Keith Ney, Fund Manager at Carmignac, Will Analyze The Challenges of The Fixed Income Markets at The Funds Selector Summit in Miami

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Keith Ney, fund manager de Carmignac Gestion, analizará las dificultades de los mercados de renta fija en el Fund Selector Summit de Miami
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Keith Ney, Fixed Income Fund Manager at Carmignac. Keith Ney, Fund Manager at Carmignac, Will Analyze The Challenges of The Fixed Income Markets at The Funds Selector Summit in Miami

After a secular bull market lasting 30 years, fixed income is now facing a challenging phase. Following a long period of monetary policies that have kept interest rates low in the United States, the Federal Reserve appears to have embarked on a normalization process. By contrast, European and Japanese rates seem to have reached historic lows due to the support of interventions by central banks. Additionally a combination of increased quantitative easing and lower trading liquidity has exacerbated the volatility of this asset class.

Keith Ney, Fixed Income Fund Manager at Carmignac, will present Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond’s investment allocation under the title “Alpha generation in an uncertain fixed income environment” at the Second Edition of the Funds Selector Summit to be held on 28th and 29th of April, where he will explain how they have been able to achieve performance by investing across sovereign, credit, and currency markets,

The conference, aimed at leading funds selectors and investors from the US-Offshore business, will be held at the Ritz-Carlton Key Biscayne. The event-a joint venture between Open Door Media, owner of InvestmentEurope, and Fund Society- will provide an opportunity to hear the view of several managers on the current state of the industry.

Keith Ney, who joined Carmignac Gestion in 2005, has been Fund Manager for Carmignac Securite since 2013. Prior to that, he worked as an analyst for Lawndale Capital Management from 1999 to 2005. Keith holds a Bachelor of Science in Business Administration from the University of California at Berkeley, and is a CFA Charter holder since 2002.

You can find all the information about the Fund Selector Miami Summit 2016, aimed at leading fund selectors and investors from the US-Offshore business, through this link.

Institutional Markets in Asia & Europe, Australia and USA Offshore: Next Steps in Mirae’s Global Expansion

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mirae
Rahul Chadha, CIO at Mirae Asset Global Investments.. mirae

Jung Ho Rhee, CEO at Mirae Asset Global Investments, explains in this interview with Funds Society all the details about its success in Asia and its international growth in markets as Europe, Asia, Latin America, Australia and USA, where the firm looks to expand also in the offshore market.

Mirae Asset Global Investments was established in 1997 at the height of the Asian economic and currency crisis…How has this timing marked the nature of the firm?

It may be counter intuitive, the financial crisis created tremendous opportunities for Mirae Asset. Mirae Asset Global Investments was established in 1997 during which regulation in Korea was relaxed following the Asian financial crisis. Our firm started off as the first asset management company in Korea when mutual funds were largely unheard of by the Korean population. With years of vigorous investor education, our firm created a market for our products. In other words, Mirae Asset transformed the asset management industry in Korea. Now, we are the largest asset management company in Korea by AUM. Our firm’s ambition is not only to establish a presence in Korea, but also provide global investors best-in-class financial products. To that, our firm set up overseas office in Hong Kong in 2003 which managed regional and global funds to be sold to Korean and global investors. Since then, we have set up offices in India and Brazil to bolster our onshore fund offerings. In 2007, we established our UK office to boost our SICAV fund distribution capability throughout Europe. As of end October 2015, Mirae Asset Global Investments Group’s AUM amounted to USD 77.6 billion. All I can say is that our firm is resilient and has grown exponentially amid adverse macro condition.

Since then, what are the main challenges in managing Asian assets? How has your investment philosophy evolved?

