Global Growth Forecasts Slashed Dramatically Due to U.S. Trade War

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Fitch Ratings has just published a damning report outlining the consequences of the trade war launched by the U.S. government: it will reduce growth in both the U.S. and globally, drive up inflation in the U.S., and delay interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

“We have cut our U.S. growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1% to 1.7% in the December 2024 Global Economic Outlook (GEO), as well as our 2026 forecast from 1.7% to 1.5%. These rates are well below trend and lower than the nearly 3% annual growth seen in 2023 and 2024,” the note states.

Fiscal easing in China and Germany will cushion the impact of increased U.S. import tariffs, but growth in the eurozone this year will still fall well short of what was forecast in December. Mexico and Canada will experience technical recessions given the scale of their trade exposure to the U.S., prompting the ratings agency to cut their 2025 annual forecasts by 1.1 and 0.7 percentage points, respectively.

“We forecast that global growth will slow to 2.3% this year, well below trend and down from 2.9% in 2024. This 0.3 percentage point downward revision reflects widespread reductions across developed and emerging economies. Growth will remain weak at 2.2% in 2026,” Fitch adds.

The magnitude, speed, and breadth of U.S. tariff hike announcements since January are alarming, the firm notes. The effective tariff rate (ETR) in the U.S. has already risen from 2.3% in 2024 to 8.5% and is likely to continue increasing: “Our latest economic forecasts assume an ETR of 15% will be imposed on Europe, Canada, Mexico, and other countries in 2025, and 35% on China. This will raise the U.S. ETR to 18% this year, before moderating to 16% next year, as the ETR for Canada and Mexico falls to 10%. This would be the highest rate in 90 years.”

“There is enormous uncertainty surrounding the extent of U.S. measures, and our assumptions could be too severe. However, there are also risks of a greater tariff shock, including an escalation of the global trade war. In addition, the U.S. government has set an import substitution agenda — aimed at boosting U.S. manufacturing and reducing the trade deficit — which it believes can be achieved through higher tariffs,” the note adds.

The tariff hikes will lead to higher consumer prices in the U.S., lower real wages, and increased business costs, while rising political uncertainty will negatively affect business investment. Retaliation will hit U.S. exporters. Export-oriented global manufacturers in East Asia and Europe will also be affected. Models suggest the tariff increases will reduce GDP by around one percentage point in the U.S., China, and Europe by 2026.

The recent implementation of fiscal stimulus in Germany will greatly help cushion the blow and allow its economy to moderately recover in 2026. More aggressive policy easing will also help offset the impact in China. Since the tariff impact is estimated to add 1 percentage point to short-term inflation in the U.S., Fitch believes the Fed will delay further easing until the fourth quarter of 2025. Currently, it forecasts only one rate cut this year, followed by three more in 2026 as the economy slows and tariff levels stabilize.

UBS AM Launches Its First Two Nasdaq-100 ETFs

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UBS Asset Management (UBS AM) has announced the launch of two new UCITS ETFs that offer exposure to the Nasdaq-100 Notional and Nasdaq-100 Sustainable ESG Select Notional indices. According to Clemens Reuter, Head ETF & Index Fund Client Coverage, UBS Asset Management, “these are the first two Nasdaq-100 ETFs we are launching, giving clients the option to choose between the iconic index and the sustainable version of the same benchmark.”

Regarding the funds, they state that the UBS ETF (IE) Nasdaq-100 UCITS ETF passively replicates the Nasdaq-100 Notional Index, which is composed of the 100 largest U.S. and international non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market, based on market capitalization. The index includes companies from various sectors such as computer hardware and software, telecommunications, retail/wholesale, and biotechnology. The manager clarifies that the fund is aligned with Art. 6 under SFDR and is physically replicated.

