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Henderson: Waiting in The Wings

Henderson: Esperando para salir a escena — CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Hernán Piñera, Flickr, Creative Commons. Henderson: Waiting in The Wings

With Greece’s theatrics dominating the world stage, investors may have missed some compelling stories unfolding in the wings. Bill McQuaker, Co-Head of Multi-Asset at Henderson, spotlights three of his favourites: oil, emerging markets and job creation.

Oil: a new script

If investors thought oil’s slump was over, they were wrong. Rising US demand for petrol (gas) has been met by unfettered global supply, with prices heading south of US$60 again. Credible explanations include: an urgent need for foreign currency (Russia/Venezuela); the desire to re-assert control over the market (Saudi Arabia); and new supply (Iran). We also suspect innovations in horizontal drilling and re-fracking are only beginning to drive US oil field economics, pointing to over-supply in the immediate future.

Implications? We see three. First, the renewed sell-off may finally persuade consumers that low prices are here to stay. Expect the contributions to GDP growth from (particularly US) consumption to strengthen. Second, some oil producing countries may suffer further currency weakness, heaping pressure on their central banks to tighten policy; a financial shock to accompany an oil price collapse is a possibility, particularly if US rates rise soon. Third, price weakness is evident across the whole commodity complex. Investors who made a strategic allocation to commodities at their height may capitulate – posing opportunities for those who steered clear.

Wages: enter NAIRU

You know the world is a strange place when Conservatives announce “Britain needs a pay rise”, while an unpopular Chancellor is congratulated for announcing a new “National Living Wage”. Clearly, mounting political pressure to share the spoils of recovery is having an effect. And it is not just a UK phenomenon. US politicians are pushing for higher minimum wage levels, and state legislators and corporates are showing signs of responding. Walmart, which has a legendary reputation for cost control, is leading the way in raising wages for 500,000 of its lowest paid staff.

Calls for higher wages are not just the result of political processes. Rapid rates of job creation have seen unemployment rates collapse in the UK and US. Many economists believe we are very close to, or at, NAIRU: the rate at which falling unemployment begins to exert upwards pressure on inflation. Tight labour markets are leading to similar dynamics in Germany and Japan.

None of this is lost on policymakers, with central banks in the US and UK preparing the way for rate rises soon. Will a bull market built on generous liquidity conditions crumble if central banks are forced to raise rates? We suspect not, but do anticipate a pick-up in market volatility: good for those investors with some cash to invest.

EM: curtain call?

The outperformance of developed markets (DM) over emerging markets (EM) in recent years has been immense. The S&P 500 has roughly doubled since the US debt-ceiling debacle (August 2011), alongside MSCI EM’s c5% rise (USD terms). The explanatory narrative cited is: slow EM growth, weak commodity prices, and a desperate need for structural change. The fact that many of these points could just as easily be applied to DM is often ignored.

This cannot last: disenchantment with all things ’emerging’ looks to be approaching fever pitch, reminding us of the haste to be rid of ‘old economy’ stocks in H2 1999 and early 2000. We are not inclined to stick our heads above the parapet just yet, but when the liquidity-driven bull market gives way to a downturn, the best buys may well be found in EM, and in the unloved companies listed in the West that service them.

Only 15% of US Hedge Fund Managers Are Now AIFMD Compliant, Compared to 82% of European Managers

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Preqin’s latest survey of global hedge fund managers reveals that most UK- and Europe-based hedge fund managers are AIFMD-compliant: Almost all (90%) of UK-based firms, and 82% of fund managers across the rest of Europe. By contrast, there has been slow uptake among firms beyond the EU’s borders; a quarter of hedge fund managers based across Asia and Rest of World currently comply, and only 15% of firms based in the US.

A large proportion (42%) of fund managers based outside the EU do not plan to raise capital from EU investors in the near future; of this group, 59% are avoiding the region due to concerns about the AIFMD. Many managers based outside the EU are relying on investors to approach them through reverse solicitation. Even so, 38% of US managers have chosen to avoid the EU completely, with most citing compliance costs and the risks arising from uncertainty and lack of guidance surrounding the directive.

