U.S. farmers had already begun 2025 with an optimistic outlook, and their sentiment further improved in February. The Purdue University-CME Group Agricultural Economy Barometer rose to 152, an 11-point increase from the previous month.
An improvement in the current situation of U.S. farms was the main driver of stronger sentiment among producers, as the Current Conditions Index reading was 28 points higher than in January.
However, there was little change in producers’ assessment of future prospects, with the Future Expectations Index rising only 3 points in February to reach 159.
This latest increase in the Current Conditions Index capped off a long recovery from the stagnation seen in late summer and early fall of 2024, when the index hit a low of 76.
A strong rebound in crop prices in recent months—boosted by expectations of disaster payments authorized by Congress—combined with the strength of the U.S. livestock sector, contributed to a more positive assessment by producers regarding conditions on their farms and in the broader agricultural sector.
Despite the significant improvement in the Current Conditions Index, the Future Expectations Index for February remained 22 points higher than the current index, suggesting that farmers expect conditions to improve even further.
Meanwhile, the Agricultural Capital Investment Index rose 11 points to 59 in February. This reading also marked the most positive investment outlook reported by farmers since May 2021.
Interestingly, in February, it was a stronger assessment of current conditions—rather than heightened expectations for the future—that helped push the index upward. The Farm Financial Performance Index stood at 110, remaining virtually unchanged from 111 the previous month. While the index showed little change from January, it still reflects a significant rebound compared to last fall, when it fell to a low of just 68.
