Goldman Sachs Strengthens Its Bet on Active ETFs With the Acquisition of Innovator Capital Management

  |   By  |  0 Comentarios

Canva

The Goldman Sachs Group has signed an agreement to acquire Innovator Capital Management (Innovator), an ETF firm currently managing $28 billion in assets under management and specializing in income, targeted buffer, and growth strategies. According to the firm, the transaction will significantly expand Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s (Goldman Sachs AM) ETF range and future product roadmap, while strengthening its offering in one of the fastest-growing categories of active ETFs.

“Active ETFs are dynamic, transformative, and have been one of the fastest-growing segments in today’s public market investing landscape. With the acquisition of Innovator, Goldman Sachs will broaden access to modern, best-in-class investment products for investor portfolios. Innovator’s reputation for innovation and leadership in defined outcome solutions complements our mission to enhance the client experience with sophisticated strategies aimed at delivering specific, defined outcomes for investors,” said David Solomon, Chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs.

For Bruce Bond, CEO of Innovator, this transaction marks a key milestone for the business. “Goldman Sachs has a long history of identifying emerging trends and significant directional shifts within the asset management industry. We are excited to bring top-tier investment solutions to clients within the ETF space and to expand our business in this leading, high-growth, and strategically important category. These synergies, among many others, make Goldman Sachs an ideal partner for us,” said Bond.

Defined Outcome Strategies
Global assets under management in active ETFs have reached $1.6 trillion, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 47% since 2020, as investors increasingly access public markets through the ETF wrapper.

According to the firm, defined outcome ETFs — which have grown at a CAGR of 66% since 2020 — are a key component of the fast-growing active ETF market, driven by the goal of offering innovative structured strategies in accessible formats. Based on their experience, investors are increasingly using defined outcome ETFs to incorporate a broad and customizable range of objectives into their portfolios that address their risk management and return needs.

Defined outcome ETFs use derivatives and options-based strategies aimed at delivering specific objectives, such as downside protection, enhanced returns, and predefined outcomes when held for the full outcome period, enabling investors to build and customize portfolios through the ETF’s tax-efficient wrapper.

The Transaction
As of September 30, 2025, Goldman Sachs Asset Management and Innovator manage over 215 ETF strategies globally, representing more than $75 billion in total assets, placing Goldman Sachs AM among the top ten providers of active ETFs. According to the firm, the acquisition is part of Goldman Sachs AM’s broader strategy to grow its leadership in innovative and expanding investment categories, and to deliver compelling investment performance and service to clients. The firm offers sophisticated strategies to investors as an industry leader in direct indexing and separately managed accounts, as well as through access to alternative investment strategies via its evergreen G-Series funds and active ETFs.

Following the transaction, Bruce Bond, co-founder and CEO of Innovator; John Southard, co-founder and President; Graham Day, Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer (CIO); and Trevor Terrell, Senior Vice President and Head of Distribution, will join Goldman Sachs AM. Additionally, more than 60 Innovator employees are expected to join Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s Third-Party Wealth (TPW) and ETF teams. The business will be wholly owned by Goldman Sachs AM, and investment managers and service providers will remain unchanged.

The firm emphasizes that this acquisition strategically expands its more stable revenue base and reinforces its commitment to providing institutional and individual investors with comprehensive solutions. The transaction is expected to be valued at approximately $2 billion, payable in a combination of cash and stock, subject to the achievement of certain performance targets. The deal is anticipated to close in the second quarter of 2026, subject to regulatory approval and customary closing conditions.

Nomura Completes Acquisition of Macquarie’s Exchange-Traded Asset Management Business in the U.S. and Europe

  |   By  |  0 Comentarios

Canva

Nomura Has Successfully Completed the Acquisition of Macquarie’s Exchange-Traded Asset Management Business in the U.S. and Europe. According to the company, the purchase price was 1.8 billion U.S. dollars, and the closing of the transaction incorporates approximately 166 billion U.S. dollars (as of October 31, 2025) in assets from retail and institutional clients across equity, fixed income, and multi-asset strategies, under Nomura’s global brand, Nomura Asset Management.

As announced in April 2025, Nomura will integrate its private markets business, Nomura Capital Management (NCM), and its high-yield business, Nomura Corporate Research and Asset Management (NCRAM), together with the acquired assets to form Nomura Asset Management International, which will be part of Nomura Asset Management.

“The successful closing of this transaction marks an important step toward our 2030 Management Vision by boosting our assets under management and diversifying and strengthening our platform,” said Kentaro Okuda, President and CEO of Nomura Group.

New CEO and Strategic Alliance


Headquartered in New York and Philadelphia, Shawn Lytle will be CEO of Nomura Asset Management International, and Robert Stark, President and Deputy CEO of Nomura Asset Management International. Lytle was formerly Head of the Americas for Macquarie Group, while Mr. Stark will continue in his current role as CEO of Nomura Capital Management and will report functionally to Yoshihiro Namura, Head of Nomura’s Investment Management Division, and Satoshi Kawamura, CEO and President of Nomura Holding America Inc., from a corporate perspective.

“The new combined business has a strong foundation, with a well-diversified platform across all major asset classes and client segments. We now have an exciting opportunity to strengthen the combined capabilities of the new business and grow the franchise globally,” said Shawn Lytle, CEO of Nomura Asset Management International.

