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The Morningstar European Institutional Conference Will Focus on Long-Term Investments

La VI Conferencia Institucional Europea de Morningstar se centrará en estrategias de inversión a largo plazo — CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Moyan Brenn . The Morningstar European Institutional Conference Will Focus on Long-Term Investments

The Morningstar Institutional Conference, to be held in Amsterdam on 17 and 18 March 2016, will explore key themes relevant to long-term investors and will provide a holistic view of the current investing environment through a diverse program of presentations from leading investors, academics and industry experts. The organization expects more than 200 investment professionals from across Europe to attend.

Headlining speakers include John C. Bogle, Founder and former Chief Executive of Vanguard and creator of the first index mutual fund. In a conversation with Morningstar’s Scott Cooley, transmitted live from Pennsylvania, Mr. Bogle will share his views on building effective portfolios for long-term investors and will challenge assumptions about active management. Attendees will also hear from James Montier, member of GMO’s asset allocation team, renowned author and expert on behavioral finance and value investing, who will explore the features of an independent-minded approach to investing and the challenges of implementing such a strategy in a multi-asset environment.

Haywood Kelly, Head of Global Research, of the organising firm will examine the landscape for sustainable investing and explain what the firm is doing to help individuals, advisors, and asset managers invest in ways that are meaningful to them. In addition, Thomas Idzorek, Head of Investment Methodology and Economic Research, Morningstar Investment Management group, will update and expand upon his ground- breaking research on the use of popularity as an investment tool.

Seilern Investment Management Wins Two Lipper Awards

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Seilern Investment Management recibe dos premios Lipper — Photo: Thomson Reuters. Seilern Investment Management Wins Two Lipper Awards

Seilern Investment Management, the long-term investment management company, won two awards at the Thomson Reuters Lipper Fund Awards in Switzerland. For its range of equity funds it won the Best Equity Group award (in the Small Company category) and for its flagship fund, Stryx World Growth GBP, Seilern won the 5 Year Performance award out of 358 Global Equity funds.

These awards, coming shortly after Stryx World Growth reached its 20-year milestone, may be attributed to Seilern’s highly focused strategy; commitment to investing in quality growth businesses and holding them through the business cycle.

Seilern combines a rigorous process and proprietary research to identify the highest quality growth companies with superior business models, stable and predictable earnings, and a sustainable competitive advantage. The resulting shortlist, of no more than 70 companies in the world, forms the ‘Seilern Universe’, and from this pool of companies the fund managers select 17-25 stocks per fund providing investors with a concentrated high-conviction portfolio. Once invested, these companies are then held by the funds for the long-term, often for a period of many years.

Peter Seilern-Aspang, founder of the company and architect of the investment process commented: “It is very much a team effort at Seilern, so these awards mean a tremendous amount. We are very focused on finding the best companies and leaving them to grow, an approach that has worked well over the last 20 years.”

Capital Strategies Partners has an strategic agreement to cover Spain, Italy, Switzerland and LatAm market for Seilern Investment Management.

Negative Rates Explained: Are Central Banks Opening Pandora’s Box?

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Tipos de interés negativos: ¿están los bancos centrales abriendo la caja de Pandora? — CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Mark Vegas. Negative Rates Explained: Are Central Banks Opening Pandora’s Box?

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has followed central banks in Denmark, the Eurozone, Sweden and Switzerland by imposing a negative interest rate on a portion of commercial bank reserves – see chart. In Switzerland and Sweden, the main policy interest rate, as well as the marginal rate on reserves, is below zero. Short-term interbank interest rates are negative in all five cases, explains Simon Ward, Chief Economist at Henderson.

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Danish rates were cut below zero to preserve the currency peg with the euro. Unwanted currency strength was also a key reason for the Swiss and Swedish moves to negative. The European Central Bank (ECB) and BoJ justify negative rates by reference to their inflation targets, but both central banks have welcomed currency weakness in recent years.

“An individual bank can avoid negative rates by using excess liquidity to increase lending or invest in securities. This is not, however, possible for the banking system as a whole, since the total amount of reserves is fixed by the central bank. A reduction in reserves by one bank will be matched by an increase for others. Negative rates, therefore, act as a tax on the banking system. The Danish, Swiss and Japanese systems reduce this tax by imposing negative rates only on the top tier of bank reserves,” says Ward.

