The EU’s ESG Regulatory Framework Is Positive, but It Needs Greater Clarity and Improvements

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According to a survey conducted by CFA Institute on sustainable finance among investors, the EU’s ESG regulatory framework contributes to an increase in Sustainable Investment but needs greater clarity and improvements. One of the main conclusions of this study is the variety of challenges faced by investors in the EU regarding the disclosure of sustainable finance, the reliability of data, and the complexity of ESG ratings.

“This study represents the views of financial professionals across the ecosystem, from large asset owners to boutique asset managers. One of the reasons we conducted this study is to understand how our members perceive the current EU regulatory regime, which aims to support and promote sustainable investment. We observe mixed opinions on the topic: while there is broad consensus that the EU’s sustainable finance regime is advancing the international agenda, a similar proportion feels that the EU’s efforts are confusing, and the lack of reliable ESG data does not justify the integration of ESG considerations into investment decisions. This is a concerning finding, and regulators need to pay attention to the sentiments of investment professionals,” highlights Josina Kamerling, Head of Regulatory Affairs EMEA at CFA Institute.

In this regard, investors are urging regulators to continue driving the international sustainability agenda but with legislation better adapted to ESG disclosure requirements to ensure alignment with their needs. Regarding the lack of reliable and verifiable data, the report concludes that the rapid implementation timeline of the applicable EU legislation has forced companies and asset managers to provide required disclosures despite the lack of reliable and verifiable data.

A testament to this is that 65% stated that the lack of reliable ESG data was one of the biggest challenges for asset managers in implementing the EU’s SFDR, while 45% consider that the high costs of obtaining ESG data and the lack of skilled personnel with experience to collect and analyze it were other major challenges in implementing the SFDR.

ESG Information

The report reveals that retail investors can be confused by the volume and complexities of sustainability information, making it difficult for them to use it to make appropriate investment decisions. 45% of respondents indicated that the amount and complexity of ESG information often lead to confusion among retail investors when making an investment decision. Specifically, 36% said that the disclosure requirements under Articles 8 and 9 of the SFDR are too complex and make it difficult for retail investors to fully understand the sustainability impact of the funds they are considering investing in.

“The lack of clear definitions in the SFDR has resulted in asset managers and companies interpreting existing rules and standards in various ways, leading to diverse implementation of the EU’s ESG legislation,” the report concludes, noting that 32% expressed that it was difficult to compare ESG products because the required disclosures are not standardized and are not comparable across jurisdictions for retail investors. Furthermore, 37% believe that the regulation of the EU Taxonomy has reached an excessive level of development, resulting in information complexity and confusion among investors and stakeholders.

Recommendations for Regulators

Following the survey’s conclusions, CFA Institute has developed several recommendations for EU regulators to “address the concerns expressed by investors.” These recommendations include:

  1.  Continuing to drive the international sustainability agenda. Focus on developing more step-by-step adapted legislation regarding ESG disclosure requirements and taxonomies to ensure alignment with the needs of financial market participants.
  2. Providing clear and consistent ESG terminology throughout the sustainable finance legislative framework. Clearer definitions would promote consistency in the implementation of ESG-related legislation and minimize diverse interpretations of rules and standards.
  3.  Considering the challenge posed by unreliable ESG data and the associated costs of collecting ESG data and training personnel for further analysis. Such issues currently limit compliance with the disclosure requirements in the EU’s sustainable finance legislative framework.
  4. Better clarifying the fund categorization system described in the SFDR for the disclosure requirements under Articles 8 and 9 of the regulation. A clearer approach could reduce the complexity of ESG disclosures for investors and mitigate greenwashing risks.
  5.  Addressing the complexity of ESG ratings and the divergent methodologies used by providers. The introduction of disclosure requirements, as envisaged in the proposed regulation on ESG rating activities, is likely to increase confidence in ESG rating providers and improve the comparability of their assessments.

Investors Remain Bullish Driven by the Expected Fed Rate Cuts

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Optimism remains among investors, according to the global manager survey conducted monthly by Bank of America. According to the entity, they remain bullish driven by the expected Fed rate cuts and strong expectations that a soft landing will eventually be achieved in the U.S. economy.

However, it is noteworthy that growth expectations in July are lower and that FMS cash levels have risen to 4.1%. “Monetary policy is too restrictive according to 39% of investors, the most restrictive since November 2008, but this, in turn, reinforces the belief that global interest rates will drop in the next 12 months,” noted BofA.

56% of managers expect the Fed to cut rates for the first time at the FOMC meeting on September 18, while 87% estimate that the first Fed cut will occur in the second half of 2024. “84% expect at least two Fed rate cuts in the next 12 months: 22% predict two cuts, 40% predict three cuts, and 22% predict more than three cuts,” the survey specifies.