The main challenge in managing Asian assets is that Asia is a unique and diverse region, whose constituent countries and sectors all possess different attributes, are all at different levels of development and maturity, and are driven by different cultural trends and consumer habits. In order to be successful, asset managers need to possess deep understanding of and insights into the economies and culture of the region. Mirae Asset is a company with an Asian heritage. We have a strong team of investment professionals focusing on the Asian markets and seven offices across Asia-Pacific. Our investment philosophy is focused on identifying long-term winners that possess sustainable competitiveness, and our investment process is driven by our on-the-ground research process. This allows us to construct compact, high conviction portfolios that shun “benchmark approaches” and achieve real alpha for our investors. 

Regarding your international expansion, it started in 2003. Beyond Asia, you have presence in UK, Colombia, Brazil, USA and Canada but, where else are you selling your funds?

We are selling our Luxembourg-domiciled SICAV funds into Asia, Europe and Latin America. Our India office offers local domiciled funds for Indian investors. In the US, we are selling our local domiciled funds to US investors, but we are thinking about expanding our SICAV offerings in the US through wholesale channels to non-US citizens.

What are going to be your next steps in your international expansion?

Our expansion plan is on multi-pronged approach. We will continue to grow assets through expanding geographically, strengthening our relationships with clients and investment consultants, as well as widening our product offering. Recently, we have hired Marko Tutavac as head of consultant relationships based in Hong Kong, and Chris Wildman as head of Australia sales in Sydney. As our firm had gained ground in wholesale distribution in Europe and Asia and now wanted to further grow its institutional business, which was reflected in the new hires.

Tutavac is tasked with cultivating the firm’s relationship with global investment consultants and ratings agencies in Asia. He was hired from Fidelity Worldwide Investment, where he was associate director for institutional business for Asia ex-Japan.
Wildman is responsible for driving the distribution of Mirae Asset’s fund particularly in the institutional marketplace. He was hired from AMP Capital, where most recently he was an institutional business executive. One of our recent product development initiatives is collaborating with Daiwa Asset Management to co-manage the Mirae Asset Next Asia Pacific Equity fund. The fund is domiciled in Luxembourg and Korea and we are now planning to domicile in Japan to cater for global investors’ appetite on Asia Pacific including Japan equities. We received a substantial amount of requests and interest regarding the launch of this fund from European investors. We will continue to explore expansion opportunities in different directions.

What products do you use for your international growth?

Our Ucits fund range has seen AUM triple in past two years to $2 billion, largely driven by flows from institutions and wholesale clients in Europe. We have seen significant interest in our SICAV funds globally. In particular, Mirae Asset Asia Great Consumer Equity Fund and Mirae Asset Asia Sector Leader Equity Fund have consistently outperformed the benchmark and gained traction among our clients. As I mentioned earlier, we collaborate with Daiwa Asset Management to co-manage the Mirae Asset Next Asia Pacific Equity fund. The fund is domiciled in Luxembourg and Korea and we are now planning to domicile in Japan to cater for global investors’ appetite on Asia Pacific including Japan equities.

Your AUM reach over $70 bn…What are your objectives for the coming years?

Our objective in the coming year is to continue our distribution efforts in SICAV funds across Europe, Asia and Latin America. As I mentioned earlier, we have recently hired our head of Australia sales, we will step up our distribution efforts in Australia.

Why did you choose a “team-based approach” model instead of betting on star fund managers or great individual talents?

We believe that a team-based approach, where a team of talented investment professionals work collaboratively, each focusing on and being accountable for their area of expertise is the best way to achieve long-term outperformance. This is borne out by our own experience and by independent academic research. Reliance on star investment managers may work for some asset management companies but we believe that it limits the scope, breadth and depth of investment ideas and is susceptible to personal bias. Furthermore, a structure dominated by a few key persons increases risks, whereas we believe that a team approach minimizes risks, including key man risks. 

Risk analysis and factors like valuations, liquidity or governance are key in your investment philosophy, which one of these three factors is the biggest threat in Asia nowadays?