The negativity surrounding the AIFMD has reduced over the past six months, with 45% of respondents to Preqin’s June 2015 survey believing the Directive will change the hedge fund landscape for the worse, compared to 58% as of December 2014.  

Despite the majority of UK firms being compliant, not a single UK hedge fund manager surveyed expected the AIFMD to have a positive impact on their firm in the coming year. This compares to 55% of non-UK EU hedge funds that believe it will have a positive impact.  

Two-thirds of firms globally reported that the costs of complying with the AIFMD are higher than expected. No fund managers reported the costs as lower than expected.

The largest fund managers are more likely to be compliant with the AIFMD regulation; 46% of fund managers with more than $1bn in AUM are compliant, compared to 19% of those with less than $100mn. Forty percent of firms with less than $100mn in AUM will not be marketing a fund within the EU at all.  

“As we approach the 22nd July anniversary of its implementation, the AIFMD has had a varied effect on the hedge fund industry. While general negativity towards the regulation has fallen over the past six months, 45% of fund managers still believe the AIFMD will change the industry for the worse, and only 23% feel it will have a positive impact. Although in Europe most hedge funds are AIFMD-compliant, only a relatively small number of fund managers from beyond the EU’s borders have acquired compliance status. Despite having one of the highest levels of compliance (90%), not a single UK-based fund manager felt the directive will have a positive impact on their business.

Many non-EU fund managers are choosing to avoid investment from the region completely, which may result in a reduced choice of funds available for investment for EU-based investors. The leading concern hedge fund managers have about the new regulation is the increased costs of complying with the EU directive, with two thirds of those managers that have acquired the passport stating the costs have been higher than they originally expected”, said Amy Bensted, Head of Hedge Fund Products, Preqin.

Market Opportunities Related to the Water Sector Are Expected to Reach USD 1 Trillion by 2025

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RobecoSAM prevé un tirón al alza del mercado mundial del agua, que podría alcanzar el billón de dólares en 2025 — CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Steve Gatto. Market Opportunities Related to the Water Sector Are Expected to Reach USD 1 Trillion by 2025

Water is essential for life. But for years some parts of the world have taken their water supply for granted. And it’s easy to understand why. Crystal clear drinking water flows in abundance from the taps in our homes, schools, and workplaces. Many of us don’t give a second’s thought to the challenges that lie behind getting clean water to our taps or indeed how much of this finite resource we consume on a daily basis.

But for most of the world, clean drinking water is a precious commodity. Although water covers about 70% of the Earth’s surface, we must rely on annual precipitation for our actual water supply. About two-thirds of annual precipitation evaporates into the atmosphere, and another 20-25% flows into waterways and is not fit for human use. This leaves only 10% of all rainfall available for personal, agricultural and industrial use.

Moreover, precipitation is not evenly distributed: 1.2 billion people are living in areas of water scarcity. What’s more, pollution has made much of that water undrinkable and unsafe for use. Meeting the world’s increasing water needs has fast become one of the biggest challenges facing society.

But there is reason for optimism: in the past, a short- age of vital resources has driven the need to innovate, discover new materials and generate new technologies. The water challenge is no exception, and companies across the globe are seeking to find solutions to tackle the problem.

The RobecoSAM study ‘Water: the market of the future’ examines the key megatrends that are shaping the water market, and explores the investment opportunities that are arising from these trends:

Population growth
Aging infrastructure
Water quality improvements are necessary in many places
Climate change is altering the availability of water resources

Such trends generate risks and opportunities for companies and investors alike. Market opportunities related to the water sector are expected to reach USD 1 trillion by 2025. Companies that are early to respond and take steps to exploit the market opportunities associated with these water-related challenges are more likely to gain a competitive advantage and achieve commercial success.

