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Jupiter AM Appoints Six New Analysts for its Sustainable Investment Teams

paper-3213924_1920 — Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. Jupiter AM nombra seis nuevos analistas para sus equipos de estrategias de inversión

Jupiter AM has announced in a press release the hiring of six new analysts within its sustainable investing strategies, doubling the size of the existing resources and “adding fresh investment expertise to key portfolios”.

The asset manager has highlighted that its sustainability suite of funds offers clients a range of differentiated investment options with a shared goal of generating attractive returns through long-term sustainable investing. Following a strategy refresh earlier this year, Abbie Llewellyn-Waters was appointed as Head of Sustainable Investing, working with Rhys Petheram, Head of the Environmental Solutions team.

The firm is now strengthening its offering with the appointment of new analysts. Specifically, Maiken Anderberg joins the Global Sustainable Equity team as Equity Analyst. Having previously interned with Jupiter’s Sustainable Investing team in 2018, she is returning to the company in a new permanent role, working closely with Abbie Llewellyn-Waters and analyst Freddie Woolfe with a dedicated focus on the Jupiter Global Sustainable Equities strategy

The Jupiter Global Sustainable Equities strategy was launched in 2018 to offer clients an alternative to mainstream global equities by combining financial returns with positive environmental and social returns – enabling clients to participate in the transition to a more sustainable world.

Joining Jupiter in a newly created role, Noelle Guo has been appointed Equity Analyst of Environmental Solutions. Supporting fund manager Jon Wallace and reporting into Petheram, she will work across the equity strand of Jupiter’s environmental solutions suite. Guo has eight years of equity research experience, joining from an Investment Analyst role at Pictet Asset Management before which she was at AB Bernstein as a Senior Research Associate.

Laura Conigliaro has been named Analyst of the Environmental Solutions team. Having joined Jupiter in 2019 as a member of Jupiter’s Governance and Sustainability team, she will now work directly with fixed income specialist Petheram with a particular focus on fixed income verification, also providing sustainability research into the desk’s environmental impact themes. Prior to joining Jupiter, Conigliaro has held roles at the Inter-American Development Bank and sustainability management consultancy Critical Resource.

Jupiter’s Environmental Solutions suite of funds boasts a 33-year track record and over 890 million pounds in AUM across the Jupiter Global Ecology Growth and Jupiter Global Ecology Diversified funds, and UK onshore vehicles. The strategy looks to invest in companies intentionally focused on providing solutions to sustainability challenges across key environmental themes.

In an internal move, Jenna Zegleman joins the teams as Investment Director. Having arrived at Jupiter in 2018 as a product specialist, she will provide client-facing support across the full range of portfolios in the Sustainable Investing suite.

In addition to these hires, Anisha Arora and James Kearns have joined Jupiter’s Governance and Sustainability team. An emerging markets economist and strategist with 10 years’ experience across sell side research and buy side asset management, Arora joins from Allianz Global Investors and has experience in applying ESG considerations to macroeconomic analysis, as well as to the sovereign debt investment process. Kearns joins Jupiter from BNP Paribas, where he worked initially in CSR within their Global Markets division before moving to become a Sustainable Finance Analyst.

“As we navigate through this global pandemic, the importance of confronting the climate crisis, bridging social inequality and ensuring a sustainable future is more important than ever. By investing in companies leading a sustainable transition across our Global Sustainable Equities and Environmental Solutions strategies we are able to offer our clients a range of attractive and truly innovative solutions that deliver positive outcomes for planet, people and profit”, Abbie Llewellyn-Waters, Head of Sustainable Investing, commented.

Meanwhile, Stephen Pearson, CIO, added: “We are pleased to make these appointments to the team as we continue to grow Jupiter’s sustainability suite, helping us continue to innovate and build on our long heritage of sustainable investing. We are delighted to be making these appointments at this important point in time, cementing support for these key strategies with the addition of specialist insight and investment expertise.”

Andrew Clifton: “ESG Risk Factors Are a Way of Assessing Value Traps in Value Investing”

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AndrewClifton_T — Andrew Clifton, especialista de cartera de la estrategia T. Rowe Price Funds SICAV Global Value Equity Fund. Andrew Clifton, especialista de cartera de la estrategia T. Rowe Price Funds SICAV Global Value Equity Fund

Over the past ten to fifteen years, value stocks have fallen out of favor with the markets, dramatically underperforming the market. However, according to Andrew Clifton, Portfolio Specialist for the T. Rowe Price Funds SICAV Global Value Equity Fund strategy, from the last quarter of last year, the stars began to align for a recovery in value stocks following the announcement of vaccine developments and the hope of reopening economies and growth, against a backdrop of extremely accommodative monetary and fiscal policies.

The valuation discounts with which stocks have been penalized have been as extreme as those seen almost 20 years ago, with the technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) bubble in the late 1990s.

Furthermore, the market environment has been positive for value stocks. The strong sell-off experienced in the first quarter of 2020 created opportunities for value managers. Value stocks have clearly rallied over the past 8 – 9 months, particularly since early November. But at T. Rowe Price they still believe that allocations to value equities will continue to generate good returns thanks to the available opportunities and the fact that their fundamentals remain positive.

Examining the potential of value stocks requires taking a long-term perspective. Much of the market only looks at what has happened in the last 10 to 15 years, but if you look over a longer period, value stocks have been generating positive returns for many decades.

According to T. Rowe Price, the last decade, in which value investing has performed poorly, has been the anomaly. So rather than thinking that the value approach is a temporary affair which only works occasionally, many investors need to realize that value investing has a solid foundation and fundamentals. Basically, if you can buy a company for less than its fundamental value, you are talking about a sound investment foundation.

