Is there a financial instrument that protects investors in the face of rising inflation?

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In a period such as the current one, where there are high levels of uncertainty with a latent recession, investors are searching for financial instruments that provide above-average returns but with protection against market volatility.

 

At the end of January of this year, inflation stood at an annual rate of 6.4%, higher than expected and only slightly below the previous month’s rate, 6.5%, which confirms the slowdown in the rise of prices. However, not at the desired rate, so the Federal Reserve has yet to rule out the possibility of continuing to raise rates. Nonetheless, this may be lower since continuing to push with moderate levels could trigger the U.S. to enter a recession.

 

According to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), structured notes are securities issued by financial institutions whose returns are based on, among other things, equity indexes, a single equity security, a basket of equity securities, interest rates, commodities, and/or foreign currencies. Thus, your return is “linked” to the performance of a reference asset or index. Structured notes have a fixed maturity and include two components – a bond component and an embedded derivative.

 

Structured notes were introduced in the United States in the early 1980s and gained notoriety in the mid-1990s as a result of the crisis generated in the fixed-income markets during 1994, when the Fed raised interest rates by 250 basis points, generating heavy losses for fund managers with positions in structured notes issued by agencies.

 

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, around US$73 billion in structured notes had been issued in the U.S. as of November of last year, getting very close to the record of US$100 billion in 2021.

 

According to Monex, structured products are generally created to meet specific investor needs that cannot be met with standardized financial instruments available in the markets.

 

Typically, structured notes are used by different market participants as:

 

– an alternative to direct investment

– a part of the overall asset allocation

– a risk reduction strategy in a portfolio

 

Just as stocks and bonds serve as essential components in the foundation of a well-diversified portfolio, structured note investments can be added to an investor’s portfolio to address a particular objective within an investment plan.

 

During periods of inflation, investors are turning to structured notes as a financial instrument to obtain above-average results thanks to the combination of elements of both fixed and variable investments, i.e., if used correctly, this instrument can offer specific protection against a downfall in the assets in which it invests. 

 

For the above reasons, using structured products as investment vehicles provides a possible system for regulating risk exposure, making it possible to adapt it to the investor’s profile, considering their profitability objectives.

 

An investment vehicle is a mechanism by which investors obtain returns; structured notes can be cataloged as one since they are hybrid investment instruments that allow the design of a tailor-made portfolio, which can have guaranteed capital.

 

Some specialists believe structured notes in uncertain conditions can improve the risk-return ratio since they can encompass many assets. This instrument also facilitates access to specific markets or financial assets that do not have sufficient transparency, liquidity, or accessibility.

 

How to do it in 5 simple steps:

 

At FlexFunds, we are specialists in the setup and issuance of investment vehicles through exchange-listed products (ETPs), for which we have designed a 5-step process that simplifies it:

 

Step 1. Customized assessment and design of the ETP:

A detailed study and data collection of the desired investment strategy is carried out.

 

Step 2. Due diligence and signing of the engagement letter:

Once the product structure is defined, the client’s due diligence is performed, and the process continues with signing the engagement letter. 

 

Step 3. ETP structuring:

The portfolio manager’s onboarding is performed in this step, and the essential documents, such as the “series memorandum,” are reviewed.

 

Step 4. Issuance and listing of the ETP:

The investment strategy is repackaged as a bankable asset thanks to generating an ISIN code that facilitates its distribution.

 

Step 5. The ETP is ready for trading through Euroclear:

Investors can access the ETP through their existing brokerage accounts from many custodians and private banking platforms.

 

Thanks to the features of instruments such as structured notes, FlexFunds can offer innovative, customized solutions that can allow you to diversify your investment portfolio and facilitate access to international investors.

 

Emilio Veiga Gil, Executive Vice President, FlexFunds 

 

Some Conclusions From Markets Behaviour in October

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U.S. equities rebounded in October, with the S&P recording its second-best monthly performance for the year. This month saw the kickoff of Q3 earnings with over half of the S&P 500 companies having reported through 10/28. Takeaways from the first few weeks of earnings included FX headwinds, continued supply chain disruptions, still-elevated raw materials costs and fears of a weakening macro backdrop. However, credit card companies and banks reiterated that consumer spending continued to show signs of resilience despite surging inflation.

