In the U.S. Elections, the Devil Is in the Details: Deficit, Result Disputes, and Volatility Through 2025

The Experts' View

Date:

Detalles electorales en EE. UU.

Author: Beatriz Zúñiga

Harris's tax and spending proposals would add $2 trillion to the primary deficit cumulatively over the next decade, while Trump's proposals would add just over $4 trillion

The key to the elections is that the Senate will be Republican, and the House of Representatives will be controlled by the party that wins the presidential election

In the event of a contested result, political instability would weigh on markets through 2025, negatively impacting U.S. assets

History suggests that once the result is known, a "welcome rally" for the incoming president is likely

Allianz GI, Natixis CIB, Lombard Odier, Neuberger Berman, Scope Ratings, and Carmignac share their assessments