Worldwide M&A Activity Totaled 4 Trillion Dollars During 2018

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Los acuerdos de fusiones y adquisiciones en 2018 superaron los cuatro billones de dólares
Pixabay CC0 Public DomainPhoto: MichaelGaida. Worldwide M&A Activity Totaled 4 Trillion Dollars During 2018

Worldwide deal activity totaled $4.0 trillion during 2018, an increase of 19% compared to 2017, and only the third year on record M&A has passed the $4 trillion milestone. Global growth has been a theme of the current wave of M&A, and cross-border deal activity totaled $1.6 trillion during the year, a 32% increase over 2017 and the strongest year for cross-border M&A since 2007. Dealmaking in Europe was $1.0 trillion, the highest total in 11 years.

The merger arbitrage universe had a number of positive developments recently that met the headwinds of spreads widening. Specifically:

  • Tribune Media (TRCO-NYSE), a media company that owns television broadcast stations as well as other media assets, agreed to be acquired by Nexstar Media Group for $46.50 cash per share, or about $7 billion. Previously, in May 2017, Tribune agreed to be acquired by Sinclair Broadcast. Tribune’s deal with Nexstar is expected to close in the third quarter of 2019, and shareholders will receive a “ticking fee” consideration of approximately $0.30 per month if the transaction has not closed by August 31, 2019.
  • Shire plc (SHPG-NASDAQ) cleared its final hurdle in December when shareholders of acquirer Takeda voted to approve Takeda’s $80 billion acquisition of the company. The transaction is closed in January 2019.
  • Express Scripts (ESRX-NASDAQ) received all remaining state regulatory approvals in December and the acquisition by Cigna was subsequently completed on December 21. Express Scripts shareholders received $48.75 cash and 0.2434 shares of Cigna common stock per share of Express Scripts, which valued the transaction at about $70 billion.

In addition some notable deals announced in December included:

  • Tesaro, Inc. (TSRO-NASDAQ), an oncology-focused biopharmaceutical company, agreed to be acquired by British drugmaker GlaxoSmithKline for $75 cash per share, or about $4.5 billion.
  • Belmond Ltd. (BEL-NYSE), an owner and operator of luxury hotels, tourist trains and restaurants, agreed to be acquired by luxury goods group LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton for $25 cash per share, or about $4 billion.
  • MINDBODY, Inc. (MB-NASDAQ), a cloud-based business management software and payments platform for the wellness services industry, agreed to be acquired by technology investment firm Vista Equity Partners for $36.50 cash per share, or about $2 billion.

We are excited about our prospects to generate returns uncorrelated to the market in 2019. Historically, periods of market volatility have been fertile ground for merger arbitrage investing, because we are able to purchase shares of target companies at cheaper prices.

Column by Gabelli Funds, written by Michael Gabelli


To access our proprietary value investment methodology, and dedicated merger arbitrage portfolio we offer the following UCITS Funds in each discipline:

GAMCO MERGER ARBITRAGE

GAMCO Merger Arbitrage UCITS Fund, launched in October 2011, is an open-end fund incorporated in Luxembourg and compliant with UCITS regulation. The team, dedicated strategy, and record dates back to 1985. The objective of the GAMCO Merger Arbitrage Fund is to achieve long-term capital growth by investing primarily in announced equity merger and acquisition transactions while maintaining a diversified portfolio. The Fund utilizes a highly specialized investment approach designed principally to profit from the successful completion of proposed mergers, takeovers, tender offers, leveraged buyouts and other types of corporate reorganizations. Analyzes and continuously monitors each pending transaction for potential risk, including: regulatory, terms, financing, and shareholder approval.

Merger investments are a highly liquid, non-market correlated, proven and consistent alternative to traditional fixed income and equity securities. Merger returns are dependent on deal spreads. Deal spreads are a function of time, deal risk premium, and interest rates. Returns are thus correlated to interest rate changes over the medium term and not the broader equity market. The prospect of rising rates would imply higher returns on mergers as spreads widen to compensate arbitrageurs. As bond markets decline (interest rates rise), merger returns should improve as capital allocation decisions adjust to the changes in the costs of capital.

Broad Market volatility can lead to widening of spreads in merger positions, coupled with our well-researched merger portfolios, offer the potential for enhanced IRRs through dynamic position sizing. Daily price volatility fluctuations coupled with less proprietary capital (the Volcker rule) in the U.S. have contributed to improving merger spreads and thus, overall returns. Thus our fund is well positioned as a cash substitute or fixed income alternative.

Our objectives are to compound and preserve wealth over time, while remaining non-correlated to the broad global markets. We created our first dedicated merger fund 32 years ago. Since then, our merger performance has grown client assets at an annualized rate of  approximately 10.7% gross and 7.6% net since 1985. Today, we manage assets on behalf of institutional and high net worth clients globally in a variety of fund structures and mandates.

Class I USD – LU0687944552
Class I EUR – LU0687944396
Class A USD – LU0687943745
Class A EUR – LU0687943661
Class R USD – LU1453360825
Class R EUR – LU1453361476

GAMCO ALL CAP VALUE

The GAMCO All Cap Value UCITS Fund launched in May, 2015 utilizes Gabelli’s its proprietary PMV with a Catalyst™ investment methodology, which has been in place since 1977. The Fund seeks absolute returns through event driven value investing. Our methodology centers around fundamental, research-driven, value based investing with a focus on asset values, cash flows and identifiable catalysts to maximize returns independent of market direction. The fund draws on the experience of its global portfolio team and 35+ value research analysts.

GAMCO is an active, bottom-up, value investor, and seeks to achieve real capital appreciation (relative to inflation) over the long term regardless of market cycles. Our value-oriented stock selection process is based on the fundamental investment principles first articulated in 1934 by Graham and Dodd, the founders of modern security analysis, and further augmented by Mario Gabelli in 1977 with his introduction of the concepts of Private Market Value (PMV) with a Catalyst™ into equity analysis. PMV with a Catalyst™ is our unique research methodology that focuses on individual stock selection by identifying firms selling below intrinsic value with a reasonable probability of realizing their PMV’s which we define as the price a strategic or financial acquirer would be willing to pay for the entire enterprise.  The fundamental valuation factors utilized to evaluate securities prior to inclusion/exclusion into the portfolio, our research driven approach views fundamental analysis as a three pronged approach:  free cash flow (earnings before, interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, minus the capital expenditures necessary to grow/maintain the business); earnings per share trends; and private market value (PMV), which encompasses on and off balance sheet assets and liabilities. Our team arrives at a PMV valuation by a rigorous assessment of fundamentals from publicly available information and judgement gained from meeting management, covering all size companies globally and our comprehensive, accumulated knowledge of a variety of sectors. We then identify businesses for the portfolio possessing the proper margin of safety and research variables from our deep research universe.

