Corporate Earnings Season Keeps Pointing Towards Higher Growth

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Foto cedidaCorporate Earnings Season Keeps Pointing Towards Higher Growth. Brújula

US equities propelled the market higher, with major indices achieving all-time highs. Despite the backdrop of supply chain issues, input cost pressures and tight labor markets, corporate earnings season highlighted higher demand and improved margins.

The FDA is on track to approve Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine for use in children ages 5-11 and booster vaccines continue to be distributed to the rest of the population. While the Delta wave of the pandemic is past its peak, the approaching holidays and winter months will test whether the U.S. can sustain that momentum.

Markets have shown that investors are expecting the Fed to raise interest rates next summer, following recent inflation reports and signals from other major central banks that they are moving towards tightening policy. Inflation has been linked to the supply chain crunch that is leading to shortages and shipping problems, which has already affected holiday shopping. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that while we see those things resolving, it is very difficult to say how big those effects will be in the meantime or how long they will last.

M&A continued pace in October with many notable deals making progress including Kansas City Southern and Canadian Pacific had their voting trust reaffirmed by the Surface Transportation Board leaving just Mexican regulatory approval outstanding for their $31 billion deal; and Kadmon received U.S. antitrust approval to be acquired by Sanofi for $9.50 cash, or about $1.6 billion, clearing the way for the deal to close in November.

 Equity markets surged in October bringing convertibles along with them. In sharp contrast to the many concerns facing equities in September, the market shifted its focus towards earnings, which have been generally good so far. Convertible issuance stalled but should pick up again as we get closer to year-end.

 

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GAMCO MERGER ARBITRAGE

GAMCO Merger Arbitrage UCITS Fund, launched in October 2011, is an open-end fund incorporated in Luxembourg and compliant with UCITS regulation. The team, dedicated strategy, and record dates back to 1985. The objective of the GAMCO Merger Arbitrage Fund is to achieve long-term capital growth by investing primarily in announced equity merger and acquisition transactions while maintaining a diversified portfolio. The Fund utilizes a highly specialized investment approach designed principally to profit from the successful completion of proposed mergers, takeovers, tender offers, leveraged buyouts and other types of corporate reorganizations. Analyzes and continuously monitors each pending transaction for potential risk, including: regulatory, terms, financing, and shareholder approval.

Merger investments are a highly liquid, non-market correlated, proven and consistent alternative to traditional fixed income and equity securities. Merger returns are dependent on deal spreads. Deal spreads are a function of time, deal risk premium, and interest rates. Returns are thus correlated to interest rate changes over the medium term and not the broader equity market. The prospect of rising rates would imply higher returns on mergers as spreads widen to compensate arbitrageurs. As bond markets decline (interest rates rise), merger returns should improve as capital allocation decisions adjust to the changes in the costs of capital.

Broad Market volatility can lead to widening of spreads in merger positions, coupled with our well-researched merger portfolios, offer the potential for enhanced IRRs through dynamic position sizing. Daily price volatility fluctuations coupled with less proprietary capital (the Volcker rule) in the U.S. have contributed to improving merger spreads and thus, overall returns. Thus our fund is well positioned as a cash substitute or fixed income alternative.

Our objectives are to compound and preserve wealth over time, while remaining non-correlated to the broad global markets. We created our first dedicated merger fund 32 years ago. Since then, our merger performance has grown client assets at an annualized rate of  approximately 10.7% gross and 7.6% net since 1985. Today, we manage assets on behalf of institutional and high net worth clients globally in a variety of fund structures and mandates.

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GAMCO ALL CAP VALUE

The GAMCO All Cap Value UCITS Fund launched in May, 2015 utilizes Gabelli’s its proprietary PMV with a Catalyst™ investment methodology, which has been in place since 1977. The Fund seeks absolute returns through event driven value investing. Our methodology centers around fundamental, research-driven, value based investing with a focus on asset values, cash flows and identifiable catalysts to maximize returns independent of market direction. The fund draws on the experience of its global portfolio team and 35+ value research analysts.

