Nervousness Causes Market Collapse: Was it Really That Bad?

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U.S. employment data and the rate hike by the Bank of Japan sparked widespread nervousness worldwide, leading to declines in all major global stock markets. However, the question that arises for analysis is whether the dramatism of the chain sales was premature and whether what is happening this Monday is just a temporary “perfect storm.”

For James Eagle, founder of Eeagli, it was a perfect storm based on inflation fears, less hope for interest rate cuts, concerns about the upcoming U.S. elections, and global tensions, as he posted on LinkedIn. Additionally, the renowned content creator said that if you add to that scenario that some tech stocks have reached all-time highs, you get an ideal recipe for market nervousness.

“All you need now is an excuse to panic. And we got it,” Eagle summarized.

On the other hand, Tiffany Wilding, an economist at PIMCO, reviewed the employment data released last week, with a figure lower than “expected and further proof that the U.S. economy is slowing down,” she said in a statement accessed by Funds Society. However, the unemployment rate rose to 4.25% unrounded, nearly reaching the so-called Sahm rule, which in the past has been a reliable indicator of recession.

According to Wilding, although the main figures were weaker than expected and certainly reflect a slowing economy, there are some exceptions in the details that show it has not yet sunk.

For PIMCO, this consolidates a Fed rate cut in September and increases the risk that the Fed will revise its forecasts to signal a faster pace of cuts in the future. In this regard, the upcoming employment report and the recovery from July’s weakness will be key to setting the tone for the Fed’s September meeting, Wilding concludes.

Meanwhile, Fernando Marengo, Chief Economist at BlackToro Global Wealth Management, told Funds Society that last week’s data shows a soft landing scenario. And this outlook is not the most favorable for stock valuations in the tech sector, which had implied continued sales growth.

Furthermore, Marengo explained that the new macroeconomic data and equity values, which had been rising steadily since the fourth quarter of last year, prompted some of the market to take profits. At the same time, the professional warned about a “flight to quality.”

“Clearly, those who made a big profit are trying to capitalize on that gain in the face of a new scenario of uncertainty: first of slowdown and now of uncertainty, because the drop in asset prices clearly has an impact on families, there is a loss of wealth in the drop in assets,” he summarized, noting that a recession cannot be ruled out and that increases nervousness in the markets.

However, he also believes that these soft landing levels are not worrisome either.

“The Fed is fulfilling its dual mandate, full employment with price control. This would not justify a cut in monetary policy rates. Now, if the capital market crisis deepens and this starts to have an impact on the balance sheet of some sector of the economy, it will surely be necessary for the Fed to take action. Otherwise, we will have to wait for the September session,” he insisted.

BlackToro has been recommending for “some time” to reduce risk exposure and primarily invest in fixed income. Marengo explained that the strategy is “to make rates on the short end of the curve and extend duration on the treasury bond curve.”

“Since May, we started rotating our portfolio, we started moving out of the more aggressive stocks and moving into more defensive sectors. We moved out of tech and went into more value, much more defensive companies. Therefore, our portfolios are capitalizing on our strategies that we had been seeing from our teams,” he added.

The executive argued that it will always depend on the profile of each investor, but he maintained that it is not a time to take risks and wait “until uncertainty and volatility decrease.”

In another opinion, Santiago Ulloa, Managing Partner of We Family Offices, also thought that the market reaction was “exaggerated, accelerated by systematic trading as stop losses were surpassed.”

However, for Ulloa, based in Miami, the Fed will have to accelerate and increase rate cuts compared to what was thought a few months ago.

Regarding investment recommendations at this time, Ulloa told Funds Society that it depends a lot on their current asset diversification.

“I think any move has to be prudent, but for those who are not in the stock market and want to be, it could be a good time to start buying gradually. In any case, volatility will continue, and one must look at the long-term strategy for each person,” he concluded.

Triple Event: Data Will Guide the Decisions of the Fed, BoE, and BoJ

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On Wednesday and Thursday, there will be a triple event for central banks: the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hold their respective monetary policy meetings. Each institution faces its own challenges and has its messages for the market. However, they all have one thing in common: dependence on the evolution of macro data, particularly inflation.

