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Michael Burry, Famous for the Film The Big Short, Shuts Down the Hedge Fund Scion Asset Management

Michael Burry, the investor known for his accurate bets against the U.S. housing market in 2008, has deregistered his hedge fund, Scion Asset Management, from the records of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The U.S. market regulator’s database listed Scion’s registration status as “cancelled” as of November 10. The deregistration would mean that the fund is no longer required to file reports with the regulator or any state, according to Reuters.

Scion’s bets, which managed $155 million in assets as of March, have long been analyzed by investors as indicators of potential impending bubbles and signs of market froth. Investment funds managing more than $100 million in capital are required to register with the SEC.

Burry is said to have written a letter to the fund’s investors, which was circulated via the social network X (formerly Twitter), in which he announced “with a heavy heart” the fund’s liquidation and the return of capital to investors by the end of the year. “My estimation of stock values is not now, nor has it been for some time, in tune with the market,” the letter reads.

A few days earlier, Burry wrote on his X profile: “On to much better things on November 25.” Burry, who appeared in the well-known book and film The Big Short, has in recent weeks intensified his criticism of tech giants, including Nvidia and Palantir Technologies, questioning the rise of cloud infrastructure and accusing major providers of using aggressive accounting to inflate profits from their massive hardware investments.

In his post on X, Burry stated that he had spent around $9.2 million on the purchase of approximately 50,000 put options on Palantir, noting that the options would allow him to sell the shares at $50 each in 2027. Put options grant the right to sell shares at a predetermined price in the future and are typically purchased to express a bearish or defensive outlook. Palantir shares were trading at $178.29 on Thursday, giving the company a market value of $422.36 billion.

Bearish Positions on Artificial Intelligence

Last month, Burry posted an image of his character from The Big Short and warned about bubbles, saying that “sometimes, the only winning move is not to play.” In his criticism of tech firms, Burry argues that as companies like Microsoft, Google, Oracle, and Meta invest billions of dollars in Nvidia chips and servers, they are also quietly extending depreciation schedules to make earnings appear smoother. To such an extent that, by his estimates, between 2026 and 2028, these accounting decisions could understate depreciation by around $176 billion, inflating reported profits across the sector.

His X profile, titled Cassandra Unchained, is seen as a nod to the Greek mythological figure cursed by Apollo to utter true prophecies that no one would believe.

The appreciation in shares of companies related to artificial intelligence has accounted for 75% of the S&P 500 index’s performance since November 2022, when OpenAI launched ChatGPT, according to a September analysis by JP Morgan Asset Management.

Scion, Burry’s firm, ended last year holding positions in American Coastal, Bruker, Canada Goose, HCA Healthcare, Magnera, Molina Healthcare, Oscar Health, and VF Corp, but the firm exited those positions earlier this year. During the quarter ending June 30, Scion Asset Management took a more optimistic stance on companies across different sectors and geographies, after previously betting against Chinese companies when President Donald Trump’s administration was considering the imposition of tariffs.

Challenges for Short Sellers

Burry, who founded Scion Asset Management in 2013, joins a group of high-profile investors navigating a market that has become increasingly hostile to bearish views in recent years, fueled by unrestrained optimism surrounding technology and strong interest from retail investors.

In this context, Hindenburg Research shut down earlier this year after a series of high-profile calls, including bets against Indian conglomerate Adani Group and U.S. electric truck maker Nikola.

Veteran short seller Jim Chanos, known for his bets against energy firm Enron months before its collapse, has also clashed with Michael Saylor’s bitcoin-focused company, Strategy. Chanos argued that Strategy’s valuation premium was unjustified—a criticism that prompted a sharp response from Saylor.

What Do We Buy When We Buy Gold?

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Friendvesting riesgo geopolítico — Canva

In 1992, a farmer in Suffolk stumbled upon the largest hoard of Roman coins ever found. Unknowingly, he had uncovered a story of crisis and the search for safety, when the Saxons invaded the area and a Roman family buried their gold. This treasure, known as the Hoxne Hoard, would remain undiscovered—but still precious—for 1,600 years. The family never got to use their safe-haven asset.

Today, gold is the subject of intense debate. Warren Buffett dismisses it as an asset that “only increases if the number of fearful people grows.” Ray Dalio counters that gold is “undervalued,” especially at a time when we are losing a monetary regime.

So, is gold a source of real losses, a store of value, or even a generator of value? Of course, the answer is nuanced. To understand gold, we must examine three questions: why investors buy it, why its price behaves so strangely, and whether its scarcity will endure.

Three Classic Reasons to Own Gold

1. Inflation

In the time of Nebuchadnezzar, an ounce of gold could buy 350 loaves of bread at approximately $7.90 each (adjusted to today’s value), roughly the same price as a loaf of bread at an artisanal bakery today. A thousand years later, gold still retains similar purchasing power and acts as a powerful hedge against inflation.