All of these issues are important for investors to consider. However, investors should be aware that Asia has seen rapid growth in the total investible universe of companies while continued efforts at improving market access, such as the recent Shanghai Hong Kong Stock Connect Scheme, have contributed to marked upgrades in liquidity. In addition, several Asian governments and regulators are making continued efforts to implement improvements to corporate governance. All of these are positive measures, which will contribute to Asia’s ongoing evolution as an accessible, efficient and transparent market for investors looking for stable and diversified investment opportunities. The advantage that Mirae Asset Global Investments offers is that we are a company with a unique heritage and presence in Asia – this means that we have a deep understanding of the Asian markets.  Our on-the-ground research presence by our research analysts in Asia means that we are able to make first hand checks on issues related to liquidity and corporate governance before we make investments, and keep performing ongoing checks on all stocks in our portfolios. In particular, as signatories of United Nations Principles for Responsible Investment, Mirae Asset Global Investments has a firm responsibility to ensure that issues of corporate governance are fully taken into consideration in our investment decisions.

China is in historical key moment, in the midst of a transition to a consumer economy. How do you value the difficulty and implications of this process to China? And for the rest of Asia? Do you think it is necessary to be focused when investing in China?

China is in the midst of an unprecedented effort to correct structural imbalances in its economy, and the success of this great transition will depend on how effectively the central government implements reforms. The China market saw some intense periods of volatility in 2015 as investor sentiment swung from optimism to pessimism, and while we expect there to be some volatility in 2016, what is certain is that the country is likely to avoid a hard landing. There could be some near-term pain as the reforms take time to play out and growth will likely remain low but we do not believe the current situation is as severe as in the global financial crisis of 2008 or the Asian financial crisis of 1997.

What is important to consider is that in low growth macroeconomic environments such as this, the importance of bottom-up growth picking comes to the fore. There are many sectors in China that have strong prospects for growth, and there are many high quality businesses with sustainable competitive advantages, strong balance sheets and capable management teams that are reasonably valued. Therefore, for skilled asset managers such as Mirae Asset Global Investments who rely on fundamental analysis and bottom-up stock picking to achieve alpha, this market presents many opportunities. The case is the same for the wider Asian region. Some countries are seeing lower rates of growth as ageing demographics and highly leveraged households exert negative pressure. However, emerging markets experts such as Mirae Asset Global Investments do not consider all emerging markets countries as one homogenous pack – there are many countries in the Asian region where we see rich opportunity and which may actually benefit from the current situation. This includes India, which will strongly benefit from the collapse of commodity prices. 

What can we expect from Emerging Markets, after the last developments in China?

Top experts from Mirae Asset think it is important not to be blinded by macroeconomic pictures. Asia still provides ample investment opportunities. There has been a lot of volatility and things have happened so fast. After recent market correction, valuations of Asian equities become more attractive. This environment offers good opportunities to exploit. A bottom-up approach is key and we like selected stocks in consumer, technology and healthcare sectors.

Is it the moment to invest again in these “less favoured” markets, against other developed markets?

As mentioned above, China needs to correct some distortions in its economy and there will be a lot of deleveraging that needs to be performed. The “Old China” sectors which traditionally fueled China’s growth in the past will see some near-term pain. Growth in the economy will undoubtedly slow. However, for an US$11 trillion economy, growth at 3 to 4% overall is still reasonable and higher than some developed markets. Furthermore, there are many sectors in what we call the “New China” economy that offers excellent growth opportunity for investors. This includes investment themes such as the continued growth in IT services, healthcare services and underpenetrated financial sectors such as insurance. This is also true for other emerging markets. Commodity producers will no doubt suffer a downturn at least in the short run, but several emerging market countries will benefit from cheaper energy ad commodity prices, while countries such as Philippines still benefit from strong demographics and economic fundamentals. We still believe that Asia will drive the world’s economic growth in decades to come. Hence, it is important for investors to consider making an allocation to Asia in their portfolios.

What about alternative investments? Are you trying to boost this business globally? What could this provide to a Real Estate or Private Equity investor in Europe or America?