In the case of the Fed, everything indicates that it will maintain interest rates in this upcoming meeting, which will be interpreted as preparing for a possible first cut in September. However, things are not as clear for the Bank of England (BoE), where the sentiment for a possible cut is only 50%, despite what the data suggests. Lastly, experts explain that this BoJ meeting is important because it will provide more details on the plan to reduce the asset purchase program (QT), the next step to normalize monetary policy. The main conclusion is that there will be no rate hike, as it will be a gradual process to give the market time to digest the bonds and avoid a spike in yields.

The Fed in the US

According to Christiaan Tuntono, senior economist for Asia Pacific at Allianz Global Investors, the prospect of a rate cut in the US and the rebound in demand for semiconductors and electronics, in general, are currently very favorable factors for part of the Asian economy and many local equity markets. “In this sense, we expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged next week but to acknowledge the improvement in US inflation, which could open the door to a rate cut by the end of the summer,” Tuntono points out.

Regarding the importance of data, Pramod Atluri, manager at Capital Group, highlights that “the US economy has largely adapted to this new interest rate environment, and I expect growth to remain above 2% in 2024.” In his opinion, this resilience shown by the US economy has led investors to adjust their expectations regarding interest rates. Although Atluri believes that the arguments for future rate cuts are no longer as evident, the central bank seems inclined towards cuts.

In this regard, the views and analysis from international managers coincide with Tuntono Atluri’s assessment. There is also a consensus in interpreting the latest macro data from the country. “Although the labor market shows clear signs of normalization and recent consumer inflation data has been relatively positive, the central bank has been encouraged by macroeconomic data several times over the past 18 months, only to later discover that the economy continued to operate at an excessive pace. Therefore, it is likely that the Fed will argue that it is prudent to observe the next six weeks of data to clearly validate the need for policy easing,” says Erik Weisman, chief economist at MFS Investment Management.

However, in his opinion, more important than what the Fed does in the next month and a half is how the market will gauge the subsequent pace of rate cuts and the eventual landing zone. “The magical soft landing of 1995 was achieved with only 75 basis points of rate cuts, and some argue that we will see a repeat of that episode in the next six months or so. However, the market expects the Fed to cut between 175 and 200 basis points before the first quarter of 2026,” estimates Weisman.

Regarding when the Fed’s first rate cut will be, managers’ analyses also point to the same timeline: September. “We believe that this week’s data, especially the 0.18% month-over-month core PCE and the signs of cooling shelter inflation, continue to reinforce our view that the first cut will occur in September. We expect a moderate hold at the Fed meeting, with Powell indicating during the press conference that a first cut is likely to happen quite soon if data continues to evolve as expected,” says Greg Wilensky, director of US Fixed Income and Portfolio Manager at Janus Henderson.

“The lower inflation rates of the past three months should pave the way for a rate cut in September. This is likely to be reflected in the meeting’s conclusions, as the Committee is expected to ensure that confidence in inflation evolving sustainably towards 2% has strengthened and emphasize that the risks to employment and inflation objectives are now balanced. Powell is likely to use his speech at Jackson Hole next month to outline the framework for the easing cycle and remind investors that the Fed will likely lower rates gradually once it begins,” adds Raphael Olszyna-Marzys, international economist at J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable AM.

For his part, Brendan Murphy, head of North American Fixed Income at Insight Investment (part of BNY Investments), expects the committee’s official statement to include some modest changes, reflecting how their key inflation metrics are now close to the target and the labor market shows signs of slowing down. “The central bank may be concerned about a potential sudden deterioration in the labor market at some point, so we expect most members to prefer acting soon to ensure a soft landing for the economy. Chairman Powell could also use next month’s Jackson Hole Symposium to set expectations for the rate-cutting cycle,” comments Murphy.

Looking at the United Kingdom

A completely different case from the US is the Bank of England (BoE). According to Katrin Loehken, economist for the UK and Japan at DWS, the outcome of the BoE’s upcoming meeting on Thursday is not clear at all. “The market expects a rate cut with just over 50% probability, and we also anticipate a reduction in the official rate from 5.25% to 5%. However, uncertainty is high because there are good arguments for both sides,” says Loehken.