Pros and cons

According to the expert, supporters of negative rates argue that a cut to below zero provides a net economic stimulus, even if the effects are smaller than a reduction when rates are positive. The move to negative, they claim, puts further downward pressure on banks’ lending and deposit rates, boosting borrowing and deterring “hoarding”. It also encourages “portfolio rebalancing” into higher-risk / foreign investments, implying a rise in asset prices and / or a fall in the exchange rate. Higher asset prices may yield a positive “wealth effect” on demand, while a lower currency stimulates net exports.

And, opponents of negative rates, highlights Chief Economist at Henderson, argue that they squeeze banks’ profitability, making them less likely to expand their balance sheets. Banks in the above countries have been unwilling to impose negative rates on retail deposits, fearing that such action would trigger large-scale cash withdrawals. This has limited their ability to lower lending rates without damaging margins. Banks need to maintain profits to generate capital to back lending expansion. Any boost to asset prices from negative rates, moreover, is likely to prove temporary without an improvement in “fundamentals”, while exchange rate depreciation is a zero-sum game.

Cash withdrawal

Ward points out that radical thinkers such as the Bank of England’s Andrew Haldane have suggested increasing the scope and effectiveness of negative rates by placing restrictions on or penalising the use of cash. Such measures could allow banks to impose negative rates on retail as well as wholesale deposits without suffering large-scale withdrawals, thereby increasing their ability to lower lending rates while maintaining or increasing margins. Such proposals may be of theoretical interest but are unlikely to be politically feasible. They are dangerous, since they risk undermining public confidence in money’s role as a store of value.

Just the beginning?

As a conlusion, Henerson´expert says that central banks’ experimentation with negative rates is likely to extend. “ECB President Draghi has given a strong indication of a further cut in the deposit rate in March, while the recent BoJ move is widely viewed as a first step. The ECB may copy other central banks by introducing a tiered system to mitigate the negative impact on bank profits and increase the scope for an even lower marginal rate. The necessity and wisdom of such initiatives are open to question. The risk is that central bankers are opening Pandora’s Box and that any short-term stimulus benefits will be outweighed by longer-term damage to the banking system and public confidence in monetary stability”, concludes.

Simon Ward is Chief Economist at Henderson.

The Headlines Are Relentless, but the News Isn’t All Bad

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No todo son malas noticias — CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Allan Ajifo. The Headlines Are Relentless, but the News Isn't All Bad

So far in 2016, the headlines have been somewhat harrowing: China imploding. Banking problems in Europe. Devastation in the oil patch. To be sure, there are reasons for concern. World trade is declining on a year-over-year basis. We’re not yet at recession levels, but there is a slowdown. What is not yet clear is whether the slowdown will be temporary or prolonged.

China remains a major concern as it attempts to transition from an export-driven society to one based on consumption. Both imports and exports have been declining, and concerns over China’s banking sector are mounting. Thankfully, Chinese debt is not owned by many investors outside the country, so a Chinese debt or banking crisis, while painful, would likely not have the same sort of global ripple effects that the US mortgage crisis did in 2007–2009.

Consumption creeps up

Meanwhile, the Chinese consumer is beginning to carry more weight. Consumption is growing year over year, and housing markets have picked up in China in recent months. I don’t anticipate implosion taking place there.

Europe is a mixed bag at the moment. While German exports are slowing, consumption in the eurozone is picking up and easy monetary policy remains in place. Japan’s diversified economy is in the midst of a multiyear re-engineering push — but without much to show for it thus far.

US consumer spending accounts for a larger share of the global economy than the entire economic output of China does. And US consumers kicked into gear in January. Apparently they didn’t get the memo about all the bad news in the rest of the world. US real incomes are rising, wages are growing and both the number of workers and their hours worked are climbing.

Overall, the global backdrop does not suggest an imminent recession.

Corrections don’t necessarily signal recessions

History tells us that market declines like we’ve seen so far in 2016 don’t always signal a recession. Since 1959, there have been 11 declines in the S&P 500 of the magnitude we’ve seen in recent months —between 10% and 19% declines. Three of those episodes ended in recession, while the other eight did not. The average decline during those eight episodes was approximately 16%. And just six months after the decline ended, the average return on the S&P was 18%–19%. It’s also worth noting that the average forward P/E ratio in those periods was 19 to 20 times. Today it is a more reasonable 15½ times.

Still some work to do

So are we headed for a recession? In my opinion, there isn’t a “yes” or “no” answer, but rather a two-stage process at work. The continued fall in oil prices —largely due to falling demand from China— is an input cost, and falling costs will initially cause some capital destruction. No doubt there will be defaults by energy companies that are geared to crude oil prices of $70, $80 or $100 per barrel. However, once the loss of capital works its way through the system, there will be a boost to manufacturing in the form of higher profits based on lower input costs.

