-by-country descriptions of the legal frameworks and various private sector initiatives in relation to responsible investment in different Member States.

The full report can be accessed here.

Smart Beta Questions with Active Management Answers

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The debate on active versus passive investing has evolved following the growth of transparent algorithmic investment approaches such as smart beta. Advocates of smart beta believe that it offers benchmark-beating returns with lower costs than active management. However, smart beta investing is more complex than many investors perceive and requires careful consideration. Despite this, the widespread availability of these alternative passive strategies has undeniably changed the investment landscape.

Standard Life Investments, the global investment manager, considers the reality of smart beta investing in its latest edition of Global Horizons. The key points evaluated in the paper are:

The pitfalls investors should be aware of when considering smart beta strategies, including a lack of clarity in investment objectives and limited sustainability.
As the active versus passive paradigm shifts, traditional market benchmarking will be increasingly superseded by outcome oriented mandates. Transparent algorithmic components such as smart beta have a role to play but should not be used as static allocations.
Flows in smart beta have been significant and can strongly influence asset prices.
This presents opportunities to active investors who take a multi-strategy approach and offers new chances in the area of stock selection

Arne Staal, Head of Multi-Asset Quantitative Strategies, commented “advances in technology, the increasing availability of data and the rapid growth of smart beta strategies results in a fast-changing and expanding opportunity set for investors. However, they have more complex evaluations and choices to make, and a wider range of associated costs to assess against desired outcomes. An awareness of the pitfalls in utilising transparent algorithmic investment strategies such as smart beta is increasing but not yet widely discussed. We advise investors to approach smart beta investing with similar levels of due diligence as they would for active managers. Most active managers deliver a combination of smart beta and pure alpha. Those that consciously position their business model to build portfolios through security selection and active allocation to a broad range of strategies will be best placed to achieve better outcomes for clients and benefit from this evolution in asset management.”

Italy’s Constitutional Referendum – Opportunities Amid Volatility?

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In a constitutional reform referendum on 4 December, Italian voters will weigh in on some key proposals, chief among them the abolition of the Senate’s legislative power. According to Nicola Mai, portfolio manager and leads sovereign credit research in Europe for PIMCO, this would leave the lower house (Chamber of Deputies) as the key legislative body, a move proponents say will streamline Italy’s political system, clear a path for needed reforms and ensure a clear winner in the next general election.

The specialist believes Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s pledge to resign if the reform fails has made the vote highly politicized, and the attendant political uncertainty has fueled nerves among market participants. Polls suggest the vote is too close to call, and the high proportion of undecideds (around 30%) compounds the uncertainty.

Potential scenarios

“While we believe a failure of the referendum to pass would hurt the country’s long-term political stability and reform prospects, we view the key risk to markets to be the election of an anti-establishment euroskeptic government – an outcome we think is unlikely irrespective of the referendum’s outcome (with a “no” arguably making the possibility even more remote).” In brief, at PIMCO, they envision the following scenarios:

A “yes” vote: Better for the markets. Italy would adopt an electoral system that delivers a clear winner, and Renzi would likely stay in power until the legislative term ends in 2018. At that point, it may become a close contest between Renzi and Beppe Grillo’s anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S).
A “no” vote: Politics as usual. Renzi would likely resign, but we would not expect new elections to be called (this because the Senate would retain legislative power and be elected with a proportional electoral system, which would probably deliver a hung parliament). President Sergio Mattarella would thus likely push for the formation of a transitional government – perhaps led by Renzi himself – tasked with implementing a new electoral law before proceeding to new elections. This scenario would feel like an old-style, “muddle through” political development for Italy, and would also hurt Grillo’s chances to win an election outright.

Longer-term caution, short-term opportunity

“We are cautious when investing in European assets over the medium term. Our secular investment focus on capital preservation is especially relevant for the region, where the macro outlook is underwhelming, political risk is elevated and compensation for that risk is slim.

In the near term, however, volatility in peripheral spreads and European risk assets could rise in the run-up to the referendum, and risk would likely underperform in the aftermath of a “no” vote. This could create opportunities to add risk at more attractive levels, especially in peripheral sovereigns, which remain anchored by the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing. We would be more cautious about Italian bank exposures, where vulnerabilities persist and where a “no” vote could further increase execution risk for banks’ ongoing recapitalization plans.” He concludes.