Class I USD – LU1216601648
Class I EUR – LU1216601564
Class A USD – LU1216600913
Class A EUR – LU1216600673
Class R USD – LU1453359900
Class R EUR – LU1453360155

Disclaimer:
The information and any opinions have been obtained from or are based on sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No responsibility can be accepted for any consequential loss arising from the use of this information. The information is expressed at its date and is issued only to and directed only at those individuals who are permitted to receive such information in accordance with the applicable statutes. In some countries the distribution of this publication may be restricted. It is your responsibility to find out what those restrictions are and observe them.
 
Some of the statements in this presentation may contain or be based on forward looking statements, forecasts, estimates, projections, targets, or prognosis (“forward looking statements”), which reflect the manager’s current view of future events, economic developments and financial performance. Such forward looking statements are typically indicated by the use of words which express an estimate, expectation, belief, target or forecast. Such forward looking statements are based on an assessment of historical economic data, on the experience and current plans of the investment manager and/or certain advisors of the manager, and on the indicated sources. These forward looking statements contain no representation or warranty of whatever kind that such future events will occur or that they will occur as described herein, or that such results will be achieved by the fund or the investments of the fund, as the occurrence of these events and the results of the fund are subject to various risks and uncertainties. The actual portfolio, and thus results, of the fund may differ substantially from those assumed in the forward looking statements. The manager and its affiliates will not undertake to update or review the forward looking statements contained in this presentation, whether as result of new information or any future event or otherwise.

Allfunds Hires Three Executives to Boost its International Expansion

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Allfunds nombra a tres altos ejecutivos
 para impulsar su expansión internacional y acelerar su desarrollo
Foto cedidaCourtesy photo. Allfunds Hires Three Executives to Boost its International Expansion

European funds platform Allfunds has appointed three senior executives in a moved aimed at boosting its international expansion and further accelerate its development.

Luigi Lubelli, formerly Group Chief Financial Officer and member of the Group Management Committee of Assicurazioni Generali will become Allfunds’ new Chief Financial Officer. Having developed his management career at Mapfre, Morgan Stanley, Citibank and Banco Exterior de España (now BBVA), Lubelli will form part of the Allfunds Executive Committee and will focus on steering Allfunds towards its new value creation objectives, as well as on monitoring the achievement of its business goals.

George Yaryurais a strategic marketer with over 20 years’ experience in developing high impact product strategies, driving transformation and business growth for global tech brands. He joins as the new Chief Product Officer and will also serve on the Allfunds Executive Committee.

Jorge Calviño, appointed Chief People Officer, brings with him a wealth of experience in human resources having developed his career in different people roles with leading international businesses such as Gillette, Amadeus, L’Oréal, Microsoft, Beiersdorf and, most recently, Alain Afflelou. He will also be part of the Allfunds Executive Committee.

Allfunds’ CEO Juan Alcaraz said:”Allfunds is in the process of transformation, of constant change and expansion – enhancing our offering to both our distribution clients and the fund management industry. To maintain our focus and momentum, we must seek out the best people from around the world to ensure we continue on our path to become the leading wealth-tech company in the investment industry. I am therefore delighted to welcome Luigi, George and Jorge into these all-important roles.”

Andrea Orcel Will Not Become Banco Santander ‘s CEO

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El consejo de Banco Santander acuerda no continuar con el nombramiento de Andrea Orcel como consejero delegado del Grupo
Foto cedida. Andrea Orcel Will Not Become Banco Santander 's CEO

Following a board meeting on January 15th, the Grupo Santander Board announced that Andrea Orcel’s appointment to the role of Group CEO will not proceed.

The Board of Santander made the decision to appoint Andrea Orcel in September 2018. In light of his seniority, along with regulatory, legal and contractual considerations, an early announcement of the appointment was necessary, subject to the usual conditions, including a six-month garden leave.

At that time, the Board of Santander had agreed the terms of his annual remuneration in his future role at Santander, which were in line with that of José Antonio Álvarez. It was not, however, possible, to determine in advance the final cost of the Group’s share of compensating Orcel for the remuneration awards, made to him by  his previous employer, that would have been foregone.  The Board therefore proceeded with the appointment on the basis of a considered estimate of the likely cost to Santander, based on advice, precedent and expectations of mitigation, due to the nature of the relationship between the two organizations and the different activities carried out by each institution.

In recent months, discussions have been taking place over the terms of Orcel’s departure from his previous employer. It has now become clear that the cost to Santander of compensating Orcel for the deferred awards he has earned over the past seven years, and other benefits previously awarded to him, would be a sum significantly above the Board’s original expectations at the time of the appointment.

The Board considers that for Santander to pay this amount to facilitate the hiring of one individual, even one of the calibre and background of Orcel, would be unacceptable for a retail and commercial bank such as Santander.  This is particularly so in light of Santander’s values and its responsibilities to its wider stakeholders and the societies in which it operates. As such, it has been decided by the Board that it would not be right to proceed with the appointment.

José Antonio Álvarez, who has remained in the role since the announcement and his anticipated transition in March to Chairman of Santander Spain, will continue to serve in this role without change.  He will also serve as Vice Chairman of the Board.

Rodrigo Echenique, who is due to retire from his current role as Chairman of Santander Spain in March, will remain until a successor is named.

Ana Botin, Executive Chairman of the Board said: “Santander is a retail and commercial bank with significant responsibilities to the societies in which it operates. In making this decision we have had to balance the respect we have for all of our stakeholders – the millions of people, customers and shareholders we serve – with the very significant cost of hiring one individual, even one as talented as Andrea, by compensating for the loss of a significant proportion of seven years of his past remuneration.  The Board and I are certain that this decision, although difficult to take, is the right one. “On a personal note, my colleagues and I were looking forward to working with Andrea. We all wish him every success in the future. We, as a Group, are fortunate to have José Antonio who has agreed to continue as CEO. I know we will work together as well as we have over the past four years, delivering profitable growth as more and more customers trust us to help them prosper.  We will present our strategic update to the market together later this year in what we both believe is an exciting opportunity ahead of Santander.”
 

John Clifton Bogle, Father of Indexing and Founder of The Vanguard Group, Has Died

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John Clifton Bogle, Father of Indexing and Founder of The Vanguard Group, Has Died
Wikimedia CommonsPhoto: Vanguard. John Clifton Bogle, Father of Indexing and Founder of The Vanguard Group, Has Died

John Clifton Bogle, founder of The Vanguard Group, died on January 16, 2018 in Bryn Mawr, Pennsylvania. He was 89.