From a tactical point of view, stocks have rallied, but the environment remains quite positive for value. are still trading at a material discount to their longer term 15-year average levels. Also, if you assess the market’s valuation dispersion, it has narrowed from last year’s extremes but is still above normal levels.

In terms of valuation, the expected price earnings multiple over the next 12 months for the MSCI World Value is 16 times, compared to 30 times for the MSCI World Growth. Therefore, there is still a large gap in valuations across all markets globally. Value continues to trade at a discount to growth, which provides a good opportunity for value investors.

Looking at fundamentals and momentum, economies are showing signs of rising inflation over the next 12 to 18 months. The debate now centers on whether it will remain high or whether it will be only transitory. Interest rates will most likely start to rise over the next 2 years. The financial sector is a key player in the value universe and banks are the main beneficiaries of an improvement in interest rates as long as economic fundamentals remain positive.

The Importance of Interest Rates

Technically, if interest rates start to rise, it will reduce the future value of the more distant cash flows which are used to value companies. Many of the growth companies are not generating profits now but are banking on their potential long-term earnings. If interest rates rise, so will discount rates, but it should lessen the attraction of companies that have a long duration and instead favor those companies that are currently generating good levels of return, and this criterion applies to many value companies.

If interest rates cannot fall any further, the debate centers on whether they can either remain at their current levels or increase, the financial sector could benefit in both cases. In the case of banks, at T. Rowe Price they still believe that many banks, particularly in the U.S., will continue to have attractive valuations, as the economy improves, they can generate more capital and growth, and their valuations are already attractive at current levels. To some extent, there is a free option on the possible increase in interest rates at some point. According to the expert, it is not something that will happen overnight, but at some point, it will come to that because interest rates cannot fall below current levels.

Types of Value Stocks

Looking at the higher quality stocks, those that are referred to as “free cash flow” companies because of their ability to generate cash flows, are companies with good balance sheets that are going through a period of greater uncertainty or a problem that has raised concerns in the market. This provides an opportunity for T. Rowe Price’s managers who are looking for these types of opportunities in sectors such as pharmaceuticals or healthcare, where there may be some concern among some companies about losing patent protection or the possibility that drugs in development may not generate the expected profits in the future. At T. Rowe Price they work with analysts to understand the reality of a market and if they perceive that there has been an overreaction, new positions would be added to the portfolio.

Other examples of stocks with high cash flow generation are the utilities, which may have a more defensive bias, but may face uncertainty regarding regulation or capital allocation, and the consumer staples sector, where there may be concern about new market entrants.

On the “Deep Value” side are companies with lower balance sheet quality and higher levels of risk which, even if they have been bought at a significant discount, still have the potential to fall in price if the situation worsens beyond expectations – sometimes these are not just operational risks, they can also be financial or strategic risks, which is why at T. Rowe Price they strive to understand them better than the rest of the market. However, should the situation develop positively, they also have greater upside potential. When the strategy favors a greater weighting in “Deep value” stocks over cash flow generating stocks, they are trading a higher level of risk for greater upside potential.

Positioning by Country and Sector

Since the global economies began their reopening process, the T. Rowe Price Funds SICAV Global Value Equity Fund strategy has had greater exposure to emerging markets, Japan, and Europe and a lower weighting to the United States. The main reason behind this positioning is the greater efficiency of the US market in reflecting the recovery of the economy in share prices.

At approximately two-thirds, the US has a dominant position in the MSCI World Value index. However, at T. Rowe Price they prefer to include some exposure to emerging markets, with around a 10% weighting. The lower weighting of the US against the index funds their position in emerging markets.

By sector, they have maintained an overexposure in the financial sector since the launch of the strategy. T. Rowe Price believes that the market structure is particularly positive for US banks, in stark contrast to their counterparts in Japan and Europe.

The IT sector generally has a growth bias, but this does not imply that T. Rowe Price’s strategy does not have exposure to some segments. For example, the semiconductor industry has undergone structural changes that have not been appreciated by the market, which has continued to value them as cyclical companies. This is something that the management company has perceived as an opportunity. They have recently reduced their portfolio exposure from 10 to 6 names, the main reason being that valuations are already at their peak, with little upside left.

The Inclusion of ESG Factors

Value investing tends to have a higher ESG risk by its very nature, because it is more likely to have a higher carbon footprint, for the production of real assets, or to have a higher volume of fixed assets than a growth company, in which patents and software development have a greater weight. This increases the importance of integrating ESG criteria into the investment process. To this end, T. Rowe Price has an integrated team of ESG analysts.

When it comes to managing downside potential, there is always a risk of falling into a “value trap”. This risk is increased when investing based on valuations and ESG risk factors are one way to assess these value traps. In some cases, the market may overly penalize a security, presenting opportunities to invest. One example is Volkswagen, which a few years ago was embroiled in an environmental and ethical scandal over its vehicle emissions, but over the years its business model has undergone a transformation, and T. Rowe Price believes it will be one of the winners in the electric vehicle market.

It’s Always the Right Time for Emerging Markets

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city-1209105_640 — Pixabay CC0 Public DomainEmergentes . Asia emergente

Two questions about investing in emerging markets (EM) are increasingly common: Does it make sense to time allocations to emerging market equities? And given the MSCI’s EM Index’s historic, near-doubling from its March 2020 low, is it time to get out?

Trying to time shifts is difficult in any market, but even more so in emerging markets. Market timing questions aside, there are several compelling reasons to maintain a consistent and material allocation to emerging market stocks, if not increase it.

