Photo courtesySamantha Ricciardi, until now, CEO of Santander AM
New Changes at Santander. At the top of Santander AM, Samantha Ricciardi has announced her departure from the asset manager, according to an internal statement from the firm, “to pursue new professional opportunities abroad.” She had been the top executive of the asset manager since 2022, a position she assumed following the departure of Mariano Belinky. The firm will launch a process to decide her replacement.
According to her LinkedIn profile, Ricciardi worked at BlackRock for 11 years in various roles, the last of which was as Head of Strategy and Business Development for EMEA. She also spent seven years at Schroders, where she served as Head of the asset manager in Mexico. She began her professional career at Citi in the year 2000.
The bank has just completed the integration of its two asset managers, Santander Asset Management and Santander Private Banking Gestión, to form an entity with approximately 127 billion euros under management.
Meanwhile, Ana Hernández del Castillo will lead the alternatives area at Beyond Wealth. Hernández del Castillo comes from Crescenta, where she joined in January 2024 as Investment Manager. Previously, she held various roles at MdF and Banque Havilland.
The November ISM manufacturing index fell to 48.2 (from 48.7), marking its ninth consecutive month in contraction. The new orders sub-index remains below that of inventories, signaling further weakness ahead. The employment component also declined (from 46 to 44), reinforcing the narrative of a still-weak industrial sector.
On the other hand, the ADP employment report shows a reduction of 32,000 jobs, while the Challenger report reflected a year-over-year increase in layoffs of 23.5%, though well below October’s 175%. Even so, limited hiring and low turnover continue to characterize the labor market, with no signs of collapse.
Consumption: Dynamic on the Surface, Fragile at the Core
During Black Friday, consumers spent a record $11.8 billion online, with holiday spending projected to exceed one trillion dollars. However, the momentum was driven by aggressive promotions, value-seeking behavior, and the use of “buy now, pay later” schemes—pointing to defensive strategies by the average consumer. This same pattern was evident, for example, in Walmart’s quarterly results, which showed higher-income families switching brands or slightly adjusting purchase quality to cut spending.
The stability of consumption now depends on political stimulus, such as the possible $2,000 check that Trump could distribute, and the expectation of declining financing costs. The “K-shaped” economy is becoming more apparent: high-income households continue spending, while middle-income ones are forced to seek liquidity.
The Fed: Cut in Sight, but With a Hawkish Stamp
Given the lack of complete data due to the shutdown, the Fed will pay close attention to the Beige Book, which shows a nearly -20% gap between expanding and contracting districts, and a clear moderation in price indices.
Amid the absence of consensus within the Fed, a hawkish cut is shaping up for the December 10 meeting, with a cautious message aimed at containing expectations. This move could strengthen the dollar (DXY), which is threatening to break above its 200-day moving average. In that case, EURUSD would target the 1.14–1.12 range. While it is important to monitor the technical evolution of the exchange rate—which has briefly recovered its 50-day moving average—productivity gains, more evident in the U.S., are translating into increases in real incomes that should, in the short term, support U.S. asset prices and, consequently, international flows into its currency. The DXY dollar index (mostly reflecting the dollar’s crosses with the euro, Canadian dollar, and Japanese yen) is attempting to break above its 200-day moving average. If Powell ends up casting doubt on the integrity of the three cuts currently priced into the 2026 curve, a recovery of this reference level would boost the greenback’s exchange rate.
The Nasdaq Rebounds, but Sentiment Remains Mixed
The Nasdaq has recovered nearly 80% of the decline suffered in November, while the S&P 500 has corrected its overbought condition. However, investor sentiment remains cautious. The market has priced in the rate cut scenario, but is beginning to question the sustainability of the rally if data do not improve uniformly.
2026: When the Rest of the “K” Comes Into Play
U.S. macroeconomic data shows signs that justify rate cuts:
Stagnant private consumption: Real retail sales have been flat since December, and credit card delinquencies remain high, though stabilizing.
Weak housing: Residential investment has declined for two consecutive quarters, and over 60% of counties are seeing price drops (Zillow).
Soft labor market: So far, job growth is slowing and real income growth is below its historical pace.
But a shift on the horizon is beginning to take shape:
Tariff uncertainty is starting to fade, and Trump is closing off geopolitical stress points (Israel, Ukraine, China).
Tax exemptions from the OBBA plan will take effect in 2026.
AI-related productivity is showing results that are starting to extend beyond the technology and communications services sectors.
Financing costs have dropped substantially, with rates similar to 2018 levels, and the balance sheets of households and businesses remain healthy, leaving room for increased borrowing to boost investment and spending.
