Old Mutual Global Investors has announced the launch of the Old Mutual Europe (excluding the UK) Smaller Companies Fund, a sub fund of the Old Mutual Global Investors Series Plc, a Dublin domiciled umbrella fund.
The fund, which is managed by Ian Ormiston who joined Old Mutual Global Investors in October 2014, aims to achieve long-term capital growth through investing in smaller companies in Europe (excluding the UK). The portfolio will hold between 40 and 55 stocks, each with an equal weighting in the portfolio.
The fund will focus on finding companies with less than €1bn market cap, with the team researching the most inefficient part of the market in order to find cheap growth opportunities.
By investing in businesses achieving high and consistent profitability whilst avoiding illiquid stocks and turn-around companies, the fund aims to reduce inherent risks that are sometimes associated with the small cap market.
The European small cap sector offers a breath of opportunities for investors, benefiting from economic clustering and diversity that offers attractive investments in most market conditions.
Ian Ormiston commented: “The European small cap market is a diverse universe offering great opportunities for investors. As an under-researched sector, it is naturally inefficient and so by focusing on high quality, true small cap companies, with a good level of liquidity we aim to create a portfolio that can add real value to investors.”
Having just celebrated Thanksgiving, says Kristina Hooper, the US investment strategist and head of US Capital Markets Research & Strategy for Allianz Global Investors, we have so much to be thankful for as Americans—and as investors:
The employment situation has improved substantially in the past year – Unemployment has dropped to 5.8% in October 2014 from 7.2% in October 2013. Even U-6, the broadest measure of unemployment, has fallen to 11.5% from 13.7%.
Lower oil prices have put money back in consumers’ pockets – On June 6, oil closed at $102.66 per barrel. Last Friday, it closed at $76.1 per barrel. A roughly 25% drop in a few short months, helps compensate, at least indirectly, for the lack of wage growth many Americans continue to experience.
Global monetary policy remains very accommodative – Last week, the Bank of China lowered interest rates and the ECB president Mario Draghi suggested the probability of sovereign QE is rising. Even the Fed is looking at a broader set of economic data in assessing when to begin tightening. Policy makers want to ensure the economy is on solid footing before it acts. Even after the Fed’s initial move, the environment will remain relatively accommodative, especially given that the Fed expects to maintain its balance sheet at its existing size through re-investment of its maturing assets.
Most importantly, our veterans, who have made great sacrifices for our freedom – Thanks to our men and women in uniform, we live in a free society and enjoy all the rights and privileges that come with it, including a capitalist system.
But there are some items on our wish list for Santa:
Higher-quality jobs and higher wages – There has been very little wage growth in the past few years, a result of the substantial slack in the labor market. In general, many Americans have lower-quality jobs— ones they’re overqualified for, ones that don’t pay as much, ones that don’t include benefits—that are far worse than the ones they had before the global financial crisis. We are hopeful that will change as labor-market slack diminishes, although we expect it will vary by region and industry in the US.
Less conflict in the world – Some of our greatest risks right now are geopolitical ones. Let’s hope many of the troubling flare-ups we’ve seen recently begin to moderate. “The euro zone and Japan are concerned primarily about deflation while China is concerned with decelerating growth.”
Stronger economic growth and a healthy level of inflation globally – It’s clear based on recent monetary policy that Japan, China and the euro zone are worried about their economies. The euro zone and Japan are concerned primarily about deflation while China is concerned with decelerating growth. The International Monetary Fund downgraded global growth expectations for 2015 to 3.8% from 4% earlier this year. And while the United States is enjoying improving economic growth, it’s not immune to what’s happening on other shores. In fact, the October FOMC minutes show that the Fed is concerned about a global deceleration and the impact it would have on the United States. Let’s hope that greater deceleration can be halted, and that economies can actually see stronger growth in the coming year.
Investors who put emotions aside and invest with a plan – Investors, particularly younger ones, are far too risk averse right now. That’s cause for concern especially since we expect more volatility going forward. A recent Bankrate survey showed that 39% of millennials—those ages 18 to 29 years old—felt that the best place to invest money they “didn’t need for 10 years or more” was cash. While that’s largely due to the kind of investing environment they lived through as young adults, it doesn’t bode well for their financial security. Looking ahead, the investing environment will be more challenging with a lot of twists and turns. Still, investors should stick to a long-term financial plan and broadly diversify their portfolios, including an adequate allocation to stocks. It’s risky not to be in risk assets.
