BofA Merrill Lynch Survey Finds Investors Positioning Aggressively for Recovery in H2

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Seguimos siendo positivos con los activos de riesgo
Foto: John Morgan, Flickr, Creative Commons. Seguimos siendo positivos con los activos de riesgo

Global investors have regained a strongly bullish stance on the outlook for equity markets in the second half of 2014, according to the BofA Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey for July. An overall total of 228 panelists with US$674 billion of assets under management participated in the survey from 3 July to 10 July 2014. A total of 179 managers, managing US$524 billion, participated in the global survey.

A net 61 percent of global asset allocators are now overweight equities. This ranks as the survey’s highest reading on this measure since early 2011 and represents the panel’s second-strongest response ever.

This aggressivepositioning for recovery in H2 reflects a significant increase in investors’ inflation expectations. A net 71 percent expect global core CPI to be higher in 12 months, up 13 percentage points since last month. This marks a cyclical high for the survey. Exposure to commodities, an asset class especially sensitive to inflation, has risen to its strongest in more than a year.

A growing number of investors now see inflation moving above trend levels while global growth remains below-trend. Confidence in macroeconomic performance still remains fairly high, though. A net 69 percent forecast that the world economy will strengthen over the next year.

Neither valuation nor tail risks deter fund managers from their optimism. A net 21 percent regard stock markets as overvalued – the survey’s highest reading since 2000. Concerns over potential Chinese debt defaults, “asset manias” and eurozone deflation have all faded since last month. The prospect of geopolitical crises now stands out as the greatest tail risk and threat to financial market stability.

“Improving investor sentiment on global growth, inflation, equities and risk-taking are all testament to a potential macro normalization in the second half. This could eventually feed into a normalization of rates. If growth does pick up, volatility will rise too,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch Research. “As Europe’s recovery falters the region is becoming a global passenger as investors pin their hopes on growth elsewhere,” said Obe Ejikeme, European equity and quantitative strategist.

Qualms over core Europe

Regional investors now see global re-acceleration as the likeliest source of eurozone growth. Thirty-three percent of respondents point to this driver after a rise of eight percentage points month-on-month. It has overtaken a renewed stimulus program as the panel’s primary driver of regional recovery.

Global survey respondents have further postponed the timing of anticipated quantitative easing by the European Central Bank. Twenty-five percent now expect QE to take place in 2015, up from June’s 15 percent, while only 12 percent see it starting in Q3.

Against this background, the panel has lost conviction towards European equities. Only a net 10 percent would now most favor overweighting the region across the next year, down 11 percentage points from June’s reading.

German equities have lost favor in particular. Only a net 12 percent of regional fund managers would overweight this market over the next 12 months, compared to a net 31 percent last month.

Periphery appetite fading

Investors’ appetite for exposure to the eurozone periphery is also declining. U.S. high-yield has overtaken EU peripheral debt (down nine points month-on-month) as the investment trade that fund managers regard as most crowded.

Confidence in periphery equities has fallen, too. Most notably, only a net 3 percent of regional investors now see Italy as one of the European equity markets they will seek to overweight over the next year, down 16 percentage points from last month. Appetite for Spain has barely weakened, however.   

Call for capex

For the seventh month in a row, investors’ call for companies to invest more in capital spending has again reached a record high. The reading now stands at an unprecedented 65 percent and is mirrored by a record net 71 percent judging that companies are under-investing – the highest reading since the survey began asking this question in 2005. 

Conversely, those wanting companies to return surplus cash are at their lowest level in five years. Only 18 percent of fund managers are looking to companies to institute buybacks or dividend payments – or to make acquisitions for cash.

Paolo Scaroni Appointed Deputy Chairman at Rothschild

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The Rothschild Group is pleased to announce the appointment of Paolo Scaroni as Deputy Chairman with effect from 1 July 2014. He will work particularly closely with the Group’s Global Financial Advisory business, bringing his wealth of experience in industry to the bank and its clients, especially in the energy and power sector.

Mr Scaroni was, most recently, CEO of Eni, one of the world’s major integrated energy companies, from May 2005 to May 2014.

