Emerging Markets May be Down, but They’re Not Out

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Emerging Markets May be Down, but They’re Not Out
    “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?”

These much-quoted words of John Maynard Keynes are appropriate in these surprising times. Back in October, I highlighted opportunities in emerging market stocks and bonds. In equities, I cited improving economic fundamentals and attractive price-to-earnings ratios, while in bonds I lauded their relatively high yields. Not anymore.

Last week our Asset Allocation Committee issued our revised asset allocation framework for global markets over the next twelve months. As a result of the unexpected victory by Donald Trump and the prospect of a unified Republican congress’s proposed economic program of lower taxes, looser regulatory burdens and increased fiscal spending, we raised our 12-month outlook for U.S. equities to slightly overweight. At the same time, we decided to lower our 12-month outlook for emerging market debt and equity.

Our new, more cautious approach towards emerging markets was driven by the realization that the environment had changed—and changed rapidly. Indeed, against a heady combination of higher US interest rates, a stronger dollar and the possibility of increasing tension over trade, we had no other option than to revisit our case for emerging markets. Investing in markets is a dynamic process. And, as Keynes observed, if a situation changes, it’s important that you have the flexibility to respond quickly.

Beyond the noise

But this change of heart is not a ‘deep sell’ mindset. There is still a robust, long-term case for investing in emerging economies and, following recent market movement, fixed income yields and equity P/E’s are more attractive than before. Indeed, while our emerging market stock and bond teams are both cautious about the short-term outlook, they continue to identify compelling opportunities within emerging markets over the longer term.

True, equities have sold off sharply and currency losses have been a major performance detractor. But it’s foolish to regard emerging markets as a monolithic block. There remain many pockets of value. Hard currency sovereign bonds, for example, are yielding 5.8% and commodities have continued their relative outperformance post the election. Indeed, over the longer term, pro-growth U.S. policies could benefit select emerging markets.

Possible trade constraints impact Latin America far more than Asia, for example. That’s because the ‘value add’ of Asian exporters is not easily replaceable. And if President Trump’s much-vaunted infrastructure spend becomes reality, this would increase the demand for select commodities and specialist engineering and technology skills. Finally, it’s also worth noting that if the US does ramp up its domestic energy and coal production, this will help emerging markets broadly as many are net consumers.

Elsewhere, China continues to be a source of concern. While the short-term position remains positive, there are risks that its recent stimulus measures have created bubbles and the devaluation of its currency is also causing anxiety, particularly in the Trump camp. Indeed, how China reacts over the next twelve months is vitally important, not just for emerging markets, but for all of us.

In the ditch

Against this backdrop, one sensible approach towards emerging market equities might be to tilt portfolios towards domestic companies trading at a reasonable price with low debt levels. This could help to minimize the threat of interest rate sensitivity and diminished global trade.

In debt markets, the Trump victory is undoubtedly having a negative impact as they experience the double-whammy of higher interest rates and growing risk aversion. However, the pickup in growth and the reduction in the account deficits of many emerging economies should help mitigate some of the downside risk.

Apart from being a renowned economist, Keynes was also an avid art collector. At the height of the First World War, he travelled to Paris to attend a fire-sale of Impressionist art. Among the paintings he purchased was one by Cézanne—Still Life with Apples. Back in England, he drove down to Sussex to visit his friends from the Bloomsbury Group. Close to their house, his car got stuck in the mud. Unable to carry all the paintings himself, Keynes left the Cézanne hidden behind a tree in a ditch, to be retrieved later.

Today, emerging markets may appear to be headed into the ditch. But they have higher average growth rates, more favorable demographics and possess better balance sheets than developed countries. Just like the Cézanne, in time they could appreciate in value.

Short Duration, Attractive Yield and Moderate Risk – a Combination that Many Investors Haven’t Seen Lately

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Duraciones cortas, rentabilidad atractiva y riesgo moderado: una combinación que muchos inversores están echando de menos
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Ana Guzzo, Flickr, Creative Commons.. Short Duration, Attractive Yield and Moderate Risk – a Combination that Many Investors Haven’t Seen Lately

Ever since the European sovereign crisis and the ECB’s strong counter measures we have witnessed yields trending down, posting record low levels over and over again. Corporate bonds are still offering attractive spreads over government bonds, but in absolute terms yields are at all-time lows. To make life even harder for portfolio managers, the ECB expanded its quantitative easing program this summer to include corporate bonds.

Undoubtedly this has been good in terms of mark-to-market performance for existing holders of ECB-eligible bonds (in general, euro-denominated investment grade rated bonds issued by non-bank corporates) but the sheer size of the program has resulted in rapid tightening in spreads and a total drain of secondary market liquidity – if you try to buy bonds of course, but selling would be easier than ever!

Are we doomed to invest in zero-yielding corporate bonds?

