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“We Will End Up Having Fewer and Fewer Government Bonds in Our Portfolios Because We Will Consider Them Increasingly Risky Assets”

ma in asset management alternatives — Photo courtesyPaul Jackson, Global Head of Asset Allocation Research at Invesco for EMEA.

Paul Jackson, Global Head of Asset Allocation Research at Invesco for EMEA, recently outlined his outlook and favorite assets for the year during a meeting held in Miami, as part of the presentation of the partnership between Invesco and LarrainVial.

Jackson expects 2026 to be “just as good” as 2025 and believes that the strong market performance this year will be driven, first, by the continued easing of monetary policy by several central banks, including the Federal Reserve, for which he forecasts between two and three interest rate cuts in 2026. According to Jackson, the Bank of England will follow a similar path. This easing, “after a couple of years of very aggressive rate cuts by almost all central banks around the world,” has led to an acceleration in money supply and “normally this is associated with stronger economic growth and perhaps higher inflation over the long term.”

There are exceptions to this scenario. Here Jackson points to the Bank of Japan, which will raise rates for some time. He also mentions Australia, following its recent rate hike. However, this will not prevent a boost to global economic growth.

Another factor that will accelerate economies is the increase in real wages across most regions, which “should boost consumer spending,” especially in areas such as Europe, where savings rates are “unusually high.” In the United States, that momentum will come from wage inflation exceeding price inflation.

Third, economic growth will also be supported by selective fiscal stimulus. Jackson mentions the expected increase in military spending in many European countries, alongside Germany’s “significant” infrastructure spending program. He also points to Sweden which, given its proximity to Russia, “feels the need to increase military spending.” Japan is an “interesting” case for Jackson, as Prime Minister Sanei Takeuchi is “very interested” in increasing fiscal stimulus in Japan.

Asset Allocation for the Year

Jackson notes that, in general, stronger economic growth benefits cyclical assets such as industrial commodities and equities, as well as higher-risk assets overall. However, he sees factors that could prove destabilizing.

The main one is the U.S. midterm elections, which “usually trigger a shift against the president’s party.” The consensus view is that Democrats will win the House of Representatives, but not the Senate, although Jackson has the “slight suspicion” that Democrats could win both chambers. “It will be difficult, because they need to gain four seats from the 22 Republican seats up for election, but I suspect they could achieve it.”

He also sees few opportunities in duration. Jackson points to the numbers: short-duration assets still offer low yields, while longer-duration assets—such as government bonds, investment-grade and high-yield bonds, as well as equities and real estate—offer returns similar to or even below historical averages.

For example, he expects the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury to rise to at least 4.3% by the end of the year. “That’s why when I think about government bonds, investment grade and high yield, my stance is, at best, neutral, with a bias toward underweight.” Jackson prefers assets such as leveraged loans and believes AAA-rated CLOs “are a cash-like asset, but enhanced,” while generating the same return as high-yield bonds “but with much lower volatility.”

Regarding equity markets, he holds a very underweight position in the U.S. market, as he considers it “too expensive.” One alternative would be “to buy a nuclear-energy-weighted index, or focus on the banking sector.”

Jackson acknowledges that several Latin American markets offer value, although within global equities he particularly highlights China, which remains “cheaper than usual” relative to its historical average and “much cheaper” than the United States. His conviction is strong: “I have maximum exposure to Chinese equities,” he said. In fact, he is overweight emerging markets, Europe, Japan, and the United Kingdom, which offer “interesting returns.”

He is also interested in industrial metals—copper, aluminum, lead, etc.—because they are sensitive to the economic cycle. Even energy appeals to him, “where valuations are more reasonable,” and which should benefit from his scenario of an expansionary economic cycle.

In currencies, he highlights the Japanese yen, which he believes “is very cheap.” The Bank of Japan “needs to raise rates,” and as long as it continues to do so while the Fed eases monetary policy, “the yen will strengthen considerably.” As a complement, in Japan it is now possible “to obtain yields above 3.5% on 30- or 40-year bonds in a very cheap currency.”

Risks to Watch

Jackson believes it is always important to consider what could go wrong. The first obvious risk is being wrong about the economic cycle—namely a slowdown or mild recession. In that case, defensive instruments would be needed: “Bank loans and CLOs would work, but government bonds would also be very good.”

The second risk would be a rebound in inflation, which “is no longer declining steadily around the world.” He acknowledges that many investors believe gold could be useful in those circumstances, although it does not always work as such.

The third risk would be the implications of Kevin Walsh being appointed chair of the Federal Reserve. “Walsh’s track record is not that moderate,” Jackson notes, recalling that recent statements by the new Fed chair contain elements suggesting the Federal Reserve could be more restrictive than Donald Trump would like. “We could face some unpleasant surprises,” he said.

Fourth is the concentration of the U.S. equity market, although Jackson clarifies that he sees this factor as “a risk not only for the U.S. market but also for global equity markets.”

The fifth risk he highlights is a resurgence of debt problems. “If governments do not do the right thing, we will probably end up talking about the return of the gold standard, and then we could become very optimistic about gold. My gold standard calculation suggests gold should be at $9,300,” the expert predicted. Strategically, he concludes, over time “we will end up having fewer and fewer government bonds in our portfolios because we will consider them increasingly risky assets.”

Aristotle’s List of 10 Surprises for 2026

Jackson also used the Miami event to present his “Aristotle List,” a compilation of ten major surprises for the year inspired by the list Byron Wee used to publish at Morgan Stanley. In a relaxed setting, the expert shared ideas that diverge from market consensus and that, if confirmed, could deliver strong gains for investors.

The first prediction refers to Democrats controlling both chambers of Congress after the midterm elections. Next comes the possibility that the Russell 3000 index will outperform the group of the Magnificent Seven. The podium is completed by the prediction that the yen will appreciate to 140 yen per dollar, from more than 150 currently.

The list also includes the expectation that the yield on the 30-year UK government bond will end the year below its U.S. counterpart, and that Argentine bonds will outperform global indices. In addition, European CO₂ allowances could surge above $100, compared with around $70 currently.