Meanwhile, the UBS ETF (IE) Nasdaq-100 ESG Enhanced UCITS ETF passively replicates the Nasdaq-100 Sustainable ESG Select Notional Index, which is derived from the Nasdaq-100 Notional Index. Companies are evaluated and weighted based on their business activities, controversies, and ESG risk ratings. Companies identified by Morningstar Sustainalytics as having an ESG risk rating score of 40 or higher, or as involved in specific business activities, are not eligible for inclusion in the index. The ESG risk rating score indicates the company’s total unmanaged risk and is classified into five risk levels: negligible (0–10); low (10–20); medium (20–30); high (30–40); and severe (40+).

In addition, the ESG risk score of the index must be 10% lower than that of the parent index at each semi-annual review. A lower index-weighted ESG risk score means lower ESG risk. The fund is physically replicated and aligned with Art. 8 under SFDR.

According to the manager, the UBS ETF (IE) Nasdaq-100 UCITS ETF will be listed on SIX Swiss Exchange, XETRA, and London Stock Exchange, while the UBS ETF (IE) Nasdaq-100 ESG Enhanced UCITS ETF will be listed on SIX Swiss Exchange and XETRA.

Ocorian Strengthens Its U.S. Team and Appoints Amy Meza as Director of Fund Accounting

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Ocorian, a provider of services to asset managers, has appointed Amy Meza as Director of Fund Accounting, strengthening its Fund Services team in the United States.

Based in Dallas, she will report to Lynne Westbrook, Head of Fund Services, adding further experience and expertise to Ocorian’s expansion in the U.S. following the acquisition of EdgePoint Fund Services in December of last year, according to the company’s statement.

Meza was previously Vice President of Financial Control at Zip Co Limited and CFO at Direct Access Capital, and she brings extensive experience in global financial services, private equity, treasury management, and change management. She began her career at Deloitte and also served at JP Morgan Chase as Fund Accounting Manager and at SS&C Technologies as Associate Director of Fund Accounting.

“The appointment of Amy brings additional experience and knowledge to Ocorian, and she will make a significant contribution as we continue to build our business in the U.S.,” said Lynne Westbrook.

For her part, Amy Meza added: “Ocorian is ambitious in growing its U.S. business, which makes this an exciting time to join, and I’m looking forward to supporting colleagues and clients in helping achieve our expansion plans.”

Ocorian first entered the U.S. market in 2021 with the acquisition of Emphasys Technologies, based in Philadelphia. Since then, the company has been enhancing its onshore capabilities, making key hires, and expanding its service offering to support its growing client base, recently announcing the acquisition of EdgePoint in Dallas, Texas. Through its operations in New York, the company provides fund managers, private clients, and corporates with access to fund structuring and domiciliation hubs around the world—from Europe and the Middle East to the Caribbean, Latin America, Africa, and Asia-Pacific.

Wealth Managers Turn to AI and Private Assets to Boost Their Business

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For wealth managers, growth has been strong over the past five years, with a global increase of 20% in assets under management (AuM). According to the Wealth Industry Survey by Natixis IM, the pursuit of growth is even greater this year, as firms project an average increase of 13.7% in wealth just in 2025. However, given geopolitical changes, economic uncertainty, and accelerated technological advances, investment leaders know that meeting these expectations will not be an easy task.

Geopolitics and Inflation: Key Concerns

The results show that while 73% are optimistic about market prospects in 2025, macroeconomic volatility remains a major concern. 38% of respondents cite new geopolitical conflicts as their main economic concern, closely followed by inflation, with 37% of respondents fearing that it may resurge under Trump’s policies. Additionally, 66% anticipate only moderate interest rate cuts in their regions.

Despite these concerns, 68% of analysts state that they will not adjust their return expectations for 2025, as wealth managers are implementing strategies for their businesses, the market, and most importantly, their clients’ portfolios, with the aim of delivering results.

In addition to new geopolitical conflicts and inflation, respondents also identified other concerns for 2025. 34% point to the escalation of current wars, and another 34% highlight U.S.-China relations. Lastly, 27% underscore the tech bubble as another factor to consider.