After a post-Brexit rally in virtually all fixed income and credit markets, investors are scratching their heads wondering where to get any yield going forward, especially if one doesn’t like to add too much duration. While interest rates are at all-time lows across the curve, extending duration (increasing interest rate risk) is not rewarding investors anymore but is increasing risk significantly.

The reason is that rates have only limited potential to go even lower and offer positive return, but when rates get higher the investor loses accumulated performance quickly. For example, investing in long bonds with modified duration of seven means that the investor loses seven percent if rates rise one percentage point. For me, it sounds like risk is quite badly skewed to the downside when even the longest of German sovereign bonds are yielding less than 0.5 percent!

All hope isn’t lost, non-rated Nordics still offer a pocket of yield

Investors looking for short duration investments have quite limited options if positive yield is desired; money market and sovereign bonds are trading by and large at negative yields, investment grade offers some spread but also has quite high interest rate risk, and high yield is very attractive relative to other fixed income classes but many investors are not willing or able to take that much credit risk. One available pocket of yield remaining is the non-rated Nordic corporate bond market.

Many non-rated Nordic companies are fundamentally very strong, well-known names in the Nordics and many of them have their equity listed in Nordic bourses. Traditionally, non-rated bonds have not been followed or owned by investors outside the Nordic countries, and as the companies are not officially rated they have been issuing bonds with hefty premium compared to their rated peers.

Even though there are more and more continental European investors involved in non-rated bonds these days than there were in the past, these bonds are trading at a very wide spread to their rated peers. One frequent explanation for spread is liquidity, but during the last few years these markets have had equally good (or bad, depending on how you look at it) liquidity. Surely the scale of credit risk is as broad as it is in a European officially rated market, but for selective investors, picking fundamentally strong companies can produce very attractive risk-adjusted returns.

I have been favoring Nordic non-rated bonds for years due to the unique combination of strong credit fundamentals and attractive valuation. Applying the same investment processes, conservative approach and discipline that are used in other credit classes has resulted in strong but stable performance over the cycles. Sooner or later masses of credit investors will expand into this market and correct the valuation difference, but until then we can continue to enjoy abnormally good carry.

Opinion column by Juhamatti Pukka, Portfolio Manager -Specializing in corporate bond portfolio management at Evli.

Brexit and Trump, a Global Trend?

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Brexit and Trump, a Global Trend?
Foto: Enrique Freire. Brexit y Trump: ¿una tendencia global?

Is the election of Donald Trump the latest example, following on from the Brexit vote and the success of Bernie Sanders and non-mainstream candidates in Europe, of a global trend in demagoguery and isolationism that will sweep all in its path, including the economies of Asia? I doubt it.

First, a psychological observation: There is a tendency to see things in the context of your own country’s experience and extrapolate that to others, even though they may be in quite different situations. For example, there seems to be a desire to see China’s housing market in the same way as one looks at what happened in the U.S. However, they are in fact quite different.

Second, a personal bugbear of mine—there’s also the tendency to view developments in Asia as always being derivatives of what has happened in the U.S. But Asia is home to over half the world’s people. Its politics are determined at home, just as its economic growth is determined at home.

So, how to make sense of the recent shifts in political power? Well, I know how I see it. I try to understand the economic environment first. Then, I see if we have a roadmap that shows us where people’s economic interests lie and whether that explains current political decisions. So here are my two assumptions: 1) the West is in a depression-like economy or what feels like depression because of the slow growth in demand and wages; Asia is still growing at a healthy clip, in nominal terms. 2) The General Theory, written in the 1930s by Lord Keynes, gives us a pretty good roadmap for understanding the forces at play.

And what are those forces?

Well, in a world of low interest rates, when central banks have given up on being able to stimulate demand, deflation (or disinflation) rules. Wages stagnate. Employment is lackluster. Without wage growth, people feel they are stagnating. And as low rates propel asset markets higher, the difference between the haves and have-nots, and the manual laborer and the equity owner, seem cut in especially sharp relief. In addition, the normal rules of economic policymaking are reversed—monetary policy takes a back seat to fiscal policy; protectionism supports demand rather than causing inefficiencies; productivity gains lead to unemployment rather than spurring growth. The government is forced to “socialize investment” because private enterprise will not invest at a high enough rate to secure full employment. This is the Keynesian playbook. You may or may not agree with it, but you can see in it key elements of policy shared by Trump, Sanders, Brexit supporters, and even Hillary Clinton. It can be seen in the trend of isolationist sentiments and stances against the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the North American Free Trade Agreement and support of massive infrastructure spending, and the key role played by the votes of the forgotten “manufacturing workers” in the U.S. election.

But then, there is no reason to suspect that these political trends of the West will be mirrored in Asia. For Asia has high interest rates and robust wage growth. Asia has room to further grow productivity. Chinese families are chasing their version of the American dream. Southeast Asia is embarking on a build-up of its manufacturing base. The middle class in Asia is growing and developing. In the Philippines, you may question how a leader like President Rodrigo Duterte came to power with populist policies, but his strongman style is not exactly a deviation from the likes of former rulers Ferdinand Marcos and Joseph Estrada. Surely, there are income inequalities in the region, but with growth spread across Asia’s classes and countries, the political strains, whilst not absent, are nowhere near as acute.