He also expressed confidence that the Kenya stock market will perform well for a third consecutive year. “It’s a small market and I doubt anyone has analyzed it,” Jackson said. Each year he tries to highlight a frontier market “where valuations are really attractive and fundamentals remain good. And I think Kenya is the ideal candidate.”

He also predicts that gold could fall below $3,500. “Gold is expensive. It is trading between five and six standard deviations above its historical real value. Everyone loves a rising asset, but I have the slight suspicion that it won’t last the whole year,” he concluded.

Outside the economic sphere, Jackson sees it as likely that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will still be in office by the end of 2026. Finally, his sporting prediction—after correctly forecasting last year that Europe would beat the United States in the Ryder Cup—is that Spain and England will play in the final of the FIFA World Cup hosted by the United States, Mexico, and Panama. England will reach the final after defeating Argentina in the semifinals, but Jackson’s prediction is that Spain will lift the trophy.

Jackson’s final message to attendees at the event was an invitation to be happy: “Academic studies show that being kind to others makes you feel better. So don’t be selfish, and don’t trust anyone who is addicted,” he said.

Diversification, Defensive Strategies, And Advisory: The Three Needs Identified by Advisors

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

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Equity markets have started 2026 with significant volatility. According to Mary Ann Bartels, CIO at Sanctuary Wealth, this reflects the typical turbulence associated with midterm election years, which are usually marked by corrections followed by strong rebounds. Despite the challenges, the S&P 500 aligns with historical patterns, supporting an optimistic outlook and emphasizing the importance of diversification.

In the view of Marlen Lopez, Senior Wealth Advisor and Founding Partner at Excelsis Global Private Wealth, for Latin American investors the main market drivers for this year include currency performance, commodity prices, and global exposure. “The U.S. dollar has weakened for three years while global reserve currencies such as the euro and the yen have strengthened. This has allowed them to benefit from greater exposure to non-dollar-denominated assets, mitigating risks arising from local currency volatility and taking advantage of foreign exchange opportunities. Maintaining a well-diversified portfolio across regions, sectors, and asset classes remains crucial to effectively manage risks and capitalize on global opportunities in a market that is increasingly stable but also more segmented,” Lopez says.

As a result, clients have adopted a diversified approach to mitigate market volatility and have leaned toward defensive strategies in search of stability, including investments in less volatile sectors such as Consumer Staples and Utilities, which offer stable returns. “We have seen the implementation of high-dividend equity strategies in uncertain markets and international diversification, especially in developed and emerging markets, which posted strong returns in 2025. Positioning is leaning toward taking advantage of corrections as buying opportunities, following the bullish projection for the S&P 500 in 2026,” she notes.

Compared with other years, Lopez has detected significant changes in asset allocation. In particular, she observes a greater emphasis on international equities and stronger demand for mixed fixed income. “The entry of the MSCI EAFE and Japan’s TOPIX into bull markets has led investors to increase global exposure to capture the superior returns recorded in 2025. Meanwhile, in fixed income, despite the mixed performance of the domestic bond market, high-grade investment assets continue to attract interest due to their currently competitive yields,” she says. She also acknowledges an increase in the weight of metals and commodities, as well as an adjustment in positions in technology.

EM, ETFs, and Alternatives

So far, Lopez has explained how investors have been feeling and how they have moved their portfolios, but her analysis goes a step further. She explains that diversification in developed markets such as Japan and in emerging markets continues to be a priority for investors due to the strong projected gains. “The growing need to mitigate concentrated risks has also led to greater adoption of strategies that include exposure to foreign currencies such as the euro, in addition to the U.S. dollar, expanding currency hedging within portfolios.”

On the other hand, she highlights that demand for ETFs will continue to grow in 2026 thanks to their ability to provide diversified access to specific sectors and global strategies while optimizing costs. “Offshore ETFs that trade in the International Quotation System (SIC) continue to be an attractive resource for Mexican investors, as they offer unique tax advantages and allow exposure to foreign currencies such as the euro (EUR) and the yen (JPY), along with USD, expanding flexibility and return potential in diversified portfolios,” she notes.

Beyond these trends, the expert from Excelsis Global Private Wealth makes it clear that the renewed interest in alternative assets as a source of diversification and protection against volatility has not been a one-off phenomenon. According to her, the most prominent assets and strategies are private credit, infrastructure, and hedge funds.

Filtering the Noise

Beyond asset allocation, what role are financial advisors playing? According to the team at Klosters, advisors have gained weight as “translators of noise.” “The market speaks in a language of algorithms and alarmist headlines, and our job is to translate that into our clients’ objectives. We don’t just report returns. We focus our support on managing expectations. In an overinformed world, our value is saying ‘this is 24-hour noise’ vs. ‘this is a structural change that affects your wealth,’” they explain.

Fernando de Frutos, CIO of Boreal Capital Management, goes a step further and notes that rather than “translators,” advisors have become a “filter” in the face of unlimited access to information and investor saturation. “The challenge is no longer accessing data, but distinguishing signal from noise,” Frutos says. When acting as a “filter,” he starts from the premise that the current geopolitical situation is more volatile than it was 10 or 20 years ago, but not necessarily more than it was 40 or 50 years ago during the Cold War—or even a century ago. “Many comparisons are made with the so-called ‘Pax Americana,’ which reached its peak in the 1990s after the fall of the Berlin Wall, when China was just beginning its economic and military rise. It is worth keeping perspective: that period was probably a historical exception, not the norm,” Frutos recalls.

It is nothing new that advisors have gone through different market events and shocks, but as pointed out by Grey Capital, what matters is putting what has been learned at the service of investors. “The lesson has been consistent: the wealth portfolios that navigate change best are not those that react the fastest, but those that are best structured and governed. In complex contexts, discipline and perspective are more valuable than speed. Every crisis teaches the same thing: those who have structure can wait; those who don’t are forced to react, and that is a major risk,” says Catherine Ruz Parada, partner at Grey Capital Latam.

The Guide to the Women Leading the Asset Management Industry

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

vision de vinci compass ante volatilidad — Photo courtesy

There is limited research on the weight and presence of women in senior leadership roles within the asset and wealth management industry. However, one of the few recent data points available, published by Heidrick & Struggles, estimates that among the world’s 50 largest asset managers, only 20% of leadership positions are held by women. Even more striking, only 3% of the CEOs at these firms are women.