GAMCO is an active, bottom-up, value investor, and seeks to achieve real capital appreciation (relative to inflation) over the long term regardless of market cycles. Our value-oriented stock selection process is based on the fundamental investment principles first articulated in 1934 by Graham and Dodd, the founders of modern security analysis, and further augmented by Mario Gabelli in 1977 with his introduction of the concepts of Private Market Value (PMV) with a Catalyst™ into equity analysis. PMV with a Catalyst™ is our unique research methodology that focuses on individual stock selection by identifying firms selling below intrinsic value with a reasonable probability of realizing their PMV’s which we define as the price a strategic or financial acquirer would be willing to pay for the entire enterprise.  The fundamental valuation factors utilized to evaluate securities prior to inclusion/exclusion into the portfolio, our research driven approach views fundamental analysis as a three pronged approach:  free cash flow (earnings before, interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, minus the capital expenditures necessary to grow/maintain the business); earnings per share trends; and private market value (PMV), which encompasses on and off balance sheet assets and liabilities. Our team arrives at a PMV valuation by a rigorous assessment of fundamentals from publicly available information and judgement gained from meeting management, covering all size companies globally and our comprehensive, accumulated knowledge of a variety of sectors. We then identify businesses for the portfolio possessing the proper margin of safety and research variables from our deep research universe.

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GAMCO CONVERTIBLE SECURITIES

GAMCO Convertible Securities’ objective is to seek to provide current income as well as long term capital appreciation through a total return strategy by investing in a diversified portfolio of global convertible securities.

The Fund leverages the firm’s history of investing in dedicated convertible security portfolios since 1979.

The fund invests in convertible securities, as well as other instruments that have economic characteristics similar to such securities, across global markets (but the fund will not invest in contingent convertible notes). The fund may invest in securities of any market capitalization or credit quality, including up to 100% in below investment grade or unrated securities, and may from time to time invest a significant amount of its assets in securities of smaller companies. Convertible securities may include any suitable convertible instruments such as convertible bonds, convertible notes or convertible preference shares.

By actively managing the fund and investing in convertible securities, the investment manager seeks the opportunity to participate in the capital appreciation of underlying stocks, while at the same time relying on the fixed income aspect of the convertible securities to provide current income and reduced price volatility, which can limit the risk of loss in a down equity market.

Class I USD          LU2264533006

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Disclaimer:
The information and any opinions have been obtained from or are based on sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No responsibility can be accepted for any consequential loss arising from the use of this information. The information is expressed at its date and is issued only to and directed only at those individuals who are permitted to receive such information in accordance with the applicable statutes. In some countries the distribution of this publication may be restricted. It is your responsibility to find out what those restrictions are and observe them.

Some of the statements in this presentation may contain or be based on forward looking statements, forecasts, estimates, projections, targets, or prognosis (“forward looking statements”), which reflect the manager’s current view of future events, economic developments and financial performance. Such forward looking statements are typically indicated by the use of words which express an estimate, expectation, belief, target or forecast. Such forward looking statements are based on an assessment of historical economic data, on the experience and current plans of the investment manager and/or certain advisors of the manager, and on the indicated sources. These forward looking statements contain no representation or warranty of whatever kind that such future events will occur or that they will occur as described herein, or that such results will be achieved by the fund or the investments of the fund, as the occurrence of these events and the results of the fund are subject to various risks and uncertainties. The actual portfolio, and thus results, of the fund may differ substantially from those assumed in the forward looking statements. The manager and its affiliates will not undertake to update or review the forward looking statements contained in this presentation, whether as result of new information or any future event or otherwise.

Protein Capital Lands in the U.S., Opening Its First Office in Miami

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Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. Protein Capital desembarca en Estados Unidos y abre su primera oficina en Miami

Protein Capital will establish its first office in the United States. As announced a month ago, this opening responds to the company’s expansion plans through which it expects to reach its target of 30 million euros (33.75 million dollars) by 2021.

The company has revealed in a press release that its interest in entering the North American country lies in the fact that it is the main market for this type of funds. Of the 397 in the world, 66.44% are in the United States, where Miami is becoming the most important crypto hub worldwide. In addition, Protein Capital believes the city is an ideal focus for “attracting talent and creating a high-level professional team”.

Due to the new opening, Alberto Gordo, CEO, traveled to the country to meet with the team of the new office and participate in the presentation event of Protein Capital Fund.

Protein Capital is the first hedge fund with 100% Spanish capital dedicated to digital assets. Founded in February 2021, it currently manages a €15 million fund through its offices in Madrid, Luxembourg and Miami.

Globally 90% of Companies either Raised Their Dividends or Held Them Steady Year-on-Year

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Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. El 90% de las compañías a nivel mundial han aumentado o mantenido sus dividendos en los últimos 12 meses

Global dividends are rapidly recovering from the pandemic, according to the latest Janus Henderson Global Dividend Index. Thanks to rising profits and strong balance sheets, in the third quarter of 2021 payouts rose at a record pace of 22% year-on-year on an underlying basis to deliver an all-time high for the quarter of 403.5 billion dollars. The total was up 19.5% on a headline basis.

