According to Libby Cantrill, Executive Vice President in PIMCO’s Executive Office, now that Ted Cruz and John Kasich have dropped out of the race, Donald Trump is all but certain to receive the Republican nomination in July at the party’s convention. A Trump candidacy, however, doesn’t make it easier for investors to anticipate the possible economic and market implications of a Trump presidency if he were to win the U.S. general election in November. Here are two important reasons behind the uncertainty:
Trump does not necessarily subscribe to the conventional Republican orthodoxy of lower taxes, less spending and open markets made famous by President Ronald Reagan. Indeed, Trump’s economic agenda is more ideologically varied – with some tenets of Republican orthodoxy, such as lower taxes across the board, and with some Democratic principles, such as preserving Social Security and Medicare. Most famously, Trump’s extreme policy position on trade, which calls for a total overhaul of existing U.S. trade agreements and possible punitive action against U.S. trading partners, such as a 45% tariff on Chinese imports, does not belong to the platform of either party.
Trump’s stated economic policies are at times conflicting and often changing, which also makes it difficult for investors to interpret the possible consequences. For instance, several weeks ago in an interview with the Washington Post, Donald Trump called for a total elimination of the U.S. $19 trillion debt over the next eight years, which is effectively infeasible without abolishing most government spending and substantially increasing taxes. At the same time, Trump has called for a tax plan that would increase the debt by $9 trillion (according to the Tax Foundation). Trump has since walked away from the pledge to exhaust the U.S. debt but it still leaves observers wondering where he is focusing: on austerity or on fiscal expansion?
“What are investors supposed to do with a candidate whose economic ideology is divergent from that of his party’s, not to mention often inconsistent and fluid? At the very least, give it some time. Trump, who interestingly does not have much of a policy team to date, will have to hire experienced policy advisers who will help him solidify his economic agenda before heading into the convention – and certainly before he engages formally in debates with the other presumptive nominee, Hillary Clinton, a known policy wonk. At that point, we should have a better idea of what a Trump administration would mean for both the economy and the markets – for better or worse,” concludes Cantrill.
Martin Blessing will succeed Lukas Gaehwiler as President Personal & Corporate Banking and President UBS Switzerland in the Group Executive Board (GEB) of UBS, effective 1 September 2016. Blessing was CEO of Commerzbank AG until the end of April this year. During his 15 years on the Board of Managing Directors of Commerzbank, half of which as its Chairman, Blessing significantly shaped the firm. He managed the successful integration of Dresdner Bank and led the bank back to stability and a robust business model following the financial crisis. Today, Commerzbank is active in more than 50 countries, finances 30 percent of Germany’s foreign trade and is the undisputed leader in financing German SMEs. The firm serves around 15 million clients with over 50,000 employees. Prior to Commerzbank, Blessing was at Dresdner Bank and the consultancy McKinsey. He studied in St. Gallen, Switzerland, and Frankfurt am Main, Germany, following a bank apprenticeship.
Also effective 1 September 2016, Lukas Gaehwiler will take on a new strategic role as Chairman of the Region Switzerland, focusing on clients and other selected mandates. At the same time and at his own request, he will step down from his current operative roles as President UBS Switzerland and President Personal & Corporate Banking (P&C), as well as from the GEB. For more than six years, Gaehwiler has run the business of UBS in Switzerland very successfully. In that time, UBS regained its position as the unquestioned market-leading universal bank in its home market. He oversaw a sustained increase in profitability during challenging market conditions, with significant new client growth, as well as the successful digitalization of the business, continuous improvement in customer satisfaction, and the effective implementation of a new legal structure for UBS in Switzerland.
Group Chief Executive Officer Sergio P. Ermotti: “I thank Lukas Gaehwiler for his excellent work and am personally pleased that he will continue to remain close to UBS in his new role. With Martin Blessing we gain a professional with a proven track record and significant experience in all areas of the business for UBS. I am certain he will further advance our business in Switzerland and beyond.”