Announcing the appointment, David de Rothschild said “I am delighted that Paolo Scaroni has agreed to join Rothschild. Having worked with Paolo for many years, I have no doubt that our clients and colleagues will benefit greatly from his deep knowledge of many industries, his experience in managing multinational organisations, and his energetic and entrepreneurial outlook. I look forward to working closely with him.”

Paolo Scaroni said “I am very much looking forward to working with David and the team at Rothschild. In particular, I am excited about the prospect of using the experience I have gained through my different business roles to help the firm’s clients address the strategic issues and opportunities available to them.

Paolo Scaroni obtained an economics degree from Milan’s Bocconi University in 1969 and an MBA from Columbia Business School in 1973. After business school, Mr. Scaroni was an associate at McKinsey and Company. From 1973 until 1985, he was with Saint Gobain, culminating with his appointment as President of the flat glass division. In 1985, Mr. Scaroni became CEO of Techint, and executive VP of SIV, a joint venture between Techint and Pilkington plc. He joined Pilkington plc in 1996 and was CEO until May 2002. Between 2002 and 2005 he was CEO of Enel, Italy’s leading electricity utility, and between 2005 and 2014 he was CEO of Eni, one of the world’s major integrated energy companies.

 

BlackGold Capital Management and KKR Form Strategic Partnership

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KKR and BlackGold Capital Management, a credit-oriented hedge fund specializing in energy and hard asset investments, have announced that KKR is acquiring a 24.9% interest in BlackGold. Financial terms of the transaction were not disclosed.

Established in 2006 by co-founders Erik Dybesland and Adam Flikerski, who have spent their entire careers in the energy sector, BlackGold specializes in energy and hard asset event-driven strategies while investing throughout the capital structure. The nature of BlackGold’s strategy and investments facilitates repeatable low correlation and volatility returns relative to the broader market and commodities, providing meaningful diversification benefits to its investors.

“Through this strategic investment in BlackGold, we are partnering with an outstanding team with an excellent track record of delivering returns to investors. We are thrilled to add BlackGold to our hedge fund platform and we look forward to a long-term partnership with Erik, Adam and the full BlackGold team,” Todd Builione, co-head of Hedge Funds at KKR, said.

Erik Dybesland and Adam Flikerski stated: “KKR has nearly three decades of experience investing in the energy sector and maintains a significant presence and technical expertise in the industry. Having access to KKR’s global network of relationships, institutional infrastructure and management expertise will introduce new areas of opportunity for BlackGold and our investors. We are confident that our partnership will strengthen relationships with our counterparties and within our investment universe, while enhancing the durability and unique capabilities of our franchise.”

Marc Lipschultz, KKR’s Global Head of Energy & Infrastructure, added: “We are always looking for exceptional teams with whom we can partner, and this investment marks the culmination of those efforts. We believe their deep industry knowledge coupled with our energy franchise will benefit both parties and lead to new investment opportunities for our respective investors.”

BlackGold’s management team will continue to manage the business independently, and BlackGold’s investment strategies will not change as a result of KKR’s investment. All of BlackGold founders’ capital will remain invested in the funds and the majority of the proceeds received from this transaction will be re-invested in the funds – maintaining full alignment with their investors. Pro forma this transaction, the BlackGold management team will own 75.1% of BlackGold.

The investment in BlackGold is part of KKR’s efforts to develop the firm’s hedge fund platform, which is co-led by Girish Reddy and Todd Builione, and to expand the firm’s energy business, which is led by Marc Lipschultz. KKR’s hedge fund platform includes its approximately $10 billion multi-manager hedge fund business (KKR Prisma) and a Strategic Stakes & Seeding business that invests the firm’s balance sheet to acquire minority stakes in hedge fund managers. BlackGold represents KKR’s second minority stake in a hedge fund manager, following the 2013 investment in Nephila Capital, an insurance-linked securities manager with approximately $10 billion under management.

The investment by KKR was made by the firm and not through KKR’s investment funds.