In addition to completing the transaction, Macquarie and Nomura have formalized a strategic alliance for product distribution and joint development of investment strategies, as initially announced in April 2025. Under the agreement, Nomura will distribute certain private funds from Macquarie to high-net-worth clients and family offices in the U.S.

The alliance also establishes collaboration in developing innovative investment solutions for clients in the U.S. and Japan. “We have created a joint task force between Nomura and Macquarie, as part of this alliance, to explore additional opportunities aimed at generating value for clients through increased collaboration between the two organizations,” the company stated.

Key Statements


Following the announcement, Chris Willcox, Head of Nomura’s Investment Management Division and Head of Wholesale, stated: “We are delighted to have completed this acquisition ahead of schedule and to welcome our new colleagues from Macquarie Asset Management.”

Meanwhile, Yoshihiro Namura, Head of the Investment Management Division, added: “Our goal with this transaction is simple: to build a global platform with excellent capabilities and investment outcomes that help clients achieve what matters most to them. I believe the new leadership team, led by Shawn and Robert, is in an ideal position to realize our ambitions.”

How Asset Managers Will Turn the Global Wealth Boom Into Business

  |   By  |  0 Comentarios

Canva

Although the asset management industry is undergoing a clear process of transformation and consolidation—leading to fewer players in the market—the reality is that business opportunities remain strong. According to estimates from the latest report by Morgan Stanley and Oliver Wyman, global household financial wealth is on track to reach 393 trillion U.S. dollars by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.5%. In other words, individuals will continue to need investment products.

In fact, global household financial wealth reached 301 trillion U.S. dollars in 2024, marking a 7% increase in 2023 and an 8% rise in 2024. Its growth was resilient across all regions, with the Americas and the Middle East & Africa showing the largest gains, excluding currency effects. However, when adjusted for currency, real growth in U.S. dollars was moderate across all regions, with negative growth in Latin America and Japan.

Looking ahead, the report projects that global financial wealth will grow at an annual rate of 5.5% through 2029, returning to a level closer to the 6% annual rate observed between 2019 and 2023. In absolute terms, wealth growth remains heavily concentrated in North America and APAC. Europe’s wealth could benefit from supportive policies and increased household investment allocation in the future. The Middle East and Africa, as well as Latin America, show steady growth. Overall, growth rates are lower than in previous reports due to the inclusion of life insurance, pensions, and the wealth bracket below 0.3 million dollars.

The analysis also shows that, in terms of onshore investable financial wealth—defined as financial wealth held onshore excluding assets in insurance policies and pensions—ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWIs) and high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) will continue to drive wealth creation with annual growth rates of 8.0% and 6.6%, respectively, over the next five years. However, the upper end of the Affluent/Lower-HNWI group remains a significant opportunity for asset managers globally: a segment that is “wealthy but underserved” and offers significantly higher revenue potential than the UHNWI and HNWI space. Asset managers that can tailor their offerings and manage costs can unlock growth in this segment.

Offshore financial wealth totaled 14 trillion U.S. dollars in 2024, with cross-border wealth flows growing at nearly 10% annually, outpacing global growth. Geopolitical uncertainty and diversification needs among UHNWI clients are sustaining demand for booking centers in safe havens. The three largest cross-border wealth hubs—Switzerland, Hong Kong, and Singapore—are expected to capture nearly two-thirds of new inflows through 2029. Outside these top centers, the United States and the United Arab Emirates are projected to see the fastest growth, with the U.S. benefiting from Latin American flows and the UAE expanding its appeal beyond the Middle East.

In terms of converting clients into profit, the challenge for asset managers will be to tap into this expanding pool while managing costs effectively. The report highlights that revenue margins in the sector dropped by 6 basis points in 2024 and another 3 basis points in the first half of 2025. Three out of four leading firms recorded declines, and only half offset them through cost reductions—further highlighting pressure on margins.

Clients with a net worth between 1 and 10 million U.S. dollars are identified as a key segment. This group is the largest by volume, offers higher basis-point returns than UHNWIs, and is seeing the entry of many new participants who are unadvised and holding substantial cash reserves. To win in this segment, leading asset managers are mobilizing five strategic catalysts:

  1. Modular investment solutions with varying levels of performance protection.

  2. Portfolio anchoring with tax-efficient equities, fixed income, and structured solutions for growth, income, and protection.

  3. Transparent packaging and value-based pricing.

  4. A hybrid human-digital model supported by robust digital and AI layers.

  5. Enhanced client acquisition channels.

At the same time, asset managers are being warned against over-reliance on market beta. Between 2015 and 2024, only about one-third of asset manager growth came from net new money, prompting firms to focus more on relationship manager productivity, pricing discipline, and increasing wallet share from existing clients.

Morgan Stanley and Oliver Wyman emphasize that asset managers must urgently readjust their costs: “Many cost-to-income ratios (CIRs) hover around 75%, with personnel accounting for around two-thirds of operating expenses. Operating model programs can unlock between 10% and 25% in gross savings before reinvestment.”

“The Dollar Is Being Questioned, But Not Replaced”

  |   By  |  0 Comentarios

Photo courtesyPhilippe Dauba-Pantanacce, Global Head of Geopolitics & Senior Economist at Standard Chartered.