Several catalysts will be in focus as potential drivers to push markets higher before year-end, such as an inflection point in the Russia-Ukraine war, U.S. midterm elections or inflation data indicating that prices are no longer rising.

Performance in the Merger Arbitrage space in October was driven by the closing of several deals, most notably Elon Musk’s $44 billion acquisition of Twitter, Berkshire Hathaway’s $12 billion acquisition of Alleghany, and Vista Equity’s $8bn acquisition of Avalara.  The strategy also benefitted from a bump in consideration in two transactions. Philip Morris raised its offer for Swedish Match from SEK 106 to SEK 116 per share in order to secure enough shareholder support to complete the transaction. Additionally, Flagstar Bancorp shareholders received an increase in terms of $2.50 per share, which was paid as a special dividend, as they awaited the final regulatory approvals needed to complete the merger with New York Community Bancorp.

For the convertibles market, the fourth quarter on a positive note after a very negative year. Sentiment was quite low coming into earnings season and the result has been generally positive. We had numerous holdings outperform significantly after beating what were admittedly low expectations. We also had a few surprises to the downside as some companies guided cautiously. Premium expansion as stocks moved lower helped limit some of the downside we saw relative to the underlying equities. This is a key attribute of convertibles as it helps to provide asymmetrical returns.

Franklin Templeton Completes Acquisition of Alcentra

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Franklin Resources, Inc., a global investment management organization operating as Franklin Templeton, announced the completion of its acquisition of BNY Alcentra Group Holdings, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, “Alcentra”) from The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (“BNY Mellon”).

Alcentra is an European credit and private debt managers with $35 billion in assets under management as of September 30, 2022 and has global expertise in senior secured loans, high yield bonds, private credit, structured credit, special situations and multi-strategy credit strategies.

With this closing, Franklin Templeton’s U.S. alternative credit specialist investment manager, Benefit Street Partners (“BSP”), expands its capabilities and presence in Europe, nearly doubling its AUM to $75 billion globally, and increases the breadth and scale of Franklin Templeton’s alternative asset strategies to $260 billion in aggregate, as of September 30, 2022.

Alternative asset management is a priority for the firm, as investors are allocating more capital across the full spectrum of strategies.

In addition to alternative credit through BSP and Alcentra, Franklin Templeton’s alternative asset strategies include specialist investment managers focused on private real estate through Clarion Partners, global secondary private equity and co-investments via Lexington Partners, hedge fund strategies via K2 Advisors and venture capital through Franklin Venture Partners.

Founded in 2002, Alcentra employs a disciplined, value-oriented approach to evaluating individual investments and constructing portfolios across its investment strategies on behalf of more than 500 institutional investors. Alcentra’s dedicated and highly experienced team is based in its London headquarters, as well as in New York and Boston.

In connection with this transaction, there will be no change to Alcentra’s brand in Europe or Alcentra’s investment strategies.

SEC Charges 16 Wall Street Firms with Widespread Recordkeeping Failures

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The Securities and Exchange Commission announced charges against 15 broker-dealers and one affiliated investment adviser for widespread and longstanding failures by the firms and their employees to maintain and preserve electronic communications.

The firms admitted the facts set forth in their respective SEC orders, acknowledged that their conduct violated recordkeeping provisions of the federal securities laws, agreed to pay combined penalties of more than $1.1 billion, and have begun implementing improvements to their compliance policies and procedures to settle these matters.

“Finance, ultimately, depends on trust. By failing to honor their recordkeeping and books-and-records obligations, the market participants we have charged today have failed to maintain that trust,” said SEC Chair Gary Gensler.

The SEC staff’s investigation uncovered pervasive off-channel communications. The firms cooperated with the investigation by gathering communications from the personal devices of a sample of the firms’ personnel. These personnel included senior and junior investment bankers and debt and equity traders.

From January 2018 through September 2021, the firms’ employees routinely communicated about business matters using text messaging applications on their personal devices. The firms did not maintain or preserve the substantial majority of these off-channel communications, in violation of the federal securities laws.

