Foto cedidaYves Perrier, consejero delegado de Amundi.. Amundi firma con Société Générale el acuerdo marco para la compra de Lyxor
Amundi declared in a press release that it has entered into exclusive negotiations with Société Générale for the acquisition of Lyxor for 825 million euros (755 million euros excluding excess capital) in cash.
The asset manager highlighted that the transaction would allow them to accelerate its development on the fast-growing ETF segment, while complementing its offering in active management, in particular in liquid alternative assets as well as advisory solutions.
The operation is expected to be completed by February 2022 at the latest, after consultation of the Works Councils, and subject to receiving the required regulatory and anti-trust approvals.
After this acquisition, Amundi will become the European leader in ETF, with 142 billion euros in assets under management, a 14% market share in Europe and a diversified profile in terms of client base and geography.
Founded in 1998, Lyxor is a pioneer in ETF in Europe and has 124 billion euros in assets under management. It is one of the key players in the ETF market, with 77 billion of assets under management and a 7.4% market share in Europe. Also, Amundi pointed out that it has developed a recognized expertise in active management, notably through its leading alternative platform.
“The acquisition of Lyxor will accelerate the development of Amundi, as it will reinforce our expertise, namely in ETF and alternative asset management, and allows us to welcome highly recognized teams of people. This acquisition is fully in line with the Crédit Agricole group’s reinforcement strategy in the asset gathering business. It will also further reinforce the business relationships with our historical partner Société Générale. Finally, by creating in France the European leader in passive asset management, it will contribute to the post-Brexit positioning of the Paris financial centre”, said Yves Perrier, Chief Executive Officer of Amundi.
Lastly, Valérie Baudson, Deputy Chief Executive Officer, claimed that they are looking forward to welcoming the “talented teams” of Lyxor. “The combinations of our strengths will allow us to accelerate our development in the ETF, alternative asset management and the investments solutions segments”, she added.
Foto cedidaTim Ryan, consejero delegado de Natixis IM.. Tim Ryan, nuevo consejero delegado de Natixis IM
Tim Ryan, former CIO at Generali, has been appointed member of the Natixis senior management committee in charge of Asset & Wealth Management, and CEO of Natixis Investment Managers, effective April 12th. He will succeed Jean Raby, who has decided to pursue another professional opportunity, revealed Natixis in a press release.
Ryan started his career in the asset management industry in 1992, working in quantitative research and equity portfolio management in an HSBC subsidiary. In 2000 he joined AXA, where he broadened his experience as Head of Quantitative Asset Management before becoming Chief Investment Officer for the insurance business in Japan in 2003 and subsequently for Asia. In 2008, he was appointed Chief Executive Officer in charge of various regions (Japan and EMEA) for AllianceBernstein’s US asset management subsidiary. In 2017, Ryan joined Generali as Group Chief Investment Officer for insurance assets and Global CEO of Asset & Wealth Management.
“I would like to warmly thank Jean Raby for his remarkable work over these past four years. Under his leadership, Natixis Investment Managers has asserted its position as a world leader in asset management with assets under management of more than 1.1 trillion euros and has built out its commercial offer with new affiliate asset managers and new areas of expertise. I am pleased that Jean will remain at my side over the coming weeks to ensure an efficient transition”, commented Nicolas Namias, CEO of Natixis and Chairman of the Board of Directors of Natixis IM.
He also said that, as they prepare to launch their new strategic plan for the period to 2024, he is “delighted” to welcome Ryan to drive forward their “robust momentum” across their Asset & Wealth Management businesses, develop their multi-affiliate model to serve their clients and enhance their ESG strategy. “Ryan’s in-depth knowledge of the asset and wealth management businesses, together with his international experience, leadership and business development skills, will be key advantages for Natixis and our Group”, he added.