UniCredit and Pioneer Investments today announced that Sandro Pierri will be stepping down from his post as CEO of Pioneer Investments effective January 31, 2015. Giordano Lombardo will ensure continuity of leadership for Pioneer’s business during this phase. Mr. Lombardo has been with Pioneer for over 17 years, during which time he has been responsible for developing and leading Pioneer’s global investment management platform, currently serving as Deputy CEO and Group Chief Investment Officer.
Federico Ghizzoni, CEO of UniCredit, said, “I would like to thank Sandro for his many contributions to Pioneer over the last eleven years, and especially during his two and a half years as CEO. Pioneer produced excellent investment results and robust net inflows owing to Sandro’s strategic focus and disciplined execution. The past two years have seen Pioneer’s standing as a leading global asset manager reaffirmed, supported by outstanding investment performance and approximately €24 billion of cumulative net inflows. I wish him the very best in his future endeavors, and am confident that he leaves Pioneer extremely well positioned.”
Mr. Ghizzoni continued, “I am fully confident that Giordano and the rest of Pioneer’s management team will continue to effectively manage the business and support Pioneer’s clients and associates around the world. They have my full support.”
Sandro Pierri commented: “I want to thank Federico and UniCredit, as well as the Board of Pioneer Global Asset Management, for giving me the opportunity to lead Pioneer for the past two and a half years. We have, thanks to a fantastic team effort, outperformed our initial goals and helped Pioneer to produce strong investment performance and record levels of net inflows, and Pioneer is now in an incredibly strong position. I will always think very fondly of my time at Pioneer and wish nothing but the best for Pioneer and its people going forward.”
Banco Santander said on September that it was in talks to potentially combine its asset management arm in a joint venture with Pioneer Global Asset Management. The deal, if consumated, would create an asset manager with 347 billion euros, or about $568.2 billion, in assets under management and operations in the Americas, Europe and Asia. The leadership change announced today by Pioneer Investments could well be related with these conversations.
In 2013 Santander entered into an alliance that gave the private equity firms Warburg Pincus and General Atlantic a 50 percent stake in its asset management operations.
Juan Fierro has been appointed as the new Sales Manager with Henderson Global Investors for the Iberian market. He will be working in Madrid, Spain from January 2015.
Henderson Global Investors’ has a strong commitment to the Iberian market. Spain in particular, has been one of the biggest contributors to the growth of Henderson’s European business.
Juan will report to Ignacio de la Maza, Director of Sales Iberia & Latin America, and he will be responsible for the wholesale market in the Iberian Peninsula.
Juan makes a welcome new addition to the team in Iberia, whose members already include both Rafael Bonmati and Paul Southgate.
Most recently, Juan was a Risk Analyst with the Investment Risk Team also at Henderson Global Investors, where he has been for more than six years. Before joining Henderson in 2009, he worked for New Star, and Banco Santander.
Commenting on the appointment, Ignacio de la Maza, said, “Juan has in depth experience of both the asset management sector and Henderson’s product offering.
His investment risk experience adds great value to the existing presence that Henderson has in Spain. This is another step forward in structuring a solid team to serve our clients in the region.”
Interest rates and bond yields are both at historic lows, to the point that one may think that there is no scope for further reductions. But Harald Preissler, Chief Investment Officer, Chief Economist, and Head of Asset Management at the Swiss management company, Bantleon, does not think so: he believes that low asset yields will remain for a while, “they will remain low over the next five years, and will not rise too high,” he explained during this interview with Funds Society, and he argues that there may still be scope for further reductions in the coming months.
“With the economic downturn in Europe, in 2015 we could see yields even lower than the current ones,” he says; although he acknowledges that the margin is not large. Preissler explains that bonds need not again have high returns, or undergo high volatility, in order to generate returns in the portfolios, but they are able to generate alpha if yields move in around 1% -2%.