“Legg Mason Sees Growth Opportunities in Brazil, it Offers a Sophisticated Market for International Asset Managers”

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The passage of Directive 550 of the Securities and Exchange Commission (Comissao de Valores Mobiliarios) of Brazil, which went into effect in July 2015, provides greater access to international funds. Although Brazilian investors have opened up to investing in new asset classes in the last few years, Fernando Franco Franco, Head of distribution for Americas International at Legg Mason, recognizes that the main challenge that international managers face in Brazil is the need to inform clients on the value of diversified investments beyond their preference for domestic fixed income.

The enactment of the Brazilian regulation changed the definition of a qualified investor so that foreign asset managers can now distribute onshore funds to “mass affluent” clients, who before could only be served by local fund management companies with a clear bias towards the Brazilian domestic market. Previously, the Brazilian investor needed BRL 1 million to access a single international investment fund. Currently, Brazilian investors with of BRL 1 million in investable assets, can access structured vehicles outside Brazil that use a local “feeder” fund structure.

“With rising inflation and political volatility in recent years in Brazil, the real rates of return are lower, which represents an opportunity to offer clients European, Asian equities and US equities which may offer higher rates of return,” said Fernando Franco.

“Foreign asset management companies are in the process of helping the Brazilian investor get comfortable with international investments. Following the change in regulation, many US asset management companies have partnered with local fund managers to enter the market. Legg Mason has been present in the Brazilian market since 2005 when it bought Citigroup’s Asset Management business. Citi has had a presence in Brazil for more than 100 years..,” he added.

Legg Mason provides vehicles for investing in global equities, fixed income and alternative assets, such as investment in infrastructure and real estate, which allow clients access to a diversified portfolio through customized solutions.

Some of Legg Mason’s affiliates are Western Asset Management a large, global fixedincome provider; Martin Currie, a Scotland based firm which specializes in the active management of global equities; QS Investors, focuses on the quantitative management of global equities and multi-asset funds; RARE, a firm dedicated to investing in global infrastructure through listed securities; EntrustPermal, a specialist in global alternative investment, and a leader in fund of hedge fund investments, and Clarion Partners, a firm dedicated to investment in real estate.

When Legg Mason established its presence in Brazil in 2005 from the acquisition of Citigroup’s Asset Management business and due to Brazilian regulation, its main presence like other international fund managers, was with offshore clients. At that time, the main international players in the country were Merrill Lynch, Prudential, which was acquired by Wells Fargo, and Citigroup Asset Management, now Legg Mason, which had a presence in Chile, Uruguay, Mexico and Brazil.

“Brazil offers a strategic opportunity for global asset management companies because it is a mature and sophisticated market with developed private banking, family offices, institutional and retail investment markets. In my view, perhaps only the United States has a higher level of sophistication than Brazil in its distribution to institutional clients,” said Franco.

In addition to Brazil, Legg Mason has local presence in Chile and is committed to growing its presence in Latin America. “We are actively working in Mexico, Peru, Uruguay and assessing opportunities in other countries.”

China: Inflated Credit, Rising Defaults

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China’s credit markets continue to expand. In June the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a warning to Beijing to tackle corporate debt levels in state-owned enterprises (SOEs), by liquidating the weakest firms and restructurings. Defaults are rising from a low base. More than 20 bond defaults have been confirmed this year – an unprecedented number – as many companies, especially in industries with surplus production, struggle to meet their obligations amid China’s economic transformation.

In August the government acted to dispel the perception that it will always backstop losses for SOEs. An editorial in the People’s Daily, the official communist party mouthpiece, stated that bond defaults by Chinese SOEs should be handled through market-based mechanisms and the legal system. “Guaranteed repayment of bonds raises risks in SOE bonds and leads to higher leverage ratios and a build-up of risks,” the editorial said.

According to Investec Asset Management, by talking tough on defaults, Beijing seems to be keen to slow the rate at which corporate debt is growing. Currently credit growth is outstripping that of GDP by double-digit percentage points and the authorities are keen to slow this to come more in line to the economy as a whole. The China Banking and Regulatory Commission has also proposed to local banks and financial institutions for a coal and steel debt-to-equity programme to be established to help reduce the debt load.

“This trend may not necessarily be unwelcome, as it suggests China recognises that weaker companies should be allowed to fail. But which companies will default is hard to spot. China’s domestic credit-rating agencies have given an investment-grade rating to 99.5% of all publicly issued bonds. But again there are mixed messages. On 4 August, the National Business Daily published a piece suggesting that banks should act together and not “randomly stop giving or pulling loans.” Rather it suggested that they should either provide new loans after taking back the old ones or provide a loan extension, to fully help companies to solve their problems” the Investec team concludes.