Janus Henderson revealed that its index of dividends is now just 2% below its pre-pandemic peak in the first quarter of 2020. Globally, 90% of companies either raised their dividends or held them steady, which, in the firm’s view, is one of the strongest readings since the Index began and reflects “the rapid normalisation of dividend patterns as the global recovery continues”.

The exceptional strength of Q3 payout figures, along with improved prospects for Q4, have led the asset manager to upgrade its forecast for the full year. It now expects growth of 15.6% on a headline basis, taking 2021 payouts to a new record of 1.46 trillion dollars. Janus Henderson anticipates that global dividends will have recovered in just nine months from their mid-pandemic low point in the year to the end of March 2021. Underlying growth is expected to be 13.6% for 2021.

The most relevant sectors and markets 

The analysis shows that soaring commodity prices resulted in record profits for many mining companies; more than two thirds of the year-on-year growth in global payouts in Q3 came from this sector. Three quarters of mining companies in Janus Henderson’s index at least doubled their dividends compared to Q3 2020. “The sector delivered an extraordinary 54.1 billion dollars of dividends in Q3, more in a single quarter than the previous full-year record set in 2019.  BHP will be the world’s biggest dividend payer in 2021″, said the firm.

The banking sector also made a significant contribution, mainly because many regulators have lifted restrictions on payouts and because loan impairments have been lower than expected.

The index also highlights that geographies that had seen the steepest cuts in 2020 and those most exposed to the mining boom or to the restoration of banking dividends saw a rapid recovery. Australia and the UK were the biggest beneficiaries of both of these trends. Europe, parts of Asia and emerging markets also saw large increases on an underlying basis.

Those parts of the world, like Japan and the US, where companies did not cut much in 2020 naturally showed less growth than the global average. Nevertheless, US company dividends rose by a tenth to a new Q3 record. A strong Q3 means Chinese companies are also on track to deliver record payouts in 2021.

Three important things changed during the third quarter. First and most importantly, mining companies all around the world have benefited from sky-high commodity prices. Many of them delivered record results and dividends followed suit. Secondly, banks took quick advantage of the relaxation of limits on dividends and restored payouts to a higher level than seemed possible even a few months ago. And finally, the first few companies in the US to start the annual dividend reset showed that businesses there are keen to return cash to shareholders”, commented Jane Shoemake, Client Portfolio Manager on the Global Equity Income Team.

In her view, a big driver for 2022 will be the ongoing restoration of banking dividends, but it seems unlikely that mining companies can sustain this level of payouts given their reliance on volatile underlying commodity prices: some of these have already fallen. “Miners are therefore likely to provide a headwind for global dividend growth next year”, she added.

Implications for portfolio allocations

Ben Lofthouse, Head of Global Equity Income at Janus Henderson, pointed out that dividends are recovering more quickly than expected, driven by improving corporate balance sheets, and increased optimism about the future. “Two of the most impacted sectors last year were the commodity and financial sectors, and the report highlights that these sectors have been the most significant driver of dividend growth during the period covered. We have added to these sectors over the last year, and it is great to see shareholders being rewarded by increased distributions”, he said.

Jupiter AM Names Matthew Beesley as New CIO

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Jupiter AM nuevo CIO
Foto cedidaMatthew Beesley, nuevo CIO de Jupiter AM. . Jupiter AM incorpora a Matthew Beesley como nuevo CIO

Jupiter AM has announced the appointment of Matthew Beesley as Chief Investment Officer (CIO), succeeding Stephen Pearson who is retiring following a 35-year career in the industry including nearly two decades at Jupiter. He will join the company in January 2022.

The asset manager has revealed in a press release that Beesley will initially work closely with Pearson to ensure a seamless handover. Besides, he will report to CEO Andrew Formica and join the Executive Committee. In his new role, he will have overall responsibility for the management of all of Jupiter’s investment professionals and strategies across equities, fixed income and multi-asset.

Supported by Jupiter’s eight-strong CIO office, “he will also have oversight of the associated functions that form the backbone of the company’s investment process”, including its dedicated stewardship, data science, dealing and performance analysis teams.