With this in mind, wealth managers are carefully considering how geopolitical turbulence and persistent inflation will impact the macroeconomic environment. Half of the respondents forecast a soft landing for their region’s economy, with the strongest sentiment in Asia (68%) and the U.S. (58%). However, this drops to 46% in Europe and just 37% in the U.K. Additionally, 61% are concerned about stagflation prospects in Europe.

Regarding the specific impacts of the U.S. elections on the economic outlook, two-thirds globally are concerned about the possibility of a trade war. However, wealth managers also see opportunities on the horizon, as 64% believe that the regulatory changes proposed by the Trump administration will drive the development of innovative investment products.

In addition, two-thirds believe that the proposed tax cuts will drive a sustained market rally. Taking all of this into account, 57% globally say that, in light of the U.S. election outcome, clients are more willing to take on risk, with the potential to disrupt the cash accumulation pattern investors have maintained since central banks began raising rates.

The Investment Potential of AI

After witnessing the rapid development of generative AI models, 79% of surveyed wealth managers say that AI has the potential to accelerate profit growth over the next 10 years. With this in mind, firms are looking to leverage the benefits of the new technology in three key areas: tapping into the investment potential of AI, implementing AI to improve their internal investment process, and using AI to optimize business operations and customer service.

69% of respondents say that AI will improve the investment process by helping them uncover hidden opportunities, and another 62% say that AI is becoming an essential tool for assessing market risks. In fact, the potential is so significant that 58% say that companies that do not integrate AI will become obsolete.

With this in mind, 58% say their company has already implemented AI tools in their investment process. The highest concentration of early adopters is found among wealth management firms in Germany (72%), France (69%), and Switzerland (64%).

Beyond investment opportunities and portfolio management applications, wealth managers also anticipate that AI will impact the service side of the business. Overall, 77% say that AI will help them meet their growth goals by integrating a wider range of services. However, the technology can be a double-edged sword, as 52% also fear that AI is helping turn automated advice into a real competitive threat.

“Wealth managers face a wide range of challenges in 2025, from educating their clients on the benefits of holding private investments to finding the best ways to integrate AI into their investment and business processes. However, despite potential obstacles, wealth managers are confident that they can harness disruptive forces to unlock new opportunities and meet the AUM growth goals they need to achieve in 2025,” says Cecile Mariani, Head of Global Financial Institutions at Natixis IM.

Appetite for Private Assets Continues to Grow

Technology may have the potential to transform the industry, but firms face more immediate challenges in meeting clients’ investment preferences and return expectations.

Wealth managers are exploring a wider range of vehicles and asset classes to meet their clients’ needs. Globally, portfolios now consist of 88% public assets and 12% private assets, a ratio that is likely to shift as focus on private assets increases. Additionally, 48% state that meeting the demand for unlisted assets will be a critical factor in their growth plans.

However, private asset allocation is not without its challenges. 26% of respondents consider access to these assets—or lack thereof—a threat to their business. Despite this, new product structures are helping to ease this pressure, with 66% noting that private asset vehicles accessible to retail investors improve diversification.

The next challenge will be financial education, as 42% believe that a lack of understanding about liquidity is a barrier to incorporating private assets into client portfolios. Nevertheless, the lack of liquidity can also work in favor of some investors, given that 75% of wealth managers globally say that the long-term nature of retirement savings makes investment in private assets a sound strategy.

Overall, 92% plan to increase (50%) or maintain (42%) their private credit offerings, and similarly, 91% plan to increase (50%) or maintain (41%) their private equity investments on their platforms. Few among the respondents see this changing, as 63% say that there is still a significant difference in returns between private and public markets. Additionally, 69% say that despite high valuations, they believe private assets offer good long-term value.

The 2025 Wealth Management Industry Survey by Natixis Investment Managers gathers the views of 520 investment professionals responsible for managing investment platforms and client assets across 20 countries.