Why Emerging Markets Should Comprise a Consistent Allocation Within a Portfolio

Developing economies represent about 85% of the global population and generate nearly half of global gross domestic product (GDP), thanks in large part to a rapidly expanding middle class. Not only are these economies contributing a significant portion of the world’s economic output, but their collective GDP has also proven more resilient through the pandemic and is expected to rebound more this year and next. According to the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook from January, advanced economies are estimated to have declined 4.9% in 2020 and are forecast to expand 4.3% this year and 3.1% in 2022. By contrast, emerging and developing economies collectively declined just 2.4% in 2020 and are seen growing 6.3% in 2021 and 5% next year.

The faster economic growth should be supportive for emerging market earnings, if past experience is any guide. Despite the rapidly increasing importance of emerging markets in a global context, the companies in emerging markets represent less than one quarter of global stock market capitalization. This will very likely grow over time.

While the long-term investment opportunity in EM is compelling, there are portfolio benefits as well. Since its inception in 1988 through December 31, 2020, the MSCI EM Index has delivered a 10.2% annualized total return, which is similar to the S&P 500 Index’s 11% annualized gain and considerably more attractive than the MSCI EAFE Index’s 5.4% rise. Importantly, emerging markets tend to behave differently than their developed-market counterparts as they both under- and outperform each other at different points in time, providing meaningful asset diversification over market cycles.

Indeed, because EM economies and capital markets are less mature, emerging markets still experience pronounced business cycles. This attribute alone could provide a material performance advantage over time, particularly for portfolios that are actively balanced across the growth/value spectrum throughout the cycle. This balance can enhance diversification while positioning the portfolio to take advantage of sector and style rotations.

Although the S&P 500 Index extended its outperformance in the latter half of the last decade, the MSCI EM Index’s 18.7% return in 2020 slightly beat the S&P 500 Index’s 18.4% gain. And over the first two months of 2021, the developing country benchmark more than doubled the return of the S&P 500, perhaps signaling a turn in the cycle. If so, that would reinforce the long-term performance of emerging market equities as well as the portfolio diversification benefit of consistent exposure to emerging markets.

Putting the Last Few Years into Context

Emerging market equities frequently oscillate between strongly positive and sharply negative performance. Putting the moves of the last several years into context illustrates this dynamic nature of EM investing and supports our view that it’s always the right time to be invested in EM.

Following the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, emerging markets rebounded sharply on the back of strong domestic consumption trends and bold stimulus programs, particularly in China. Expectations and valuations grew quickly, but were subsequently disappointed as the debt-fueled stimulus programs began to wear off. Most emerging markets were left with a debt overhang. By 2015, the U.S. Federal Reserve had tapered its asset purchases and then steadily lifted its key rate from late 2016 through mid-2019, spurring a strengthening U.S. dollar. The dollar headwind was too much for most emerging market earnings translated into greenbacks, despite consistent underlying EM growth trends. And while relative valuations favored developing country stocks in recent years, the U.S.–China trade dispute and questions about the future growth rate of China also weighed on broader developing country equities.

Entering 2020, economic conditions looked strong for many emerging markets but the spread of COVID-19 and to a lesser extent an oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia ultimately resulted in the first quarter being the worst quarter for global equities since the Great Financial Crisis. A flight to safety ensued as a general sense of fear overcame the markets, resulting in elevated capital flows out of EM and into the perceived safety of the U.S. dollar. The impact was especially painful for EM economies with elevated macro sensitivity to oil as well as those seen as too dependent on foreign investment.

Ultimately, though, with vaccine developments stoking the reopen trade and the U.S. election easing geopolitical tensions, emerging market equities finished an unprecedented 2020 on a high note. The MSCI EM Index returned just under 20% during the fourth quarter, its highest quarterly return in more than a decade.

The years following the Great Financial Crisis have shown once again that emerging markets are volatile. However, investors who maintained consistent exposure to EM during this period would have realized an attractive return on their EM allocation, with annualized performance of 10% for the MSCI EM Index from December 31, 2008, through December 31, 2020. Note that during this period the MSCI EM Index outperformed the S&P 500 50% of the time on a quarter-by-quarter basis, illustrating again that EM markets behave differently than their developed-country counterparts and reinforcing the argument that maintaining a consistent allocation to EM can enhance asset allocation diversification.

What Lies Ahead?

Many of the structural drivers that were beginning to emerge prior to COVID will come back into focus, helping to position emerging markets to potentially outperform in 2021. Among them, capital markets that continue to broaden and deepen, improving consumption trends fueled by rising incomes and an expanding middle class and new types of products and services that are continuing to penetrate many EM economies. Combined with massive global liquidity injections, highly accommodative interest rates, a weakening U.S. dollar, accelerating global growth and the deployment of COVID vaccines, emerging market stocks should have the wind at their back in 2021. Indeed, a recent global fund managers’ survey from Merrill Lynch showed that a record 62% of global money managers were overweight EM and two-thirds predicted that EM will be the top-performing asset this year. Yes, emerging markets are volatile. But it’s our strong view that because of the compelling long-term returns and portfolio diversification benefits, emerging market equities should remain a consistent and material portfolio allocation.

Charles Wilson, PhD is a portfolio manager at Thornburg Investment Management.

Founded in 1982, Thornburg Investment Management is a privately-owned global investment firm that offers a range of multi-strategy solutions for institutions and financial advisors around the world. A recognized leader in fixed income, equity, and alternatives investing, the firm oversees US$45 billion ($43.3 billion in assets under management and $1.8 billion in assets under advisement) as of 31 December 2020 across mutual funds, institutional accounts, separate accounts for high-net-worth investors, and UCITS funds for non-U.S. investors. Thornburg is headquartered in Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA, with additional offices in London, Hong Kong and Shanghai.