“The role of CIO is crucially important to the delivery of our strategic objectives through the guardianship of our dynamic, actively-driven investment culture at Jupiter. The fact that we have attracted a high calibre individual such as Matt is a testament to our talented fund management team and the enduring appeal of the Jupiter brand to an increasingly diverse global client base”, commented Formica.

In his view, Beesley shares their commitment to actively-driven returns and has “a well-deserved reputation” for being an “effective and inspiring” leader: “We are confident that, under Matt’s leadership, we will continue to deliver the strong investment results for our clients that is a hallmark of Jupiter”.

With nearly 25 years of experience in the investment industry, Beesley joins Jupiter from Artemis, where he has been CIO since April 2020. Prior to this, he was Head of Investments at GAM Investments from 2017 to 2020, where he was responsible for the management and oversight of its investment strategies managed by teams based in Europe, Asia and the US. Beesley has also been Head of Global Equities at Henderson, responsible for a team managing significant assets in global, international (World ex US) and Global Socially Responsible investment strategies.  

Beesley claimed to be “excited” to take up the mantle from Pearson as the business develops, grows and adapts, to ensure they continue to meet clients’ needs “and deliver the superior investment performance that Jupiter is known for.”

Stagflation?

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Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. mundo

Production losses and rising commodity, energy and logistics costs are dampening economic growth and could lead to increased bankruptcies among companies with low earnings. Emerging markets such as India and Cambodia are also increasingly suffering from energy shortages and dramatic price increases. More than 50 per cent of energy production is based on coal, whose price has skyrocketed. Developing new deposits takes a long time and is politically undesirable. Inventories are empty and in addition to hitting the economy of the region, the power shortages that are expected would also worsen global supply-chain problems.

To what extent these losses can be compensated by higher prices depends on the structure of the economy. Net exporters of energy and commodities (e.g. Russia) currently have the advantage over net importers (e.g. Germany). Energy- and commodityhungry China will also likely see a decline in growth. September saw the first decrease in manufacturing activity since the beginning of the pandemic, due to production losses caused by the shortage of electricity in many parts of the country.

There are also signs of a crisis in the Chinese real estate market, where the difficulties of China’s largest real-estate developer Evergrande are causing unrest. The company has more than EUR 250 billion in liabilities, with bonds and bank loans accounting for around 30 per cent of this amount. The largest share is for liabilities to customers and suppliers, i.e. construction companies. It is common practice for property buyers to make advance payments for properties that are still under construction. A collapse of the company would therefore not only affect shareholders, bondholders and lending banks, but also property buyers and suppliers. The situation could become especially precarious if real-estate prices were to fall across a broad front, thereby causing difficulties for other real-estate companies. Given the great importance of the real-estate sector, which economists Kenneth Rogoff and Yuanchen Yang calculate contributes 29 per cent of China’s economic output, and real-estate assets that represent around two thirds of the total assets of Chinese households, a collapse in prices would have serious consequences for the Chinese economy.

The crisis, however, also reveals the structural weakness of the Chinese economy. Credit-financed investments in unproductive residential towers caused private household debt to grow strongly and inflated bank balance sheets. Since the financial crisis in 2008, total debt (private households, companies, government) has grown significantly faster than the growth rate of the economy (see Figure 1).

Fuente Flossbach von Storch

More and more yuan of additional debt must be incurred for each yuan of additional growth. This model has now reached its limits. The Chinese government is aware of this and Xi Jinping’s call to “strive for real and not excessive growth” may be taken as an indication that other areas of the economy, such as consumption and technology investment, will take priority in the future.

The Evergrande case will likely also make an example of the widespread problem of moral hazard, since a rescue of all interest groups is not expected. Ultimately, the Chinese state banks will work with the central bank and government to manage the crisis in a way that avoids social unrest in order to maintain the legitimacy of the leadership. Shareholders and bondholders will probably go away emptyhanded. It is exaggerated, however, to compare this to the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy and subsequent financial crisis, since there are practically no loans with parties abroad. The expected slowdown in the Chinese real-estate market will nevertheless also have a negative effect on global economic growth.

Given the strong growth in the USA, however, it would be premature to talk of global “stagflation”. This term, which was coined in the seventies, describes the simultaneous combination of falling or stagnant economic output and rising prices. At that time, an oil embargo by Arab exporters caused the price of oil to increase from three to 12 dollars within a year. Inflation rose to 12 per cent in the USA in 1974, while real growth was minus 0.5 per cent and remained below zero in 1975 (see Figure 2).