Mr. Bogle had legendary status in the American investment community, largely because of two towering achievements: He introduced the first index mutual fund for investors and, in the face of skeptics, stood behind the concept until it gained widespread acceptance; and he drove down costs across the mutual fund industry by ceaselessly campaigning in the interests of investors. Vanguard, the company he founded to embody his philosophy, is now one of the largest investment management firms in the world.

“Jack Bogle made an impact on not only the entire investment industry, but more importantly, on the lives of countless individuals saving for their futures or their children’s futures,” said Vanguard CEO Tim Buckley. “He was a tremendously intelligent, driven, and talented visionary whose ideas completely changed the way we invest. We are honored to continue his legacy of giving every investor ‘a fair shake.’”          

Mr. Bogle, a resident of Bryn Mawr, PA, began his career in 1951 after graduating magna cum laude in economics from Princeton University. His senior thesis on mutual funds had caught the eye of fellow Princeton alumnus Walter L. Morgan, who had founded Wellington Fund, the nation’s oldest balanced fund, in 1929 and was one of the deans of the mutual fund industry. Mr. Morgan hired the ambitious 22-year-old for his Philadelphia-based investment management firm, Wellington Management Company.

Mr. Bogle worked in several departments before becoming assistant to the president in 1955, the first in a series of executive positions he would hold at Wellington: 1962, administrative vice president; 1965, executive vice president; and 1967, president. Mr. Bogle became the driving force behind Wellington’s growth into a mutual fund family after he persuaded Mr. Morgan, in the late 1950s, to start an equity fund that would complement Wellington Fund. Windsor Fund, a value-oriented equity fund, debuted in 1958.

In 1967, Mr. Bogle led the merger of Wellington Management Company with the Boston investment firm Thorndike, Doran, Paine & Lewis (TDPL). Seven years later, a management dispute with the principals of TDPL led Mr. Bogle to form Vanguard in September 1974 to handle the administrative functions of Wellington’s funds, while TDPL/Wellington Management would retain the investment management and distribution duties. The Vanguard Group of Investment Companies commenced operations on May 1, 1975.

To describe his new venture, Mr. Bogle coined the term “The Vanguard Experiment.” It was an experiment in which mutual funds would operate at cost and independently, with their own directors, officers, and staff—a radical change from the traditional mutual fund corporate structure, whereby an external management company ran a fund’s affairs on a for-profit basis.

“Our challenge at the time,” Mr. Bogle recalled a decade later, “was to build, out of the ashes of major corporate conflict, a new and better way of running a mutual fund complex. The Vanguard Experiment was designed to prove that mutual funds could operate independently, and do so in a manner that would directly benefit their shareholders.”

In 1976, Vanguard introduced the first index mutual fund—First Index Investment Trust—for individual investors. Ridiculed by others in the industry as “un-American” and “a sure path to mediocrity,” the fund collected a mere $11 million during its initial underwriting. Now known as Vanguard 500 Index Fund, it has grown to be one of the industry’s largest, with more than $441 billion in assets (the sister fund, Vanguard Institutional Index Fund, has $221.5 billion in assets). Today, index funds account for more than 70% of Vanguard’s $4.9 trillion in assets under management; they are offered by many other fund companies as well and they make up most exchange-traded funds (ETFs). For his pioneering of the index concept for individual investors, Mr. Bogle was often called the “father of indexing.”

Mr. Bogle and Vanguard again broke from industry tradition in 1977, when Vanguard ceased to market its funds through brokers and instead offered them directly to investors. The company eliminated sales charges and became a pure no-load mutual fund complex—a move that would save shareholders hundreds of millions of dollars in sales commissions. This was a theme for Mr. Bogle and his successors: Vanguard is known today for maintaining investment costs among the lowest in the industry.

A champion of the individual investor, Mr. Bogle is widely credited with helping to bring increased disclosure about mutual fund costs and performance to the public. His commitment to safeguarding investors’ interests often prompted him to speak out against practices that were common among his peers in other mutual fund organizations. “We are more than a mere industry,” he insisted in a 1987 speech before the National Investment Company Services Association. “We must hold ourselves to higher standards, standards of trust and fiduciary duty. Change we must—in our communications, our pricing structure, our product, and our promotional techniques.”

Mr. Bogle spoke frequently before industry professionals and the public. He liked to write his own speeches. He also responded personally to many of the letters written to him by Vanguard shareholders, and he wrote many reports, sometimes as long as 25 pages, to Vanguard employees—whom he called “crew members” in light of Vanguard’s nautical theme. (Mr. Bogle named the company after Admiral Horatio Nelson’s flagship at the Battle of the Nile in 1798; he thought the name “Vanguard” resonated with the themes of leadership and progress.)

In January 1996, Mr. Bogle passed the reins of Vanguard to his hand-picked successor, John J. Brennan, who joined the company in 1982 as Mr. Bogle’s assistant. The following month, Mr. Bogle underwent heart transplant surgery. A few months later, he was back in the office, writing and speaking about issues of importance to mutual fund investors.

In December 1999, he stepped down from the Vanguard board of directors and created the Bogle Financial Markets Resource Center, a Vanguard-supported venture. Mr. Bogle worked as the center’s president—analyzing issues affecting the financial markets, mutual funds, and investors through books, articles, and public speeches—until his death. Mr. Bogle wrote 12 books, selling over 1.1 million copies worldwide.

Industry accomplishments

Mr. Bogle was active in the investment industry. Early on, he served as chairman of the board of governors of the Investment Company Institute from 1969 to 1970. He also served as chairman of the Investment Companies Committee of the National Association of Securities Dealers Inc. (now FINRA) from 1972 to 1974. In 1997, he was appointed by then-SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt to serve on the Independence Standards Board.

Awards

In 2004, Time magazine named Mr. Bogle one of “the world’s 100 most powerful and influential people” and Institutional Investor magazine presented him with its Lifetime Achievement Award. In 2010, Forbes magazine described him as the person who “has done more good for investors than any other financier of the past century.” Fortune magazine designated him one of the investment industry’s four “Giants of the 20th Century” in 1999. In January 2012, some of the nation’s most respected financial leaders celebrated his career at the John C. Bogle Legacy Forum. Among his numerous other awards and honors were:

  •     Pennsylvania Society Gold Medal for Distinguished Achievement, 2016
  •     EY Entrepreneur Of The Year Lifetime Achievement Award, 2016
  •     FUSE Research Network Award for Lifetime Impact and Commitment to Investors and Investment Management Consultants Association Richard J. Davis Ethics Award, 2010.
  •     National Council on Economic Education Visionary Award, 2007.
  •     Center for Corporate Excellence Exemplary Leader Award, 2006.
  •     Yale School of Management, Legends of Leadership, 2003.
  •     Barron’s Investment Hall of Fame, 1999.
  •     Woodrow Wilson Award from Princeton University for “distinguished achievement in the nation’s service,” 1999.
  •     Fixed Income Analysts Society’ Hall of Fame, 1999.
  •     Award for Professional Excellence from the Association for Investment Management and Research, 1998.
  •     No-Load Mutual Fund Association’s first Outstanding Achievement Award, 1986.