Credit Demand and Positive Releveraging
With a still-weak but stable labor market and a more optimistic view of the economic outlook, credit demand is beginning to pick up among both households and businesses. Leverage, measured against GDP and historical levels, remains low, creating room for positive releveraging.
In addition, leading employment indicators are showing signs of improvement:
The index from the American Staffing Association has risen for 10 consecutive weeks, suggesting a recovery in temporary employment demand.
Employment sub-indices from regional surveys indicate stabilization of manufacturing payrolls for 2026.
Capital expenditure intentions are rebounding after the tariff-driven slowdown.
Fiscal Risk and Shift in Republican Strategy
With debt levels at 120% of GDP, the fiscal lever is running out. Starting in the second half of 2026, fiscal stimulus could turn negative, even though the OBBA plan may still contribute 0.4% to GDP.
This alters the political approach: Trump and the Republicans will aim to sustain consumption without additional public spending. This implies reducing tariffs on consumer goods, reinstating direct transfers (such as the $2,000 check), and — critically — ensuring low interest rates to reduce financing costs.
Starting in May 2026, Trump is expected to take control of the Fed, which would reinforce this growth strategy through the cost of money rather than public spending.
Conclusion: A Reactive Fed, a Selective Market
The current environment gives the Fed room to continue cutting, but with measured communication. The market has priced in the cuts but needs evidence that the lower part of the “K” is picking up in order to sustain the rally.
The greatest risk is no longer inflation or recession, but rather a combination of uneven growth, instrumentalized monetary policy, and excessive optimism in tech segments that have yet to deliver clear profitability.
It makes sense, for now, to maintain positions in sectors most linked to the AI boom, but also to begin balancing with others that may benefit from the abandonment of the “K” theory.
In 2025, 196 self-made billionaires drove global wealth to a record high of $15.8 trillion, a 13% increase over 12 months and the second-largest annual gain after 2021. According to the latest UBS report, titled Billionaire Ambitions Report 2025, we are witnessing a new wave of billionaires, fueled by business innovation and a rise in inheritances.
The report highlights that these new billionaires include both entrepreneurs successfully building businesses in today’s uncertain environment and heirs participating in a multi-year, accelerated wealth transfer. In 2025, the second-highest number of self-made individuals in the history of the report became billionaires.
“Our report shows how the rise of a new generation of wealth creators and heirs is transforming the global landscape. As families become more international and the great wealth transfer accelerates, the focus is shifting from simply preserving wealth to empowering the next generation to succeed independently and responsibly. This is influencing not only succession planning, but also philanthropic priorities and long-term investment decisions,” notes Benjamin Cavalli, Head of Strategic Clients and Global Family and Institutional Wealth Connectivity at UBS Global Wealth Management and Co-Head of EMEA One UBS.
In Cavalli’s view, we are seeing a billionaire community that is more diverse, mobile, and forward-looking than ever before. “The combination of entrepreneurial drive and the largest intergenerational wealth transfer in history is creating new opportunities and challenges for both families and wealth managers,” he adds.
Regarding investment priorities, despite market volatility in 2025, North America remains the top investment destination (63%), followed by Western Europe (40%) and Greater China (34%). Some 42% of billionaires plan to increase their exposure to emerging market equities, while more than four in ten (43%) are considering increasing their exposure in developed markets.
Self-Made Billionaires
According to the report’s data, in 2025, these 196 self-made billionaires added $386.5 billion to global wealth, pushing total wealth to a record $15.8 trillion. This marks the second-largest annual increase recorded in the history of the report. As a result, the number of billionaires rose by 8.8%, from 2,682 to nearly 3,000.
The report explains that, unlike the boom driven by asset revaluation after the pandemic in 2021, “this growth was marked by strong business dynamics and intense company creation.” From marketing software and genetics to liquefied natural gas and infrastructure, these innovators are reshaping large-scale demand, with billionaires from the United States and Asia-Pacific leading the way.
While billionaires investing in the tech sector saw their wealth grow by 23.8%, consumer and retail slowed to 5.3%, as the European luxury industry lost momentum to Chinese brands. Despite this, the consumer and retail sector remains the largest, totaling $3.1 trillion.
Industrial wealth experienced the fastest growth, rising 27.1% to reach $1.7 trillion, with more than a quarter coming from new billionaires. Meanwhile, wealth originating from the financial services sector increased by 17% to $2.3 trillion, driven by strong markets and a rebound in cryptocurrencies. Self-made billionaires now represent 80% of total wealth.