Mirae Asset Global Investments is considered to be a pioneer in regards to alternative investments in Asia. We were the first company to launch private equity funds in Korea, and introduced the first real estate fund in Korea as well. Today, we have an extensive portfolio of private equity and real estate holdings and manage various forms of alternative products spanning the full spectrum of asset classes. We also offer a diverse range of Asian hedge fund products that invest in more plain vanilla financial instruments such as equities, fixed income and derivatives. These aim to deliver absolute return type returns. We want to be a global business partner to all of our current and prospective clients – we recognize that our investors have a diverse range of unique investment needs, and we always aim to cater to those needs by driving innovation and diversity in our product line-up.

Risk Budget: Spend It Wisely

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Presupuesto de riesgo: gasta con sabiduría
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Scott Hudson. Risk Budget: Spend It Wisely

For those who budget, time is an asset. Wise spending decisions often take longer to bear fruit. Committing to a budget long-term could potentially lower one’s debt and improve their cash flow. Blow the budget with short-sighted spending decisions, however, and what might have been a good financial outcome turns undeniably less certain.

Similarly, an active manager’s risk budget—how and where they decide to “spend” or allocate risk —directly impacts their potential to outperform. In fact those spending decisions are a critical component of active risk management. In budgeting risk, an active manager essentially identifies, quantifies and sets their active risk allocations as efficiently as possible. The end goal is to maximize the potential reward for the amount of risk taken.

Just as in personal budgeting, there are tradeoffs to risk budgeting — deciding to spend in one place sacrifices the ability to spend in another. So those spending decisions must be meaningful — and purposeful.  For an active manager, that’s a matter of understanding the idiosyncratic risks of individual securities, seeing the potential upside and recognizing the potential downside. The idea is not to take unintended risks. 

What are some of the risk budgeting decisions an active manager might make? In more difficult markets, where active managers can play to their strengths, they might choose not to own the largest stocks, which, historically haven’t grown as fast through a market cycle. Or, an active manager might try to position away from some of the most expensive parts of the market, which have often become overextended in the days leading up to market peaks. They might also position away from the most volatile parts of the market, which typically haven’t performed as well through a full market cycle. In fact part of an active manager’s potential to outperform depends on their ability to mitigate the impact of volatility by reducing the downside risk at the security level. That’s why it’s so important to integrate risk management into the investment process, all the way down to the analyst level and in the evaluation of individual companies.

Much like personal budgeting, risk budgeting needs time to come to fruition. It’s not something that can be turned off or on but rather, a process that relies on discipline and a long-term, forward looking view. Active managers budget risk based on what they think could happen, not just on what has happened. But that’s really where spending wisely could have its greatest opportunity –sacrificing a little now to potentially get closer to what you might need further out.

James Swanson is MFS Chief Investment Strategist.

Tarek Saber, from NN Investment Partners, brings the current state of convertible bonds to the Fund Selector Summit in Miami

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Tarek Saber, de NN Investment Partners, trae al Fund Selector Summit 2016 la actualidad de los bonos convertibles
Photo: Tarek Saber, Head and Lead Portfolio manager of the Convertible Bonds Team at NN Investment Partners. Tarek Saber, from NN Investment Partners, brings the current state of convertible bonds to the Fund Selector Summit in Miami

Convertible bonds are a well established asset class which has outperformed through the cycle over the last 40 years. During this time, convertibles have displayed lower volatility than equities and fewer defaults than high yield debt. The main attraction of this investment class is its potential ability to generate returns from both credit markets and rising equity markets.

Tarek Saber, Head and Lead Portfolio manager of the Convertible Bonds Team at NN Investment Partners, will present the strengths of the Dutch firm’s strategy in this asset class, under the title, ‘Convertible bonds: the fixed-income alternative to equities’, at the Second edition of the Funds Selector Summit to be held in Miami on the 28th and 29th of April.

The conference, aimed at leading funds selectors and investors from the US-Offshore business, will be held at the Ritz-Carlton Key Biscayne. The event-a joint venture between Open Door Media, owner of InvestmentEurope, and Fund Society- will provide an opportunity to hear the view of several managers on the current state of the industry.