Civic work

An avid booster of Philadelphia and the surrounding area, Mr. Bogle was active in civic affairs. “I loved Philadelphia, my adopted city that had been so good to me. I established my roots there, finding even more unimaginable diamonds,” he wrote in one of his books.

His civic work extended to organizations involved in education, leadership, and public affairs. He served as the first chairman of the board of trustees and chairman emeritus for the National Constitution Center. He was a member of the American Philosophical Society, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, The Conference Board’s Commission on Public Trust and Private Enterprise, and the investment committee of the Phi Beta Kappa Society. He served as a trustee of the American Indian College Fund, The American College, and Blair Academy.

Corporate board memberships

Mr. Bogle was sought after in the corporate community. He served as a director of Instinet Corporation, Chris-Craft Industries, Mead Corporation, The General Accident Group of Insurance Companies, Meritor Financial Group, Inc., and Bryn Mawr Hospital. He was a trustee for the American Indian College Fund and The American College.

Academic recognition

The academic community recognized Mr. Bogle’s for his accomplishments. He received honorary doctorate degrees from Villanova University, Trinity College, Georgetown University, Princeton University, the University of Delaware, University of Rochester, New School University, Susquehanna University, Eastern University, Widener University, Albright College, The Pennsylvania State University, Drexel University, and Immaculata University.

Author and speaker

Mr. Bogle was a best-selling author, beginning with Bogle on Mutual Funds: New Perspectives for the Intelligent Investor in 1993. He followed that with Common Sense on Mutual Funds: New Imperatives for the Intelligent Investor (1999); John Bogle on Investing: The First 50 Years (2000); Character Counts: The Creation and Building of The Vanguard Group (2002); Battle for the Soul of Capitalism (2005); The Little Book of Common Sense Investing (2007); Enough. True Measures of Money, Business, and Life (2008); Common Sense on Mutual Funds: Fully Updated 10th Anniversary Edition (2009); Don’t Count on It! Reflections on Investment Illusions, Capitalism, “Mutual” Funds, Indexing, Entrepreneurship, Idealism, and Heroes (2011); The Clash of the Cultures: Investment vs. Speculation (2012); The Little Book of Common Sense Investing: 10th Anniversary Edition (2017), and, Stay the Course: The Story of Vanguard and the Index Revolution (2018).

Mr. Bogle also wrote numerous articles and commentaries for trade and business publications.

Personal information

Mr. Bogle was born May 8, 1929, in Montclair, New Jersey. He worked his way through Blair Academy and Princeton University as a waiter and also managed Princeton’s athletic ticket office.         

A tall, athletic man who sported a crew cut for most of his life, Mr. Bogle played squash, tennis, and golf, and also enjoyed sailing. He was often described as a “fierce competitor” on the court and course, a demeanor he also maintained on the job. Reading was among his pleasures, as was The New York Times crossword puzzle, which he often completed in less than 20 minutes.

He married Eve Sherrerd in 1956. They had six children: daughters Barbara Bogle Renninger, Jean Bogle, Nancy Bogle St. John, and Sandra Bogle Marucci, and sons John C. Bogle Jr. and Andrew Armstrong Bogle. They had 12 grandchildren and six great-grandchildren.

 

43% of Worldwide AUM Are Managed by 20 Companies

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El 43% del total de activos bajo gestión en el mundo está en manos de 20 gestoras
Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. 43% of Worldwide AUM Are Managed by 20 Companies

Total assets under management (AuM) of the world’s largest 500 managers grew to $93.8 trillion in 2017, representing a rise of 15.6% on the previous year, according to the latest Global 500 research from leading global advisory, broking and solutions company Willis Towers Watson’s Thinking Ahead Institute. In addition, the concentration of assets managed by the 20 largest managers reached the highest level since inception (in 2000) and now account for over 43% of the top 500 managers’ total AuM.

The research shows North America-based managers represent the majority of assets (58.1%), though their share fell slightly in 2017, the first fall since 2008. European managers represent 31.8% of assets managed (the U.K. being 7.4%), Japan 4.8% and the rest of the world 5.2%. Assets in each region grew in 2017. While the majority of assets (77.6%) are managed actively, the share of passive assets has grown from 19.5% to 22.4% in the last five years. In 2017 passive assets grew 25%.

BlackRock remains the largest asset manager in the rankings, a position it has held since 2008; Vanguard and State Street complete the top three for the fourth successive year.

“Once again, total assets have increased; the rate of growth in 2017 is the biggest since 2009,” said Bob Collie, head of Research at the Thinking Ahead Institute. “The names at the top of the ranking are familiar ones. There’s greater concentration in the biggest names. On the surface, the numbers might appear to tell a story of steady growth and stability. But when you look at broader developments within and beyond the industry, there are signs the industry is facing significant change.”

In an indication of future areas of focus, more than four out of five (81%) managers surveyed reported an increase in client interest in sustainable investing, including voting, while nearly three-quarters (74%) increased resources deployed to deal with technology and big data. Nearly two-thirds of firms surveyed had increased the number of product offerings during 2017, while 60% reported an increase in the level of regulatory oversight according to the research.

“It’s not just a focus on technology. There is a confluence of global trends — including demographic, economic, environmental and social pressures — that are combining to create a period of potentially massive disruption for the industry. The implications go well beyond the investment process. These changes affect business models, people models, operating models and distribution models. They will be felt in every corner of the organization.”

“Firms will choose to respond to these challenges in different ways. Successfully responding to these new industry realities may prove to be as much a test of character and culture as it is a test of traditional business and investment skills,” added Collie.

Trade, Treasuries and Trump: Three Keys for Growth in 2019

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Trade, Treasuries y Trump: tres claves para el crecimiento en 2019
Pixabay CC0 Public DomainNietjuh . Trade, Treasuries and Trump: Three Keys for Growth in 2019

For most of the last decade we have lived in what has often been termed a “Goldilocks economy.” Much as the fair-haired, home-invading subject of the children’s story found one bowl of porridge to be “just right,” economic growth and inflation have been neither too hot nor too cold1. During this time, coordinated action by the world’s central banks kept interest rates near zero and the prices of nearly all asset classes high. The US economy is in its 113th month of expansion, seven months short of the record. Notwithstanding a recent stumble, US equities are 119 months into the longest-ever bull market, led mostly by growth stocks riding a global wave of technological innovation and expanding prosperity. Except for growth scares in 2011, 2015 and perhaps one day in November 2016, market volatility has been low and its upward trajectory largely uninterrupted. There are signs, however, that the narrative may be changing as a turn in the aging business cycle may be accompanied by a wholesale shift in socio-political regimes from globalism to nationalism and capital to labor. Populism is on the march around the world with long-term effects that are unclear, but unlikely to be positive for equities. As in the story, the bears will eventually return home; their timing and mood is uncertain, as is how much of this eventuality the market has already discounted. Against this backdrop we believe bottom-up, fundamental stock selection of the type we have practiced for over forty years remains more important than ever.