Billionaires by Inheritance
When it comes to wealth transfer, it is clear that the pace is accelerating. Looking ahead, billionaires are expected to transfer around $6.9 trillion globally by 2040, with at least $5.9 trillion going to their children.
Regarding this year’s developments, the report reveals that 91 individuals (64 men and 27 women) became billionaires through inheritance, receiving a combined $297.8 billion—more than one-third above the $218.9 billion in 2024. Additionally, according to calculations, at least $5.9 trillion will be inherited by the children of billionaires over the next 15 years.
Globally, inheritances have contributed to a rise in the number of multigenerational billionaires, now totaling nearly 860 and managing a combined $4.7 trillion in wealth, compared to 805 who controlled $4.2 trillion in 2024. Notably, the average wealth of women continued to rise in 2025, increasing by 8.4% to $5.2 billion—more than double the growth rate of men, which was 3.2%, reaching $5.4 billion.
“Although the transfer of wealth will likely be concentrated in a limited number of markets, high levels of migration could shift this landscape. Most wealth transfers will take place in the U.S. and in certain markets, but 36% of surveyed billionaires report having moved at least once, while another 9% are considering it,” the report notes.
Moreover, billionaires expect their children to succeed independently despite the influence of inheritance: 82% of surveyed billionaires with children want them to follow their own path and say they aspire to instill the skills and values necessary to thrive on their own, rather than relying solely on inherited wealth.
“In an era in which entrepreneurs often appoint professional managers or sell their businesses instead of passing them down to the next generation, 43% still hope their children will continue and grow the family business, brand, or assets,” the report adds.
The QR Code Is Present in Our Daily Lives, Increasingly Since the Pandemic. QR Stands for “Quick Response,” But at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, They Have Aimed to Give It a New Meaning: Quant Redefined. With That Label, They Recently Presented in Madrid Their Range of Active ETFs, the CT QR Series, in UCITS Format.
Among them, the CT QR Series US Equity Active UCITS ETF stands out, the UCITS version of their most emblematic active ETF, the Columbia Research Enhanced Core ETF (ticker RECS), which has a ten-year track record, manages over $4 billion in assets under management, and has outperformed the Russell 1000 index by 2% annually since its launch. Both this product and the CT QR Series European Equity Active UCITS ETF, which offers exposure to European equities, are already listed and trading on Deutsche Boerse; the firm plans to soon list two more active ETFs in the range—one offering access to emerging market equities and another to global equities with a growth bias.
How Does It Differ from Other Active ETFs?
Christine Cantrell, Head of Active ETF Distribution for EMEA at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, outlined four main features that differentiate these vehicles from comparable active ETFs. “We believe the combination of quantitative and fundamental analysis can add value,” she emphasized several times during her presentation.
The first differentiating point relates to risk: while other asset managers tend to constrain tracking error around 1% for their active ETFs, those from Columbia Threadneedle present a tracking error between 2% and 4%. “We take more risk compared to the index, but as a result, the risk-adjusted returns are higher,” argued the expert. Supporting this is the fact that the QR Series portfolios rank in the first quartile of their Morningstar category over five years, according to the information ratio.
The second difference has to do with fees: they are similar to the competition (between 20 and 30 basis points), but the QR Series can generate higher returns thanks to the team’s strong conviction in the stock selection within each strategy.
Third is experience: not only because RECS, the original active ETF, has a strong track record, but also because the portfolio manager in charge of the strategy, Chris Lo, has been with the company for 27 years and has a solid academic background. Moreover, the quantitative model used as part of the construction process for these active ETFs has been operating since 2001.
The final difference highlighted by the expert is the UCITS label, which will allow the company to bring its strategies closer to European investors and those in other jurisdictions who want to invest under this framework.
The Three Rs
It’s important to clarify that these ETFs are transparent: the data is publicly available, and the asset manager has emphasized that the entire analysis process is rules-based, “because that’s what fund selectors are looking for: they want to understand what the strategy is,” states Christine Cantrell.
Additionally, the analysis process is designed to be all-weather, meaning it can endure all market conditions. For this reason, the team has consciously chosen not to include a layer of derivatives, for example, as “the behavior could be very different from what people expect—we prefer to maintain a very consistent process,” explains the expert.
Cantrell describes the investment strategy as based on the Three Rs: Research, Rank, and Recalibrate.
In the research phase, she explains that the quantitative model is proprietary and allows for customization so that the strategy generally follows the index, but under the microscope, it becomes clear that the portfolio construction is different (for this explanation, we’ll focus on the active ETF on the U.S. stock market, which uses the Russell 1000 as a reference). The premise is to compare apples to apples—that is, the quantitative model analyzes all index components, assigns a score from 1 to 5 to each, with 1 being the highest and 5 the lowest, and neutralizes style biases.