The NN Investment Partners’ convertible investment strategy team, headed by Saber since 2014, seeks to capture the essence of the opportunities offered by the market for convertible bonds globally, focusing on balanced convertibles, backed by a process of in-depth research and concentrated on a select number of convertibles.

Prior to joining NN IP, Tarek Saber was CEO / CIO for Avoca Convertible Bond Partners LLP and Head of Convertible Bond Strategies in the management company’s London office.

You can find all the information about the Fund Selector Miami Summit 2016, aimed at leading fund selectors and investors from the US-Offshore business, through this link.

 

Merging Markets

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Las condiciones monetarias de China se han relajado, no endurecido
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Carlos ZGZ. Merging Markets

Despite a slowdown in trade globalisation, it looks like equity markets are more globalised than ever. When one market falls, the contagion quickly spreads to bring the others down as well. This is a change from the past. In the old way of thinking about the world, the US sneezed and the world caught a cold. The S&P 500 was always viewed as the leading indicator for global equity markets. But the perception since last summer is that it is the Chinese equity market that is doing the sneezing.

Figuring out whether a drop in one equity market causes a drop in another is a tricky task. Just because the fall of one equity market is followed by a fall in another, does not necessarily mean that the first caused the fall in the second. To assume so would make you guilty of the logical fallacy of post hoc ergo propter hoc, or “after therefore because of”. There could always be a third factor that is driving both equity markets down, but it so happens that the effect has fed through to one market earlier than the other. But given we can never test everything, there will always be the possibility of a third factor that we did not include.

That is why proper science (as opposed to the dismal science of economics) is based on the idea that you can never prove anything, only disprove something. And here at least economics, or more precisely, econometrics, can help us out. We can figure out if one equity market is good at predicting changes in another equity market. This is known as predictive causality (using a test named after the late Nobel-prize winning economist Clive Granger). If changes in one market are useless at predicting the change in another market, we have at least disproven the causality. If it is useful, then we have failed to disprove the causality (even if we cannot ever prove it).

Things get a bit more confusing when we realise that the causality can actually run in both directions. So a drop in the Chinese equity market might be predictively causing a drop in the US equity market, yet at the same time there is a feedback loop whereby US equities are predicting subsequent moves in the Chinese equity market. As so often in economics, it is hard to figure out whether the chicken or the egg came first.

Sure enough, over the last decade or so the S&P 500 and the Shanghai Composite have both predictively caused moves in each other (see chart), sometimes at the same time. Some correlation is always likely, so readings above 80% probability or so start to become statistically significant (shaded darker). Between 2003 and 2005 the two moved pretty much independently, and then moves in the S&P 500 started to affect the Shanghai composite. The run-up in US equities was good at predicting a subsequent run-up in Chinese equities (albeit with a much larger proportional increase in China).

But then coming into late 2007 and 2008 it was China’s turn to take the driver’s seat, becoming a good predictor of the US. Once the financial crisis hit the causality went both ways, reflecting the global nature of the crisis.

But for the next few years, up until the end of 2011, the S&P 500 was clearly dominant. It was an effective predictor of Chinese equities (and probably most other markets as well). But this is a good example of where a third factor likely came into play. This was the period when the Fed started its quantitative easing, pushing investors out of government bonds and triggering a search for yield. So investors moved into progressively riskier assets: first US equities and then emerging market equities.

Equity markets started to reassert their independence up until the taper tantrum. Once Fed chair Ben Bernanke announced that QE would not continue forever, the effects of QE on investment appetite went into reverse. Investors started to retreat from emerging market equities first, so the causality flipped the other way. Chinese equities became a better predictor of US equities.

Since last summer the gyrations of the Chinese equity market became a clear predictor of what would happen in the US. This does not necessarily mean it was the only factor, or even the major factor, just simply that it led the moves in the US. Ask most investors and they will tell you that China is the dominant factor.