Although “de-dollarization” is advancing in some emerging markets and several countries are seeking to reduce their dependence on the dollar, it remains the main currency for international trade, as well as for global reserves and financial markets. “The dollar is not dead, but it is taking on new forms,” says Philippe Dauba-Pantanacce, Global Head of Geopolitics & Senior Economist at Standard Chartered, who believes that the future of the U.S. currency faces a global context shaped by political tensions, changes in supply chains, and a globalization that is also not dead—but is likewise taking on new forms.

According to the economist, the dollar faces growing challenges: “More and more countries are seeking to reduce their dependence on the dollar, partly because the United States has used the dollar as a weapon for political purposes.” For Dauba-Pantanacce, one example is the exclusion of Russian banks from SWIFT or the prolonged sanctions on Iran, which “has led many emerging markets to question the neutrality of a currency they view as too closely tied to decisions made in Washington,” he explains.

Even so, the Standard Chartered expert stresses that this trend does not imply a collapse of the dollar. According to his analysis, “de-dollarization is real, but progressing slowly and does not change the fact that the dollar remains the dominant currency in international trade, global reserves, and financial markets.” He also notes that, even in recent episodes of volatility, the dollar has regained its role as a safe-haven asset, demonstrating that its leadership remains intact.

When discussing possible alternatives, Dauba-Pantanacce emphasizes that none are in a position to replace it. In the case of the renminbi, he explained that China’s ambition clashes with its own capital controls. As for the euro, he acknowledges it has potential, but notes that “to elevate a currency, you need a liquid capital market,” and today Europe still lacks the financial depth that would allow the euro to compete with the dollar on equal footing. Regarding the BRICS, he adds that the idea of a common currency is unrealistic and lacks both the political will and integrated financial structures.

In conclusion, Dauba-Pantanacce believes the world is moving toward a more multipolar structure, with several currencies gaining some ground as globalization evolves. But he stresses that this process does not signal the end of the dollar’s leadership: “Its enormous liquidity, the size of the Treasuries market, and its status as a global safe haven remain unmatched. The dollar is being questioned, but it is not being replaced.”

Deutsche Börse Confirms Exclusive Talks to Acquire Allfunds

  |   By  |  0 Comentarios

Photo courtesy

Following recent rumors reported in the financial press, Allfunds and Deutsche Börse have each issued statements confirming that they are in “exclusive negotiations” regarding a potential acquisition by Deutsche Börse of all issued and outstanding share capital of Allfunds.

“Allfunds confirms that it has been approached by Deutsche Börse AG (Deutsche Börse) and is in exclusive negotiations with it regarding a possible acquisition of Allfunds by Deutsche Börse. The Board of Directors of Allfunds has unanimously agreed to enter a period of exclusivity based on the proposal submitted by Deutsche Börse,” Allfunds explained in its statement.

For its part, Deutsche Börse expressed caution and noted that “the announcement of any binding offer regarding a potential acquisition is subject to the satisfaction or, where applicable, waiver of a number of customary conditions precedent, including, among others, the successful completion of customary due diligence on Allfunds, the finalization of definitive transaction documentation, and final approval by the Boards of Directors of both Deutsche Börse and Allfunds.”

The proposal entails a total consideration of €8.80 per Allfunds share, valuing the company at €5.29 billion. The proposed payment would be structured as follows:

  • €4.30 per Allfunds share in cash;

  • €4.30 in new Deutsche Börse shares for each Allfunds share—calculated based on the 10-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of Deutsche Börse shares prior to the announcement, unaffected by the deal;

  • €0.20 per Allfunds share for fiscal year 2025, as a permitted cash dividend to be paid by Allfunds in 2026.

Deutsche Börse’s Rationale

Deutsche Börse Group stated it strongly believes in the “solid strategic, commercial, and financial rationale” of combining Allfunds with its own fund services business segment. “This potential business combination would represent a successful new consolidation, creating a true pan-European ecosystem. It would reduce fragmentation in the European investment fund industry and result in a harmonized, globally scaled business that would play a key role in further facilitating the channeling of retail savings into productive capital allocations, such as investment funds. The combination is expected to generate significant operational efficiencies and cost synergies across platforms and services, enable a streamlining of investment capacity, and foster greater innovation for clients, with even faster market access. Overall, both clients and EU equity markets are expected to benefit significantly from the strengthened structure of such a combined platform,” Deutsche Börse noted in its statement.

It added: “Deutsche Börse Group is a firm advocate that a thriving fund sector is essential to the EU’s status as a globally relevant financial hub. The proposed transaction would align with Deutsche Börse’s strategy and further underscore its continued commitment and efforts to strengthen European capital markets and their global competitiveness, as envisioned in the Savings and Investments Union (SIU).”

Next Steps

Both companies reiterated that the announcement of any binding offer related to the proposal is subject to the fulfillment—or waiver—of a number of customary conditions, including a satisfactory due diligence review of Allfunds, the finalization of definitive transaction documents, and approval from the boards of Deutsche Börse and Allfunds.

“There can be no certainty regarding the conclusion of any future agreement with Deutsche Börse or any other party in relation to a potential transaction, nor regarding the terms of any possible transaction (if agreed),” Allfunds stated.

Allfunds began trading on Euronext Amsterdam in April 2021, after placing nearly 30% of its capital at a price of €11.50 per share. On its first trading day, the stock rose by 20%.

