Mortgage interest rates are now rising, while rising costs are squeezing household budgets. After a more than 30% increase in home prices and construction spending, the housing market risks becoming a drag heading into 2023, says a report from ING Bank.
The U.S. housing market has been a major support for economic activity during the pandemic. Falling mortgage rates as the Fed lowered borrowing costs, combined with work-from-home flexibility that opened up more options for living, spurred a surge in demand.
At the same time, supply was constrained by COVID-19 restrictions, which initially led to a decline in construction activity. For-sale inventory fell to historic lows and, in an environment of excess demand, prices soared.
The S&P Case Shiller housing index is up 30% nationally since the pandemic occurred in February 2020, and even Chicago, the worst performing city, has experienced a 20% rise.
Rising construction contributed strongly to the growth.
Residential construction spending fell 5% between March and May 2020, but as work and traffic restrictions were lifted, construction activity rebounded. It is now up 35% from pre-pandemic levels, with builders’ spirits buoyed by rising selling prices, even as labor and building supply costs rise.
The result is that growth in residential construction investment has outpaced overall GDP growth, so that this sector alone accounts for 3.5% of total economic output.
In the short term, it appears that housing will continue to contribute positively to the economy. Employment and wages are increasing across the country, supporting demand, and new and existing home sales remain strong. This continues to support homebuilder optimism, as housing starts and building permits are at levels not seen in 2006.
Warning signs begin
Mortgage application data showed a small decline in home purchase applications. While the movement was not strong, the problem is that we could be looking at much larger declines in the coming months.
This is because mortgage rates are rising rapidly at a time when runaway inflation is eroding household purchasing power and consumer confidence.
The University of Michigan reported that sentiment is the weakest since 2011 and not far from the lows seen during the 2008 global financial crisis. With potential homebuyers beginning to feel more nervous about the economy, the prospect of sharply higher monthly mortgage payments adds additional reason for caution.
Treasury yields are rising as Fed officials shift to a narrative of wanting to curb inflation, and financial markets now anticipate that the federal funds rate will end 2022 at 2.25%, up 200 basis points from the beginning of the year.
Rising benchmark borrowing costs imply further upside risks to mortgage rates and housing could move from excess demand to excess supply.
Inventory levels remain low by historical standards, with 1.7 months of existing home sales. They are starting to pick up a bit for new homes, with 6.3 months of sales versus 3.5 months at the end of 2020.
But if home sales slow in response to lower demand, these inventory numbers could rise quickly. Let’s also remember that with building permits and housing starts at elevated levels, there are going to be more residential properties coming on the market later this year and early 2023.
Consequently, we see an increasing likelihood that the housing market will begin to move from significant excess demand, which has fueled rising home prices and construction, to one where we are in better balance.
However, with the Fed focused on fighting inflation by raising the fed funds rate and shrinking its balance sheet, we could see mortgage borrowing costs continue to rise rapidly. This would increase the chances that the housing market will tip into oversupply and home prices will start to fall, the bank asserts.
While this in itself is not particularly worrying from a household balance sheet point of view, as household liabilities appear to be low by historical standards, it may translate into further falls in consumer confidence and weaken consumer spending, as well as dampen new residential construction.
On the other hand, the slowdown in the housing market will open the door to Fed rate cuts in 2023, ING experts say.
Housing is not only important from an activity standpoint. The sector also has more than 30% of the weighting of the consumer price inflation basket through primary rents and equivalent rent from landlords.
If housing prices stabilize and may even fall, this could quickly translate into lower inflation readings. This would give the Fed more flexibility to respond with interest rate cuts if they end up rising so much that the economy begins to weaken.
For Funds Society, Madrid
For Marcelo Soba