So, there is no need for Asia to have the same kind of political reaction; no need for it to react to protectionism by igniting a trade war; no need to abandon the traditional economic logic of raising productivity to spur growth. And by and large, Asian voters have put in place reformist governments intent on following these mainstream economic policies. Yes, there is the potential for U.S. and European isolationism to increase—perhaps the world will divide itself into blocs along these lines, leaving Asia as a distinct and separate bloc of capitalist growth. Perhaps this has consequences for how asset allocators might view the world. But it does little to undermine the basic view of what will drive the growth in Asian living standards—or how we will seek to invest in them.

Column by Robert Horrocks, CIO at Mathews Asia

Back to the Future: Trump and Trade

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Back to the Future: Trump and Trade

Insisting on the rules is not the same as refusing to play the game.

I spend a lot of time on the road visiting Neuberger Berman clients around the world. In June, I had the good fortune to be in London at the time of the “Brexit” vote. I was able to witness for myself this dramatic political event as it unfolded and also see it from the perspective of our clients. Earlier this month, I was in the Middle East at the time of the U.S. election. Again, I was able to experience another landmark event through the eyes of our clients.

As an American investor in the Middle East, clients sought my counsel on the implications of Donald Trump’s victory. The latter part of my trip, therefore, was largely spent helping them lay out a road map as to what might happen next.

Both political parties made many wild promises during the U.S. election campaign — it’s called politics and it’s what people do when they want to get elected. But now that the gun smoke is beginning to clear, it’s time to take a more sober look at how this could play out.

Those of us old enough to remember the Ronald Reagan years will recall a film called Back to the Future. Starring Michael J. Fox, it was the highest grossing film of 1985 and, reportedly, one of Reagan’s favorite films. The reference to Back to the Future is instructive. Fast-forward over 30 years, and I believe where we are now has many parallels with the Reagan era. And I don’t mean we’ll all be driving DeLorean cars, although a recent press article indicated that this iconic automobile will come back into production in 2017, not in Northern Ireland, but in Humble, Texas.
Regime Change

In my opinion, Donald Trump’s election marks a fundamental shift away from an era that has been dominated by central bank policy. In some respects, it accelerates a process that was already underway. People have been waking up to the limitations of monetary policy for a while now, but this represents a seismic shift away from that approach.

So what will replace it? The answer, I believe, is a much more business-friendly America, keen to generate growth, create jobs and, in some cases, generate a little more price inflation. Underpinning this will be a greater emphasis on fiscal policy to drive change. Witness, for example, the huge focus in the Trump program on infrastructure projects. Initially, there’ll likely be more attention to domestic issues, such as taxation and the reform (or repeal) of the Affordable Care Act. But in time, the focus will move overseas.

When I talked about these issues with our clients and colleagues in the Middle East last week, one of their biggest concerns was the potentially negative impact of a Trump victory on trade relations. In response, I told them to keep a close eye on the team that Donald Trump assembles around him.

Rock Star CEO

In my view, the appointment of Paul Ryan for a second term as speaker is a good first step. He knows how to operate the levers of power and is viewed as a unifying force. Indeed, he described his appointment as “the dawn of a new, unified Republican government.”

But for greater insights into the issue of trade, I pointed them in the direction of a book entitled American Made. This was written by Dan DiMicco, chairman and former CEO of Charlotte-based Nucor, America’s largest steel company. DiMicco is a rock star CEO who delivered a 720% return to shareholders over his tenure, from 2000 to 2012, in one of the world’s toughest businesses. He also acted as Trump’s trade adviser during the election campaign and is currently leading the transition team on all trade appointments.

DiMicco advocates the return of a more activist approach to world trade and commerce, similar to the approach that prevailed during the Reagan administration. He’s not anti-trade; he simply wants other countries to play by the rules when it comes to trade agreements and he has been most vocal about this in relation to China. DiMicco is a key member of the transition team, so what he has to say carries much weight. His book provides many useful pointers as to what could happen over the next few years.

The DiMicco narrative is nothing to be afraid of. He’s as much in favor of free markets and trade as any other business person. But he believes there should be greater controls and limits, as there were 30 years ago. And for those who remember the Reagan era, they’ll recall that it ushered in a period of rapid growth and great economic prosperity, not just for the U.S. but internationally as well. Back to the future, indeed!

Neuberger Berman’s CIO insight

Shock or Awe?

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Shock or Awe?

The people saw the economy in a malaise. Is a Trump the remedy?

Much of the world woke up Wednesday morning of last week and was shocked. But should it have been? Markets do not like surprises, so it was understandable that the overnight reaction as Tuesday’s election results came in was negative. However, the markets seemed to discount the surprise quickly, cutting through the noise and seeing some cause for optimism.

