CEO confidence surged in the first quarter of 2025, reaching its highest level in three years. The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence, in collaboration with The Business Council, increased by 9 points to 60, a shift from the cautious optimism seen throughout 2024. For the first time since early 2022, the measure exceeded 50, signaling a positive outlook among CEOs. A total of 134 CEOs participated in the survey, which was conducted from January 27 to February 10.
“All components of the Measure improved, as CEOs were substantially more optimistic about current economic conditions as well as about future economic conditions – both overall and their own industries,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators, The Conference Board.
Regarding employment, 73% of CEOs indicated they planned to maintain or grow their workforce over the next 12 months, unchanged from the previous quarter. However, the share of CEOs expecting to expand their workforce fell to 32%, down from 40% in Q4, while 41% planned to keep their workforce steady, up from 34%. Additionally, 27% of CEOs anticipated reducing their workforce, a slight increase from the previous quarter.
“Compared to Q4 2024, fewer CEOs ranked cyber threats, regulatory uncertainty, financial and economic risks, and supply chain disruptions as high-impact risks,” said Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., Vice Chairman of The Business Council and Chair Emeritus of The Conference Board.
On the wage front, 71% of CEOs plan to raise salaries by 3% or more, up from 63% last quarter. Of those, 60% expect to increase wages by 3.0 – 3.9%, up from 48%. Work arrangements continued to evolve, with the most common model being 3-4 days in the office. The share of CEOs planning to shift away from remote work toward in-office schedules in the next 12-18 months has increased.
CEOs’ assessment of general economic conditions was significantly more positive in Q1 2025. 44% of CEOs reported that economic conditions were better than six months ago, up from just 20% in Q4. Only 11% said conditions were worse, a sharp drop from 30% last quarter. The outlook for their industries was also improved with 37% reporting better conditions, up from 21%.
The increase in CEO confidence was also reflected in capital spending. While 54% of CEOs indicated no changes to their plans, 33% in Q4. Similarly, 52% expect conditions in their own industries to improve, up from 31%.
The first quarter of 2025 marks a significant shift in CEO sentiment, with widespread optimism about the economy, industries, and future growth prospects.