The Fed in the Spotlight: Will There Be an Imminent Cut?

  |   By  |  0 Comentarios

After weeks of fragmentation within the FOMC, the market now assigns an 80% probability to a 25-basis-point cut at the December 10 meeting. The shift in expectations accelerated after rumors emerged positioning Kevin Hassett—current Director of the NEC—as the leading candidate to chair the Federal Reserve.

Powell appears to have gained internal leeway to move forward with a “risk management” decision given the slowdown in consumption, the risk posed by the “K-shaped” economy, weakness in some manufacturing indicators, and the absence of significant inflationary pressures.

Mixed Macro, but With a Dovish Tone


Although the industrial recovery has yet to take hold, the set of data released this week supports an accommodative decision:

Regional Surveys:

  • Philadelphia: Overall index improves (from -12.8 to -1.7) despite a decline in new orders.

  • Dallas: Improvement in orders, but overall index deteriorates (from -5 to -10.4).

  • Richmond: Sharp decline (from -4 to -15).

Flash PMI:

  • United States: Rebound to 54.8, driven by services.

  • Eurozone/Germany: Manufacturing remains weak and the Ifo index declines (from 91.6 to 90.6), confirming stagnation.

Retail Sales: +0.2% (vs. +0.4% expected).
Core PPI: Below consensus.
Conference Board: Confidence stabilizes but remains on a downward trend. The reading for the labor market is still…

This environment reduces the immediate inflationary risk but increases that of a two-speed or “K-shaped” economy, in which the slowdown hits middle- and low-income consumption, while corporate investment—especially in AI—remains strong.

In Europe, the Ifo index (which falls from 91.6 to 90.6) also comes in below expectations and confirms the readings from the ZEW index a couple of weeks ago and the preliminary PMIs: growth will remain stagnant. The United States is performing better than Europe.

Employment: Risks Contained, but Not Null


The Beige Book reflects an economy with stable activity, but less momentum in sales and hiring. Labor demand is easing, but there are still no signs of pressure for mass layoffs.

This aligns with a view of a benign slowdown, sufficient to justify a cut, but without the panic associated with a severe short-term contraction.

Toward December: Mixed Signal Risks


Although the general expectation points to a cut in December, the tone of communication will be key to the market’s reaction. If Powell suggests that this is the last move of the cycle, or if the curve must adjust its expectations to a less accommodative monetary policy outlook for 2026, several side effects could arise:

  • High-multiple assets (tech, crypto, growth) could correct or move sideways if the market interprets the cut as the end of the road.

  • The dollar would be supported, hurting sensitive assets like gold, emerging markets, or bitcoin.

  • High-yield corporate credit, with spreads still tight, could suffer due to expectations of higher long-term rates.

  • The Taylor Rule indicates that fed funds are at reasonable levels; if a higher neutral rate is mentioned due to productivity or asset price bubbles, the market would interpret this as more hawkish than expected.

More Fuel for 2026?


The December cut and “pause” could be anticipated as a precaution in light of uncertainties in the labor market and a potential overheating in 2026, when the OBBA fiscal plan comes into full effect (contributing between 0.3% and 0.4% to GDP growth).

Added to this is the possibility of a targeted fiscal injection for low- and middle-income households, aimed at revitalizing consumption. While politically useful, this approach would further accentuate the divergence between consumption and savings across income groups, exacerbating the structure of the “K-shaped” economy.

AI, Investment, and Imbalances: The Boom That Divides


Corporate investment in AI continues to expand, supporting a narrative similar to that of 1995–1999. The process is evident, but still far from its peak.

However, the boom in productivity (and income) has not been distributed evenly. The top 10% of the population by income already accounts for more than 50% of total spending in the United States, which increases inequality in access to consumption and investment. This structural imbalance puts pressure on the Fed to continue cutting rates, even if inflation remains contained or surprises to the downside.

Valuations, Liquidity, and Volatility: Beware of Overheating


The combination of expansionary fiscal policy, tech-driven narrative, and expectations of rate cuts is pushing valuations to levels that warrant close monitoring. Despite comparisons to the dotcom bubble, the current environment includes:

  • Greater accounting transparency.

  • More profitable business models.

  • Lower operational and financial leverage.

  • High investment levels relative to cash flow generation, but still far from the excesses seen in the 1999–2000 TMT space.

Nonetheless, conditions can change rapidly. If the Fed is forced to reverse course in 2026, assets with more demanding multiples would be the most vulnerable.

The parallel with the 1995–1999 period remains valid: a structurally upward trend, but with greater volatility. In this context, taking strategic protection remains a reasonable decision, without giving up the underlying positive bias.

Conclusion


Everything points to a cut in December, driven more by a policy of prevention than reaction. But what matters most will not be the move itself, but how Powell communicates it.

Investors will need to balance three key axes:

  • AI narrative + expansionary fiscal policy = structural support.

  • Risks of uneven slowdown + reactive monetary policy.

  • Threat of overheating in 2026 = risk of reversal.

At this point in the cycle, the prudent course is to continue participating in the trend, but with discipline in risk exposure, close monitoring of consumption, and attention to signals of monetary reversal.

The Ten Months in Which Julius Baer Became “Stronger and Simpler” and Focused on the Future

  |   By  |  0 Comentarios

Photo courtesy

In the First Ten Months of the Year, Julius Baer Focused Its Business Development on Strengthening the Group’s Presence Through New Local Appointments and Office Openings, While Reducing the Entity’s Risk and Part of the Loan Portfolio Positions. “Today, Julius Baer is a stronger, simpler entity fully focused on the future,” states Stefan Bollinger, CEO of Julius Baer.