What caused the remarkable turnaround in sentiment? President-Elect Donald Trump’s measured acceptance speech helped. But perhaps the markets finally saw some of what Trump’s supporters had been seeing all along.

The Malaise Our Economy Is In

A lot of mainstream commentary describes Trump voters, as well as others such as “Brexiteers”, as unschooled at best, xenophobic at worst, or simply unaware of where their interests truly lie. But maybe last week’s result showed that these voters have a deeper understanding of the malaise that the world’s economies are in than the global “elites”.

There are forces, such as globalization and technology, that are changing our economy and there is very little politicians can do about that. However, the lack of any meaningful fiscal policies to help enhance global growth has been a frustration to many. In previous CIO Weekly Perspectives we have discussed why monetary policy alone cannot get us out of this slow-growth environment. Our current 1-2% growth rate is not going to drive stronger income growth and the increased economic mobility that people want and need.

The electorate seems to have figured this out and was willing to overlook the personal flaws of Donald Trump to support a different game plan. They seem to have concluded that the game plan Secretary Clinton was proposing was more of the same. We shall see—but so far the markets seem to support the voters’ instincts.

What’s Next?

My colleagues and I held a webinar early on Wednesday to discuss the election’s outcome. Most of our points are summarized here, but our simple message was that we believe the result should be good for equities and bad for bonds. The market’s reaction, at least so far, is consistent with that view.

Why? We think that an increase in fiscal spending, particularly related to infrastructure and corporate tax reform, is achievable, and could have support from both sides of the U.S. Congress. In addition, significant regulatory reform should help spur business to invest more and unleash the proverbial “animal instincts”. It’s worth noting that we are leaving behind an administration that had fewer staff with private-sector experience than any other in recent history. Medium-sized companies in the energy, utilities, healthcare and financial sectors could benefit a lot from being unshackled from some of the well-intentioned, but ultimately obstructive, regulation that has come their way over the past 10 years.

Keep An Eye on Anti-Trade Sentiment

One area to watch closely is trade. In our view much of Trump’s platform is pro-growth, with the exception of trade. Anti-trade sentiment, in the U.S. and other developed market economies, could have a very negative effect on global growth. Policies such as renegotiating NAFTA, fighting TPP or increasing auto tariffs could set off a domino effect across the globe. How these policies and agreements get worked out will be telling. An early indication will be who Trump appoints as the new U.S. Trade Representative.

But we would reiterate that, while Trump’s “Contract with the American People” certainly contains anti-trade policies, it is otherwise a recognizably Republican program for shrinking government, lowering corporate taxes, reducing regulation and limiting the lobbying power of big business, combined with a fiscal stimulus targeting infrastructure.

Sentiment shouldn’t swing from despair to euphoria too quickly, of course. Trump doesn’t have a magic wand to wave on January 20th. Even if it were clear what the President needed to do, infrastructure takes time to build, reform takes time to agree on, and, keep in mind, more than half of the people who voted last week did not support this administration. But at least now there is no doubt that the people see that our economy is in a malaise—and that is the first step towards providing a remedy.

Neuberger Berman’s CIO insight

Can Capital Spending Pick Up the Slack From a Weakening Consumer?

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¿Puede el gasto de capital repuntar el déficit de un consumidor que se debilita?
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Yann Gar. Can Capital Spending Pick Up the Slack From a Weakening Consumer?

I often think of consumer spending and industrial production as the yin and yang of the U.S. economy. In the years since the financial crisis, I am struck by the juxtaposition of the resilience of the consumer against the weakness on the industrial and manufacturing side of the economy.

Now, however, there are troubling signs that the consumer is coming under pressure. “Something bad is going on that we can’t explain.” This quote about the U.S. consumer was spoken to us recently by the management of a home-goods retailer. Dramatic? Yes, but not atypical of what we are hearing from other consumer companies. For example, Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz said the company has never in one quarter seen a convergence of social and political turmoil at home, weakening consumer confidence and increasing global uncertainty.

Digging into the numbers a bit, recent data don’t tell an upbeat story either. For example, half of retailers reported negative year-over-year same-store sales growth in the second quarter of 2016 .

Of course, traditional retail is facing structural challenges from e-commerce and the continuing rise of Amazon. But there’s something else going on here.

Does a flagging consumer mean the stock market can’t continue to move higher? Of course not. In fact, there are some reasons to hope that the industrial sector and a rebound in capital expenditure (CapEx) might pick up the slack from the U.S. consumer.

It is widely mentioned that consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy. However, consumer spending has contributed only 20% of the variation in GDP growth over the past five years. Meanwhile, private investment, which accounts for less than 20% of output, has contributed 52% of the variation in growth.

Yes, consumer spending is a huge part of the economy, but it might be the wrong place to focus right now. Productive capital, or spending on plant and equipment, may be a small part of the economy, but it is much more volatile than consumer spending. This makes sense intuitively. To take a simple example, consumers at the grocery store might spend slightly more on higher-priced items if they feel confident. But they won’t double their consumption of food.