By failing to maintain and preserve required records relating to their businesses, the firms’ actions likely deprived the Commission of these off-channel communications in various Commission investigations. The failings occurred across all of the 16 firms and involved employees at multiple levels of authority, including supervisors and senior executives.

  • The following eight firms (and five affiliates) have agreed to pay penalties of $125 million each:
    • Barclays Capital Inc.;
    • BofA Securities Inc. together with Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Inc.;
    • Citigroup Global Markets Inc.;
    • Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC;
    • Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. together with DWS Distributors Inc. and DWS Investment Management Americas, Inc.;
    • Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC;
    • Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC together with Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC; and
    • UBS Securities LLC together with UBS Financial Services Inc.
  • The following two firms have agreed to pay penalties of $50 million each:
    • Jefferies LLC; and
    • Nomura Securities International, Inc.
  • Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. has agreed to pay a $10 million penalty.

Each of the 15 broker-dealers was charged with violating certain recordkeeping provisions of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and with failing reasonably to supervise with a view to preventing and detecting those violations. DWS Investment Management Americas, Inc., the investment adviser, was charged with violating certain recordkeeping provisions of the Investment Advisers of 1940 and with failing reasonably to supervise with a view to preventing and detecting those violations.

In addition to the significant financial penalties, each of the firms was ordered to cease and desist from future violations of the relevant recordkeeping provisions and were censured.

The firms also agreed to retain compliance consultants to, among other things, conduct comprehensive reviews of their policies and procedures relating to the retention of electronic communications found on personal devices and their respective frameworks for addressing non-compliance by their employees with those policies and procedures.

Yie-Hsin Hung Named President & CEO of State Street Global Advisors

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Photo courtesyYie-Hsin Hung, President and CEO of State Street Global Advisors

State Street Corporation announced that it has appointed Yie-Hsin Hung as president and chief executive officer (CEO) of State Street Global Advisors (Global Advisors), its asset management business.

Hung succeeds Cyrus Taraporevala, whose planned retirement was announced earlier this year. She will join Global Advisors in December 2022, reporting to State Street Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Ron O’Hanley and will join State Street’s Executive Committee.

Hung joins Global Advisors from New York Life Investment Management (NYLIM), where she served as chief executive officer since 2015. While at NYLIM, Yie-Hsin led a multi-boutique, global investment management business that provides a broad range of fixed income, alternatives, equity and ESG capabilities.

During her tenure at the firm, Hung led NYLIM to achieve a nearly four-fold increase in assets under management. Prior to assuming the role of CEO of NYLIM, Hung held numerous senior executive roles including co-president and chairman of NYLIM International. Before joining NYLIM, she held leadership positions at Bridgewater Associates and Morgan Stanley.

“We are delighted to welcome Yie-Hsin to State Street. She is an industry veteran, who brings to Global Advisors her notable history of delivering growth,” said O’Hanley. “Her career has been impressive, successfully delivering strong results as she expanded NYLIM’s investment capabilities, entered new markets and strengthened the business’ data and technology infrastructure. She also brings a true commitment to fostering a culture of inclusion, collaboration and product innovation.”

“I am excited to join State Street Global Advisors, an organization and leadership team that I have had the opportunity to work with at various points over my career,” said Hung. “It is a pivotal time in the asset management industry, and I look forward to building on the strong foundation at Global Advisors to continue to drive growth and help prepare our clients for the future.”

In 2022, Hung was named to Barron’s list of the 100 Most Influential Women in US Finance for the third time, and in 2021, she was selected by American Banker as one of the 25 Most Powerful Women in Finance for the fifth consecutive year. She has also been named by Forbes to its list of 50 over 50.

She is a member of the Board of Trustees of Northwestern University; the Chair of the Executive Committee and Board of Governors of the Investment Company Institute (ICI); the US Institute Asset Management CEO Roundtable; C200; The Women’s Forum of New York and the National Association of Corporate Directors. Hung also serves on the non-profit board of Next for Autism.

Hung earned her MBA from Harvard University and B.S. in Mechanical Engineering from Northwestern University, from which she received a Distinguished Alumni Medal in 2019, the highest honor granted by the Northwestern Alumni Association.