BTG Pactual Enters Agreement to Purchase Ariel Re from Global Atlantic

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MiFID II and Lessons from The UK
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrFoto: AedoPulltrone, Flickr, Creative Commons. MiFID II y lecciones de Reino Unido para Europa

Banco BTG Pactual S.A. and Global Atlantic Financial Group Limited have announced that they have signed an agreement whereby BTG Pactual will acquire Ariel Re, Global Atlantic’s Bermuda-based property and casualty reinsurance company. The transaction, which includes all of the operating entities, assets and obligations of Ariel Re, is still subject to customary regulatory approvals. The purchase price has not been disclosed.

Ariel Re will be the cornerstone of BTG Pactual’s international reinsurance venture, which builds on the success of its London-based reinsurance principal investment business and establishes a permanent presence in the industry. Ariel Re, which has offices in Bermuda and London, will continue to operate its Lloyd’s of London syndicate and retain access to Lloyds security ratings. The transaction will be seamless for brokers and customers.

“Ariel Re is an exceptional business with a strong track record, experienced people, market-leading technology and an innovative structure, including a Lloyd’s syndicate. While current market conditions are clearly challenging, the opportunity to buy a best-in-class business with proven risk-discipline was too good to miss, as it offers an exceptional opportunity to expand our presence in the P&C industry outside of our local market,” said Andre Esteves, CEO of BTG Pactual.

Ariel Re will continue to operate under the Ariel Re brand name and identity. This transaction will provide Ariel Re and its talented team of insurance and reinsurance professionals the opportunity to continue their record of growth and underwriting performance into the future.

Going forward, Global Atlantic will concentrate its strategic focus on growing its life and annuity business. With over $30 billion in assets, the company will continue to innovate and develop a compelling, diversified mix of insurance and reinsurance offerings tailored to the evolving needs of today’s consumers and institutional customers.

“As markets and our strategy have evolved over the past year, we determined that the best path forward for each of the company’s business units from a strategic perspective was to operate them separately,” said Allan Levine, CEO of Global Atlantic. “With this transaction, both the Property & Casualty and Life & Annuity businesses are well positioned for success with a more concentrated focus on their individual long-term strategies and objectives.”

Deutsche Bank Hires Joe McIntosh as Vice Chairman of Consumer and Retail Investment Banking Coverage, Americas

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Deutsche Bank announced the appointment of Joe McIntosh as a Vice Chairman of Consumer and Retail Investment Banking Coverage (IBC), Americas. Based in Chicago, he will report to Keith Wargo, Co-Global Head of Consumer and Retail IBC.

McIntosh will join from Bank of America, where he was most recently a Managing Director in the Consumer group, responsible for leading client coverage for large-cap, multinational agribusiness, food and consumer companies. He joined Bank of America through Merrill Lynch in 1997. McIntosh has advised on numerous high profile deals including the USD 8bn Fortune Brands spinoff of Beam, Inc and the USD 7bn ConAgra acquisition of Ralcorp.

“Joe is a trusted leader with extensive experience advising some of the industry’s most important multinational food and consumer companies. His appointment, coupled with other senior additions we have made to our team, further demonstrates our continued investment and commitment to providing our clients with advice of the highest quality,” said Paul Stefanick, Head of Global Investment Banking Coverage & Advisory and Co-Head of Corporate Finance Americas.

Last month, Deutsche Bank also announced the hire of Jeff Rose as a Managing Director, Global Head of Consumer and Retail Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), and Americas Head of Consumer and Retail Investment Banking Coverage (IBC) from Bank of America.

PREI and Swedish Pension Fund Form Joint Venture to Invest in German Retail Properties

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Prudential Real Estate Investors and the Third Swedish National Pension Fund, AP3, announced they have formed a joint venture to invest in retail properties throughout Germany. The joint venture has acquired a first portfolio and agreed to acquire a second portfolio of grocery-anchored retail properties from funds managed by Taurus Investment Holdings, which remains a minority partner in both transactions. PREI is the real estate investment and advisory business of Prudential Financial, which is headquartered in the United States.