To mark International Women’s Day, Funds Society turns the spotlight on that 3%, offering a brief guide to the firms where women are leading companies in the asset and wealth management industry, as well as an overview of their professional careers.

Abigail Johnson

President and CEO of Fidelity Investments since 2014 (U.S.). She is responsible for the executive leadership of the firm’s corporate operations and administrative functions, as well as all of the company’s diversified business units, including asset management, retail and institutional brokerage, and workplace retirement and benefits services. She was named President in September 2013, assumed the role of Chief Executive Officer in October 2014, and became Chair of the Board in December 2016. Johnson earned a degree in Art History from Hobart and William Smith Colleges in 1984 and an MBA from Harvard Business School in 1988. She is also a member of the Board of Dean’s Advisors at Harvard Business School and of the Corporation of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Ariane de Rothschild

CEO of Edmond de Rothschild (Europe). Since 2023, Ariane de Rothschild, who was born in San Salvador, has spent much of her life between Latin America, Europe, and Africa. She began her career in New York on the trading desk of Société Générale. In 1997, Ariane de Rothschild took charge of the family’s non-banking activities and consolidated them under the Edmond de Rothschild Héritage brand. She significantly modernized and expanded the group’s wine and hospitality businesses, continuing a long-standing tradition. In 2006, Ariane de Rothschild joined the Board of Directors of Edmond de Rothschild Holding, and in 2013 she transformed the family’s banking activities by bringing them together under a single brand: Edmond de Rothschild. Under her leadership, the group has expanded its offering, strengthened its position as a 100% family-owned investment firm, and achieved both strong economic success and a deep cultural transformation.

Catherine D. Wood

CEO, Founder, and Chief Investment Officer of ARK Invest (U.S.). Cathie Wood registered ARK Investment Management LLC (“ARK”) as an investment advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in January 2014. As Chief Investment Officer and portfolio manager, Cathie Wood led the development of ARK’s investment philosophy and approach and is ultimately responsible for the firm’s investment decisions. Before founding ARK, Cathie Wood spent twelve years at AllianceBernstein as Chief Investment Officer of Global Thematic Strategies, where she managed more than 5 billion dollars. She joined Alliance Capital from Tupelo Capital Management, a hedge fund she co-founded that managed approximately 800 million dollars in global thematic strategies in 2000. Prior to her time at Tupelo Capital, she spent 18 years at Jennison Associates LLC as Chief Economist, Equity Research Analyst, Portfolio Manager, and Director. She began her career in Los Angeles, California, at The Capital Group as an Assistant Economist. Cathie Wood graduated with honors in Finance and Economics from the University of Southern California in 1981.

Jasna Ofak

CEO and Chair of the Executive Committee of Swisscanto Asset Management International S.A. (Europe). In her role, she leads the firm’s strategy and international development, offering investment solutions to institutional clients and global distributors through its European hub in Luxembourg. As CEO, Ofak leads the executive team responsible for operations, risk management, compliance, and the development of the asset manager’s international business, supporting the expansion of its investment solutions across Europe and other markets.

Jean Hynes

CEO of Wellington Management (U.S.). She oversees nearly 3,000 employees across 16 offices in North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific (APAC). Her strategic priorities include the firm’s globalization, advancing diversity, equity, and inclusion, integrating technology across the business, and positioning the company for the future of active management. Over the course of nearly 30 years at Wellington, Jean Hynes has analyzed the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors, and has also served as a health care sector portfolio manager and leader of the Health Care team. She is one of five female CEOs among the world’s 20 largest asset managers and has received multiple industry awards. Since 2014, Jean Hynes has been one of the firm’s three managing partners, jointly responsible for the governance of Wellington Management. She is based in the firm’s Boston office.

Jenny Johnson

CEO of Franklin Templeton (U.S.). Over a career spanning more than 35 years, Jenny Johnson has held leadership roles across all major divisions of the firm’s business, including investment management, distribution, technology, operations, and wealth management, before becoming Chief Executive Officer in February 2020. In recent years, she has led the evolution of the firm’s business, further diversifying its investment capabilities and client solutions through strategic acquisitions and key investments. She has also been included for four consecutive years in Forbes’ list of the “World’s 100 Most Powerful Women” and has appeared every year since 2020 in Barron’s list of the “100 Most Influential Women in U.S. Finance.” In 2024, the Committee for Economic Development, the public policy center of The Conference Board, awarded her the Distinguished Leadership Award. Johnson holds a B.A. in Economics from the University of California, Davis.

Karin van Baardwijk

CEO of Robeco (Europe). Karin van Baardwijk is Chief Executive Officer of Robeco and Chair of the Executive Committee. She previously served as Deputy CEO, Chief Operating Officer, Head of Global Information Services, and Head of Operational Risk Management at Robeco.

Karin van Baardwijk began her career in the financial sector in 2004 at Atos Consulting. She holds a master’s degree in Business Economics and a master’s degree in Corporate Law from Utrecht University.

Kate Burke

CEO of Allspring Global Investments (U.S.). In addition to serving as CEO, Kate Burke is a member of the Board of Directors of Allspring Global Investments. Prior to her current role, she served as President of Allspring after joining the firm in September 2023. She brings extensive industry experience spanning many aspects of the asset management business. Kate Burke joined Allspring from AllianceBernstein, where she most recently served as Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer. Before that, she was Head of Bernstein Private Wealth and Chief Administrative Officer. She has also served as the firm’s Chief Human Capital Officer and Chief Talent Officer. Kate Burke currently serves on the Board of Directors of the College of the Holy Cross and Cheekwood Estate & Gardens, where she is also a member of the executive committee. She holds a degree in Economics from the College of the Holy Cross and an MBA from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University.

Mary Callahan Erdoes

CEO of the Asset & Wealth Management division at JPMorgan Chase (U.S.). Since joining the firm 30 years ago, Mary Callahan Erdoes has held several leadership roles within Asset & Wealth Management before becoming its CEO in 2009 and joining the JPMorgan Chase Operating Committee, the firm’s highest leadership body. Mary Callahan Erdoes holds a degree in Mathematics from Georgetown University. She is a member of the Global Advisory Council at Harvard University, where she earned her MBA, as well as a member of the Board of Harvard Management Company and the U.S.-China Business Council. Erdoes lives in New York City and has three daughters.