The Political Economy of 2018

The most salient issue for the market is growth – with corporate tax cuts behind us and little slack left in the economy, growth will almost certainly slow from the 3-4% posted in 2018. That does not necessarily imply a recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction, is on the immediate horizon. How far above or below the approximately 2% real growth that population and productivity gains suggest is “just right” depends on many factors including what we have described variously as Three T’s: Trade, Treasuries and Trump.

Trade

President Trump made “fair trade” the centerpiece of his election campaign and he has thus far made good on his promise to challenge the prevailing post-war “free trade” orthodoxy (however illusory that reality might have been). Hope for a trade deal with China rose when the administration renegotiated NAFTA, now called USMCA (the initials of its US, Mexican and Canadian signatories). The market understandably zags with each hint that a China deal could emerge since China accounts for over half of the US’ $600 billion trade deficit and remains our third largest export destination. The situation takes on even greater significance due to China’s role as an engine for global growth. China is slowing as it faces domestic structural imbalances. Pressure from President Trump exacerbates those issues, but a deal is unlikely to solve them or heal the lasting damage done to the Sino-American symbiosis.
 
Treasuries

Also critical to the outlook for the economy and stocks are the level and trajectory of interest rates. Since the Federal Reserve began its taper four years ago in October 2014, the ten-year Treasury rate breached 3% this year for the first time since 2013, standing now just below that level. Higher interest rates have real world impacts – they make the purchases of new homes, cars, capital equipment, companies and the US deficit more expensive to finance. All else equal, higher rates reduce the value of risk assets by making the alternative home for capital, “riskless” Treasuries, more attractive. The term structure of interest rates (aka the yield curve) has also been ascribed predictive powers. Inverted curves – situations in which the ten-year yield exceeds the two-year yield – have predicted all nine recessions since 1955, albeit with two false positives and a wide variation in timing. The virtually flat yield curve today thus worries some observers.

Trump

While there has always been a healthy interplay between markets and political figures, President Trump’s twitter habit, unpredictability and the potential legal challenges to his presidency have made him more “center row orchestra” than past leaders. Among the concerns for the next two years is how a Democratic Congress with no interest in helping Trump get re-elected approves the USMCA, a debt ceiling extension and further fiscal stimulus, especially when the ask may be a tweak to the tax cuts. Interestingly, the War on Tech (i.e. privacy and anti-trust investigations of Facebook, Google, Amazon and others) seems to be one of the few issues with bipartisan support and is worth watching in 2019. Geopolitical disruption is not unique to the US: if and how the UK exits the European Union, the precarious positions of leaders in Germany, France and Italy, not to mention the typical entanglements in the Middle East, also remain a focus.

Skeptics Could Be Wrong If Things Go Right

Not all news – whether real or fake – is bad of course. In fact, many economic indicators are quite strong, with 3.7% unemployment the lowest since the tumult of 1969, record consumer net worth ($109 trillion) and interest rates and inflation that, viewed over a longer time frame, remain quite tame. The Federal Reserve and the President are probably not past the point of no return and still have not lost policy control: President Trump, who possesses a keen sensitivity to the stock market, could resolve the trade war and the Fed could blink on 2019 rate hikes. That would leave reason to believe the expansion could continue and that the current state of the market is the pause, like the previous ones in this cycle, that refreshes. 

Mr. Market
Causation, Correlation or Neither

The S&P 500 is down 6% and the small capitalization Russell 2000 index is down 13% to date, with each off 16% and 24% from the peaks in those indices in September and August, respectively. For most of the year, the performance of the S&P 500, dominated by six technology stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Apple and Microsoft – the “FANGMA”) that comprise 15% of its weight, masked the more significant declines posted by a broader group of stocks. Approximately two-thirds of stocks in the S&P 500 are negative this year with one-third down more than 20%. Even the vaunted FANGMA is now 25% off its highs, adding credence to the notion that the global growth trend may be broken. “Buy the Dip” has morphed to “Sell the Rip.”

Market declines of this magnitude could be expected to impart a negative wealth effect, i.e. consumers with slimmer brokerage statements feeling less inclined to make discretionary purchases, which could exacerbate an economic slowdown, but market declines are more often simply a precursor, not a trigger, of recessions. Since 1929, there have been sixteen bear markets with most, though not all, pacing a recession by approximately one year (the recession-less crash of October 1987 a notable exception). It is also worth stating that the market does not equal the economy. Just as some have suggested Wall St. prospered without much of Main St. over the last decade, the reverse could conceivably prove true.

Valuation Today vs. Five Years Out

In any case, stocks are already pricing a slowdown and/or higher rates. A flat year-to-date equity market compared with estimated EPS gains of 22% in 2018 and 8% in 2019, implies a contraction in forward multiples from 18x at the end of 2017 to roughly 15x today. That is at the low end of historical multiples during periods with inflation in the 0-3% area. This suggests that the market as a whole does not appear expensive. We do not buy the “market,” but we are finding a lot of bargains in individual stocks recently.

Deals, Deals & More Deals

Deal activity slowed through the year as political uncertainty weighed, but the underpinnings for mergers (low interest rates and a lack of organic growth opportunities) remain and the potentially waning days of the present administration may encourage activity sooner rather than later. Spin-offs rebounded in 2018 (twenty-six by our count), including two by Honeywell and one pre-takeover spin-off by KLX. Notable upcoming announced separations include Madison Square Garden’s spin of its sports teams, 21st Century Fox’s pre-deal spin of its news and broadcast assets, and three-way spins by DowDuPont and United Technologies. As discussed in the past, we like spin-offs because they not only tend to surface value but often serve as the source of new ideas.

Conclusion

Last year, we expressed surprise that a strong market was overlooking what seemed to be mounting risks late in the economic cycle. As many of those challenges – trade disputes, higher interest rates, political discord – play out, we wonder if the market is now ignoring what continue to be decent corporate fundamentals. Ultimately our job is to do the work on the microeconomic elements of each company and industry we cover, examine how the changing macroeconomic environment impacts those variables and make buy and sell decisions that balance the resulting opportunities and risks. Since the bears inevitably come home in each cycle, we have always erred on the side of capital preservation and that will especially be the case going forward. Children’s stories don’t always have happy endings but they serve as cautionary examples that we have heeded well.