For more information, please visit www.thornburg.com

Important Information

The views expressed are subject to change and do not necessarily reflect the views of Thornburg Investment Management, Inc. This information should not be relied upon as a recommendation or investment advice and is not intended to predict the performance of any investment or market.

This is not a solicitation or offer for any product or service. Nor is it a complete analysis of every material fact concerning any market, industry, or investment. Data has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but Thornburg makes no representations as to the completeness or accuracy of such information and has no obligation to provide updates or changes. Thornburg does not accept any responsibility and cannot be held liable for any person’s use of or reliance on the information and opinions contained herein.

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Fabiana Fedeli is Appointed CIO of M&G’s Equities Division

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M&G has announced that Fabiana Fedeli will lead its 57 billion-pound (78.4 billion-dollar) Equities division from the newly created role of Chief Investment Officer. She will report to M&G’s CIO, Jack Daniels.

In a press release, the asset manager has highlighted that the appointment follows its commitment a year ago to revitalize its active equity investment capabilities, “which has focused on delivering more consistent investment performance and developing strategies to meet evolving customer and client needs”.

M&G has a rich heritage in active equities investment; from launching the UK’s first mutual fund in 1931 and continuing to develop innovative strategies since then, including the recent launch of a range of impact investment strategies to tackle global challenges such as climate change and healthcare.

With over 20 years of experience in the investment management industry, Fedeli joins from Robeco Asset Management where she was Global Head of Fundamental Equities; leading an international investment team managing a range of active equity strategies. She had direct portfolio management responsibility for three of those strategies and has extensive experience of integrating sustainability and impact into investment processes. Prior to Robeco, Fedeli held a number of roles both in portfolio management and equity analysis in London, New York and Tokyo.

“Equities will always have an essential role to play in an investor’s portfolio and we believe that active equity management will deliver greater value for clients over the long-term. Fabiana’s appointment demonstrates our commitment to this vital asset class, bringing a wealth of investment experience in both equities and sustainability. Fabiana will be working with M&G’s talented team of investors, to promote greater collaboration, idea-generation and innovation across the Equities division”, Daniels, CIO of M&G, said.

Meanwhile, Fedeli pointed out that M&G has “a long heritage in active equity management, a strong culture and clear investment values”. In her view, as the industry continues to evolve, it remains imperative for asset managers to anticipate and respond to their clients’ needs. “I look forward to working with the talented and experienced investment team to continue to develop M&G’s equities proposition”, she concluded.

Pictet Asset Management: An Unfavourable Mix of Slower Growth and Rising Inflation

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The global economy is expanding at a solid pace. Developed countries are responsible for much of that growth thanks to the rapid vaccine rollout and the lifting of lockdown measures.

But economic momentum is beginning to ease as central banks prepare themselves to scale back monetary stimulus in response to rising price pressures.

A less favourable mix of growth and inflation, tighter liquidity conditions and high valuations for riskier asset classes lead us to maintain our neutral stance on equities.

Within equities, we are underweight economically-sensitive sectors – including consumer discretionary stocks – while in fixed income we are underweight riskier bonds such as US high yield debt.

At the same time, we continue to hold overweight positions in defensive assets such as US Treasuries and Chinese local currency bonds.

Our business cycle analysis shows price pressures are becoming more visible in the US.

The country’s consumer price index excluding food and energy is increasing at a 3-month annualised pace of 8.2 per cent, the highest since 1982.

Core PCE, the US Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, also rose 3.4 per cent to hit its highest level in nearly 30 years.

However, we believe the bout of inflationary pressure is transitory, owing to supply distortions and a surge in demand for items that were most affected by the pandemic, such as used cars.

Stripping out the impact from these Covid-sensitive items and the base effect, our analysis shows inflation is still stable at around 1.6 per cent (1).

The Fed now appears set to hike interest rates as early as end-2022 after it unexpectedly upgraded this year’s growth and inflation projections in June.

Higher interest rates could come even sooner if wage inflation picks up from the current 3 per cent year-on-year pace – which will in turn pressure corporate profit margins.

In Europe, economic conditions are improving rapidly as the bloc’s vaccination programme and business re-openings gather pace.

Further improving the region’s prospects, euro zone countries will soon begin receiving funds from the EUR750 billion recovery fund, which is expected to boost growth by at least 0.2 percentage points both this year and next.

Economic momentum in emerging countries is levelling off as Chinese growth cools after a strong rebound. We think domestic demand will replace exports as the main contributor to economic growth, which will in turn boost retail sales and fixed asset investments.

Our liquidity indicators support our neutral stance on risky asset classes.

Liquidity conditions in the US and euro zone are the loosest in the world, thanks to continued monetary stimulus from central banks.

In contrast, China’s liquidity conditions are now tighter than before the pandemic as Beijing resumes its crack down on debt after a 2020 boom in lending among small and medium enterprises.

However, a further slowdown in the world’s second largest economy may prompt the People’s Bank of China to switch to easier monetary policy later this year. This will see the central bank intervene in the foreign exchange market to weaken the renminbi currency.

Our valuation models suggest equity valuations are at their most expensive levels since 2008. Tighter liquidity conditions and a further increase in real yields are likely to pressure global price-earnings multiples, which we expect to decline by up to 20 per cent in the next 12 months.

Our model suggests that corporate profits should grow globally around 35 per cent year-on-year this year. We think consensus earnings growth forecasts for the next two years — at around 10 per cent — are too optimistic as that would take EPS clearly above the pre-Covid trend, which is unlikely given that profit margins are already stretched.