Their management is based primarily on analyzing the economic cycle: whereas, in periods of greater strength, they opt for high yield, credit, emerging market debt, or convertibles, if the situation worsens, as has happened this year, they go back to gaining exposure to public debt, which currently represents most of the portfolios of the Bantleon Opportunities funds. It’s currently overweight in German government bonds while recognizing that if the situation improves in 2015, as expected, they will opt more heavily towards credit and high yield debt. These strategies, which can invest in European bonds, currently avoid peripheral debt because they want highly liquid assets, although it does have this asset in other portfolios.
They have two sources for profitability: duration management and the incorporation, or not, of equity. As for duration, it now stands at about four years (Opportunities funds’ conservative strategy can range from 0 to 7 and the aggressive ones between 0 and 9). “If the situation becomes complicated, we are long in duration, in order to benefit from the transfer of capital from risky assets to safer assets”; and if the situation changes, they do the opposite.
The weak economic environment not only explains their opting for German government bonds, but also their current lack of exposure to equities in flexible strategies which allow it. “The economic data is weak and the technical data indicates caution, so we prefer to be out of the stock market,” he explains, although if the situation stabilizes they will invest once more. The funds include this asset in a binary way through DAX futures (i.e. they are either invested, or not invested): for the conservative strategy they have either 0% or 20%, and for the aggressive one, either nothing or 40%.
This combination can be explained by the desire to have, at least, one source of alpha in the portfolio. “When the situation improves and fixed income yields go up, should there be exposure only to bonds, there would be no source of alpha, unless they opt for negative duration, which is somewhat more complicated from the technical point of view than exposure to the stock market. In that case, the stock market provides a source of alpha.”
QE towards late 2015?
Preissler envisions a difficult economic outlook for Europe, with growth declining but without recession, although he believes that, with the help of a weaker euro, the situation will improve next year. Should the economy fail to recover, however, he believes that the ECB could act with a real QE. For now, it would suffice with a QE in the private market, and Germany would stop at that, but should the situation worsen, purchases of public debt will come at the end of next year or in early 2016. “In the end, Draghi has no other means of improving things than to buy government debt, there is not much else he can do if another period of economic weakness comes along,” he says.
European banks will not help the recovery because, in his opinion, there is no demand for credit and companies have cash to undertake investments outside Europe; therefore approved stress tests do not involve a change in the situation.
Across the Atlantic, the Fed could start raising rates in the second quarter of next year and the management company is positioned for that movement, although they rule out sharp rises which may endanger a recovery which is still weak, and taking into account the real estate industry’s sensitivity to those increases. “US cannot afford it,” he says.
Opportunities in emerging markets
For the Bantleon Opportunities strategy, the manager believes that there is value in other fixed income assets in addition to European public debt. In their multi-asset strategy, Bantleon Family and Friends, they have, also with a duration of four years in debt assets, positions in credit, although he has cut down somewhat in high yield. As well as in European government debt, although peripheral this time, including Spanish debt, these positions were built in early 2012 and are still overweight.
15% is in equities, some US but especially in emerging countries, in which it’s overweight, as he considers that the weakness of last year, which resulted from the end of QE in the US, has faded and the situation will improve. It also has 7% in gold as a hedge against potential crises.
Bantleon manages over 10 billion Euros. Capital Strategies Partners, specializing in mutual funds brokerage, represents Bantleon in Latin America and Spain.
Looking into 2015, it’s a good moment to review both the most important issues of 2014 and the challenges we face for next year. Philip Saunders, Co-Head of Multi-Asset at Investec Asset Management highlights the outlook for 2015, which will come marked by a deflationist environment and the strength of equity markets.
What has surprised you the most in 2014?
I think what has surprised me the most was the market’s resilience to macro negatives throughout most of 2014 until October. We saw a long period when we did not see any meaningful correction despite some fairly serious threats in the form of ISIS and energy, lacklustre European growth and the weakness of the Chinese economy. In the autumn we saw a more conventional correction and that, I think, is generally healthy for the markets.
What is your outlook for global growth for 2015?
Our outlook for global growth in 2015 is relatively constructive. We think some of the concerns about economic weakness in the short term are overdone. Although we are not expecting a blisteringly strong global economy in 2015 it should continue to register positive growth in the vicinity of just over 3% internationally, which is very similar to the experience we have had over a number of years. The composition of that growth has shifted. It has moved away from emerging economies, where we have seen weaker growth, towards a stronger US economy, which seems to be firing on a lot of domestic cylinders, including energy. Weakness in China will probably continue, but it is a growth recession and we think that expectations for Europe are excessively negative. We think the general growth backdrop will be supportive for equity markets. The global economy is not going to race away and we think that interest rates are likely to remain low. Inflation prints around the world are likely come in at pretty low levels allowing central banks to pursue easy monetary policies, which should support growth.