Mellody Hobson

Co-CEO and Chair of Ariel Investment Trust (U.S.). As Co-CEO, Mellody Hobson is responsible for the management, strategic planning, and growth of all areas of Ariel. She also chairs the Board of Directors of Ariel Investments’ publicly traded mutual funds. Before being named Co-CEO, Mellody Hobson served for nearly two decades as President of Ariel. In 2025, she founded Project Level® to help change the landscape of women’s sports. Mellody Hobson also co-founded Ariel Alternatives, LLC in 2021 and its first private equity fund, Project Black®. In addition to Ariel, she serves as a director of JPMorgan Chase and is former Chair of Starbucks Corporation. Mellody Hobson was also a long-time board member of Estée Lauder Companies and served as Chair of DreamWorks Animation until the company’s sale in 2016. She is a well-known advocate for financial literacy and is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the Executive Committee of the Investment Company Institute, and LA28 Olympic and Paralympic Games. She earned her bachelor’s degree from the School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University. In 2019, Mellody Hobson received the Woodrow Wilson Award, the highest honor annually granted by Princeton University to an alumnus whose career reflects a commitment to national service. She has also received honorary doctorates from Howard University, Johns Hopkins University, St. Mary’s College, and the University of Southern California.

Mirela Agache Durand

CEO of Groupama AM (Europe). Appointed to this role in 2020, Mirela Agache Durand is a CFA charterholder and holds a PhD in plasma physics. She began her career in 1998 at Oddo & Cie, where she successively held roles as financial engineer, portfolio manager of balanced funds, and later head of the multi-asset and multi-manager investment team. In 2014, Mirela Agache Durand joined La Banque Postale Asset Management as Deputy Chief Investment Officer. Since 2017, she has served as CEO of Tocqueville Finance, a role she held simultaneously with her responsibilities as Co-CEO of LBPAM.

Valérie Baudson

CEO of Amundi (Europe). In May 2021, Valérie Baudson was appointed CEO of Amundi. Previously, since 2016, she had served as CEO of CPR AM, an Amundi subsidiary recognized for its active management capabilities in thematic and ESG funds. At that time, she also became a member of Amundi’s General Management Committee and took on oversight of the firm’s subsidiaries in Germany and Switzerland. Valérie Baudson joined Amundi in 2007 to lead the development of its ETF business, which would later become the largest player in Europe in this segment. In 2013, she joined Amundi’s Executive Committee and, in 2020, assumed global responsibility for the firm’s wholesale and wealth management division. Before joining Amundi, Valérie Baudson served as Secretary General and later Head of Marketing for Europe at Cheuvreux, the European brokerage subsidiary of the Crédit Agricole Group. She began her career in 1995 at Banque Indosuez, in the General Audit department. She is also a member of the Board of Directors of CA Indosuez Wealth and a board observer at PREDICA. In addition, she serves on the Strategic Committee of the Association Française de la Gestion Financière (AFG) and is President of the Investors’ College of Paris Europlace. In 2022, she was named Chevalier de la Légion d’Honneur (Knight of the French Legion of Honour). That same year, together with Yves Perrier, she received the Financier of the Year award granted by Andese (Association Nationale des Docteurs ès Sciences Économiques et en Sciences de Gestion). Valérie Baudson graduated from the business school HEC Paris.

Yie-Hsin Hung

President and CEO of State Street Investment Management (U.S.). In addition to her current roles, Yie-Hsin Hung is a member of the State Street Executive Committee, the company’s senior leadership team. She also co-leads the firm’s Corporate Strategy and Marketing functions and oversees the State Street Markets business. Before joining State Street, Yie-Hsin Hung served as CEO of New York Life Investment Management. In 2025, she was included in Barron’s list of the “100 Most Influential Women in U.S. Finance” and in American Banker’s list of the “25 Most Powerful Women in Finance.” In 2024, she was named to Forbes’ list of the “World’s 100 Most Powerful Women.” In 2023, Pensions & Investments recognized her as one of the “Most Influential Women in Institutional Investing.” She is a former Chair of the Board of Governors of the Investment Company Institute and serves on the Board of Trustees of Northwestern University, as well as being a member of C200, The Women’s Forum of New York, and the National Association of Corporate Directors. Yie-Hsin Hung holds an MBA from Harvard University and a Bachelor of Science in Mechanical Engineering from Northwestern University. In 2019, she received the Distinguished Alumni Medal, the highest honor awarded by the Northwestern Alumni Association.

War and Oil Reinforce the Dollar’s Safe-Haven Status

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

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The dollar has surged as investors flee to safe-haven assets following the war in Iran. For some analysts, this upward move dispels doubts and the debate over the dollar’s role as a safe-haven asset. An argument that appears to remain intact, given that it continues to maintain its traditional correlation with gold, which has shown a markedly opposite performance to that of the dollar.

“As is typical during periods of heightened market tension, the dollar has consolidated its position as the ultimate safe-haven asset thanks to its deep liquidity. It has also been supported by the rise in oil prices, as the United States is now a net energy exporter,” analysts at Ebury explain. More broadly, U.S. assets are clearly outperforming those in the rest of the world, reversing the “sell America” trend that dominated following last year’s tariff disputes.

The “War” Effect

The central scenario currently priced in by markets is a relatively short war, lasting around one month, in line with the estimates expressed by Trump. “As long as this time horizon remains plausible, further gains in the dollar could remain limited and may even give way to a correction if the conflict ends toward the end of the month or early April,” says Matthew Ryan, Head of Market Strategy at Ebury.

However, the expert warns that the main risk for markets would be a regional escalation of the conflict or a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could push oil prices above 100 dollars per barrel. In this context, European currencies—especially the euro, the Swedish krona, and the currencies of Central and Eastern Europe—have been among the hardest hit, partly due to their high sensitivity to rising gas prices, which in Europe have increased by nearly 50%.

“The Canadian dollar has emerged as another clear winner, thanks to Canada’s geographic isolation and its position as a net energy exporter. Alongside it, the Norwegian krone, also supported by oil, and the Swiss franc topped the currency performance rankings last week,” analysts at Ebury note.