Our technical indicators remain moderately positive for equities. Within fixed income, Chinese government debt – in which we are overweight – is the only asset class for which technical signals are positive.

Opinion written by Luca Paolini, Pictet Asset Management’s Chief Strategist.

Discover Pictet Asset Management’s macro and asset allocation views.

Notes:

(1) Covid-sensitive items: lodging away from home, used cars, car rentals, airline fare, televisions, toys, personal computers.

Information, opinions and estimates contained in this document reflect a judgment at the original date of publication and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those presented herein.

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This material is for distribution to professional investors only. However it is not intended for distribution to any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Information used in the preparation of this document is based upon sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of those sources. Any opinion, estimate or forecast may be changed at any time without prior warning. Investors should read the prospectus or offering memorandum before investing in any Pictet managed funds. Tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each investor and may be subject to change in the future. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed. You may not get back the amount originally invested.

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Vontobel Completes de Purchase of TwentyFour AM by Acquiring the Remaining 40%

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staub-zeno — Foto cedidaZeno Staub, CEO de Vontobel. Vontobel AM completa la compra de TwentyFour AM tras adquirir el 40% restante de la boutique

Vontobel Asset Management has completed the purchase of TwentyFour Asset Management after securing the remaining 40% of its capital. After acquiring a 60% stake in the fixed income boutique in 2015, Vontobel had intended to buy the remaining 40% in two tranches in 2021 and 2023. However, it has beaten its own deadlines and has already accomplished the operation.

In a press release, Vontobel AM has explained that it has taken “targeted steps” in recent years to develop a diversified range of products for its clients, and one of the main pillars was the acquisition of a majority stake in TwentyFour Asset Management LLP (TwentyFour), now a 24.2 billion swiss francs specialist fixed income boutique. Both firms have now agreed that Vontobel will have acquired the remaining 40% in one tranche as of 30 June 2021.

TwentyFour and Vontobel are thus underscoring the very positive development of the partnership. “By bringing the transaction forward it gives clients and investors clarity and ensures focus remains on delivering outstanding performance and client service for the long term”, the statement said.

After the transaction, TwentyFour will remain operationally independent and will continue to service its clients from offices in London and New York, as well as via Vontobel’s international network. Since the acquisition of the majority stake of 60% in 2015, all TwentyFour Partners have continued to play an active role in the company’s day-to-day operations. Besides, the asset manager has highlighted that the partners and portfolio management teams “remain committed to serving the interests of clients and ensuring the investment boutique’s ongoing success, hence will continue to serve as a driver of growth for Vontobel”.

Both parties have agreed not to disclose the purchase price but have revealed that the acquisition of this stake will be fully financed out of Vontobel’s own funds. Part of the transaction will be paid in the form of Vontobel shares, further underscoring the commitment of TwentyFour’s Partners.

“From the very beginning, we have been impressed by TwentyFour’s expertise and entrepreneurial culture, as well as its continuous growth. The acquisition of the remaining 40% stake is therefore the logical next step in our diversification and growth strategy. I look forward to our ongoing collaboration with our colleagues at TwentyFour, who are all supportive of this acquisition,” stated Zeno Staub, CEO of Vontobel.

Mark Holman, CEO of TwentyFour, claimed that after six years of working very closely together with Vontobel as a majority shareholder, the decision to move to full ownership was not a difficult one. “As a direct consequence of our partnership we have been able to spread our investment expertise to a far greater audience as we have moved from being a domestic player to genuinely global. Importantly though we have preserved the independence and entrepreneurial spirit of being a boutique, which I know is something that both our clients and staff really value and was at the core of our decision making for this transaction”, he added.

TwentyFour was founded in 2008 as a partnership, and has since grown to employ around 75 staff, responsible for providing a broad range of fixed income products to institutional investors. It is known for its disciplined investment philosophy and its proven investment process that generates sustained attractive risk-adjusted returns. The firm’s funds have been rated by Morningstar, which has assigned 99% of them (asset weighted) a four- or five-star rating. Furthermore, the quality of its products has been recognized by a variety of industry awards.

William Davies Will Become Global CIO of Columbia Threadneedle

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foto ligera — Foto cedidaWilliam Davies, CIO para EMEA y responsable global de renta variable, y próximo CIO global en enero de 2022.. William Davies asumirá el papel de CIO global de Columbia Threadneedle

Columbia Threadneedle Investments has put its Global Chief Investment Officer transition plan into action. The asset manager has announced the retirement of Colin Moore, who currently holds this position, after nearly 20 years at the firm. He will be replaced by William Davies, currently EMEA CIO and Global Head of Equities, in January 2022.

The firm has highlighted the “key role” that Moore has played in shaping its global investment capability, including its “well-established and highly successful investment process based on collaboration across asset classes, research intensity and independent oversight to foster continuous improvement.” Under his leadership, Columbia Threadneedle has generated consistently strong long-term investment performance for individual and institutional clients, and today has 103 four- and five-star Morningstar-rated funds globally.

“I would like to recognise and thank Colin for his numerous contributions, including establishing our global investment capability that has delivered an enviable track record of consistently strong investment performance for our clients. We have built an outstanding and experienced team of more than 450 investment professionals across our global footprint, and as we look forward, William is well positioned to assume the Global CIO role. He is both an exceptional investor and respected people leader with a deep understanding of our firm having joined us in 1993. I look forward to working with William and Colin to ensure a smooth transition”, said Ted Truscott, Chief Executive Officer of the firm.