In this sense, she explains that if most members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) place more emphasis on a prudent and data-dependent assessment of the current situation, the negative surprise in service price inflation in July would be an argument against a rate cut, as would the slow decline in wage dynamics. “With a wait-and-see attitude, nothing wrong would be done in that case. Chief Economist Pill seems to be in the waiting camp after his last speech,” she clarifies.

On the other hand, the DWS economist highlights that updated growth and inflation forecasts should show that the economy is still growing moderately and that inflation is likely to fall below the 2% target in the medium term. Additionally, the current weakening of the labor market also raises the question of how restrictive the central bank should remain.

“In our view, these arguments are more favorable to a first rate cut and are also consistent with the central bank’s generally pessimistic rhetoric. The assessment of voting behavior is further complicated by the new composition of the Monetary Policy Committee. Therefore, only a narrow majority should vote in favor of the expected rate cut,” comments Loehken.

However, Johnathan Owen, manager at TwentyFour AM (Boutique of Vontobel), believes that the BoE may delay this rate cut. “The latest UK inflation figures will bring some relief to consumers, but behind the headline figure, Bank of England policymakers face a more complex picture that suggests rate cuts could still be far off. The latest data showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation fell exactly to 2% in May, in line with market expectations and marking a return to the BoE’s 2% target for the first time since July 2021,” argues Owen.

According to him, before Wednesday’s CPI data, markets had largely ruled out any chance of the Bank of England cutting rates in June, although the probability of a cut in August was at 44%. “Despite the Bank of England achieving its headline inflation target of 2%, the rigidity of services inflation, driven by strong wage growth and resilient demand in certain sectors, makes a rate cut in August increasingly unlikely, in our opinion,” defends the expert from TwentyFour AM.

Lastly, Peder Beck-Friis, economist at PIMCO, maintains his outlook and points out that the BoE will make two rate cuts in 2024. “Core inflation is likely to decline as the effects of the pandemic fade, monetary policy remains restrictive, and the labor market rebalances. Rachel Reeves’ comments yesterday show that the new government is firmly committed to fiscal discipline, reducing the upside risks to inflation in the coming years,” explains Beck-Friis.

Japan and Its Historic Monetary Policy

Finally, according to analysts at Banca March, in Japan, investors are betting on a rate hike at the July meeting, especially after the long silence from Governor Ueda—he will arrive at the meeting with more than 40 days without public interventions—and in light of the recent appreciation of the yen (5% higher against the dollar).

Not only is a rate hike expected, but a reduction in its monthly bond purchases could help strengthen the yen even further. “The possibility of a BoJ rate hike could lead to higher yields on Japanese bonds. However, they could see some volatility in case of a surprise. These actions would represent a significant shift in Japan’s monetary policy, affecting bond yields. Yields fell today and could remain under pressure before the BoJ meeting, although they remain near their highs. Additionally, the risks of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and elsewhere could drive flows into safe-haven assets, benefiting the yen,” explains Bas Kooijman, CEO and manager at DHF Capital S.A.

According to Magdalene Teo, Asian fixed income analyst at Julius Baer, it is still possible for the BoJ to maintain a hawkish stance by setting the stage to reduce bond purchases with a clear and bold plan to raise interest rates. “In any case, the big decision this week will come from Japan. Any communication error could be costly for the BoJ. The AUD and most Asian currencies, except MYR, IDR, and KRW, depreciated against the USD yesterday,” concludes Teo.

More Than a Third of Americans Use AI to Manage Their Finances

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Artificial Intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing the way Americans learn, work, and communicate, and investment management is no exception. According to a survey by BMO Financial Group, more than a third of Americans (37%) use this new technology to manage their finances.

Among the 37% of Americans using AI to help manage their finances, the most common uses include learning more about personal finance topics (49%), creating and/or updating household budgets (48%), identifying new investment strategies (47%), accumulating savings (47%), and creating and/or updating their financial plans (46%).