Fundamental analysis is incorporated to gain additional insights that help determine the level of conviction the team has in each index stock: “Many clients like quantitative analysis because it’s very objective. But a fundamental analyst can go and talk to the company’s management team. They’re the ones having deep conversations with the CEO and other senior executives and who understand the strategic outlook. That’s something a quantitative model can’t capture,” reflects Cantrell.
This brings us to the third step, ranking: based on the combined fundamental and quantitative analysis, the team filters the index to retain only the top 35% of stocks it believes will perform best within each sector represented in the index—a best-in-class approach, as the expert describes it. Once this top 35% of companies is selected, the exposure is equally weighted so each has the same weight. As a result, the ETF on the U.S. stock market has a beta of 0.9 with an active share between 30% and 40%.
The Weight of What’s Missing
Within this process, Cantrell emphasizes the weight of convictions: “Within our quantitative analysis, we have no preferences by sector or country. We want to mimic the index at a macro level. But if we don’t like a company, we exclude it completely.” Here lies one of the ETF’s key differentiators: a look at the ten most underweighted stocks is revealing—for example, despite a 6.2% weighting in the index, Microsoft is not present in this strategy; the same applies to other large-cap stocks in the S&P 500, such as Amazon, Broadcom, or Tesla, which have respective weightings of 3.4%, 2.5%, or 2% in the index, but are assigned 0% in this Columbia Threadneedle vehicle.
Likewise, the top 10 holdings in the strategy also reflect the team’s high convictions: NVIDIA and Apple each have a 9.5% weighting (in the case of the latter, up to 3.5% more than in the S&P 500). Other stocks that are also overweighted compared to the index include J.P. Morgan and Visa. “Performance comes from idiosyncratic risk, which is purely risk arising from stock selection,” insists Cantrell.
The expert adds that if a market event occurs that changes the investment thesis, a stock can be removed from the strategy. “We review our analysis daily, ensure we’re dynamic, and pay special attention to downside risks,” she summarizes. Otherwise, the portfolio is rebalanced twice a year, which explains why the actual turnover rate is low—around 40% annually.
In summary, the expert concludes that one way to view this active ETF is as a strategy that uses a universe of 1,000 stocks to outperform 500 stocks, leveraging the high historical correlation between the Russell 1000 and the S&P 500. “The outcome of this active ETF is the result of the work of our quantitative team over the past 30 years,” she concludes.
The Goldman Sachs Group has signed an agreement to acquire Innovator Capital Management (Innovator), an ETF firm currently managing $28 billion in assets under management and specializing in income, targeted buffer, and growth strategies. According to the firm, the transaction will significantly expand Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s (Goldman Sachs AM) ETF range and future product roadmap, while strengthening its offering in one of the fastest-growing categories of active ETFs.
“Active ETFs are dynamic, transformative, and have been one of the fastest-growing segments in today’s public market investing landscape. With the acquisition of Innovator, Goldman Sachs will broaden access to modern, best-in-class investment products for investor portfolios. Innovator’s reputation for innovation and leadership in defined outcome solutions complements our mission to enhance the client experience with sophisticated strategies aimed at delivering specific, defined outcomes for investors,” said David Solomon, Chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs.
For Bruce Bond, CEO of Innovator, this transaction marks a key milestone for the business. “Goldman Sachs has a long history of identifying emerging trends and significant directional shifts within the asset management industry. We are excited to bring top-tier investment solutions to clients within the ETF space and to expand our business in this leading, high-growth, and strategically important category. These synergies, among many others, make Goldman Sachs an ideal partner for us,” said Bond.
Defined Outcome Strategies Global assets under management in active ETFs have reached $1.6 trillion, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 47% since 2020, as investors increasingly access public markets through the ETF wrapper.
According to the firm, defined outcome ETFs — which have grown at a CAGR of 66% since 2020 — are a key component of the fast-growing active ETF market, driven by the goal of offering innovative structured strategies in accessible formats. Based on their experience, investors are increasingly using defined outcome ETFs to incorporate a broad and customizable range of objectives into their portfolios that address their risk management and return needs.
Defined outcome ETFs use derivatives and options-based strategies aimed at delivering specific objectives, such as downside protection, enhanced returns, and predefined outcomes when held for the full outcome period, enabling investors to build and customize portfolios through the ETF’s tax-efficient wrapper.