More Than 2,500 Industry Professionals Experienced Future Proof Citywide in Miami Beach

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Future Proof Miami 2500 professionals
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Under the slogan “Forging the New Frontier of Investing,” more than 2,500 industry professionals from 13 countries flooded Miami Beach last week and experienced Future Proof Citywide, a four-day event that explored new investment paradigms in a dynamic and collaborative environment, aimed at the investment community across both public and private markets.

Financial advisors, RIAs, Family Offices, institutional investors, ultra-high-net-worth (UHNW) investors, wealth management and private equity executives, among other industry members, attended top-tier talks and held both one-on-one and group meetings—plus the added bonus of 24-hour networking opportunities.

Directly in front of the beach, next to Lummus Park, between 6th and 10th Streets, industry professionals took over more than 25 hotels and a significant portion of the city’s iconic South Beach, in the largest event for the wealth and investment management industry.

“We reinvented the concept of wealth management conferences when we launched the Future Proof Festival in Huntington Beach in 2022,” explained Matt Middleton, founder and CEO of Future Proof. With the new edition in Miami, the company expanded the concept into the investment management space and incorporated private markets.

“Conferences usually focus exclusively on specific investor audiences, asset classes, or investment vehicles, which leads to fragmentation. With Future Proof Citywide, we broke down barriers to bring together the entire investment management ecosystem: allocators, wealth managers, fund managers, fintechs, financial service providers, and more,” added.

The thematic agenda included talks — featuring C-level speakers — on the growing integration of public and private markets, emerging market trends and their implications for portfolio construction, the mindset of the modern investor, talent and leadership, and tech-driven transformation, among other topics.

As part of the experiences, Future Proof Citywide offered, for example, the opportunity to join Robert Frank, CNBC Wealth editor, and the Inside Wealth team for an exclusive cocktail at the iconic Villa Casa Casuarina, the former Versace Mansion. Attendees could also enjoy live rock concerts, participate in a Wealthtech executive breakfast, and attend welcome receptions in the evenings or on the beach, among many other options.

$9.6 trillion in assets under management (AUM) were represented at Citywide, according to information shared by the organizing company.

“There May Be a Rally in Brazilian Stocks This Year Driven by the 2026 Elections”

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Poppe is responsible for the strategy of the BNY Mellon Brazil Equity Fund, a fund launched in 2017 that invests in shares of the South American giant, with the MSCI Brazil 10/40 NR Index as its benchmark. The strategy manages over $600 million in AUM.

The portfolio manager’s view is that Brazil is once again a “hard topic.” The macroeconomic scenario includes a fiscal deficit, inflation, and slowing growth.

“Brazil is not growing as much as one would like,” he acknowledged. “There is a lack of credibility in the government, the fiscal deficit has increased, inflation is rising, and this year and next, the country’s economy will be affected — but there won’t be a recession,” he described.

Indeed, Brazil’s CPI accelerated in February, climbing five-tenths to 1.3%, reaching 5.06% annually. It was the largest increase in the consumer price index for a February since 2003, and annual inflation stood at its highest level since September 2023. This price surge contrasts with the economic slowdown, and the Central Bank resumed its interest rate hiking cycle to try to control inflation.

Poppe emphasized the importance of being aware of the Brazilian economic context as investors, but encouraged those seeking exposure to the Brazilian equity market to do so through active and disciplined management.

Brazil, as the largest economy in Latin America, offers a dynamic market with leading companies in strategic sectors such as consumer goods, energy, financial services, and technology. The fund’s strategy aims to capture opportunities in companies “with solid fundamentals, sustainable growth, and competitive advantages, combining diversification with rigorous risk control.”

Ahead of the Next Economic Cycle

The PM forecasts that Brazil will grow by 1.5% in 2025, and between 1% and 1.5% in 2026. In 2024, Brazil’s GDP grew by 3.4%. “The scenario is difficult for companies, but at the same time, stocks have dropped so much, are so cheap, that we see an opportunity for international investors,” he said.