But timeframes matter. Over periods shorter than 20 years, gold proves unreliable, with volatility rivaling that of the S&P 500. Only over long periods has gold historically maintained its purchasing power. Therefore, for investors with very long horizons, it can serve as a hedge—but for shorter timeframes, it’s a risky bet.

2. Diversification

Gold is a safe haven against equities, with a very compelling track record. Historically, it has outperformed many alternatives for portfolio protection, and its average 10-year correlation with stocks is close to zero. But this relationship is not constant. Over time horizons shorter than a decade, correlations can turn positive, and benefits may evaporate when they are most needed.

3. Crisis Hedge

During the last 11 stock market downturns, gold delivered positive returns in eight of them. Even when it declined, the drop was far smaller than that of equities. Unlike costly put options, gold can generate positive returns both in crisis and non-crisis environments.

Inelastic Bands

As suggested above, the long-term price of gold appears inelastic. There is a “golden constant,” meaning gold seems to be a continuous store of value over the long term.

Why? Gold mining is difficult, expensive, and geographically dispersed. Globally, no one controls production, and China, the largest producer, accounts for only 12.5% of output.

Annual production is just 3,300 tons. Thus, the total amount of gold mined to date is tiny compared to other precious commodities like silver. It fits in a 23-meter cube—about the size of an Olympic swimming pool—and supply barely responds to price changes.

However, this inelasticity causes sharp short-term price swings, driven almost entirely by demand. Understanding this should, at the very least, influence the decision to invest in gold in the short and medium term.

The real price of gold is in some ways similar to the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. When the P/E is very high, expected returns on stocks are low because we anticipate some mean reversion. Similarly, since the real price of gold has remained relatively constant over the very long term, when the real price of gold is high, we expect some reversion.

Today, gold is also expensive compared to crude oil, silver, and copper. Historical patterns suggest low or even negative real returns over the next decade. While it’s important to remember that structural demand stemming from de-dollarization and possible regulatory changes could sustain prices longer than history suggests, investors buying at current levels are likely paying for safety and optionality—not growth.

The Constant May Not Be Sacred

What’s more, the gold constant is not sacrosanct. In 2004, the introduction of gold ETFs gave retail and institutional investors easier access to gold. This met pent-up demand and caused a structural shift in the price level—or the gold constant.

More recently, this relationship shifted again. The People’s Bank of China now leads global gold purchases, driven by fears over the weaponization of the dollar after the U.S. cut Russian banks off from SWIFT in 2022. China has established bilateral swap lines to reduce dollar dependency. Reserves are being diversified, and gold tops the list.

And more changes may lie ahead. Basel III regulations could be another catalyst. A 3% allocation to gold for banks’ high-quality liquid assets would trigger a demand surge comparable to the one caused by the introduction of gold ETFs.

What About Threats to Gold’s Scarcity?

Two main threats have emerged. Near-Earth asteroid 1986 DA contains approximately 100,000 tons of gold worth $10 trillion (at market prices). It is small (2.3 km) and requires no more fuel to reach than the Moon. Companies like AstroForge are already planning missions, while smaller, closer asteroids like 4660 Nereus offer even easier targets.

Secondly, nuclear alchemy is underway. Scientists transmuted bismuth into gold in 1980, albeit in microscopic amounts. Mercury, gold’s nearest atomic neighbor, is cheap and abundant. As nuclear fusion technology advances, large-scale transmutation may become theoretically possible.

If any of these initiatives succeed, the scarcity premium of gold could diminish.

The Golden Ratio

Gold is expensive today, so it’s unlikely to be a high-performing asset in the coming years. Long-term threats to its scarcity are real. However, in a world with $38 trillion in U.S. debt, weaponized currencies, and declining trust, gold offers something rare: an asset that no government controls and no central bank can print.

Gold’s expected return may be lower in the future, but it could serve as an insurance policy. The Romans who buried the Hoxne Hoard understood this—even if it didn’t save their lives.

Markets Digest the End of the U.S. Government Shutdown With Mixed Sentiment

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Joy and caution have been the two dominant sentiments in the market following the end of the longest U.S. government shutdown in history, lasting 43 days. On one hand, in the U.S., Wall Street traders drove most equities higher while bond yields declined. On the other, investors remained mindful that a return to normal will take weeks, and the core agreement only runs until January 31 of next year.

Paul Dalton, Head of Equities at Federated Hermes Limited, commented: “The resolution of the U.S. government shutdown removes some short-term uncertainty and is undoubtedly a positive development. However, we’re aware that this is only a temporary truce. The next deadline will come quickly. It remains to be seen whether this pause will create room for negotiating a more lasting agreement. For global equities, the outcome has been moderately favorable, and the resumption of data collection should give investors better visibility into the state of the U.S. economy. That said, delayed data may create ambiguity around the true economic situation, and key risks remain, such as the strength of the U.S. consumer and the ongoing debate over whether the AI trade is a bubble.”