From Trump to the Fed

In the view of Patrick Artus, Senior Economic Advisor at Ossiam AM, an affiliate of Natixis IM, Donald Trump wants a weaker dollar to improve U.S. price competitiveness. However, after the outbreak of the war in Iran, the dollar strengthened again. According to the expert, “Trump welcomes a depreciation of the dollar and would like the Fed to significantly cut its policy rates to amplify that depreciation.” However, he adds: “The Trump administration’s desire to weaken the dollar does not make economic sense. A deliberate policy of dollar depreciation risks triggering a balance-of-payments crisis in the United States, as the prospect of a weaker dollar would discourage foreign investors, would not significantly boost U.S. export volumes, and would increase the price of imports in the United States.”

In this regard, expectations for interest rate cuts in the United States have been revised far less aggressively than in Europe. “This is due to the smaller impact that rising oil prices could have on U.S. inflation compared with Europe. Futures markets are still comfortably pricing in at least one additional rate cut by the Federal Reserve before the end of 2026, with around a 50% probability that it could take place in June,” Ebury notes in its latest report.

Volatility in the Currency Market

For now, experts believe the U.S. dollar is likely to remain supported in the short term, as energy markets continue to price in potential supply disruptions. However, they warn that structural headwinds against the greenback remain in place. “We believe it is important for investors to manage their currency allocations, as potential government interventions could limit the weakness of some Asian currencies. In addition, structural factors weighing on the dollar remain present, and fiscal spending in Germany should provide additional support for the euro,” analysts at UBS Global Wealth Management emphasize.

According to Mark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, with currency volatility likely to remain elevated in the near term, “investors should manage their currency allocations to reduce the risk that large moves could undermine their financial objectives, including through the use of hedging tools.” He adds: “We continue to favor the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, the Norwegian krone, the Chinese yuan, and some other higher-yielding emerging market currencies in our global portfolios.”

Quality and Innovation at the Core of the Strategic Partnership Between LarrainVial and Invesco

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us investors increasing etf exposure — Photo courtesyPhoto of the LarrainVial team.

Expand the Market Through Quality is the proposal put forward by LarrainVial and Invesco. This approach underpins the strategic partnership both firms have established for LatAm and the U.S. offshore market, which they recently celebrated in the financial heart of Miami at an event sponsored by S&P Global. The event featured Rhett Baughan, Head of U.S. Offshore Distribution at Invesco; Andrés Bulnes, Partner and Global Head of Distribution at LarrainVial; Manuel González, Index Investment Strategy Specialist at S&P Dow Jones Indices; Paul Jackson, Global Market Strategist and Global Head of Asset Allocation Research at Invesco; and Joseph Nelesen, Head of Specialists, Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

In front of more than 150 members of the investment community, professionals from both firms discussed the main market trends and the future of investing, reaching a clear conclusion about how their partnership fits into the current industry landscape: only by joining forces through quality in education, product innovation, and market access will it be possible to expand markets. “Our agreement with Invesco reflects our commitment to our third-party distribution business, a strategic pillar of our business. It represents a long-term commitment to connecting global asset managers with institutional and private wealth clients across Latin American markets and the U.S. offshore market,” said Andrés Bulnes, Head of Institutional Distribution at LarrainVial.

According to Bulnes, the partnership is allowing the firm to move into a new phase that represents its natural evolution, with innovation at its core. “It strengthens our ETF capabilities, deepens our integration, and accelerates our ability to deliver differentiated, best-in-class investment solutions to investors. None of this would be possible without the strong leadership and alignment between our teams and those at Invesco,” Bulnes added.

Within the firm’s team, commercial efforts in the U.S. offshore market are led by María Elena Isaza and Julieta Henke, Managing Directors and Co-Heads of Sales for U.S. Offshore Distribution at LarrainVial, who in just seven years have helped grow the firm’s distributed assets to 13 billion dollars. They are joined by Alejandra Saldías, who will play a key role in designing the firm’s ETF sales strategy as Head of ETF Sales LatAm and U.S. Offshore, with the goal of extending LarrainVial’s ETF positioning in Latin America to the U.S. offshore market. At the same time, Rhett Baughan, Head of U.S. Offshore Distribution at Invesco, works in close coordination with the LarrainVial team to strengthen client relationships and broaden the reach of the firm’s offering in this segment.

Currently, LarrainVial manages 65 billion dollars in assets and operates across the Americas with more than 900 professionals, combining local expertise with global standards. “For more than 18 years, we have built a relationship based on discipline, execution, and consistent growth. Today in Latin America, we distribute more than 9 billion dollars in Invesco mutual funds and 16 billion dollars in its ETFs. In addition, our U.S. offshore business has grown over the past seven years to reach 13 billion dollars in assets, positioning us as a relevant distributor in this segment,” the LarrainVial executive noted.

U.S. Investors Most Likely to Increase Their ETF Exposure

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Brown Brothers & Harriman (BBH) has released its latest survey of managers on the global ETF industry. This 13th edition of the survey comes at a “turbulent moment,” according to the report, marked by “geopolitical tensions; a turbulent news cycle and a complex regulatory environment.” In short, “uncertainty abounds,” but “the ETF space is an area where optimism prevails,” according to the survey results.

The responses from the 325 ETF managers surveyed, 100 from the United States, 125 from Europe and another 100 from Greater China, suggest that demand for ETFs continues to grow even in a mature market, due in part to “the adoption of ETFs by new markets and channels.” In the short term, as the study reveals, global investors plan to adopt a balanced approach to secure income while also seeking protection against potential declines and volatility.

Almost all investors surveyed (96%) expect to increase their exposure to ETFs over the next 12 months, a percentage that has remained stable since February 2025. The appeal remains global, as investors in the United States are the most likely to increase their positions in exchange-traded funds (98%), followed by those in Greater China (95%) and Europe (94%).

However, a more detailed analysis of regional differences indicates varying levels of maturity in the ETF market. In the United States, the percentage of investors planning to significantly increase their exposure to exchange-traded funds this year was almost cut in half compared with 2025. Europe and Greater China also recorded small declines in plans to significantly increase ETF exposure. However, widespread increases were observed among those planning to slightly increase allocations (by less than 10%). No investor indicated plans to reduce exposure.