Foto cedidaMatt Christensen, director global de Inversión sostenible e impacto de Allianz GI.. Allianz GI amplía y reestructura su equipo global de inversión sostenible bajo el liderazgo de Matt Christensen
Allianz Global Investors has announced the expansion and restructuring of its global Sustainable Investment team under the leadership of Matt Christensen, Global Head of Sustainable and Impact Investing, to enhance its commitment to sustainability. In this sense, they are hiring Thomas Roulland and Julien Bertrand.
The asset manager has decided to create three pillars for this new structure which will help ensure they continue “to push the boundaries of sustainability for its clients”, they highlighted in a press release. First, a newly created Sustainability Methodologies & Analytics teamwill innovate with state-of-the-art technology and ESG data, including Artificial Intelligence and Natural Language Processing, in order to support research, develop new methodologies across asset classes and develop client-oriented solutions. The team will also oversee Allianz GI’s ESG integration efforts, ESG scoring method and develop the firm’s data set for the climate strategy.
“We have strong ambitions with regard to carbon reduction, and the new team will be instrumental in transforming the pathway set out by the Net Zero Initiatives into operational targets for investors and comprehensive reporting to our clients”, Christensen commented.
Roulland will head the Sustainability Methodologies & Analytics team and will be joined by Bertrand as an ESG analyst for methodologies and analytics. Both join from Axa IM, where Roulland was Head of Responsible Investment Solutions, Models & Tools, and Bertrand worked as an ESG analyst recently.
The asset manager has revealed that the second area is a new Sustainability Research & Stewardship team. It will manage the thematic research and engagement strategy under the leadership of Mark Wade, who was previously Co-Director of Research Credit.
Isabel Reusswill continue to head the Sustainability Research team, which will also develop a thematic approach along the topics of Climate, Planetary Boundaries and Inclusive Capitalism. Antje Stobbe, member of the Sustainability Research team since 2019, has been promoted Head of Stewardship and will lead Allianz GI’s engagement and proxy voting activities globally. They will both co-lead the “Climate Engagement with Outcome”. This approach aims to engage with companies on the climate transition pathway towards a low carbon economy.
Finally, a newly created Sustainable Investment Office will be responsible for shaping AllianzGI’s overall sustainable investment strategy and policies, sustainable product strategy and the coordination of cross-functional sustainability topics across the firm. The team will play a critical role in providing improved knowledge to clients and other stakeholders on AllianzGI’s sustainable investment capabilities. It will be headed by Nina Hodzic, who was Director ESG Integration and Solutions since 2019 and has been promoted to the new role.
Christensen believes that this structure brings a new focus on ESG data and technology, a refreshed research setup and a dedicated sustainable investment office that will help accelerate their drive to embed sustainability across the firm. “The team set-up will provide us with the platform we need to ensure that we are in a position to shape -not follow- the market in the years ahead on critical issues like climate change and social inequalities”, he added.
Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. NN IP amplía su gama de estrategias de bonos verdes con un nuevo fondo de deuda soberana
NN Investment Partners has announced in a press release the launch of the NN (L) Sovereign Green Bond, a new fund adding to its green bond offering.
The asset manager said that this is the first sovereign bond fund aiming to have a positive environmental impact through the projects it finances. It complements its existing range of green bond funds, applying the same investment approach as the NN (L) Green Bond fund, but with a specific focus on treasury and government-related bonds.
The new vehicle comes just five years after NN IP launched its first dedicated green bond fund and only one year after launching a corporate green bond fund. Currently, they offer a full range of green bond funds: aggregate, corporate, sovereign, and an option for a fund with a shorter duration.
In their view, by having access to separate sovereign and corporate green bond funds, investors enjoy “maximum flexibility” to select the building blocks they need to make their fixed income allocation more sustainable with a measurable and positive impact.
“I am proud to be part of the development of an asset class that will play a key role in financing climate change mitigation and supporting the environment. Whilst in the past, investor demand for green bonds mainly came from impact investors, we now see more typical fixed income investors allocating to green bonds as well”, commented Bram Bos, Lead Portfolio Manager Green Bonds at NN IP.