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DNCA (Natixis): “As Long as the Outside World Does Not Decelerate Too Quickly, the Equity Rally Will Continue in Europe”

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Europe will be the only area where growth will accelerate in 2015 and, as long as the outside world does not decelerate too quickly, the equity rally will continue. That is the conviction of Igor de Maack, Fund Manager at DNCA Invest Convertibles (Natixis). In this interview with Funds Society, the fund manager explains that he has more convictions in the domestic sectors in Europe or influenced by M&A (media, construction, telecoms). And in peripheral Europe vs core. But he advices: it would be dangerous to bet on an overly strong EPS recovery: “Some countries, especially in the emerging world, will not be EPS contributors for global companies”.

How optimist are you regarding Europe’s growth, and what about European companies?

Europe will be the only area where growth will accelerate in 2015. International and European bodies have all upwardly revised their growth prospects (>1,5%). When we compare EPS expectations, Europe will be the only territory where we can expect upward revisions. Why, just simply because the level of cumulated profit of the European corporates is 30% below their pre- crisis level. Even with a weak Euro, interest rates at historically low levels and cheap oil, Europe can still grow even with demand at relatively low levels.

Will the credit boost be the main driver of the economic recovery? Which other factors?

The distribution of credit is key for recovery in any type of liberal modern economy. With the introduction of LTRO and of European Quantitative Easing, data has shown some positive momentum in credit distribution by the European banks. It means that European consumers start to believe in better times and look for new projects. The other main driver for the current recovery in Europe has to do with politics. Structural reforms must be imposed and politicians need to provide the corporate and the individuals with adequate economical and fiscal frameworks.

How could this growth scenery affect equity markets in the next few months? Do you expect a rally in European equities?

When there is economic growth which is efficiently spread across economic sectors (private and public), this growth should be reflected in firms’ profit generation. If companies can borrow at low cost in order to easily finance their organic or external growth, then one should see a strong increase in their profits and therefore attractive valuation multiples. As long as the outside world does not decelerate too quickly, one can expect the equity rally to continue.

There is much consensus about the attractiveness of European equities at the moment… Could this be dangerous?

Valuation cannot be described as very cheap but they are cheaper following the recent correction. What is dangerous is to bet on an overly strong EPS recovery. Some countries, especially in the emerging world, will not be EPS contributors for global companies. Some sectors are already overpriced including, technologies, biotechs or high growth themes, Chinese equities. Beware of these bubbles.

Do you think central banks and the ECB are contributing to generate a bubble? Should investors take advantage of this context or protect themselves against an uncertain future?

The bubbles are created and destroyed by the economic agents themselves. Central banks are just here to ensure that the monetary systems have continuity. Their intervention are some times more relevant and meaningful. Investors should therefore take profit in these periods when money is cheap. It might be an historical moment.

Do you think last corrections due to the Greek crisis could generate opportunities to buy?

Yes but it never lasts long. The Greek crisis will come back. There will be other moments to invest into riskier assets (equities) but the rule is to invest progressively.

How do you see Greece’s agreement with Europe and what do you think it could mean to the markets?

The “Agreekment” was a relief for the markets but not for the Greek people. Their government has lost the battle and the war. Restructuring the Greek debt is inevitable in the near future. Europe has refused the “Diktat” from Tsipras but will need to send a strong message to all European people.

How does the Euro contribute to the impulse of the markets and in which levels do you see it vs dollar?

Euro is weak and therefore it is a competitive advantage for the exporting companies in the Euro zone. It also creates some imported inflation. Euro is a disguised Deutsche Mark. It should normally be stronger vs dollar when we look at the fundamentals of the Euro zone.

In which companies or sectors do you have more convictions?

In the domestic sectors in Europe or sectors influenced by M&A (media, construction, telecom). Banks are cheap and are value investments even though the pressure of regulation should imply a discount. With the recovery of credit distribution, they should see more interest income in their P&L.

Core Europe or peripheral? And what about Spain?