A soft landing is the most plausible option for 68% of respondents compared to 11% who expect a hard landing and 18% who expect neither. The bank’s conclusion is key: “We believe that hard landing risks are undervalued, given the slowdown in U.S. consumption, the labor market, and public spending. This makes us more bullish on bonds and gold in the second half of 2024.” They add that the shift in conviction from “long stocks and short bonds” expects an impact on the soft landing narrative and policy consolidating the existing conviction.

Investors’ global growth expectations decreased to a net 27% as they anticipate a weaker economy. In this regard, the entity explains that the increased pessimism about global growth this month is partly due to more negative U.S. growth prospects.

In fact, 53% of investors expect the U.S. economy to weaken, the highest percentage since December 2013. For now, two out of three investors still do not expect a global recession in the next 12 months. Specifically, 67% say a recession is unlikely, slightly down from 73% in June.

Complementing this view, “higher inflation” is no longer the main risk identified by managers, replaced by geopolitics. “87% expect lower rates, 81% a steeper yield curve, and 62% predict at least three Fed cuts in the next 12 months, starting on September 18,” noted BofA.

Asset Allocation

In this context, investors generally increased their allocation to utilities, U.S., emerging markets, and the UK, and reduced their exposure to the eurozone, commodities, and discretionary spending. Specifically, in July, investors remain overweight in equities and underweight in bonds. Notably, eurozone equity allocation fell to 10%, with a 20 percentage point month-over-month decline; the largest monthly drop since July 2012. Conversely, equity investors are more overweight in healthcare, technology, and telecommunications.

“71% of investors believe that being long in the Seven Magnificent is the most crowded trade. July marks the 16th consecutive month in which it has been the most crowded trade. 45% of respondents do not believe AI is a bubble, but a growing 43% of investors do,” added BofA.

Pictet Alternative Advisors Acquires Technology Services Group

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The team led by Edmund Buckley, Head of Direct Private Equity Investments at Pictet AA, the alternative investments division of the Swiss Pictet Group, has acquired Technology Services Group (TSG), a provider of IT services for rapidly growing small and medium-sized enterprises based in the UK. “We invest in high-quality businesses led by top entrepreneurs and are delighted to partner with Rory McKeand and the TSG management team to achieve their growth objectives,” Buckley explained.

This is the second investment by Pictet AA’s direct private equity team, following the acquisition of a majority stake in Pareto FM, a leading provider of technical services for facilities management with ESG criteria in the construction sector, in November 2023. According to the management firm, TSG covers the full range of technology within the Microsoft ecosystem, facilitating companies’ transition to cloud-based infrastructure. It holds seven Microsoft designations: Business Applications, Modern Work, Security, Digital & App Innovation, Infrastructure, Data & Artificial Intelligence, and Cloud, making it one of the few UK Microsoft Solutions Partners accredited with technical and execution capability across all Microsoft, Azure & Cloud solutions, business applications, and cybersecurity. Based in Newcastle, with over 250 full-time employees and offices in London and Glasgow, TSG serves 1,300 clients across various industries in a market driven by strong outsourcing and digitalization trends.

Andrzej Sokolowski, Head of Private Equity in the UK at Pictet AA, noted that TSG has an attractive and defensible business model, with a high proportion of recurring revenue and clients who value service quality and expertise across the entire Microsoft suite. “It offers solutions in Azure, Dynamics, and cybersecurity, as well as accelerated deployment of artificial intelligence tools. We see significant growth potential in TSG, both organically and through mergers and acquisitions.”

Rory McKeand, CEO of TSG, stated: “The demand for cloud services among SMEs is starting from a low base and is boosted by the new and powerful generation of Microsoft productivity tools. Pictet’s investment and collaboration will accelerate the next stage of our growth.”

Pictet AA acquired TSG from founding owners Sir Graham Wylie and David Stonehouse, as well as the management team, which has reinvested part of the proceeds. “We are proud of the growth and success that TSG has achieved as a leading provider of exceptional quality IT services focused on Microsoft and the Cloud. We wish Rory, his team, the staff, and Pictet all the best for the future,” Stonehouse remarked.

The ECB’s July Meeting Arrives With No Forecast of Changes in Rates, Discourse, or Stance

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The European Central Bank (ECB) will hold its July monetary policy meeting tomorrow. According to asset managers, it is likely to proceed without major surprises and, most notably, without new interest rate cuts as market expectations suggest.