There may be some good reasons for this. Firstly, the Chinese economy has been growing rapidly (even if it has slowed down) so it is an ever larger share of the world economy. Secondly, equity markets are very often dominated by global firms who earn revenues from many other markets. So US firms with large exports to China should be reacting to downturns in China (that is, assuming Chinese equity markets are representing the real economy, which is another question entirely). Lastly, the weakness in the equity market brought about a depreciation in the CNY against the USD, even as the People’s Bank of China had to expend a lot of reserves to prevent too rapid a depreciation. Not only is currency depreciation likely to be bad for US exports to China, but the selling of reserves constitutes a substantial capital outflow, which is bad for financial markets.

But one consequence of the closer links between the Chinese equity markets and the US equity markets is that the US equity market is, almost by definition, telling us less about the US economy. The equity markets may merging, but that does not mean the economies are.

Joshua McCallum and Gianluca Moretti are part of the Fixed Income team at UBS Asset Management.

Pamplona Capital Appoints Pedro Rapallo as Operating Partner Focused on Iberia

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Pamplona Capital nombra a Pedro Rapallo Operating Partner responsable de Iberia
Photo: Aranjuez1404, Flickr, Creative Commons. Pamplona Capital Appoints Pedro Rapallo as Operating Partner Focused on Iberia

Pamplona Capital Management is pleased to announce the appointment of Pedro Rapallo as an Operating Partner in order to supplement its deal team and support its focus on the Iberian Peninsula. In this new position, Pedro, along with the Pamplona Capital team, will drive new investment opportunities in Spain and Portugal.

“Pedro brings a wealth of local knowledge and expertise in Spain and Portugal and a large experience in the global financial services industry. Pedro’s insight will be invaluable for Pamplona Capital as we increase our focus on investment opportunities in Iberia,” said John Halsted, Managing Partner at Pamplona Capital.

Pedro Rapallo brings 20 years of business and consulting experience to Pamplona Capital. Most recently, Pedro was a Partner and Managing Director at The Boston Consulting Group, with a focus on financial services in Iberia and wholesale transactional banking globally. Prior to joining The Boston Consulting Group, Rapallo worked for Oliver Wyman as a Partner in their financial services team focusing on corporate strategy, wholesale banking and risk and capital management, and was a visiting scholar at the Department of Economics at the University of California San Diego.

A native of Madrid, Spain, Rapallo holds bachelor degrees in Law and Business Administration from the Universidad Pontificia de Comillas, and a Masters and C.Phil. in Economics from the University of California, San Diego.

Pamplona Capital Management is a London and New York based specialist investment manager established in 2005 that provides an alternative investment platform across private equity, fund of hedge funds and single manager hedge fund investments. 

Pamplona Capital Management, LLP manages over USD 10 billion in assets across a number of funds for a variety of clients including public pension funds, international wealth managers, multinational corporations, family offices and funds of hedge funds. Pamplona is currently managing its fourth private equity fund, Pamplona Capital Partners IV LP, which raised $4 billion in 2014. Pamplona invests long-term capital across the capital structure of its portfolio companies in both public and private market situations.

Bill Gross: “Don’t Go Near High Risk Markets, Stay Safe and Plain Vanilla”

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Bill Gross: “No se acerque a los mercados de alto riesgo”
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Janus Capital. Bill Gross: “Don’t Go Near High Risk Markets, Stay Safe and Plain Vanilla”

The BoJ’s surprise move to take interest rates into negative territory this month helps Bill Gross continue its case against ultra-low interest rates policies. “How’s it workin’ for ya?” He writes in reference to central bankers.

The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, “they all seem to believe that there is an interest rate SO LOW that resultant financial market wealth will ultimately spill over into the real economy. I have long argued against that logic and won’t reiterate the negative aspects of low yields and financial repression in this Outlook. What I will commonsensically ask is ‘How successful have they been so far?’… The fact is that global markets and individual economies are increasingly ‘addled’ and distorted,” says the former Bond King at PIMCO and now part of Janus Capital Group.