The Transaction As of September 30, 2025, Goldman Sachs Asset Management and Innovator manage over 215 ETF strategies globally, representing more than $75 billion in total assets, placing Goldman Sachs AM among the top ten providers of active ETFs. According to the firm, the acquisition is part of Goldman Sachs AM’s broader strategy to grow its leadership in innovative and expanding investment categories, and to deliver compelling investment performance and service to clients. The firm offers sophisticated strategies to investors as an industry leader in direct indexing and separately managed accounts, as well as through access to alternative investment strategies via its evergreen G-Series funds and active ETFs.
Following the transaction, Bruce Bond, co-founder and CEO of Innovator; John Southard, co-founder and President; Graham Day, Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer (CIO); and Trevor Terrell, Senior Vice President and Head of Distribution, will join Goldman Sachs AM. Additionally, more than 60 Innovator employees are expected to join Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s Third-Party Wealth (TPW) and ETF teams. The business will be wholly owned by Goldman Sachs AM, and investment managers and service providers will remain unchanged.
The firm emphasizes that this acquisition strategically expands its more stable revenue base and reinforces its commitment to providing institutional and individual investors with comprehensive solutions. The transaction is expected to be valued at approximately $2 billion, payable in a combination of cash and stock, subject to the achievement of certain performance targets. The deal is anticipated to close in the second quarter of 2026, subject to regulatory approval and customary closing conditions.
Nomura Has Successfully Completed the Acquisition of Macquarie’s Exchange-Traded Asset Management Business in the U.S. and Europe. According to the company, the purchase price was 1.8 billion U.S. dollars, and the closing of the transaction incorporates approximately 166 billion U.S. dollars (as of October 31, 2025) in assets from retail and institutional clients across equity, fixed income, and multi-asset strategies, under Nomura’s global brand, Nomura Asset Management.
As announced in April 2025, Nomura will integrate its private markets business, Nomura Capital Management (NCM), and its high-yield business, Nomura Corporate Research and Asset Management (NCRAM), together with the acquired assets to form Nomura Asset Management International, which will be part of Nomura Asset Management.
“The successful closing of this transaction marks an important step toward our 2030 Management Vision by boosting our assets under management and diversifying and strengthening our platform,” said Kentaro Okuda, President and CEO of Nomura Group.
New CEO and Strategic Alliance
Headquartered in New York and Philadelphia, Shawn Lytle will be CEO of Nomura Asset Management International, and Robert Stark, President and Deputy CEO of Nomura Asset Management International. Lytle was formerly Head of the Americas for Macquarie Group, while Mr. Stark will continue in his current role as CEO of Nomura Capital Management and will report functionally to Yoshihiro Namura, Head of Nomura’s Investment Management Division, and Satoshi Kawamura, CEO and President of Nomura Holding America Inc., from a corporate perspective.
“The new combined business has a strong foundation, with a well-diversified platform across all major asset classes and client segments. We now have an exciting opportunity to strengthen the combined capabilities of the new business and grow the franchise globally,” said Shawn Lytle, CEO of Nomura Asset Management International.
In addition to completing the transaction, Macquarie and Nomura have formalized a strategic alliance for product distribution and joint development of investment strategies, as initially announced in April 2025. Under the agreement, Nomura will distribute certain private funds from Macquarie to high-net-worth clients and family offices in the U.S.
The alliance also establishes collaboration in developing innovative investment solutions for clients in the U.S. and Japan. “We have created a joint task force between Nomura and Macquarie, as part of this alliance, to explore additional opportunities aimed at generating value for clients through increased collaboration between the two organizations,” the company stated.
Key Statements
Following the announcement, Chris Willcox, Head of Nomura’s Investment Management Division and Head of Wholesale, stated: “We are delighted to have completed this acquisition ahead of schedule and to welcome our new colleagues from Macquarie Asset Management.”
Meanwhile, Yoshihiro Namura, Head of the Investment Management Division, added: “Our goal with this transaction is simple: to build a global platform with excellent capabilities and investment outcomes that help clients achieve what matters most to them. I believe the new leadership team, led by Shawn and Robert, is in an ideal position to realize our ambitions.”
Although the asset management industry is undergoing a clear process of transformation and consolidation—leading to fewer players in the market—the reality is that business opportunities remain strong. According to estimates from the latest report by Morgan Stanley and Oliver Wyman, global household financial wealth is on track to reach 393 trillion U.S. dollars by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.5%. In other words, individuals will continue to need investment products.