CapEx is different. Companies can fairly quickly change their capital spending if their outlook changes. Because business spending is more volatile, a pickup can meaningfully swing the economy’s trajectory.

In other words, CapEx is where the real action is for the economy, and it’s been missing during the muted recovery.

There are several reasons for this.

First, in the wake of the financial crisis, investors have rewarded companies that generated free cash flow, dividends and buybacks. Investors have wanted yield and haven’t been enthusiastic about companies making expensive, long-term investments. We’ve also seen more industries with a relatively small number of large companies that have kept supply and capacity constrained, avoiding market share fights. Finally, in many industries, regulation has become a much more significant factor in recent years. That has forced companies to divert resources inwardly and raised uncertainty about the long-term outlook for their businesses.

Overall, it’s been a tough slog for the manufacturing sector. A rising U.S. dollar has hurt exports, falling oil prices have hit energy companies and auto sales have pulled back, albeit from record 2015 levels. The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has been hovering around 50, indicating flattish growth.

Overall, companies have cut back on spending and didn’t invest in new plant and equipment. Looking at the macro data such as ISM and shipping, things are soft.

But there may be reasons to hope. The November election will bring clarity and potentially policies that support growth in the industrial economy. These policies may include repatriation of a significant portion of the $2 trillion of overseas cash, reductions in the U.S. federal corporate tax rate from 35%, infrastructure spending and reduced regulation. The best-case scenario would be a virtuous circle of increased capital spending, which would boost productivity and lead to stronger economic growth.

Bottom line: A pickup of investment in productive capital is what’s needed more than debt-fueled consumer spending.

Column by Edward J. Perkin CIO at Capital Eaton Vance Management.

Trump Vote Wrong- Foots Forecasters

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Trump: los pronósticos se equivocaron y eso podría provocar mayor volatilidad en los mercados
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Sam Valadi. Trump Vote Wrong- Foots Forecasters

The result of the US presidential election, like that of the UK referendum on the EU, went against the predictions of most opinion pollsters, who had put Hilary Clinton, the Democratic candidate, slightly ahead prior to the actual vote. What currently seems the likely victory of Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, was in defiance not only of the pollsters, but also of many investors’ expectations.

Overturning predictions, Trump won key swing states of Florida, Ohio and North Carolina on his path to the White House. Forecasters have been wrong-footed, and there could be increased volatility in markets while investors digest this new information, and wrestle to understand the implications of a Trump presidency.

Trump is in many ways an unknown quantity, and his presidency could spell a period of uncertainty for investors. We shall be monitoring markets closely, but it would be reasonable to expect, in the short term at least, a sell-off in equities, not only in the US but also internationally. The immediate reaction of equity markets was negative, with Asian indices falling. The US dollar also fell, down 3.4% against the Yen as at 5:20am London time.

The dollar has come under pressure, both because a hike in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve now seems less likely, and also because investors may place a higher risk premium on US investments. Volatility across many asset classes could increase in the short-term.

Looking further ahead, several of Trump’s policies, for example his protectionism, his desire to scrap existing international trade deals, and to deport illegal immigrants, have the potential to contribute to longer-term market volatility; but others, for example his plans to slash taxes, including reducing the business rate from 35% to 15%, his plans to encourage repatriation of corporate profits held offshore, and to embark on massive infrastructure spending, could stimulate the US economy, lifting equities. Much is uncertain, not least because his campaign promises have been long on rhetoric and short on policy detail.

Given the intense degree of attention on the election, and its undoubted political importance, it may seem surprising that within the global equities team at OMGI we made no attempt to predict its result. We are not in the business of trying to predict events that are very hard to predict. Striving to forecast a binary (either/ or) event such as a close-run election is, in our view, not a good way to invest. We have built our investment process on other –we believe sounder– principles.

Macro events and geopolitical events, like the US election, affect our investment process implicitly rather than explicitly. They impact the market, and this is the key for us. We are much more interested in how the market is behaving because that gives us the clues as to how we should position our portfolios.

A Stable Process

Our investment process involves developing a view of how the stock market is behaving. We have to be very aware of the direction of the market, the volatility of the market, and of the ways in which individual stocks’ returns differ from each other. How, and to what degree, do stock returns vary from each other? How great is investors’ appetite for taking risk? Are investors comfortable exposing themselves to higher degrees of risk, in the hope of achieving higher returns, or are they much more risk averse, shunning risk and seeking the safety of stocks of higher quality? Those kinds of questions are being asked all the time within our portfolio investment process. That leads us to the stocks that we will want to buy.