On Hung’s arrival, Taraporevala will assume the role of advisor and stay through early 2023 to provide a smooth transition of responsibilities.

Get Anti-money Laundering Training With FIBA’s CPAML and AMLCA Certifications: What Are They and How Can They Help You?

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The Florida International Bankers Association (FIBA) is a non-profit professional association founded in 1979. The main focus of FIBA members is international finance, international correspondent banking and wealth management or private banking services for non-residents.

FIBA has long been recognised by regulators for its knowledge and expertise in Anti Money Laundering (AML) compliance and its excellent courses. FIBA has been providing anti-money laundering training for more than two decades, including its Annual Conference and FIBA AMLCA and CPAML certifications in partnership with Florida International University (FIU). FIBA will soon be organising two new courses for which you can register with a $200 discount code provided by Funds Society (FS200).

CPAML Certification (25/26th October)

The CPAML is an advanced level certification designed to expand the knowledge of professionals, officers, directors, or managers of any organization, with respect to the prevention of money laundering and financing of terrorism (AML / CFT).

The program is developed with a risk-based approach to identify potential risks, design an effective control system, investigate suspicious cases, and how to use these processes to best evaluate the effectiveness of internal controls.

The online course is an interactive option design for participants interested in completing the certification at their own pace. Through open discussions and activities, participants will have the opportunity to actively engage with the instructor and classmates to discuss the assigned materials.

October 25-26: Students will attend the CPAML course via Zoom videoconference

October 28: Students will work on their assignments and submit their workbooks before 5:00 PM EST

November 24: Final exam deadline – must be completed via Canvas before 11:59 PM EST

Participants who pass the final exam with an 81% or higher will earn the CPAML certificate. This certificate is valid for 2 years with 20 AML Continuing Education credits.

The registration fees are $1595 USD for non-members; $1395 USD for FIBA members; and $1195  USD for Government. Funds Society readers can access an exclusive discount with the code FS200.

AMLCA Certification (From 17th November)

The internationally recognized AMLCA Certification (Anti-Money Laundering Certified Associate) is designed for intermediate-level compliance officers in both financial and non-financial sectors. The in-depth curriculum is based on best practices and international standards regarding the origin, practices, and development of regulations in money laundering, terrorism financing, and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

The next edition will start in 17th November. The online course is an interactive option design for participants interested in completing the certification at their own pace. Through open forums and discussions, participants will have the opportunity to actively engaged with the instructor and classmates to discuss the assigned materials. Participants will have 90 days to complete the reading materials, PowerPoint narratives, 23 practice quizzes and the final certification exam.

The final certification exam consist of 100 multiple choice questions that must be completed within 1 hour and 45 minutes. Participants must pass the exam with a 75% or higher mark to receive the prestigious FIBA AMLCA Certification.

The registration fees are $1395 USD for non-members; $1195 USD for FIBA members; and $995  USD for Government. Funds Society readers can access an exclusive discount with the code FS200.

AXA Investment Managers Launches an ETF Platform with a Focus on Active Management and Responsible Investment

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Marco Morelli, presidente ejecutivo de AXA IM
Photo courtesyMarco Morelli, Executive Chairman of AXA IM

AXA Investment Managers announces the launch of an ETF platform (“AXA IM ETF”) focused on active strategies and Responsible Investing (RI) to provide investors looking for enhanced liquidity with access to its strengths across responsible, thematic and quantitative investing.

The platform will initially launch with two actively UN SDG (United Nations Sustainable Development Goals) aligned ETFs, classified as Article 9 funds under SFDR regulation , which have dual objectives of seeking to deliver long-term financial growth and a positive and measurable impact on the environment, the firm says.

The first two ETFs launched will focus on climate and biodiversity themes.

Commenting on the launch of the new platform, Marco Morelli, Executive Chairman of AXA IM, said: “To meet the changing demands of investors we must continue to innovate and enhance our investment offering, and through the launch of this new platform we do this by combining our active investment insight with the flexibility of an ETF.

“With the support of AXA and leveraging our key strengths, primarily within active management and responsible investing strategies, this platform will complement our existing fund range while answering client demand for ETF structured vehicles and offering them a better trading experience as well as easy access to such strategies, high liquidity, and enhanced  transparency due to the nature of these products,” Morelli adds. 