Points of Interest

In particular, over the next 12 months investors plan to invest in dividend/income strategies (33%), sector or thematic equity exposure (28%) and defined outcome ETFs (26%). As caution remains the priority, 20% also plan to acquire money market exchange-traded funds, which offer safety and liquidity with modest yields.

To a lesser extent, commodities are also on the menu. Despite the surge in precious metals in 2025, only 17% plan to increase their exposure to commodities, “a view that may be supported by the sector’s volatility in early 2026,” according to the study.

Preferences vary by region. In the United States, investors’ preferred option is defined outcome ETFs (37%), which also rank highly (54%) among the exchange-traded funds they are most likely to use to manage volatility over the next 12 months. However, dividend/income ETFs are the top priority in Europe (42%) and Greater China (27%).

Protection Against Downside Risk

Market volatility is a major concern in 2026 as investors face rising geopolitical tensions.

Globally, the preferred option for managing volatility over the next 12 months is low-volatility equities and defensive ETFs covering sectors such as utilities and consumer staples (57%).

The Art Market Continues to Be Complex and Relatively Opaque, So Advice Helps to Gain Transparency

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

mercados privados Mexico — Photo courtesy

Art is increasingly seen as an alternative asset in diversified portfolios, not only because of its potential returns but also because of its “hedonic” dimension, which means that, on average, high-net-worth individuals allocate around 15% of their wealth to it. And demand is growing. Elisa Hernando, founder and CEO of the art advisory ArteGlobaL, explains in this interview with Funds Society the importance of having expert advice, because not all artists appreciate in value, and the asset is not as transparent as others. She discusses this with us on the occasion of the opening of the ARCO fair in Madrid.

Has art gained prominence as a diversifier in investment portfolios?

Yes, it is increasingly considered an alternative asset within a diversified portfolio. But it is always worth remembering something important: not all works or all artists increase in value, so having information and expert guidance is essential.

Art also has something that other assets do not: a hedonic dimension. In other words, it provides enjoyment, knowledge, and cultural experience in addition to potential financial return. In fact, some studies suggest that high-net-worth individuals allocate on average around 15% of their wealth to art.

Beyond consulting firms… do financial institutions feel increasingly “compelled” to advise their clients on art?

Rather than compelled, I would say it is a growing demand from their own clients. As wealth becomes more diversified, more alternative assets appear, and art begins to form part of those conversations.

The art market remains complex and relatively opaque, so advice helps bring greater transparency and supports more informed decision-making.

How are clients evolving in their appetite for investing in art? Is there greater sophistication?

Yes, there is growing interest in understanding the market before making a purchase. Buyers ask more questions, compare options, and want information. We also see mixed motivations: some approach art out of cultural interest or a desire to learn, while others prioritize potential appreciation, although it is common for several motivations to coexist.

There are very diverse profiles, from newcomers to major investors. Do they all seek advice?

Advisory services can be useful for both profiles, although for different reasons. For those starting out, because the market can be overwhelming and they need guidance to filter options and understand pricing. For more experienced collectors or high-net-worth individuals, because they seek coherence in their collection and want to evaluate opportunities.

In a highly volatile environment, can art serve as a safe-haven asset like gold?

Art can preserve value in certain segments and over long time horizons, but it is less liquid than other assets. That is why I always stress that the selection of the work, knowledge of the artist, and expert guidance are key.

Tokenization is beginning to reach the art world. Do you think it will be adopted on a large scale?

Technology can help improve accessibility or transparency, but we are still at very early stages. In fact, the share of NFTs in auctions was only 0.1% in 2023, far from the speculative peak of 2021. We will probably see further developments, but value in the art market remains closely tied to the work, the artist, and the cultural context, not only to the technological format.

You are an advisor to the First Collector program of Fundación Santander, which marks its 15th anniversary at ARCO. What assessment do you make?

The assessment is very positive. Since it was created in 2011, we have advised more than 1,000 people on purchasing art at ARCO. The objective has always been the same: to help those who want to start collecting to do so with criteria and without fear, supporting them in their first acquisitions.

Do you think art will increasingly become part of investment portfolios? What expectations are there for ARCO this year?

Interest exists and will probably continue to grow, but always with the understanding that art requires knowledge and a long-term perspective. ARCO is also a good place to buy because there is a selection process for galleries and visitors can access a great deal of information before making a decision.

Allfunds Reorganizes Its Business to Focus on Its Platform and Distribution Capabilities

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

Middle East conflict investors — Photo courtesy

Within the framework of its 2025 strategic review, Allfunds has decided to focus on its core platform and distribution business, exiting Allfunds Tech (WebFG) and the Luxembourg ManCo business, as well as restructuring MainStreet Partners. This decision coincides with two milestones: the closing of a record year, its assets under administration grew by 17.1%, and the recommended acquisition of Allfunds by Deutsche Börse Group.

According to the firm, this simplification will allow it to concentrate resources on synergistic, profitable, and scalable areas, strengthening the group’s financial profile over the long term. “2025 was a year of strong results and a clear strategic refocusing. €1.76 trillion in AuA, 18% growth in net flows, a 74% increase in alternatives, and an improvement in the EBITDA margin to above 65%, all achieved while making clear strategic decisions to concentrate Allfunds on its core strengths. The result is a more compact and agile Allfunds, with an unwavering commitment to our clients and partners, and we are already delivering results in our focus areas. The recommended acquisition by Deutsche Börse Group announced in January reflects the value we have built, as well as the strength and quality of our franchise. We are confident the combination will bring together complementary capabilities and market reach,” said Annabel Spring, CEO of Allfunds, following the presentation of the company’s preliminary results for the 2025 financial year.

Strategic review

Allfunds launched its strategic review in 2025. The company refers to it as “Strategic Review 2025,” whose objective was to redefine priorities and focus on more synergistic, profitable, and scalable businesses, primarily its core platform and distribution capabilities.

“The guiding principle of our review is to drive growth and create solid value for clients and shareholders by focusing on businesses that are truly synergistic, profitable, and scalable, and by partnering with leading specialists when this helps us deliver better solutions and service. The result is that we are realigning around what we do best: our core platform and our distribution capabilities,” the firm explains.