“The ECB’s July monetary policy meeting is likely to pass without incident. Similar to market expectations, we do not anticipate any interest rate cuts. Data dependency remains high, decisions are made meeting by meeting, and there is no prior commitment to a possible rate cut in September,” acknowledges Ulrike Kastens, economist for Europe at DWS.

This probable pause in July, according to Kevin Thozet, member of the investment committee at Carmignac, “will allow the institution to better assess the region’s inflation and growth trajectory and confirm that the path forward is as desired. However, the prospects of a new rate cut in September, along with the Fed, are high.”

Currently, data indicate that eurozone inflation fell to 2.5% year-on-year, while core inflation remained unchanged at 2.9%. In the opinion of Jean-Paul van Oudheusden, market analyst at eToro, as long as interest rates stay above 3%, it is likely that the ECB’s monetary policy will remain restrictive. “The current base interest rate is 4.25%, which provides room for further rate cuts despite the latest adjustment to interest rate expectations made by the central bank in June. Recently, the central bank has been cryptic about its interest rate path, but its goal is not to surprise the markets. Christine Lagarde could prepare the market for a rate cut in September or October in her press conference on Thursday,” comments van Oudheusden.

Regarding what to expect from tomorrow’s meeting, Germán García Mellado, fixed income manager at A&G, adds: “Regarding the reduction in bond purchase programs, no significant new developments are expected, since in July, reinvestments of the special program launched during the pandemic (PEPP) began to be reduced by 7.5 billion per month, with the aim of fully reducing reinvestments by 2025.”

Already stated by the ECB

In line with what the ECB has explained so far, given that there are no new growth and inflation projections, it is unlikely that the communication will change. According to Philipp E. Bärtschi, Chief Investment Officer of J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable AM, the ECB’s rate cut in June was accompanied by comments suggesting that the ECB will also cut its rates gradually rather than quickly. “However, due to the weaker growth momentum and the projected inflation path, we expect three more rate cuts in the eurozone this year,” notes E. Bärtschi.

“The messages issued in Sintra are consistent with previous communications, and barring surprises in the data, September is the preferred date for the next action by members. What is reaffirmed is the trend of rate cuts. This meeting will take place after the French elections, and although there is still some uncertainty around the composition of the next French government and the prospects for fiscal policy, we do not rule out seeing Lagarde addressing questions about what the ECB could do to protect French sovereign bonds and under what circumstances,” adds Guillermo Uriol, Investment Manager and Head of Investment Grade at Ibercaja Gestión.

Additionally, according to President Lagarde, the strength of the labor market allows the ECB to take time to gather new information. Consequently, in the opinion of Konstantin Veit, portfolio manager at PIMCO, the ECB is in no rush to cut rates further, decisions will continue to be made meeting by meeting, and the data flow in the coming months will determine the speed at which the ECB removes additional restrictions.

“Given the ECB’s reaction function, whose decisions are based on inflation outlooks, core inflation dynamics, and monetary policy transmission, we foresee that the ECB will continue cutting rates in expert projection meetings, and we expect the next rate cut to occur in September,” emphasizes Veit.

Forecast of new cuts

The market currently expects a 25 basis point rate cut in September and another in December/January. However, they identify that the ECB remains open to a slower rate cut process based on the data being published, with a meeting-by-meeting approach.

For their part, investment firms agree that the market is pricing in another 45 basis points of rate cuts for this year and consider that the current terminal rate, around 2.5%, above most estimates of a neutral interest rate for the eurozone, indicates a high concern about last-mile inflation. “Overall, the market valuation seems reasonable and broadly aligns with our baseline of three cuts for this year,” points out Veit.

On the possibility of rate cuts resuming in September, Peter Goves, Head of Developed Markets Sovereign Debt Analysis at MFS Investment Management, argues that it is not yet fully priced in, which leaves some room for an uptick in the event of a 25 basis point cut at that meeting. “This keeps us optimistic about eurozone duration in the short and medium term. European government bond spreads remain relatively tight given the risk of events in France (which turned out to be relatively brief and more idiosyncratic than systemic). We see this as a possible topic to address in the press conference, but we doubt Lagarde will comment on France’s domestic political situation. Additionally, Lagarde is likely to affirm that monetary policy transmission has worked well,” explains Goves.

The ECB’s challenge

For Thomas Hempell, Head of Macro Analysis at Generali AM, part of the Generali Investments ecosystem, the ECB sticks to its data-dependent approach and stressed that wage data plays a crucial role. “On the other hand, official interest rates remain well above the neutral rate. We believe that with the slow downward trend in inflation, the ECB will initiate quarterly interest rate cuts until the deposit rate reaches 2.5%. This broadly aligns with market expectations,” comments Hempell.