The Optimism

Benoit Anne, Senior Managing Director of the Strategy and Insights Group at MFS Investment Management, highlighted the good news: “Analysts will once again benefit from the resumption of official data flows. It also means the negative growth impact of the shutdown will be fairly limited. The key question now is what kind of macroeconomic picture will emerge. Labor data seems to be setting the tone, though it may continue to send mixed signals.”

The optimism surrounding the end of the U.S. government shutdown helped U.S. equities extend gains on Tuesday. Historically, such shutdowns have had a limited impact on markets, so the quick shift in investor sentiment should come as no surprise. For Mark Haefele, CIO of UBS Global Wealth Management, “The Federal Reserve’s accommodative monetary policy, strong corporate earnings, and robust AI spending have been the main market drivers and should continue to support the equity rally. We believe U.S. stocks still have upside potential and expect the S&P 500 to reach 7,300 by June 2026.”

The Caution

Anthony Willis, Senior Economist at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, agreed that the reopening will finally provide the Fed with greater clarity on economic data and policy direction—an absence that had stalled legislative activity. But he warned: “Even if the shutdown’s economic impact was limited, flight delays and risks to food stamp disbursement brought the situation to a critical point. Other challenges persist, such as the Supreme Court review of tariffs imposed by President Trump.”

Banca March noted that financial markets are cautiously welcoming the government’s reactivation, aware of its temporary nature. Investors remain focused on delayed macroeconomic publications, and next week’s anticipated Nvidia results add to the ongoing AI debate.

“In the coming days, publication calendars from affected agencies will be updated, and the final decision on the matter will be made. This calendar will be key, as the data will be used by the Federal Reserve Committee in its monetary policy meeting scheduled for December 10. Though the return to normal will be gradual, it comes just in time for the holiday season. The worst economic impact has been avoided, and the Trump Administration is presenting this reopening once again as a victory in a crisis that was, in reality, self-inflicted,” Banca March stated in its daily report.

Muzinich & Co offered a more critical view, suggesting the U.S. is at the center of rising global caution. “Investors are stress-testing the wall of worries—growth, geopolitics, valuations, liquidity, and imbalances—in a financial version of Jenga. In other words, sentiment has deteriorated. Our preferred indicator, the VIX index, recently crossed the 20 level, indicating rising uncertainty. The U.S. is at the heart of this global uncertainty spike, beginning with the partial government shutdown—the longest on record—estimated to have cost the economy about $15 billion per week.”

Assessing the Shutdown’s Impact

Experts believe that much of the economic activity lost in recent weeks will be recovered as federal employees return to work and receive full back pay. “The U.S. GDP for Q4 is expected to be reduced by several tenths of a point due to the shutdown, but much of this should be offset by stronger output in Q1 2026, boosting full-year growth. We forecast 2.4% growth for next year, up from 2.1% this year, despite rising threats to U.S. economic momentum,” analysts noted.

While short shutdowns usually have limited economic effects, this one could leave a lasting mark due to its record length. The Congressional Budget Office recently estimated that around $11 billion in economic activity could be permanently lost, according to Dennis Shen, Chair of the Macroeconomic Council at Scope Ratings.

Finally, Susan Hill, Head of Government Liquidity at Federated Hermes, highlighted the shutdown’s impact on liquidity markets due to the lack of official data and how this may have influenced Fed policy discussions. “We welcome the end of the shutdown and the return of data ahead of the December FOMC meeting. Technically, the Treasury’s elevated operating cash balance—partly a result of delayed outflows during the shutdown—has contributed to higher overnight funding rates at the short end,” Hill concluded.

Jim Caron (Morgan Stanley IM): “Investing Today Requires Looking Beyond Tariffs: Fiscal Policy and Deregulation Are Game Changers”

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Equities have risen steadily throughout 2025, even in the face of geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility. In the opinion of Jim Caron, Head of Macro Strategies for Fixed Income and Portfolio Manager at Morgan Stanley IM, and despite his fixed income focus, the standout asset this year has been equities: “Valuations and price levels have continued to rise steadily despite general and geopolitical uncertainty. This asset class has proven resilient to crises, recovering more strongly after each downturn.” With two months left in the year, the manager offered an early assessment of 2025 in his latest interview with Funds Society.

What is your assessment of the performance of the main asset classes so far this year?
We’re in a year where both fiscal and monetary policy appear to be working in tandem, resulting in a revival of both equity and bond assets. Fiscal stimulus and monetary easing can be observed in Germany, Japan, and the United States, which favors equities. In the U.S. and Europe, monetary policy is easing, which benefits bonds. Only the Bank of Japan is gradually raising interest rates, and even then, from very low levels.

The alternatives landscape is mixed. Private credit has been well-valued and has recently entered a phase of stress. Private equity, on the other hand, seems to have stabilized at lower levels, and for those with patience, this may be a good time to gain exposure.