Fuente Flossbach von Storch

Although the current situation is not comparable to the seventies, a new inflation regime could become established if the inflation bump continues longer and leads to higher inflation expectations.

So-called second-round effects, in particular higher wage demands in future collective bargaining, will play a role in this. Even if the inflation bump has already receded again by then, the unions will not simply forget the increase in inflation this year but will instead demand extra compensation. This would increase the inflation base.

There are also structural factors that are likely to lead to a higher level of inflation in the long term: deglobalisation, decarbonisation and demographics.

Deglobalisation: Supply-chain problems are causing companies to distribute their production facilities more broadly and, in some cases, renationalise them. However, choosing resilience instead of efficiency also increases costs.

Decarbonisation: Climate protection is not without cost. This is politically intended. In addition to significantly increasing CO2 prices, which will have a direct effect on consumer wallets (electricity, petrol, natural gas), the energy transition will also increase production costs, which will indirectly lead to higher consumer prices.

Demographics: The Baby Boomers will retire in coming years, thereby further worsening the already noticeable shortage of skilled workers. This will drive up labour costs. A growing number of older people who are no longer working will increase the costs of health and pension insurance, therefore also increasing labour costs.

A column by Bert Flossbach, cofounder at Flossbach von Storch

Mariano Belinky Joins Motive Partners as Industry Partner

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Mariano Belinky CEO Santander AM
Foto cedidaMariano Belinky, Ex-CEO de Santander AM. . Mariano Belinky ficha por Motive Partners como industry partner

The private equity firm Motive Partners, focused on financial technology, has announced the appointment of Mariano Belinky as an Industry Partner. The company has revealed in a press release that he will focus on areas that bring “strategic value” to its investment mandate.

Based primarily in the London offices, Belinky will focus on originating and diligencing transactions across financial technology, seeking to spot trends ahead of time, and sourcing deals and capabilities that can support the growth of Motive’s portfolio companies.

Motive Partners believes the adoption of new digital channels, innovative processes and game-changing technologies “will yield value-creating opportunities for forward-thinking alternative investment firms“. This appointment demonstrates its intent to continue building capabilities to support its platform’s mission of outsized returns, focusing on operator and innovator led value creation.

“We believe technology has the ability to unlock huge value for investment firms. All aspects will evolve, from how we invest to how we interact with our portfolio companies and clients”, commented Rob Heyvaert, Founder & Managing Partner at Motive Partners. In this sense, through Motive Create and Belinky’s appointment, they are seeking to extend their edge, as they “weaponize financial technology ideas” to empower their operations and portfolio companies by embedding these new financial capabilities to transform operations and gain scale. 

Meanwhile, Belinky claimed to be “extremely excited” to join the firm and contribute to further accelerate its growth and those of its portfolio companies. “Fintech has reached a maturity point as an industry, and I believe Motive as a platform is uniquely positioned to capture the immense opportunities the space has created. I’m looking forward to joining forces with a terrific team of Investors, Operations and Innovators to make it happen”, he added.

Prior to joining Motive Partners, Belinky was the Global CEO of Santander Asset Management where he led the turnaround of the company since its re-acquisition from Warburg Pincus and General Atlantic. Prior to this, he co-founded and ran InnoVentures, Santander Group’s $400m fintech-focused global venture capital fund. Belinky has also been a junior partner with McKinsey and Company, where he advised global banks and asset managers across Europe and the Americas, and he was previously part of the research technology team at Bridgewater Associates.

Decarbonization: How to Transform the Cost of Inaction Into Investment and Economic Growth

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Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. Descarbonización: el coste de pasar de la inacción a la inversión y al crecimiento económico

The first week of COP26 has yielded some positive announcements about decarbonization, reducing methane emissions and access to clean energy by 2030. However, the success of this summit will be determined by the levels of commitment, policies and financing that are mobilized.

In the opinion of Eva Cairns, Head of Climate Change of abrdn, hardly any clear action plans to achieve the objectives have been detailed and there are no legally binding implementation mechanisms. “We need action plans to halve emissions by 2030 and not just offer vague long-term ambitions. This also applies to the 130 billion dollars promised by the financial community on Financing Day to reach the zero emissions target by 2050. Discussions on the climate financing promise of $100 billion for the developing world are underway and are expected to be fulfilled by 2022 based on Japan’s increased commitment. Much more is needed to reflect the obligation of the developed world to help mitigation and adaptation in the developing world,” warns Cairns.