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrFoto cedida. Julius Baer nombra a Yves Robert-Charrue responsable en funciones de Investment Solutions Group
Julius Baer has appointed Yves Robert-Charrue as Head Investment Solutions Group (ISG) ad interim with immediate effect, in addition to his duties as Head Intermediaries. In his additional function, Yves Robert-Charrue will also report directly to CEO Boris F.J. Collardi.
He succeeds Burkhard Varnholt who, following realignments within ISG at the beginning of this year, has decided to leave the Bank at the end of May. According to Citywire, Varnholt will join rival firm Credit Suisse as deputy global chief investment officer within its investment solutions and products team. He will formally join in November. Varnholt will be based in Zurich and report to Michael Strobaek, global CIO and head of investment solutions and products.
As a result of these changes, Yves Bonzon will become sole Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Julius Baer. He will continue to lead the Bank’s Investment Management (IM) unit which is responsible for managing discretionary investment solutions.
Yves Robert-Charrue joined Julius Baer in 2009 and has been member of the Bank’s Executive Board since 2010. He already was Head ISG from 2010 to 2011 and can thus draw on this previous experience in leading the unit.
In the past two years, Burkhard Varnholt has been instrumental in shaping Julius Baer’s investment approach, enhancing its products and services offering and further developing the Next Generation platform. In particular, he has systematically integrated environmental, social and governance criteria into the selection of the assets.
Boris F.J. Collardi, CEO of Julius Baer, said: “I am pleased that Yves Robert-Charrue has agreed to assume the leadership of ISG ad interim. At the same time, I sincerely thank Burkhard Varnholt for his valuable contribution in the past years – thanks to his vision, Julius Baer has become a leading private bank with regard to responsible investing. We wish him the best of success for his future endeavours.”
BNY Mellon appointed Richard Gill as head of its Markets business in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA). Gill will lead the regional business strategy and have overall responsibility for managing Markets within EMEA. He will report to Michelle Neal, president of BNY Mellon Markets.
“Richard’s appointment allows us to better balance global and regional considerations in managing our businesses,” said Neal. “Our senior regional executives in EMEA and Asia Pacific (APAC) now have dual reporting lines to the head of the region and to the global head of their business. These changes will empower these executives and give them significant input on issues that affect local employees, business partners and clients.”
Gill has worked at BNY Mellon for over 20 years and his previous roles include co-head of FX Trading and chief FX Dealer. In his new position, he will also serve as a member of the Markets Executive Management Team, the Markets Risk Committee and the EMEA Chairman’s Forum. Regionally, Gill will continue to be based in London and report to Michael Cole-Fontayn, chairman of EMEA at BNY Mellon.
Mark Militello will continue as head of Markets APAC and report directly to Neal. Militello will also serve as a member of the Markets Executive Management Team, the Markets Risk Committee and the APAC Executive Committee. Regionally, Militello will continue to report to Steve Lackey, chairman of APAC at BNY Mellon.
Standard Life Investments and Bosera Asset Management announced on Monday the launch of the Bosera-Standard Life Investments Emerging Opportunities Bond Fund. The Fund signals the establishment of a strategic relationship between the two companies, with an aim to collaborate in several areas including joint product innovation and investment management cooperation.
The Fund is a sub-fund of Bosera Investment Funds, an umbrella unit trust established under the laws of Hong Kong. The Fund aims to achieve income and capital appreciation through primarily investing in global emerging market (EM) debt securities and EM currencies.
The development of the Fund builds on the combined strengths of Standard Life Investments’ strong emerging market debt investment capability and Bosera’s China fixed income expertise.
The new Fund will be managed by Kai He, Head of Fixed Income at Bosera International, who is responsible for portfolio allocation in the mainland China and Hong Kong, and for the investment management of the Fund overall. The sub-manager of the Fund is Richard House, Head of Emerging Markets Fixed Income at Standard Life Investments, who will manage portfolio allocation in emerging markets globally except mainland China and Hong Kong.