In fact, global household financial wealth reached 301 trillion U.S. dollars in 2024, marking a 7% increase in 2023 and an 8% rise in 2024. Its growth was resilient across all regions, with the Americas and the Middle East & Africa showing the largest gains, excluding currency effects. However, when adjusted for currency, real growth in U.S. dollars was moderate across all regions, with negative growth in Latin America and Japan.
Looking ahead, the report projects that global financial wealth will grow at an annual rate of 5.5% through 2029, returning to a level closer to the 6% annual rate observed between 2019 and 2023. In absolute terms, wealth growth remains heavily concentrated in North America and APAC. Europe’s wealth could benefit from supportive policies and increased household investment allocation in the future. The Middle East and Africa, as well as Latin America, show steady growth. Overall, growth rates are lower than in previous reports due to the inclusion of life insurance, pensions, and the wealth bracket below 0.3 million dollars.
The analysis also shows that, in terms of onshore investable financial wealth—defined as financial wealth held onshore excluding assets in insurance policies and pensions—ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWIs) and high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) will continue to drive wealth creation with annual growth rates of 8.0% and 6.6%, respectively, over the next five years. However, the upper end of the Affluent/Lower-HNWI group remains a significant opportunity for asset managers globally: a segment that is “wealthy but underserved” and offers significantly higher revenue potential than the UHNWI and HNWI space. Asset managers that can tailor their offerings and manage costs can unlock growth in this segment.
Offshore financial wealth totaled 14 trillion U.S. dollars in 2024, with cross-border wealth flows growing at nearly 10% annually, outpacing global growth. Geopolitical uncertainty and diversification needs among UHNWI clients are sustaining demand for booking centers in safe havens. The three largest cross-border wealth hubs—Switzerland, Hong Kong, and Singapore—are expected to capture nearly two-thirds of new inflows through 2029. Outside these top centers, the United States and the United Arab Emirates are projected to see the fastest growth, with the U.S. benefiting from Latin American flows and the UAE expanding its appeal beyond the Middle East.
In terms of converting clients into profit, the challenge for asset managers will be to tap into this expanding pool while managing costs effectively. The report highlights that revenue margins in the sector dropped by 6 basis points in 2024 and another 3 basis points in the first half of 2025. Three out of four leading firms recorded declines, and only half offset them through cost reductions—further highlighting pressure on margins.
Clients with a net worth between 1 and 10 million U.S. dollars are identified as a key segment. This group is the largest by volume, offers higher basis-point returns than UHNWIs, and is seeing the entry of many new participants who are unadvised and holding substantial cash reserves. To win in this segment, leading asset managers are mobilizing five strategic catalysts:
Modular investment solutions with varying levels of performance protection.
Portfolio anchoring with tax-efficient equities, fixed income, and structured solutions for growth, income, and protection.
Transparent packaging and value-based pricing.
A hybrid human-digital model supported by robust digital and AI layers.
Enhanced client acquisition channels.
At the same time, asset managers are being warned against over-reliance on market beta. Between 2015 and 2024, only about one-third of asset manager growth came from net new money, prompting firms to focus more on relationship manager productivity, pricing discipline, and increasing wallet share from existing clients.
Morgan Stanley and Oliver Wyman emphasize that asset managers must urgently readjust their costs: “Many cost-to-income ratios (CIRs) hover around 75%, with personnel accounting for around two-thirds of operating expenses. Operating model programs can unlock between 10% and 25% in gross savings before reinvestment.”
Photo courtesyPhilippe Dauba-Pantanacce, Global Head of Geopolitics & Senior Economist at Standard Chartered.
Although “de-dollarization” is advancing in some emerging markets and several countries are seeking to reduce their dependence on the dollar, it remains the main currency for international trade, as well as for global reserves and financial markets. “The dollar is not dead, but it is taking on new forms,” says Philippe Dauba-Pantanacce, Global Head of Geopolitics & Senior Economist at Standard Chartered, who believes that the future of the U.S. currency faces a global context shaped by political tensions, changes in supply chains, and a globalization that is also not dead—but is likewise taking on new forms.
According to the economist, the dollar faces growing challenges: “More and more countries are seeking to reduce their dependence on the dollar, partly because the United States has used the dollar as a weapon for political purposes.” For Dauba-Pantanacce, one example is the exclusion of Russian banks from SWIFT or the prolonged sanctions on Iran, which “has led many emerging markets to question the neutrality of a currency they view as too closely tied to decisions made in Washington,” he explains.