Hans Stoter, Global Head of AXA IM Core, added: “We are observing long term trends such as blockchain technology, banking disintermediation and the emergence of online brokerage platforms which can transform the way funds are distributed. In that regard, we believe active ETFs will play an important role in the evolution of the asset management industry and we believe we are well placed to embrace such an evolution.

“Even though ETFs are often viewed as passive investments, historically replicating the portfolio holdings and performance of broad market indices, the ETF market has evolved to now offer a range of non-traditional custom-built portfolios. Today’s ETF can be actively managed, further expanding investor choice. In that regard, our new ETF range will complement our wide range of mutual funds.”

In the context of this launch, Brieuc Louchard has joined AXA IM as Head of ETF Capital Markets, joining from Euronext where he was Head of ETF.

Investing in The Evolution of Medical Technology

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Throughout history, the intersection between technology and medicine has touched the lives of nearly every person in the world. Whether it’s the development of technology that allows us to look deep inside the body or breakthrough medicines that extend the lives of those with chronic diseases, these advances have not only impacted our lives, but also intensified pharmaceutical drug development over the past few decades.

The earliest drugs of our days, or “conventional medicines,” were first developed in the early 20th century, and were initially made from small molecules that were chemically synthesized in a lab. In the last decade biologics have become one of the fastest-growing areas of modern pharmaceuticals.

Biologic drugs are fundamentally different than conventional, small molecule-based drugs. Rather than being synthesized chemically, biologics — as the term suggests — ultimately derive from living organisms (e.g., bacteria, yeast, and even animal tissues or cells) and are considered large molecular drugs. In comparison to the development of conventional drugs, the production of biologic drugs requires a highly complex manufacturing process.

Today, biologic drugs, or “biopharmaceuticals,” are the fastest-growing parts of the pharmaceutical industry. According to McKinsey, biopharmaceuticals generate global revenues of $163 billion, making up about 20% of the pharmaceutical market. While biologic drugs have clearly become the medicine of today, we believe the next frontier in treatments will likely be in cell and gene therapy (CGT).

The foundational concept of CGT is developing treatments that aim to alter the genetic instruction of a patient’s cells. It accomplishes this by either replacing defective or absent genes with healthy ones, or by changing the way genes are regulated by the body so that defective cells can operate normally. These advances will be game changers because they can help cure or significantly improve the management of diseases that currently have few or no existing treatments. Moreover, the application of CGT can cover a wide range of challenging conditions, such as advanced, late-stage cancer or rare, inherited genetic disorders.

The Future Is in Cell and Gene Therapies

The past five years have been the renaissance period for CGT innovations, and COVID-19 accelerated the pace of these developments even more. According to a 2019 FDA report, in the last two years alone, CGT developers submitted almost 500 applications to the FDA to begin clinical trials. Of those submitted, the FDA anticipates that by 2025 roughly 10 to 20 CGT products will be approved every year. Given the pace of therapies expected to hit the market, it is no wonder that the Alliance for Regenerative Medicine expects CGT industry revenues to grow at 40% CAGR to $30 billion by 2025.

It is clear that CGT is at an important inflection point. Its trajectory is poised to accelerate as newer CGT therapies come to the market to treat a diverse range of health ailments, such as inherited blindness, cancers, blood disorders, leukemia, and multiple myeloma.

We believe CGT is at a tipping point today. Below we highlight two compelling, FDA-approved CGT developments — recent successes that will lay the foundation for the next generation of CGT technologies.

  1. Spinal muscular atrophy (SMA). In 2019, the FDA approved Zolgensma, the first gene therapy approved to treat children under age 2 with SMA, a leading genetic cause of infant mortality when left untreated. SMA is a rare genetic disease caused by a mutation in the survival motor neuron gene (SMN1) that is critical for the functioning of nerve cells that control muscle movement. Children with this rare condition have issues holding their head up, swallowing, and even breathing. Zolgensma delivers a fully functional copy of the SMN1 gene into the target motor neuron cells to improve muscle movement and function.
  2. Lymphoma. In early 2021, the FDA approved Breyanzi, a cell-based gene therapy to treat patients with certain types of large B-cell lymphoma cancer. Each dose of Breyanzi is a customized treatment that uses the patient’s own T-cells to help fight relapsed or refractory disease.