The firm’s assessment of these three levers is very positive, and it believes that all of this has contributed to improving its results. “In the past ten months, we have significantly reduced the risk of our business while improving operational leverage, attracting strong new net inflows, and further strengthening our capital position. These results demonstrate the strength of our wealth management proposition and the trust our clients place in us,” said Stefan Bollinger, CEO of Julius Baer.

Looking to the Future: Abu Dhabi

Throughout the year, the entity has continued to advance the strengthening of the Group’s presence through new appointments, particularly in its local market, Switzerland. As explained, one of the Group’s main strategic priorities is to reinforce its position in the country to capitalize on the still-untapped growth potential in Julius Baer’s domestic market. Accordingly, as recently announced, Marc Blunier and Alain Krüger will assume responsibility as co-heads starting January 1, 2026. “We are also pleased to welcome Victoria McLean to Julius Baer and to our Executive Board. With the appointment of the new Chief Compliance Officer, we will complete the configuration of our new risk organization,” notes Bollinger.

At the same time, the Group is consolidating its presence in the high-growth markets of the Middle East and Asia, as well as in key Western European markets. In fact, it has received preliminary regulatory approval to open a new advisory office in ADGM, the international financial center in Abu Dhabi, which will complement its more than two-decade presence in Dubai’s DIFC. As explained, the new legal entity, Julius Baer (Abu Dhabi) Ltd., will serve ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWI), family offices, and entrepreneurs seeking tailored wealth management services. The office is expected to open in December 2025 and will be led by Amir Iskander, who joins as Chief Executive Officer of the entity.

“The Middle East is one of the most important growth markets for Julius Baer and plays a fundamental role in our global strategy. Two decades ago, we saw the potential of the region and built a strong local presence that allowed us to grow alongside our clients. Therefore, our expansion in Abu Dhabi is not just another milestone but a reaffirmation of our long-term commitment to this dynamic region and to serving our clients,” commented Bollinger.

It is worth noting that Julius Baer has been present in the Middle East since 2004, with offices in Dubai and Manama, complemented by coverage from traditional centers like Switzerland and the United Kingdom. Regarding the expansion, Rahul Malhotra, Regional Head of Emerging Markets at Julius Baer, added: “Abu Dhabi is becoming one of the world’s most ambitious wealth hubs, where the tradition of family businesses meets a new generation of entrepreneurs. Establishing ourselves in ADGM is the natural next step in Julius Baer’s growth journey in the UAE. We are proud to have Amir and his experienced team lead our presence in the capital. Their deep local relationships and market knowledge of Abu Dhabi will play a key role in strengthening our long-standing presence in the country and bringing us even closer to our clients.”

This new project adds to the fact that last month, the entity received the necessary regulatory approvals to open a dedicated presence of Bank Julius Baer Europe Ltd. (Julius Baer Europe) in Lisbon, Portugal, in the fourth quarter of 2025, following the opening of the new office in Milan, Italy, earlier this year.

Reflected in Its Results

In terms of results, the firm highlights that assets under management reached a record figure of 520 billion Swiss francs as of October 31, 2025 (644.576 billion dollars), surpassing the half-trillion threshold for the first time in the Group’s history, “thanks to solid new net inflows of 11.7 billion Swiss francs so far this year, despite continued risk reduction, and rising stock markets that more than offset the impact of a significantly stronger Swiss franc,” they explain.

“Julius Baer is delivering improved results, with record assets under management, better operational leverage, and a strengthened capital position, and is putting an end to legacy credit issues,” the entity comments.

For Bollinger, one key aspect is that the firm has completed its credit review and has decided to reduce a portion of the loan portfolio positions that are not aligned with its redefined strategy or revised risk appetite framework. These positions are mainly found in the income-generating residential and commercial real estate portfolio and amount to 700 million Swiss francs.

“The completion of the credit review in this transitional year 2025 is a major milestone in resolving the legacy credit issues. With our clear strategic focus, our revised risk appetite framework, and a strengthened risk function and processes overall, we are now fully aligned around our core wealth management proposition,” emphasizes the CEO of Julius Baer.

His view of the institution’s situation is clear: “The Group’s balance sheet remains highly liquid, and its capital position is solid, with the CET capital ratio strengthening to 16.3%, well above the minimum requirements.”

Why a 30% Correction Is Something Usual for Bitcoin

  |   By  |  0 Comentarios

Canva

Bitcoin Fell Last Week to a Low of $80,500, a Level Not Seen Since April. According to experts, Bitcoin’s behavior has sent an early signal to the market that it is taking a breather, with a drop of approximately 33% (as of the close on November 22) from its October high, following a wave of $2.2 billion in liquidations.

“Although the recent correction has unsettled some investors, volatility of this magnitude is not unusual. Bitcoin has suffered several drops greater than 30% in recent years. The latest was between January and April, when it fell from $109,000 to $74,500 before rebounding 70% to the current all-time high of $126,300, although at that time the decline was more gradual than the ‘sharper correction’ we are seeing now,” explains Simon Peters, analyst at eToro.

In Peters’ opinion, despite these corrections, the price maintains a long-term upward trend, forming higher highs and higher lows. “Right now, we are in a 30% drawdown from the all-time high, so if recent history were to repeat itself, it’s possible that we are already at the bottom of this correction. On-chain indicators also show that large wallets (or whales) have started buying back,” he argues.

For Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research Analyst at Julius Baer, the fundamentals of Bitcoin remain intact, as the long-term potential of a supply shortage continues, despite the short-term outflows from spot wrappers. “Risks from leveraged Digital Asset Treasuries persist, but the true drivers of the market are still not crypto-specific. Altcoins continue to be pure crypto beta,” he notes.

Tech Stocks, Data, and the Fed

In Villegas’ view, crypto market sentiment is depressed, reflecting an uncertain macroeconomic environment and a wave of risk aversion in equities despite strong results from tech companies. “The reality is that this correction is driven exclusively by macroeconomic factors and a wave of risk aversion in the stock markets. From a bottom-up perspective, context matters, and although spot Bitcoin vehicles have recorded short-term outflows, the long-term potential of a supply shortage remains intact. Bitcoin’s fundamentals are not that weak; demand exists, especially when we add ETFs to the companies holding cryptoassets in their treasuries, to the extent that, overall, they have far outpaced the supply growth rate since the beginning of the year. Flows into Ethereum and Solana ETFs have remained positive since the start of the year,” says the Julius Baer expert.

In addition, part of the experts’ interpretation is that this correction and subsequent rebound is related to new expectations of Fed rate cuts and the lack of data during the U.S. government shutdown. “On the macro front, the odds of a rate cut in December have increased since last week, to 71% according to CME FedWatch, after the president of the New York Federal Reserve, John Williams, stated on Friday that he expects the central bank to lower rates because the weakness in the labor market poses a greater threat than inflation. This has fueled a rebound in Bitcoin from its lows, and the crypto asset is trading this morning around $86,000,” adds the eToro expert.

Relevant U.S. data is expected this week, so favorable figures could sustain the small rebound currently seen in the crypto markets. “The delay in rate cuts by the Fed and the temporary liquidity outflow have affected risk assets. The short-term correlation between global liquidity and the price of Bitcoin is well documented,” says his colleague Lale Akoner, Global Market Analyst at eToro.

A sign of this moment of “pause” that has marked the market with this adjustment is that spot Bitcoin ETFs have also experienced a halt in inflows, while some Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT) bonds are being rebalanced and the supply of stablecoins is decreasing.

In conclusion, eToro experts believe all this indicates a cooling of the market after months of intense activity. “We remain cautious in the short term but confident in the long-term fundamentals,” they conclude in a call for calm.

Federal Reserve Minutes That Temper Enthusiasm

  |   By  |  0 Comentarios

Federal Reserve minutes temper enthusiasm

The publication of the Fed minutes has led the market to drastically lower the probability of a 25-basis-point cut in December, from around 75% at the beginning of the month to just 37%. The minutes confirmed the lack of consensus that had already been sensed when, in September, only 10 of the 19 FOMC members supported cuts in both October and December.

The underlying bias remains “dovish,” and there is agreement that more cuts will come later, but many members prefer not to act in the final meeting of 2025. If they don’t cut now, it is likely they will do so on January 28; what is relevant is that the market has stopped seeing a “guaranteed rate-cut cycle,” and that nuance has weighed on risk assets.

Although there was discussion of financial conditions, private credit, and valuations (“some participants commented on stretched valuations in financial markets”), the central message was a rise in concern about a possible inflation rebound—more explicit than in recent public statements.

Schmid Versus Waller: Two Interpretations of the Same Cycle
In this context, the statements by Schmid, president of the Kansas Fed and the only vote against the October cut, stand out. In his view, inflation remains a broad phenomenon, persistently above 2%, while growth remains reasonable and the labor market is, overall, balanced.

This view contrasts with that of Christopher Waller, one of the most “dovish” members, who is more concerned about the risk of an economic slowdown. The debate between them encapsulates the current discussion well: is it more important to finish bringing inflation under control or to avoid excessive deterioration in employment and credit? The answer will shape the pace of cuts in 2025–2026.

A Labor Market That Doesn’t Settle the Debate
The September employment report does not settle the debate either. The U.S. economy created 119,000 jobs, above expectations, with gains concentrated in healthcare, food and beverages, and social assistance.

On the other hand, revisions to July and August subtracted 33,000 jobs, and the three-month moving average rose from 29,000 to 62,000 new payrolls, within the range that the Dallas Fed considers consistent with a stable unemployment rate. Even so, the more pessimistic analysts will rely on the monthly upside surprise to justify a less generous Fed and a slightly more strained long end of the yield curve.

The labor force participation rate rose from 62.3% to 62.4%, and the unemployment rate ticked up from 4.3% to 4.44%, very much in line with the Chicago Fed’s real-time employment model. The reasonable reading is that labor demand has increased, in a context of immigration restrictions and the gradual exit of the baby boomers, while the labor supply remains relatively scarce. This point raises some doubts about the balance between labor demand and supply.

Inflation, Productivity, and the Fed’s Room for Maneuver
If this diagnosis is correct, the possibility of a positive surprise on inflation in 2026 gains weight. The rising cost of certain goods could also affect spending on services (“crowding out”), the moderation in housing costs—the main component of the CPI—would continue, and the productivity gains associated with digitalization and AI are, by definition, disinflationary.