Meanwhile, Moore claimed to be grateful for the opportunity he’s had to establish a broad and deep investment capability for their clients. “We have spent considerable time ensuring a thoughtful succession, and I am extremely pleased that William will assume the Global CIO role next year. It has been a privilege to lead our team of dedicated, experienced investors who will continue to focus on delivering consistent, competitive investment performance for our clients under William’s leadership”, he added.

Lastly, Davies commented that his focus is unchanged: “I will continue to work with my colleagues to consistently deliver the investment performance our clients expect. I am honoured to lead our talented global investment organisation and look forward to continuing our partnership with colleagues across the business to help our individual and institutional clients achieve their investment goals.”

Financial Flows, the Fountain of Youth for an Ailing Water Infrastructure

| For Beatriz Zúñiga | 0 Comentarios

reservoir-50681_1920 — Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. Flujos financieros: la fuente de la juventud para unas infraestructuras hidráulicas enfermas

Adequate water supply is essential for the human life as well for economies and businesses to thrive. Yet adequate water supply has become more of a luxury than a basic right due to a growing global water crisis where water supply is limited, quality issues prevail, and infrastructure is either old and breaking down or even non-existent in the case of the developing world.

Allianz Global Investors believes that the implications of inadequate water infrastructure and lack of access to fresh, high quality water supply has far reaching consequences impacting nearly every individual, economy, and business around the world. “Investments in new and upgraded water infrastructure are therefore necessary for high quality water supply access and effective wastewater treatment today and into the future. Such investments can support the development of resilient infrastructure which can more effectively meet both todays and future challenges tied to growing populations, urbanization, climate change and even cyber-attacks”, says the asset manager in a recent analysis.

Given the necessity for such investments, the US Senate recently approved the US Drinking Water and Wastewater Infrastructure Act of 2021, which authorizes USD 35 billion of water related investments to be allocated to improving wastewater, stormwater, drinking water and water recycling across the nation. It is one the few areas with bipartisan support in the US which highlights the urgent need for water investments.

Will funding run dry?

The makeover of US water infrastructure which still has to be passed by the House is just one part of the larger USD 2 trillion infrastructure bill. As unanimous as the consensus is about the urgency to make the world’s biggest economy’s drinking water, wastewater, and stormwater systems future-proof, is the remaining investment deficit as the USD 35 billion will only slightly move the needle. In 2019 alone, the accumulative investment gap on water infrastructure was USD 81 billion.¹Other calculations suggest annual needs of more than USD 100 billion each year for the next 20 years.²

Allianz GI points out that the consequences of funding shortfalls for water-reliant businesses and households are “enormous” as breakdowns and quality incidents will continue to plague local communities and disrupt future economic growth. “So, filling this financial void is vital not only to allow for the current US water infrastructure to function properly but also to make it resilient for future requirements“, they add.

The state of US water infrastructure

The United States’ public drinking water, wastewater, and stormwater systems resemble an outdated patchwork rug formed by pipes and lines from different centuries and with different levels of functionality. Because many pipes and pumps are nearly a one hundred years old and are operating at higher capacity than initially designed for, they are past the end of their usable life, leaking large amounts of water and oftentimes failing to meet today’s needs.

The asset manager highlights that municipalities are facing the question whether to upgrade, replace, or fortify these systems and how to make the water infrastructure future-proof to tackle severe weather events brought on by climate change. Additionally, they face the challenge to connect all US households to a regulated and safe water system. Currently, around a fifth of all households rely on septic tanks over public wastewater systems, and over two million lack properly connected drinking water and sanitation systems.³Around a quarter of Americans are very concerned about the quality of their community’s drinking water.⁴

The leaking lifeline

A modern and robust water infrastructure is vital to the country’s economic development as it secures not only the supply of water but also prevents the spread of illness and diseases, fosters economic growth, and ensures a higher living standard.

“The more water infrastructure leaks treated water, the more capital is lost negatively thus impacting both local residents and the local economy. It also affects the competitiveness of a city as a business located in an area with adequate water supply and infrastructure is more competitive and fosters long term growth”, they comment. According to ASCE’s 2021 Infrastructure Report Card⁵ there is a daily loss of approximately 6 billion gallons (approx. 22.7 million m³) of treated water due to water main breaks occurring at one-minute intervals, amounting to a yearly loss of 2.1 trillion gallons (approx. 7.9 trillion m³).

Within the next four years, almost three-quarters of all dams will be over 50 years old and gradually deteriorating. If not upgraded and rehabilitated, they will be vulnerably exposed to possible disaster scenarios leading to a loss of human lives and to a considerable damage of properties and existing infrastructure.
Following the estimations of the Association of State Dam Safety Officials⁶ there are more than 2,300 state regulated high-hazard-potential dams in poor or unsatisfactory condition and in need of remediation.
Urbanization combined with the age profile of wastewater treatment plans is increasingly resulting in system overloads and failures.
15% of wastewater treatment plants have reached/exceeded their designed capacity.

These are just a few examples illustrating the poor conditions of US water infrastructure and the dire need for infrastructure capital expenditure. The situation has far-reaching consequences and urgent action is needed to upgrade and modernize the world’s biggest economy’s drinking water, wastewater, and stormwater systems.

The investment gaps

For Allianz GI, while the infrastructure investment proposals currently making their way through the US Congress would be a step in the right direction, the US water infrastructure gap is still immense. Estimates indicate that over USD 2 trillion in water investments are needed over the next 20 years to close the funding gap and develop adequate water infrastructure across the nation. For example, the amount needed to replace the remaining lead pipes in the US is already over the projected USD 35 billion in the current proposal as estimates are as high as USD 45 billion to complete the replacements.