Even so, the Standard Chartered expert stresses that this trend does not imply a collapse of the dollar. According to his analysis, “de-dollarization is real, but progressing slowly and does not change the fact that the dollar remains the dominant currency in international trade, global reserves, and financial markets.” He also notes that, even in recent episodes of volatility, the dollar has regained its role as a safe-haven asset, demonstrating that its leadership remains intact.
When discussing possible alternatives, Dauba-Pantanacce emphasizes that none are in a position to replace it. In the case of the renminbi, he explained that China’s ambition clashes with its own capital controls. As for the euro, he acknowledges it has potential, but notes that “to elevate a currency, you need a liquid capital market,” and today Europe still lacks the financial depth that would allow the euro to compete with the dollar on equal footing. Regarding the BRICS, he adds that the idea of a common currency is unrealistic and lacks both the political will and integrated financial structures.
In conclusion, Dauba-Pantanacce believes the world is moving toward a more multipolar structure, with several currencies gaining some ground as globalization evolves. But he stresses that this process does not signal the end of the dollar’s leadership: “Its enormous liquidity, the size of the Treasuries market, and its status as a global safe haven remain unmatched. The dollar is being questioned, but it is not being replaced.”
Following recent rumors reported in the financial press, Allfunds and Deutsche Börse have each issued statements confirming that they are in “exclusive negotiations” regarding a potential acquisition by Deutsche Börse of all issued and outstanding share capital of Allfunds.
“Allfunds confirms that it has been approached by Deutsche Börse AG (Deutsche Börse) and is in exclusive negotiations with it regarding a possible acquisition of Allfunds by Deutsche Börse. The Board of Directors of Allfunds has unanimously agreed to enter a period of exclusivity based on the proposal submitted by Deutsche Börse,” Allfunds explained in its statement.
For its part, Deutsche Börse expressed caution and noted that “the announcement of any binding offer regarding a potential acquisition is subject to the satisfaction or, where applicable, waiver of a number of customary conditions precedent, including, among others, the successful completion of customary due diligence on Allfunds, the finalization of definitive transaction documentation, and final approval by the Boards of Directors of both Deutsche Börse and Allfunds.”
The proposal entails a total consideration of €8.80 per Allfunds share, valuing the company at €5.29 billion. The proposed payment would be structured as follows:
€4.30 per Allfunds share in cash;
€4.30 in new Deutsche Börse shares for each Allfunds share—calculated based on the 10-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of Deutsche Börse shares prior to the announcement, unaffected by the deal;
€0.20 per Allfunds share for fiscal year 2025, as a permitted cash dividend to be paid by Allfunds in 2026.
Deutsche Börse’s Rationale
Deutsche Börse Group stated it strongly believes in the “solid strategic, commercial, and financial rationale” of combining Allfunds with its own fund services business segment. “This potential business combination would represent a successful new consolidation, creating a true pan-European ecosystem. It would reduce fragmentation in the European investment fund industry and result in a harmonized, globally scaled business that would play a key role in further facilitating the channeling of retail savings into productive capital allocations, such as investment funds. The combination is expected to generate significant operational efficiencies and cost synergies across platforms and services, enable a streamlining of investment capacity, and foster greater innovation for clients, with even faster market access. Overall, both clients and EU equity markets are expected to benefit significantly from the strengthened structure of such a combined platform,” Deutsche Börse noted in its statement.
It added: “Deutsche Börse Group is a firm advocate that a thriving fund sector is essential to the EU’s status as a globally relevant financial hub. The proposed transaction would align with Deutsche Börse’s strategy and further underscore its continued commitment and efforts to strengthen European capital markets and their global competitiveness, as envisioned in the Savings and Investments Union (SIU).”
Next Steps
Both companies reiterated that the announcement of any binding offer related to the proposal is subject to the fulfillment—or waiver—of a number of customary conditions, including a satisfactory due diligence review of Allfunds, the finalization of definitive transaction documents, and approval from the boards of Deutsche Börse and Allfunds.
“There can be no certainty regarding the conclusion of any future agreement with Deutsche Börse or any other party in relation to a potential transaction, nor regarding the terms of any possible transaction (if agreed),” Allfunds stated.
Allfunds began trading on Euronext Amsterdam in April 2021, after placing nearly 30% of its capital at a price of €11.50 per share. On its first trading day, the stock rose by 20%.
After weeks of fragmentation within the FOMC, the market now assigns an 80% probability to a 25-basis-point cut at the December 10 meeting. The shift in expectations accelerated after rumors emerged positioning Kevin Hassett—current Director of the NEC—as the leading candidate to chair the Federal Reserve.
Powell appears to have gained internal leeway to move forward with a “risk management” decision given the slowdown in consumption, the risk posed by the “K-shaped” economy, weakness in some manufacturing indicators, and the absence of significant inflationary pressures.