US Equities Not Cheap

Recently, US equities have generally not been cheap in valuation terms, though many of the companies in this market are high quality, so one might expect to pay a higher price. Parts of the US market are particularly expensive relative to the average. For example, large caps (shares in larger companies) tend to be more expensive than small- and mid-caps (shares in small and medium-sized companies): this is partly because large caps are international, but also because they receive large inflows from investment funds that track indices (the largest of which track baskets of large caps). Other areas of the market that have become more expensive are dividend payers (shares which pay out high levels of dividends to shareholders), and low volatility (shares which move up and down less than the overall stock market).

In my view, active managers have a great opportunity at the moment because there is a lot of mispricing in North America. Although North America as a whole is not cheap, there are cheap areas of North America that can be exploited by investors who are nimble enough.

Ian Heslop is Head Of Global Equities at Old Mutual Global Investors and Manager of the Old Mutual North American Equity Fund.

The Morning After: What Now For Markets?

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El día después: ¿Qué pasará ahora en los mercados?
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Bradley Weber. The Morning After: What Now For Markets?

In a shocking development reminiscent of Brexit, Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, was elected the forty-fifth president of the United States on Tuesday, 8 November. In addition, Republicans maintained control over both houses of Congress.

Trump’s unexpected victory brings with it a great deal of policy uncertainty, given his lack of specificity during the presidential campaign. Judging by the tone of his campaign, one can surmise that foreign trade will likely be a major focus of the new administration. It is quite unlikely that the Trans-Pacific Partnership will be ratified against the present backdrop, while the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) could be renegotiated or even abandoned. Uncertainty over immigration policy is likely in the near term, which could potentially impact labor markets.

On the campaign trail, President-Elect Trump vowed to lower taxes and repeal the Medicare tax on investment income. He also promised to repeal the complicated alternative minimum tax, while taxing carried interest as ordinary income. Corporate tax rates would be reduced to 15% from 35%, and repatriated foreign profits would be taxed at a one-time rate of 10%, if Trump’s plan is enacted. Economists, however, question whether this package would spur enough economic growth to offset lost revenue from lower tax rates, which could widen fiscal deficits.

Sectors that may be advantaged under a Trump presidency include:

  • Fossil fuels: Trump repeatedly promoted US energy independence during the campaign, calling for leasing federal land for energy exploration, repealing some regulations on coal and reviving the Keystone XL pipeline project.
  • Pharmaceuticals: Price controls will be less of a concern for the industry than they would have been under a Clinton presidency.
  • Financials: Trump has called for repealing or significantly revising Dodd-Frank. Regulatory burdens could be reduced across the economy, based on his campaign rhetoric.

Trump’s focus on trade during the campaign and the risk that NAFTA might be revisited could pressure the currencies of two of the US’s largest trading partners, Mexico and Canada. Additionally, emerging market currencies will likely be pressured, since any additional US trade barriers would probably further slow the growth of global trade, which could negatively impact both producers of raw materials and of finished goods.

If the US puts trade barriers in place on imports, US exporters may be hurt as a result of trade partners retaliating against US actions. With roughly 40% of earnings from S&P 500 Index companies earned outside the US, there appear to be significant risks to US-based multinationals. A full-fledged trade war would be damaging to growth and employment, and could have ripple effects beyond US borders. Companies whose business is more domestic in nature may fare better against a backdrop of global trade friction. If financial markets have a persistently negative reaction to a Trump victory in the run-up to the December FOMC meeting, odds of an interest rate hike could shrink.

A front-loaded agenda

Given the political ebbs and flows of recent decades, it is reasonable to expect Republicans to try to pack as much policy change into the first two years of a Trump presidency as possible, much as Democrats did in the first two years of the Obama administration. In 2009–2010, Democrats controlled the White House and both houses of Congress and passed a large economic stimulus package and the Affordable Care Act. Oftentimes, when one party controls both Congress and the White House, voters perceive political overreach and seek to balance the scales during the midterm elections.

In 1994, President Bill Clinton’s Democrats lost both the House and the Senate and never regained congressional control during the balance of his two terms. Losing control of one or both houses in the midterms would limit Trump’s ability to achieve his agenda, suggesting that policy change could become more incremental later in his term. 

Erik Weisman is Chief Economist at MFS.

 

 

 

 

Steering Portfolios Through the Current Uncertainty

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Steering Portfolios Through the Current Uncertainty

With the U.S. election now just 24 hours away, I’ve been recalling what it was like to sit in a car with each of my three teenage children when they were learning how to drive.

Quite early on you tackle the principles of steering safely. My advice was an exhortation to “Aim high!” whenever I sensed that eyes were drifting down toward the dashboard or out toward the sidewalk.

It’s counterintuitive advice—but that’s why it’s so useful. Your attention is inevitably drawn to the potential obstacles and dangers closest to you, in the foreground of your vision. But let it stay there and you end up swerving rather than steering, careering toward one obstacle as you try to avoid another. “Aim high,” keeping your eyes on the middle of the road well ahead of you, and you drive smoothly on your way.