As another ripple effect of China’s recent woes, the decline in commodity prices is suppressing expectations of higher interest rates — the cost of capital. Now we have two input costs that are likely to remain relatively low for the balance of 2016. And those should eventually benefit big economies like the US, the eurozone, Japan and, strangely enough, China itself.

Anxiety is understandable, and investors are wise to be cautious. It is probably best for investors to hold back a bit and to watch the macroeconomic data for the world’s major economies in the next few months. That should help us figure out if the worst of the crisis has passed.

James Swanson is Chief Investment Strategist at MFS Investment Management.

Record Year for European Investment Funds with All-Time High Net Sales of EUR 725 Billion

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The European Fund and Asset Management Association (EFAMA) has published its latest quarterly statistical release which describes the trends in the European investment fund industry during the fourth quarter of 2015, and the results for the year 2015.

2015 was a record year for the European investment fund industry. Net sales of European investment funds rose to an all-time high of EUR 725 billion in 2015 and assets under management broke through to EUR 12 trillion thanks for a growth rate of 11%.

Further highlights on the developments in 2015 include:

Investment fund assets in Europe increased by 11.3% to EUR 12,581 billion. Overall, net assets of UCITS increased by 13% to EUR 8,168 billion. Net assets of AIF increased by 8.3% to EUR 4,412 billion.
Net sales of UCITS reached EUR 573 billion. Demand for UCITS reached its highest level ever in 2015.
Long-term UCITS enjoyed a record year. Long-term UCITS recorded net inflows of EUR 496 billion, compared to EUR 479 billion in 2014.
Multi-asset funds attracted the largest net inflows (EUR 236 billion) as the broad market, asset class and sector diversification offered by balanced funds attract investors.
Equity funds recorded the best year for net sales since 2000 (EUR 134 billion) as investors remained overall confident in the economic outlook for Europe and the willingness of the ECB maintain its accommodative monetary stance to support activity.
Bond funds recorded lower net sales (EUR 83 billion) compared to 2014 against the background of a reversal in bond yields and the associated uncertainty concerning the evolution of the bond market.
Money market funds saw a turnaround in net flows, ending the year with positive net inflows (EUR 77 billion) for the first time since 2008.
Net sales of AIF reached EUR 152 billion, compared to EUR 149 billion in 2014.

Bernard Delbecque, Director of Economics and Research at EFAMA, commented: “The growth of fund assets has been substantially positive across Europe, with a very few exceptions, confirming investor confidence in UCITS and AIF.”

Abenomics in Crisis

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¿Corre Abenomics peligro de fracasar? — CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Chan Chen. Abenomics in Crisis

Japan’s economy contracted at an annualized rate of -1.4% in the fourth quarter. That was much worse than the Bloomberg consensus was looking for. Declining industrial production and weak household spending had pointed at renewed contraction risk. Most Japan watchers were probably focusing on the country’s composite PMI index, which improved to 52.3 in Q4 the best quarter in nearly two years.

Japan has already seen three recessions since 2009. In fact, in six years starting in 2010, Japan’s GDP has contracted in 11 out of 24 quarters(!). Amazingly the economy has still not recovered from the ill-advised Consumption Tax hike in April of 2014. Private consumption declined again in Q4 and is now 5.4% below the pre-tax hike peak.

The decline in consumer spending has been more than twice as large as the consumption contraction during in the 2008/09 financial market crisis. That’s astonishing for such the relatively small tax increase and for an economy essentially on full employment. Residential investment contracted mildly last quarter and inventories shaved 0.5% off the quarterly growth rate. The only bright spot was a 5.7% annualized increase in business investment.

Where is government?

I am surprised we are not seeing more fiscal spending in Japan. The government had promised to offset the Consumption Tax increase with fiscal stimulus, which never materialized. The average contribution to quarterly GDP growth after the second quarter of 2014 was a mere 0.2%.

The weak growth trend in Japan is another serious blow to the effectiveness of monetary policy as a growth stimulus tool. The Bank of Japan has been buying about $70 billion worth of bonds and ETFs every month for the past three years with very little growth or inflation to show for. Now the BOJ is trying negative interest rates, a tool that has not been tested and whose side effects are not yet fully understood.