We prefer peripheral Europe to core but good investment deals are all across Europe. Spain is an investment territory for us but we must see political clarity after the elections.

Which all ECB measures… but also with the environment of the recovery of the corporates earnings, do you think is the moment to invest more with a macro or micro approach?

Micro-approach should be the winning lottery ticket. As we are now more confident in the macro approach, stock picking shall be the way forward.

Aberdeen AM Expands its Wealth Management International Team with Paula Ojeda as Business Development Associate

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Paula Ojeda se une al equipo de Wealth Management Internacional de Aberdeen AM como associate de Desarrollo de Negocio — . Aberdeen AM Expands its Wealth Management International Team with Paula Ojeda as Business Development Associate

Paula Ojeda joins the Wealth Management International team of Aberdeen AM, as Business Development Associate. She will be based out of Aberdeen’s New York Office.

Bev Hendry, Co-Head of Aberdeen in the Americas, says that “Paula will be an invaluable member of our team and will be integral in continuing to grow our market share in the U.S. Offshore and Latin American markets. Her sales and customer experience will be instrumental as we continue to expand our business and key partnerships.”

Paula will be working alongside Head of International Wealth Management Americas, Menno de Vreeze, and Business Development Managers, Damian Zamudio and Andrea Ajila, and will be based out of Aberdeen’s New York office.

Paula Ojeda joins Aberdeen after spending time at Proximo Spirits where she worked as a Commercial Finance Manager and has ample experience in sales, customer engagement and data analysis. Prior to Proximo, she worked several years at Diageo as Business Performance and Reporting Analyst as well as a Sr. Finance Analyst.

Paula graduated from Villanova University’s School of Business with a Bachelor of Science in Finance and a Double Minor in International Business and Real Estate. She is originally from Bogota, Colombia.

PIMCO Gets a Wells Notice from SEC, a Lawsuit Could Be Coming

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PIMCO recibe un aviso de la SEC: una posible futura demanda judicial podría estar en camino — Photo: Scott S. PIMCO Gets a Wells Notice from SEC, a Lawsuit Could Be Coming

Bond giant Pacific Investment Management Co., commonly known as PIMCO, said that it is under investigation by the country’s top securities regulator over how it valued assets in one of its most popular funds aimed at small investors, according to Wall Street Journal.

The PIMCO Total Return Active ETF, an exchange-traded fund previously managed by star investor Bill Gross, has been under investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission for at least a year for allegedly artificially boosting returns from its trading of certain mortgage bonds. This investigation was first reported in September 2014.

The SEC has been looking at how PIMCO purchased and valued certain bonds in the ETF portfolio. Specifically, the SEC has been examining whether the fund bought these mortgage investments at discounted prices, but relied on higher valuations for the investments when the fund calculated the value of its holdings shortly thereafter.

PIMCO disclosed in a news release early this week that it received a so-called Wells notice from the SECconcerning the ETF, which means the agency’s staff intends to recommend a civil action against the firm related to its investigation. The notice isn’t a formal allegation of wrongdoing and won’t necessarily lead to an enforcement action.

The SEC is looking at a four-month time period between the fund’s launch on Feb. 29, 2012 and June 30, 2012, examining how PIMCO valued smaller-size positions in non-agency mortgage-backed securities purchased by the ETF during that time, according to the release. The agency is looking at the fund’s performance disclosures for that period, and at PIMCO’s compliance policies and procedures. While Bill Gross was still at PIMCO, he spent at least a day being interviewed by SEC officials. The SEC also has interviewed fund trustees and other executives at PIMCO.

In the release, the firm said that the Wells process “provides us with our opportunity to demonstrate to the SEC staff why we believe our conduct was appropriate, in keeping with industry standards and that no action should be taken. We will continue to engage with the SEC and we are confident that this matter will not affect our ability to serve our clients.”

A spokesman for the SEC declined to comment.