In his opinion, these investors are looking to make their portfolio more sustainable without sacrificing financial performance. “Offering a broad range of green bond strategies makes this even easier, as it allows them maximum flexibility to allocate to green bonds that replicate the characteristics of traditional bonds in their portfolio”, he added.
An exponential growth
Lastly, NN IP highlighted that the launch of the sovereign green bond fund occurs at a time when the sovereign green bond market has seen significant growth in issuance, representing a diverse issuer base that they believe will continue to grow exponentially. Italy recently issued its inaugural green bond in March whilst Spain and the UK have also announced plans to issue their first green bonds in 2021, which will give the sovereign green bond market a further boost.
“These developments are creating a market that is well-diversified in terms of issuers and countries, which allows for a well-diversified portfolio with comparable characteristics to a regular allocation to treasuries”, they pointed out.
The asset manager estimates that green bond issuance could increase this year by 50%from 2020 to 400 billion euros, putting the total market above the 1 trillion mark, and expects the global green bond market to grow to 2 trillion euros by the end of 2023. The announcement from the EU that 30% of the NextGenerationEU bonds (in total 800 billion euros) will be green supports NN IP’s forecast for market growth.
Foto cedidaDe izquierda a derecha: Marc van Heems, estor de fondos para la estrategia de bonos corpo. Vontobel refuerza su equipo de renta fija global en Zúrich y Nueva York
Vontobel has expanded its fixed income team with four seasoned new hires in Zurich and New York. The asset manager pointed out in a press release that the appointments -which follow four new hires in January across its Zurich and Hong Kong offices- reinforce its commitment to attracting the best investment talent to drive value for investors.
Pamela Gelleshas been named Senior Credit Analyst on the Developed Market Corporate Bonds team in New York. She joins Vontobel after eight years at BNP Paribas Asset Management, where she was a credit analyst following both investment grade and high yield companies within the consumer products, retail, hospitality and transportation sectors. She also co-created and implemented an ESG methodology for the company’s credit analysis.
Prior to that, Gelles covered various industry sectors, including healthcare and utilities, at BNY Mellon Asset Management, Foresters Financial, NLI International and The Carlyle Group. She also spent 12 years as a ratings analyst at Standard & Poor’s.
Another outstanding designation is that of Marc van Heemsas Portfolio Manager for the Global Corporate Bond strategy in Zurich. He joins Vontobel from Lombard Odier Investment Management, where he was a portfolio manager for European and Emerging Markets Credit, responsible for active implementation of trades in investment grade and BB-rated bonds, including senior and subordinated cash bonds and credit default swaps. As a credit analyst, he covered non-financial sectors in developed markets and Asia, including Autos/Parts Suppliers, Defense/Aerospace, Capital Goods, China Real Estate, Indian Renewables and Energy.
The Zurich offices will also welcome as Head of Fixed Income Trading Jean-Michel Manry, a seasoned Operations and Trading Manager with expertise in derivatives, fixed income and forex. He joins from Rama Capital, a Geneva-based family office where he was an Operational and Trading Advisor. Prior to that, Manry spent 18 years at Pictet Asset Management, where he was Head of Fixed Income Trading and later became Head of Buy-side Trading for Multi-Asset strategies.
Lastly, Nicolas Hauser has been appointed Fixed Income Trader in Zurich. He joins from Fisch Asset Management, where he was responsible for trading and execution of corporate bonds and convertible bonds, as well as FX and futures. His expertise also includes futures trading for CTA managed futures accounts and interest rate risk hedging.
Simon Lue-Fong, Head of Fixed Income at Vontobel, highlighted that these hires reflect “the continued growth of, and investment into,” their global fixed income offering. “The volatility in markets over the last few months has demonstrated the importance of a truly active approach and the value of our high conviction active management style. Marc and Pamela will play key roles in helping to deliver value for our clients, and the knowledge and insight they provide will be instrumental in supporting the rest of the team”, he added.
Currently, the Fixed Income team consists of 41 investment professionals located in Zurich, New York and Hong Kong.
Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. Capital Group lanza un fondo de renta variable con enfoque de alta convicción que invierte en compañías asiáticas
Capital Group has announced the launch of its Capital Group Asian Horizon Fund (LUX), which seeks to capture Asia’s secular growth opportunities with a global perspective.
In a press release, the asset manager highlighted that Asia is fast becoming “a global economic powerhouse” and its rapidly growing middle class have brought about “a huge rise in the demand” of every kind of products and services, from healthcare and financial services to luxury goods and online entertainment. That’s why Capital Group Asian Horizon Fund (LUX) is designed to meet “growing investor appetite” for Asia-related stocks as global investors become increasingly aware of opportunities that arise from secular growth trends in the region.
The strategy is a high conviction portfolio, investing across the market cap and valuation spectrum to achieve long-term capital growth. The fund invests in companies with at least two-thirds of net assets based in Asia ex-Japan, including onshore China A-shares, but it also has the flexibility to invest in companies domiciled outside of the region, where Capital Group’s analysts believe that exposure to Asia will be a key driver of their future growth prospects.
By combining local and global investments, the asset manager created the fund to fully unlock access to “the most exciting growth opportunities” in Asia ex-Japan.
“Asia is becoming a global economic powerhouse and is home to some of the world’s most innovative and fastest-growing companies. Its multi-dimensional growth story is unique, and we are well placed to ensure that investors can tap into domiciled opportunities just as well as those outside the region that are plugged into the growth drivers within the Asian market. With our proven track record of being early investors in Asia’s emerging leaders, we believe that Capital Group Asian Horizon Fund (LUX) is a great example of helping investors to identify champions.”
Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. Un ETF para capturar la revolución energética
The crowds of tourists vanished from Venice’s historic canals. Fish were seen swimming in the city’s normally murky waterways. Then, NASA published satellite images of Earth, showing a dramatic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions across all the major cities under lockdown.
For a moment, we saw what a future low-carbon world might look like.
Demand for new energy grew in 2020
During a turbulent 2020, demand for energy generated by coal and oil fell by 8.5% and 6.7% respectively. But demand for renewable energy rose by +1%.
Renewable energy demonstrated its reliability, even in a recession. The massive stimulus response from central banks created favourable financing conditions for both wind and photovoltaic (PV) solar projects. And some institutional investors even saw new energy as a safer-haven investment, as its returns can have lower correlation to more mainstream asset classes.
This progress was happening as fossil fuel demand plummeted to its lowest level in more than 70 years. At one point, oil futures were trading at negative prices due to a massive glut in supply.
The chart below from the IEA shows the global energy demand by source in 2020:
Misconceptions persist about renewable energy
Although demand for renewable energy remained positive during the pandemic and more people are carbon-aware than ever, there are still many misconceptions about it.
These misconceptions are gradually being debunked – and new energy sources could see a major increase in investment as a result. Let’s address three common concerns about renewables and new energy now:
Misconception #1: “Renewable energy is just hype”
Renewable energy is being adopted because it makes financial sense. Over half the coal plants operating today cost more to run than building new renewable energy infrastructure instead. Even cancelling new coal power station projects today could save more than half a trillion dollars globally.
The ‘levelised cost of energy’ (LCOE), which is directly linked to the costs to build and operate an energy generator, has fallen significantly for both wind and photovoltaic solar power. Across the globe, LCOE for wind, solar and battery storage has plummeted over the past decade, led by technological advances and increasing cumulative installed capacity, which have progressively reduced costs.
The cost of renewable energy and battery storage has plummeted
The chart below from BloombergNEF shows the Global LCOE benchmarks for PV, wind and batteries:
Misconception #2: “All fossil fuel-related financing is unsustainable”
The world needs energy to power the economic growth that makes the low-carbon transition possible. While directly financing fossil fuel plants is not sustainable, the financing of energy efficiency for fossil fuels does help us transition towards a more sustainable world. Rather than stopping all investment in fossil fuel-related companies, it would be more effective to improve the efficiency of the existing energy model, even as we manage the transition to the low-carbon model.