2025 has been marked by Trump, geopolitics, and monetary policy. How has this impacted and changed how managers have approached investment opportunities this year?
Investment managers have learned to analyze policy holistically. Beyond tariffs, which are negative, these are offset by deregulation and fiscal stimulus policies, which are positive. The key lies in considering all three factors and not focusing solely on tariffs in order to have a global view and assess the net effect of tariffs, fiscal policy, and deregulation on asset performance. So far, the net balance is positive for the market.

Looking ahead to 2026: what do you think will be the main themes to watch next year?
The labor market is fundamental. If the labor market weakens significantly, consumption and profit margins will suffer. This will lead to more layoffs and a decline in consumption and GDP. That’s the main focus. Business investment, capital spending, and whether these will not only continue in 2026 but also lead to greater economic productivity supporting potential growth, earnings, and valuations are also being closely watched.

More and more institutional investors are demanding customized solutions over standardized products. What types of tailored structures or strategies are you developing to meet this need?
This is a broad area, but let me highlight one example. Many investors are seeking to incorporate both public and private markets into their portfolios. Return objectives and liquidity needs are not uniform, so customized solutions are essential. Our team has been designing and managing portfolio risk across public and private markets for nearly 20 years. This type of strategy was primarily used for institutions, OCIOs, and high-net-worth investors. However, today we can offer more personalized portfolio solutions in both public and private markets to clients with a much lower minimum investment requirement.

The Portfolio Solutions Group is described as an innovation “laboratory” in asset management. How are you integrating quantitative tools, artificial intelligence, or advanced optimization models into the asset allocation process?
We have incorporated large language models and AI tools to help us identify sectors and individual companies and build equity baskets tied to market trends. Essentially, we’ve developed a thematic investment approach that goes beyond traditional factor-based investing to implement our views and build portfolios. We can quickly absorb a vast amount of information and data and distill it into actionable insights that become thematic expressions of our views. We believe this is the way forward for investing.

Alternative Assets Will Reach $32 Trillion by 2030: Five Key Trends

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Looking ahead and considering how private markets will evolve over the second half of the decade, it is important to assess some of the cyclical obstacles currently weighing on the market. According to the Preqin study “Private Markets in 2030,” private equity fund distributions have been relatively low in recent years, which has limited cash flows to Limited Partners (LPs) and, in turn, reduced investors’ willingness to commit capital to new funds. This stands in sharp contrast to the strong growth and accelerating activity in private markets when pandemic-era stimulus measures were in place in 2021.

Since the peak of the cycle in 2021, private markets have remained in a quiet phase, with only tentative signs of recovery in exit volumes. Looking five years ahead, Preqin expects that the recovery in exit volumes will help drive a new cycle within private equity—and private markets more broadly.

To such an extent that alternative assets under management are on track to reach $32.01 trillion globally by 2030, according to the report. The firm forecasts that the sector will recover from the current stagnation in exit volumes, which could mark the beginning of a new cycle in private markets, as detailed by Cameron Joyce, Director and Global Head of Research Insights.

Alternatives AUM expected to exceed $30tn in 2030F
Alternatives assets under management by asset class

Preqin experts identify five key trends in alternative markets for the next five years:

A New Cycle Should Emerge

We expect that the recovery in exit volumes will help drive a new cycle in the field of private equity and private markets more broadly. Scenarios that could trigger this new cycle include a reduction in official interest rates, continued convergence in asset valuations between buyers and sellers, and an ongoing structural shift in allocations from public to private markets.

Infrastructure Moves to the Forefront

Infrastructure as an asset class is expected to accelerate in growth, with assets under management approaching $3 trillion by the end of 2030. Growth in Europe is expected to outpace that of North America in this area.

European infrastructure to grow fastest up to 2030F
Infrastructure AUM by region focus

Private Credit Reaches Maturity

The firm also expects that the introduction of new, more liquid fund structures in private credit will support growth in assets under management within this asset class. At the same time, it anticipates that the continued expansion of private credit will enhance the sector’s ability to compete with the banking industry. Forecasts indicate that private credit will double its assets under management by 2030, with further growth potential driven by greater investor access and banking disintermediation.

Fundraising for distressed debt forecast to grow at faster rate than direct lending
Aggregate fundraising by sub-strategy

AI Momentum for Private Capital

Preqin also expects artificial intelligence to be a key driver of venture capital-backed investment over the next five years, with an increase in the rate of startup creation as AI tools lower barriers and reduce costs. In addition, private equity-backed companies are expected to leverage AI technologies to boost operational efficiency.

The Wealth Channel Will Support Fundraising

As a fifth trend, the firm anticipates that the wealth investor segment will increase its overall share in private market fundraising by 2030. Moreover, it does not rule out this segment becoming an additional source of upside risk to its forecast.

The Three Forces Driving Investment in Nuclear Energy Through ETFs

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Nuclear energy is once again drawing attention after years in the background, becoming a subject of debate regarding its long-term viability and whether its potential benefits—reliable and clean energy—outweigh its risks—safety and environmental impact. According to VanEck, three key forces are currently driving investment in the nuclear energy ecosystem.