Natixis Global Asset Management Shows Solid Growth in Net Revenues

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During the first half of 2015, Natixis Global Asset Management has experienced a strong growth of its business, obtaining a new record of net inflows of US$ 33 billion worldwide and managing about US$ 923 billion in assets under management.

According to the latest information published about their earnings, Natixis Global Asset Management was profitable over the past first six months of this year. When comparing its first half revenues to those of 2014, it showed a solid growth in net revenues with an increase of 25% at current exchange rates. However, if constant exchange rates are used, the growth in net revenues is lower, with an increase of 8%. Moreover, the gross operating income of this first half has increased a 35% compared to last year first half.

The largest increase of net inflows came from their business in United States, with US$ 19 billion of net inflows or 57.6% of the total net inflows, which made a total in asset under management of US$ 471.8 in the United States.

The next largest bulk of net inflow came from Europe, where its net inflows totaled US$ 12 billion, making a total in asset under management of US$ 417.7 billion for the European region.

In Asia, the net inflows totaled US$ 0.8 billion, while the Asian assets under management made a whole sum of US$ 8.2 billion. The rest of net inflows, US$ 1.2 billion approximately, were not specifically assigned to any region, although the rest of asset under management, US$ 6.6 billion were attributed to the private equity division.

Lastly, it should be highlighted that there were strong flows in fixed-income for American and European affiliates with US$ 22 billion in net new money.

GGM Capital Launches GGM Multistrategy, an IT-Centric Alternative Fund

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GGM Capital lanza GGM Multistrategy, un fondo alternativo centrado en tecnologías de la información — Photo: JImmyReu, Flickr, Creative Commons. GGM Capital Launches GGM Multistrategy, an IT-Centric Alternative Fund

GGM Capital, the investment banking IT focused boutique, is launching its new Technology-centric, open-ended fund under the umbrella of a Luxembourg SICAV-SIF. This new fund will have a target size above €50.0m and will invest in a diversified portfolio of equities, private equity/venture capital funds and corporate debt.

The objective is to achieve strong capital appreciation by investing in a diversified set of asset classes with various maturity levels, yields and risk profiles.

The asset allocation is outlined as follows: the equity portfolio, representing a majority of the invested assets at all times, will be composed of equities of technology companies listed in key financial markets such as NASDAQ, NYSE, LSE, Euronext and Xetra. For this purpose, GGM Capital will leverage on its extensive proprietary trading experience and in particular its strong track record developing successful intraday trading and short term swing strategies.

GGM Multistrategy will invest a smaller part of its assets under management in less liquid instruments, be it either investment funds or corporate debt, with generally a hold to maturity strategy. The objective of this part of the portfolio is to provide foreseeable returns with are not correlated with the equity portion of the portfolio.

GGM Capital will leverage of the combined 40+ years experience in capital markets of David Moix, Gabriel Padilla and Guillermo G. Morales as well as its positive track record achieved by GGM Capital managing venture capital investments in the technology space.

Guillermo G. Morales Lopez, Executive Chairman of GGM Capital said: “I’m excited to offer our investors a new innovative instrument leveraging on our experience and track record. We had been working hard in building up this amazing strategy during the last years and now we are pleased to offer this one of a kind investment opportunity to the market”.

Gabriel Padilla, Partner of GGM Capital added: “Our investors have asked us to develop an open-ended, diversified product to deepen their investment relationship with us. I believe we now have the right product for this purpose.”

Mirae Asset Global Investments Expands U.S. Mutual Fund Sales Team

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Mirae Asset Global Investments (USA) LLC, or Mirae Asset USA, the investment advisor for the Mirae Asset Discovery Funds, has announced that it has hired four new wholesalers to help drive mutual fund growth in the United States, according to PR Newswire.

Mirae Asset USA manages over US$ 5.3 billion in equity and fixed income assets. Its mutual fund products, such as the Emerging Markets Great Consumer Fund and the Asia Great Consumer Fund, focus on Asia-centric strategies that leverage Mirae Asset USA’s emerging market heritage and on-the-ground presence to deliver high-conviction portfolios and quality long-term performance for investors in the United States.