In the opinion of Gilles Moëc, Chief Economist at AXA IM, it is paradoxical that central banks are being harshly criticized just as they are about to declare victory over inflation at a manageable cost to the real economy. In fact, he considers that the ECB started cutting rates in June, before clear signs of recession began to accumulate. “We believe it will be tight, but there is a possibility that the ECB will remove monetary restraint quickly enough to avoid a recession phase. We do not expect an emergency cut at this week’s meeting; we believe there would have been clear signals to this effect at the annual conference in Sintra,” he states.

According to his forecasts, the ECB Governing Council meeting should be the occasion to make it clearer that the June cut was only the beginning of a process. “We expect the next 25 basis point cut to occur in September. The market is now pricing an 87% probability of a cut then, and we would put it even higher. It is true that disinflation has stalled, but surveys converge to paint a sufficiently moderate picture of underlying price pressure for the ECB not to wait too long. In June, Christine Lagarde energetically avoided engaging in a discussion about what would be a path to removing restrictions. We expect greater openness this week, largely validating current market prices,” he concludes.

Larry Fink Reaffirms BlackRock’s Commitment to Private Markets

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In the context of presenting the second quarter 2024 results, Larry Fink, Chairman and CEO of BlackRock, reiterated the company’s commitment to private markets. This commitment has been bolstered by the acquisition of Preqin earlier this month.

“BlackRock is leveraging the broadest set of opportunities we’ve seen in years, including private markets, Aladdin, and full portfolio solutions across both ETFs and active assets. At the same time, we are opening significant new growth markets for our clients and shareholders with our planned acquisitions of Global Infrastructure Partners and Preqin,” Fink stated.

In this regard, he highlighted that organic growth in this second quarter was driven by private markets, in addition to retail active fixed income and increasing flows into our ETFs, which had their best start to the year in history. “BlackRock generated nearly $140 billion in total net flows in the first half of 2024, including $82 billion in the second quarter, resulting in 3% organic growth in base fees. We are delivering growth at scale, reflected in a 12% increase in operating income and a 160 basis points expansion in margin,” he said regarding the results.

According to Fink, BlackRock’s extensive experience in engaging with companies and governments worldwide sets it apart as a capital partner in private markets, driving a unique deal flow for clients. “We have strong sourcing capabilities and are transforming our private markets platform to bring even more scale and technology benefits to our clients. We are on track to close our planned acquisition of Global Infrastructure Partners in the third quarter of 2024, which is expected to double the base fees of private markets and add approximately $100 billion in infrastructure assets under management. And just a few weeks ago, we announced our agreement to acquire Preqin, a leading provider of private market data,” he emphasized.

Finally, he insisted that “BlackRock is defining a unique and integrated approach to private markets, encompassing investment, technological workflows, and data. We believe this will deepen our client relationships and deliver value to our shareholders through premium and diversified organic revenue growth.”

Larger Funds, Private Markets, Active ETFs, and Long-Term Themes: What Thematics AM Has on Its Radar

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Thematics AM, an affiliate of Natixis IM, is celebrating its fifth anniversary. The asset manager, specialized in thematic investing, has focused on developing a range of global, actively managed, high-conviction thematic equity strategies. Currently, they manage €4 billion in assets and have grown from a founding team of six people to 24. We discussed the firm’s future plans and their perspectives on thematic investing in this interview with Karen Kharmandarian, the firm’s CIO and co-manager of the AI & Robotics strategy.

What is your assessment of the firm’s first five years?

Overall, very positive. Firstly, the company has grown in terms of products. We started with the Water, Safety, Artificial Intelligence & Robotics strategies, and our Meta fund, a multi-thematic product. Over time, we have added new products: Subscription Economy, Europe Selection, which is a multi-thematic strategy focused on European companies, and Climate Selection, also a multi-thematic fund, but focused on companies that comply with the Paris Agreement in terms of temperature trajectory. So, five years later, we have eight products. The first four we launched have reached between €400 million and €700 million, while the most recent ones are smaller, such as the Subscription Economy strategy, which is around €85 million. Looking ahead, our intention is for these funds to continue growing until they reach a critical size. This means we need to build trust in all of them.

What is your outlook for the next five years?

Assuming we continue generating good returns and trust, we want to keep identifying attractive investment themes while maintaining our DNA. That is, not just ‘trendy’ themes, but products that truly make sense from an investment perspective for clients, and that, in terms of investment, we have an investable universe that makes sense, allowing us to be exposed to different drivers, with diverse growth engines, offering regional and sector diversification, and where we can move with agility and flexibility to manage with a long-term vision. Our vision is to build thematic strategies where we can offer what we call ‘thematic alpha,’ where our active management adds value compared to the general market performance.