As a result of this review, Allfunds has decided to exit the Allfunds Tech (WebFG) and Luxembourg ManCo businesses and to restructure MainStreet Partners. According to the company, by divesting or restructuring these businesses, “we simplify the Group, focus on what truly differentiates Allfunds, and improve both our financial profile and our long-term value creation potential.”

In addition, the firm notes that in the case of WebFG and ManCo, the conditions are met for their classification as “non-current assets held for sale” under IFRS 5, and they have been valued at the lower of their carrying amount and fair value less costs to sell.

By contrast, in line with the objectives of its strategic review, Allfunds has signed key partnership agreements with Waystone and MSCI, which will enhance, respectively, Management Company services for Allfunds’ global clients and access to MSCI’s data and enhanced analytics capabilities delivered through the platform.

Business development in 2025

During the past year, Allfunds also maintained its focus on client onboarding during the fourth quarter, adding 16 distributors and 15 asset managers. In total, in 2025 the Group added 90 asset managers and 64 distributors, driven by clients replacing in-house solutions and adopting open architecture.

In terms of growth, the development of its alternatives business was particularly significant. By December 2025, total AuA in alternatives had grown by 74% year-on-year to €33.8 billion, while distribution AuA reached €18.4 billion, an exceptional 83% year-on-year increase.

According to the firm, demand from asset managers continues to accelerate and Allfunds now offers access to 213 alternatives managers. “We already work with the most prominent names in the alternatives segment: KKR, Blackstone, Apollo, Ares, Carlyle, BlackRock, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Franklin Templeton, and many others. Interest in private market funds is growing among distributors, with existing clients increasing their allocations. Importantly, we are seeing new distributors join Allfunds specifically to access alternatives and then expand across our entire platform, strengthening long-term client relationships and validating our model. This places our business in an excellent strategic position,” the firm notes.

Finally, Allfunds announced that it has successfully completed the pilot phase of its ETF platform, validating its core capabilities and confirming its readiness for the next stage. “In 2026 we expect the platform to enter a fully operational model, while development continues and its functionalities are further expanded,” the company said.

The Other Side of the Middle East Conflict for Investors

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

In the face of the conflict in the Middle East, investment firms are urging investors not to rush and to wait for events to unfold. Their first message is to pay close attention to the duration and scope of the conflict, as these will determine the magnitude and persistence of price movements in commodities, equities, and other risk assets.

For now, they explain that we have seen a rise in oil and gas prices, greater interest in safe-haven assets, and an increase in uncertainty. “Markets are adjusting to higher geopolitical risk, but they are not yet positioning for a prolonged regional war. Whether this changes will depend less on the attack itself, which has already reshaped the political landscape in Tehran, and more on what happens next: how the succession unfolds, how far Iran chooses to respond, and whether energy flows from the Gulf remain secure in the coming days,” says Talha Khan, political economist at Capital Group.

Duration and scale of the conflict

To reassure investors, Khan notes that energy markets tend to recover quickly from geopolitical shocks. In fact, since 1967, none of the major military conflicts involving Israel has had a lasting impact on oil prices, with the exception of the 1973 Arab–Israeli war.

“Today’s global oil system is more flexible than during previous Gulf crises. Non-OPEC supply, particularly U.S. shale, can respond more quickly to price incentives. Strategic reserves exist as a buffer. The energy intensity of GDP is lower than in previous oil shocks. These factors do not eliminate vulnerability to a disruption in the Gulf, but they reduce the likelihood that a brief confrontation will turn into a structural energy crisis,” Khan argues.

Similarly, Banca March acknowledges that it is maintaining its current strategy, as it also believes the conflict will be short-lived. “At the regional level, the markets most affected are European and Asian ones, which are more energy dependent. However, the conflict has erupted at the end of winter in Europe and during a period of milder temperatures in Asia, implying more contained seasonal demand in the coming weeks,” they note.

Messages for investors

Putting themselves in investors’ shoes, Enguerrand Artaz, strategist at La Financière de l’Échiquier (LFDE), acknowledges that escalation risks must be closely monitored, but stresses the importance of avoiding negative overreactions to these events.

“It is worth remembering that, in the vast majority of cases, European and U.S. equity markets post positive performance between one and three months after the start of an armed conflict. Therefore, it is necessary to maintain rationality and discipline in this environment,” he says.

A second reflection for investors comes from Tobias Schafföner, Head of Multi Asset at Flossbach von Storch, who believes the current context reinforces the philosophy of diversifying across asset classes, as well as within each asset class.

“In our view, investors would do well to prepare, at least implicitly, for scenarios that are often overshadowed by major market themes. Recently, the market has focused primarily on artificial intelligence (AI), ignoring potential risks beyond this theme,” Schafföner argues.

In his opinion, when overlooked risks materialize, safe-haven assets such as gold and, no less importantly, the U.S. dollar come to the forefront.

“Precious metals have always been an integral part of our multi-asset portfolios. For this diversification reason, we do not fully hedge our dollar exposure. The liquidity position also follows the diversification principle and is therefore large enough to take advantage of investment opportunities as they arise,” he says.

Finally, Sonal Desai, CIO of Fixed Income at Franklin Templeton, believes investors should not lose sight of the next steps by central banks. In the short term, higher oil prices should raise inflation expectations and lead to a less accommodative stance by the Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB), and other major central banks.

“The U.S. dollar is likely to strengthen temporarily, reflecting both a downward revision in expectations for Fed rate cuts and the fact that the U.S. economy is far less vulnerable to an oil shock than the rest of the world. In addition, U.S. Treasuries could receive safe-haven inflows, although given the inflation risk, I do not expect a sustained rally in the long end of the curve. Emerging markets will be put to the test, especially oil-importing countries, which are more vulnerable,” Desai says.

Let’s talk about opportunities

In this context, Artaz stresses that the sharp declines seen in certain stocks and market segments may offer opportunities to strengthen positions in high-quality companies at attractive prices or to initiate positions in firms whose valuations previously seemed too high.

“We are also maintaining the protection strategies initiated in recent months in certain funds, particularly in our diversified funds,” he adds.