1. Rising Electricity Demand

The International Energy Agency forecasts a global increase in electricity demand, driven by emerging economies such as China and India.

This trend is also supported by several macro developments, including:

Artificial Intelligence, whose data-intensive usage is rapidly increasing the need for data centers and their associated energy consumption.
Electric vehicles, ranging from cars to a wide variety of battery-powered machinery.
Cryptocurrencies, which also require significant amounts of energy.
Climate-related factors, such as intense heatwaves in multiple regions, have further contributed to heightened electricity demand.

2. A Clean and Reliable Energy Source

Global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through the expansion of renewable energy capacity have been delayed, according to various studies. As a result, existing nuclear facilities and new projects have become vital components in the global energy transition.

Nuclear energy has significantly lower emissions compared to certain renewable sources and is not subject to generation timing constraints. Unlike wind and solar power—limited by calm winds and dark skies—nuclear power provides consistent and reliable energy.

Additionally, nuclear energy requires a fraction of the land area used by solar and wind installations, making it a compact and efficient source. For example, an average 1,000-megawatt nuclear plant in the U.S. requires around 1.3 square miles of land, compared to 31 times more for solar and 173 times more for wind energy.

3. Growing Regulatory Support

Another major driver is renewed governmental support. After the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, many countries deprioritized nuclear energy in favor of alternatives. However, in recent years, many have reversed this stance.

Nations such as the United States, Japan, China, Switzerland, India, and Norway are now demonstrating regulatory support for nuclear power.

ETFs Aligned with This Megatrend

Investors can gain exposure to this long-term trend through exchange-traded funds (ETFs):

VanEck Uranium and Nuclear Technologies UCITS ETF
This fund provides comprehensive exposure to the nuclear energy ecosystem. In addition to uranium mining companies, it includes nuclear energy producers, engineering and construction firms, and suppliers of equipment, technology, and services for the nuclear sector. It has seen a 12-month return of approximately 50%.
Global X Uranium UCITS ETF
Offers access to companies involved in uranium mining and nuclear component production, including firms engaged in exploration, refining, or manufacturing equipment for uranium and nuclear energy industries.
WisdomTree Uranium and Nuclear Energy UCITS ETF
Seeks to replicate the performance of the WisdomTree Uranium and Nuclear Energy Index, which is designed to reflect the performance of companies operating in the uranium and nuclear energy sector.

These ETFs allow investors to participate in a sector that is regaining relevance amid energy transition challenges, technological advances, and growing global power demand.

Albert Saporta (CEO): “Make GAM Great Again”

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Photo courtesyAlbert Saporta, CEO of GAM

Although he has held the position for only four months, the path toward achieving this goal began a couple of years ago, when an investor alliance called NewGame—including the Swiss wealth management firm Bruellan and French billionaire Xavier Niel—became majority shareholders and took control of the company.

“It was two years ago when I started to take an interest in GAM and began investing, as its stock had dropped dramatically. I knew the firm from my career in alternative investments and knew that GAM had been a major reference and expert in that field. In fact, it was the leading entity in the hedge fund space during the ’80s, ’90s, and part of the 2000s. But the company had been losing money for four years, which is an anomaly in the industry. When I looked into it, I saw that the managers were still outperforming the market and that the brand’s reputation remained strong, despite the 2018 scandal. It seemed clear that GAM had a serious management problem. At that point, I decided to form a group of investors to acquire a stake in GAM and act as a constructive activist investor to influence the company’s management and strategy. I had the support of Xavier Niel to carry out this plan and raise the capital needed to invest in the company. So we created a structure in Geneva, Switzerland, called NewGame, and under that structure, we started buying shares in the market,” explains Saporta, describing the start of GAM’s new phase.

From Restructuring to the Future

After these first steps came disagreements with the then-management, which led to a takeover bid that enabled them to gain control of the company. “As soon as we took control of the company and management, we launched a restructuring program. In this phase, there were several key priorities. One was to stabilize the asset base, which had fallen from 85 billion to 20 billion, as well as to stabilize the investment management teams and retain some key employees. The offer from Lion Trust generated a lot of uncertainty and turbulence, so we had to calm the situation—and I believe we managed to do that quite successfully,” he recalls.

Another issue they had to deal with was the sharp decline in GAM’s assets under management following the 2018 scandal, which led to decisive action: “We had to reduce the size of the company. One of the first things we did was sell the third-party fund management business in Luxembourg and Switzerland to Carne Group, as it was highly resource-, regulation-, and time-intensive, and had low profitability.”

Saporta believes that the restructuring is now nearly complete, allowing them to focus on restoring the company’s original identity and building a business well-positioned for the future. “The first major strategic decision was to reposition GAM in the alternatives business and to do so quickly. For that, we started by closing deals with relevant partners who wanted to expand and believed in GAM’s narrative. So we completed four or five transactions with major firms. Many of these were people I knew from my professional experience—people I respect and who are extremely well regarded. And as I said, the best class, the best story, the best name in the business,” he affirms.