David Peng, Head of Asia, Standard Life Investments, said, “The co-creation of the new Fund in Hong Kong signifies the first step in our strategic collaboration with Bosera International, one of the leading Chinese asset managers, which reinforces Standard Life Investments’ global business strategy and strong conviction in the China growth trajectory. Bosera International and Standard Life Investments have a proven record of picking successful investment opportunities from within the Chinese bond market and global EM debt respectively. Working together, with our combined international and local market insight, our clients are offered exposure to an expanded global universe of EM opportunities. This underpins our commitment to deliver innovative investment solutions designed to meet the evolving needs of investors.”
Kai Shao, Executive Vice President, Shenzhen headquarters of Bosera International, said, “Capitalizing on the collective strengths of Standard Life Investments’ global investment expertise and Bosera’s China fixed income capability, the partnership aims to strengthen both companies’ ability to deliver for investors. We are delighted to have this excellent opportunity to collaborate with Standard Life Investments on product development, investment management and knowledge exchange. The joint development of the new Fund marks the first initiative of our strategic relationship. This is great news for our clients as they are now provided a new investment choice to tap into the wider, exciting EM fixed income opportunities.”
Kai He, Head of Fixed Income, Bosera International, commented, “The Chinese bond markets, both onshore and offshore, have become a more and more important part of the world’s fixed income market, and have been delivering good returns over the past years. We believe it is worth giving China a more fair allocation in the EM space, by which investors will benefit from an enlarged opportunity set. This is what this Fund will bring about.”
Richard House, Head of Emerging Markets Fixed Income, Standard Life Investments, added, “The fundamentals of emerging markets are stronger than commonly believed. EM sovereign debt offers an attractive opportunity for both long term growth and income, and has produced better risk-adjusted return than developed markets bonds over the long term. Currently, EM sovereign debt offers one of the highest yields among liquid global fixed income asset classes. The Chinese bond market is the third largest in the world. The weight of China in current EM debt indexes does not reflect the global importance of the Chinese bond market and we believe it should form a more significant proportion of a global EM debt portfolio. ”
CC-BY-SA-2.0, Flickr. KKR celebra su 40 aniversario
KKR celebrates its forty year anniversary with the launch of a new employee volunteer program called “KKR 40 for 40.”
Henry Kravis and George Roberts, Co-Chairmen and Co-Chief Executive Officers of KKR, stated: “When we started this firm 40 years ago with three people and $120,000, our vision was to create a firm with a culture that rewarded collaboration and teamwork. Today that $120,000 is over $120 billion. We are more than 1,200 people strong and, with the support of our employees, we have been successful in creating that culture. We are proud of our evolution from a boutique U.S.-focused private equity firm to a global investment firm. Today we have multiple types of capital, allowing us to invest behind any idea, anywhere in the world. We have investors who trust us to find those ideas, and we are investing in themes that are solving some of the world’s most pressing challenges. And, most importantly, our work is supporting the goals of our many investors and their beneficiaries.”
KKR 40 for 40, or #KKR40for40, is a new employee benefit where KKR employees receive 40 hours of paid time to volunteer and give back to the organizations in their communities. Time is flexible and designed to allow employees to engage in meaningful ways for them and the nonprofits they care about.
“Because so much has been given to us over the years, we have decided that the best way to commemorate our entry into our fifth decade is to give back. Over the years, KKR employees have devoted thousands of hours of private time to non-profits and community causes. This work is just as important as the other kinds of work we do. During this year of our anniversary celebration, we hope our employees will take the time to give back to others in the same spirit of partnership, teamwork and excellence that has built this firm,” Kravis and Roberts said.
In honor of the firm’s anniversary, KKR also launched a letter, a video, and other related materials. In the letter, the firm notes that as of December 31, 2015, “we and our employees and other personnel have approximately $12.3 billion invested in or committed to our own funds and portfolio companies, and every single employee also owns our public equity. In short, we invest like owners… because we are owners.” Both Kravis and Roberts remain optimistic about the future.
You can read the letter and watch the video in the following link.
As we approach the end of the first-quarter earnings season, the state of health of the corporate sector is that much clearer: An earnings recession is in full swing. Earnings for the S&P 500 have seen their third consecutive quarter of declines, and will likely be down by approximately 6% year-over-year. While things look better if you adjust for the severe decline in the energy sector, it’s still nothing to write home about.