We want to – and must – move towards the new energy model. But in the meantime, we have fossil fuels to manage, and improving the energy efficiency existing fossil fuel plants is an important part of that.
Many energy companies have been moving towards ‘combined-cycle’ power plants that use both a gas and a steam turbine to produce energy. General Electric has estimated that up to 50% more electricity using the same fuel can be produced this way.
Natural gas is still a fossil fuel, but it is cleaner. Burning natural gas for energy results in lower emissions for nearly all types of air pollutants. It also complements new energy well, because combined-cycle turbines are cheap to get going and can provide power at short notice or when renewable energy is not available. The two technologies used in combination could drastically cut greenhouse gas emissions.
Misconception #3: “New energy is only viable because of subsidies”
The new energy market has developed to such an extent that subsidies are no longer needed in most parts of the world. For instance, the feed-in tariff system used by European countries to accelerate investment into new energy technology has largely come to an end.
It is being replaced by a more dynamic power purchase agreement market (PPAs), which are agreements to supply energy at a fixed price and quantity. The result is that energy companies get a guaranteed cash flow, and clients receive a guaranteed price and supply of energy.
None of this would be possible unless new energy was cheap, reliable and profitable to produce. Thanks to technical improvements and more competitive marginal costs – led by the ‘learning curve’ of renewable energy that reduces costs as more is produced – this sector needs less and less subsidy.
In our view, this is a structural shift, because the cost of renewables will decline over time. Fossil fuel costs will not decline over time – they may even increase over time, as most of the accessible sources have already been extracted. Now, fossil fuel Exploration & Production (E&P) companies must increasingly target controversial reserves that are harder to extract, such as those in the Arctic, tar sands, or shale gas.
Finally, the EU ‘Green Deal’ will also drive capital towards new energy companies, while the EU is thinking of significantly reducing fossil fuel subsidies as they undermine the efforts to reach carbon neutrality by 2050, as enshrined in the Paris Agreement.
While we at Lyxor talk a lot about the Paris-Aligned and Climate Transition benchmarks for net zero investing, these are not the only relevant strategies. Trends to be financed by green deal are broader than that, including sustainable mobility and smarter city infrastructure.
How to get investment exposure to new energy
One way to gain a targeted investment exposure to new energy is through the Lyxor New Energy (DR) UCITS ETF. It tracks the world’s 40 largest companies operating in three key areas of the new energy industry: renewables, distributed energy, and energy efficiency.
Ørsted – Renewable energy
Danish power company Ørsted (formerly DONG Energy) is a global leader in the offshore wind market. It is in a strong position to capitalise on the soaring demand for new energy needs in Europe due to the emission quotas defined in the Paris Agreement.
What’s fascinating about this company is that it was once fossil-fuel focused. In 2017, the group sold its oil and gas business to British chemicals company Ineos. More recently, it offloaded its liquefied natural gas operations to Glencore. Instead of returning the cash from the sale of these businesses to investors, the company chose to make a big push into offshore wind.
Ørsted was one of the first energy companies in the world to have a greenhouse gas emissions reduction target approved by the Science Based Targets initiative, and it estimates its target is 27 years ahead of schedule compared to the 2°C scenario for the energy sector as projected by the IEA.
Plug Power – Distributed energy
Distributed energy is the concept of global decentralised electricity production close to the point of consumption. Hydrogen is part of this, and green hydrogen in particular can be an extraordinary zero-carbon source of electricity.
As a result, an important area of development in new energy is storage – stationary storage stations, or onboard vehicles, vessels, planes, and so on. American company Plug Power develops hydrogen fuel cells to replace traditional batteries in electric vehicles and supplies these cells to major clients including Amazon and Walmart.
Distributed energy is what can bring resilience, contrary to hyper centralised production and grid systems. It’s also a game-changer for renewables, whose main drawback is that they are intermittent, and unable to – for example – provide 24/7 power to a hospital. With distributed energy systems, renewable energy can become a more stable energy source.
