“The excess return of 2024 as a whole shows the highest performance in high beta segments, meaning the riskiest market segments that offer greater return potential, and in euro markets,” explains the Amundi Investment Institute in its latest report.
According to the asset manager’s outlook for this year, corporate fundamentals remain strong, as companies have taken advantage of the post-pandemic period of ultra-low interest rates and economic recovery to improve their credit profiles, while technical conditions remain favorable.
“Structurally higher interest rates should support demand for corporate credit from investors seeking yields before central banks cut rates further. Official rate cuts could help support bond flows from money markets into longer-duration interest rate products to secure higher income. Net supply remains limited, as issuance is largely allocated to refinancing. Lastly, the buoyant dynamics of CLOs are also indirectly fueling demand for high-yield bonds, contributing to overall demand support in this market segment,” the report states.
Factors Driving the Fixed Income Market
According to Marco Giordano, Investment Director at Wellington Management, fixed income markets continue to rebound, while concerns about the potential negative impact on economic growth from global tariffs, turmoil in the U.S. federal government, and growing uncertainty are affecting overall sentiment.
“Credit spreads widened, with most sectors showing lower returns compared to equivalent government bonds,” Giordano highlights.
According to his analysis, four factors are currently moving the market: the Trump Administration’s tariff policy, Germany’s new political landscape, and European fiscal stimulus.
For the Wellington Management expert, one of the most significant implications of this scenario is that Europe is experiencing a major boost.
“Germany’s commitment to increasing its debt-to-GDP ratio to 20% has shaken markets, with bond yields surging across the eurozone. The 10-year German bund yield recorded its largest single-day increase since March 1990, rising 25 basis points. The spread between 10-year Italian bonds and German bunds fell below 100 basis points. Outside the eurozone, bond yields rose slightly in Australia, New Zealand, and Japan,” notes Giordano.
Meanwhile, in the U.S. fixed income market, yields continue to trend downward.
“At the end of February, long-term U.S. Treasury bonds with 7-10 year maturities had risen 3.5%, while the S&P 500 index had gained only 1.4%. In fact, so far this year, U.S. bonds have outperformed U.S. equities. As surprising as it may seem, there could be a perfectly valid reason for this relative performance. Naturally, recent U.S. economic data has tended to disappoint, which may explain why the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has fallen from 4.57% to 4.11% year to date,” explains Yves Bonzon, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) at Swiss private bank Julius Baer.
IG, CoCos, Frontier Bonds, and Corporate Credit: Asset Managers’ Investment Proposals
According to Benoit Anne, Managing Director of the Strategy and Insights Group at MFS Investment Management, euro credit valuations appear attractive from a long-term perspective.
“Given the current appealing level of euro-denominated investment-grade bond yields, the expected return outlook has improved considerably. Historically, there has been a strong relationship between initial yields like the current ones and solid future returns,” explains Anne.
He supports this with a clear example:
“With an initial **3.40% yield for euro IG bonds, the average annualized return for the following five years (using a range of ±30 basis points) is 4.40%—a hypothetically attractive return, with a range of 3.09% to 5.88%. In comparison, the 20-year annualized return for euro IG bonds stands at 2.72%, suggesting that, given current yields, this asset class is well-positioned to potentially offer above-average returns in the coming years.”
Crédit Mutuel AM, on the other hand, is focusing on the subordinated debt market.
According to their assessment, this type of asset posted positive returns of 0.6% to 1%, with a particularly dynamic primary market in AT1 CoCos.
“European banks took advantage of favorable conditions to prefinance upcoming issuances, with sustained demand. Additionally, bank earnings were solid, balance sheets became increasingly robust, and there was ongoing interest in mergers and acquisitions,” say Paul Gurzal, Co-Head of Fixed Income, and Jérémie Boudinet, Head of Financial and Subordinated Debt at Crédit Mutuel AM.
According to their analysis, the market maintained the trend of previous months, with positive inflows, strong primary market dynamics, and continued risk appetite, despite more mixed signals at the end of the month.
“The primary market was particularly dynamic for AT1 CoCos, with €11.6 billion issued during the month, which we estimate will account for 25%-30% of all 2025 issuances, as European banks took advantage of favorable market conditions to prefinance their upcoming 2025 calls,” add Gurzal and Boudinet.
The third fixed income investment idea comes from Kevin Daly, Chief Investment Officer and Emerging Markets Debt Expert at Aberdeen.
“After a strong 2024, we remain cautiously optimistic about the outlook for frontier bonds. Overall, fundamentals have improved, and there is still ample upside potential in terms of returns. Duration risk is low, which could help mitigate the impact of rising U.S. Treasury yields. Additionally, default risk—by all indicators—has also declined over the past year, driven by debt restructurings and improved maturity profiles. Risks related to the new Trump 2.0 administration are valid, but we believe the situation is more nuanced than generally discussed,” says Daly.
Lastly, Amundi believes that investment opportunities will remain linked to the pursuit of yields, which will continue to be a priority for most investors.
“We believe credit spread compression may have reached its peak in this cycle. After two consecutive strong years, credit spreads for both investment-grade and high-yield bonds are undeniably tight, but yields remain attractive compared to long-term trends. For this reason, we believe corporate bonds should continue to be an attractive income-generating option in 2025,” the asset manager states in its latest report.
For Guadalupe Barriviera
For Funds Society