However, 64% state that AI cannot understand how emotions influence financial planning, the statement explains.

“AI offers great potential in how we manage our finances, providing real-time insights and analysis. However, money management is more than analytical; it is a deeply personal relationship shaped by emotions, experiences, and unique life circumstances,” said Paul Dilda, Head, U.S. Consumer Strategy, BMO.

The survey highlights how AI continues to change the way Americans learn, work, and communicate. For example, 59% use AI to ask questions about topics of interest, and 40% use the technology for data analysis.

Additionally, more than half believe that AI can help people make more informed financial decisions (53%) and make financial planning more accessible for everyone (52%).

On the other hand, 39% use AI to draft business, travel, exercise, and meal plans and/or manage their schedules and content creation, with more than 40% of Americans using the technology.

Optimistic Perspectives

Among Americans who do not use AI for their finances, nearly a third are considering using the technology to learn more about personal finance topics (32%), increase their savings (31%), find new investment strategies (29%), create and/or update their household budgets (29%) and financial plans (27%), and/or for retirement planning (27%).

As Generation Z begins to navigate life changes, the majority leverage AI to plan upcoming financial milestones more than any other generation. Therefore, they are the most likely to use AI to ask questions about topics of interest (82%), draft written content (75%), create business, travel, exercise, and/or meal plans (67%), and manage their finances and investments (61%).

In the past six months, 22% of Generation Z needed to make a major purchase, such as a car or a house, 18% attended college or graduate school, 15% changed jobs, and 13% started a business. However, 85% of Generation Z say that concern about their overall financial situation is the main source of financial anxiety, followed by fear of unknown expenses (80%), housing costs (79%), and keeping up with monthly bills (76%).

58% of Generation Z believe that AI can help people make more informed financial decisions, and 55% trust that AI tools can help them make real financial progress.

Political Uncertainty, Inflation, and Central Banks Will Shape the Exchange Rate Between the Euro and the Dollar

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The political uncertainty following recent European elections and ahead of the U.S. elections in November this year is a key factor in evaluating the future of the euro-dollar exchange rate. Additionally, this situation is compounded by the evolution of inflation in both economies, which is decreasing at a slower pace than expected, and the decisions that the ECB and the Fed will make regarding the pace of interest rate cuts.

To provide an approximate forecast of how the euro-dollar relationship will evolve, we have gathered analysis from various experts. For example, Claudio Wewel, currency strategist at J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable AM, considers it unlikely that the euro will rebound, as manufacturing momentum is slowing, although the currency should rise once the Fed starts cutting rates.

“Since the beginning of the year, the euro has had a mediocre performance. So far this year, it has fallen by around 3% against the U.S. dollar, while it has recorded a 1% rise in trade-weighted terms. Notably, the euro’s fluctuation band has been narrowing in recent years, and since January, the euro-dollar ratio has remained between 1.06 and 1.10,” Wewel points out.

According to his view, the duration of the current episode of “prolonged rise” will depend on the data. In this regard, he notes that the latest U.S. macroeconomic data have been weaker than expected, suggesting a moderation of the U.S.’s superior cyclical performance. However, he sees it as unlikely that the cyclical euro will benefit from the weakening economic activity in the U.S., given that the main economies of the eurozone have seen disappointing manufacturing PMIs in June.

“In this relative cyclical context, the ECB should be able to cut its policy more than the Federal Reserve this year. Along with the greater rigidity of U.S. inflation, the Fed’s less deep rate cut path than the market expected also reflects the increased odds of Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, which markets have started to consider as the base case. In our opinion, Trump’s policy mix would likely be more inflationary than a continuation of Biden’s policies, implying that in 2025 the Fed would implement fewer rate cuts in this case,” adds the expert from J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable AM.

From Ebury, they point out that market nervousness and uncertainty will benefit safe-haven currencies. The fintech predicts a slight appreciation of the euro-dollar pair in the coming months, which will largely result from “some convergence in economic outcomes across the Atlantic in 2024, as the U.S. economy slows after an impressive year, while the eurozone accelerates from a very low base.” Ebury analysts believe this circumstance “will push the pair back towards the 1.10 level by the end of the year, with further appreciation towards the 1.14 level in 2025.”