In its February’s outlook, Gross lists the main distortions of recent monetary policy:

  1. Venezuela – bankruptcy just around the corner due to low oil prices and policy mismanagement. Current oil prices are (in significant part) a function of low interest rate central bank policies over the past 7 years.
  2. Puerto Rico – default underway due to overspending, the overpromising of retirement benefits, and the inability to earn adequate investment returns due to ultra-low global interest rates.
  3. Brazil – in deep recession due to commodity prices, government scandal and in this case, exorbitantly high real interest rates to combat the effect of low global interest rates, and currency depreciation of the REAL. No country over time can issue debt at 6-7% real interest rates with negative growth. It is a death sentence. In the interim, the monetary authorities deceptively issue, then roll over more than a $100 billion of “currency swaps” instead of selling dollar reserves in an effort to hoodwink the world that there are $300 billion of reserves to back up their sinking credit. This maneuver effectively costs the government 2% of GDP per year, leading to the current 9% fiscal deficit.
  4. Japan – 260% government debt/GDP and climbing sort of says it all, but there’s a twist. Since the fiscal (Abe) and the monetary (Kuroda) authorities are basically one and the same, in some future year the debt will likely be “forgiven” via conversion to 0% 50-year bonds that effectively never come due. Japan will not technically default but neither will private investors be incented to make a bet on the world’s largest aging demographic petri dish. I’m tempted to say that “Where Japan goes – so go we all”, but I won’t – it’s too depressing.
  5. Euroland – “Whatever it takes”, “no limit”, what new catchphrases can Draghi come up with next time? It’s not that there’s a sufficient recession ahead, it’s just that the German yield curve is in negative territory all the way out to 7 years, and the shaky peripherals are not far behind. Who will invest in these markets once the ECB hits an effective negative limit that might be marked by the withdrawal of 0% yielding cash from the banking system?
  6. China – Ah, the dragon’s mysteries are slowly surfacing. Total debt/GDP as high as 300%; under the table capital controls; the loss of $1 trillion in reserves to support an overvalued currency; a distorted economic model relying on empty airports, Potemkin village housing, and investment to GDP of 50%, which somehow never seems to transition to a consumer led future. Increasingly, increasingly addled.
  7. U.S. – Well now, the U.S. is impervious to all this, is it not? An 85% internally generated growth model that relies on consumption which in turn, relies on job growth and higher wages, all of which seems to keep on keepin’ on. Somehow, though, even the Fed seems to have doubts, as in last week’s summary statement, where for the first time in 15 years they were unable to assess the “balance of risks”. “We need some time here to understand what is going on”, says Kaplan from the Dallas Fed. Shades of 2007. The household sector has delevered, but the corporate sector never did, and with Investment Grade and High Yield yields 200-1000 basis points higher now, what does that say about future rollover, corporate profits and solvency in many commodity-sensitive areas?

“Our finance-based global economy is transitioning due to the impotence of monetary policy which has always, and is now increasingly focused on the elixir of low/negative interest rates. Don’t go near any modern day Delos Romans; don’t go near high risk markets, stay safe and plain vanilla. It’s not predetermined or guaranteed, but a more prosperous outcome should be somewhere around the corner if you do.” He concludes.

 

Lyxor Named “The Leading UCITS Hedge Fund Platform”

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Lyxor, galardonado como mejor plataforma de hedge funds del universo UCITS
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Tambako The Jaguar. Lyxor Named “The Leading UCITS Hedge Fund Platform”

Lyxor was named “The Leading UCITS Hedge Fund Platform” at the Hedge Fund Journal Awards 2016 held in London last week. This accolade highlights Lyxor’s outstanding accomplishments in the field of Alternative UCITS.

By the end of 2015, Lyxor grew its assets under management to $2bn across 8 alternative UCITS fund and is the 6th largest provider of Alternative UCITS funds. Lyxor’s Alternative UCITS Platform achieved a progression in assets of more than 30% vs. 2014 (and 450% vs. 2013). HFM Week also recently distinguished Lyxor as the 3rd platform with the highest growth in the industry last year (with net new assets of $504m in 2015).