On the Nature of Uncertainty

This is a paradox we’ve tackled in a few of our recent CIO Perspectives. Investors have a lot of politics clouding their peripheral vision right now. It’s not as though politics are irrelevant to investment portfolios, any more than sidewalks and parked cars are irrelevant to the learning driver. But the safest way to address them is to acknowledge that they are there while looking past them, focusing on the long-term center ground to which they are likely to converge rather than the short-term extremes where they now sit.

This is the nature of events loaded with uncertainty. In the lead-up to such events and in the immediate aftermath, the uncertainty is high; as time passes, some of that uncertainty diminishes.

For example, it’s now 20 weeks since the Brexit referendum. Before the vote, uncertainty was high, and in the immediate aftermath, the U.K. government’s position that “Brexit means Brexit” kept us guessing. But by last week we had an important High Court judgment that, while adding uncertainty to the timing of the U.K.’s exit from the European Union, reduced the uncertainty around the type of exit it might be—more “soft” than “hard.”

Tomorrow’s Election Results Are Only the Start

Faced with events of extreme uncertainty that diminish over time, the investors who drive most smoothly are usually the ones who recognize that their greatest advantage is their long-term time horizon.

I suspect this will be one of the main messages to come out of a webinar that Joe Amato, Tony Tutrone and I will hold on Wednesday to discuss our initial thoughts on tomorrow’s U.S. election results.

By then, we should have more information than we do now, but it’s not a certainty. The shape of Congress will be clearer. But the presidential election polls are close and one candidate has been calling the integrity of the process into question; recall that it took a month to confirm who won in 2000.

As I suggested back in February, when Brexit and candidate Trump still seemed like low-probability outcomes, exploiting your long-term time horizon in an environment like today’s involves hedging specific risks where possible, reducing whole-portfolio risk, and taking contrarian positions when market pricing moves too far. Those able to adopt options strategies can almost literally sell short-term uncertainty in exchange for long-term certainty via put writing. I believe that’s a compelling opportunity at the moment.

In other words, “aim high.” The time to hold fast to rational argument, a calm outlook and high principles is precisely when others are swayed by innuendo, hyperbole and low rhetoric. While they swerve from one outrageous revelation to the next, we can look further down the road to the time when the checks and balances of the political and the economic systems have restored some equilibrium. If you ever learned to drive, you know it’s the right thing to do.

Neuberger Berman’s CIO insight by Erik L. Knutzen

Tax: Avoidance is Not a Dirty Word

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Tax: Avoidance is Not a Dirty Word

My mother-in-law, may she rest in peace, used to say that the truth would always out (I never got to know if she had me in mind) but the truth is that we’ve been having something of an unlucky time in Europe these last few years. There’s a wonderful Spanish proverb which, roughly translated goes: (we’re so unlucky that), were we to buy a circus, the dwarves in the act would start to grow taller.

On the one hand, there’s the United Kingdom which seems determined to tell the rest of Europe to go to hell. Brexit reminded me of that famous headline in the ‘30s in The Times “Fog in the Channel – Europe Isolated”.

If Brexit and the single currency crisis weren’t enough, now we have a storm gathering around the whole issue of international tax.

Let’s put to one side, just for now, the imminent Common Reporting Standard (CRS) and go back to fundamental principles, first articulated in the 1930s which, despite the obvious barbarism of that time, now looks, from the perspective of the international tax planner, like an age of enlightenment. It was the noble Lord Tomlin who, in the case IRC v. Duke of Westminster (1936), famously said:

“Every man is entitled if he can to arrange his affairs so that the tax attaching under the appropriate Acts is less than it otherwise would be. If he succeeds in ordering them so as to secure that result, then, however unappreciative the Commissioners of Inland Revenue or his fellow taxpayers may be of his ingenuity, he cannot be compelled to pay an increased tax”

Two years before, the Learned Hand J made a similar pronouncement in Helvering v. Gregory (1934). A man, he said, may quite legally arrange his affairs with the objective of paying the least amount of tax possible and, in doing so; “there is not even a patriotic duty to increase one’s taxes”.

It might be argued that these are sentiments and principles of a by-gone age or that it’s unique to English jurisprudence. Even if that were the case, the fact is that at least in the sphere of Anglo-Saxon tax planning, this is the fundamental principle on which legions of professionals have based their advice and plans in the intervening decades and legitimately sought to achieve for clients the objective to minimise tax due.

I may indeed risk the accusation of being out of touch but I’m nonetheless ready to proclaim that tax avoidance is not only legal and sinless (and remains so, despite CRS etc) but also ticks all three boxes for that sweet dream I saw over a market shop in Spain recently: Bueno, Bonito y Barato. It gets a little lost in translation but essentially, it’s (relatively) Cheap, Attractive and, on the whole, a darn Good Thing.

Before anyone says otherwise, let’s be clear that I’m talking about tax avoidance and not tax evasion. If you don’t know the difference, the internet is quite clear about it.