What’s on the Horizon for Cell and Gene Therapy?

The remarkable developments mentioned above are only the tip of the iceberg for the CGT landscape. The clinical pipeline is robust. Over half of the trials focus on oncology, and they are sponsored equally by industry, academic participants, and governments. While historically only a small fraction of these trials is likely to become a FDA approved CGT product, the therapies that do get approved will provide enormous, life-changing benefits to patients who otherwise would have little hope for a cure or a meaningful improvement in their disease. Personalized treatments can reduce the need for chronic therapies and improve the quality of life for many.

Thus, even if a small selection of these clinical trials receives the FDA green light, the implications could still be far-reaching for the healthcare system and its patients. Notably, we anticipate a shift in the incurrence and timing of healthcare costs.

Identifying Next-Gen Opportunities for Investors

Although CGT is still a relatively nascent market compared with that of biologics, we see tremendous growth opportunities in biopharmaceutical manufacturers and biotechnology companies. Specifically, we view companies that provide the equipment, consumables, or services critical to the development and delivery of therapies as especially attractive. These key players can indirectly benefit when new therapies come into the market without being exposed to the binary risks of clinical trial outcomes. For example, these companies may include:

  • Transportation companies skilled in moving patient samples that are sensitive to temperature or other variables to processing facilities.
  • Manufacturing companies with expanded capability and capacity to produce T-cells.
  • Compliance companies that ensure product safety and quality through oversight and implementation of biomanufacturing processes.
  • Infusion companies providing at-home infusion for patients who can’t go to hospitals.
  • Bioprocessing companies that increase production yields while lowering manufacturing costs.

The outlook for the CGT field is promising due to the robust clinical trial pipeline, the increased rate of FDA approvals, and patient enthusiasm. We believe continued advances in CGT will transform the way we treat diseases and dramatically alter the delivery of healthcare on both the individual and industry levels.

Dynasty Financial Partners Forms Partnership with Pontera to Improve Client Retirement Outcomes

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Dynasty Financial Partners and financial technology company Pontera announced a partnership to allow RIAs in Dynasty’s network to fully manage 401(k), 403(b), and other held away accounts for their clients in a secure and compliant manner leveraging Pontera’s SOC 2 certified platform.

Since 2010, the time of Dynasty’s founding, assets in employer-sponsored retirement accounts have more than doubled from $4.9 trillion to over $11 trillion as of year-end 2021. In addition to market appreciation, this growth is attributable to declines in rollovers due to retiree-friendly plan policies and better in-plan investment options, the company said.

A recent Cerulli report found that of the $3.3 trillion eligible for a distribution last year, 73% remained in-plan. Bipartisan support of accommodative legislation in the SECURE Act 2.0 and the re-enactment of the DOL Fiduciary rule suggest that the trend of employer-sponsored plan growth will only continue.

Consequently, the need for investment advice in these accounts has grown; a recent J.P. Morgan survey found that 62% of plan participants wish they could completely hand over retirement planning to an expert.

Historically, however, financial advisors have struggled to help clients with these accounts as they are typically held off wealth management advisory platforms (or “held away”). Pontera’s technology addresses this gap by allowing advisors to trade held away accounts for their clients. Pontera’s data integrations into portfolio accounting systems means that wealth managers can also run performance reporting, portfolio analytics, and trade surveillance, enabling advisors to provide clients with the same level of service on held away accounts as custodied accounts. Advisors can increase their revenue while providing a comprehensive financial picture through the addition of retirement plan accounts.

“At Pontera, our mission is to be a bridge to a better retirement for investors everywhere by allowing them to get the management they want and need in their held away accounts,” said David GoldmanPontera’s Chief Business Officer. The benefit of professional investment management to clients can be monumental; research shows professionally managed accounts can generate over 3% in additional value per year, net of fees, and potentially even more during times of volatility like the first half of 2022. “We are humbled and excited to partner with Dynasty, who we view as a pioneer and leader in the independent wealth management space, in pursuit of our goal,” Goldman added.