“At Mirae Asset USA, we add more to our advisor relationships by providing them with a consultative sales process and resource for emerging markets expertise that the advisory community can rely upon,” said John Capeci, Head of National Accounts and Mutual Fund Sales at Mirae Asset USA. “Our new wholesalers are instrumental in ensuring we maintain that standard as well as achieve our growth objectives in the U.S. through increased sales and distribution.”

Additions to the mutual fund sales team include:

Adam Young joins as a Regional Vice President and Emerging Markets Specialist for Texas and Oklahoma. Before joining Mirae Asset USA, he provided advisor coverage for South Texas and Southern California as an Internal Sales Consultant at Invesco. Mr. Young is a graduate of the University of Houston and is a Certified Financial Planner.

Brian Malizia joins as a Regional Vice President and Emerging Markets Specialist for Illinois, Wisconsin and Indiana. Mr. Malizia joins Mirae Asset USA from Alpine Woods Capital Investors, where he was responsible for covering financial advisory clients in the greater Chicago area. He is a graduate of Xavier University.

Patrick Przybylowski joins as an Internal Wholesaler for Northern California and New Jersey. Most recently Mr. Przybylowski worked as an Internal Wholesaler for KBS Capital Markets Group LLC and has seven years of industry experience. He is a graduate of Franklin and Marshall College.

Timothy Spelman joins as an Internal Wholesaler for the New York Metro area and Southwest region. Mr. Spelman has nine years of industry experience and previously served as an Associate Sales Director at Third Avenue Management. He is a graduate of The Catholic University of America.

The external wholesalers report to John Capeci. The internal wholesalers report to John Whitaker, Regional Vice President and Emerging Markets Specialist for Ohio and Michigan, who adds to his responsibilities the role of Sales Desk Manager for the firm’s newly-formed internal sales desk.

These hires add to the recent additions to the U.S. sales team of Tony Matheson, who serves as Regional Vice President and Emerging Markets Specialist for Northern California, Washington, Oregon and Northern Nevada, William Clinton, who serves as Regional Vice President and Emerging Markets Specialist for New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Delaware, and Christopher Begbie, who serves as the Regional Vice President and Emerging Markets Specialist for Maryland, Virginia and North Carolina.

Mirae Asset USA’s sales team now consists of 10 external wholesalers, three internal wholesales and one client portfolio manager.

Gilbert Addeo Appointed Chief Operating Officer of Investment Placement Group

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Investment Placement Group (IPG) has announced that industry veteran Gilbert “Gil” Addeo has been appointed Chief Operating Officer and Head of Business Development. Mr. Addeo, will be based in San Diego and report directly to Mr. Adolfo Gonzalez-Rubio, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of IPG.

With over 20 years of experience in the financial services industry, Mr. Addeo will be an integral member of IPG’s executive leadership team with direct oversight of compliance, operations, trading, private banking, finance, information technology and business development.

Mr. Addeo most recently served as a Director at Pershing LLC, a BNY Mellon Company, where he oversaw the international Relationship Management teams. Prior to that, Mr. Addeo served as the Head of Business Development and Relationship Management at Bear Stearns Clearing Corp.

Mr. Gonzalez-Rubio commented, “We are very happy to have Gil become part of the IPG team. Having known Gil for many years, I can say that he is a talented leader and brings a lot of expertise to IPG. I look forward to working with Gil and I am confident with his leadership we can achieve our goals of attracting new advisors to our platform.”

Mr. Addeo commented, “I am very excited to become part of the IPG team. IPG is a great organization with a 30 plus year history of success and clear vision of growth in both international and domestic markets. IPG has all the tools from dynamic global trading in Equites, Fixed Income options and commodities, partnerships with the top clearing and custody platforms in the industry and access to various investment products for our clients. This is the perfect environment for advisors looking to gain independence with a fully developed platform to support them. I look forward to the opportunities ahead.”