Moving from general objectives to concrete actions because, according to Bank of America, inaction also has a high cost. In one of its latest research, the form argues that climate change is not an abstract problem but affects the world economy mainly through storms, floods, droughts and sea level rise. “There are also indications that climate change and its reduction play a role in the recent rise in energy prices. Given the prospects for regulation, investment in dirty energy capacity is likely to be low and dependent on high prices. Meanwhile, green energy is not increasing fast enough to fill the void. Changes in wind and rain patterns seem to have affected the supply of wind and hydraulic energy, while China has imposed restrictions on emissions from power plants, causing shortages of electricity. All this underscores the importance of making the transition well. In fact, some economists consider carbon taxes to be one of the most effective ways to promote a more natural transition,” the firm says.

In fact, it is estimated that the potential impact of not acting could mean a loss of more than 3% of GDP each year until 2030, which would increase to $69 trillion in 2100; and a loss of 5% of the value of the global stock market ($2.3 trillion) permanently eliminated by the revaluation of climate policy, with a potentially extreme impact on the profits of companies in certain sectors.

If inaction has a cost, the energy transition that leads economies to achieve zero net emissions and decarbonize their production systems also has a cost. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that achieving zero emissions will cost $150 trillion over the next 30 years, or 5 trillion annually. But BloombergNEF (BNEF) raises the figure to 174 trillion dollars or 5.8 trillion a year, that is, about three times the current investment received by the energy system.

“Most of this item will go to the electrification of various human activities and the electricity system (between 3 and 5 trillion a year until 2030), while hydrogen will gain ground until 2040/50 (0.5 trillion annually). The decarbonization of non-energy emissions, such as agriculture and land use, will need even more capital. This will require job mobility between sectors, which can be a challenge given the requirements to retrain employees and the challenges of labor supply in the short term, which can lengthen the transition,” Bank of America clarifies.

All this investment could be an opportunity to boost employment and GDP. But, according to Bank of America, climate change studies focus on the wrong side of the economy: the impact on aggregate demand and not on productive capacity. “For example, the latest IEA report argues that moving towards zero net emissions would reduce employment in the traditional energy sector by 5 million people by 2030, but would add 14 million jobs in the clean energy sector,” the firm explains. These reports argue that “the increase in jobs and investment stimulates economic production, which translates into a net increase in world GDP until 2030.” World GDP growth is, on average, 0.4% higher in the period from 2020 to 2030.

The drawback would be that inflation could be between 1% and 3% higher, according to the IEA. Bank of America experts disagree, as they believe that by the time climate change mitigation efforts are underway, the world economy will probably be close to full employment, as is likely to be the case in the United States. Therefore, “to staff the industry means removing workers from the rest of the economy. At the same time, the construction of green energy infrastructure will require more than double the investment in the sector, from approximately 2% of current GDP to an average of 4.5% in the period 2020-2030. In addition, in the long term, although this transformation offers opportunities, accelerating the transition to a low-carbon economy too fast could harm growth, closing sectors at the expense of others and competing for resources when the economy is close to full employment,” they explain.

In the short term, central banks could accommodate the increase in demand, allowing their economies to overheat. Hence the estimate of the IEA in the increase in inflation. However, Bank of America experts also do not agree with that estimate: “If the Federal Reserve allows the economic potential to be permanently overcome, inflation will not only increase, but could take an upward trend. As in the 1970s, there will be a feedback loop between price inflation, wage inflation and price expectations,” they explain.

Driving decarbonization

All experts and analysts agree that the holding of COP26 is a unique opportunity to delve into these reflections and draw up coordinated plans to achieve decarbonization. This is the topic of the latest report by Goldman Sachs Investment Research, which identifies five questions of interest to be addressed at this conference.