However, they warn that the outcome of the November presidential elections in the U.S. could pose a risk to this view. “A Donald Trump electoral victory, which markets currently assign about a 50% probability, could be bearish for EUR/USD if the former president doubles down on the protectionist policies that characterized his previous tenure in the White House,” they explain.

Parity: An Omen of Bad Luck?

Finally, according to Bank of America, parity between the two currencies is “rare” and “has not lasted long,” and they believe that for it to happen again, “everything would have to go wrong and stay that way.” According to their analysts, the probability of the euro/dollar reaching parity or less using quarterly data is zero.

“The verdict is still out on whether the euro/dollar will stay at its post-2014 lows or recover to its previous highs. Much depends on the balance between unsustainable debt and U.S. exceptionalism, and to what extent Europe unites to tackle its severe challenges stemming from geopolitics and energy dependency. A potential trade war after the U.S. elections could further weaken the euro. However, for us, parity remains only an outcome in extreme risk scenarios, and even then, we wouldn’t expect it to last long,” explains the entity in one of its latest reports.

Drawing on historical perspective, BofA indicates that the euro/dollar fell below parity only in exceptional circumstances that did not last long. Specifically, it did so only during the periods of 2000-2002 and from August to October 2022. “The first period, which was the longest, occurred during the dot-com bubble in the United States and its burst. The second period was during a perfect storm of negative shocks for Europe, with the war in Ukraine triggering a severe deterioration in its terms of trade through an energy shock, and with divergent monetary policies as the Fed was raising rates while the ECB denied inflation, delaying its policy tightening. However, the euro/dollar was above parity in November 2022, as these shocks began to diminish and the ECB started catching up with the Fed,” they point out.

Their analysis shows that the euro/dollar weakened but stayed above parity during other severe shocks. For example, it was well above parity during the global financial crisis and the eurozone crisis. It weakened substantially but also remained above parity during the ECB’s negative policy rate period after 2014. “Similarly, it stayed well above parity and without a clear trend during Trump’s first term in the United States: the euro/dollar initially strengthened and then weakened. It also remained well above parity during the pandemic,” concludes BofA in its report.

Asian Markets: Is It Time to Seek Yield as Well as Growth?

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In the current yield-seeking environment, the American asset manager Matthews Asia suggests that the Asian continent should be considered a source of dividend yield as well as a market for exposure to Asian growth. This is the value proposition of the strategy followed by the Asia Dividend fund, which is registered in Luxembourg and follows the UCITS format.

In 2011, the global amount of dividends distributed by listed companies in Asia reached $254 billion. This figure exceeds the pool of dividends distributed by S&P 500 companies in the same year by more than $10 billion. The dividend yield of the MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index also surpasses that of the S&P 500 (2.8% versus 2.3% for the S&P 500). Additionally, the growth in total dividends distributed in Asia has an annualized rate of 16% for the period 2002-2011, more than double the 7% rate for the S&P 500.

The strategy operates within a universe of companies with yields ranging from 1.5% to 5% and dividend growth between 5% and 15%.

Kenneth Lowe, CFA, Portfolio Manager at Matthews Asia, explains to Funds Society that in addition to having more dividends that grow faster, “in every sector we find established companies with good but stable dividend yields, such as a mature telecom in Hong Kong or Singapore, and companies with intense dividend growth, although their current dividend yield is lower, like new operators in Indonesia.” According to Lowe, this diversity helps avoid concentration by both country and sector.

The Matthews Asia Dividend Fund strategy combines dividend yield and growth of the dividend pool, managing a universe of companies with yields ranging from 1.5% to 5% and dividend growth between 5% and 15%. “Since we incorporate dividend growth as a key factor in selecting stocks for the fund, we do not neglect the growth aspect of investing in Asian equities,” says Kenneth Lowe.

According to this expert, companies that distribute good dividends tend to have more aligned interests between shareholders and management, and also tend to better meet corporate governance requirements because “it is more difficult to hide accounting or business problems if you have to distribute a good dividend year after year,” Lowe points out. Finally, the manager comments that it is as important to identify companies with the highest growth in Asia as those whose growth is both stable and sustainable.