Mixed Macro, but With a Dovish Tone
Although the industrial recovery has yet to take hold, the set of data released this week supports an accommodative decision:
Regional Surveys:
Philadelphia: Overall index improves (from -12.8 to -1.7) despite a decline in new orders.
Dallas: Improvement in orders, but overall index deteriorates (from -5 to -10.4).
Richmond: Sharp decline (from -4 to -15).
Flash PMI:
United States: Rebound to 54.8, driven by services.
Eurozone/Germany: Manufacturing remains weak and the Ifo index declines (from 91.6 to 90.6), confirming stagnation.
Retail Sales: +0.2% (vs. +0.4% expected). Core PPI: Below consensus. Conference Board: Confidence stabilizes but remains on a downward trend. The reading for the labor market is still…
This environment reduces the immediate inflationary risk but increases that of a two-speed or “K-shaped” economy, in which the slowdown hits middle- and low-income consumption, while corporate investment—especially in AI—remains strong.
In Europe, the Ifo index (which falls from 91.6 to 90.6) also comes in below expectations and confirms the readings from the ZEW index a couple of weeks ago and the preliminary PMIs: growth will remain stagnant. The United States is performing better than Europe.
Employment: Risks Contained, but Not Null
The Beige Book reflects an economy with stable activity, but less momentum in sales and hiring. Labor demand is easing, but there are still no signs of pressure for mass layoffs.
This aligns with a view of a benign slowdown, sufficient to justify a cut, but without the panic associated with a severe short-term contraction.
Toward December: Mixed Signal Risks
Although the general expectation points to a cut in December, the tone of communication will be key to the market’s reaction. If Powell suggests that this is the last move of the cycle, or if the curve must adjust its expectations to a less accommodative monetary policy outlook for 2026, several side effects could arise:
High-multiple assets (tech, crypto, growth) could correct or move sideways if the market interprets the cut as the end of the road.
The dollar would be supported, hurting sensitive assets like gold, emerging markets, or bitcoin.
High-yield corporate credit, with spreads still tight, could suffer due to expectations of higher long-term rates.
The Taylor Rule indicates that fed funds are at reasonable levels; if a higher neutral rate is mentioned due to productivity or asset price bubbles, the market would interpret this as more hawkish than expected.
More Fuel for 2026?
The December cut and “pause” could be anticipated as a precaution in light of uncertainties in the labor market and a potential overheating in 2026, when the OBBA fiscal plan comes into full effect (contributing between 0.3% and 0.4% to GDP growth).
Added to this is the possibility of a targeted fiscal injection for low- and middle-income households, aimed at revitalizing consumption. While politically useful, this approach would further accentuate the divergence between consumption and savings across income groups, exacerbating the structure of the “K-shaped” economy.
AI, Investment, and Imbalances: The Boom That Divides
Corporate investment in AI continues to expand, supporting a narrative similar to that of 1995–1999. The process is evident, but still far from its peak.
However, the boom in productivity (and income) has not been distributed evenly. The top 10% of the population by income already accounts for more than 50% of total spending in the United States, which increases inequality in access to consumption and investment. This structural imbalance puts pressure on the Fed to continue cutting rates, even if inflation remains contained or surprises to the downside.
Valuations, Liquidity, and Volatility: Beware of Overheating
The combination of expansionary fiscal policy, tech-driven narrative, and expectations of rate cuts is pushing valuations to levels that warrant close monitoring. Despite comparisons to the dotcom bubble, the current environment includes:
Greater accounting transparency.
More profitable business models.
Lower operational and financial leverage.
High investment levels relative to cash flow generation, but still far from the excesses seen in the 1999–2000 TMT space.
Nonetheless, conditions can change rapidly. If the Fed is forced to reverse course in 2026, assets with more demanding multiples would be the most vulnerable.
The parallel with the 1995–1999 period remains valid: a structurally upward trend, but with greater volatility. In this context, taking strategic protection remains a reasonable decision, without giving up the underlying positive bias.
Conclusion
Everything points to a cut in December, driven more by a policy of prevention than reaction. But what matters most will not be the move itself, but how Powell communicates it.
Investors will need to balance three key axes:
AI narrative + expansionary fiscal policy = structural support.
Risks of uneven slowdown + reactive monetary policy.
Threat of overheating in 2026 = risk of reversal.
At this point in the cycle, the prudent course is to continue participating in the trend, but with discipline in risk exposure, close monitoring of consumption, and attention to signals of monetary reversal.