What type of growth are we currently seeing and how does this affect market cycles?
The kind of growth we are currently seeing is pretty anaemic and unbalanced. Many economies are at different points in cycles, which we call asynchronous growth, i.e. it is not synchronised and therefore it is still positive, but it is not as dynamic as we have seen in periods in the past when all economies have tended to strengthen on a coordinated basis. That is quite good for investors because overly strong growth tends to result in inflation, which tends to encourage central banks to tighten policy. We are not seeing that and we do not think that we will see that for some time. Low inflation, low interest rates and a long economic cycle are constructive for equity markets in particular and also means that real long-term interest rates do not have to rise as much as would otherwise have to be the case.
What are the biggest risks to these views?
We think that the biggest risk is on the deflationary side rather than the inflationary side. We think that inflation is unlikely to be a problem because we are in a fundamentally disinflationary environment. Global growth is unbalanced at the moment because it is overly dependent on the performance of the US economy. We think the US economy is going to perform just fine and that will help to underpin growth internationally at a time when other economies are having to adapt. However, if the US economy were to weaken significantly that would compromise our global growth outlook, which will raise risks and affect corporate earnings. Our equity view depends on constructive corporate earnings. In practice, the corporate sector is performing better than national economies and we expect that to continue.
How are you positioning your portfolios?
Our portfolios currently reflect a strategic bias towards equities. We think that equity markets are fairly valued at current levels and we think that they are supported generally by an improving earnings dynamic. We also prefer equities within the growth space to other growth assets, such as high yield bonds or emerging market debt. The skew towards equities is less than in the post summer of 2012 period, but is still positive. That is balanced by defensive assets. We continue to be happy to hold bonds, even though yields are relatively low at the moment, simply because we see the principal risk to our primary scenario as being a deflationary one. This would result in undermining the prospects of earnings and it would mean that yields would fall even lower than they are at currently.
The Board of Banco Santander today announced the appointment of José Antonio Álvarez as Chief Executive Officer replacing Javier Marín.
It also announced the appointments of:
Bruce Carnegie-Brown, as first Vice Chairman and lead independent director of the Board;
Sol Daurella and Carlos Fernández as independent Board directors;
Rodrigo Echenique, a current non executive Board Member, as Vice Chairman. The three new independent directors will fill the vacancies left by the death of Emilio Botín and the resignation of Fernando de Asúa and Abel Matutes.
José Antonio Álvarez, prior to his appointment as CEO, served 10 highly successful years as Chief Financial Officer at Banco Santander. His tenure has received wide external recognition for best industry practices specifically in the areas of Investor Relations and transparency. As a result of Mr. Álvarez’ move, several other senior management changes have been made, each by promotion of internal executives.
José García Cantera will assume the responsibilities of Banco Santander CFO. Mr. García Cantera was a top-ranked bank analyst at Citi before serving as CEO of Banesto, a leading bank in efficiency, balance sheet strength and customer satisfaction that was integrated with Santander Spain in 2013. Replacing Mr. Cantera as the global head of Santander Global Banking and Markets (SGBM) will be Jacques Ripoll, previously the head of SGBM in Santander UK.
These appointments will take effect from 1 January 2015 and are subject to regulatory approvals.
Ana Botín, Group Executive Chairman, said: “On behalf of the Board, I would like to express our gratitude to Javier Marín, for his great work for Banco Santander for 23 years and especially for his service as CEO. During his two years in this role, he has led the commercial transformation of our bank, bringing innovative management to lead our customer segmentation and service improvement initiatives, while also improving our profitability and efficiency”. “We would also like to acknowledge the contributions to our Board of Fernando de Asúa and Abel Matutes, whose work has been crucial to our success”.
“The financial services industry today faces many important challenges. But Banco Santander is uniquely well-positioned to succeed, thanks to our strong local retail and comercialbanking presence in 10 European and American markets. Our leadership team’s vision is to create a bank that is “Simple, Personal and Fair” for our teams, our customers, our shareholders and communities”, Ana Botin said.