The joint venture is acquiring controlling stakes of the properties in two separate transactions totaling €265 million, or a little more than $361 million. The first transaction closed in April and the second is expected to close in the second quarter, with Taurus remaining a minority investor in both instances. Combined, the entire portfolio comprises more than 200,000 square meters and 83 high yielding, grocery-anchored properties throughout Germany. Key tenants include such large German food retailers as REWE, Aldi, Lidl, Netto, NORMA and Tegut. The portfolio has centers located across Germany, including in Bavaria and Hesse, with properties near Munich, Frankfurt and Wiesbaden.

“The German market offers good prospects for retailers amid low unemployment, low household debt and rising wages,” said Sebastiano Ferrante, PREI’s head of Germany, where the company operates as Pramerica Real Estate Investors. “Grocery-anchored retail properties continue to fill a critical need in the market, despite the growth of online sales, leading some retailers to expand and providing our investors with attractive opportunities. We are delighted to partner with AP3 in this important Eurozone market.”

Klas Akerback, senior portfolio manager at AP3, added, “We see a potential for attractive risk-adjusted returns in established German regional grocery-anchored retail, as the tenants are strong companies and existing sites will benefit because stricter planning rules make new construction difficult. I am very pleased to be working on this investment with Pramerica’s experienced team.”

Lorenz Reibling, founder and partner at Taurus, said: “We are pleased to have found a strong and experienced partner that enables us to continue Taurus Euro Retail Funds I & II, and are looking forward working with Pramerica and AP3. We share their positive outlook on the German retail real estate sector.”

AM Global Family Investment Office Celebrates its Second Anniversary

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AM Global Family Investment Office Celebrates its Second Anniversary
Foto: Photomatt28. AM Global Family Investment Office cumple su II aniversario con crecimientos del 150% en AUM

AM Global Family Investment Office, an emerging family office leader founded by two former GenSpring Family Offices executives, celebrates the second anniversary of its investment-focused family office business model for wealthy individuals and families. The business model features a single-family office client experience combined with a service offering acutely focused on investing. The firm is growing rapidly with year-over-year organic growth in Assets Under Advisement of over 150% (as of March 31, 2014) and was recently ranked number two in the Financial Advisor Magazine Top 50 Fastest Growing Independent Advisors.

In addition to the growth in clients and assets under management, the firm also recently announced the hiring of Victoria Karasin and Susan Dsurney, two experienced and respected advisors who previously worked with the founders at GenSpring.

“We are convinced that the business model we’ve developed, being a Family Investment Office, solves some of the biggest issues with wealth management firms and full service family offices,” says Founder and Chief Investment Officer Andrew Mehalko. “Basically, a single purpose family office that acts as a professional investor on behalf of its clients without having the investment experience diluted by competing services and unnecessary costs.”

AM Global Family Investment Office is based in West Palm Beach, FL and serves wealthy individuals and families throughout the U.S. and internationally. The firm was recently named “Best Newcomer – Private Wealth” for 2014 by Private Asset Management.

Amethis Finance Mobilizes USD 530 Million for African Entrepreneurs

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Sustaining the Final Frontier through Investment
Foto: Steve MCN, Flickr, Creative Commons. Apoyo a "la última frontera" a través de la inversión

Amethis Finance, the private investment fund dedicated to long-term responsible investments in Africa, founded in partnership between Luc Rigouzzo, Laurent Demey, and the Edmond de Rothschild Group through Compagnie Benjamin de Rothschild Conseil “CBR”, successfully reached its final close in June 2014, mobilizing USD 530 million. Amethis has been able to attract an unprecedented number of private investors for an African fund, being financial institutions but also European and US family offices.

Amethis realizes one of the biggest fundraising ever for a first-time investment fund dedicated to Africa showing increasing interest of US and European investors for the continent. Amethis’ shareholding structure is composed of 55 investors of which only 3 are state owned while most of the investment funds dedicated to Africa have been financed by development finance institutions (DFI) so far. Amethis has managed to bring to Africa European, US and African institutions, together with close to 40 European and US entrepreneurs and family offices.