In this context, perhaps inevitably our thoughts must turn to the recent Apple versus the European Union case. In case you haven’t heard, the European Commission, an un-elected civil service, held on the 30th August 2016 that Apple Inc which is legally established in the Republic of Ireland, had numerous employees in that country and a written agreement with the sovereign Government of that Republic, had to pay no less than €13 billion in back taxes. It’ll be even more than that when interest is taken into account.

Following this unfortunate circumstance, Apple, with some justification, felt miffed. The Irish, too, were apparently hacked off at the thought of having to accept a cheque for the equivalent of 6.25% of their entire annual GDP. It’s tempting to think of a number of European countries who, in their shoes, cheque in hand, would have been dancing, laughing and toasting the good health of the Commission all the way to the bank.

But, assuming the Irish were genuinely upset, they, and Apple naturally, had every right to be so. The notion that a company, much as those involved in IRC v. Duke of Westminster or Helvering v. Gregory, no longer has the right to so order its affairs so as to pay the minimum amount of tax seems not so much the self-evident injustice that it is as something much more serious. It’s a heist.

A rhetorical question: how many countries and governments continue to have serious economic problems and crises around the world? In Europe, these are magnified by specific local problems.

Firstly, there is the notion that the conflagration affecting monetary “union” has been put out. Far from it. The fire is still blazing but it’s being contained in back rooms and dark places. The fireman has put on his Sunday best in an effort to convince the world that he’s off duty but the reality is that, in the background, he’s chucking everything he can at the fire because he ran out of water ages ago.

Secondly, even though Euro-governments would have us believe otherwise or the media have moved on from it, the crisis of migration to Europe from Africa and the Middle East shows no sign of stopping and the cost of that is going to be huge.

Thirdly, and possibly the most important aspect in this context, governments are locked in competition with each other to increase their revenues. They called it “harmful tax competition” and we thought it was about us when, actually, they’re the ones competing. How much is the US trying to fine Deutsche Bank? Is it anywhere close to €13billion?

As politics goes, it’s got to be the easiest game in town. Whacking the rich who legitimately try to avoid tax, using the same laws that you have yourself passed, is easier than taking candy from the kid in the proverb. Nowadays, nobody cares if the rich get knocked on the head. On the contrary, envy is, alas, the spirit of the age.

Politicians, the media, commentators, – left and right wing and the centre – all use words like “privacy” and “offshore” to mean “illegitimate secrecy” as if arranging your affairs in private automatically implies you’re a gangster. The day is surely coming when we will all need to file our tax returns on our Facebook page or send the Revenue a Whatsapp every time we want to do a deal or arrange a transaction.

Rather than holding up MNCs as the economic pillars on which the capitalist system is built and through which jobs are created, wealth is generated, delivering cash to employees, shareholders and, without a shred of irony, governments themselves, “big business” and similar terms seem also to have become euphemisms for illegitimate and grasping commercial practice.

The Apple case is a serious problem because, even though the Commission came to that view in accordance with the EU’s own standards and norms, it telegraphs the message to the world that in today’s Europe you cannot come to an agreement with a national government and be secure that it’s unequivocally certain.

Tax planners and those, like Abacus Gibraltar, who implement their plans, have no shortage of clients – that in itself tells a story. Neither are we afraid of having to do it transparently and without the aim of hiding the result, always respecting the right to privacy, because we’ve always done it like that.

Even though we live in an age of exhibitionism and the zeitgeist is not to think about things too much or too deeply, the reality is that for so long as there are laws for the payment of tax, someone somewhere is going to sit down and see what can be done to use them as the skeleton of an alternative plan.

This IS a big deal because my mother-in-law was right: truth is not subjective. To write off as criminals all of us who undertake this kind of work for clients is simply a lie. We all know that the real problem is dirty money, hidden away or used for immoral or illegal purposes, like drug-trafficking, terrorism and war. The blood of millions of Africans, for instance, cries out above the illicit gains of brutal dictators, tucked away in countries like Switzerland over the decades. The dishonesty lies in not tackling that, rather than trying to make it an issue of utility bills, passport copies and tax avoidance structures for the legitimately prosperous.

So, governments will always look for an ever-bigger tax take but there will similarly always be, by logical deduction, honest, legal and transparent avoidance

I’ll dare to go further. Offshore financial centres, from the smallest Caribbean island to the really big ones like Delaware, Luxembourg and The Netherlands, via the Channel Islands and Gibraltar, are an important and necessary conduit for international capital flows and the conduct and interchange of global commerce.

Still further. All those of us who do this work and those who buy the results of it still have the constitutional right to privacy and, dare one say it, secrecy. It’s a legitimate and morally justifiable part of being in business. Last time I looked, privacy had not yet been abolished.

So, Bueno, Bonito y, por general, Barato.

I may be a dinosaur but I’m not embarrassed about what I and my fellow professionals do. And to Apple I would say: Come to Gibraltar. We may be small but we will get the job done.

Column by Christopher Pitaluga, Abacus’ CEO