The Banco Santander Board will now have 15 members, of which nine are independent, with highly relevant and current management experience in diverse business sectors with strong customer-focused expertise. Five members — 33 percent — are women, and represent a wide diversity of international perspectives, including the US, the UK, Mexico and Spain.
Brent crude, the benchmark world oil price, has tumbled by 22% in the year to date, sending a barrel of oil down to $84 in early November, its lowest level in over five years and below the cost of producing it for many countries.
However the ability of the world’s leading oil cartel, OPEC, to cut production levels in order to artificially raise the oil price is quite limited, says Léon Cornelissen. In fact, the leading Middle Eastern producers have been strangely quiet on the issue, partly because they could wage a price war with the US, he says.
The US shale oil revolution has been partly responsible for massively raising supply, as it cuts its dependence on Arab oil, while at the same time demand for oil is falling as cash-strapped consumers use less fuel, and as countries resort to using greener power.
“The oil market has experienced a perfect storm from supply and demand side developments in recent months,” says Cornelissen. “On the one hand, the oil market is currently experiencing a supply boom – the strong production volumes generated by the continuing oil revolution in the US has surprised everyone. US oil output is now running at the fastest pace since measurement began in 1983.”
“At the same time the macroeconomic growth momentum of the global economy has slowed, leading to a less bright demand outlook for oil. The International Energy Authority cut its estimates for global oil demand growth by 250,000 barrels a day for 2014 and by 90,000 barrels a day for 2015.”
“So the question that is now prevalent is whether the oil market is going to rebalance next year and if so, in which way this rebalancing process is going to take shape.”
Benefits of low oil price
Cornelissen says the low oil price is mostly beneficial to the West, with research showing that a drop of more than 20% in oil prices typically generates an additional 0.4% in real GDP growth. This is mainly caused by consumers getting more spending power as fuel prices drop.
Investors should also remember that OPEC, a collective of 12 highly diverse and often troubled countries from Angola to Venezuela, is not always unified, Cornelissen says. “The reluctance to cut production by Saudi Arabia could also be aimed at bringing more alignment and discipline among OPEC producers for a more meaningful production cut later on,” he says.
“History (and game theory) has shown OPEC members to have an incentive to ‘cheat’ on production levels that were agreed at OPEC meetings, and the Saudis could use the recent price drop to increase their leverage over non-abiding members. It means the discussion at the forthcoming OPEC meeting on 27 November will be as tense as it will be crucial, as Venezuela has been calling for a production cut.”
‘History has shown OPEC members to cheat on production levels’
No ‘game of chicken’ with the West
Cornelissen says that OPEC may contemplate a ‘game of chicken’ with the US, given that many US oil producers are also suffering from the low oil price, and therefore they may be tempted to cut production themselves. However, this is countered by the scale of the US shale oil revolution and American political resolve to stop being reliant on the Middle East following the Iraq wars and continuing tension with Iran. And such a policy might also backfire within OPEC members, he says.
In the US, Cornelissen believes that the dominant strategy is likely to be a continuing increase in production. “The lack of OPEC-like coordination mechanisms in the US industry and its history of maximizing output instead of cashflow leaves us with the view that the US oil revolution will continue,” he says.
Headwinds against oil price hikes
Further out, Cornelissen believes that headwinds for a rebound in oil prices will remain strong due to the impact of non-OPEC members such as Russia, which is one of the world’s largest producers. “Even if there is a production cut by OPEC, non-OPEC supply will be encouraged to rise even further in reaction,” he says. “Struggling emerging economies like Russia, Mexico and Brazil are clearly in need of additional oil revenues and will react with higher output if prices are propped up by OPEC.”
Another impediment is the steadily appreciating dollar, he says. “A stronger dollar, as we expect for 2015, will be troublesome for the oil market as well because this makes the oil bill for importers outside the US more expensive.”
“Therefore, our view is that oil prices are going to stabilize, but a significant rebound back to the USD 100-115 per barrel bracket will not happen next year. Prices will likely drift higher, but remain below USD 90 for Brent.”
I often hear about the connection between the bond-buying actions of the US Federal Reserve and the rise in stock prices. Indeed, the two do appear to have moved higher in tandem. The S&P 500 Index is up almost 200% since 2009, while the Fed has added trillions to its balance sheet to provide the US economy with extra liquidity to fuel growth and create jobs.