In previous CIO Perspectives, we have talked about how this lackluster earnings season could give way to better results in the second half of the year, now that oil and dollar headwinds have eased off. At the same time, I have urged caution against chasing the recent market rally because we still feel a more significant earnings breakout is necessary for the market to move above its current trading range.
There is now clarity on another front, too: We finally know who will contest this year’s U.S. presidential race.
Unfortunately, that may be the only thing that is clear in a campaign which has set new standards for unpredictability. Donald Trump’s candidacy was met with derision a year ago. Until his rivals threw in the towel last week, many were sure that we were headed for a contested Republican convention. Why should the unpredictability stop now? Trump could lose by a landslide or win by a landslide—your guess is as good as mine.
This Campaign Could Distract From Fundamentals The distraction of a Clinton-Trump matchup could subdue sentiment over the next few months, but it may also direct market attention away from the more important questions about what sort of fiscal policies we should expect from this political transition.
At the moment, our concern is that we will not get what would be helpful in supporting a fundamental earnings recovery—regardless of who wins the election.
An Unpopular President Will Lack a Real Mandate Hillary Clinton’s average “strongly unfavorable” rating in recent polls has been around 37%, while Trump’s has been a staggering 53%. No one else in recent history has managed to alienate more than 32% of the electorate at this stage of a presidential campaign.
This matters because we believe that when the president lacks a real mandate it reduces the likelihood of meaningful policy progress on a number of vital issues for the corporate sector: corporate tax reform, infrastructure spending, and more rational regulatory and trade policy.
On corporate taxation alone, the U.S. remains weighed down by a needlessly complex code, higher rates of taxation than those of similar economies, and a problem with tax repatriation that constrains potential investment in our economy. On trade, even the starting position isn’t pretty. Trump is the first anti-trade Republican nominee in decades, and Clinton has tacked a long way to the left to hold off Bernie Sanders for the Democratic candidacy.
Fiscal gridlock and trade uncertainty could leave the Federal Reserve still doing all the heavy lifting to keep our economic recovery on track.
Populist Policies Threaten Long-Term Damage Moreover, these are not just U.S. issues. The economic nationalism and populism evident in presidential campaign rhetoric are increasingly heard around the referendum on the U.K.’s membership in the European Union, for example, and in trade, currency, industrial and immigration policy debates worldwide.
Even as fundamentals improve, it could be these concerns that determine market sentiment for the rest of 2016.
Neuberger Berman’s CIO insight column by Joseph V. Amato
Barbara Freedman Wand, partner at Day Pitney has been selected as the recipient of the 2016 Boston Estate Planning Council Excellence Award. The Boston Estate Planning Council (BEPC) is a multi-disciplinary community of over 700 estate and wealth planning professionals. The award recognizes Freedman Wand’s significant contributions to the estate planning profession, and is the highest honor that BEPC can bestow upon a member of the estate planning community. The award will be presented at the BEPC Annual Gala on May 26, 2016 at the Fairmont Copley Plaza in Boston.
“I am honored to receive this award from my peers and proud to have been recognized for my professional accomplishments and service to the community,” said Freedman Wand.
Freedman Wand advises clients on sophisticated estate planning and the development and implementation of philanthropic goals. She also counsels private foundations and public charities on governance, compliance and planned giving programs. She is certified as an Accredited Estate Planner (AEP) by the National Association of Estate Planners & Councils, and she is a Fellow of the American College of Trust and Estate Counsel. Freedman Wand is a sought-after speaker, mentor, well-regarded author and she has served in numerous professional leadership positions. Freedman Wand also has substantial involvement in community betterment and philanthropic organizations. She is Chair of the Professional Advisors Committee at The Boston Foundation, which counsels the Foundation as it establishes, develops and maintains strong working relationships with the members of Greater Boston’s advisor community. Recently, she was elected to the seven-member Executive Board of Day Pitney.