Currently, the strategy maintains its position in defensive and cyclical consumer companies, as well as in the telecommunications sector to benefit from the growth of domestic consumption in Asia, focusing mainly on companies that provide stability in dividend distribution. Recently, some more cyclical positions have been added due to their attractive valuation in both absolute terms and relative to companies with more predictable earnings growth.

As future risks, the manager highlights macroeconomic factors, both in Europe and the U.S. due to their fiscal problems and the possibility of a permanent slowdown in China’s growth. Despite this, Matthews Asia notes that Asian companies maintain the positive differential in dividend yield compared to American companies and remain well positioned to grow their dividends.

Matthews Asia has just over $5 billion under management in the Asian dividend yield strategy, which was launched in 2005 in the U.S. and had its UCITS format counterpart, the Luxembourg-based Asia Dividend fund, launched in April 2010. The UCITS strategy has $376 million in assets under management (as of February 28, 2013).

BBVA México Launches Fund Focused on Nearshoring

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Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Mexico linked to nearshoring grew at an annual rate of 47%, rising from $10.5 billion between January and September 2022 to a total of $15 billion in the same period of 2023.

This figure is one of the reasons BBVA México announced the launch of the BBVANSH investment fund, focused on the economic phenomenon of nearshoring, which is transforming the global dynamics of production and trade.

This investment fund is a Mexican equity product that operates with an initial capital of 120 million pesos ($6.48 million), selecting stocks of companies and Real Estate Investment Trusts (FIBRAs) focused on the logistics, supply, infrastructure, and services sectors.

The sectoral distribution of the investment fund primarily includes airport services, construction, rail transportation, passenger transportation, equipment and auto parts, as well as the hotel and education sectors, among others.

BBVA México led the country’s investment fund market during the first half of the year with a 24.53% share; the new BBVANSH fund increases the institution’s offering of investment strategies to 56 available products.

“BBVANSH not only reflects our commitment to innovation and adaptation to global trends but also our confidence in Mexico’s economic potential. We firmly believe that the fund, aside from providing attractive returns to our investors, will also contribute to the sustainable economic development of our country,” said Luis Ángel Rodríguez Amestoy, director of BBVA Asset Management México.

“We recognize the opportunity that this strategy represents not only for our country but also for companies and investments in the financial markets,” added Jorge Alegría Formoso, CEO of the Mexican Stock Exchange.

According to BBVA México, BBVANSH will consist of between 15 and 35 issuers listed on the Mexican Stock Exchange, with approximately 70% being companies and 30% FIBRAs, prioritizing high and mid-cap issuers.

The expectations of the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO) indicate that nearshoring will continue to be one of the major investment magnets for the Mexican economy in the coming years.

IMCO recently highlighted an analysis of the 57 sectors most related to nearshoring and the trend of FDI, including automobile and truck manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and the beverage industry—data that BBVA also considered when launching its new product in the institution’s fund family.

Retail Investors Become the Main Clientele for Funds in Brazil

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The number of individual investors in Credit Rights Investment Funds (FIDC) has skyrocketed in the past year, making this class of investors the primary category in the investment sector, according to a report published by Anbima (Brazilian Association of Financial and Capital Market Entities).

According to available data, in May (the most recent month available), the number of individual investors reached 37,830, a figure 70% higher compared to the previous year. In second place are investment funds, with 28,968 managers.

According to Sergio Cutolo, Director of Anbima, CVM Resolution 175 was largely responsible for the change. “Our expectation is that the adaptation of the stock of FIDCs to the new standards, which will take place in November of this year, will pave the way for even greater growth than what has been recorded so far,” he says.

Liquidity and Transparency

The liquidity of FIDC assets, especially open-end funds, is a crucial issue for this asset class. The obligation to provide detailed liquidity information to the regulator (CVM) revealed that many managers still face challenges. In May 2024, 88 funds did not submit the required information, and of the 404 that did, 76 were discarded due to filling errors.