Now then… the annual yield on a Brazilian bond investment in local currency is around 14%, so the big question for investors — even posed by Poppe himself during his conversation with Funds Society — is “when” to enter stocks.

“The macro scenario has turned more negative,” he explained. “Many investors are comfortable investing in bonds. However, from here on, we see flows into equities. I’d say that within the next 6 to 9 months, Brazilian equities could experience a rally. We expect interest rates to come down again, which is why we have increased our exposure to discretionary consumption. The fund is already prepared for the next economic cycle,” he assured.

Poppe noted that over the past 2 years, the fund leaned into defensive sectors, such as food producers, which are very strong in Brazil and benefit from the country’s power as a commodity producer.

The fund offers diversified exposure, with an overweight in food producers and exporting companies such as Embraer. It also has exposure to telecom and utilities, since “they offer a lot of yield.”

Balancing Cyclical and Defensive Sectors

With an approach that combines fundamental and quantitative analysis, the strategy seeks to identify undervalued companies with solid business models, prioritizing those with high cash flow generation, sustainable competitive advantages, and a clear long-term growth strategy. The portfolio consists of 25 to 40 stocks, allowing for a detailed focus on each investment without losing diversification. It maintains a balance between cyclical and defensive sectors, combining high-growth industries such as technology and consumer with traditionally more stable sectors such as energy and utilities, which helps reduce volatility.

Regarding Petrobras, Poppe said, “The company is doing very well, but the fund hasn’t invested in its shares for two years. Looking ahead, investors will be entering the cyclical equities sector, where we are already positioned,” he emphasized.

The portfolio manager also mentioned that Brazilian investors are currently at their lowest level of exposure to local equities, but said this dynamic will change in the coming months. “For now, investors are choosing to buy bonds. It’s not that money will move quickly into equities; it will shift gradually. I’m a firm believer that investing long-term and actively pays off more, even when investing in the small and mid-cap sector.”

In 2024, the BNY Mellon Brazil Equity Fund had a negative return of 24.77%; in 2023, the fund returned nearly 25%. As of March 17, 2025, the fund had accumulated a year-to-date return of 10.50%.

ACP Group Appoints Juan Medina as Vice President in Miami

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Juan Medina ACP Group appointment
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The Miami-based financial services group ACP has appointed Juan Medina as Vice President, according to a statement Medina made on his LinkedIn profile.

“I’m pleased to announce that I will be taking on a new role as Vice President at ACP Group!” he wrote.

The firm, focused on Private Banking, Wealth Management, Investment Banking, and Alternative Investments, also has a presence in New York, Dallas, Buenos Aires, Lima, Santiago, and Montevideo.

Medina joins from REL Capital Advisors, where he served as Director of Business Development, and brings over 20 years of experience. He worked for nearly four years at Banorte Securities International as Chief Investment Officer in Houston; he was also Investment Vice President at Aplus Capital and International Financial Advisor Associate at Morgan Stanley, also in Houston. Previously, in his home country of Colombia, he served for four years as CFO of John Restrepo A. y Cia, and also held roles at Promotora, HRA Uniquímica, Bancolombia, and Corporación Tecnnova.

Medina holds a Bachelor’s degree in Business Administration from Universidad EAFIT in Medellín, Colombia, and a Master’s in Financial Markets from the Illinois Institute of Technology. He also holds the CFA international certification, is a member of the CFA Association of Houston, and has FINRA licenses Series 7, 66, and 24.

Risk of a Pullback in Foreign Capital in the S&P 500 Is Rising

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S&P 500 foreign capital risk
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As expected from an alternative asset manager, Apollo publishes a report that plays on the nerves of traditional investors and outlines what could happen if, due to volatility, there were a significant pullback of foreign capital in the S&P 500.

“There have been significant inflows of foreign capital into U.S. equity markets, and foreign investors now have a significant overweight in U.S. equities,” the firm said in a press release.