Japan is trapped in a low interest rate world. What the economy needs is a significantly weaker currency to boost inflation, corporate profits and wages. Yet, with global interest rates unwilling to rise, the BOJ evidently felt compelled to widen the interest rate differential by further lowering Japanese rates. So far we haven’t seen any lasting effect on the yen.

Forecast impact.

Similar to the US, Japan will struggle to exceed last year’s growth rate in 2016. The sharp decline at the end of last year has lowered the starting point for 2016 such that even the 1.3% average quarterly growth rate we are forecasting will only add up to 0.5% growth for the full year. Like in the US, looking at the Q4/Q43 growth rate will be more informative about the growth momentum. Here we expect a modest improvement from the 0.7% last quarter to 1.2% at the end of this year.

Abenomics is in danger of failing. Structural reforms have done little to raise Japan’s actual growth rate. The damage from last year consumption tax still dominates the household sector, reflecting the lack of income growth, which could have offset the modest tax hike. Absent faster rate hikes in the US there is little the Bank of Japan can do to stimulate growth and the focus is shifting back to fiscal policy.

Much of that is likely to be timed for the June Upper House elections where the ruling LDP enjoys a big majority. Elections for the Lower House where the cushion is much thinner aren’t required until 2018. So Prime Minister Abe has two more years to turn the economy around. More stimulative fiscal policy and greater efforts to weaken the yen as the year progresses should eventually boost growth and help Japan avoid a fourth recession since 2009.

Markus Schomer is a Managing Director and Chief Economist of PineBridge Investments.

Matthews Asia’s Kenichi Amaki to join Miami Summit

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Kenichi Amaki, potfolio manager de Matthews Asia, analizará en detalle las reformas llevadas a cabo en Japón en el Fund Selector Summit de Miami — Photo: Kenichi Amaki, potfolio manager at Matthews Asia.. Matthews Asia’s Kenichi Amaki to join Miami Summit

Kenichi Amaki, portfolio manager at Matthews Asia is set to join the Second Edition of the Funds Selector Summit to be held on 28^th and 29^th of April in Miami.

Amaki manages the firm’s Japan Strategy and co-manages the Asia Small Companies and China Small Companies Strategies. Now that the time has come to re-engage with Japan, he will share his perspective on the relevance of key governance changes that investors may have overlooked with all eyes on “Abenomics.” Kenichi will also explain how Japan has transformed from a “value” market to a “growth” market, and how the Matthews Japan strategy provides exposure to interesting investment opportunities across the market-cap spectrum.

The conference, aimed at leading funds selectors and investors from the US-Offshore business, will be held at the Ritz-Carlton Key Biscayne. The event-a joint venture between Open Door Media, owner of InvestmentEurope, and Fund Society- will provide an opportunity to hear the view of several managers on the current state of the industry.

Prior joining in 2008 as a research analyst, he was an investment officer for a family trust based in Monaco, researching investment opportunities primarily in Japan. From 2001 to 2004, he worked on the International Pension Fund Team at Nomura Asset Management in Tokyo.

Kenichi received a BA in Law from Keio University in Japan and an MBA from the University of California, Berkeley, and is fluent in Japanese.

You can find all the information about the Fund Selector Miami Summit 2016, aimed at leading fund selectors and investors from the US-Offshore business, through this link.

UBS Global AM: “Now is A Great Time for US Growth Companies”

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The markets may be nervous at the moment, plagued by issues like uncertainty in commodities and the structural changes faced by China, but there is no cause for concern around some assets, such as US equities, because the situation is a far cry from 2008. “There are weak spots in the market – the energy and industrials sectors, for example – but we are optimistic and we expect the situation to improve,” says Grant M. Bughman, manager of the US growth equity strategy at UBS Global AM.

At an investor presentation held last week in Madrid, he recognized that the S&P 500 companies have not seen earnings acceleration but highlighted areas where earnings growth has been remarkable.“Now is a great time for US growth companies because they have proven that they can grow in any environment.” Bughman especially likes growth stocks in the IT and healthcare sectors, which are currently overweight in the UBS USA Growth portfolio.

These are quality companies that can gain market share, have pricing power and are able to grow and generate revenues in any environment, even a tough one like the present time. Bughman hails the benefits of growth versus value companies, which include banking sector names and more cyclical stocks. “When it comes to investing in US equities in a lower-growth environment, growth companies work best,” he says. Growth companies are also inexpensive, with valuations currently below their historical 14-year average.