However, FIDC liquidity has increased, and longer terms are being offered to investors. The data shows that 71.56% of the assets of these funds have liquidity of more than 360 days, an improvement compared to the beginning of the year, but still lower than the levels in 2021 and 2022.

The presence of open-end financial funds investing in closed-end FIDCs represents a liquidity risk, especially due to the difficulties in handling shareholder redemptions. In May 2024, there were 1,656 open-end FIFs with shares in closed-end FIDCs, a significant increase from the 1,189 in January 2023. Despite this, most FIFs maintain relatively low exposure to FIDCs, which helps mitigate risks.

Ambiguity Takes Hold of U.S. Consumers in July

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The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased in July to 100.3 (1985=100), up from a downwardly revised 97.8 in June.

“Confidence increased in July, but not enough to break out of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board.

The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, decreased to 133.6 from 135.3 last month. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, improved in July to 78.2. This is an increase from 72.8 in June but still below 80, the threshold that generally signals an impending recession. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was July 22, 2024, The Conference Board explains.

“Although consumers remain relatively positive about the labor market, they still seem concerned about high prices and interest rates, and uncertainty about the future—things that may not improve until next year,” Peterson added.

Compared to last month, consumers were somewhat less pessimistic about the future, and expectations regarding future income improved slightly. However, consumers remained generally negative about business and employment conditions, the statement explains.

Additionally, consumers were a bit less positive about the current labor market and business conditions. Potentially, smaller monthly job additions are weighing on consumers’ assessment of current job availability: although still quite strong, consumers’ assessment of the current labor situation fell to its lowest level since March 2021.

In July, confidence improved among consumers under 35 and those 55 and older; only the 35 to 54 age group saw a decrease. On a six-month moving average basis, confidence remained highest among consumers under 35.

Regarding the prediction of a recession, Peterson added that it remains well below the peak of 2023. Consumers’ assessments of their family’s financial situation, both currently and in the next six months, were less positive. In fact, evaluations of family finances have continuously worsened since the beginning of 2024.

The Monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on an online sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Toluna, a technology company that provides real-time consumer insights and market research through its innovative technology, expertise, and panel of over 36 million consumers. The deadline for preliminary results was July 22.

To read the full report, you can visit the following link.

UBS Private WM Adds Dan Chorney to Its New York Office

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Dan Chorney has joined the New York office of UBS Private Wealth Management as a portfolio manager.

“I am proud to announce that Dan Chorney has joined our UBS 1285 Avenue of the Americas Private Wealth Management office in New York City,” posted Thomas Conigatti, market director of the firm, on LinkedIn.

Chorney arrives from Bernstein Private Wealth Management, where he worked for nearly 21 years, according to his LinkedIn profile. Since joining the firm in 2003, he has served as a business analyst, national director of private client services, and wealth advisor.

Alongside the experienced professional arrives Stefanie Schechter, coming from Neuberger Berman.

Chorney, together with his colleague specializing in wealth strategy, Stefanie Schechter, “are positioned to guide multigenerational families and institutions to successfully simplify their complex financial lives, maximize the value of their businesses, and create lasting family legacies,” says the UBS statement.

The advisors are already effective in their positions.

Awaiting The Harris Effect, Trump Remains The Favorite

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The Predictable Exit of Joe Biden Happened Last Weekend. According to data from Polymarket, Kamala Harris has a 92% chance of being the Democratic nominee for the November presidential election. The support from most Democrats, as well as from the 50 state party leaders, guarantees — barring any last-minute major surprise — her official nomination at the party congress at the end of August.

Although initially (and before news of Biden’s withdrawal), Robert F. Kennedy Jr. seemed better positioned, according to betting houses, Harris’s replacement seems to bring some hope to the Democratic ranks. After facing serious difficulties in attracting campaign contributions in recent weeks, they have reportedly raised over $150 million in donations in less than 24 hours since the new candidacy announcement, according to CNBC.

With barely three months before the elections, and seeing how the gap has widened substantially between Kamala and other Democratic candidates in the latest polls, it seems that the blue party is rallying around the least bad option they have. Kamala Harris’s contributions to the White House battle have a marginally positive balance.