As a result of this work, over the past two years the firm has consolidated a network of strategic alliances to offer value-added and high-quality UCITS products to institutional investors, distributors, and private banks. These partnerships include firms such as Avenue Capital, Galena, Gramercy, Swiss Re, and Liberty Street Advisors.

To Saporta, the value of these partnerships lies in offering a more specialized product range, backed by sector experts and delivering added value—something he considers essential in an industry where margins are increasingly tight. “We have built these alliances without creating conflicts with our own fund offerings and with a clear commitment to active management strategies, including fixed income and equities, and oriented toward the wealth business,” he adds.

GAM Today and Tomorrow

Up to now, this has been the path GAM has taken. Now, Saporta wants to focus on the future. While he admits it’s difficult to predict where the company will be in five years—or whether it will even return to profitability by 2026—he is confident that it will be significantly larger than it is today.

“Investment in GAM will remain strong, which will allow us to scale up. In the short term, our priority is to ensure the firm becomes profitable again and completes its transformation process. I believe we now have all the necessary elements to achieve that. We’ve restructured the company, stabilized the investment management teams, returned to the alternatives space, and done so in a way that is substantial and different from other managers. The excellence of the firms we’re working with shows that we’re different. I believe we’ve already completed most of the partnerships we want and have done so without becoming a fund supermarket,” the CEO states.

To strengthen their fund offering, Saporta highlights that they’ve also completely revamped the sales teams. “Besides a scalable model, one of GAM’s strengths is its global distribution network. That’s quite unique for a firm of this size. We have offices throughout Europe’s major financial centers, as well as in Asia, Australia, and the United States. We also have a partner in Chile for South America and another in Hong Kong/China for those markets. We have a very significant distribution platform, and we’ve changed almost all the heads of these offices in their respective jurisdictions,” he notes.

While this entire “machinery” and strategy is in motion, Saporta is currently focused on visiting each of the company’s offices and meeting with investors to convince them that the GAM project is alive and worth supporting. “Being part of the investor group and having a significant investment in GAM through NewGame gives me the credibility needed to deliver that message. And I think it’s working very well. We still benefit from having a highly recognized name and we’re seeing a very good reception to our proposal: ‘Help us return GAM to its former position, and we will help you by offering excellent products that enable you to outperform your competitors and satisfy your clients.’ I believe that message is resonating strongly. I think we are already in the final phase to truly turn this firm around,” concludes Saporta during his visit to Madrid.

State Street and Albilad Capital Sign Strategic Agreement

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

State Street Corporation has announced the signing of a strategic cooperation agreement with Albilad Capital, one of Saudi Arabia’s leading financial institutions specializing in securities services and asset management. According to the statement, under this agreement, State Street will support Albilad Capital’s securities services offering in the country.

The firm stated that this partnership highlights State Street’s long-term strategic investment in Saudi Arabia and its strategy to provide global product capabilities to local clients. In this regard, they added that the collaboration, aligned with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, aims to strengthen the Kingdom’s financial and capital markets by combining State Street’s industry-leading solutions with Albilad Capital’s local market expertise.

“We are delighted to collaborate with Albilad Capital to support their clients and growth and contribute to the development of the Kingdom’s capital markets. This strategic alliance underscores State Street’s commitment to expanding our presence in the Kingdom and delivering world-class, innovative securities services to local and international clients in one of the fastest-growing markets in the world. By combining State Street’s global capabilities with Albilad Capital’s market knowledge, we can meet the growing demand for sophisticated investment solutions and help support the Kingdom’s ambition to become a leading financial center,” said Ron O’Hanley, Chairman and CEO of State Street.

Zaid AlMufarih, CEO of Albilad Capital, stated: “This collaboration reflects Albilad Capital’s commitment to advancing the evolution of the securities services sector in the Kingdom and enhancing market competitiveness by adopting global best practices. We are proud of this agreement, which combines State Street’s global expertise and advanced technological infrastructure with Albilad Capital’s leadership in the local market. This allows us to offer innovative and efficient investment solutions that support market development and meet our clients’ needs. Albilad Capital and State Street share a common vision focused on innovation, operational excellence, and the integration of international best practices to deliver highly efficient and effective local services. We are confident this collaboration will contribute to the transfer and localization of global knowledge, thereby supporting the development of the Kingdom’s financial market infrastructure.”

Commitment to Saudi Arabia

State Street has been serving clients in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for over 25 years and established local operations in 2020. Currently, the firm manages $127 billion in assets under custody and/or administration and $60 billion in assets under management for clients in the Kingdom.

“This initial cooperation agreement is the first step toward a long-term strategic relationship. Our goal is to deepen the collaboration and introduce additional investment services and capabilities for Saudi clients, improving the efficiency of capital markets and leveraging both firms’ capabilities in ETFs to facilitate direct foreign investment in the Kingdom,” added Oliver Berger, Head of Strategic Growth Markets at State Street.

