The key theme across Asia continues to be digitalization, supported by an increase in IPOs across e-commerce, mobility, and FinTech. Chris Chan, Portfolio Manager of the New Capital Asia Future Leaders Fund, shares his thoughts for 2022 for the Asian equity sector.
2021 was a tough year for Asian markets Compared to the S&P500, Asian markets underperformed by about 30% (year-to-date – 16/12/21). The key element driving this underperformance was the Chinese stock market. However, going into 2022, we are much more constructive on the Chinese market.
There are a three key reasons for this. First and foremost: valuations. If you look at Chinese valuations compared to the rest of Asia and the US markets, historically speaking, it remains very attractive.
Secondly, in December 2021, the PBOC came out for very supportive for monetary easing. When you look back, typically there is a very strong correlation between the monetary easing cycle and Chinese stock market returns. Therefore, we expect this to be a positive stimulus for the China markets for 2022.
Thirdly, when you look at what’s driven the drawdown, it’s largely Chinese Internet names due to the pressures of negative regulation. When you look over the past few months, you can see that the incremental regulatory news flow is much less than it was. We expect this to continue and believe will act as a catalyst for the large cap Chinese tech names to recover.
We do expect bottom up earnings to remain weak, particularly in the property and the consumer sectors, at least for Q1 so we are looking at Q2 onwards for recovery on the fundamental side.
Outside China, we remain constructive on India with valuations historically high given the fact that the market has rallied about 30% (YTD 16/12/21). In the ASEAN region, we’ve been increasing our weight in markets like Vietnam and Indonesia, primarily because when you look at the latent recovery coming out of lockdown, arguably ASEAN has been further behind the rest of Asia, and therefore has more to offer for 2022, as confirmed by superior real GDP growth rates compared to the rest of the region.
The overriding thematic that we see across Asia continues to be digitalization, both in terms of digital services in India and Southeast Asia, supported by the increase in tech or digital IPOs across e-commerce, mobility, and FinTech. Within China, electric vehicles and solar energy remain the key structural trends benefiting a variety of companies across the supply chain.
You can also listen to Chris Chan, Portfolio Manager of the New Capital Asia Future Leaders Fund, rated five stars by Morningstar, as he shares his thoughts for 2022 for the Asian equity sector in this video.
For Cecilia Prieto