Fundamental strategy

The fund’s portfolio comprises 45 stocks selected through a fundamental research process, midway between concentration and diversification. Stocks are divided into three groups: classic growth companies (such as Nike or Home Depot, which the managers buy when the valuations are compelling); “elite growth” companies, that is, companies in a period of high growth (such as Facebook, a “secular winner” which will benefit from the shift from traditional to online and mobile advertising and which has featured in the fund’s portfolio since its IPO), and cyclical stocks which enjoy more opportunistic growth (such as Delta Airlines). The latter tend to make up around 10% of the portfolio but currently account for less, given the complex backdrop. Fast-growing companies, which have outperformed in recent years, also have a smaller slice of the portfolio at the moment, making room for increased exposure to classic growth stocks.

“The three groups of stocks complement each other in the portfolio, which is designed to perform well in any environment.” It does not include energy sector stocks, “not because we have an outlook on where crude prices are headed, but because the risk-return trade-off is not attractive at this point.” The fund manager, who points out that the collapse in energy prices has not led to increased consumer spending in the US – the fund is underweight the consumer sector – explains that the drop in oil prices stems from the excess supply, adding that some players will be forced out of the business and into bankruptcy, especially if current prices mean they can’t repay their debt. “No-one knows where commodities prices will go but we don’t see them trending upwards over the long term.”

Volatility creates opportunities

Despite the many challenges that lie ahead, Bughman believes that the best strategy in the current environment is to take advantage of volatility, which he says “creates opportunities to use our tools and rebalance portfolios, adding good names at more compelling prices,” especially if you take a long-term view. He believes the selloffs we are seeing in 2016 are indiscriminate and that there are opportunities to be found in stocks that are falling for no reason but fear alone.

When it comes to challenges like China, which will no longer be enjoying double-digit growth, Bughman points out that whilst the US is not an island its exposure through exports is smaller than countries like Japan and Germany. He refers to two US sectors: industrials, which is more closely linked to the emerging markets and will therefore underperform, and the services sector, which is more exposed to the domestic economy and is performing better as employment climbs, salaries improve and support aimed at boosting consumer spending gains momentum. He does add, however, that the upturn in consumer spending has only been observed among part of the US population and is not widespread. He is not worried, though, because household deleveraging and saving means healthier balance sheets, which may not lead to steep spending growth in the short term but will underpin a more robust improvement in the future.

Limited Fed action in 2016

With regard to the Fed, Bughman believes interest rates will stay low for longer and does not expect to see 4 rate hikes this year, as Fed previosly announced. “The Fed took the first step in December and unleashed volatility in equity and credit markets, driving up financing costs. The Fed has continually repeated the mantra that they will be data-dependent and given our generally positive view we see support for further future hikes, but not at the pace the Fed had anticipated to start the year,” he says, completely ruling out another hike in March. He believes rates could be raised as of June if the situation is more stable but expects Yellen to take a cautious stance in a deflationist environment. “The market is still underestimating how long interest rates will remain low. The path of rate hikes will be modest,” he adds.

Monaco to Examine Draft Law on Multi Family Offices

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Mónaco prepara un ley para regular la actividad de los multi family offices en el Principado — CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Paul Wilkinson . Monaco to Examine Draft Law on Multi Family Offices

The national council of Monaco, the Principality’s parliament, is to examine a draft law on multi family offices’ activity in Monaco.

It points out that if single family offices have been run for years in Monaco, multi family offices which have started to flourish in recent years in the Principality remain unregulated so far in the country.

The further law will then provide a regulatory framework to the business.

Moreover, it seeks to promote Monaco as a centre of excellence for family offices, pursuing therefore Monaco’s government plan that aims to make the country more attractive to ultra-high-net-worth individuals and entrepreneurs.

Among compliance obligations enshrined in the draft law, multi family offices conducting financial transactions will have to be granted a license by Monaco’s state minister and will be subject to regulatory approval by Monaco’s financial authority, the Commission de contrôle des activités financières (CCAF).

Also multi family offices in Monaco will have to be structured in Monegasque public limited companies (Société anonyme monégasque).

Michael Roberge, MFS’ co-CEO: “We Do Not Believe The United States Will Fall into Recession in 2016”

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Michael Roberge, MFS’ CIO and co-CEO, was recently in Miami where he met with more than 120 investors in two events organized by Jose Corena, Managing Director for the aforementioned management company, together with Paul Britto, Regional Director, and Natalia Rodriguez, Internal Wholesaler.