According to estimates of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) there are between 6.5 million and 10 million lead service lines in the US. On average, it costs about USD 4,700 to replace one single lead service line. Even if the EPA’s estimate is higher than needed in certain cases, the projected funds would quickly run dry.

Several angles for active investments

“Undoubtedly, the US Drinking Water and Wastewater Infrastructure Act of 2021 reflects a decisive first step to closing the existing funding gap. On the other hand, while it is ambitious it’s still short of meeting the most pressing water challenges as it cannot even address the remaining lead pipes which threaten the safety of US citizens. There are still substantial funding gaps that require capital expenditure to be addressed. That said, if this bill is passed later this summer, it will be a positive for water space and for water investments given the water equipment and projects that will be needed to make the upgrades”, explains the firm.

When considering the several aspects water infrastructure covers, we can clearly identify where active investments are needed and how they could pay off.

Replacement of lead pipes and service lines: The removal of all lead service lines in the United States not only ensures clean drinking water for every American but it is also contributing to improved public health by preventing severe chronic diseases like lead poisoning, ultimately easing the financial burden on health systems. Additionally, it is likely to result in an attractive investment opportunity in companies that provide piping systems. Investor-owned networks can also play a role here as they can make improvements independent of infrastructure stimulus, many times at lower costs than municipalities.
Leaking lines: To maintain and stop the loss of precious treated water companies have developed smart technologies and tools to detect leaks in water pipes.
Emerging contaminants and Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAs)⁷: Specialised companies that offer advanced water treatment technologies can detect and remove emerging contaminants from drinking water and help protect citizens from developing cancer after consuming poor water quality for years at a time.
Aging wastewater treatment plants: The replacement of wastewater treatment plants reaching the end of their lifespan opens up interesting investment opportunities for companies who are experts in wastewater management and designing wastewater treatment plants.

Lookout

While the USA and a big part of the world is focussing on how the US Drinking Water and Wastewater Infrastructure Act will contribute to revitalizing the aging US water infrastructure, positively impacting economic and job growth over the medium to long-term, there are still many under-researched and prominent risks. Just take cyber security, a topic gaining increasing importance for the protection of water infrastructure against cyber criminals. The cyber-attack on the water supply in Oldsmar, Florida and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency’s call to “install independent cyber-physical safety systems”⁸ is just one piece of evidence of the high relevance cyber security has for a future-proof water supply.

Investment implications

Global Water strategies help to address the very real water-infrastructure and water-quality related challenges in the US and the rest of the world by investing in pure play water companies delivering solutions to the most pressing challenges. “Investments may not only generate financial alpha given structural support of the theme, but also environmental and social alpha given the solutions-oriented approach. Such investments can help to upgrade and build resilient water infrastructure that is well prepared to face the challenges tied to climate change and ongoing population growth and urbanization”, says Allianz GI.

This approach allows investors the ability to participate in a compelling long-term growth opportunity and contribute to the solutions of modern water infrastructure, a lifeline to society and the economy.

1 https://infrastructurereportcard.org/cat-item/wastewater/

² http://www.uswateralliance.org/sites/uswateralliance.org/files/publications/VOW%20Economic%20Paper_0.pdf

3 https://www.asce.org/uploadedFiles/Issues_and_Advocacy/Infrastructure/Content_Pieces/the-economic-benefits-of-investing-in-water-infrastructurereport.

pdf

4 http://uswateralliance.org/sites/uswateralliance.org/files/2021%20Value%20of%20Water%20Survey%20Analysis%20Slides.pdf

5 https://infrastructurereportcard.org/

6 https://damsafety.org/media/statistics

7 https://www.epa.gov/pfas/basic-information-pfas

8 https://us-cert.cisa.gov/ncas/alerts/aa21-042a

Mind Tricks

| For IreneValiente | 0 Comentarios

Jay Powell’s press conferences leave the listener wondering whether one is being the victim of a sort of mind trick, or listening to a tongue twister. From “we are not even talking about talking about” (referring to tapering asset purchases), to labeling the latest FOMC as the “talking about talking about” meeting.

The Fed has a long tradition of resorting to obtuse language, dating back to its Jedi Grandmaster, Chairman Greenspan; who left a legacy of phrase-riddles to remember, such as: “I know you think you understand what you thought I said but I’m not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant”.

The new Fed chair, by contrast, has radically changed tactics; he speaks with crystal clarity, but elevating the discussion to the meta-meta level; a kind of quantum monetary world where, like Schrödinger’s cat, one thing and the opposite can happen at the same time; or happen not to happen; in Powell’s parlance.

This game of smoke and mirrors is for the sole purpose of keeping all options open. In the old days, when monetary policy enjoyed great room for maneuver, this calculated ambiguity allowed the Fed to surprise the market. But today, with interest rates at zero, the goal is to try not to unnecessarily unsettle financial markets.

In the past, the market was wary of the Fed, who was seen as the responsible adult in charge of “taking away the punch bowl”; ending the party before the economy could overheat. Nowadays, instead, the Fed is like a father trying to find ways not to upset a spoiled child, who always asks for more jelly beans and is notoriously famous for throwing tantrums.

In this respect, the recent policy shift does not represent a great change; something like threatening to take the goodies away if the school grades in a few years are not good enough. Bearing in mind that the average business cycle lasts less than 5 years, the kid has reacted with a “we’ll see” attitude.

However, the true recipient of the message has not been the market. The Fed also plays cat and mouse with other actors who influence (and are influenced by) its monetary policy: commercial banks transmitting it, other central banks whose decisions affect the dollar, and finally, the federal government, which sets the fiscal policy.