Amethis has a unique shareholding structure: mixing classical institutional investors (banks, insurance companies, fund of fund…) with successful private entrepreneurs from the manufacturing and services sectors who are investing often for the first time in Africa and are looking to know better the continent. Amethis considers its investors as potential shareholders and business partners for the companies it invests in. Amethis assists its investors in their expansion, notably through co-investments. Indeed, Amethis aims to capitalize on its network to identify and to harness strategies between its diversified investor pool and its local partners.

A business model suited for the continent’s needs

Africa is going through a rapid and dramatic change, thanks to its demographics and fast urbanization. Economic models are rapidly changing, with consumer and retail oriented companies taking advantage of those evolutions. This rapid growth is creating significant capital needs for local companies, and Amethis’ strategy is to foster long-term ties with well-established, high-growth African businesses which need long-term capital, and supporting them through a new phase of their life cycle. Amethis is helping them to develop, first in their own national space, then in their regional space.

To do so, Amethis has developed an investment strategy adapted to the African needs and specificities: Amethis is particularly positioned on Africa’s bottlenecks areas supporting urbanization and consumer growth: financial services, retail, agri-business, energy…; Amethis is focused on countries with a large domestic market and a diversified economy (i.e. countries in transition); Amethis is one of the only player to provide its clients with traditional equity and flexible long-term debt, a mix adapted to its clients’ needs; Amethis only takes minority stakes, which is well suited for family-owned businesses. Finally, Amethis is characterized by its long-term horizon.

A quick start with already five investments completed so far

A year and a half after its first closing, Amethis has already made 5 investments, in fast perfoming companies in Kenya, Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire and Mauritius, in banking, oil and gas retail distribution and logistics. Amethis is supporting the rapid changes in the African retail banking industry, pushed by innovative local banks creating new marketing and distribution models. It has already partnered with the two fastest growing banks in Kenya and Ghana, respectively Chase Bank and Fidelity Bank, who are transforming their respective banking industries. It is supporting in Côte d’Ivoire the quick rise in gas consumption, investing in the local champion, Pétroivoire. In the Indian Ocean, it backs the rise of Mauritius as the regional logistics hub through the regional leader, Velogic.

Partnership with Compagnie Benjamin de Rothschild Conseil

The fruitful alliance with CBR is grounded on the proven know-how of Amethis Finance founders in sustainable development in Africa and the credibility of the Edmond the Rothschild Group. Amethis founders are a team of bankers and Private Equity investors, specialized in Africa and the Mediterranean, who have devoted their careers to private equity and long-term lending on the African continent. They share the same long-term investment vision as the Rothschild family which have granted to CBR a mission to promote innovative investment schemes in partnerships with highly recognized investment professionals. Over the last ten years CBR has developed a recognized environmental and social expertise, notably with its investment funds platform, covering traditional strategies and focusing on Impact Finance, Environment and Infrastructure, in developed markets and frontier markets.

Luc Rigouzzo, Managing Partner at Amethis comments: “The success of this fundraising, demonstrates the appetite of private European and US entrepreneurs and family offices to invest in Africa, the next world frontier for growth, and their conviction that our patient and responsible business model is well adapted to the needs of the continent.” Laurent Demey, Managing Partner at Amethis, adds “African entrepreneurs are shaping Africa’s future at a key moment in the continent history. Amethis role and objective is to support them in all possible ways: money, of course, but also value addition, international network and recognition through our very specific business model and shareholder base.” Johnny El Hachem, Chief Executive Officer of Compagnie Benjamin de Rothschild Conseil adds: “We were convinced that Amethis was the right team for this partnership, with whom we share the same vision of long-term responsible investment in Africa. It is at the core of the Edmond de Rothschild Group to partner with talented professionals on ambitious and innovative projects.

World Gold Council Forum Discusses Reform or Replacement of the Gold Fix

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The World Gold Council, the market development organisation for the gold industry, has convened a roundtable debate to discuss how to modernise the London Gold Fix.

The meeting was attended by 34 delegates representing all parts of the industry including; central banks, bullion banks, refiners, ETFs and other gold investment product sponsors, exchanges and industry bodies.

Hosted by the World Gold Council’s Chief Executive Officer, Aram Shishmanian, delegates discussed the requirements and desired characteristics for a reformed benchmark, along with the pros and cons of any alternative price-setting mechanism.

