Temperance and Caution: How the Montevideo Industry Is Reacting to the Trump Earthquake

In a 2025 marked by Donald Trump‘s frenetic political and media activity, portfolio diversification is no longer the doctrine of the model investor but a matter of survival. Without rushing or overreacting, Montevideo firms are considering how to strengthen their portfolios while making some moves.

AIVA: High-Quality Fixed Income and Caution with Emerging Markets

Analysts at AIVA Asset Management* point out that the Biden administration also imposed tariffs, albeit more quietly, and that Trump’s first term taught us that making noise is a key strategy for the current U.S. president.

Volatility in the coming years is a certainty, and Carmela Hernández, Investment Specialist at AIVA Asset Management, highlights that fixed income continues to offer attractive opportunities in high-quality, medium-duration bonds, providing stability and protection against fluctuations.

In equities, the U.S. and Europe still present opportunities, with sectors that could benefit from the anticipated economic policies. However, while selective opportunities exist in emerging markets, caution is essential, as these markets may face greater challenges due to potential trade retaliation and adjustments to global growth.

Nobilis: Diversifying Beyond the U.S.

Looking at history and valuations is crucial in these times. Nobilis analysts note the optimism among U.S. investors and question how long the S&P 500 can keep rising.

Mauricio Tchilingirbachian, Commercial Manager at Nobilis, suggests preparing portfolios with a global and diversified industry approach, avoiding overconcentration in the U.S. and technology sector, even though this segment has yielded the best returns over the past decade.

“Additionally, given the increased correlation between bonds and stocks in recent years and concerns about a potential high-inflation and high-interest-rate scenario impacting corporate earnings, we see value in diversifying portfolios by incorporating private alternative assets, such as private debt, which offer better returns than high-yield bonds and are less volatile than investment-grade bonds,” Tchilingirbachian adds.

The Time for Alternative Assets – Gastón Bengochea

In 2025, alternative asset investment is gaining traction in the Montevideo market, which has traditionally been cautious in this segment.

Diego Rodríguez, from Gastón Bengochea, summarizes the shift in the firm’s portfolios:

“We have been adding mid and small caps in the U.S., as we believe conditions are favorable for strong performance, at least in the early years of Trump’s presidency. We continue to increase bond exposure, favoring seven-year duration bonds, and are beginning to incorporate more private debt alternative assets.”

Vinci Compass Favors U.S. and Latin American Equities

Vinci Compass maintains a constructive risk stance in asset allocation, with a slight overweight in equities, favoring the U.S. and Latin America, the latter supported by a favorable commodities environment. In fixed income, they remain underweight, holding cash positions amid persistent volatility.

Renzo Nuzzachi, CFA, Head of Intermediaries Latam, explains that in equities, they favor global strategies with a core bias:

“The core bias in equities helps avoid overexposure to a single factor in a context of high valuations and amid potential market leadership shifts, such as the DeepSeek event.”

In fixed income, Vinci Compass prefers flexible strategies in both asset types and duration:

“Being flexible in fixed income is crucial, as spreads are at historic lows. Strategies that can navigate between different fixed-income segments will have better chances of strong performance. Likewise, being flexible in duration is key, as interest rate volatility is likely to persist throughout the year. The market is still adjusting its expectations regarding growth, the deficit, and inflation following the new U.S. government’s measures,” concludes Nuzzachi.

PUENTE Prioritizes High-Quality Segments

At PUENTE, analysts also note strong valuations in U.S. equities.

Nicolás Cristiani, Head of Wealth Management for the Punta del Este office, believes this is the time to be selective, prioritizing high-quality segments in the equity market:

“In fixed income, attractive entry points have emerged given the high interest rates, especially in short- and medium-duration bonds, to mitigate price volatility. Additionally, alternative investments could be a suitable option, with a focus on private credit and private equity, leveraging macroeconomic stability, long-term potential, lower volatility, and attractive expected returns.”

BECON IM: Between Trump’s Bluff and a Necessary Reflection

“We believe Trump’s tariffs are more of a negotiation tactic than a revenue-generating effort. However, there is more than enough uncertainty around them to make investors reflect,” says BECON IM.

The Rio de la Plata-based firm remains long-term constructive on U.S. growth and summarizes its portfolio strategy as follows:

“Maintaining calm during volatility is essential to capitalize on opportunities in both fixed income—where we overweight short-duration bonds, emerging markets, ABS/CMBS, private debt, and multi-sector strategies—and equities, where we favor small caps (at historically attractive levels), value stocks, and real estate.”

Buda Partners: Hedged Assets and a Focus on Emerging Markets

For Buda Partners analysts Guillermo Davies and Paula Bujía, the greatest risk is that inflationary pressures could be high enough for the Fed not only to abandon rate cuts but also for the market to start pricing in rate hikes.

“While this is not our base scenario, its probability is not insignificant,” they note.

“At Buda, we recommend a medium duration in fixed income (3x-4x) and have maintained exposure for over a year to naturally inflation-hedged assets, such as energy stocks and gold. We also favor diversification outside the U.S., prioritizing emerging markets and core global funds with exposure to Europe and Asia.”

LATAM ConsultUs: Applying Common Sense

LATAM ConsultUs recommends flexibility, diversification, and hedging mechanisms—and, above all, a healthy dose of common sense, which they say is “the least common of senses,” in the face of market volatility.

“While Trump’s tariff announcements triggered immediate market reactions, the long-term fundamentals of many companies remain unchanged. This highlights the difference between short-term noise and the factors that truly affect an investment’s value.

That’s why, before reacting to market movements, we ask: Does this event fundamentally change the companies or assets I’m invested in? Often, the answer is no. Keeping your focus on the long-term value of your investments helps avoid costly emotional decisions,” says Deborah Amatti.

• Aiva
• Becon IM
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