Albilad Capital, the investment arm of Bank Albilad, was established in 2008 and offers a wide range of services, including brokerage, asset management, investment banking, custody, and advisory services to institutional investors, with a focus on Sharia-compliant products. The firm currently manages over $50 billion in assets under custody and/or administration.

The agreement was signed in Riyadh on October 29, 2025, in the presence of the Chairmen and CEOs of both companies, as well as other senior dignitaries.

The Dollar One Year After Trump’s Victory: Story of a Depreciation

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

This week—specifically on November 5—marked one year since Donald Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential elections. Since then, market consensus has shifted from betting on a strong dollar—due to Trump’s promise to impose tariffs on imports of foreign goods—to witnessing a depreciation against all G10 currencies.

“Following the sell-off at the beginning of the year, the dollar has stabilized in recent months. However, it is easy to imagine a scenario in which the depreciation continues,” explains George Brown, Global Economics Economist at Schroders.

According to his view, it is undeniable that the strength of the dollar has had wide-ranging repercussions on global growth, inflation, capital flows, and asset prices. However, “this year, the dollar is on track to record its biggest value drop since at least the year 2000. In this context, it makes sense for all investors to assess what such a decline could mean, as we believe there could be clear winners and losers,” states Brown.

“Investors Feared That the Trump Administration’s Policies Would Harm the Overall U.S. Economy. Moreover, a Series of Unorthodox Proposals Caused Concern: in Addition to Tariffs, the Government Considered Taxing Income From Treasury Bonds Held by Foreigners and Requiring Its Allies to Purchase Low-Yield ‘Century’ Bonds in Exchange for Security Guarantees. In Addition, Attacks on the Federal Reserve’s Independence Also Weighed on the Currency,” explains Claudio Wewel, currency strategist at J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable AM, regarding the uncertainty that has affected the U.S. dollar.

Outlook for the Dollar

In the view of the Schroders economist, the fundamentals of the dollar—such as the large twin deficits (budget and current account) and an exchange rate well above its long-term average—could lay the groundwork for a further 20%–30% depreciation. “The market reaction in recent months to U.S. policy announcements suggests that concerns about the Trump Administration have been the catalyst for these weak fundamentals to start materializing,” warns Brown.

For his part, Wewel sees little chance of this depreciation trend reversing and expects the dollar to continue weakening in 2026. “It’s true that investment in artificial intelligence is driving U.S. GDP growth, and investment in information processing technology will remain an important tailwind in 2026. However, support from the monetary front should begin to fade. Following the government shutdown, the Fed will be making decisions based on limited information. Although a rate cut in December is not guaranteed, we anticipate more easing in 2026, as the institution will maintain its ‘risk management’ approach. With Powell’s term ending in May 2026, the independence of the Fed will return to the center of the debate. We believe this will lead the market to anticipate a more accommodative monetary policy than the current one, even if inflation remains high. Furthermore, we do not expect the volatility leading up to the U.S. midterm elections to boost the dollar. In our view, a significant rebound in the currency would require a clear surge in U.S. macroeconomic momentum, something that is not part of our base scenario,” argues Wewel.

Regarding the recovery the dollar experienced on November 4—when it reached its highest level since May—David A. Meier, economist at Julius Baer, believes that the return of U.S. economic data will eventually break the current consolidation phase of the U.S. dollar, paving the way for further weakness.

“The dollar’s consolidation continues, with a new upward push last week that brought the euro/dollar pair to the 1.15 level. As confidence in U.S. assets has somewhat returned, the dollar is benefiting from the lack of economic data, showing very low volatility. Nevertheless, we maintain our view that, once economic data returns, the slowdown driven by U.S. tariff policy will become more evident, ultimately ending the consolidation and pushing the dollar lower. Although it is hard to justify given its recent resilience, we maintain our euro/dollar forecasts at 1.20 in three months and 1.25 in twelve months, which remains in line with the average depreciation of the dollar over those periods,” notes Maier.

Implications for Investment

For Pierre-Alexis Dumont, Chief Investment Officer at Sycomore AM (part of Generali Investments), one of the key lessons for investors in this first year is that both the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds have seen their status as reserve currency and safe haven questioned, respectively. “As a result, investors have sought diversification and alternative safe investments. Trump’s disruptive agenda has also created new market leadership, especially for European exporting companies. We will have to get used to an environment of lower visibility, greater dispersion, and different stock market leadership,” explains Dumont.

According to the currency strategist at J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable AM, the weakening of the dollar reflects investor concern, as they have sought ways to protect themselves against a decline in the dollar. In this regard, one of the big winners has been gold, which has posted its best performance since 1979, with an increase of over 50% so far this year.