NIBE Industrier AB – Energy efficiency
Swedish company NIBE builds and sells solutions to reduce energy consumption and improve efficiency. It develops, manufactures and markets a range of energy-efficient solutions for climate comfort in all types of property, plus components and solutions for intelligent heating in industry and infrastructure.
This includes heat pumps and solar cells for private houses, the renovation of old buildings, public buildings, and even development of products for efficient energy utilisation in cars, such as elements for battery heaters and interior heaters that use sources such as braking energy.
NIBE’s heat pumps are being used in a new housing project in the Kortenoord district of Wageningen, The Netherlands, where around 1,000 homes are being built without a gas pipeline. The houses have optimum insulation and are equipped with energy-saving products such as heat pumps, solar panels and solar water heaters.
A megatrend in progress
New energy is part of a megatrend – one that will radically shape the society and business models of the future, underpinned by the global effort to achieve net zero by 2050.
This imperative explains the significant amount of investment flowing into the new energy industry. $282 billion of renewable energy capacity was financed in 2019, led by onshore and offshore wind with $138 billion, followed by solar at $131 billion.
And yet, this shift is just beginning. A revolution is underway in the energy market. It wasn’t started by the pandemic – this is a structural movement towards new energy that has developed over several years, backed by falling costs. It was recently accelerated by the events of 2020, that reduced demand for fossil fuels and related industries such as steel and cement.
Ultimately, renewable energies are on a declining cost trajectory, while fossil fuels have high and fixed costs. That cost trajectory implies that renewables will be cheaper than fossil fuels, which is already true in many cases, with or without disruptive global events.
The pandemic accelerated what was already happening in the new energy industry. It has acted as a catalyst for more rapid change. For investors, the Lyxor New Energy ETF, which recently passed $1 billion in assets under management, could be a great way to get involved in this change and become part of the new energy revolution.
A column by Paloma Torres, Associate, ETF CRM and Sales for Iberia and Latam in Lyxor Asset Management
Foto cedidaSasha Evers, responsable de distribución minorista para Europa en BNY Mellon Investment Management.. Sasha Evers, nuevo responsable de distribución minorista para Europa de BNY Mellon IM
BNY Mellon Investment Management has announced this week changes in leadership roles at a global level, starting with the appointment of Sasha Evers as head of retail distribution for Europe. Based in Madrid, he will report to Matt Oomen, global head of distribution, and Ralph Elder will take over his role as head of Iberia and Latin America.
In this newly created role, Evers will be responsible for leading, defining and executing the firm’s distribution strategy in Europe’s retail segment. He will work closely with its investment firms, including Newton Investment Management, Insight Investment and Walter Scott, “to provide clients with high quality, relevant investment strategies that meet their needs and objectives”, the asset manager pointed out in a press release.
His appointment comes after Hilary Lopez, head of European intermediary distribution, announced that she has decided to leave the company after 11 years “to pursue other opportunities”.
Evers has been with BNY Mellon IM for more than 21 years and was most recently head of Iberia and Latin America. Now, Ralph Elder, formerly director of sales for the Iberian region, will assume the leadership of those businesses. Elder has been with the company two decades and has been key in the development of the Iberia business.
Strengthen European presence
“The retail market in Europe is a strategically important part of our business. Sasha has a proven track record of building successful businesses and teams, developing longstanding client relationships and growing assets. I am thrilled to be working more closely with him as we drive further growth in the segment and strengthen our presence across Europe”, said Matt Oomen, global head of distribution at BNY Mellon IM.
He also claimed to be “delighted” that Elder will lead the Iberia and Latin America businesses because he has played “an integral role” in building them alongside Evers over the past 20 years. “I would also like to thank Hilary for her many contributions to the firm and wish her the very best in her future endeavours”, he added.
Meanwhile, Evers commented: “I am very excited by this opportunity to lead our retail distribution strategy in Europe. I look forward to working with all our businesses across the Continent to drive further our growth in this key client segment. Ralph has been a key driver of our success in the Iberia region and I am delighted that he will lead our Iberia and Latin America businesses going forward.”