In that scenario, the Fed could continue cutting rates with somewhat more confidence, unlike in recent quarters, when each inflation reading reinforced caution. It is worth remembering that the Fed’s year-end unemployment target is 4.4%, and we are already slightly above that. This provides some room to prioritize anchoring inflation expectations without completely stifling activity.

Nvidia and the Verdict on the “AI Bubble”


Despite the relevance of the minutes and the labor market after the shutdown, investors’ attention was focused on Nvidia’s earnings, which became a referendum on the sustainability of the investment boom in artificial intelligence.

Jensen Huang, the company’s CEO, was clear from the start: “Demand for AI infrastructure continues to exceed our expectations,” dismissing the idea of an imminent slowdown in the investment cycle. Nvidia claims to have visibility on around $500 billion in potential revenue from its Blackwell and Rubin platforms through the end of 2026—a figure presented more as demand commitments than secured sales, but whose scale and time horizon remain highly significant.

Revenue from H10 GPUs for China is around $50 million and currently marginal. Any easing of trade restrictions between the United States and China could, therefore, generate a significant additional boost on a margin base close to 70%.

Circularity, Software Pricing, and GPU Lifespan


At the same time, news of the joint investment by Microsoft and Nvidia in Anthropic or the $100 billion program by Brookfield—also involving Nvidia and KIA—fuels the narrative about risks of “circularity” in the AI ecosystem: the same actors that sell hardware participate in financing clients and projects.

However, other developments point in the opposite direction. Alphabet has raised prices for Gemini 3 Pro by around 20% compared to the previous version, disproving the idea that AI software is being “commoditized.” The Ramp AI Index also indicates that nearly half of U.S. companies already have a paid subscription to AI tools, suggesting a growing base of recurring revenue.

On another note, a recent Bernstein report challenges Michael Burry’s thesis on GPU lifespan: the evidence points to depreciation horizons closer to six years than two. Nvidia insists that its software and parallel computing platform extend the economic life of its chips. If data centers extract more years of use from each hardware generation, ROIC improves and the narrative of “irrational capex” without return is weakened.

Nvidia as Architect of AI Infrastructure
The quarterly figures also reflect a qualitative shift: data center revenue is up 66%, and networking revenue is up 162%, reinforcing the perception of Nvidia not only as a GPU manufacturer but as a full architect of AI data centers (computing, networking, and software), capturing an increasing share of the value stack.

This result reduces the risk of a short-term “earnings cliff” and strengthens the thesis of an AI “supercycle,” though it does not eliminate all doubts. It is clear that Huang will never openly acknowledge a capex bubble, but it is also true that in two or three years, investors will demand tangible cash flows to justify the investments announced for 2026–2028. We are not yet at that point of maximum scrutiny.

Implications for Investors: Rates, AI, and the S&P 500 Over 12 Months


The recent declines seem to respond to technical and sentiment-driven factors. The market may continue to correct, but it already shows signs of being oversold, with a mood dominated by caution and even fear. It does not seem likely that AI investment will collapse in the next 12 months; the project pipeline remains substantial, and the debate is more about the pace of growth than its continuation.

With a Fed still in a rate-cutting phase, a money supply with room for expansion (especially if asset purchase programs are reactivated), and a positive fiscal impulse heading into 2026, the probability of a recession is not high, and it is feasible that, as our model indicates, corporate earnings will post growth above their historical average. In this context, an S&P 500 in the range of 7,100 – 7,700 points over 12 months is perfectly plausible, even considering some degree of multiple compression.

For investors, the key issue is not so much anticipating the next headline—a slightly more “hawkish” tone from the Fed or a renewed debate about an AI bubble—as it is seizing volatility to strengthen positions in quality assets with the ability to generate sustainable earnings in an environment of moderately lower interest rates and rising productivity driven by AI itself.

Central Scenario and Asset Allocation: Four Views to Warm Up the Engines

  |   By  |  0 Comentarios

Canva

As 2026 approaches, international asset managers and investment firms are outlining the main factors they believe will shape the year ahead and their preferred asset allocation strategies. Although each has a distinct perspective, they agree that as 2026 unfolds, uncertainty stemming from changes in central bank policy, geopolitical tensions, and structural shifts will define the macroeconomic landscape.

Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, Co-Chief Investment Officer of Multi-Asset Solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, says these forces are creating opportunities across public and private markets—from disruptions to secular growth themes and alternative sources of return. “We believe investors need a truly diversified, multi-asset approach that combines active cross-asset positioning, granular security selection, disciplined risk management, and explicit tail-risk hedging, in order to protect capital while also opening new avenues for growth,” she states.

Mark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, frames the question for 2026 as whether the powerful forces of AI, fiscal stimulus, and monetary policy easing can push global markets beyond the gravitational pull of debt, demographics, and deglobalization toward a new growth era. “Navigating these structural changes requires investors to adapt their strategies, focusing on sectors and themes where capital is flowing and transformation is underway,” Haefele notes.

So, what is the central scenario for these and other global asset managers in the coming year? And, more importantly, what asset allocation do they see as best suited to navigate that scenario? Let’s look at each one:

Robeco: A Return to 2017

Robeco foresees a cyclical, global, and synchronized rebound that would mirror the conditions of 2017, driven by the convergence of several factors: easing trade tensions, a recovery in the manufacturing cycle, and the delayed effects of monetary easing.

A key theme for the year will be central banks, which will have to navigate a “maze” as they seek balance between political pressures and an overheated economy. “Despite persistent uncertainty, the global economy is ready to play in unison—even if just a short piece,” they comment.