In 2024, 60% of holdings in U.S. equities belong to foreign investors, whereas this figure was 33% in 2010. This structural shift is particularly concentrated in this asset class.


Apollo believes that, when adding the depreciation of the dollar and the continued overvaluation of the Magnificent Seven, the risks of a decline in the S&P 500 as a result of foreign capital selling are significant.

Industry Professionals Support the New Leadership of the SEC but Await Action on Digital Assets

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The leadership change at the SEC, following the resignation of Gary Gensler and the appointment of Mark Uyeda as acting chairman, could drive increased institutional investment in the sector, according to a new global study by Nickel Digital Asset Management. The study also revealed that the majority of institutional investors and wealth managers view the changes regarding digital asset market regulation with great satisfaction, although they also expect further action.

94% of respondents said they believe institutional investor sentiment will become more positive, with 24% indicating it will be significantly more favorable. Meanwhile, 89% said the resignation of former SEC Chairman Gary Gensler will have a positive impact on the sector, and 91% believe the resignation is positive for the future regulatory environment of the market.

The leadership change, with the appointment of Mark Uyeda as acting chairman, along with Donald Trump’s naming of David Sacks as head of Artificial Intelligence and crypto, could help boost institutional investment in the sector. 90% of respondents said they expect a more crypto-friendly stance from the new leadership.

Anatoly Crachilov, CEO and founding partner of Nickel Digital, stated that “the changing of the guard at the SEC is seen as positive for future regulatory clarity and is expected to drive institutional investment in the sector.”

“Digital asset regulation was a key part of the U.S. presidential election, and Donald Trump’s explicit promise to fire Gary Gensler on day one in office clearly signaled the direction forward,” he added.

The study was conducted with institutional investors and wealth managers across the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Switzerland, Singapore, Brazil, and the United Arab Emirates, representing organizations that collectively manage around $1.1 trillion in assets. Nickel, headquartered in London, is Europe’s leading digital asset hedge fund manager and was founded by former Bankers Trust, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan alumni.

Vanguard Appoints Adriana Rangel as Head of Distribution for Latin America

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Vanguard appoints Adriana Rangel
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Vanguard has announced the promotion of Adriana Rangel to Head of Distribution for Latin America.

In her new role, the firm stated in a press release, Rangel will be responsible for the Institutional and Wealth Management distribution teams across Mexico, South America, Central America and the Caribbean, and US Offshore.

This consolidation of distribution teams aims to foster greater synergies across the region, the firm added.

Rangel joined Vanguard Mexico in 2019 and most recently served as Head of Institutional Sales for Latin America. The company described her role as “instrumental in strengthening the pension ecosystem in the region,” by developing local retirement solutions, enhancing investment alternatives for healthy global diversification, and raising the firm’s profile.

She is also a co-founder of Mujeres en Finanzas, an organization promoting the development and empowerment of women in the financial sector. Rangel brings extensive experience in providing investment solutions to institutions such as Afores, AFPs, Personal Retirement Plan Providers, Asset Managers, and Insurance Companies.

She holds a degree in Economics from the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM) and recently earned her MBA from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University.

“Since her arrival, Adriana has been fundamental to Vanguard’s growth in the region, positioning us as one of the leading global asset managers in the market. I am confident that under her leadership, extensive experience, and deep understanding of our clients’ needs, we will continue to enhance our value proposition and services, offering all investors the best chances of success,” said Juan Hernández, Head of Latin America, in the press release.

Hernández also took the opportunity to thank outgoing executive Pablo Bernal – recently appointed Country Head for Vanguard Spain – for his leadership and achievements in the region over the past eight years.

Rangel commented: “I am very proud and excited about the challenge this new role represents. Our team has built very strong relationships across the region, and we want to deliver the best investment solutions. We will optimize our client coverage so that, through our extraordinary team, we can change the way Latin America invests.”