““Goldilocks and the Three Bears” was an old tale first recorded by poet Robert Southey in 1837. Market commentator use of the analogy dates to at least the late-1990s expansion.

 

To access our proprietary value investment methodology, and dedicated merger arbitrage portfolio we offer the following UCITS Funds in each discipline:

GAMCO MERGER ARBITRAGE

GAMCO Merger Arbitrage UCITS Fund, launched in October 2011, is an open-end fund incorporated in Luxembourg and compliant with UCITS regulation. The team, dedicated strategy, and record dates back to 1985. The objective of the GAMCO Merger Arbitrage Fund is to achieve long-term capital growth by investing primarily in announced equity merger and acquisition transactions while maintaining a diversified portfolio. The Fund utilizes a highly specialized investment approach designed principally to profit from the successful completion of proposed mergers, takeovers, tender offers, leveraged buyouts and other types of corporate reorganizations. Analyzes and continuously monitors each pending transaction for potential risk, including: regulatory, terms, financing, and shareholder approval.

Merger investments are a highly liquid, non-market correlated, proven and consistent alternative to traditional fixed income and equity securities. Merger returns are dependent on deal spreads. Deal spreads are a function of time, deal risk premium, and interest rates. Returns are thus correlated to interest rate changes over the medium term and not the broader equity market. The prospect of rising rates would imply higher returns on mergers as spreads widen to compensate arbitrageurs. As bond markets decline (interest rates rise), merger returns should improve as capital allocation decisions adjust to the changes in the costs of capital.

Broad Market volatility can lead to widening of spreads in merger positions, coupled with our well-researched merger portfolios, offer the potential for enhanced IRRs through dynamic position sizing. Daily price volatility fluctuations coupled with less proprietary capital (the Volcker rule) in the U.S. have contributed to improving merger spreads and thus, overall returns. Thus our fund is well positioned as a cash substitute or fixed income alternative.

Our objectives are to compound and preserve wealth over time, while remaining non-correlated to the broad global markets. We created our first dedicated merger fund 32 years ago. Since then, our merger performance has grown client assets at an annualized rate of  approximately 10.7% gross and 7.6% net since 1985. Today, we manage assets on behalf of institutional and high net worth clients globally in a variety of fund structures and mandates.

Class I USD – LU0687944552
Class I EUR – LU0687944396
Class A USD – LU0687943745
Class A EUR – LU0687943661
Class R USD – LU1453360825
Class R EUR – LU1453361476

GAMCO ALL CAP VALUE

The GAMCO All Cap Value UCITS Fund launched in May, 2015 utilizes Gabelli’s its proprietary PMV with a Catalyst™ investment methodology, which has been in place since 1977. The Fund seeks absolute returns through event driven value investing. Our methodology centers around fundamental, research-driven, value based investing with a focus on asset values, cash flows and identifiable catalysts to maximize returns independent of market direction. The fund draws on the experience of its global portfolio team and 35+ value research analysts.

GAMCO is an active, bottom-up, value investor, and seeks to achieve real capital appreciation (relative to inflation) over the long term regardless of market cycles. Our value-oriented stock selection process is based on the fundamental investment principles first articulated in 1934 by Graham and Dodd, the founders of modern security analysis, and further augmented by Mario Gabelli in 1977 with his introduction of the concepts of Private Market Value (PMV) with a Catalyst™ into equity analysis. PMV with a Catalyst™ is our unique research methodology that focuses on individual stock selection by identifying firms selling below intrinsic value with a reasonable probability of realizing their PMV’s which we define as the price a strategic or financial acquirer would be willing to pay for the entire enterprise.  The fundamental valuation factors utilized to evaluate securities prior to inclusion/exclusion into the portfolio, our research driven approach views fundamental analysis as a three pronged approach:  free cash flow (earnings before, interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, minus the capital expenditures necessary to grow/maintain the business); earnings per share trends; and private market value (PMV), which encompasses on and off balance sheet assets and liabilities. Our team arrives at a PMV valuation by a rigorous assessment of fundamentals from publicly available information and judgement gained from meeting management, covering all size companies globally and our comprehensive, accumulated knowledge of a variety of sectors. We then identify businesses for the portfolio possessing the proper margin of safety and research variables from our deep research universe.

Class I USD – LU1216601648
Class I EUR – LU1216601564
Class A USD – LU1216600913
Class A EUR – LU1216600673
Class R USD – LU1453359900
Class R EUR – LU1453360155

Disclaimer:
The information and any opinions have been obtained from or are based on sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No responsibility can be accepted for any consequential loss arising from the use of this information. The information is expressed at its date and is issued only to and directed only at those individuals who are permitted to receive such information in accordance with the applicable statutes. In some countries the distribution of this publication may be restricted. It is your responsibility to find out what those restrictions are and observe them.
 
Some of the statements in this presentation may contain or be based on forward looking statements, forecasts, estimates, projections, targets, or prognosis (“forward looking statements”), which reflect the manager’s current view of future events, economic developments and financial performance. Such forward looking statements are typically indicated by the use of words which express an estimate, expectation, belief, target or forecast. Such forward looking statements are based on an assessment of historical economic data, on the experience and current plans of the investment manager and/or certain advisors of the manager, and on the indicated sources. These forward looking statements contain no representation or warranty of whatever kind that such future events will occur or that they will occur as described herein, or that such results will be achieved by the fund or the investments of the fund, as the occurrence of these events and the results of the fund are subject to various risks and uncertainties. The actual portfolio, and thus results, of the fund may differ substantially from those assumed in the forward looking statements. The manager and its affiliates will not undertake to update or review the forward looking statements contained in this presentation, whether as result of new information or any future event or otherwise.
 

 

Lázaro de Lázaro to Lead Santander AM’s European Hub, While Luis García Izquierdo Will be in Charge of LatAm

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Lázaro de Lázaro liderará el nuevo hub de Santander AM para Europa y Luis García Izquierdo el de Latinoamérica
Foto cedidaLázaro de Lázaro. Lázaro de Lázaro to Lead Santander AM's European Hub, While Luis García Izquierdo Will be in Charge of LatAm

Santander Asset Management is changing its organizational structure. As confirmed by Funds Society, the firm has created two hubs, with the aim of strengthening coordination efforts as well as relationships with banks and local customers.

In charge of the European hub will be Lázaro de Lázaro, and Luis García Izquierdo is to lead the Latin American one.