Are you considering taking this same vision and thematic strategies to the private market?

Not at the moment, although it is something we consider in the medium to long term. It would give us the opportunity to leverage our experience and identify companies that are growing rapidly in the unlisted space early on. It would require a different skill set and fully dedicated teams because you can’t cover the same number of companies as in the listed space. For now, we still see some opportunities in the listed space, especially in the middle ground between these two worlds, between the unlisted space and what we do on the listed side. Maybe in these earlier-stage companies, recently IPO or post-IPO, where we have some emerging trends appearing, but we don’t have an investable universe with too many companies. We could perhaps combine different emerging trends into a single strategy with highly promising, high-growth companies, dynamically managing these different themes within the same vehicle.

As active managers, do you find the active ETFs business attractive? Many asset managers indicate that it is a way to implement an active strategy in a more efficient vehicle. Is this something you consider for your business?

The ETF business is something we didn’t consider in the past because they were mainly passive and index strategies. But today, with these active ETF vehicles, you can do practically the same as we do in our UCITS funds, just using a different wrapper for the product. Having said that, we are quite indifferent to the vehicle itself; we can use a UCITS as we could an ETF. What matters to us is that the vehicle allows us to do exactly what we do in terms of how we manage the strategies: active management, conviction-based, fundamental stock selection, and truly having this long-term vision. As long as we can do that, if the client wants an ETF instead of a UCITS fund, we’ll do it. What matters to us is not altering our philosophy, our investment process, and the investment approach we apply to a specific theme. This offers us another potential growth opportunity and opens up a new set of clients who might not have been considering UCITS products. Perhaps this is also a sign of the times.

We have seen some investor disenchantment with thematic investing; why has it lost popularity?

We have seen tremendous growth in thematic strategies over the last, say, 10 years. The level of commercial traction and interest from all types of investors, from retail to institutional, has grown dramatically over the last 10 years. This is also a recognition of the current market reality, where sector classification or regional allocation makes less and less sense. With the success of thematic investing, new fund managers and asset managers also considered thematic strategies as a commercial hook for their products. A context was created where global equity products had become thematic strategies, but without really adopting the DNA of what a thematic strategy is and without generating very attractive returns. This disappointed the market.

In this regard, what is your approach?

For us, thematic investment strategies need to be based on long-term trends. We need to ensure that we have powerful trends that support superior growth for many years and that have enough depth and breadth of investable universe. Some of the requirements we have for our thematic strategies are: it must be enduring, it must have a significant impact, it must have a broad scope, and it must be responsible. These four criteria are really key to considering whether we see the theme as viable or not.

From the perspective of clients and investors, how do they use these strategies in their portfolios?

It depends a lot. There are common characteristics among all investors, and then there are specific objectives or requirements of some clients. Initially, we saw that thematic strategies started with retail clients, as a response to a matter of convictions and also because they are easy-to-understand products. Now we have detected that it has spread to private bankers, family offices, and institutional investors. This profile considers thematic strategies as a ‘satellite’ within their core investment portfolio and also as a bet on a specific theme to drive and diversify their performance. Progressively, we have also seen that clients are becoming more sophisticated and have moved towards thematic strategies as part of their overall allocation.

Which themes are investors most interested in now?

I would say, without a doubt, that AI and robotics are very much on the clients’ radar today because they see how their daily lives are being radically changed by AI, generative AI, OpenAI, etc., and how this can bring significant changes in the way they interact with technology. Water is also becoming a relevant theme again. Although it seems like a mature theme that has been around for many years, we see that people realize that with climate change, it is gaining new momentum. And I would also mention safety, which is regaining relevance in a context of geopolitical tensions and wars.

Cocoa: The Price Volatility Does Not Diminish the Appeal of This Agricultural Commodity

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In the course of 2024, the price of cocoa has doubled, making one of the greatest pleasures we know, chocolate, more expensive. Specifically, in April, the price of cocoa on the New York Stock Exchange reached its historical maximum at $11,500 per ton, then moderated and slightly decreased in the following months. After reaching these historical peaks, prices reversed the trend and fell by 15%, but it seems they will surge again and continue to grow over time after this correction.

Investors recognize that this agricultural commodity has great long-term appeal, despite the price volatility driven by drought and climate change affecting production. According to Bank of America, it is likely that cocoa price volatility will continue in the short term. The uncertainty around supply and its implications for spot and future cocoa contracts is the main topic of discussion with their clients. According to their latest report, cocoa harvests for 2023/2024 are expected to decrease by 25% to 30% in West Africa, a region that represents half of the global supply.