Foto cedida. Santander Private Banking acuerda la compra del negocio de banca privada de Indosuez en Miami
Santander Private Banking has reached an agreement with Indosuez Wealth Management –the global wealth management brand of Crédit Agricole group– to purchase 4.3 billion dollars in client assets and liabilities. The firm has announced in a press release that the transaction is subject to regulatory approval and is expected to close by midyear 2021.
“This transaction, which leverages our geographic presence and our capabilities as a leading financial group, is another step toward our goal of becoming the best global private banking platform. We want to keep growing our business –especially in geographies where we see major commercial potential like the US– and elevate our position as a growth engine for Grupo Santander”, said the Global Head of Santander Wealth Management & Insurance, Víctor Matarranz.
Meanwhile, Jacques Prost, CEO at Indosuez, commented that, after close evaluation of a number of international bidders, Santander’s proposal for the Miami business stood out to Indosuez thanks to the bank’s high quality and strong reputation.
“We are confident that this is the right fit to meet the interests of our clients and our people in Miami, ensuring a smooth transition and building on Santander’s sizeable footprint and 42-year long experience in the region. Indosuez’s decision to leave the Miami market was carefully considered due to our longstanding presence in the region, but was made in line with Indosuez’s strategy of focusing and expanding its presence in its key markets”, he added.
Santander US CEO Tim Wennes also assessed the acquisition, pointing out that it is part of the growth strategy for Santander US, which includes organic and inorganic opportunities. “I am confident that the team will provide world-class services to our new clients from Indosuez”, he said.
The bank has explained that the transaction will be executed through Banco Santander International (BSI), part of Santander Private Banking, Grupo Santander’s business unit dedicated to the private banking segment. Santander Private Banking manages a volume of 230 billion euros in customer assets and liabilities. BSI is a wholly owned subsidiary of Santander Holdings USA, Inc., Banco Santander’s intermediate holding company in the U.S.
Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. Focos de tensión en la rivalidad sino-estadounidense: quien controle el estrecho de Taiwán controlará la economía mundial
Mainly playing out across the vast Pacific Ocean, the great power rivalry between the US and China is the dominant geopolitical conflict of our time. There are deep-rooted economic, demographic, and geographic forces at work, reshaping the world’s most important bilateral relationship. A unipolar world where the global hegemon, the US, had unmatched global capacity and influence is morphing into a balanced, multipolar world where various countries have an ever-increasing impact on global decision-making and action.
At the end of World War II, the US accounted for a far larger share of global GDP than would be warranted given its population. To be sure, some of this was due to the US economy’s unrivaled level of productivity and innovation. The US will always punch above its weight because of these factors. But the main reason why the US was the overwhelmingly dominant economic engine of the world was that most major economies lay in ruins after that devastating conflict. In a famous study authored by the British economist Angus Maddison, the US’ share of global GDP reached a zenith of almost 40% in the early 1950s.
Since then, our share of global GDP has been steadily waning. To paraphrase economist Herbert Stein, that which can’t go on won’t. The other component to this relative slide has been China’s rising economic heft. For most of its history, the Mainland’s share of global GDP hovered between 30% and 35%, according to this same seminal work. In other words, China’s rise is merely a return to its normal, baseline level of economic clout. The previous century was the anomaly. China’s rise should and will continue.
So, what does this tell us about the ensuing power struggle between the two countries? Is confrontation inevitable? Can we avoid Thucydides’ famous trap? When paradigms shift, there will always be friction. With tectonic shifts, you might not always get an earthquake, but there are usually a few tremors. The 2018/19 trade dispute was but the first truly global spat between these two rivals. One can expect many more to come with Taiwan being at the vanguard of potential flashpoints. It is not an exaggeration to say that the Republic of China, the official name for the island nation just off the Mainland, is quickly becoming the most important and most-watched nation on Earth.