The key points emerging in the discussion were as follows:

  • The need for a single, trusted, benchmark reference price is in the interests of the millions of people involved in the gold market around the world  
  • The imperative for continuity of price discovery to avoid market disruption
  • The importance of expanding involvement in the process to reflect the full range of market participants
  • The importance of a  local  London price, which would reflect both the deep pool of liquidity available in London, as well as London’s historic and current position as the primary trading centre for gold
  • Any solution will need to be settled locally and physically
  • The need for a transparent benchmark which mitigates any potential reputational risk for those administering the benchmark
  • The requirement to separate market making from benchmark administration, and to meet all the other IOSCO principles including independent oversight

Natalie Dempster, Managing Director, Central Banks and Public Policy said: “We are at the start of a process that will lead to a reformed and modernised gold benchmark which attracts a broader range of market participants.

There was strong support for the World Gold Council’s key principles for reform.  We believe it should be based on executed trades and a tradable price, it should have highly transparent input data, should be calculated from a deep and liquid market, and represent a physically-deliverable price.”

$3 Million Dollar Morgan Stanley Team Joins Steward Partners

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Steward Partners Global Advisory, an employee-owned, full service independent partnership, announced that Kenneth Mathieson and Erik Mathieson, along with their other team members, have left the midtown Manhattan office of Morgan Stanley, to join Steward Partners. The team has over 50 years of combined experience serving clients as Wealth Managers. This move to Steward Partner’s newest location, 2 Grand Central Tower, 140 East 45th Street, marks the official opening of a flagship New York City Branch for Steward. The Mathiesons manage $315 million in client assets, and generated over $3 million in production on an annual basis at their prior firm.

With the addition of the Mathiesons, Steward Partners has crossed the billion-dollar threshold in recruited assets in just under 8 months, averaging well over $100 million a month in new recruited assets since inception. Along with The Mathiesons, Steward Partners has welcomed other high-end teams managing hundreds of millions in assets in the months of May and June. The newest recruits join the existing advisors of the same quality who began joining weeks after Steward Partners launched last September.

The firm, which utilizes the Raymond James platform and support services, has opened offices in four states with several more planned this year. Steward’s rapid expansion establishes it as a fast growing Full Service Independent Partnerships. Their success is extremely rare as it usually takes years, not months, to reach the all-important milestone of $1 Billion in AUM recruited.

“Congratulations to Mike, Jim, Hy and the entire Steward Partners team on surpassing $1 billion in recruited client assets,” said Scott Curtis, president of Raymond James Financial Services. “We recognized early on that their boutique partnership proposition would appeal to certain high quality, client-focused advisors seeking independence combined with the camaraderie and familiarity of a more traditional branch environment and the full-service support resources provided by Raymond James.  We look forward to their continued growth and success.”

Along with pride in hitting the billion dollar milestone, Steward’s CEO is proud of his firm’s newest team: “Ken and Erik and their entire team represent what’s best about true partnership,” says Steward CEO Mike Maurer. “They are among the best in the United States at what they do, they are client focused, and they care about the people they work with. We are honored to call them partners.”

“Over time, we saw the changes to our industry,” says Ken Mathieson. “We came to appreciate the Independent movement for its transparency and fairness for clients and Advisors. When we combined that with Steward, and its top caliber management team, our fear of the independent space turned to excitement, especially with the strength, stability and vast resources Raymond James brings to the table.”

“We wanted a say in firm direction, and to feel like our business and clients matter,” adds Erik Mathieson. “Being a partner and an owner is totally different than being an employee. Who we have partnered with is exciting, comforting and empowering.” “While a billion is a reach to many, it is just the beginning. Assets and revenue matter, but reputation, character and the ability to enhance our culture comes first,” says Maurer. “Raymond James has been a big part of our success. They are the real deal in everyway.”

The company is headquartered in Washington, DC with additional offices in Andover, MA, Portsmouth, NH, and New York City. Steward Partners Global Advisory is an employee-owned, full service independent partnership catering to family, institutional and multi-generational wealth.