In fact, the situation has even led the government of Côte d’Ivoire to limit the delivery of cocoa supplies during the mid-crop (May-July, approximately 20% of annual production) to companies with local grinding capacity. In this regard, Bank of America analysts consider that price and futures volatility for cocoa will continue until the end of August, when projections for the main 2024/2025 crop become clearer.

Better harvest production could translate into a price increase for final products such as chocolate. Bank of America believes that major cocoa and chocolate brands will increase their prices by double digits to compensate for cocoa inflation during this period, considering a future cocoa price of approximately $6,000 per ton by 2025. “Reflecting cocoa price inflation, the impact of chocolate price increases on volume (elasticity) and mix (shift to more affordable products) will be key. However, the current price waves occur after two years of double-digit price increases, questioning historical elasticity patterns, especially in the U.S. market, which has been weak so far,” Bank of America points out in its report.

According to NielsenIQ data in the U.S., chocolate market sales have been weak so far this year, with volume down approximately 5% (and value up about 1%), clearly showing some cracks on the elasticity side. In BARN’s opinion, the main culprit remains the structure of the U.S. chocolate market, which is overrepresented in the mass market. The low representation of private labels and value brands (4% and 10% of volume, respectively) means there is a limited supply of low-priced products to prevent consumers from “abandoning” the category. In Western Europe, chocolate market sales have been resilient, with volume down about -2% (and value up about +8%). The main strength of the European market, according to BARN, is its more balanced nature compared to the U.S.

In Bank of America’s view, one of the risks for BARN is the possibility that some of its clients might reformulate their recipes to reduce cocoa content, especially in the U.S. market, to limit their own cost inflation. Although BARN has reformulation capabilities, this would be a volume obstacle as it would cannibalize sales or lead to a net revenue loss if not recovered.

As seen in the first half of 2024 results, Barry’s balance sheet is very sensitive to cocoa price movements, predominantly affecting working capital through the margin call on their short cocoa futures (reflecting the forward purchase agreement). Although the pressure on free cash flow will be intense in FY24 (BofAe: CHF -1.4bn), BARN has the necessary liquidity to face it with: 1) CHF 700 million bonds issued on June 10; 2) CHF 730 million bonds issued on May 5, 2024; 3) a CHF 500 million RCF available; and 4) approximately CHF 430 million in cash available in the first half of 2024 results.

Although it may take time to rebalance the supply and demand of cocoa, this will happen eventually, according to the report. Beyond the positive volume elasticity in the chocolate category resulting from a deflationary environment, in our opinion, the key positive for Lindt will be its ability to retain price increases, which will imply a tailwind for gross margin, likely translating into increased spending on advertising and promotion to continue nurturing brand value. Conversely, Bank of America estimates the impact will be less beneficial for BARN beyond the positive elasticity of the category, as prices will mathematically decrease for them considering the cost-plus model structure.

*Harvests begin in October.

Four Trends Hovering Over the Market: Geopolitics and Economic Transformation, Sustainability, Technology, and Demographics

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Amundi Shares Key Insights from the 2024 Edition of its Global Forum, Amundi World Investment Forum. The event featured in-depth discussions on geopolitical issues, economic transformation, major global macroeconomic trends, and their implications for investment.

In her opening speech, Valérie Baudson, CEO of Amundi, shared her convictions about the state of the world: “The economic outlook is improving, with global GDP growth around 3% in 2024 and 2025. Meanwhile, history and geopolitics are back in focus, with energy transition and technological innovations at the center of geopolitical tensions, as they condition nations’ ability to maintain or gain power.”

The firm shared several key conclusions. The first is that major political and economic changes threaten long-standing trade and security alliances. According to the firm’s perspective, global politics affecting economies was a prominent theme among the speakers. Sanna Marin, Prime Minister of Finland (2019-2023), focused her talk on the current conflict in Europe, stating, “A major game is being played between democracies and authoritarian regimes. What is happening in Ukraine will define the future of democracy.” She urged Europe and NATO to offer “broader perspectives” and reminded that “geopolitics is not the only threat facing humanity; climate change and biodiversity loss are also critical.”

Adam S. Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, predicted, “Markets will push interest rates up in the coming years.” Ricardo Reis, A.W. Phillips Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics, explained public debt movements by three factors: “The large current account deficits of China and the rest of Asia caused a significant capital flow into Europe and the United States, investment stagnation due to very few opportunities in the 2010s, and the perception of government bonds as very safe with little inflation risk. Today, all three factors have reversed.”

Additionally, Keyu Jin, Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics, estimated that “the three fastest-growing economies in the coming years will be in Asia: China, India, and Indonesia,” and spoke about “the need for convergence” in the region: “China has room to converge with richer countries, and India also has enormous room to converge with China.”

