In his monthly Investment outlook, titled “Global economic stabilization more likely than a further slowdown,” Björn Eberhardt, Head of Global Macro Research at Credit Suisse, states that the US FED may be able to hike rates in December 2015, while other central banks, such as the European and Japanese ones, may still announce further easing.
Eberhardt points that “The global economic outlook remains very uncertain. However, recent activity data on a wide range of economies has supported our expectation that the global economy is unlikely to slow further.”
Adding that the latest US data has also been relatively stable overall despite some signs of softening. Q3 GDP data is likely to show weaker growth compared to Q2, mainly due to weakness in trade. “Looking ahead, although business surveys have been weakening, consumer confidence remains very high, indicating that private consumption is likely to continue to be the main growth driver. And while payroll growth weakened in August and September, other labor market measures point to still very good conditions,” he says.
Based on solid domestic conditions – Eberhardt explains,the US Federal Reserve has good arguments for a first rate hike in December, “but the timing remains very uncertain. In our view, financial market pricing that virtually rules out a December hike has gone too far.”
Despite the fact that economic momentum in the Eurozone has, if anything, been somewhat more robust than in the USA Credit Suisse believes that the European Central Bank (ECB) may nevertheless have to announce further easing, “mainly because the outlook for Eurozone inflation remains very subdued and inflation expectations have weakened again.” As is the case in Japan. Eberhard believes further easing from both Central Banks might come as soon as this year.
Lastly, the expert states that when it comes to emerging markets and despite weak data, “the situation in major emerging markets has shown some signs of stabilization.”
For Alicia Miguel Serrano