Something else has been happening during the same period, and I would like to draw attention to that. Not only have bond purchases and liquidity measures gone up on the Fed’s actions, but earnings have also risen — in the economy as a whole and by about 190% in particular for the companies traded on the major exchanges.
Over long periods of time, the observed behavior of stock markets has been directly linked to the amount of profits created by companies. That the market is up roughly in line with earnings over five years suggests to me that profitability has been much more of a driving force than Fed liquidity.
As I see it, there are five reasons why this is so important for investors to consider.
First, S&P 500 profits have continued to expand throughout this business cycle, well beyond the bounce that could be expected from recession-induced lows. Even in the third quarter, more than five years into the cycle, profits have risen at a rate of about 8.5% year over year as the US economy has regained momentum.
Second, the performance of companies in the major indices has been so robust that profits increased even when the US economy was shrinking. In the first quarter, the US government reported that economic activity contracted by an inflation-adjusted 2.1% — effectively a mini-recession. Earnings rarely, if ever, expand in the face of a shrinking economy, yet we saw that when first-quarter profits rose 4.5% year over year.
Third, the net profit margin —that is, the profit booked per dollar of sales— has continued to rise. To achieve profit margins that now exceed long-term averages by 100%, companies have limited their costs and improved their productivity to a dramatic degree — producing more goods and services per labor hour worked, turning assets more quickly, realizing lower natural gas costs, reaping the advantages of lower interest expense and so on.
Fourth, the gains in profits and profit margins are showing encouraging signs of breadth, occurring simultaneously in nearly all sectors and industries — including the much maligned health care and technology sectors.
Fifth, the US economy is expanding, almost alone among the major economies in the world. In fact, evidence is piling up that the US cycle is moving forward with solid support from consumer income, capital spending, pent-up demand, competitive improvements in global sales, wage gains and falling unemployment rates.
Won’t get fooled again
The investment world is on the lookout for bubbles, wary of asset categories filled with little but air, ready to be punctured by the slightest jab of interest rate increases or the withdrawal of government-injected liquidity. After all, only six years ago the collapse of credit pierced a genuine bubble in the housing market. No one who has sacrificed hard-earned savings to market breakdowns and defaults wants to be fooled again.
But today, there is no major flood of credit sweeping prices upward. Companies and consumers have demonstrated more responsibility with their borrowing. When the private sector borrows, incomes and cash flows are now supporting that debt.
So I agree, let’s not be fooled again. At the same time, let’s not suppose that the Fed is powerful enough to drive up profits in all categories when energy prices, labor costs and asset turnover are helping companies do well. In my view, the market cannot ignore the truly impressive results coming not from a world of liquidity, but from a world of real economy improvements.
Pioneer Investments announced that Craig Anzlovar has been named Fixed Income Client Portfolio Manager. He is based in Boston.
“Pioneer has one of the industry’s strongest and most tenured fixed-income teams, and we have a continued focus on providing the highest level of service possible to our growing client base, said Kenneth Taubes, Chief Investment Officer, U.S. “We’re pleased to have someone with Craig’s experience joining us”.
Prior to joining Pioneer, Craig was a fixed income Institutional Portfolio Manager at Fidelity Investments, and a member of the firm’s liability-driven investing (LDI) strategy team. In this role, he was responsible for developing custom LDI solutions for institutional clients. He was also responsible for client servicing and representing the firm’s fixed income strategies to the marketplace. Prior to that Craig was an Investment Director at Fidelity responsible for product management and client servicing for the firm’s institutional high yield, bank loan and emerging market debt strategies.
“Pioneer has one of the industry’s strongest and most tenured fixed-income teams, and we have a continued focus on providing the highest level of service possible to our growing client base, said Kenneth Taubes, Chief Investment Officer, U.S. “We’re pleased to have someone with Craig’s experience joining us,” he added. As of Sept. 30, Pioneer Investments managed approximately $148 billion in fixed income asset globally, including approximately $40 billion in the U.S.
Craig earned his B.S. from Fairfield University and his M.B.A. from Babson College. He is a CFA® Charterholder and a member of the Boston Security Analysts Society.