Gordon Brown, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom (2007-2010) and Chancellor of the Exchequer (1997-2007), concluded the first day of debates with a message of hope, stating, “Even in the most difficult circumstances, even when things are very dark, we must keep hope alive. There are still signs of hope in this global economy that we must build upon, as Mandela said, ‘building for the future.’”

Sustainability, Technology, and Demography

The decarbonization of economies was a major focus. Dinesh Kumar Khara, Chairman of the State Bank of India, highlighted the “immense” potential of his country: “We are now embarking on green energy, which is being adopted significantly.”

Two case studies were presented: Chee Hao Lam, Chief Representative of the Monetary Authority of Singapore at the London Office, discussed how Singapore articulates public policy and mobilizes investors to finance the energy transition. Dr. Kevin K. Kariuki, Vice President of Power, Climate, and Green Growth at the African Development Bank Group, spoke about financing green energy infrastructure in a continent that “needs $25 billion annually to achieve universal access to modern energy by 2030.”

The firm also reflected on how the rapid acceleration of technological development has created new opportunities and pressures. Maurice Levy, Chairman Emeritus of Publicis Group, opened the second day’s debate with a focus on the rise of generative artificial intelligence. In his view, “On one hand, people think AI is probably the dream of tomorrow, which will change lives, especially for companies, their productivity, and profitability. At the same time, there is fear of job cuts and replacement, but most importantly, we need to address the implications regarding the use of deepfakes in democracy.”

Daron Acemoğlu, Professor at the MIT Institute, stated, “The key decision for CEOs will be how to use AI with workers, with human resources: whether they see workers as a cost to be cut or as an important resource that will contribute to their company’s success.” Aurélie Jean, Ph.D. and Computational Scientist, entrepreneur, and author, complemented this statement: “AI does not sufficiently protect workers. Technology owners, developers, scientists, and engineers have a responsibility to provide users with the correct information; they must protect while also fostering innovation.”

Experts remind us that financial services are at the heart of the AI revolution. “There is a huge opportunity to turn European savers into future European investors, and if AI can help with that, it will contribute to a better society,” said Dr. Kay Swinburne, Baroness of Swinburne.

Finally, the firm believes that demographic change is influencing many aspects of our lives. Mauro Guillén, Professor of Management and Vice Dean at the Wharton School, stated, “The key question is how to ride the wave of demographic transformations. India will soon have the largest consumer market in the world due to its younger population, although China will have the largest economy.” Demographics will impact investment trends, as “most of the world’s wealth, between 60% and 80% depending on the country, belongs to people over 60 years old.” Hence the need for “investment platforms to be safe, educational about risks and opportunities, and accessible” for all.

A Strengthened Trump Could Translate Into Higher Demand for Safe-Haven Assets and More Risks in the Markets

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The failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump this weekend during a rally in Pennsylvania brings a new direction to the US presidential race, improving his chances of victory. Additionally, according to experts, this event, which has dominated headlines since Saturday, could lead investors to seek safe-haven assets such as the dollar, gold, the Swiss franc, government bonds, and high-quality stocks.

In the opinion of Christian Gattiker, Chief Analyst at Julius Baer, regarding the political impact, Donald Trump’s election chances have increased dramatically. “If successful, this would mean a shift towards a more risk-taking mode in the markets, with higher expected growth in 2025 due to lower taxes and business-friendly policies,” he points out.

The experts at Renta 4 Banco share a similar assessment in their daily morning report: “The assassination attempt on Donald Trump this weekend could strengthen his chances of victory in the November presidential elections, as well as further increase political tension in the US.”

Bloomberg adds that it not only strengthens Trump’s position but also opens a new front for his opponent. “US President Joe Biden now finds himself fighting a re-election battle on two fronts: against Donald Trump and, more immediately, against some skeptics in his own party.” In this regard, Biden insisted to the press during Thursday’s press conference following the NATO meeting in Washington that “I am determined to run, but I think it’s important to allay fears.”

So far, around 20 Democratic House members and one Democratic senator, Peter Welch of Vermont, have publicly called for Biden to withdraw from the race against 78-year-old Trump, according to Bloomberg’s count.

Regarding the market, the Chief Analyst at Julius Baer believes that “it is quite possible that safe havens such as the US dollar, gold, the Swiss franc, seemingly safe government bonds, and high-quality stocks will be sought in the short term.” However, Gattiker clarifies: “If we believe the well-informed experts on US politics, the realization that Donald Trump’s election chances, and those of the Republicans in general, have significantly improved could settle in quickly, possibly even during the Republican National Convention this week. It is quite possible that we will see an iconic image of a raised fist against a bright blue sky as a defining moment of this campaign and beyond, which could be seen as a decisive moment in the election. This, in turn, would mean a shift towards a more risk-taking mode in the markets, with higher expected growth in 2025 due to lower taxes in the US and more business-friendly policies. How quickly this turnaround can occur largely depends on how quickly and successfully the Republicans can turn this shock into political capital,” he argues.