“At Dynasty, we help leading advisor teams transition to independence so they can provide customized, holistic advice to their clients in ways that may not be possible in other channels,” said Shirl Penney, Dynasty’s CEO. “Managing employer sponsored retirement accounts is critical to delivering a comprehensive service to clients. We are thrilled to have found a provider that can deliver the capability in a scalable, secure, and compliant manner. We look forward to launching with Pontera to bring held away account management to all of our teams and their clients.”

Dynasty will handle the operational elements of Pontera’s services for firms within its network, including billing and performance reporting integration, allowing them to focus on delivering best-in-class client services. Dynasty joins a number of other fintech providers in recently announcing partnerships with Pontera.

Why LatAm Corporate Debt, Why Now?

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The idea that the more risk taken, the higher the expected return is well understood by the public and is at the core of an investment professional’s knowledge. However, in a context of high volatility and choppy markets, many investors struggle to truly incorporate this concept when it comes to making real investment decisions.

The current environment for dollar denominated LatAm corporate debt, as well as for other risky assets that might form part of a diversified portfolio, poses a dilemma: on the one hand, valuations and spreads look particularly attractive amid a volatile market, but on the other, managers are taking extremely cautious stances and holding cash on the sidelines, reflecting risk aversion.

Taking a closer look at the last 15 years of history, we find three periods of abrupt sell offs of the JPMorgan CEMBI Broad Diversified Latin HY index. All three episodes share two main features: spreads widening above 300 basis points in less than 3 months and returns tumbling more than 15% in that same period. These are the 2008 global financial crisis between September that year and March of 2009, then the concerns over Chinese growth between December 2015 until February 2016, and finally the covid crisis between February and April of 2020.

Looking deeper, if we analyze the returns obtained after 18 months elapsed from investing in the index for each day of the last 15 years, we find a direct positive relation between the entry spread level and the final return after 18 months, as shown in the following chart. 

This exercise provides evidence that in this asset class, the entry level of spread or valuation at the moment of investing has historically held a direct relation with the returns obtained after 18 months. This implies that, the lower the spread at entry, the lower the final return or inversely, the higher the spread level at the time of investing, the higher the achieved return.  The relationship is especially apparent in the case of investments during the three crisis episodes identified and highlighted in the chart above. The red dotted line shows the current spread level of LatAm high yield corporate debt and the potential expected return after 18 months using this historic relation between the spread entry level and the terminal return in this period.

What can we expect for markets in the coming months? What will be the peak levels for LatAm corporate bonds spreads? We do not know; the answer to these questions depends on the evolution of global markets and investors’ risk aversion, as well as whether central banks efforts to control the persistent inflation and investors’ expectations are successful or not, among other developments impossible to predict. Furthermore, the answer will depend on whether or not the global economy avoids a deep recession brought on by monetary policy overshooting the necessary amount of tightening.  

Today we see spread levels over 700 basis points and yields around 10% for the CEMBI Latin HY Index. Latin America is a region that maintains its historical dependency on commodities and continues to be subject to political uncertainty – the regional backdrop is the same as for the last 15 years.  However, corporate issuers today have the lowest debt levels they have had in almost 10 years, suggesting resiliency in the face of a wavering business cycle.

It is important to recognize our own incapacity to accurately time an investment exactly at the market bottom while simultaneously acknowledging the significant impact that timing can have.  For example, those who chose to invest in LatAm corporate high yield debt in the first month after the fall of Lehman Brothers in September, 2008 (at a spread around 700 basis points) saw returns after 18 months close to 20%.  However, those who waited 6 months more until spreads reached 1,500 basis points were richly rewarded with returns after 18 months of approximately 60%.  Despite these differences, it’s clear that in both cases, the decision to invest was correct.  Final returns were double-digit, compensating the risk undertaken in the throes of the greatest economic and financial crisis of modern history.        

In summary, we are neither likely to perfectly time the market, nor are we likely to predict the duration of the downturn in Latin American debt markets. However, given this universe of issuers with healthy financial situations, we feel comfortable extrapolating that current spread levels allow for double-digit returns over the next year and a half, based on the historical precedent of the last three similar market downturns.