The relationship between the Fed Chairman and the US President is often a tug of war. In a recession, monetary and fiscal policy must work in tandem, but when the recovery begins, the central bank often becomes a constraint on the government. For example, Trump’s pro-cyclical fiscal stimulus provided the excuse for Janet Yellen to begin normalizing interest rates; while Robert Rubin and Alan Greenspan struck a bargain whereby the Fed maintained an accommodative policy, in exchange for the US Treasury reducing the fiscal deficit. This contributed to lengthening the economic cycle, and to run a fiscal surplus for the first (and last) time since 1969.

Exiting a crisis is tricky, and requires some coordination. After the financial crisis, for example, central banks had to continue to do all the heavy lifting, while governments retreated into austerity. That is why when the pandemic broke out, governments were urged to act with courage this time.

Initially, the Fed encouraged the government to do too much rather than too little. But as the saying goes, “be careful what you wish for”. The latest stimulus package passed by President Biden exceeded all expectations and, along with a more rapid reopening thanks to the success of the vaccination program, provided a major boost to the economy, stoking inflationary fears.

Fed members are, after all, human beings, with careers and reputations to protect; and continuing to deny the possibility of considering a policy normalization in these circumstances, was beginning to make them seem disconnected from reality, or worse still, accomplices of the government. Furthermore, if fiscal policy is finally taking the baton, it makes sense for monetary policy to start decoupling, in order to be ready to intervene when the next crisis hits.

The change in the “Fed dots” is a first step in that direction, although more symbolic than anything else. Fed members know how difficult it was to begin to normalize monetary policy after the financial crisis; and the gap that separates its long-term projections (or, rather, “aspirations”) from current interest rates, seems impossible to bridge.

The Fed would welcome slightly higher inflation, if it were accompanied by robust economic growth. However, it needs to calibrate carefully in order not to risk its independence. The biggest threat is that the precedent set by the pandemic will tempt politicians to use the fiscal bazooka when faced with a “normal” recession. After all, the old adage “never waste a good crisis” has taken on a different meaning, with the government giving away money almost indiscriminately to citizens and businesses.

In short, Jay Powell has managed to pivot from a corner, thereby initiating the process of disconnecting monetary policy from fiscal policy. And by stating that he will not let inflation get out of control, he has also brought long-term interest rates down (once the market deciphered the message). Not bad for a Jedi apprentice!

An article by Fernando de Frutos, Chief Investment Officer at Boreal Capital Management

JP Morgan AM Acquires Campbell Global, a Firm Focused in Forest Management and Timberland Investing

| For Beatriz Zúñiga | 0 Comentarios

forest-5597499_1920 — Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. JP Morgan AM compra Campbell Global, firma especializada en gestión e inversión en el sector forestal

In an effort to directly impact the transition to a low-carbon economy and provide ESG-minded investment opportunities related to climate, conservation and biodiversity, JP Morgan Asset Management has acquired forest management and timberland investing company Campbell Global, LLC.

Although the terms of the deal with Campbell Global’s parent company, BrightSphere Investment Group, were not disclosed, the asset manager has stated in a press release that the acquisition does not impact current investment strategies for Campbell Global clients. It also revealed that the transaction is expected to close in the third quarter.

Campbell Global is a recognized leader in global timberland investment and natural resource management. Based in Portland, Oregon, the firm has over three decades of experience, 5.3 billion dollars in assets under management and manages over 1.7 million acres worldwide with over 150 employees. JP Morgan AM has indicated that all employees will be retained and Campbell Global will remain headquartered in Portland.

The deal will make the asset manager “a significant benefactor for thriving forests around the world”, including in 15 U.S. states, New Zealand, Australia and Chile. Carbon sequestration in forests worldwide will play an important role in carbon markets, and the firm expects to become an active participant in carbon offset markets as they develop. Besides direct access to Forestry sector, the transaction will provide alignment UN Sustainable Development Goals and Principles of Responsible Investing.

“This acquisition expands our alternatives offering and demonstrates our desire to integrate sustainability into our business in a way that is meaningful. Investing in timberland, on behalf of institutional and high net wealth individuals, will allow us to apply our expertise in managing real assets to forests, which are a natural solution to many of the world’s climate, biodiversity and social challenges”, said George Gatch, CEO of JP Morgan AM

John Gilleland, CEO of Campbell Global, commented that they have always held that “there should be no tradeoff” between investing wisely and investing responsibly. “We made our first institutional investment in timberland 35 years ago, have since planted over 536 million trees, and emerged as a leader in sustainable forestry. We look forward to continuing these efforts with JP Morgan. Importantly, this transaction further positions Campbell Global to serve our existing world-class clients at the highest standard“, he added.

“Acquiring Campbell Global provides us with an opportunity to strengthen and diversify our ESG focus, including building a robust carbon sequestration platform,” said Anton Pil, Global Head of J.P. Morgan Global Alternatives. “Timber investing further enhances our asset class offerings in our alternatives business, ultimately passing along the unique benefits of forest management to our clients. Our knowledge of real estate and transport markets, in particular, is expected to provide opportunities to optimize the usage of timber and wood products more vertically.”

The investment offering will sit within JP Morgan’s Global Alternatives franchise, with 168 billion dollars in AUM, and will tap into the continued growth of private markets. JP Morgan is an expert in investing in real assets, with leadership positions in real estate, infrastructure, and transport and as well as private equity, private debt and hedge funds. In their opinion, Campbell Global adds to this portfolio, filling an asset class gap in an attractive market while also supporting sustainability goals.