Lázaro de Lázaro was until now responsible for the Santander AM in Spain position that will go to Miguel Ángel Sánchez Lozano, until now responsible for Structured Products of Santander Spain.

Looking for a new CIO

Gonzalo Milans del Bosch, until now the global CIO, is leaving the firm for personal reasons and his position will be temporarily co-filled by Jacobo Ortega Vich, until now CIO of Santander Spain, and Eduardo Castro, CIO in Brazil, until a full time replacement is appointed.

All these changes come within Mariano Belinky‘s first year as head of the company.

Olivia Watson and Jess Willliams Bolster Columbia Threadneedle’s RI team

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Columbia Threadneedle refuerza su equipo de inversión responsable con la incorporación de Olivia Watson y de Jess Willliams
Foto cedidaOlivia Watson and Jess Williams. Courtesy photo. Olivia Watson and Jess Willliams Bolster Columbia Threadneedle's RI team

Columbia Threadneedle Investments appoints Olivia Watson and Jess Williams for its Responsible Investment team. With the appointments, they have 12 investment professionals in the unit. They will report to Chris Anker, lead analyst for the EMEA region.

Iain Richards, global head of Responsible Investment said: “Investors are increasingly seeking to capture the value of effective ESG integration and understand the wider consequences of their investment choices. Olivia and Jess both join with strong experience of sustainable finance and knowledge of social and ethical issues, and will help us to continue to meet our clients’ needs through providing valuable support to our portfolio managers.”

Olivia Watson, who has been hired as senior analyst, will be in charge of responsible investment research and engagement on environmental, social and governance issues, as part of the company’s stewardship activities in EMEA.

Jess Williams, hired as portfolio analyst, will be responsible for research and analysis on client portfolios from a responsible investment point of view. She previously worked at S&P Global Ratings, where she developed sustainable finance products. She also worked on the Global Innovation Lab for Climate Finance at the Climate Policy Initiative in Venice.

Watson joins Columbia Threadneedle from the Principles for Responsible Investment, where she was responsible for overseeing the development of collaborative investor initiatives and investor engagement on environmental and social issues. Prior to that, she worked in corporate sustainability consultancy and in corporate governance research.

Columbia Threadneedle’s responsible investment team supports portfolio manager through oversight of stewardship relating to environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues in their portfolios, as well as portfolio construction through the identification of investment opportunities aligned to eight thematic outcome areas.

 

 

Merger Arbitrage Update for November 2018

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Actualización sobre arbitraje de M&A para noviembre de 2018
Photo: William Wan . Merger Arbitrage Update for November 2018

Merger arbitrage performance in November was bolstered by deals that received key regulatory approvals, including “green lights” from the Chinese regulatory authority. Specifically:

  • Rockwell Collins (COL-NYSE) and United Technologies received antitrust approval from China’s State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) for UTX’s acquisition of Collins. This was the last remaining hurdle for the deal after clearing U.S. antitrust in October. The deal was subsequently completed on November 27 and Collins shareholders received $93.33 cash and 0.37525 shares of United Technologies common stock for each share, or about $30 billion.
  • Aetna, Inc.’s (AET-NYSE) agreement to be acquired by CVS Health received a number of state regulatory approvals in November, culminating with New York Department of Financial Services on November 26. The U.S. DOJ approved the merger in October after the companies agreed to sell Aetna’s Medicare Part D business, the only area in which the two companies competed. The deal closed on November 28, and shareholders of Aetna received $145 cash and 0.8378 shares of CVS common stock for each share, or about $71 billion.
  • Twenty-First Century Fox (FOX-NASDAQ) shares traded higher after Disney received Chinese SAMR approval for its acquisition of Fox. The deal remains subject to Brazilian regulatory approvals which is expected early in the first quarter of 2019. Under terms of the agreement Fox shareholders will receive $38 in cash and Disney shares, as well as one share of New Fox, which will own Fox’s broadcast and cable assets.

 Some new deals announced in November included:

  • ARRIS International (ARRS-NASDAQ), a manufacturer of communications equipment and related products, agreed to be acquired by CommScope Holding for $31.75 cash per share, or about $7 billion. 
  • Athenahealth, Inc. (ATHN-NASDAQ), a provider of cloud-based software used to manage electronic health records and medical practices, agreed to be acquired by a consortium led by Veritas Capital for $135 cash per share, or about $6 billion.
  • BTG plc (BTG LN-London), a medical technology and pharmaceutical licensing company, agreed to be acquired by Boston Scientific for £8.40 cash per share, or about £3.3 billion.

 We continue to find attractive opportunities investing in announced mergers and expect future deal activity will provide further prospects to generate returns uncorrelated to the market.

Column written by Michael Gabelli from Gabelli Funds

To access our proprietary value investment methodology, and dedicated merger arbitrage portfolio we offer the following UCITS Funds in each discipline:

GAMCO MERGER ARBITRAGE

GAMCO Merger Arbitrage UCITS Fund, launched in October 2011, is an open-end fund incorporated in Luxembourg and compliant with UCITS regulation. The team, dedicated strategy, and record dates back to 1985. The objective of the GAMCO Merger Arbitrage Fund is to achieve long-term capital growth by investing primarily in announced equity merger and acquisition transactions while maintaining a diversified portfolio. The Fund utilizes a highly specialized investment approach designed principally to profit from the successful completion of proposed mergers, takeovers, tender offers, leveraged buyouts and other types of corporate reorganizations. Analyzes and continuously monitors each pending transaction for potential risk, including: regulatory, terms, financing, and shareholder approval.

Merger investments are a highly liquid, non-market correlated, proven and consistent alternative to traditional fixed income and equity securities. Merger returns are dependent on deal spreads. Deal spreads are a function of time, deal risk premium, and interest rates. Returns are thus correlated to interest rate changes over the medium term and not the broader equity market. The prospect of rising rates would imply higher returns on mergers as spreads widen to compensate arbitrageurs. As bond markets decline (interest rates rise), merger returns should improve as capital allocation decisions adjust to the changes in the costs of capital.

Broad Market volatility can lead to widening of spreads in merger positions, coupled with our well-researched merger portfolios, offer the potential for enhanced IRRs through dynamic position sizing. Daily price volatility fluctuations coupled with less proprietary capital (the Volcker rule) in the U.S. have contributed to improving merger spreads and thus, overall returns. Thus our fund is well positioned as a cash substitute or fixed income alternative.

Our objectives are to compound and preserve wealth over time, while remaining non-correlated to the broad global markets. We created our first dedicated merger fund 32 years ago. Since then, our merger performance has grown client assets at an annualized rate of  approximately 10.7% gross and 7.6% net since 1985. Today, we manage assets on behalf of institutional and high net worth clients globally in a variety of fund structures and mandates.