In Robeco’s base case, U.S. real GDP is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2026, supported by AI-driven productivity gains and fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. However, they note that the U.S. economy remains divided: high-income consumption will remain strong, while lower-income households will feel pressure from rising tariffs and slowing job growth.

Europe’s growth engine is said to be “revving up,” with Germany showing accelerating activity thanks to fiscal stimulus. “The eurozone is expected to grow by 1.6%, supported by fiscal expansion and pent-up consumer demand. China, while still battling deflationary pressures, may see a domestic recovery in the second half of 2026 as real estate deleveraging ends,” they add.

Robeco sees continued upside for equities, especially in interest-rate-sensitive sectors and markets outside the U.S. While U.S. valuations remain high, earnings—particularly in tech—will be key. “Eurozone equities look attractive based on valuation and macro factors, and emerging markets could benefit from a weaker dollar and improved trade flows,” they state. In fixed income, Robeco favors shorter durations due to expectations of higher long-term yields.

On sustainability, Rachel Whittaker, Head of Sustainable Alpha Research at Robeco, adds: “Sustainable investing isn’t disappearing—it’s realigning. As the tempo changes, we’re holding the note in our clients’ interest while adapting to new realities. Staying focused on our long-term investment convictions reinforces the relevance and resilience of sustainable investing, as it’s grounded in science and enduring principles—not trends.”

JSS SAM: A Global Resilience Scenario

For Claudio Wewel, currency strategist at J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable AM, the keyword for 2026 is resilience. “The U.S. economy continues to show resilience, with AI investment increasingly contributing to GDP growth. Purchasing managers’ indices reflect solid activity in both manufacturing and services. Consumer confidence remains stable and largely unchanged since September. However, there are growing signs that the economy’s overall state has become more fragile,” Wewel argues.

In the eurozone, he expects improvement over time. “We are more optimistic for next year, when fiscal spending in Germany is expected to positively impact growth. So far, businesses haven’t expanded production capacity in anticipation of higher demand. Investment spending and industrial orders remain low,” he adds.

Market developments led portfolios to show slight equity overweights during the month, a position they’ve modestly increased in selected areas. “We’ve considered macroeconomic improvement, looser monetary policy, and imminent fiscal stimulus. In response to falling interest rates, we’ve reduced fixed income allocations,” Wewel explains.

They remain regionally neutral in equities and maintain a largely balanced stance across investment-grade bonds, high yield, and emerging markets. “We’re holding our gold position, though we’ve taken advantage of the sharp price increase to realize part of the accumulated gains,” he concludes.

GSAM: Public and Private Markets

Goldman Sachs Asset Management believes that AI will continue to fuel investor optimism, though it recommends a diversified multi-asset strategy based on active management and granular security selection to navigate a complex year geopolitically, monetarily, commercially, and fiscally.

In their report “Seeking Catalysts Amid Complexity,” they foresee increased dispersion in equity markets, with a favorable trend toward global equity diversification and a mix of fundamental and quantitative strategies. In fixed income, they focus on duration diversification and strategic curve positioning to navigate mixed macro signals. “Income opportunities may arise from securitized credit, high yield, and emerging markets,” they note.

In private markets, they expect 2026 to be a more constructive environment for new deals and exits, possibly leading to greater dispersion in private equity manager returns. “Private credit continues to outperform public markets, with historically lower default rates than syndicated loans. Rigorous risk assessment is essential, and opportunities are emerging in infrastructure driven by AI and the energy transition,” they assert.

UBS GWM: Will the Law of Gravity Break?

In its Year Ahead 2026 report, the UBS Global Wealth Management CIO notes that while political headlines will remain in the spotlight, history shows their impact on financial markets is often short-lived. Still, they identify several risks that could weigh on markets in the year ahead, including: disappointment in AI progress or adoption, a resurgence or persistence of inflation, a deeper phase of strategic rivalry between the U.S. and China, and renewed concerns over sovereign or private debt.

Barring these risks, UBS GWM sees AI-driven innovation as a key market driver in 2025, with the information technology sector now accounting for 28% of the MSCI AC World Index. “Strong capital expenditure trends and accelerating adoption are likely to drive further growth for AI-linked equities,” they point out.

They expect the economic backdrop in 2026 to broadly support equities, with growth accelerating in the second half of the year. Specific forecasts include: 1.7% growth in the U.S., supported by looser financial conditions and accommodative fiscal policy; 1.1% GDP growth in the eurozone; and approximately 5% growth in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region.

With these dynamics in mind, UBS GWM recommends increasing equity exposure and exploring opportunities in China. “Favorable economic conditions should support global equities, expected to rise around 15% by the end of 2026. Strong U.S. growth and supportive fiscal and monetary policy benefit tech, utilities, healthcare, and banking, with gains likely in the U.S., China, Japan, and Europe. China’s tech sector stands out globally, supported by strong liquidity, retail flows, and expected 37% earnings growth in 2026. Broader exposure to Asia, particularly India and Singapore, could offer additional diversification benefits, as could emerging markets,” the firm states.

Their second asset allocation focus is commodities. “Supply constraints, rising demand, geopolitical risks, and long-term trends such as the global energy transition should support commodities. Within this asset class, we see particular opportunities in copper, aluminum, and agricultural commodities, while gold serves as a valuable diversifier,” they argue.