Freedman Wand has been very active in the larger legal community, with a particular interest in fostering attorney development. She served as a member of the Massachusetts Women’s Bar Association’s Employment Issues Committee, which issued a significant report, “More Than Part-Time: The Effects of Reduced Hours Arrangements on the Retention, Recruitment and Success of Women Attorneys in Law Firms.” This report garnered national and international attention and has been used as a guide for improving attorney advancement.
Freedman Wand has also been selected as a Top Woman of Law by the Massachusetts Lawyers Weekly for her accomplishments in the legal field as a pioneer, trailblazer and role model.
MUFG Investor Services, the global asset servicing group of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, has gained all regulatory approvals for its acquisition of Capital Analytics, the private equity administration business of Neuberger Berman Group, and the acquisition has closed.
The deal is part of MUFG Investor Services’ strategy to become a global industry-leading fund administrator and brings its private equity and real estate assets under administration (AUA) to $145 billion, and total AUA to $384 billion.
Junichi Okamoto, Group Head of Integrated Trust Assets Business Group, Deputy President, Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking Corporation said: “The acquisition of Capital Analytics is another indication of our ambition and commitment to the fund administration industry and enhances our comprehensive offering in the alternative investment space. We look forward to leveraging the capabilities of Capital Analytics and providing a full market offering for both new and existing clients.”
John Sergides, Managing Director, Global Head, Business Development and Marketing, MUFG Investor Services, added: “The asset servicing and specifically fund administration landscape is changing significantly under the pressure of increased demands from regulators, investment managers and investors. This acquisition enhances our comprehensive private equity and real estate offering, for both general and limited partners, ensuring MUFG Investor Services is the ideal partner to support clients throughout the investment lifecycle. We will be making further announcements regarding our enhanced client proposition over the coming months.”
Anthony Tutrone, Global Head of Alternatives at Neuberger Berman, commented: “Our partnership with MUFG will continue to allow our clients to benefit from Capital Analytics’ best-in-class services that they and Neuberger Berman have come to rely upon.”
MUFG Investor Services has acquired all of Capital Analytics’ business and will provide a seamless transition for its employees and clients. Neuberger Berman funds will continue to receive administrative services from Capital Analytics; however, no funds or investment professionals will transfer as part ofthe acquisition.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrFoto cedida - Schroders. Schroders lanza el Total Return Commodity Fund
Schroders has announced the launch of Schroder Alternative Solutions Commodity Total Return. The new fund will offer commodities exposure with a flexible approach, allowing the team to take advantage of a wide range of opportunities, as well as limit downside risk.
The fund will invest in energy, agriculture and metals sectors worldwide and will adopt a highly flexible strategy which includes the ability to take short positions and the use of leverage.
The fund will be managed by Schroders’ commodities team, led by Geoff Blanning. Schroders has strengthened its investment resources in commodities in the past two years with the hiring of a Metals Fund Manager, a dedicated Commodity Quantitative Analyst and the inclusion of two highly experienced Global Energy Fund Managers from the broader investment group.
Geoff Blanning, Head of Commodities at Schroders said:
“Schroder Alternative Solutions Commodity Total Return will provide a flexible and low risk option to those investors who wish to re-establish their commodity market exposure following nearly 5 years of relentless price declines, as well as to those investors looking to participate in commodity markets for the first time. The fund will also appeal to those investors seeking liquid alternative investments run by an experienced and specialist investment team.“
John Troiano, Global Head of Institutional, said:
“Commodities as an asset class has had a difficult few years; however, there are encouraging signs that the fundamentals are now turning positive. The new fund is designed for investors who wish to participate in commodity markets to protect against the risk of inflation and invest in a potentially high return strategy, but who also wish to avoid the high downside risk inherent in a fully-invested approach.”
Schroders has a strong reputation as an active commodity manager, with a 10 year track record in actively managing a broad range of commodity funds for clients across the world.”
The fund is not yet registered for distribution in any jurisdictions. Subject to regulatory approval, Schroders plans to make it available to professional investors in Austria, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Greece, Norway, Spain, Sweden and the UK; for public distribution in Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Hong Kong, Macau and Singapore; and to qualified investors in Switzerland.