  • Carbon pricing: It is a key instrument for decarbonization, but it also has to be a fair instrument, which prevents carbon leakage and provides greater confidence and transparency for voluntary compensation. According to the entity, the reduction of carbon emissions alone is unlikely to achieve Net Zero’s ambition for carbon by 2050. “We believe that carbon offsets are a crucial driver for carbon elimination through nature-based solutions and direct carbon capture, contributing about 15% to the decarbonization of emissions from the most difficult sectors to debate by 2050. We believe that discussions around higher standards, greater supervision and better liquidity of voluntary carbon credits worldwide could contribute to creating an efficient path to zero net carbon,” they explain.
  • Consumer choice: Governments could impose the disclosure of the carbon footprint in products/services and set standards in a coordinated manner at the global level, which would allow consumers to choose low-carbon products and manage their carbon budgets. In his opinion, “it is a missed opportunity to take advantage of consumer pressure on global companies to decarbonize their value chain, finance carbon offsets and aspire to a zero net carbon label.”
  • Capital market pressure: According to his report, the ESG boom is pushing capital towards decarbonization, but regulatory uncertainty and lack of global coordination are generating structural underinvestment in the key sectors of materials, oil and gas and heavy transport, which increases price inflation and concern for affordability.
  • Net Zero: Net Zero’s national commitments and further carbon reductions by 2030 will be at the center of intergovernmental discussions. “We have modeled two paths to Zero Net Carbon by sector and technology, and we see the importance of clean technology ecosystems, including renewable energy, batteries, hydrogen, carbon capture and the circular economy,” he argues.
  • Technological innovation: In their 1.5° C scenario, they estimate that $56 trillion in investments in green infrastructure is needed to reach the Zero Net Carbon target by 2050, which represents approximately 2.3% of world GDP at its peak.

Tikehau Capital Appoints John Fraser as Partner and Chairman of its Global Structured Credit Strategies

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Tikehau
Foto cedidaJohn Fraser, responsable de Crédito Estructurado Global de Tikehau Capital.. Tikehau Capital nombra a John Fraser socio y presidente de sus estrategias globales de crédito estructurado

Tikehau Capital has announced the appointment of John Fraser as Chairman of its Global Structured Credit strategies, based in New York. In a press release, the firm has highlighted that the designation reinforces its commitment to its CLO business and supports its expansion into the US market.

In this newly created role, Fraser will advise senior Tikehau Capital team members in growing the firm’s existing structured credit businesses including its U.S. and European CLO platforms. He will also help develop and launch new business lines within the structured credit space. His entrepreneurial and institutional experience will support Tikehau Capital Structured Credit and overall company brand building and product marketing including interaction with investors.

Since the creation of its CLO business in 2014, Tikehau Capital has a proven track-record in the structured credit space, in particular through the completion of over 2 billion euros (2.31 billion dollars) in new issuance across five CLOs in Europe and the launch of its first CLO in North America in September 2021.

“We are delighted to welcome John in Tikehau Capital’s teams as we continue to build on the success of our European CLO and Structured Credit strategies in order to expand our offering into the US market. John brings a unique and rare combined entrepreneurial and institutional journey and deep CLO expertise, and we look forward to leveraging his experience as we grow to meet investors’ evolving needs”, said Mathieu Chabran, co-founder of Tikehau Capital.

Fraser brings 30 years of experience in the CLO business. He joins from Investcorp where he was an independent member of its Board of Directors since 2019. Most recently, he was managing director and head of Investcorp’s U.S. credit business, where he was responsible for managing all aspects of U.S. loan-focused credit investments including portfolio management, fund raising, and operations.

From 2012 to 2017, he was managing partner and CIO of 3i Debt Management US LLC. In 2005, he founded Fraser Sullivan Investment Management, LLC, which was subsequently sold to 3i Group. Fraser also previously held management positions with Angelo Gordon, Continental Bank, Merrill Lynch Asset Management and Chase Manhattan Bank North America.

Fraser claimed to be excited to join Tikehau Capital’s team. “The firm’s prospects for growth in the U.S. and global credit markets are impressive, supported by a respected global brand, talented and committed people, an expanding international investor base and its willingness to use balance sheet resources to back new initiatives. I look forward to being part of and adding to the future success of Tikehau Capital”, he added.

Columbia Threadneedle Investments Confirms Completion of the Acquisition of BMO’s EMEA Asset Management Business

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Foto cedidaNick Ring, consejero delegado para EMEA de Columbia Threadneedle.. Columbia Threadneedle Investments confirma el cierre de la adquisición del negocio de gestión de activos en EMEA de BMO

Last April, Columbia Threadneedle Investments announced the acquisition of Bank of Montreal’s EMEA asset management business (BMO GAM EMEA). Seven months later, the transaction has now been completed and adds 131 billion dollars to Columbia Threadneedle to bring total assets under management to 714 billion dollars.

In a press release, the asset manager has revealed that the acquisition enables them to build further strength and capability in areas of increasing prominence in the European and global asset management landscape, such as responsible investment. Both firms “combine complementary strengths to create a world class RI capability based on creating value through research intensity, driving real-world change through active ownership, and partnering with clients to deliver innovative solutions”, they say. Together, they manage total assets of 49 billion dollars in RI funds and strategies across asset classes.