Since the end of 2014, Lyxor has expanded its Alternative UCITS range with the launch of several new managers, including Capricorn Capital Managers with a long/short equity program focusing on global emerging markets, Chenavari’s European-focused long/ short credit strategy, and Och-Ziff with a Long/Short US equity fund. The firm is eyeing the addition of a further managers in 2016 and will look to add strategies that are currently not present or under-represented on the platform

 

Julius Baer Announces Final Settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice Regarding its Legacy U.S. Cross-Border Business

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Julius Baer acuerda con el Departamento de Justicia de Estados Unidos una multa de 547 millones de dólares
. Julius Baer Announces Final Settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice Regarding its Legacy U.S. Cross-Border Business

Julius Baer announced that it has reached a final settlement with the DOJ in connection with its legacy U.S. cross-border private banking business. This settlement is the result of Julius Baer’s proactive and long-standing cooperation with the DOJ’s investigation. The two Julius Baer employees indicted in this context in 2011 have also taken an important step towards a resolution of their cases.

Julius Baer has entered into a Deferred Prosecution Agreement pursuant to which it will pay USD 547.25 million. In anticipation of the final resolution, the Group had already taken provisions in June and December 2015, totalling this amount, and booked them to its 2015 results.

In announcing the settlement, Daniel J. Sauter, Chairman of Julius Baer, commented: “Julius Baer’s ability to reach this final settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice is the result of its constructive dialogue and cooperation with U.S. authorities. I would like to thank all our employees, clients and shareholders for their ongoing trust and support.”

Boris F.J. Collardi, CEO of Julius Baer, added: “Being able to close this regrettable legacy issue is an important milestone for Julius Baer. The settlement ends a long period of uncertainty for us and all our stakeholders. This resolution allows us now to again fully focus on the future and our business activities.”

Wes Sparks, of Schroders, Will Discuss High Yield Bond at the Funds Selector Summit 2016

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Wes Sparks, responsable de las estrategias de Crédito y de Renta fija de Schroders, hablará de deuda high yield en el Fund Selector Summit 2016
Wikimedia CommonsPhoto: Wes Sparks, Head of Credit Strategies and Fixed Income at Schroders. Wes Sparks, of Schroders, Will Discuss High Yield Bond at the Funds Selector Summit 2016

Continuing volatility and elevated risk premiums mean that high yield bond returns in 2016 could be in the mid single-digit range; however, Wes Sparks, Head of US Credit Strategies and Fixed Income at Schroders, believes that the asset’s expected performance will continue to make it attractive in relation to many other fixed income alternatives.

Wes Sparks will be discussing this market’s expected performance at the second edition of the Fund Selector Summit on the 28th and 29th of April. The meeting, aimed at leading fund selectors and investors within the US-Offshore business, will be held at the Ritz-Carlton Key Biscayne.

The event, a joint venture between Open Door Media, owner of InvestmentEurope, and Funds Society, provides an opportunity to hear several management companies’ view on the industry’s current issues. During his presentation, Sparks will also give his views on global corporate debt market, on which he is an expert following 22 years in the industry.

Wes Sparks is based in New York, leading the US team responsible for all of Schroders’ investment-grade and high yield credit portfolios. He is the lead fund manager for Schroder ISF Global High Yield, a position he has held since the inception of the fund in 2004, and is additionally a co-manager for Schroder ISF Global Corporate Bond and various US Multi-Sector funds.

Sparks joined Schroders in 2000 from Aeltus Investment Management (1999 to 2000) and Trust Company of the West (1996 to 1999), where he worked as Vice President and Portfolio Manager with the corporate sector.

You will find all the information regarding the Fund Selector Summit Miami 2016, which is aimed at leading fund selectors and investors within the US-Offshore business, in this link.