Taiwan dominates sophisticated global chip manufacturing, and its comparative advantage should only increase. Earlier this year, the shutdowns in American and European auto manufacturing plants had less to do with Covid-19 and more to do with chip shortages in Asia. While these bottlenecks will sort themselves out in the near-term, they are emblematic of a broader problem: semiconductors are the new oil and Taiwan is the new Saudi Arabia. Worryingly, this market is even more concentrated than the oil market is because there are fewer producers. Whoever controls Taiwan can effectively influence the world’s global supply of microchips.
This is not hyperbole. Because the cost of achieving higher logic density has increased so exponentially, it means that new microchip technology entails massive capital investments that require producers to operate with a very high utilization rate. The barriers to entry are prohibitively high. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company comprises half of the global semiconductor foundry market. Together with Taiwan’s other giant United Microelectronics Corporation and South Korea’s Samsung, the three companies account for 78% of global market share. In sum, the microprocessor market is highly and dangerously concentrated in Taiwan. From the West’s perspective, this is dangerous because China covets a reunification with Taiwan. Thanks to its actions in Hong Kong, everyone now knows what that would look like under Xi Jinping.
Every investor and policymaker worth their salt will have to account for the vulnerabilities inherent in a world should the situation across the Taiwan Strait deteriorate. An incident where chip production was disrupted or halted, or supply lines were permanently denied could be catastrophic for the global economy. If you think the US would not go to war over chip manufacturing in Taiwan, then you do not remember the US going to war in Kuwait over oil in the early 1990s. Of course, China would pack a stronger punch than Iraq ever could, and Taiwan’s importance means that all stakeholders around the world have incentives to de-escalate.
But as World War I showed us, rational actors can stumble into a conflict through a series of miscalculations after the assassination of an Archduke. Incidentally, World War I was the last time a rising, regional hegemon (Germany) confronted the entrenched global hegemon (the UK). To be sure, I am not saying that the result of this great power rivalry will be a third world war. I am also not precluding it from turning out that way either if the wrong policy mix makes us stumble in that direction. Certainly, Taiwan’s importance to the global economy means that all stakeholders, which in the extreme means all nations, are incentivized to cooperate, and maintain stability. Elementary game theory teaches how that decision-making process can go awry, and behavioral economics similarly suggests that not all decisions, even at the state-level, are rational and motivated by self-interest.
What are investors and market participants to do? Do we run to the proverbial risk bunker and wait out the coming conflict? Again, history provides a clear answer – an emphatic “no”. During the Cold War, broadly defined as 1947 till 1991, the S&P 500 rose 2,708% (7.70% annualized) despite enough missiles being pointed at each other to wipe out humanity many times over. Lest we forget, the world stood at the brink of doomsday several times during this now quickly receding era: The Berlin Airlift, the Korean War, the Soviet Invasion of Hungary, and the Cuban Missile Crisis. That was our conflict with the ideological and militant Soviets. Conflicts with the capitalist Chinese may turn out a tad less unnerving.
We must learn how to interpret the decisions and actions of these two great nations within the framework of this great power rivalry: the US wants to maintain the status quo, its place at the center of the post-WWII order, while China wants to regain its historical place and displace said order. From the American side, you will see intensifying economic pressure, and support of borderland states like Taiwan as an attempt to limit China to the first island chain. One will see the US trying to encircle the Chinese through alliances and balance of power moves allowing Japanese remilitarization and an Indian rapprochement.
For China’s part, it must ensure that it can keep delivering the economic growth that its masses have come to expect and that underpin the government’s credibility. To that end, we will see attempts to bypass the global commons, the oceans that the ubiquitous US Navy still dominates. The Chinese have reconnected with the Russians, as a unified Eurasian landmass will better counter the seagoing Americans. There will be other, yet to be determined, manifestations of this global conflict. It is important that we recognize them when they arrive.The markets will have to learn how to discount this risk premium, and, as they have done in earlier eras of shifting paradigms, they will adjust to the new reality.