On the negative side, Harris’s electoral record is not brilliant. She won the California Attorney General position in 2010 by only 0.8% more votes than her opponent, Republican Steve Cooley. As previously explained, she was not the preferred replacement for Biden. She also doesn’t seem likely to significantly diminish Trump’s apparent advantage in the electoral vote (vs. popular vote). Additionally, as Vice President of the current administration, she will bear the brunt of issues like inflation or lack of control in immigration that are dragging down poll numbers.

Perhaps the most unfavorable aspect, which Donald Trump will surely exploit to his advantage, is the perception among conservative Americans regarding Harris’s political positioning, which is to the left of Biden and other more conservative Democratic presidents. Considering the U.S. demographics (50.4% women and approximately 14% African Americans, with only about 23% of registered Democrats identifying as “liberals”), the median voter theorem consolidates her as a disadvantaged candidate.

On the positive side, Harris’s disapproval rating before the announcement was better than Joe Biden’s (49.5% vs. 57%). In her role as Vice President, anyone who would have voted for Biden this November would reasonably consider a scenario where Kamala would have to replace him in the Oval Office before 2028 and would be the natural alternative for Democrats in the presidential elections that year.

Additionally, it forces Republicans to rethink their strategy, facilitating their opponents’. Kamala is now in a position to attack Trump using his advanced age as a primary argument (Harris is 59 years old, compared to Trump’s 78). Counteracting the negative interpretation of her chances according to the median voter theorem, a Pew “think tank” chart suggests a “center” or moderate voter group (39%) that surpasses both blue liberals and red conservatives. In other words, if Kamala can convincingly take a step to the right — assuming, with the addition of JD Vance, that Trump won’t moderate his rhetoric — she could improve her poll numbers compared to Biden’s records.

As explained in this analysis published in 2022, Americans who actively use X to interact with politicians, media, or journalists in public forums demonstrate that Harris could leverage this tool to present a more moderate profile: as distribution graphs show, blues have much more exposure to the social network than conservative Republicans.

Applying the 13 criteria of historian Allan Lichtman, which have accurately predicted the popular vote direction in all presidential elections from 1984 to 2020 and offer an interesting framework to study contenders’ merits despite being subjective at times and dependent on almost real-time information at others, my result would favor Trump (6 or more false criteria coincide with a change of White House occupant).

In the coming weeks, we’ll start receiving poll results that will show whether the Democrats’ surprise move allows Kamala Harris to close the gap with Donald Trump. The first, from Quinnipiac University, conducted a day after the announcement, seems to point in this direction: 49% of participants supported Trump, compared to 47% for Harris, improving the 48% – 45% shown in the previous poll with Biden. Another Ipsos poll on Wednesday placed her two points ahead of her opponent. The average of the three most recent polls leaves the difference at just one point.

For now, although Trump remains the favorite, his approval rating is low at 42.3%, but it surpasses Kamala Harris’s 37.8%. The balance of the few polls conducted since July 19 gives him a three-point advantage. The bets, which have been more accurate in identifying winners in other electoral processes, are 61%-36% in favor of the Republican, although he has lost three points in the last three days.

The election remains close, and it’s important to follow the polls in the “swing states” identified a couple of weeks ago, as they could be key: a shift towards normalization in Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin (historically Democratic strongholds now leaning the other way).

Only a month has passed since the first presidential debate, and things have moved very quickly since then. Although it’s very likely that Powell will clarify his intention to start lowering rates in September at the July Fed meeting, the other support for portfolio rotation discussed last week has become much more unstable.

The rebalancing towards more cyclical, value, and small-cap companies could continue to benefit from macro announcements pointing to a consolidation in the disinflation trend, allowing the Fed on the 31st to lay the foundations for the start of a cycle of easing monetary policy.

However, more evident signs of a cooling job market or loss of momentum in the first quarter’s industrial activity rebound would deny the hypothesis of a cycle elongation. Additionally, investors, after the initial boost, may reassess the macro implications of a second Trump term, which might not be as favorable for the stock market.