For Nitesh Shah, Head of Commodities and Macroeconomic Research at WisdomTree, companies that are intensive in physical assets and have low obsolescence risk, such as utilities, infrastructure operators, energy producers, and transport companies, could show greater resilience.

“These companies are less exposed to rapid technological disruption and often provide essential inputs for energy systems and defense supply chains. On the first trading day after the escalation, oil outperformed gold. However, the fact that Brent has not sustainably exceeded $80 per barrel suggests that high inventories are acting as a temporary buffer. If the conflict persists or expands, risk premiums would likely rise, with gold reflecting geopolitical stress more markedly in the coming weeks,” Shah notes.

Rethinking long-term investing

Against this backdrop, the BlackRock Investment Institute (BII) goes a step further, arguing that a new approach to portfolio construction is needed.

“Traditional strategic asset allocation is no longer sufficient in an environment dominated by structural megaforces. It is essential to regularly reassess the main investment theses and focus on the underlying economic drivers,” they argue.

In their view, the new conflict in the Middle East, the correction in the technology sector, and Nvidia’s results illustrate how structural megaforces are reshaping markets in real time.

“Although they are widely recognized, the scale and direction of their long-term impact remain uncertain. Since there is no single long-term scenario, it makes sense to review investment theses more frequently and prioritize economic fundamentals over traditional asset labels. On a strategic horizon of at least five years, we overweight high-yield corporate debt and infrastructure investment,” they conclude.

Why the Strait of Hormuz Is a Key Piece in Global Markets

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

The conflict in the Middle East is evolving rapidly. According to experts from international asset managers, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would lead to a scenario with higher upside inflation risks and a likely negative impact on global growth. For now, what we are seeing is that markets, in general, have been adjusting to elevated uncertainty rather than suffering dislocations.

Specifically, oil and natural gas prices surged on Monday. Brent futures rose about 9% to trade around $79 per barrel, while WTI, the U.S. benchmark, advanced nearly 8% to $73 per barrel on Monday morning. In addition, in Europe, natural gas prices climbed 40%, given the region’s high dependence on LNG shipments from the Middle East.

“U.S. equities initially fell by around 1%, but later recovered and closed almost flat, while European markets dropped more than 2% due to their greater energy dependence on the Middle East. U.S. Treasury bonds have experienced significant selling due to inflation concerns associated with the surge in oil prices,” summarize analysts at Maximai Investment Partners.

In the view of Raphael Thuïn, Head of Capital Markets Strategies at Tikehau Capital, market behavior suggests that U.S. intervention on Iranian soil had been partially anticipated by investors. “While the possibility of a more prolonged conflict cannot be ruled out and uncertainty remains significant, several factors are currently moderating the risk of a more sustained escalation,” he notes.

The Importance of Hormuz

To understand this scenario, it is necessary to step back and consider what the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would mean. Approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day and nearly one-fifth of the world’s LNG supply pass through Hormuz. Therefore, if the strait remains blocked for a significant period of time, the consequences for prices will be non-linear.

“A partial slowdown lasting one or two weeks can be absorbed through inventory drawdowns and delayed shipments. A total or near-total closure lasting a month or more would require demand destruction at levels that could push crude oil into triple-digit prices and European natural gas prices toward or above the crisis levels seen in 2022. The relationship between the duration of the disruption and prices is not proportional—it accelerates. Each additional week of closure worsens the problem, as storage reserves are depleted, refinery production cuts occur, and it takes time to mobilize replacement cargoes from outside the region,” explains Hakan Kaya, Senior Portfolio Manager at Neuberger Berman.

For Jack Janasiewicz, Portfolio Manager at Natixis IM Solutions, the situation remains uncertain and the key factor will be the duration and scope of the disruption in the oil supply chain. “The longer this situation persists, the greater the probability of a prolonged rise in oil prices. However, we see few indications that this will happen. The government has little interest in prolonging the conflict,” he acknowledges.

Natural gas deserves special mention, as its prices have surged despite minimal damage to energy infrastructure and despite the natural gas market entering the spring season. According to Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, news about the shutdown of Qatar’s main liquefaction and export plant, along with preventive production cuts in the Middle East, fueled fears about energy supply security, mainly in Europe and Asia.

“Qatar is among the three largest suppliers of seaborne natural gas, and a prolonged disruption would be truly concerning. We do not know what portion of the facility remains offline, but the drone attack apparently did not cause significant damage. This, among other factors, helps explain the surprisingly contained reaction of oil prices to the events in the Middle East,” he explains.

Beyond Oil

In his view, the natural gas market appears more vulnerable to attacks in the Middle East, given that supply comes from a smaller number of facilities. “Historically, natural gas has also been a more nervous, emotional, and volatile energy market than oil. Memories of the energy crisis remain fresh. However, the broader picture of a wave of LNG (liquefied natural gas) putting downward pressure on prices remains intact, even though it is currently overshadowed by geopolitics. It is unlikely that the surge in natural gas will translate into higher electricity prices in Europe,” adds Rücker.

Beyond oil and gas, roughly 15% of global maritime trade and 30% of container traffic that passes through the Red Sea toward the Suez Canal are also at risk. In this regard, Mohammed Elmi, Senior Portfolio Manager for Emerging Market Debt at Federated Hermes, believes that a significant disruption, such as the one seen during last year’s Houthi attacks, could weigh on global growth and reinforce stagflationary pressures.

“Beyond oil, the Gulf’s energy advantage supports large-scale nitrogen fertilizer production, accounting for about 10% of global supply and serving key markets such as India and Africa. Disruptions could push soft commodity prices higher,” he adds.

Economies That Would “Suffer”

As Elmi notes, historically instability has often benefited GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain) economies due to rising oil prices.

“The key will be how markets balance higher crude prices with rising regional risk premiums. If the conflict drags on, Middle East risk premiums could adjust significantly. Spillover to emerging markets outside the Middle East appears limited, although second-round effects could put pressure on weaker regional economies such as Egypt, Pakistan, and potentially Turkey,” Elmi says.

Looking at the United States, according to Fed analysis, a sustained $10 per barrel increase in oil prices is estimated to add approximately between 0.2% and 0.4% to overall U.S. CPI inflation and slightly reduce GDP growth.