The analysts at VanEck, Matthew Sigel (Head of Digital Asset Research) and Patrick Bush (Senior Investment Analyst), have just published their 10 predictions for the cryptocurrency market in 2025. Here’s a summary:
- The crypto bull market will reach a mid-term peak in the first quarter and set new highs in the fourth quarter.
We believe the crypto bull market will persist until 2025, reaching its first peak in the first quarter. At the cycle’s peak, we project Bitcoin (BTC) to be valued at approximately $180,000, and Ethereum (ETH) to trade above $6,000.
After this initial peak, we anticipate a 30% pullback in BTC, with altcoins experiencing more severe declines of up to 60% as the market consolidates over the summer. However, a recovery is likely in autumn, with major tokens regaining momentum and reaching previous all-time highs by year-end.
- The United States adopts Bitcoin as a strategic reserve and increases cryptocurrency adoption.
The election of Donald Trump has already provided a significant boost to the cryptocurrency market, with his administration appointing crypto-friendly leaders to key positions, including Vice President JD Vance, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins, FDIC Chair Jelena McWilliams, and HHS Secretary RFK Jr, among others.
These appointments mark the end of anti-crypto policies, such as systematic debanking of cryptocurrency companies and their founders, and the start of a policy framework that positions Bitcoin as a strategic asset.
- The value of tokenized securities surpasses $50 billion.
Cryptocurrencies promise a better financial system through increased efficiency, decentralization, and transparency. We believe 2025 will be the year tokenized securities take off. There are already approximately $12 billion in tokenized securities on blockchains, mostly tokenized private credit securities listed on the semi-permissioned Provenance blockchain from Figure.
In the future, we see immense potential for tokenized securities to launch on public blockchains.
- Stablecoin daily settlement volumes reach $300 billion.
Stablecoins will evolve from a niche role in cryptocurrency trading to become a central part of global commerce. By the end of 2025, we project that stablecoins will settle daily transfers of $300 billion, equivalent to 5% of current DTCC volumes, up from $100 billion daily in November 2024. Adoption by major tech companies (like Apple and Google) and payment networks (Visa, Mastercard) will redefine the payments economy.
Beyond trading, the remittance market will explode. For example, stablecoin transfers between the U.S. and Mexico could grow 5x, from $80 million to $400 million monthly, driven by speed, cost savings, and growing trust. Stablecoins will serve as a Trojan horse for blockchain adoption.
- On-chain AI agent activity surpasses 1 million agents.
We believe one of the most compelling narratives that will gain massive traction in 2025 is AI agents. These specialized bots help users achieve outcomes like “maximize returns” or “boost engagement on X/Twitter.”
AI agents optimize results by autonomously adapting their strategies. Protocols like Virtuals already provide tools for anyone to create AI agents for on-chain tasks. Virtuals allows non-experts to access decentralized AI contributors, like tuners, dataset providers, and model developers, enabling anyone to create their own AI agents. This will result in a massive proliferation of agents, which creators can rent out to generate income.
- Bitcoin Layer 2s (L2s) reach 100,000 BTC in Total Value Locked (TVL).
We are closely monitoring the emergence of Bitcoin Layer 2 (L2) blockchains, which hold immense potential to transform the Bitcoin ecosystem. These solutions enhance Bitcoin’s scalability by enabling lower latency and higher transaction throughput. Additionally, Bitcoin L2s introduce smart contract functionality, paving the way for a robust DeFi ecosystem built around Bitcoin.
- DeFi reaches all-time highs with $4 trillion in DEX volumes and $200 billion in TVL.
Despite record volumes in decentralized exchanges (DEXs), DeFi’s total value locked (TVL) remains 24% below its peak. We anticipate DEX trading volumes will exceed $4 trillion in 2025, capturing 20% of centralized exchange (CEX) spot trading volumes, fueled by the proliferation of AI-related tokens and new consumer-oriented decentralized apps.
Tokenized securities and high-value assets will catalyze DeFi’s growth, adding new liquidity and utility. As a result, we project DeFi’s TVL will exceed $200 billion by year-end, reflecting the growing demand for decentralized financial infrastructure in a digital economy.
- The NFT market recovers with trading volumes reaching $30 billion.
The 2022-2023 bear market hit the NFT sector hard, with trading volumes plunging 39% from 2023 and a staggering 84% from 2022. While fungible token prices began recovering in 2024, most NFTs lagged until a turning point in November.
Notable projects like Pudgy Penguins transitioned into consumer brands through collectible toys, while Miladys gained cultural prominence within internet subcultures. Similarly, the Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) evolved as a cultural force, attracting widespread attention from brands, celebrities, and mainstream media.
As cryptocurrency wealth rebounds, we expect affluent new users to diversify into NFTs, viewing them not only as speculative investments but as assets with lasting cultural and historical significance.
- DApp tokens narrow the performance gap with L1 tokens.
A constant theme of the 2024 bull market was the significantly better performance of Layer 1 (L1) blockchain tokens compared to decentralized application (dApp) tokens. For example, the MVSCLE Index, tracking smart contract platforms, gained 80% year-to-date, while the MVIALE Index of application tokens lagged with a 35% gain.
We expect this dynamic to shift later in 2024 as a wave of innovative dApps launches, offering new, valuable products that enhance their respective tokens. Key trends include AI-driven applications and decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN), which hold immense potential to capture investor and user interest.
This shift highlights the growing importance of utility and product-market fit in determining the success of dApp tokens in the evolving cryptocurrency landscape.