Class I USD – LU0687944552
Class I EUR – LU0687944396
Class A USD – LU0687943745
Class A EUR – LU0687943661
Class R USD – LU1453360825
Class R EUR – LU1453361476

GAMCO ALL CAP VALUE

The GAMCO All Cap Value UCITS Fund launched in May, 2015 utilizes Gabelli’s its proprietary PMV with a Catalyst™ investment methodology, which has been in place since 1977. The Fund seeks absolute returns through event driven value investing. Our methodology centers around fundamental, research-driven, value based investing with a focus on asset values, cash flows and identifiable catalysts to maximize returns independent of market direction. The fund draws on the experience of its global portfolio team and 35+ value research analysts.

GAMCO is an active, bottom-up, value investor, and seeks to achieve real capital appreciation (relative to inflation) over the long term regardless of market cycles. Our value-oriented stock selection process is based on the fundamental investment principles first articulated in 1934 by Graham and Dodd, the founders of modern security analysis, and further augmented by Mario Gabelli in 1977 with his introduction of the concepts of Private Market Value (PMV) with a Catalyst™ into equity analysis. PMV with a Catalyst™ is our unique research methodology that focuses on individual stock selection by identifying firms selling below intrinsic value with a reasonable probability of realizing their PMV’s which we define as the price a strategic or financial acquirer would be willing to pay for the entire enterprise.  The fundamental valuation factors utilized to evaluate securities prior to inclusion/exclusion into the portfolio, our research driven approach views fundamental analysis as a three pronged approach:  free cash flow (earnings before, interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, minus the capital expenditures necessary to grow/maintain the business); earnings per share trends; and private market value (PMV), which encompasses on and off balance sheet assets and liabilities. Our team arrives at a PMV valuation by a rigorous assessment of fundamentals from publicly available information and judgement gained from meeting management, covering all size companies globally and our comprehensive, accumulated knowledge of a variety of sectors. We then identify businesses for the portfolio possessing the proper margin of safety and research variables from our deep research universe.

Class I USD – LU1216601648
Class I EUR – LU1216601564
Class A USD – LU1216600913
Class A EUR – LU1216600673
Class R USD – LU1453359900
Class R EUR – LU1453360155

Disclaimer:
The information and any opinions have been obtained from or are based on sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No responsibility can be accepted for any consequential loss arising from the use of this information. The information is expressed at its date and is issued only to and directed only at those individuals who are permitted to receive such information in accordance with the applicable statutes. In some countries the distribution of this publication may be restricted. It is your responsibility to find out what those restrictions are and observe them.
 
Some of the statements in this presentation may contain or be based on forward looking statements, forecasts, estimates, projections, targets, or prognosis (“forward looking statements”), which reflect the manager’s current view of future events, economic developments and financial performance. Such forward looking statements are typically indicated by the use of words which express an estimate, expectation, belief, target or forecast. Such forward looking statements are based on an assessment of historical economic data, on the experience and current plans of the investment manager and/or certain advisors of the manager, and on the indicated sources. These forward looking statements contain no representation or warranty of whatever kind that such future events will occur or that they will occur as described herein, or that such results will be achieved by the fund or the investments of the fund, as the occurrence of these events and the results of the fund are subject to various risks and uncertainties. The actual portfolio, and thus results, of the fund may differ substantially from those assumed in the forward looking statements. The manager and its affiliates will not undertake to update or review the forward looking statements contained in this presentation, whether as result of new information or any future event or otherwise.
 

 

The US Dollar Should Weaken As Global Growth Converges Again In 2019

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El dólar estadounidense debería irse debilitando a medida que el crecimiento global vaya convergiendo de nuevo en 2019
CC-BY-SA-2.0, Flickr. The US Dollar Should Weaken As Global Growth Converges Again In 2019

The US dollar was a clear winner in 2018 as it was one of the very few assets to register gains. Exceptionally strong US economic growth, political upheavals in Europe and the emerging markets and escalating trade tensions have buoyed the greenback this year.

Softer data in Europe brought on fears of a slowdown in the region and distanced the possibility of seeing a rate hike by the European Central Bank. In Italy, the coalition government of the League and the 5-Star Movement brought forth a budget plan that defied the European Commission and riled investors who feared that an increase in Italian debt would send ripple effects across markets. The pound sterling also weakened against the dollar in the face of the never-ending negotiations to reach a Brexit agreement. Finally, higher interest rates and the trade war between US and China especially affected emerging market currencies, as a more severe slowdown in China would have a direct impact on their economies.

We thought the dollar would weaken in 2018 but we had not foreseen the protracted trade war negotiations nor the outcome of the Italian election. 2018 has been a year of diverging economies, with a striving US on one side and the rest of the world on the other. We think this should change in 2019 as the fiscal stimulus fades in the US and the rest of the world recovers.

The slowdown in Europe was partly due to the normalisation of unsustainable high growth rates in 2017 and temporary factors such as the decline in the auto sector. The implementation of the Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicles Test Procedure in September may well help to cut carbon emissions, but it also created problems in the production, distribution and storage of vehicles. Nevertheless, Europe is still growing above trend and these temporary factors should dissipate going forward. Furthermore, base effects will become easier and the improvement in the labour market should continue to support domestic demand.

With respect to political risks, Italy cannot go too far in its fiscal deviation as the markets will push yields higher, going against Italy’s own interests. It is precisely for this reason that they have already brought the deficit target down to 2.04%, almost in line with the requirements of the EC. As for the UK, there seems to be a multitude of possible outcomes, including an early general election or even another referendum. But whatever the outcome, eventually the UK will have to reach an agreement as a no-deal Brexit would be too disastrous for its economy.

Regarding emerging markets, we think China will resort to fiscal stimulus policies should the growth rate drop below 6% and, even though the ride could still be rocky, a trade agreement between the US and China should be reached in the best interest of all parties.

Market sentiment towards all these risks is already very negative and a gloomy scenario seems to be priced in. A positive outcome for any one of these issues, therefore, would probably see a downward movement in the dollar. Ultimately, the most important factor for currency movements is the shift in interest rate differentials. The market is only pricing in 40 bp of hikes by the ECB over the next two years, whereas the Fed is nearing the end of its hiking cycle. Consequently, there is ample room for a hawkish surprise on behalf of the ECB.

The main risk to this view is that the dollar may only start to depreciate during the second half of 2019, as political tensions may take time to resolve themselves and the European parliamentary elections in May could prove to be yet another hurdle. 

Column by Jadwiga Kitovitz, CFA, Head of Multi-Asset Management and Institutional Clients of Crèdit Andorrà Group. . Crèdit Andorrà Financial Group Research.