Inflation Data for June in the US: Is It the Clear Signal the Fed Was Waiting for to Lower Rates?

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Markets and investors are confident that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce a first rate cut in September. The argument supporting this conviction is the positive inflation data for June in the US: the year-over-year headline indicator showed an increase of 3%, lower than the expected 3.1% and down from 3.3% the previous month; and the core CPI surprised with a cut of one-tenth from the previous figure, reaching its lowest level since April 2021.

“On a monthly basis, the headline rate turned negative for the first time in nearly four years, with a -0.1% versus the expected 0.1% and the flat variation of the previous month. Overall, this confirms the trajectory towards the 2% target, although fluctuations may occur in the coming months,” explain analysts at Banca March.

By components, Banca March notes that both services and goods contributed less to inflation. “For services excluding energy, the variation was only 5%, the lowest rate since April 2022, contributing 3% compared to 3.11% the previous month. This was mainly due to a significant slowdown in attributed rents: 5.4% in June, the lowest growth since May 2022, compared to 5.6% previously, contributing 1.4%. As for goods prices, they declined at a rate of 1.84%, the biggest drop in 20 years, thus subtracting 0.40% from inflation. Finally, there was also a sharp slowdown in energy, growing by 0.99% compared to 3.67%, contributing only 0.08% versus 0.26%,” they detail in their daily analysis.

According to Banca March, it is undeniable that this is a good data point, reflected in market behavior. “It boosted bond prices on both sides of the Atlantic, leaving 10-year rates in the United States at their lowest levels since late March, and in Germany, the 2.5% level was breached again. Additionally, interest rate futures raise the chances of cuts in September to 90%, making it practically certain,” they add.

September: Rate Cut

In light of this macroeconomic data, combined with the outlook on the labor market and the US economy presented by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell this week during his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, the first rate cut in the US is set for September. According to Ronald Temple, Chief Market Strategist at Lazard, at this point, a rate cut in September should be a “done deal.” “In the second quarter, the overall inflation rate in the US was 1.1%, with core inflation at 2.1%, making it increasingly evident that the upward surprises in the first quarter were anomalies. Given the growing evidence of slowing economic growth, it is time for the Federal Reserve to refocus on the dual mandate and ease monetary policy,” Temple argues.

For John Kerschner, Head of US Securitized Products and Portfolio Manager at Janus Henderson, both the headline and core CPI were weaker than expected, giving the Federal Reserve the unequivocal signal that it will start lowering rates by the end of the year. “With less than three weeks until the next Fed meeting, the market is currently pricing in that it will skip that meeting and make its first cut in September. The probability of a cut at that meeting is now close to 100%, according to the market. More importantly, the market now expects three cuts by the end of January 2025. Chairman Powell recently said that inflation risks are now more ‘balanced.’ Yesterday’s figure reinforces that view and may now tilt the balance toward concern over a sharper slowdown in the US economy,” Kerschner states.

There is a clear consensus that weaker US inflation data strengthens the case for a rate cut at the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting. “Along with softer economic data, including a cooling labor market, this has increased confidence that inflation will tend to decline in the coming months. We lower our US inflation forecast to 3% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025. We still expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates in September and December 2024,” acknowledges David Kohl, Chief Economist at Julius Baer.

According to Kohl, the decline in inflation in June follows a moderation in May and reinforces the view that the Fed will cut the federal funds rate target at its September meeting. “Weaker economic data, including a cooling labor market, also increases our confidence that inflation will decelerate further in the coming months and that the Federal Reserve will cut the target rate again at its December meeting. We lower our annual inflation forecasts for 2024 from 3.2% to 3.0% and for 2025 from 2.3% to 2.2%,” he concludes.

However, there are also dissenting voices in the industry. According to experts at Vanguard, despite the turn taken by the unexpected strength of the US economy, the events of the first half of 2024 have reinforced their view that the environment of higher interest rates is here to stay. “The current economic cycle is not normal. The global economy is still settling after unprecedented economic shocks that include a pandemic, a war in Ukraine, and rising geopolitical tensions. Structural changes, such as an aging population and rising fiscal debt, also make it difficult to decipher the economic cycle from the trend. This creates a challenging environment for central banks, markets, and investors,” says Jumana Saleheen, Chief Economist for Europe at Vanguard.