Another area that has been reinforced with this transaction is alternatives, since they have established a global business of more than 47 billion dollars, including real estate in the UK, Europe and the US, infrastructure, private equity and hedge fund offerings. Columbia Threadneedle believes that they are now “well set to respond to increasing demand from clients for less liquid, diversifying assets both as standalone strategies and within bespoke solutions”.

Lastly, they have strengthened their capacity of offering investment solutions. Columbia Threadneedle has longstanding relationships with large and complex clients delivering regulatory sensitive portfolios (such as Solvency II and Basel III) for insurance companies and banks as well as customised solutions for sub-advisory partners, while BMO GAM (EMEA) has a top four LDI business in Europe as well as an established fiduciary management business. “Together our Solutions business represents the point of entry of more than 200 billion dollars of client assets, or almost 30% of our expanded AUM”, the asset manager points out. 

The acquisition also adds the BMO GAM (EMEA) managed investment trusts and its established multimanager range to Columbia Threadneedle’s offering. Separately, the transaction will result in certain BMO US asset management clients moving to Columbia Threadneedle, at a later date subject to client consent.

“This strategically important acquisition accelerates our growth in the EMEA region and secures our position as a significant global asset manager. Our established strengths in core asset classes and our strong, long-term performance track record are complemented by key strategic capabilities that improve our ability to meet the evolving needs of our clients”, commented Nick Ring, CEO, EMEA, at Columbia Threadneedle.

He also highlighted that their combined team of more than 2,500 people share a client-centric culture, a collaborative and research-based investment approach, and a long-held commitment to responsible investment principles. “Together, we look forward to embracing our role as active investors to drive change, deliver client outcomes and continue to make our own contribution to a sustainable future”, he concluded.

Top 500 Managers See Assets Hit 119.5 Trillion Dollars

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Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. Las 500 mayores gestoras del mundo alcanzan los 119,5 billones de dólares en activos gestionados

Assets under management (AuM) at the world’s 500 largest asset managers have reached a new record of 119.5 trillion dollars, according to a new research from the Thinking Ahead Institute. This represents an increase of 14.5% on the previous year when total AuM was 104.4 trillion dollars.

The study, conducted in conjunction with Pensions & Investments, a leading U.S. investment newspaper, confirms growing concentration among the top 20 managers whose market share increased during the period to 44% of total assets. Of the top 500 managers, 221 names which featured on the list a decade ago in 2011 are now absent in 2021, demonstrating a quickening pace of competition, consolidation and rebranding.

The chart shows that Blackrock has retained its position as the largest asset manager in the ranking, followed by Vanguard holding its second place position for the seventh consecutive year. Of the top 20, 14 are U.S. managers, accounting for 78.6% of the top 20 AUM.

AUM

On the whole, passive investments represent 26%, an increase of 16.2% compared to a 15.4% growth in actively managed AUM. According to the research, passively-managed assets under management among the largest firms grew to a total of 8.3 trillion dollars in 2020, up from 4.8 trillion in 2016.

It also shows that asset managers have been addressing the growing demand from more sophisticated asset owners, for more complex and tailored investment solutions. Outsourced CIO, Total Portfolio Approach (TPA) and ETFs have all been popular sources of growth for the world’s top managers, to meet clients’ increasing requirements for returns.

“We have witnessed unprecedented change within the investment industry – accelerated dramatically by the pandemic. In particular, sustainability is no longer just a luxury for some firms. Instead, during the pandemic, asset managers from all corners of the world have became even more aware of the interconnectedness of the financial system with society and the environment”, commented Roger Urwin, co-founder of the Thinking Ahead Institute.

In his opinion, asset managers have always had the ambition to develop and innovate: “We have seen this particularly with ESG mandates, which increased by 40% in 2020. The biggest contributor to this was the growth in ESG ETFs”.

Main trends

Among other trends, the research also found that half of managers increased the proportion of minorities and women in top positions, over the course of the last year and that client interest in sustainable investing increased across 91% of the firms surveyed. Besides, 78% of managers increased resources deployed to technology and big data and 66% increased resources deployed to cyber security. 

The number of product offerings increased for 70% of surveyed firms, and aggregate investment management fee levels decreased for 25% but fee levels increased for 21%. Lastly, a majority of managers (59%) experienced an increase in the level of regulatory oversight.