“Flows into gold-backed ETFs have risen significantly, while central bank purchases have moderated. Despite its recent correction, we remain convinced that the environment remains favorable for the precious metal in both the medium and long term. We expect it to continue expanding its role as a global safe-haven asset,” notes Wewel.

Finally, Brown highlights the impact that the weakening of the dollar will have on emerging markets and their investment opportunities. The Schroders economist notes that a weaker dollar would be a deflationary boost for the rest of the world, an effect that tends to be stronger in emerging markets.

“A 20% depreciation of the dollar could reduce the average food inflation rate in emerging markets by around 1.2% and lower energy inflation by another 1.4%. Altogether, just the effects on food and energy could bring down the average headline inflation rate in emerging markets by about 0.5%, which stood at 3.2% in May 2025. Lower inflation due to currency appreciation would open the door for emerging market central banks to further ease their monetary policy, improving growth prospects,” concludes Brown.

Guaranteed Bonds: From Little-Known Asset to Fixed-Income Rock Star

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Photo courtesyHenrik Stille, Fixed-Income Portfolio Manager at Nordea Asset Management

One of the trends we’ve seen in 2025 is the return of fixed income to its traditional role and function in investment portfolios. According to Henrik Stille, portfolio manager at Nordea AM, this comeback is marked by investors demanding more than just high-quality credit and government debt—they are seeking new approaches to fixed-income positioning.

In this context, Stille points to one clear winner: covered bonds. This instrument provides a dual guarantee for investors—on one hand, the issuer itself (mainly financial institutions), and on the other, a pool of collateral assets. “They are considered a low-risk asset, rated AAA, generally uncorrelated with risk assets, and exempt from haircuts in the event the issuer defaults,” he explains.

European Financial Innovation

While relatively new, this asset class is becoming more familiar to investors. “Before 2007, they only existed in five or six countries worldwide, primarily in Western Europe. It wasn’t a widely followed asset class due to its limited scope. But after the 2007–2008 financial crisis, regulatory changes in Europe concerning financial institutions’ liquidity minimums and deposit backing led to more banks globally beginning to issue these covered bonds,” he explains.

In Stille’s view, this marked the starting point for an asset class that is now global. “Today, we’re looking at a €3.5 trillion market. In terms of liquidity, it is the second most liquid asset class after government-guaranteed bonds. For example, the Canadian covered bond market is now the seventh largest in the world—even though the asset class didn’t exist there before 2007. More importantly, as in the case of Canada, all countries are issuing covered bonds in euros. So we are dealing with a global euro-denominated asset class. It’s one of the few examples of financial innovation that Europe has successfully exported to the rest of the world. I believe we in Europe should be quite proud of that,” he states.

Covered Bonds in Portfolios

As an expert in the asset class, Stille notes that the rise of covered bonds has gone hand-in-hand with their inclusion in investment portfolios. Traditionally, investors have built their fixed-income allocations around two pillars: private and public debt. “However, more and more investors are becoming familiar with this asset class, and when shaping their fixed-income allocation, they’re now including a third pillar: covered bonds,” he adds.

The qualities that have turned covered bonds from an unknown asset into a fixed-income rock star are key to this shift. “First of all, this is an asset class that can only be issued based on available collateral, making them clearly liquid, lower-risk than other fixed-income assets, and highly rated—always AAA,” he emphasizes.

Stille highlights that the European Central Bank (ECB) itself has demonstrated the importance of covered bonds in monetary policy: “Over the past years, the ECB has implemented several direct purchase programs for covered bonds. When it began its QE program, it prioritized buying them over other credit assets or sovereign debt. They have always been a crucial part of the ECB’s monetary policy for two reasons: they are seen as a safe asset class, and, more importantly for the ECB, they are politically neutral.”

Investment Opportunities

When it comes to identifying key investment opportunities, the Nordea AM manager points clearly to Europe. According to Stille, there are four major regions of interest: Southern Europe, Eastern Europe, Southeast Asia (mainly Australia), and France.

“Southern Europe mainly refers to Spain, Italy, and Portugal. We like these countries because their banks are cautious in extending credit, have strong balance sheets, and receive high deposit inflows. These are well-balanced institutions. We also like them because their economies appear to be performing well. As for Eastern Europe, I’m thinking primarily of Slovakia and Poland, which share some similarities with the Southern European situation,” he explains.

Regarding Southeast Asia, Stille focuses on Australia but also sees opportunities in New Zealand, Singapore, and Japan. “We like this region because the bonds are issued by very strong banks—stronger than many European counterparts. They have better ratios and lower risks, though their yields are somewhat lower,” he notes.

Finally, Stille believes France deserves its own mention: “We like French bonds and believe they should not be penalized so heavily due to the country’s sovereign challenges. Even if the sovereign rating is downgraded to single A—as is quite likely next year—French covered bonds will remain triple-A. With French bonds still rated triple-A at current levels, we believe they are very attractive compared to many other countries’ bonds. French banks are stable, strong, and we can buy them at a 15–20 basis point spread versus Belgian banks, for example.”