The world is experiencing a new environment marked by a cycle of interest rate cuts by the major central banks in developed markets, as well as in emerging regions. According to experts, over the past quarter, most monetary institutions have adopted a more cautious stance.
The best example of this is the Fed, which has once again shifted its focus to inflation, as economic activity has remained strong while disinflation has stalled. “The Fed maintains its data-dependent approach and is beginning to shift its attention to the labor market. We believe labor market conditions could shape the path of its future policy decisions. Similarly, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank also cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the third quarter of 2024, emphasizing data dependency without precommitting to any specific interest rate trajectory,” explain experts from Capital Group.
According to Invesco in its outlook for this year, rates remain generally restrictive in major economies but are easing. “On the one hand, the Fed is likely to remain neutral by the end of 2025, but improved growth prospects may delay rate cuts. On the other hand, European central banks are easing their policies, with relatively weaker growth than the U.S.,” they note.
Divergences in Monetary Policy
This reality brings us to a key conclusion: yes, we are in a cycle of rate cuts, but there will be noticeable divergences in the monetary policies of the major central banks. In fact, Capital Group believes that this divergence will play a significant role in the coming months.
This is reflected in the Central Bank Watch report, prepared by Franklin Templeton, which reviews the activity of G10 central banks, plus two additional countries (China and South Korea), along with their forecasts.
According to the report, the Fed’s shift in strategy has refocused its attention on inflation, as economic activity has remained robust while disinflation has stalled. “The policies of the newly elected president are also likely to influence the Fed’s interest rate projections, which currently only anticipate two cuts in 2025. Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are observing insufficient growth but remain cautious about the future interest rate path, as domestic and geopolitical uncertainties remain high,” the report states.
“Monetary policy divergence is likely to remain a prominent theme in the coming months. The Bank of Japan remains the exception among developed markets, as it has embarked on a rate hike cycle to end an era of negative interest rates. We maintain a relatively cautious stance regarding Japanese rates, as the central bank may make further policy adjustments in response to potential currency pressures. In Europe, the trajectory of monetary easing could depend on the weight policymakers place on downside growth risks compared to the pace and progression of wage pressures and services inflation,” Capital Group experts emphasize.
Another conclusion from the Franklin Templeton report is that “most central banks have become more cautious than they were a quarter ago.” According to their analysis, while the Bank of Canada cut its benchmark rate by 50 basis points in December, this may be its last significant move. “The Riksbank also seems to be taking a more neutral stance, and we believe the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will need to implement fewer cuts than the market currently anticipates. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank and the People’s Bank of China remain the most dovish,” the report highlights, noting the behavior of other key monetary institutions.
Lastly, the document underscores that some central banks face a set of dilemmas. “We believe the Norges Bank will lower rates, likely in the first quarter, followed by the Reserve Bank of Australia in the second quarter. Both were among the last to join the easing trend. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is expected to continue raising rates gradually in 2025. However, we believe the rigidity of inflation gives the central bank ample room to adopt a more aggressive stance,” the report concludes.