Roberge, who has been working with the company for the past 20 years, began his review of the global macroeconomic and business landscape by emphasizing the huge disconnect between what markets are discounting and the realities of the economy. The current environment is much more favorable than a year ago, because, according to MFS’ co-CEO, market downturns have led to more attractive entry prices. “It is undeniable that there are risks. A year ago the markets were calm and everyone was buying, even though all asset classes were overvalued,” he pointed out.

But the fear factor currently extending through the market is not so much a concern over valuations, but is more focused on the possibility of a recession on the horizon. For Roberge, even if the market discount rate reflects a scenario of great pessimism, the United States will not fall into recession in 2016.

“Consumption accounts for seventy percent of US GDP, and its health is enviable. The unemployment rate is declining and heading towards 4%; real wages are rising by about 2-2.5%; and the price of energy has fallen considerably in the last 18 months — which for the consumer’s disposable income is comparable to a tax cut” he claimed.

“US manufacturing, which accounts for about 10% of the overall economy, is underperforming the consumer-oriented sectors of the US economy,” he said. “This is due to both a stronger dollar, which hurts exports, as well as a clean-up of accumulated inventories during the past year. Once these inventories have been depleted, it is likely that the manufacturing sector will not continue to be a drag on GDP growth.”

Finally, Roberge said that the public sector, which in recent years has either been neutral or has had a negative contribution, will contribute between 0.6% and 0.7% to GDP growth in 2016 through a combination of tax cuts and increased spending. “In short, the US economy is in good shape. Doing the math, it seems highly unlikely that the US goes into recession unless an exogenous factor which significantly affects consumer confidence takes place,” he explained to attendees. The factors which could affect consumption are gasoline prices and interest rates, neither of which appears to be going up this year.

Global Growth

With respect to global growth, a stronger US dollar helps Europe, as it favors exporters, and ultimately its manufacturing sector. The MFS executive believes this will last throughout 2016. He also believes the Old Continent is benefiting greatly from low energy prices. For its part, Japan is not likely to contribute in any great measure to global growth this year. Finally, emerging markets are expected to be the part of the world that will continue to deteriorate in 2016. “Continued pressure from China means they will grow, but less than last year. If we look at the world as a whole, I think there is a very low probability of falling into recession. It is the market which is mistaken and not the fundamentals of the economy,” he said.

With all of this on the table, MFS’ advice for investors is to consider equities over high quality bonds. The reason, he said, is very simple. The average dividend yield currently stands at 2.4%, while the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury is 2%. So unless the economy falls into recession, “which is something we do not believe will happen, it is better to have an emphasis on equities, given the current lack of profitability in the bond market.”

Limited Opportunities in Fixed Income

Among the few opportunities currently offered by fixed income securities, Roberge mentioned the high yield bond market, where the average yield is around 9%. “It will probably beat equities this year,” therefore, he believes it’s a good idea to include this asset in a portfolio. “We believe that the market is being a lot more pessimistic about high yield market conditions than our own vision of what will really happen. The key factors here are volatility and liquidity, two factors which are of great concern, but the market has already discounted both of those risks. This year, high yield should perform much better than US Treasuries and, in our opinion, also much better than stocks.”

MFS’ co-CEO also opts for dollar-denominated emerging market debt, and explains that “during the last five or six years, we have seen a flattening in the debt curve of developed countries, due to the slowdown in growth and the monetary policies of central banks, and we believe that the next debt cycle will favor emerging markets. We prefer debt issued in dollars because local currencies are still exposed to risk from China, to the price risk of raw materials, and to what the Fed does throughout the year,” he added.

The market is expecting the Fed to raise interest rates again in March, but MFS does not believe that will be the case. Roberge ventures that the board headed by Janet Yellen will go easy. “It is likely that this time it may be the Fed which moves the market and not vice versa. It will be difficult for the board to raise interest rates since the major central banks in the developed world continue easing monetary policy due to global deflationary pressures. Therefore, we do not see the Fed raising rates four times this year, and have positioned our portfolios accordingly,” he said.

In his analysis of Latin American countries, MFS’ co-CEO explained that there is dollar-denominated Mexican debt in their portfolios, and Argentine debt has recently been added as a result of the political changes brought about by recent elections. With respect to Venezuela, given political circumstances and the price of oil, the Boston-based firm believes that at some point it will have to restructure its debt because its current levels are unsustainable.

“Brazil has a lot of challenges,” he said. “The economy is stagnant, inflation is high, and the central bank has little room for maneuver; added to all this is the political turmoil as a result of corruption exposed during the last year. These factors make it almost impossible to implement the reforms which the country needs.”